thefinalfence

At 1.30 pm on Tuesday 11^th March  ‘the roar’ will sound out for the start of the first race of the 2014 Festival

The first day has often been one of the bigger ones for me for taking a view but this year it might well be the quietest of the 4 with some tough races and value hard to pinpoint

Nevertheless, here goes

130 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Generally ¼ odds 123 but some books offer 1234 (and check out Paddy Power’s money back offer if you finish 2^nd,3^rd or 4^th for sure!)

I find myself having question marks over the first few in the betting here

Irving slipped under the radar a bit earlier in the season but has progressed into the form leader coming into this after a very impressive win last time out at Kempton. The downsides are that his best form is on softer ground and most pertinently over right handed tracks. An undulating left hand course now faces him and with no form on such a circuit, I’d need a bit more than 3/1 to be tempted.

The Mullins stable come next in betting with Vautour (might need more of a trip and more experience) and Wicklow Brave (didn’t impress enough with jumping technique last time out). (If either or both do exceeb themsleves expect to see money for Lieutenant Colonle in Wednesday’s Neptune

And so I look for the value outsiders instead. I don’t include the Henderson pair here despite the trainer’s good record in this race – Vaniteux’s price is nothing to do with form and just about recent stable homework – Josses Hill has had a recent setback and not convinced that a stiff 2 miles is for him anyway.

The shortlist comprises Gilgamboa, The Liquidator, Un Ace and Three Kingdoms

( I would dearly love to see Wilde Blue Yonder win as I know one of the owners – but it’s against my religion to back anything that has FF next to its form – hope it runs well though!)

Gilgamboa. I can remember only Redundant Pal trying the Boylesports Hurdle– Supreme double in recent times, and he managed 5^th in 1989. He looks a progressive sort and we know he operates at a good pace in a big field. 12/1 probably about right but can see him shortening with the McCoy factor.

The Liquidator boasts something quite rare in this field : course form!. An impressive win here in November and a solid display in last season’s Champion bumper ( statistically one of the best guides for this race), he was almost fav for this before a poor display at Kempton in January. It seemed still 50-50 he would run here last week but have to assume he’s showing something again at home now he is the sole representative from his stable’s strong novice team. A big player if back to his best.

Un Ace doesn’t have the form to match these but he could be called the winner some way out at Doncaster last time and seems to want decent ground –there would be worse 50/1 shots

The one who shouldn’t be 50/1 though is Three Kingdoms. His form is all largely handicaps but the form of the one he ran at on this course before Christmas should not be sniffed at – giving weight to Quick Jack and Deep Trouble who now have far higher marks. He has also beaten the highly progressive Vibrato Valtat on ground that probably wasn’t ideal. That form isn’t reprentative of his price here ( a quick glance at Racing Post ratings will confirm that) and he has to be a bet

 

Recommendations

0.5 pts ew The Liquidator 20/1 (365,888, Skybet taking ¼ 1234)

0.5 pts ew Three Kingdoms 40/1 or better (888 offer 50/1 ¼ 1234 if you can get it)

Oddsscheker prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-11-cheltenham/13:30/winner

 

 

2.05 Arkle Trophy

I don’t remember a year I didn’t fancy anything here but find 2014 a bit of a minefield with no value appearing.

Champagne Fever looks the one who should be the best chaser but experience lacking – he may get the lead to himself here though which well help.

Expect Trifolium (needs softer ground?) and Rock on Ruby (only form in 2 and 3 runner races so experience a huge problem) to be trying to keep early tabs on him

Grandouet may have been best of these over hurdles but just doesn’t look as if he’s transferred all of that ability to chasing yet.

Dodging Bullets would be my idea of the safest ew bet – ground will suit but have this nagging feeling he will find one too good

Valdez is out of his depth to me

 

Verdict : No single bet but see Champion hurdle

 

2.40 Baylis and Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase (or the ‘Ritz Club’ for those of us with penchant for the older titles)

¼ odds 1-2-3-4 generally available

A big race to follow stats for me which tell us that the vast majority of winners carried less than 11st (this takes out the top 15 runners in one fell swoop) and should be aged less than 11 (bye bye to the likely to be gambled Alfie Sherrin and Fruity O’ Rooney)

If we apply form at previous Festivals now, the standout is Time For Rupert (one time RSA fav and runner up to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle).

Injury has seen him slip from the top flight but so has his handicap mark and he showed his first return to form last time out at Doncaster. This course has always suited him very well and he’s fancied to reagins some of his former glories

Solix is another that interests me right at the bottom of the weights. He too has previous Festival form running 5^th in the 2011 Coral Cup off a 23lb higher mark than he has tomorrow. The suspicion was he had lost his form but in the Skybet Chase in January he had many in trouble on the home turn until the soft ground told and he finished 4^th. Better ground will undoubtedly help him .He finished placed at Sandown only last Friday when soft ground/rh track combination didn’t suit at all – there is a chance of course this may come too soon after that but at the price it’s a chance worth taking.

Muldoon’s Picnic is the final selection here – no course form, just a belief that he could be reasonably treated now that the ground is getting better once more

Recommendations:

1pt ew Time For Rupert 16/1 (general)

0.5 pts ew Solix 50/1 (BetVictor, Stan James, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook)

0.5 pts ew Muldoons Picnic 33/1 (general)

 

Oddschecker link here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-11-cheltenham/14:40/winner

 

3.20 Champion Hurdle

¼ odds 123 generally offered – a good concession as there are just 4 main protagonists – avoid firm offering 1/5^th for ew

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-11-cheltenham/14:05/winner

The piece de resistance of day one! I really would have liked to have seen Annie Power and Un De Sceaux take their chances here but we still have a stellar field as Hurricane Fly attempts a 3^rd win in the event.

The inclusion of Captain Cee Bee in the field as a pacemaker is a blessed relief. His stablemate, My Tent or Yours shouldn’t have any problems with a slow early pace now, and The New One won’t have to make the running

It all makes for a fairly run event and hopefully no excuses. I am of the opinion that Hurricane Fly’s best form is at Leopardstown rather than here (though not by a huge amount), and I don’t back 5yos in this race so Our Conor is not for me (maybe next year)

There appears very little between The New One and My Tent or Yours so at prices marginal preference is for My Tent or Yours as the ew bet at 4/1 or more

Not quite enough to merit a recommendation but an ew double with Dodging Bullets in the Arkle is half tempting

I don’t foresee a winner outside of the main 4 – not the ideal course for Jezki for me and Melodic Rendezvous needed very soft ground to have any chance of an upset

 

Verdict:

Going for the place angle here with

1pt ew double My Tent or Yours 4/1 or better with Dodging Bullets 5/1 2.05 Chelt

(for anyone without a Paddy Power account take note that they do offer £10 max on The New One at 8/1 – that is the best value to be had by far)

 

4.00 Mares Hurdle

 

This is all about Quevega who does very little all year and just gets tuned up for this and then wins

Corals offer a crazy 4/1 about an odds on shot here for new accounts (max £10) for anyone who can avail themselves of that

I can’t back her at prohibitive odds but it’s hard to oppose her also – hopefully more firms do a without the fav market here tomorrow and we might see something but for now the verdict is NO BET

 

4.40 National Hunt Chase

Another No Bet race for me.

Foxrock looks the obvious one to be laid out for this race but 5 and 6yo have a very bad record in this which counts against him at the price and Rogue Angel.

Shotgun Paddy’s need for softer ground is concerning enough to sway me there and Shutthefrontdoor is the marginal choice but don’t like the 7/2 sort of price being offered

I’ve tried to find an interesting outsider but so far failed to come up with anything!

 

5.15 Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase

Things to look for here from a stats perspective:

Handicap chase debutants

7yos

Previous novice hurdle form at the festival

Beaten on at least 2 first chase starts and being a maiden over fences not such a bad thing

 

All of this leads me to Close House as the pick – this ground and trip look optimum and his chase mark is 8lb lower than his highest hurdles mark. He could have crept in leniently.

 

Recommendation

1pt ew Close House 16/1 (take ¼ 12345 with 888 if you can otherwise the general 1234)

 

As ever comments are appreciated – have a good week with whatever you back and enjoy the spectacle!

Thanks for reading 

Paul

(updates planned every evening for following day’s racing and additionally during the day if anything of interest is worth adding)

Evening update – value appearing in the Mares Hurdle now in the ‘without Quevega’ market
Doyly Carte will like better ground and not sure that Cockney Sparrow would have beaten her at Doncaster last time if she had stayed up. Jockey booking now unknown but 20/1 without the fav is too big for me. Kelso run last time was poor but all of Donald’s ran badly that day and the stable form has turned since.
Recommendation: 1pt ew Doyly Carte w/o the fav @20/1 (1/5 123) – Paddy Power/Stan James

I wasn’t planning to cover this race until the night before but after scanning the 5 day declarations and the latest odds there are a couple of bets to be had in the race for me.

Wednesday’s final event has the betting dominated by the Irish challengers. That’s not entirely surprising when we consider their blanket bombing of this event has resulted in 16 of the 21 wins since its inception.

Willie Mullins as per usual heads the attack with 3 likely runners (Shaneshill, Black Hercules and Killultagh Vic) – he has a fine record in the race but it’s always a guessing game as to which of his is best and the bookies take no chances with having them all trading at 10/1 or less. One of them may turn out to be another superstar but unless privy to stable info that one is significantly better then there is hardly much value there

Dermot Weld also has a couple near the front of the odds (Siver Concorde and Vigil) but worth noting his record in the race is quite poor – even his subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage could do no better than 3^rd

With the Irish runners mostly so short (and many having form on much softer ground than is likely now) the value bets for me come from the home side where odds are more generous.

The unbeaten Modus is the shortest price of the GB runners based on a very impressive course win on Jan 1 on soft ground. While he looked very good I do find myself questioning what he actually beat that day and I find myself drawn more to another bumper run at the course in November for my selections.

The bumper run at the Open meeting in November looked very strong at the time and the exploits since of the winner Red Sherlock do nothing to dispel that.

He pulled clear with Carningli and Our Kaempfer in the home straight with some good subsequent winners (Wadswick Court and Cogry) well in their wakes.

Carningli didn’t exactly advertise the form next time but ground could well be to blame for that.

However the impression I took most at the time was that the very green looking Our Kaempfer could ultimately prove the best horse in the race.

He hasn’t been seen since but I’m sure that’s down to the ground (his full brother Clondaw Kaempfer has won on soft but has always had suspicion that it doesn’t really suit him as well). Lack of experience may be an issue but the engine is definitely there and 33/1 more than outweighs the downsides.

Looking back at the race again however did provide another notable eyecatcher – Neck or Nothing. Irish trained at the time (sold for 200k two days before the race) – he now represents same connections as successful with Cheltenian in this race in 2011.

Neck or Nothing’s run is worth a look on video as he was moving ominously behind the pack when losing all chance with an acrobatic display after spooking and trying to jump a road before the home turn. The birds had flown by the time he had righted himself but he was still spotted putting in a nice finish up the hill and there was clear indication he had the ability to be seriously involved in the finish if that hadn’t happened

I also suspect he has been saved since to keep away from the bad winter ground and am sure that Philip Hobbs will have him fit enough for this

If the ground were still to stay too soft there must be a chance the either or both will not run so betting with NRNB is a must here (if ground does stay soft then I also consider Definitly Red overpriced currently –  would be much shorter I’m sure if his stable was higher profile – will save that for nearer the time though as ground not looking to go that way right now)

 

Recommendations:

1pt ew Our Kaempfer 33/1 NRNB (BetVictor, Stan James)

1pt ew Neck or Nothing 25/1 NRNB (available fairly generally but avoid Will Hill who do not offer the nrnb concession)

Odds link for the race available here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-bumper/winner

With the first five day declarations in today excitement is building as we approach the Festival once more. (Tuesdays 5 day decs can be found here http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?crs_id=11&r_date=2014-03-11&tab=sc_ )

It’s still hard to predict who runs where in some cases and what will the ground be like. Currently it’s soft (good to soft in places) but the forecast looks dry and good to soft looking more likely – and who knows we may even have genuine good ground at some point during the week. A word of warning though – the water table is so high that it would probably not take much rain for the ground to deteriorate so it’s still a bit of a ‘wait and see’. I’ll be blogging every night before each days racing next week but for now a quick recap through what was already put up in my last blog and how they look now

RSA Chase

1pt ew Le Bec 16/1 – still generally 14 or 16 available and largely because Emma Lavelle’s charge hasnt run since so not much more to add! (havent heard anything negative since though)

1pt ew OFaolains Boy 25/1 – now offered between 12 and 16 max – his second chase run didnt go to plan but he did indeed return for the Reynoldstown where a nice win cemented his chance here. I believe better ground will suit and think he’s still overpriced on that effort. I’m hoping Barry Geraghty can renew his association with no obvious Henderson candidate for him to ride.

There still appears no obvious standout to me in this race and can see anything rated around 150 being able to win it.

I did put up Annacotty’s chances on Twitter after a fine effort last time out at Cheltenham when failing under a big weight after being taken on for the lead early. He was added to my portfolio at 33/1 and while I see 20/1 as a fair price I think the value margin is not quite enough to put him up on the blog at those odds (though wouldnt dissuade anyone from adding him)

A lot of preview nights seem to suggest the Irish challenge will outpoint the English here but I’m not so sure they are ahead and dont like the fact that none of their three main raiders have any course form here.

 

JLT Chase

3pts ew Oscar Whisky 10/1 – now 7/1 best price and as low as 5/1

Oscar has run since in a not too impressive win at Sandown where the bad ground undoubtedly didnt help him. I dont take negatives from that – yes, it could have been visually better but it’s his Cheltenham record that is all important for our purposes. The better weather forecast is good news – good to soft would be ideal for Oscar – Felix Yonger would be the one I fear most if the ground does verge on good.

TRIUMPH Hurdle

1pt ew Fox Norton 25/1 – Non Runner (LOSS – 2pts)

The perils of Ante Post betting struck here when he was taken out of the race a couple of weeks ago making this a losing bet. I dont know the reason for his withdrawal but it’s a shame as his form lines were working out nicely and hope to see Broughton advertising the Doncaster race now ( though suspect the hill may not suit this one as well as others)

 

GOLD CUP

2pts ew FIRST LIEUTENANT 12/1 – now as high as 16/1

Clearly made to look second best behind Last Instalment last time but the ground was too soft for him there. There is a question mark now if he runs in the Gold Cup or the shorter Ryanair Chase dependant on the ground. However, tonight the same owners Last Instalment is described as 50-50 to run and will only compete if the ground is soft. The weather forecast suggests it wont be and this would also suggest that First Lieutenant wil run in this race now on the ground he so dearly needs.

With ‘Non Runner No Bet’ now available there is some insuranced if he does run in the Ryanair (original bet would be a loser) and I think its worth bolstering what we have on this now as I think his place claims are so strong if he gets optimum conditions

Therefore another 1pt ew First Lieutenant (16/1 BetVictor taking NRNB) making 3pts ew in total

I firmly see Bobs Worth as the horse to beat here still (peerless 5/5 record at Cheltenham). I’m hopeful we may see some firms offering more lucrative prices than 2/1 come the day here and if any firms do tasty price boosts on him would take what you can there

 

Nothing to add for other races yet. The feature on Tuesday, the Champion hurdle doesnt offer any value at this stage to me. I feel a bit robbed here that the Mullins camp may not let Annie Power and Un De Sceaux take their chance in this race. I may be wrong but it all seems to be a grand effort to let Hurricane Fly have his best chance of winning (really not sure now is the time to see if Annie Power stays 3 miles in the World Hurdle instead). Thankfully, even if Un De Sceaux does not run we now have the inclusion today of Captain Cee Bee to provide some pace in the race. The New One won’t have to make the running now – My Tent or Yours won’t lose the race by pulling and we should have a case of the best horse winning with no excuses.

 

Back on Monday night for the real fun to start!

 

Paul

 

 

Greetings all. The blog has been empty for a while but it’s largely there for my Cheltenham and Aintree thoughts so with the New Year settling in a few scribblings seem warranted!

I tend to think of January and February as quieter times for betting as races often become more about trials for the big thing and it’s the time to start bolstering the Ante Post portfolios instead.

Recent years havent got any easier with extra novice hurdles and novice chases making the guessing game of ‘who runs where’ so much harder – this year is no exception.

However here’s a few Ante Post selections right now that catch my eye as value right now:

RSA Chase (Weds 12th Mar)

No obvious star heading the market yet here and until one emerges I tend to think this could be another slightly substandard year with the newer JLT Chase over a shorter trip the following day steering away some of the classier and speedier types.

Emma Lavelle’s LE BEC has done little wrong in the two obvious trial races at the course before Christmas (beaten last time but came out best from a weight perspective) and am surprised that 16/1 is still generally available. It would be a surprise if he didnt turn up in the race and that course experience has to be a plus where so potential rivals from Ireland have yet to visit here at all.

A 7 year old Irish bred staying type would seem the ideal fit for this event so I also throw in O’FAOLAINS BOY as one to keep on the right side. One look at this tank of an animal would be enough to tell you that chasing was always going to be his game but he still managed a good fourth at last year’s Festival over hurdles. His reappearance at Ascot was full of promise, coming to win  the race before fitness told late on. Another run or two for further experience would be hoped for and it easy to see him returning for something like the Reynoldstown at Ascot ( a key trial race in the past) . 25/1 is still available in places and as long as he builds on the promise of that first run can see it only moving downwards.

Recommendations

1pt ew Le Bec (16/1 general)

1pt ew O’Faolains Boy 25/1 (Betvictor and 888)

 

JLT Chase (Thurs 13th March)

Formerly the Jewson Chase this race now matches the RSA and the previous days Arkle at Group One Level and there are some classy individuals at the forefront of the betting here. Many do have alternative entries and can’t be guaranteeed as runners but I would be stunned if OSCAR WHISKY ended up somewhere else. Throughout a top class hurdling career connections always wished for a race at his meeting between the 2 miles of the Chapnion Hurdle and the 3 miles of the World Hurdle. They never got it but they now have a race over the ‘ideal’ trip and his campaign so far his season has stuck to the same distance. In common with many of his owner’s horses he needed the run first time up and has since avenged that defeat by Taquin Du Seuil over the course. He’s also had to do a lot of the front running work in his races thus far and a stronger and bigger field come the day should surely suit. Plenty of Festival experience here to fall back on ( 6 course wins and only disappointments coming over the 3 mile trip) convince me that quotes of 10/1 are way too high here.

 

Recommendation

3pts ew OSCAR WHISKY 10/1 (888 are bets with 1/4 odds offered, Hills offering 1/5th – 9/1 with Corlas and Sportingbet also acceptable)

 

TRIUMPH HURDLE (Friday 14th March)

I thought Irish raider Analifet appeared someway above her rivals in this grade but her sad injury over Christmas has left a very wide open feel to the race. Nick Williams’ Le Rocher won the main juveniles division race at Chepstow but subsequent interviews seemd quite obviously to reveal he wasnt a likely Triumph runner. That space was more likely to be filled by his stablemate FOX NORTON who is held in similarly high regard. Before this one’s last win there seemed to be a general perception that he was flattered by his narrow defeat to Nicky Henderson’s Royal Irish Hussar at Market Rasen (the latter subsequently improving to win twice impressively since). At Doncaster he then turned round the form in what could have been a very smart race – yet there still seems to be a lack of recognition in his claims with some 25/1 quotes (maybe under assumption that Royal Irish Hussar just wasnt the same horse)

It would be nice to see him get some course experience before the big meeting ( a key trial coming up at end of this month) but he does stick out as the value play in this race right now

Recommendation

1pt ew Fox Norton 25/1 (Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Hills)

 

GOLD CUP (Friday 14th March)

I’ve long been a fan of FIRST LIEUTENANT and was a bit gutted to see him rerouted to the shorter Ryanair Chase last year so that his stablemate Sir Des Champs would run in the ‘big one’ instead. This year Sir Des Champs is out with injury and nothing would seem to bar Mouse Morris’s charge being aimed at what should be the correct race. He’s long appeared as a Spring horse and form achieved before March has been a bonus – furthermore he’s always looked the type who would improve into his frame as he got older. I do believe his most recent defeat to Bobs Worth represented another step forward and can see further improvement from that in March.

His Cheltenham festival record reads 122 with the defeats coming from the aforementioned Bobs Worth and Cue Card last year. Cue Card is surely vulnerable up the final hill over this trip were he to run here however.

Bobs Worth is a different matter and is obviously the one to beat but at their respective odds the value is firmly with the Irish challenger for me (King George winner Silviniaco Conti’s lack of proven course form a big concern). I do worry with ‘Bob’ being such a trier that it will come back to find him out one day

 

Recommendation

2pts ew First Lieutenant 12/1 (365, Betfred, Tote all offering this with NRNB for some extra safeguard)

GRAND NATIONAL (Sat 5th April)

Final Ante Post snippet for now comes for the piece de resistance event at Aintree.

When SOLL won at Sandown last year it was hard not to be impressed by the way this giant of a horse skipped round the fences. He went on to run at Aintree staying prominent for much of the way before weakening in the straight to finish 7th. His campaign last year suggested the National wasnt always the aim (competed in both Hennessy and Welsh National earlier in the season) but his performance there and quieter start to this season are indicative that there is firmly one one aim this time. His reappearance run was eyecatching, he’s now the right age at 9 and my fingers are crossed he now has a suitably light preparation to capitalise on an ideal looking mark of 139.

Hills are still dangling a juicy 50/1 carrot and would advise taking 1pt ew at those odds.

 

Thats all for now! Thanks for reading as usual , good luck with whatever you back and any comments are greatly appreciated

 

Hopefully back on the blog sometime in February for another look at the Ante Post markets but definitely back for the second week in March again!

 

Paul

(@Senor_Moodoir)

A successful day for the blog on Tuesday with Garswood swooping late and Harris Tweed being able to control the race as I hoped at a lovely double figure price – giving a handsome profit on the day.

I didn’t see Wednesday as a great betting day but some thoughts for Thursday’s tv races below

2.15

When this race used to be the Extel Handicap in years gone by, Luca Cumani would always be feared. His Ajmany doesnt look the Group winner in waiting that he used to throw here in the past though and along with current fav Code of Honour they don’t appeal at available odds after the handicapper has upped them both for recent wins.

There are two bigger prices that are more noteworthy and will be backing both ew. 

King George River 16/1. Was watching this one with interest last weekend in a much better race at York on his return from an injury sustained while giving subsequent French Derby victor Intello a good race at Newmarket. It may have been the fast ground or lack of a recent run but I got the distinct impression he was given an easy time with a view to something else.  My immediate thought was that his handicap mark of 103  could be on lenient side still and it’s notable for me that he has turned out again here so soon – Fallon on board rather than Tylicki now and less jar in the ground.

 

Cruck Realta is also overpriced at 25/1 now the ground is a bit easier and warrants support. She has run well against decent types this season and conditions were against her last time. I’d rather judge her on some earlier season performances here – on her run on good to soft earlier in the season she split the now 100+ rated pair of Contributer and yesterday’s Gordon Stakes winner, Cap O Rushes. Her mark of 95 tomorrow looks good in that respect and I think she is a better filly when the word ‘firm’ doesnt figure in the going

 

2.45

Godolphin’s Figure of Speech is too short for me here. Granted he may well improve on his July Stakes 2nd but he doesnt have much in hand on Jallota ( a consistent and slowly improving  type whose action suggests he may be better on ground less quick than he encountered there) .

While I think Jallota is quite big at 10/1, there is a worry he may have been overraced lately. Of slightly more interest is Andhesontherun at 16/1+. After staying on well over Sandown’s stiff 5 behind Rizeena, it wasnt entirely surprising to see them go too fast for him in the Windsor Castle at Ascot, but he still wasnt beaten far on the ‘wrong’ side of the track. This 6 furlong trip looks much better and I feel he is about double the price he really should be here.

3.15 The Goodwood Cup is wide open and I can make a case for nearly everything here. Nothing appealing as a betting proposition

3.45 Lady Cecil’s Wild Coco may well outclass these but taking close to Evens on her well being first time up doesnt appeal. Instead a small each way on last year’s second Jehannedarc is recommended. Perfectly willing to excuse her last run on ground that was too fast – here it should suit better and the trip holds no worries. 11/1 ew with  1/4 1st 3 is out there and worth taking some of.

 

Good luck once more!

 

Paul

A few too many thoughts for Day 1 to tweet but here’s my take on the 4 tv races on Tuesday, the first day of the meeting.

There’s no doubt that Goodwood is a beautiful racecourse – great for a picnic and a glass of Pimms in the sunshine but not always the best place for betting for me with hard luck stories aplenty in the bigger fields.

Wednesday’s card already looks a no bet today for the moment but here goes for day 1 ; ground has eased slightly over the weekend to good/good to firm in places and rain is expected tomorrow morning which could wipe the ‘firm’ out the description totally

1.55 Locally trained Blue Surf is the one to beat – back over his optimum trip and on a course he has performed well over in the past. 8/1 ew looks a perfectly fair price to take – any extra rain tomorrow will be a bonus to his chances.  Strictly Silver should benefit from a drop back in trip as well and could be an outsider whose chances are greater than the 20/1 currently on offer

2.30 Wide open affair and could make a case for nearly all of the runners – most of whom ran at Royal Ascot. I think Ambiance needs quick ground and don’t think he will get it. Many of these clashed in the Windsor Castle – Supplicant came out best there and Ryan Moore has a very healthy 75% strike rate for Richard Fahey this year so far. He was not dominant enough there though to suggest that 3/1 quotes are screaming to be taken. What value there is lies more with Sleeper King at 12/1 (corals completely duck at 15/2 ) and Justice Day at 16/1. Both were beaten about 3 lengths in that race but both showed a lot of speed which could be better suited to this track – and they can cope with any softer ground. Small ew on both is the recommendation.

3.05 Garswood is the one of interest here particularly with Ryan Moore now on board Richard Fahey’s Free Hcap winner. He didnt look totally happy on the fast ground at Ascot and think tomorrows conditions could show him in his best light again over what seems his optimum trip right now. Value is disappearing though and yesterdays quotes of 8/1 now seem a distant memory with 6/1 currently top price.

3.40 This competitive handicap is a bit of an Ebor trial. Oriental Fox is probably the one to beat – he ran well here earlier in the year and his one poor run this season could be attributed to faster ground than he’ll see here. He has run from the front here before but doesn’t have to lead. The pace angle of this race quite interests me as aside from the favourite, I could see Harris Tweed getting an uncontested lead up front with no one else wanting to take him on. That fact makes him the value ew bet at 20/1 and any further ease in the ground is again a positive factor

 

Thanks for reading, comments are always welcome and good luck with whatever you back

 

Paul

 

Ladies Day – the centrepiece of the Royal meeting is upon us after a couple of up and down days to precede it

Rizeena put things back into a respectable fashion on Wednesday after places were all I could muster on day 1.

Some thoughts for day 3 where the overnight weather could play a big part:

2.30 US trainer Wes Ward sent a very quick filly across to finish second in the Queen Mary and the vibes are that his representative here – No Nay Never is the best of his raiding party. If the rain doesn’t get into deep and ground is on fast side still tomorrow he could blitz this lot for speed (the trainer has won 2yo races similarly here in the past). If the ground softens his chances diminish. Hard to judge a recommendation until seeing what the ground is like but 5/1 really appeals if it’s no slower than good

 

3.05 Not a betting race for me. Alive Alive Oh and Winsili appearing the principals to me but neither at prices I would want to take

 

3.45 18 runners and the most open Gold Cup in living memory.

Last years winner, Colour Vision just hasn’t done anything since to suggest he is in the same vein of form.

Times Up is a doubtful stayer at this trip for me and I don’t think the German and French raiders are quite good enough.

The Queen’s Estimate is fav but price is too skinny I think.

The Irish provide most of the key contenders for me with Rite of Passage (previous winner and lightly raced 9yo), Simenon and Saddlers Rock. I have already put up the latter in Tuesday’s blog and think he will be trained to the minute for this. He was fancied last year and things didn’t quite go right for him but the trip is ideal and while he goes on most ground if it stays on firm side he will be suited better than most.

If there is to be a shock I think Biographer is quite unexposed and his reappearance run reads very well now

Saddlers Rock (now 9/1 with William Hill) remains the  recommendation with a small ew interest on Biographer at 20/1 or more (as I write I see Pricewise could have scuppered any chance of that price now though!)

 

4.25 A very competitive handicap but two horses here already look above this level in Wentworth and Cape Peron. The latter is a horse I have particular fondness for and still looks leniently treated here to me.

Weather is again a factor. Henry Candy has said he is doubtful to run if ground is fast. The forecast rain will help him and if it doesn’t materialise it could just be a case of getting the money back as he won’t be risked unless the trainer is happy

1pt ew Cape Peron 7/1

 

5.0 The best renewal I can ever remember of this Group 3 event – and the first 5 or 6 in the betting could all be a grade or two higher than this. None of them stand out so I’ll just be happy to watch and have no bet

 

5.35 Another competitive handicap. In years past I remember two subsequent multiple Group  1 winners finishing in the rear here after a barging match at the back of the field – Celeric and Pilsudski. It just goes to show that the best horse needs luck in running in a race like this

I can’t see anything here reaching the dizzy heights of those two but think that Godolphin’s top weight Cap O’Rushes doesn’t have that bad a mark judged on his reappearance effort and could be worth a little tickle

0.25 pts ew Cap O Rushes at 20/1 or higher

 

Good luck all – thoughts and comments always welcome

 

Paul

 

(i’m told that blue would be a likely colour for the Queen’s hat today for anyone liking that bet – but its in no possible way a recommendation from me :))

Some brief thoughts for the first day of Royal Ascot.

Being more into jump racing than the flat this doesn’t compare to Cheltenham and Aintree for me but with competitive odds and enhanced place terms abounding it’s not one to ignore..

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes

I don’t really get all the Animal Kingdom hype yet and was looking forward to taking him on with Farrh in this race until injury claimed that one’s chances.

I much prefer proven European turf form to anything achieved in the US or Dubai and there is one proven Group 1 perfomer from that sphere opposing him here in Elusive Kate.

She mixed it with the likes of Frankel and Excelebration last year and that’s far more than Animal Kingdom or any of the others (largely Group 3 performers at best) can throw into the mix here.

Lack of a run this season is a slight concern but she did perform perfectly well last season first time up and has to be the selection at current odds

1.5pts ew Elusive Kate @7/1 (Paddy Power – who also seem to refund win bet if the fav wins! – check terms and conditions with them for this)

 

3.05 Kings Stand Stakes

Once the sprinting jewel of the Ascot meeting but somewhat over shadowed by Saturday’s Diamond Jubilee race in recent years. This year it looks to be the superior event this time round.

Shea Shea is favourite – again based largely on Dubai form so I again struggle to see the value in him being so short..

Haydock’s Temple Stakes is the key event for me and marginal preference given to Reckless Abandon, who you would expect to come on plenty for that reappearance run and won at this meeting last year. He appeared to get involved in a speed battle early there with Spirit Quartz and feel both could do better than they showed there (though the latter could just struggle to last home as well again). Current prices don’t get me excited enough to go wading in though and if I did the firms that pay ¼ 1234 would be of more interest

 

3.45 St James Palace Stakes

All the protagonists have a little to prove here. Dawn Approach and Toronado both disappointed last time, while Magician has had an injury scare. All of which making it a race toi watch rather than bet in for me

4.25 Coventry Stakes

Feel the Woodcote Stakes at Epsom could be the key race here. Thunder Strike won that and looked a solid professional of a horse (not too worried he appears not to be Hannon first string – that didn’t work out last year for the stable ). The second, Riverboat Springs was the real eyecatcher though, failing to act on the track but finishing to such effect that in another 50 yards he may well have won going away. Can see both running well but go for William Buick’s mount to exact some revenge and hopefully to see him bag his second victory of the day!

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that Aidan O’Brien’s perceived 3^rd string War Command comes out best of his but the recommendation is

0.5 pts ew Riverboat Springs 10/1 or better (1/4 odds 123)

 

5.0 Ascot Stakes

Lady Cecil’s Tiger Cliff would be a hugely popular winner here and he certainly doesn’t appaar that badly in with the trip being the main question mark. 11/2 is perfectly acceptable bearing that in mind, but I was also taken by the early booking of exceptionally good 5lb claimer William Twiston-Davies for Big Easy for Philip Hobbs. That’s more of an intuitive pick as all of his form is from jumps and it’s impossible to tell if his flat rating is well in or not– but he wouldn’t be the first to win this from a similar background

1pt ew Tiger Cliff 11/2

0.5 pts ew Big Easy 12/1

 

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes

Hannon’s Anticipated the one to beat and 11/2 is again easily takeable. I suspect high draw could be an advantage here and will throw in Kevin Ryan’s Sleeper King as some longer priced value as well

1pt ew Anticipated 11/2

0.5 pts ew Sleeper King 16/1

(most firms offering ¼ odds 3 places here but some do offer 4 places!)

 

Take note that Betvictor are also offering a concession this week to refund losses to a certain amount if Richard Hughes gets in the frame in any race – check their terms again.

 

I may not be able to post daily for this meeting except on Twitter @Senor_Moodoir but for later in week early fancies are:

Queen Mary – Wednesday

1.5 pts ew Rizeena @8/1 Bet 365 (1/4 odds 1234 – highly generous place terms as well as being overpriced for me anyway)

Gold Cup – Thursday

1pt ew Saddlers Rock @ 8/1

 

Diamond Jubilee – Saturday

1pt ew Gordon Lord Byron @8/1

 

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back

 

Paul

The big day is almost upon us and it’s been a good meeting for the blog so far with Legacy Gold doing the job nicely in the last today

Tomorrow bookies will be falling over themselves to give the best offers on the race (run at 415) and unless your selection clashes with Tom Segal’s Pricewise one tonight it’s likely that best odds will be found tomorrow morning.

Hills and Ladbrokes supposedly offer 12/1 the field tomorrow so anyone fancying On His Own or Seabass (albeit for likely small stakes) should wait for 9am and get on what they can quickly. They may just pay on first four places  for each way though

Betvictor offer ¼ odds first 6 which is hard to top for those who want to cover many horses in each way singles

Other firms offer first 5 and it could be worth keeping a close eye on Stan James particularly who I believe plan to offer best price on every horse later in the morning tomorrow – if they are that competitive on win odds their place book should hold equally profitable punting opportunities

I can’t add too much more to what I put in my Grand National blog for the big race except to add the name of SOLL into the mix. I didn’t really expect this one to get into the race but he has done and creeps in with a very low weight after a superb round of jumping saw him win at Sandown last time. He is well weighted with Teaforthree compared to their Hennessy running and on breeding should prefer the better ground. He could be worth a small ew addition

And now to the back up races:

1.45

 With a dead 8 runners there is a good ew angle here – less so if one were to drop out.

Favourite is UP AND GO but he does appear a bit too short for me and is unproven on anything other than soft ground.

DODGING BULLETS was disappointing at Cheltenham and have never thought of him as anything other than a 2 miler before today. The ground may suit him a lot more today but he didn’t perform well at this meeting last year and doesn’t appeal at all at a top price of 11/4 right now

The recommendation is EDUARD from Nicky Richards’ stable who deliberately avoided Cheltenham to keep him for this. Very much a work in progress, he has appealed all season as a potential star of the future. The fact that the stable ran him earlier in the season at Cheltenham (as they did with another stable novice Duke of Navan) shows the regard they have for it to me – they don’t go there for the fun of it

His last defeat on paper was disappointing but am willing to excuse it because of the ground

1.5 pts ew EDUARD @5/1 ¼ 123 (365)

(and cross fingers for no nrs)

 

I have no strong view on the next 2 races ( I will say though that Celestial Halo has generally underperformed here in the past after running well at Cheltenham)

 

3.25

Have had this race in mind  for MAC AEDA since seeing him in the 5 day decs. Twice I’ve seen him tanking along in races and looking a major player only to fail through stamina over longer trips. Last time at Haydock it was over 3 furlongs further in very soft ground; similarly in the Scottish Grand National last season on good ground that marked him to me as a horse to follow closely this year.

His mark has slipped nicely to 126 and I’m very hopeful of a big run.

The potential fly in the ointment is BATTLE GROUP who won easily here on Thursday in a hurdle race off the same 131 mark as today. He finished second in this race last year off a 6lb higher mark. If he has come out of that race well he will be a threat.

Recommendation 1pt ew MAC AEDA 14/1 (1/4 1234)

(will also be looking to back without the fav – if that is Battle Group)

 

5.10

 No strong view – my shortlist currently is COCKNEY SPARROW, CRY OF FREEDOM and maybe FIRST IN THE QUEUE at very big odds (not familiar with jockey there puts me off a little but ground will suit this one much better than his recent runs)

5.45

Bet365 have a far better offer than anyone else for this by offering ¼ odds 1234.

It looks like the money is coming down for TISTORY already and that has to be respected from the Henderson stable. PURE SCIENCE (bred to win a Derby), would emulate his stablemate The New One if he won this – they both finished 6^th in the Cheltenham bumper before tackling this.

There wouldn’t seem to be much between him and PURPLE BAY on that Cheltenham run, and he in turn has little in hand of WYLDE BLUE YONDER.

In terms of value I’ll pick MASTER MALT who I think has the best single piece of form in the race ( anarrow defeat by River Maigue at Ayr last season after which he was bought by JP MacManus) and I expected to be a single figure price.

0.5pts ew MASTER MALT 14/1 (1/5 123 P Power) 0r 12/1 (1/4 1234 with B365)

* late update on this race – I am quite taken by support on Betfair for Fair Loch and have added a small ew @25/1 also 

Thanks for reading this and any other posts over the Aintree work

Good luck

 

Paul

 

(as I complete the piece I see Pricewise has gone for Chicago Grey and Quiscover Fontaine in the GN – both in my shortlist from earlier this week)

No posting for day 1 as it looked more of a watching day (just some updates through Twitter @Senor_Moodoir). Aintree is a meeting where surprises do happen – some horses come here after being trained to the minute for Cheltenham and can be a little past their peak.

Day 2 looks more interesting for betting and some thoughts below

Odds won’t get available freely until after todays racing is over but some early musings about what might look of interest

The first two races don’t really appeal as betting propositions at this stage

3.05 Melling Chase

Odds are available here and it’s another chance to see the superstar of the chasing game at the moment, Sprinter Sacre.

Over two miles he would be expected to make mincemeat of this opposition here even though they are the best he has yet to encounter this season. But this race is half a mile further and with his stamina unproven at this level that has to give his rivals some hope.

Flemenstar and Cue Card are great horses in their own right but the former has never run outside of Ireland and is understood to not be a good traveller. Furthermore, I think that Cue Card’s form is looking slightly stronger now in hindsight of Cheltenham.  He did give Sprinter Sacre a semblance of a race at Cheltenham last year and is seen as the biggest threat. With his stamina being assured over this trip he rates a bet for me.

Finians Rainbow hasn’t shown enough form this year to come under consideration but For Non Stop is interesting at very big odds. He travelled very well up to a point last time but his best form has been on this track and it may suit better than Cheltenham. He may well be ridden for second here also

Recommendations:

2pts ew Cue Card @7/1 or better (1/4 odds 1-2)

0.5 pts ew For Non Stop @40/1 (Sportingbet ¼ 1-2)

1pt ew For Non Stop @12/1 w/o Sprinter Sacre 1/4 1-2 (P Power)

 

3.40 Topham Chase

The traditional curtain raiser to the Grand National – a ‘miniature ‘ version of the big race over the same fences but a shorter trip of 2ml 5.5 fur.

Previous form over the course and in this race is so often a plus here.

Chance Du Roy is therefore the obvious one having finished 2^nd in this last year and now amazingly better off at the weights with Fistral Beach and Little Josh who finished behind.

Tartak was top weight that day and finished well down the field – he did have an excuse as having broken a blood vessel during the race. We know he can jump round here though and he lines up tomorrow with a massive 23lb better mark and having run a god third at Cheltenham to show his form hasn’t completely deteriorated. He has to be of interest with his low weight.

Peter Bowen has won this for the last 3 years with the admirable Always Waining. That one goes for the big one instead this year but he could have an able deputy in Gullible Gordon who was backed down from 33/1 to 20/1 earlier this week. He jumped nicely round here before the trip found him out in the John Hughes Trophy in December and his mark as fallen since. An interesting outsider.

I’d be happy taking ew on Chance Du Roy at 8/1, Tartak at 14/1 and Gullible Gordon at 20/1 but preferably with firms that decide to offer ¼ 12345 on the race – evening update 10/1 available in a place on Chance Du Roy with 5 places. (arranging stakes so that they would all win approx 10pts on win part)

 

4.15

 At Fishers Cross comes here with form far superior to anything else and is likely to be a short priced fav. A word of caution though – the ground will be faster than he encountered at Cheltenham and throughout this season and this race has often thrown up big priced surprises.

A few years back the owner had hot favourite Wichita Lineman who came here with very similar credentials – he got involved in a duel with main rival Massinis Maguire and they both ended up getting chinned by 20/1 shot Chief Dan George.

I am struggling to find a reasonable outsider currently though and it looks a race just to watch right now and to avoid piling into the fav on

 

4.50

Need to wait to see some odds here but initially attracted by Meister Eckhart (smashing Cheltenham effort), Peckhamecho (on his Welsh Champion hurdle run and back in a similar race) and the progressive looking Prima Porta right on the bottom 10 stone weight

 

evening update – happy with prices available on all 3 here; 10/1 Meister Eckhart; 20/1 Prima Porta and 25/1 Peckhamecho all available – recommended to back all ew to win 10 pts on win part

5.25 Mares Bumper

Again prices required – the Sandown mares race which threw up the winner last year was run in appalling ground this year and that could count against those who come here from that with a hard last race – and the ground conditions will be totally different to make the form line questionable

I like the form of Irish raider Legacy Gold at the moment, whose trainer is very adept at this type of race. Evening update – would have taken anything with double figues on this one after Runswick Royal gave formlines a big boost earlier today – 14/1 available 1/4 1234 1pt ew recommended

good luck

 

Paul

( good chance to use some nice enhanced place terms which can be used to advantage in combo bets tomorrow and Grand National for anyone who wants to escape the singles only options)

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