Monthly Archives: April 2014

Epsom Classics outsiders

The flat season really started to hit gear in the last 10 days with the first major 3 year old trials for the 2000 and 1000 Guineas in early May.
Looking further ahead to June, however and there were a couple of performances that took the eye for the Derby and the Oaks and where some decent odds appear worth taking

Epsom Derby 7th June
Still very early for many hands to be played in this but while it is an acknowledged trial for the Guineas it was interesting that Luca Cumani chose this race for the reappearance of Postponed.
Everything about his pedigree and his running style as a raw 2yo last year suggested that a 10 furlong minimum trip was what he needed and yet he was backed for this 1 mile race.
Not surprisingly he got outpaced after a slow early pace quickened up but he was staying on powerfully in the final furlong.
Dubawi’s stock tend to progress well with racing and I think we can expect to see some significant improvement when he faces a trip.
He is entered in the Dante but it might be most telling if Luca sends him to the Lingfield Derby Trial – a race he used as a springboard for his previous two Derby winners – Kahyasi and High Rise
Not all firms quote him as yet but 66/1 is available in a place and that’s an appealing price at this stage

0.5 pts ew Postponed 66/1 (1/4 123) – Stan James



Epsom Oaks 6th June
Winners of this are frequently unexposed types as 2yos but a notable race for spotting future talent was the 1¼ mile maiden for fillies at Newbury on the 11th April
Despite being a maiden the cast list of winners in last 10 years bears witness that trainers send some decent types to this event.
Dancing Rain (2011) and Eswarah (2005) both went on to win the Epsom Classic. Other winners – Vow, Gertrude Bell and Clowance all finished 4th at Epsom – the latter two also tasting subsequent Group level success. Folk Opera (2007) went on to record a Group 1 victory, while Pink Symphony also progressed to Group 3 glory in 2010.
Last year’s winner Banoffee didnt quite match those heights but did run at Epsom finishing 7th after coming from this maiden to win the Cheshire Oaks on her next start
This leads us onto the winners of the two divisions this year – Bright Approach and Inchila.
The former was part of a golden weekend of winners for John Gosden and still looked quite green – there doesn’t seem to be much gossip that Epsom is her destination as yet and could see her swerving that race so she is passed by for now.
Inchila, on the other hand is of much greater interest. She won her maiden easily, coasting in behind the leaders in the straight and then settling matters with a swift turn of foot.

The win was all the more impressive after the way she pulled so fiercely early on in the back straight.
This freeness was also evident on her promising 2yo debut at Goodwood last year , where she was an eyecatching second behing Guineas hopeful , Amazing Maria
With a run behind her and hopefully a stronger pace, she could be seen in a better light still and there would appear to be plenty of untapped potential here.
12 furlongs wouldn’t appear to be a problem on breeding – and there’s some class on the dam’s side which contains many notable performers from the past that would have been seen racing for Geoff Wragg in the Sir Philip Oppenheimer colours
One slight reservation would be ground – her win at Newbury came on softish conditions. I would be a little concerned if ‘firm’ appeared in the going title
Again not many firms are quoting at this point but 50/1 will do for me at this stage

0.75 pts ew Inchila 50/1 (1/4 odds 123 – 365, Stan James)

Comments as always most welcome

Thanks for reading and enjoy the flat season ahead


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Posted by on April 21, 2014 in Uncategorized


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Aintree results and Guineas Prospects

Fences are there to be jumped and sadly the main hope for this year’s big race ended up on the floor at Aintree’s biggest fence, The Chair. I hope Teaforthree is back next year and ridden a bit more positively again – he just didnt seem to be jumping with his usual elan after being kept back from the front of the race (presumably in an effort to help him get home).

Pineau De Re was a comfortable winner in the end and really wasn’t far off meeting the stats criteria. If I had counted the Ulster Grand national as a top staying chase like the English. Scottish and Welsh versions he would have done. A lesson learn there but this game is all about building on mistakes like that.

Ma Filleule won the Topham so impressively on Friday that many will be thinking of her already for next year’s National but beware. She could end up being handicapped out of the race after demolising her opponents off 150. The Gold Cup is an equally attainable target based on that run and I wouldnt put anyone off an early interest there at 33/1 – she is only 6 and could have further improvement to come! Her price should certainly be closer than it is compared to Holywell right now

Aintree results below:

THURS stakes profit/loss
0,5 pts ew HAWK HIGH @14/1 lost 1 -1
2pts ew CLARET CLOAK @9/2 3rd 4 0,25
1pt ew ANY GIVEN DAY @20/1 lost 2 -2
1pt ew SPIRIT OF SHANKLY @14/1 lost 2 -2
1pt ew BIG FELLA THANKS @16/1 lost 2 -2
1pt ew GIORGIO QUERCUS @25/1 fell 2 -2
1pt ew RACING PULSE @14/1 lost 2 -2
0,5 pts ew PORT MELON @25/1 lost 1 -1
1,5 pts ew THE GOVANESS @10/1 Lost (4th) 3 -3
1pt win SIMPLY NED @14/1 2nd 1 -1
2,5pts ew TEAFORTHREE @10/1 fell 5 -5
0,75pts ew VINTAGE STAR @ lost 1,5 -1,5
1pt ew SOLL @50/1 NR 2 0
1,5 pts SWING BILL @4/1 to finish top 10 9th 1,5 6
0,5 pts ew KASHMIR PEAK @20/1 lost 1 -1
0,5 pts ew SCOTS GAELIC @20/1 lost 1 -1

TOTALS 32 pts staked  -18,25pts loss on week

Adding this to Cheltenham selections the blog is now running on a 21.62 pt profit this year (from 98.5 pts staked – a 21.9% return)

So a disappointing week but still nicely ahead on the year

I tend to wind down my Jump racing interests after Aintree has finished and the flat will gradually take over – November is when it all starts again over the fences properly for me

Blog posting will be less frequent as my time is taken up more with the main summer tennis events and so most of my thoughts will be found on Twitter

Here’s a few horses I am looking to see again in coming weeks with the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas in mind

No 2yo impressed me more than Berkshire‘s last to first sweep in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. The form of that race worked out superbly and he sort of reminded me of another old favourite, Chief Singer, at the time.

He reappeared once after that at the back end of the season and was much less impressive but the overall feeling was that he was just a baby last year and this year is what it is all about.


He should be back at Newbury this Saturday – I wouldnt be expecting him to be fully tuned up for that and a small field may not suit. As long as he runs well, I can only see him improving quite a bit more in the Guineas where the race should suit him better

In opposition on Saturday could be Be Ready, the other 2yo that greatly impressed me last year when winning at Doncaster in September. He hasn’t been seen since then and the stable can’t seem to decide at the moment if he is a Guineas or a Derby horse. saturday should tell us more but I’d be disappointed if he isnt a Group winner in waiting.

Australia seems a crazy price in the Guineas and that’s all about O’Brien stable hype – we’ve been there before and seen as many flops as successes. Toormore is the one with solid form who they should all be more wary of if he has trained on

For the fillies, Ihtimal ran behind Berkshire in the Chesham and continued to progress from there. The worry was that being quite small she wouldnt train on but she has been impressive in Dubai already this year and that could well give her an edge this early in the year. She is top of my shortlist for that race right now


Rizeena may well be back this weekend and did very little wrong last year, proving that a mile was not too far for her when beaten by the ill fated Chriselliam on her final start (Ihtimal 3rd but not the best of rides for me there considering she had proven stamina). Her trainer knows how to win this race and she is the main danger for me.

The ‘dark one’ I have in mind for this race but maybe moreso for the season ahead is Amazing Maria. She took time to find her form in her first two races but then showed her true potential with two highly impressive victories at Goodwood – dominating from the front and using an impressive stride to have rivals in toruble a long way out. She hasn’t faced the class of opponents that Ihtimal and Rizeena has but is one to ignore at your peril

No recommendations on these – they are just ones I’d like to keep on my side and have high hopes for in the coming months – hopefully there’s a Guineas winner (or two!) listed in there


Thanks for reading once more



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Posted by on April 7, 2014 in Uncategorized


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Aintree day 3 – Grand National Day

A blank day for the blog on Friday unless anyone managed to get the first 4 bet on The Govaness in the last (with a firm that I cannot get a bet on personally so won’t include for resulting purposes) – she looked to come with a winning run but the combination of her penalty and losing ground throughout on the outside didn’t help close home. So unless anyone managed to avail themselves of that offer we end up with a 10 pt loss on the day.
Anyone who followed 3 mile handicap chase form at Cheltenham might have had a field day with the 1-2 from there, Holywell and Ma Filleule, both running out convincing winners. Neither would look out of place in next season’s Gold Cup on their performances today.

So now we come to Saturday with the Grand National the showpiece on the card:

1.30 Mersey Novices Hurdle
Odds here:
surprisingly not many firms offering an enhanced ¼ odds a place on this race at time of posting

Cheltenham Supreme Novice hurdle form was highly advertised by Josses Hill and Sgt Reckless today and Wilde Blue Yonder represents the best of that here. He ran a solid race there and may well have won two others earlier in the year but for last fence falls. Now he has a clean round behind him, it has to be hoped he can go on from that and the extra half mile could bring some further improvement.
Chief threat for me is Oscar Hoof, who hasn’t been running at such a high level but impressed greatly when winning at Kempton last time – seeing off a strong travelling challenger in great style . It’s notable that Barry Geraghty picks him instead of Volnay De Thaix.
Not quite enough value in the market to tempt me in right now

2.00 Maghull Novices Chase

The Aintree version of Cheltenham’s Arkle is a tight looking race where the isn’t much between the principals.
Trifolium came out best in the Arkle but Balder Success and Hinterland both dodged that race (the latter having an unfortunate unseat in the Champion Chase instead)
Next Sensation and Simply Ned are very progressive types who have come up through handicaps and deserve their chance at this level. The former is an exciting front runner who should be better suited to this track than at Cheltenham.
Simply Ned has improved all through the season and could be the sort who will prosper with the gallop that will be set here. He is the selection on the basis that I don’t think his level of form is too dissimilar to his main rivals – but his price compared to them is much too high. It’s no shock he missed Cheltenham – the Richards stable have always had greater success at this course

1pt win Simply Ned 14/1 (365, Totesport, Betfred)

2.50 Silver Cross Stayers Hurdle

Aintree version of the World Hurdle sees At Fishers Cross (3rd in that) leading the market.
He is much the likeliest winner for me but I can see why Corals look to want to take him on at 15/8.
I’m not sure where the pace will come from in this race so it could be a muddling affair. He has had jumping problems in the past but it was a much cleaner display at Cheltenham where he was well beaten by two hugely talented rivals – but was clearly ahead of the rest.
I think he could be the leading 3 mile hurdler next year if his jumping is sharpened as so many of his rivals may be changing trip or going chasing.
It’s not a betting race on this occasion for me


3.30 Hcap Chase

No surprise to see Victor Hewgo favourite here – his form is closely tied in with Holywell and Western Warhorse who have boosted it considerably since. He may be a bit flattered by some of this but is clearly the one to beat. This is a competitive race though and odds are quite short around 7/2
Unioniste represents last seasons novice chase crop which doesn’t look bad now after recent performances of Lord Windermere and Boston Bob. His weight could be prohibitive here though,
The interesting one lower down the handicap is Saint Are, who has an excellent record at this meeting, winning twice at the Mildmay course. He runs off an 8lb lower mark than when successful in this race in 2012 and I would be inclined to forgive his pulled up effort at Cheltenham last time – a course he has never liked
9/1 available there now and if he gets to a double figure price I might have to play


4.15 Crabbies Grand National
The highlight of the meeting and here are the latest odds:

I covered the race more thoroughly when the 5 day decs came out on Monday here :

This really is a race to hunt for value, particularly on each way betting with bookmakers falling over themselves to compete for best price and trying to tempt punters in with 5 or even 6 places. This really isn’t profitable for them to do so take advantage if you can get good win odds and extra places – its often going to be a loss leader for companies who hope to bring in new customers through the year in what is one of their biggest ‘shop windows’.
Make sure you take a price – most firms wil offer best odds guaranteed in case the SP is bigger – but the likelihood is that prices will shorten once on course bookmakers control the odds. So bet early take the price and get the value while it’s there!

The expected rain hasn’t really materialised since then so that’s against two stats picks – Hawkes Point and Mountainous
This leaves old Welsh National protagonists, Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude as the chief picks but on a basis of value I prefer the former for reasons stated in that piece, (Monbeg’s rider Paul Carberry will have to pass the doctor in the morning to ride as well after a fall in the Topham today). I think he should be more like 6/1 for the race but 10/1 is being pushed out there again this evening

I can understand why money has come for The Package today after he chased home today’s winners, Holywell and Ma Filleule last time at Cheltenham. That was a fairly distant third though and I would rather judge him on the horse that finished around him than the two who were clearly dominant. When he was 33/1 he was interesting but quotes of less than 20/1 for ahorse who didn’t really seem to enjoy the fences on his previous try here aren’t particularly tempting)


So I’ll be sticking with my previous recommendations here
2.5 pts ew Teaforthree (now possible to get 10/1 ¼ 123456! with BetVictor – best win odds and best place odds is hard to knock)
0.75 pts ew Vintage Star 66/1 now available with some firms offering extra places)
(1pt ew Soll was advised in January but he was balloted out of the race which means we get money back on that bet)
*MORNING UPDATE – Extra Recomemndation *
1.5pts Swing Bill @4/1 to finish in first 10 – this market only offered on William Hill and the Betfair Exchange right now. In 6 attempts over the course, this old veteran has jumped round every time and the only time he didnt complete was a pulling up on very heavy ground in the Becher Chase. He’s probably one of the safest conveyances in the race and this price seems based on his win price rather than his course record. His November run over the course showed he has some zest for the course still and although competing for places is unlikely a top 10 finish certainly is a good possibility



5.10 Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
Awaiting odds from some companies here who haven’t joined the party yet so will post more on this either later tonight or tomorrow morning
A competitive event but I’m taken by the two John Quinn runners (he won the race last year with Cockney Sparrow) – the favourite seems a bit too short
0.5 pts ew each Kashmir Peak and Scots Gaelic
– take 20/1 where available
Ignore Kashmir Peak’s Cheltenham run – he doesnt like the course and needs a flat track and reasonable ground – well weighted on his juvenile form last year. Scots Gaelic looked an improved perform,er last time and with Dean Pratt’s useful 7lb claim he comes here effectively on the same mark as he had then



5.45 Bumper

This race has thrown up some quality performers in the past and can rival Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper in terms of class.
The New One and My Tent of Yours were the 1-2 in 2012 and Tidal Bay showed a glimpse of what was to come when 2nd at 66/1 in 2006.
No bets here. I’m hoping to see an improved performance from Our Kaempfer who ran far too free in the Cheltenham bumper – jockey bookings appear to suggest he is the stable’s second string though. It seems like Alan King prefers to run his best young horses in the bumpers at this meeting rather than at Cheltenham. He won the mares race yesterday so the valu pick for me would be McCabe Creek around the 20/1 mark. I don’t think he is necessarily the stable’s second string – Wayne Hutchinson has a good association with the owners horses in the past. He looked a good prospect first time up chasing home Puisque Tu Pars and reopposes here. Better ground should suit and King seldom has them ready first time up so we can expect to see some improvement



Thanks for reading once more

Have a great National day whatever you back!


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Posted by on April 4, 2014 in Uncategorized


Aintree 2014 – day 2

Thursday’s blog selections saw Claret Cloak come closest in 3rd – Noel Fehily looked to be judging the race perfectly but weight probably just told close home. Warne came close to being a bet but the rain didn’t come and I held back a little there – his success just proves what an asset a quality amateur rider is in such a race
So the blog is running at a 4.75 pt loss on the meeting so far

Onto Friday’s card:

2.00 Novice Hurdle
Prices are here
Cheltenham Supreme novice form is represented here by the second, Josses Hill (should be suited more by this course) and the strong finishing fourth, Sgt Reckless. Against them we have two impressive handicap winners in Baltimore Rock and Art of Payroll – in both cases it’s hard to assess just who far ahead of their marks they were when they won. Amore Alato is consistent and will ensure a decent gallop but has already be shown to be a notch behind the top level. Throw in the classy flat performer, Mijhaar , back on a decent surface (exasperating horse to follow on the flat despite all of his ability though!) and this race is too hard to call for me




2.30 Mildmay Novice Chase

O’Faolains Boy was a great result for the blog when winning the RSA at Cheltenham. The way he and Smad Place pulled clear there suggested there were both Gold Cup horses next season and I hope to see him continue in the same vein here. At a price of around 9/4 or 5/2 I won’t be playing though – he owes me nothing and he had a hard enough race there – Barry Geraghty reported afterwards that he ran in snatches and didn’t feel as good as he did at Ascot. I am just a bit mindful that he may need more time to recover from that. Don Cossack fell in that race and Many Clouds was brought down. Many Clouds was behind O’Faolains Boy at Ascot and some will argue that the weight difference here will bring them close. For me though, Many Clouds was clearly second best there and needs softer ground to be seen at his best
Wonderful Charm’s best form comes at shorter trips and would need to see more evidence that this step up is what he needs.
The danger is Holywell, who came good at Cheltenham and Aintree last year and could be in the same vein again now. He travelled well within himself last time when winning a handicap at Cheltenham (looked totally the opposite when needing all of McCoy’s strength to win at Doncater)

An interesting race to watch but NO BET



3.05 Melling Chase
Latest odds:

Ballynagour won a handicap so impressively at Cheltenham that he could easily be up to this higher grade. It was suggested then that he was best when fresh so turning out again after only 3 weeks is a bit mystifying.
Boston Bob looked sure to win the RSA last year until falling and that form looks good now after the winner of that race, Lord Windermere won the Gold Cup! Boston Bob hasn’t really built on that this year though and mixing between chases and hurdles seems to indicate that connections aren’t sure what is best for him now
Module is the solid form horse and the one to beat after his third behind Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham. This is half a mile further but he runs like he should appreciate that. The stable had a winner on Thursday with Parsnip Pete so that augurs well also.
He’s almost a bet at 9/2 but not quite!



3.40 Topham Chase

The ‘mini’ Grand National isn’t far behind the big race in terms of spectacle. 30 runners compete over the full National course here but it’s significantly shorter trip. With so many runners, luck in running will be necessary here but the two I most like are:
Big Fella Thanks. At the age of 12, he’s plenty old enough for this (an age that isn’t good for stats) but I doubt many will come to this race having the wealth of experience over the track that he does. He should have been in this race when younger but connections tried to persevere with the Grand National. Twice he appeared a likely winner of that only to run out of petrol in the home straight. I hope they haven’t left this too late in life for him but this always looked like the race he was made for

Giorgio Quercus. Experience over these fences is an asset and this one was performing well in this race last year until being brought down 4 out when still in with every chance. He was brought back at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago and ran a solid 6th despite being a bit fresh early on – he may have finished closer still but for a bad peck at the top of the hill fence. 25/1 looks too big
1pt ew Big Fella Thanks 16/1 – take 16/1 with firms offering ¼ odds 12345
1pt ew Giorgio Quercus 25/1 Boylesports ¼ 12345 (25/1 ¼ 1234 or 20/1 ¼ 12345 are also acceptable)


4.15 Sefton Novices Hurdle

Cheltenham novice hurdle form doesn’t always work out in this and there have been some big priced winners over the years. My suspicion is that the Albert Bartlett and the Neptune can be a tough test for novices at this stage of their career and the experience isn’t always recovered from by this meeting. Killala Quay represents Neptune form here and while it was a fine run, it could be tough to come back from that and follow up over half a mile further
The favourite here, Seeyouatmidnight, didn’t go to the Festival and has done little wrong this year, rising through the ranks and remaining unbeaten since a 66/1 success at Kelso. He’s a front runner who is tough and hard to pass but runs here on quicker ground than he was winning off over the winter.
On his second win, he accounted for odds on shot Racing Pulse, who is of great interest to me now he gets back on a decent surface. He also missed Cheltenham and comes here a fresh horse. I like his chances here
At big odds, Port Melon also is one to watch. He was going to run at Cheltenham until careering into the rails before the start of the Albert Bartlett and giving Daryl Jacob a long holiday with injury in the process. He should enjoy the ground and the trip and there was enough evidence from his one hurdles start before Christmas to suggest this ex point to pointer has a future at this game
It’s hard to know what to make of Capote who has only beaten 5 fairly ordinary rivals in two hurdle successes

1pt ew Racing Pulse 14/1 (general but look for firms offering ¼ rather than 1/5 odds 123)
0.5 pts ew Port Melon 25/1 (Stan james)



4.50 Hcap Hurdle
As much as I have looked at this race, nothing is jumping out. Irish raider, Zabana has a progressive profile but the UK handicapper doesn’t seem to have been that lenient with his mark. A wide open race I am happy to leave alone




5.25 Mares Bumper

AP McCoy is an eyecatching booking for Alan Swinbank’s Molly Cat, and he’s a trainer always to be feared in bumpers.
But despite her penalty, The Govaness is the choice. She’s mixed it with the boys earlier in the year and ran very well against them – something that few others can claim in the race. She then followed up in a mares bumper at Cheltenham which I feel could have been stronger than this race.
She’s been kept back since then and looks to have been targeted for this. I think she should be the favourite so will be playing at the odds that are available


1.5pts ew The Govaness 10/1 (Stan James) or even better 10/1 ¼ 1234 888bet if anyone can get that

Thanks for reading once more and good luck!


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Posted by on April 3, 2014 in Uncategorized


Aintree meeting 2014 – day 1

The Grand National is the centrepiece of the 3 day Aintree meeting but there is some fine racing to back it up. Thursday’s card has some top notch entries but it’s a shame a few who looked possible to run have dropped out – many of the races have more of a ‘race to watch only’ feel about them now
Ground is currently good or good to soft depending on which track is being run on but there is a need to watch the weather closely – rain clouds seem to be never too far away this week if forecasts are correct
Many runners will come here after a last run at the Cheltenham Festival – many can solidify their reputation here but others will have peaked there and it can prove costly to expect form to always be upheld.
The Mildmay course, on which most races will be run, is a completely different track to Cheltenham – no undulations to deal with and built more for speed. The National course (used for the Foxhunters on Thursday, Topham on Friday and the Grand National on Saturday) is unlike anything else – some will adapt well and others will hate it.

Onto Thursday’s card:

2.00 4yo hurdle
Prices comparisons here
The Aintree version of the Triumph hurdle but no Triumph winner (Tiger Roll) attending this year. Guitar Pete is a solid performer who came out best of these here then in 3rd but many will consider Callipto to be an unlucky 4th after Daryl Jacob lost his irons as the race was just heating up. Callipto holds Activial on early season form – but that one skipped Cheltenham purposefully for this and could come here fresher.
Fox Norton was an Ante Post pick for me in the Triumph – he didn’t run in it but his form wasn’t particularly advertised by Broughton and Royal Irish Hussar there
At a bigger price I’m hoping to see another big run from Hawk High who won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. He did the blog a big favour there and won that race well, being close to the pace throughout and quickening nicely up the hill. As long as the ground doesn’t get too soft I think he’s the type to go on improving and is a touch overpriced here
Hawk High

0.5 pts ew Hawk High 14/1 (Stan James and Coral who both offer ¼ 123)


2.30 Betfred Bowl
Prices here

I’m one of the original members of the First Lieutenant fan club and he was a successful selection for the blog in this race last year where Menorah and Silviniaco Conti were among his victims. It’s unfortunate he missed this year’s Gold Cup where conditions could have suited him well. Silviniaco Conti finished 4th there but had a hard race and that has to be a concern – when he did win at this meeting as a novice he had missed the festival and came here as a fresh horse.
The danger is Dynaste though, who won the novice race at this meeting last year and comes here after Ryanair Chase success at The Festival
I think First Lieutenant or Dynaste will win but won’t be playing at current odds of 2/1 and 3/1 respectively


3.05 Aintree Hurdle

Would have been a lovely race if Annie Power had come over from Ireland but in her absence this does look a penalty kick for The New One – 2/5 isn’t my sort of price one
Could be plenty of competition for second – Rock on Ruby and Grandouet have the best hurdling form from the past but both have been chasing instead this year and that could level the playing field with the others. I have no great view who will come out top for the runner up berth


3.40 Foxhunters Chase

The first race of the meeting over the classic National fences.
Mossey Joe is well ahead of the field in terms of class and rating and as long as the ground stays good or good to soft it could well be a case of ‘if he jumps round he wins’.
If rain does come Warne becomes a bigger threat. A slightly unlucky 4th in this race last year he now has the services of Sam Waley Cohen on board who has such an excellent record over these fences.
It seems slightly strange to see such a race with ¼ odds 1234 being offered at some firms and there could well be a decent angle with this tomorrow if money comes down for the fav and pushes others out
Cool Friend probably hit the front too soon in the race last year and has performed well at Aintree before – this mare appears most of the big prices
For the moment it’s ‘no bet’ but that may change tomorrow



4.15 Red Rum Hcap Chase
Prices here:

Traditionally novices do well in this race and Grand Annual form from Cheltenham is a big influence. Claret Cloak fits both of those stats and although 4 pounds higher than he was there when a close third, he may have been an unlucky loser after a critical blunder 2 fences out . Good or good to soft suits – as does a strong pace – something he should get with the likes of Arnaud and Sew on Target in the field. The race may favour lower weights in the past but I can’t really warm to those at the bottom of the handicap here. Claret Cloak has always looked a classy individual and I believe this course will suit him better than Cheltenham
I’m not keen on Paul Nicholls’ runner Sound Investment here whose mark has risen to 140 after two easy wins in weak races.

2pts ew Claret Cloak 9/2 (Totesport, Betfred) *9/2 already gone after a few minutes of posting – would take 4/1 also*


4.50 Manifesto Chase

Only 5 runners but very competitive. I could make a case for them all.
Oscar Whisky has to come back from a first fence fall at Cheltenham which prevents me following him here. Western Warhorse has to prove his Arkle win was no fluke over half a mile further. Really not sure if a step up in trip is right for Dodging Bullets. Good ground seemed to bring about plenty of improvement in Uxizandre last time – and it probably will in Fox Appeal too.
It all adds up to NO BET



5.25 3ml hcap hurdle
Latest odds:

2 against the field here:
Novice and those lower down the weights have a decent record in this race. Spirit of Shankly fits that criteria and seems the sort who will appreacite a step up in trip and some decent ground.
Any Given Day represents a stable that knows all about getting winners at this meeting. He was a failure at chasing and lost his way a bit over hurdles last season after encountering heavy ground. A recent bumper win showed he is no back number yet and his hurdles mark has dropped considerably to an enticing looking 140. The price just looks too big here to ignore
any given day
1pt ew Any Given Day @20/1 (coral) – but 16/1 will be equally acceptable elsewhere
1pt ew Spirit of Shankly 14/1 (generally available)


As usual comments are most welcome
Good luck with whatever you support and thanks for reading

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Posted by on April 2, 2014 in Uncategorized



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