Monthly Archives: April 2014

A blank day for the blog on Friday unless anyone managed to get the first 4 bet on The Govaness in the last (with a firm that I cannot get a bet on personally so won’t include for resulting purposes) – she looked to come with a winning run but the combination of her penalty and losing ground throughout on the outside didn’t help close home. So unless anyone managed to avail themselves of that offer we end up with a 10 pt loss on the day.
Anyone who followed 3 mile handicap chase form at Cheltenham might have had a field day with the 1-2 from there, Holywell and Ma Filleule, both running out convincing winners. Neither would look out of place in next season’s Gold Cup on their performances today.

So now we come to Saturday with the Grand National the showpiece on the card:

1.30 Mersey Novices Hurdle
Odds here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/13:30/winner
surprisingly not many firms offering an enhanced ¼ odds a place on this race at time of posting

Cheltenham Supreme Novice hurdle form was highly advertised by Josses Hill and Sgt Reckless today and Wilde Blue Yonder represents the best of that here. He ran a solid race there and may well have won two others earlier in the year but for last fence falls. Now he has a clean round behind him, it has to be hoped he can go on from that and the extra half mile could bring some further improvement.
Chief threat for me is Oscar Hoof, who hasn’t been running at such a high level but impressed greatly when winning at Kempton last time – seeing off a strong travelling challenger in great style . It’s notable that Barry Geraghty picks him instead of Volnay De Thaix.
Not quite enough value in the market to tempt me in right now

2.00 Maghull Novices Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/14:05/winner

The Aintree version of Cheltenham’s Arkle is a tight looking race where the isn’t much between the principals.
Trifolium came out best in the Arkle but Balder Success and Hinterland both dodged that race (the latter having an unfortunate unseat in the Champion Chase instead)
Next Sensation and Simply Ned are very progressive types who have come up through handicaps and deserve their chance at this level. The former is an exciting front runner who should be better suited to this track than at Cheltenham.
Simply Ned has improved all through the season and could be the sort who will prosper with the gallop that will be set here. He is the selection on the basis that I don’t think his level of form is too dissimilar to his main rivals – but his price compared to them is much too high. It’s no shock he missed Cheltenham – the Richards stable have always had greater success at this course

Recommendation
1pt win Simply Ned 14/1 (365, Totesport, Betfred)

2.50 Silver Cross Stayers Hurdle
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/14:50/winner

Aintree version of the World Hurdle sees At Fishers Cross (3rd in that) leading the market.
He is much the likeliest winner for me but I can see why Corals look to want to take him on at 15/8.
I’m not sure where the pace will come from in this race so it could be a muddling affair. He has had jumping problems in the past but it was a much cleaner display at Cheltenham where he was well beaten by two hugely talented rivals – but was clearly ahead of the rest.
I think he could be the leading 3 mile hurdler next year if his jumping is sharpened as so many of his rivals may be changing trip or going chasing.
It’s not a betting race on this occasion for me

3.30 Hcap Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/15:25/winner

No surprise to see Victor Hewgo favourite here – his form is closely tied in with Holywell and Western Warhorse who have boosted it considerably since. He may be a bit flattered by some of this but is clearly the one to beat. This is a competitive race though and odds are quite short around 7/2
Unioniste represents last seasons novice chase crop which doesn’t look bad now after recent performances of Lord Windermere and Boston Bob. His weight could be prohibitive here though,
The interesting one lower down the handicap is Saint Are, who has an excellent record at this meeting, winning twice at the Mildmay course. He runs off an 8lb lower mark than when successful in this race in 2012 and I would be inclined to forgive his pulled up effort at Cheltenham last time – a course he has never liked
9/1 available there now and if he gets to a double figure price I might have to play

4.15 Crabbies Grand National
The highlight of the meeting and here are the latest odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/16:15/winner

I covered the race more thoroughly when the 5 day decs came out on Monday here : https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2014/03/31/grand-national-2014/

This really is a race to hunt for value, particularly on each way betting with bookmakers falling over themselves to compete for best price and trying to tempt punters in with 5 or even 6 places. This really isn’t profitable for them to do so take advantage if you can get good win odds and extra places – its often going to be a loss leader for companies who hope to bring in new customers through the year in what is one of their biggest ‘shop windows’.
Make sure you take a price – most firms wil offer best odds guaranteed in case the SP is bigger – but the likelihood is that prices will shorten once on course bookmakers control the odds. So bet early take the price and get the value while it’s there!

The expected rain hasn’t really materialised since then so that’s against two stats picks – Hawkes Point and Mountainous
This leaves old Welsh National protagonists, Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude as the chief picks but on a basis of value I prefer the former for reasons stated in that piece, (Monbeg’s rider Paul Carberry will have to pass the doctor in the morning to ride as well after a fall in the Topham today). I think he should be more like 6/1 for the race but 10/1 is being pushed out there again this evening

I can understand why money has come for The Package today after he chased home today’s winners, Holywell and Ma Filleule last time at Cheltenham. That was a fairly distant third though and I would rather judge him on the horse that finished around him than the two who were clearly dominant. When he was 33/1 he was interesting but quotes of less than 20/1 for ahorse who didn’t really seem to enjoy the fences on his previous try here aren’t particularly tempting)

So I’ll be sticking with my previous recommendations here
2.5 pts ew Teaforthree (now possible to get 10/1 ¼ 123456! with BetVictor – best win odds and best place odds is hard to knock)
0.75 pts ew Vintage Star 66/1 now available with some firms offering extra places)
(1pt ew Soll was advised in January but he was balloted out of the race which means we get money back on that bet)
*MORNING UPDATE – Extra Recomemndation *
1.5pts Swing Bill @4/1 to finish in first 10 – this market only offered on William Hill and the Betfair Exchange right now. In 6 attempts over the course, this old veteran has jumped round every time and the only time he didnt complete was a pulling up on very heavy ground in the Becher Chase. He’s probably one of the safest conveyances in the race and this price seems based on his win price rather than his course record. His November run over the course showed he has some zest for the course still and although competing for places is unlikely a top 10 finish certainly is a good possibility

5.10 Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
Awaiting odds from some companies here who haven’t joined the party yet so will post more on this either later tonight or tomorrow morning
MORNING UPDATE
A competitive event but I’m taken by the two John Quinn runners (he won the race last year with Cockney Sparrow) – the favourite seems a bit too short
RECOMMENDATIONS
0.5 pts ew each Kashmir Peak and Scots Gaelic – take 20/1 where available
Ignore Kashmir Peak’s Cheltenham run – he doesnt like the course and needs a flat track and reasonable ground – well weighted on his juvenile form last year. Scots Gaelic looked an improved perform,er last time and with Dean Pratt’s useful 7lb claim he comes here effectively on the same mark as he had then

5.45 Bumper
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/17:45/winner

This race has thrown up some quality performers in the past and can rival Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper in terms of class.
The New One and My Tent of Yours were the 1-2 in 2012 and Tidal Bay showed a glimpse of what was to come when 2nd at 66/1 in 2006.
No bets here. I’m hoping to see an improved performance from Our Kaempfer who ran far too free in the Cheltenham bumper – jockey bookings appear to suggest he is the stable’s second string though. It seems like Alan King prefers to run his best young horses in the bumpers at this meeting rather than at Cheltenham. He won the mares race yesterday so the valu pick for me would be McCabe Creek around the 20/1 mark. I don’t think he is necessarily the stable’s second string – Wayne Hutchinson has a good association with the owners horses in the past. He looked a good prospect first time up chasing home Puisque Tu Pars and reopposes here. Better ground should suit and King seldom has them ready first time up so we can expect to see some improvement

Thanks for reading once more

Have a great National day whatever you back!

Paul

Thursday’s blog selections saw Claret Cloak come closest in 3rd – Noel Fehily looked to be judging the race perfectly but weight probably just told close home. Warne came close to being a bet but the rain didn’t come and I held back a little there – his success just proves what an asset a quality amateur rider is in such a race
So the blog is running at a 4.75 pt loss on the meeting so far

Onto Friday’s card:

2.00 Novice Hurdle
Prices are here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/14:00/winner
Cheltenham Supreme novice form is represented here by the second, Josses Hill (should be suited more by this course) and the strong finishing fourth, Sgt Reckless. Against them we have two impressive handicap winners in Baltimore Rock and Art of Payroll – in both cases it’s hard to assess just who far ahead of their marks they were when they won. Amore Alato is consistent and will ensure a decent gallop but has already be shown to be a notch behind the top level. Throw in the classy flat performer, Mijhaar , back on a decent surface (exasperating horse to follow on the flat despite all of his ability though!) and this race is too hard to call for me

NO BET

2.30 Mildmay Novice Chase
Pricelists: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/14:30/winner

O’Faolains Boy was a great result for the blog when winning the RSA at Cheltenham. The way he and Smad Place pulled clear there suggested there were both Gold Cup horses next season and I hope to see him continue in the same vein here. At a price of around 9/4 or 5/2 I won’t be playing though – he owes me nothing and he had a hard enough race there – Barry Geraghty reported afterwards that he ran in snatches and didn’t feel as good as he did at Ascot. I am just a bit mindful that he may need more time to recover from that. Don Cossack fell in that race and Many Clouds was brought down. Many Clouds was behind O’Faolains Boy at Ascot and some will argue that the weight difference here will bring them close. For me though, Many Clouds was clearly second best there and needs softer ground to be seen at his best
Wonderful Charm’s best form comes at shorter trips and would need to see more evidence that this step up is what he needs.
The danger is Holywell, who came good at Cheltenham and Aintree last year and could be in the same vein again now. He travelled well within himself last time when winning a handicap at Cheltenham (looked totally the opposite when needing all of McCoy’s strength to win at Doncater)

An interesting race to watch but NO BET

3.05 Melling Chase
Latest odds: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/15:05/winner

Ballynagour won a handicap so impressively at Cheltenham that he could easily be up to this higher grade. It was suggested then that he was best when fresh so turning out again after only 3 weeks is a bit mystifying.
Boston Bob looked sure to win the RSA last year until falling and that form looks good now after the winner of that race, Lord Windermere won the Gold Cup! Boston Bob hasn’t really built on that this year though and mixing between chases and hurdles seems to indicate that connections aren’t sure what is best for him now
Module is the solid form horse and the one to beat after his third behind Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham. This is half a mile further but he runs like he should appreciate that. The stable had a winner on Thursday with Parsnip Pete so that augurs well also.
He’s almost a bet at 9/2 but not quite!

3.40 Topham Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/15:40/winner

The ‘mini’ Grand National isn’t far behind the big race in terms of spectacle. 30 runners compete over the full National course here but it’s significantly shorter trip. With so many runners, luck in running will be necessary here but the two I most like are:
Big Fella Thanks. At the age of 12, he’s plenty old enough for this (an age that isn’t good for stats) but I doubt many will come to this race having the wealth of experience over the track that he does. He should have been in this race when younger but connections tried to persevere with the Grand National. Twice he appeared a likely winner of that only to run out of petrol in the home straight. I hope they haven’t left this too late in life for him but this always looked like the race he was made for

Giorgio Quercus. Experience over these fences is an asset and this one was performing well in this race last year until being brought down 4 out when still in with every chance. He was brought back at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago and ran a solid 6th despite being a bit fresh early on – he may have finished closer still but for a bad peck at the top of the hill fence. 25/1 looks too big
Recommendations
1pt ew Big Fella Thanks 16/1 – take 16/1 with firms offering ¼ odds 12345
1pt ew Giorgio Quercus 25/1 Boylesports ¼ 12345 (25/1 ¼ 1234 or 20/1 ¼ 12345 are also acceptable)

4.15 Sefton Novices Hurdle
Prices; http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/16:15/winner

Cheltenham novice hurdle form doesn’t always work out in this and there have been some big priced winners over the years. My suspicion is that the Albert Bartlett and the Neptune can be a tough test for novices at this stage of their career and the experience isn’t always recovered from by this meeting. Killala Quay represents Neptune form here and while it was a fine run, it could be tough to come back from that and follow up over half a mile further
The favourite here, Seeyouatmidnight, didn’t go to the Festival and has done little wrong this year, rising through the ranks and remaining unbeaten since a 66/1 success at Kelso. He’s a front runner who is tough and hard to pass but runs here on quicker ground than he was winning off over the winter.
On his second win, he accounted for odds on shot Racing Pulse, who is of great interest to me now he gets back on a decent surface. He also missed Cheltenham and comes here a fresh horse. I like his chances here
At big odds, Port Melon also is one to watch. He was going to run at Cheltenham until careering into the rails before the start of the Albert Bartlett and giving Daryl Jacob a long holiday with injury in the process. He should enjoy the ground and the trip and there was enough evidence from his one hurdles start before Christmas to suggest this ex point to pointer has a future at this game
It’s hard to know what to make of Capote who has only beaten 5 fairly ordinary rivals in two hurdle successes

Recommendations
1pt ew Racing Pulse 14/1 (general but look for firms offering ¼ rather than 1/5 odds 123)
0.5 pts ew Port Melon 25/1 (Stan james)

4.50 Hcap Hurdle
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/16:50/winner
As much as I have looked at this race, nothing is jumping out. Irish raider, Zabana has a progressive profile but the UK handicapper doesn’t seem to have been that lenient with his mark. A wide open race I am happy to leave alone

NO BET

5.25 Mares Bumper
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/17:25/winner

AP McCoy is an eyecatching booking for Alan Swinbank’s Molly Cat, and he’s a trainer always to be feared in bumpers.
But despite her penalty, The Govaness is the choice. She’s mixed it with the boys earlier in the year and ran very well against them – something that few others can claim in the race. She then followed up in a mares bumper at Cheltenham which I feel could have been stronger than this race.
She’s been kept back since then and looks to have been targeted for this. I think she should be the favourite so will be playing at the odds that are available

Recommendation
1.5pts ew The Govaness 10/1 (Stan James) or even better 10/1 ¼ 1234 888bet if anyone can get that

Thanks for reading once more and good luck!

Paul