Monthly Archives: July 2013

A successful day for the blog on Tuesday with Garswood swooping late and Harris Tweed being able to control the race as I hoped at a lovely double figure price – giving a handsome profit on the day.

I didn’t see Wednesday as a great betting day but some thoughts for Thursday’s tv races below

2.15

When this race used to be the Extel Handicap in years gone by, Luca Cumani would always be feared. His Ajmany doesnt look the Group winner in waiting that he used to throw here in the past though and along with current fav Code of Honour they don’t appeal at available odds after the handicapper has upped them both for recent wins.

There are two bigger prices that are more noteworthy and will be backing both ew. 

King George River 16/1. Was watching this one with interest last weekend in a much better race at York on his return from an injury sustained while giving subsequent French Derby victor Intello a good race at Newmarket. It may have been the fast ground or lack of a recent run but I got the distinct impression he was given an easy time with a view to something else.  My immediate thought was that his handicap mark of 103  could be on lenient side still and it’s notable for me that he has turned out again here so soon – Fallon on board rather than Tylicki now and less jar in the ground.

Cruck Realta is also overpriced at 25/1 now the ground is a bit easier and warrants support. She has run well against decent types this season and conditions were against her last time. I’d rather judge her on some earlier season performances here – on her run on good to soft earlier in the season she split the now 100+ rated pair of Contributer and yesterday’s Gordon Stakes winner, Cap O Rushes. Her mark of 95 tomorrow looks good in that respect and I think she is a better filly when the word ‘firm’ doesnt figure in the going

2.45

Godolphin’s Figure of Speech is too short for me here. Granted he may well improve on his July Stakes 2nd but he doesnt have much in hand on Jallota ( a consistent and slowly improving  type whose action suggests he may be better on ground less quick than he encountered there) .

While I think Jallota is quite big at 10/1, there is a worry he may have been overraced lately. Of slightly more interest is Andhesontherun at 16/1+. After staying on well over Sandown’s stiff 5 behind Rizeena, it wasnt entirely surprising to see them go too fast for him in the Windsor Castle at Ascot, but he still wasnt beaten far on the ‘wrong’ side of the track. This 6 furlong trip looks much better and I feel he is about double the price he really should be here.

3.15 The Goodwood Cup is wide open and I can make a case for nearly everything here. Nothing appealing as a betting proposition

3.45 Lady Cecil’s Wild Coco may well outclass these but taking close to Evens on her well being first time up doesnt appeal. Instead a small each way on last year’s second Jehannedarc is recommended. Perfectly willing to excuse her last run on ground that was too fast – here it should suit better and the trip holds no worries. 11/1 ew with  1/4 1st 3 is out there and worth taking some of.

Good luck once more!

Paul

A few too many thoughts for Day 1 to tweet but here’s my take on the 4 tv races on Tuesday, the first day of the meeting.

There’s no doubt that Goodwood is a beautiful racecourse – great for a picnic and a glass of Pimms in the sunshine but not always the best place for betting for me with hard luck stories aplenty in the bigger fields.

Wednesday’s card already looks a no bet today for the moment but here goes for day 1 ; ground has eased slightly over the weekend to good/good to firm in places and rain is expected tomorrow morning which could wipe the ‘firm’ out the description totally

1.55 Locally trained Blue Surf is the one to beat – back over his optimum trip and on a course he has performed well over in the past. 8/1 ew looks a perfectly fair price to take – any extra rain tomorrow will be a bonus to his chances.  Strictly Silver should benefit from a drop back in trip as well and could be an outsider whose chances are greater than the 20/1 currently on offer

2.30 Wide open affair and could make a case for nearly all of the runners – most of whom ran at Royal Ascot. I think Ambiance needs quick ground and don’t think he will get it. Many of these clashed in the Windsor Castle – Supplicant came out best there and Ryan Moore has a very healthy 75% strike rate for Richard Fahey this year so far. He was not dominant enough there though to suggest that 3/1 quotes are screaming to be taken. What value there is lies more with Sleeper King at 12/1 (corals completely duck at 15/2 ) and Justice Day at 16/1. Both were beaten about 3 lengths in that race but both showed a lot of speed which could be better suited to this track – and they can cope with any softer ground. Small ew on both is the recommendation.

3.05 Garswood is the one of interest here particularly with Ryan Moore now on board Richard Fahey’s Free Hcap winner. He didnt look totally happy on the fast ground at Ascot and think tomorrows conditions could show him in his best light again over what seems his optimum trip right now. Value is disappearing though and yesterdays quotes of 8/1 now seem a distant memory with 6/1 currently top price.

3.40 This competitive handicap is a bit of an Ebor trial. Oriental Fox is probably the one to beat – he ran well here earlier in the year and his one poor run this season could be attributed to faster ground than he’ll see here. He has run from the front here before but doesn’t have to lead. The pace angle of this race quite interests me as aside from the favourite, I could see Harris Tweed getting an uncontested lead up front with no one else wanting to take him on. That fact makes him the value ew bet at 20/1 and any further ease in the ground is again a positive factor

Thanks for reading, comments are always welcome and good luck with whatever you back

Paul