Another quick run through for three races on Doncasters’ Leger day card that are of interest tomorrow:
2.05 Estidhkaar is obviously the one to beat but I was quite surprised by the price differential between his two biggest rivals – Belardo and Glenalmond – which I think must be trainer related to some degree.
Glenalmond still looked a bit raw when staying on nicely into 4th in the Gimcrack last time. He gave an impression to me that he could be the best horse in that race ultimately and the step up to 7 furlongs should suit (as it did for his full brother Wootton Bassett). Only just ahead of him that day were two rivals who had previously just finished ahead of Belardo in the July Stakes. So the relative quotes of 11/4 and 7/1 seem strange to me and I’m happy to take the one I think is wrong – Karl Burke’s 2yo strike rate this season speaks volumes so he shouldn’t be underestimated.
1.5pts ew Glenalmond 7/1
2.40 Don’t be fooled into thinking the Portland Hcap is a 5 furlong race – there are another 140 yards to cover which makes it nearer 6 then 5.
So I’m favouring two bigger prices who I think will be ideally suited by this ‘in between ‘ trip.
Seeking Magic has something to make up on Muthmir and Intrinsic from Stewards Cup form but he did a bit too much too early there when having to race on his own. He is ideally suited by a strong pace he can come off and with Addictive Dream and Bogart drawn quite close I’m hopeful they can give him the tow he needs.
A similar path into the race may also help Boomerang Bob who ran a fine race in the Wokingham and has dropped down in the weights enough to be a contender here. (Back on a straight course after two runs round Chester’s awkward turns)
Hopefully should see some firms offering an extra place here later but for now happy to recommend both at the standard ¼ 1234
0.5 pts ew Seeking Magic 20/1
0.5 pts ew Boomerang Bob 25/1 or better
3.50 The centrepiece of the card – the last British classic of the season – the St Leger
The ground has been a concern for the fav Kingston Hill most of the week but he now seems a likely runner with trainer happy that it isn’t too fast.
The trip is more of a concern for me. Despite his second in the Derby, I’ve always pictured him as more of a 10 furlong type and I do have my doubts about him getting home in a strongly run stamina test.
Snow Sky is another who may be at his best at 12 furlongs and is pushing his boundaries here
So I am inclined to look outside the obvious favs here and think Scotland is the value each way pick. He showed that stamina was his forte when coming from off a strong pace to be third at Royal Ascot (Snow Sky behind). Connections don’t think the track suited so well at Goodwood last time and he ran much more prominently. I hope to see him kept a bit further back tomorrow and be delivered in the final two furlongs. I’m quite hopeful in these circumstances he can reverse the form with those that beat him there
Somewhat’s price is also a little big for me around 33/1 on that Goodwood run (ground too soft for him last time). His Eclipse 3rd (Kingston Hill 4th) is widely regarded as a bit of a fluke but there’s enough in his form on decent ground to think he shouldn’t really be the price he is
0.75 pts ew Scotland 20/1
0.5pts ew Somewhat 33/1
A few near misses last week but some good place prices would have been rewarded for anyone combining in multiple bets (the less said about Havana Cooler though the better!)
Good luck with whatever you back
Comment as always welcome – thanks for reading
Paul
thefinalfence 