Monthly Archives: September 2014

St Leger day – Sat 13 Sept

Another quick run through for three races on Doncasters’ Leger day card that are of interest tomorrow:
2.05 Estidhkaar is obviously the one to beat but I was quite surprised by the price differential between his two biggest rivals – Belardo and Glenalmond – which I think must be trainer related to some degree.
Glenalmond still looked a bit raw when staying on nicely into 4th in the Gimcrack last time. He gave an impression to me that he could be the best horse in that race ultimately and the step up to 7 furlongs should suit (as it did for his full brother Wootton Bassett). Only just ahead of him that day were two rivals who had previously just finished ahead of Belardo in the July Stakes. So the relative quotes of 11/4 and 7/1 seem strange to me and I’m happy to take the one I think is wrong – Karl Burke’s 2yo strike rate this season speaks volumes so he shouldn’t be underestimated.

1.5pts ew Glenalmond 7/1

2.40 Don’t be fooled into thinking the Portland Hcap is a 5 furlong race – there are another 140 yards to cover which makes it nearer 6 then 5.
So I’m favouring two bigger prices who I think will be ideally suited by this ‘in between ‘ trip.
Seeking Magic has something to make up on Muthmir and Intrinsic from Stewards Cup form but he did a bit too much too early there when having to race on his own. He is ideally suited by a strong pace he can come off and with Addictive Dream and Bogart drawn quite close I’m hopeful they can give him the tow he needs.
A similar path into the race may also help Boomerang Bob who ran a fine race in the Wokingham and has dropped down in the weights enough to be a contender here. (Back on a straight course after two runs round Chester’s awkward turns)
Hopefully should see some firms offering an extra place here later but for now happy to recommend both at the standard ¼ 1234
0.5 pts ew Seeking Magic 20/1
0.5 pts ew Boomerang Bob 25/1 or better

3.50 The centrepiece of the card – the last British classic of the season – the St Leger
The ground has been a concern for the fav Kingston Hill most of the week but he now seems a likely runner with trainer happy that it isn’t too fast.
The trip is more of a concern for me. Despite his second in the Derby, I’ve always pictured him as more of a 10 furlong type and I do have my doubts about him getting home in a strongly run stamina test.
Snow Sky is another who may be at his best at 12 furlongs and is pushing his boundaries here
So I am inclined to look outside the obvious favs here and think Scotland is the value each way pick. He showed that stamina was his forte when coming from off a strong pace to be third at Royal Ascot (Snow Sky behind). Connections don’t think the track suited so well at Goodwood last time and he ran much more prominently. I hope to see him kept a bit further back tomorrow and be delivered in the final two furlongs. I’m quite hopeful in these circumstances he can reverse the form with those that beat him there
Somewhat’s price is also a little big for me around 33/1 on that Goodwood run (ground too soft for him last time). His Eclipse 3rd (Kingston Hill 4th) is widely regarded as a bit of a fluke but there’s enough in his form on decent ground to think he shouldn’t really be the price he is
0.75 pts ew Scotland 20/1
0.5pts ew Somewhat 33/1

A few near misses last week but some good place prices would have been rewarded for anyone combining in multiple bets (the less said about Havana Cooler though the better!)

Good luck with whatever you back
Comment as always welcome – thanks for reading


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Posted by on September 12, 2014 in Uncategorized


Sat 6th Sept – Ascot and Haydock

Quick Summary for Saturday 5th September:

3.30 ASCOT
Competitive handicap with many likely improvers. Not sure if Penhill got home over a longer trip last time and he remains on my radar – but maybe might need more ease in the ground.
I’m backing GWAFA ew 12/1. Eyecatching jockey booking coming across from Ireland for one ride. Think this one could improve plenty on his last run and double figure odds are too generous

1pt ew Gwafa 12/1

Much depends on whether Haydock gets overnight rain here but as long as it doesn’t get much (in which case he may not run) then I have to be with HAVANA COOLER at 5/1.Narrowly beaten by Van Percy last time who has franked the form since – this looks a weaker race.

1.5 pts ew Havana Cooler 5/1

Richard Hughes has formed a great relationship with Sole Power but it’s hard to get away from the fact he has never won over 6 furlongs. It’s often a tall order for 5 furlong specialists to perform as well at 6 as the pace of the race can be so different.
MUSIC MASTER was my fancy for the Nunthorpe and gets the vote here – he was pulled out of that race with a bad scope but can’t imagine Henry Candy would run him if he wasn’t 100%. He stil has improvement over this trip and was unlucky not to be much closer at Royal Ascot but for being on wrong side of the course. 8/1 with 1/5 odds and an extra 4th place availablle at Hills and Corals.
BACCARAT is an interesting outsider and was too big earlier in the week at 40/1. Draw could have been better but he shouldn’t be far away on official ratings and is still of some interest if anyone offers over 20/1

1pt ew MUSIC MASTER 8/1 (Hills/Coral)

Two took the eye, MIZZOU is from a nice family and is improving with each race – the extra distance should suit well . But at more than double his odds, INTENSE TANGO is the main selection at 12/1. Karl Burke’s runners are often overpriced but he’s proving his worth as a trainer to follow this year and this one is also improving with each run. The 3lb claim could be vital

0.75 pts ew INTENSE TANGO 12/1

Sorry for the shorter than normal blog but a bit too much to Tweet here!

Good luck


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Posted by on September 5, 2014 in Uncategorized

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