Monthly Archives: August 2014

Day 4 – York Ebor Meeting

The final day of the Ebor meeting approaches with the highlight at 3.50
If forecasts are correct we should have had the most of the rain by now so going should be good, if not slightly on the fast side of good
Three races are of interest to me:

2.40 Some promising types who may still have something in hand of the handicapper here. ..and there is also Uradel, sent over by Willie Mullins with only low grade French form who could be literally anything (the market should tell us more tomorrow)
Connecticut, Battersea and Penhill head the list of types who could be ahead of their ratings . If the first named wins he may even be mooted as a St Leger possible. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these triumph, it is Penhill who gets the nod from a price perspective.
His trainer is less well known but most capable and I think that’s the only reason he is nearly double the price of the other two at 12/1
0.75 pts ew Penhill 12/1 (general)

3.15 There’s no standout star in this year’s Gimcrack for me. Baitha Alga won well at Royal Ascot but nothing has come out since to advertise the form, while Beacon may have been unlucky at Goodwood but the opposition was not that great.
Jungle Cat holds arguably the best 6 furlong form for me and shouldn’t be dismissed but I like the chances of two Northern runners here who are totally unexposed.
Bryan Smart has trained some good youngsters in the past and I doubt he would run his unbeaten Fendale here unless he thought he was up to the task. This is a league higher than he has competed in , but his victim last time, Teruntum Star, also runs here. This suggests that it was a fair race they competed in last time
Glenalmond is the other. A full brother to Group 1 winning Wootton Bassett, he was far from the finished article on his debut. Karl Burke was narrowly touched off in the Acomb Stakes earlier in the week with another of his juveniles – and he has a useful string this year. I find it fascinating here that connections have passed up a chance of running this horse of a very generous looking mark of 75 to go straight for this higher grade
1pt win Fendale 10/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5 pts win Glenalmond 208/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills, Boyles)


3.50 My favourite flat race of the year – the Ebor H’cap -and as mentioned earlier in the week, Pallasator ticks all of the boxes for me. I’m not concerned about his high draw while they favour the middle of the home straight (Salutation narrow loser from stall 18 in the first today).
He is much the likeliest winner for me as think he is better than a handicapper now.
There is just one concern for me and that is where the pace will come from in this race. There seems to be nothing in the field that might want to lead and a slow early pace can cause problems here – getting handy early in such a situation is key.
This was evidenced in the first race today where the first 4 home were the first 4 in the race almost throughout. It’s a hard course to make up ground on in such circumstances.
I hope Luke Morris, who knows the horse so well (and am delighted to see has kept the ride after recent sale to Qatar Racing), is aware of this and gets him handy early from his outside draw

I’ll also throw in Elidor at a big price. I put him up for a race at Royal Ascot where he ran well and think he still has the ability to be better than his current mark of 99. Would also like to see him handier than he was last time at Ascot where he was set a hard task off a slow pace.
2pts ew Pallasator 4/1 (general)
0.5 pts ew Elidor 25/1 (365, Ladbrokes and Sky all offer this and pay an extra place as well!)

Good luck to all and thanks for reading the final blog of the meeting


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Posted by on August 22, 2014 in Uncategorized


York Ebor meeting – Day 3

‘Watch the skies’ is still the advice for Day 3 of York’s Ebor meeting. 5mm fell on Thursday to take the ‘firm’ out of the going and more could be coming this evening.
So tomorrow could be good to firm or it could be good to soft..and hard to take definite views with this in mind.
For longer races, it was apparent today that coming up the centre of the home straight was necessary – something that should negate the usual low draw bias.
Thursday’s first race also showed once again that the stands rail is not a place to go. Anything drawn high in the sprints would be well advised to track towards central ground.
Some quick views for tomorrow:

1.55 Chancery has dropped down to an attractive mark and has good form at the course. I am just slightly put off as he has looked like a horse in need of a break on his last two starts and so plump for Pearl Castle instead. He wouldn’t want a deluge overnight but should be effective on most going and also has that nice C&D by his name. A good 5lb claim could make a lot of difference here
1pt ew Pearl castle 11/1 (Coral)

2.30 Pass!

3.05 A very closely matched field but I’ll be having a small interest on Windfast here. Again seems effective on most ground and had looked progressive until finding 1 mile too far on his last start
0.5pts ew Windfast 14/1 (general)

3.40 Ground is key here. Sole Power needs it quick so any further rain will be to his detriment. Conversely any more rain could set this up for a Hot Streak revival (don’t come up the stands rail though please Jamie!).
Rangali’s form is also soft ground based but he hasn’t encountered quick yet to judge if it will be against him. A literal interpretation of a victory over Catcall puts him bang in this – but did Catcall run to his best last time out? Still I can understand why the 16/1 on him is disappearing tonight and there are worse outsiders than him
Early pace is likely to come from Take Cover (stall 9) and Stepper Point (2). I take the view that Stepper Point was a shade unlucky when these two met at Goodwood having been left on his own early. If there isn’t a big rainfall I make him the best outsider here and worth a little opp with Hills who pay out for 4th place

stepper point
0.5 pts ew Stepper Point 20/1 (Hills 1/5th odds 1234)

4.20 A maiden race where I have no view at all

4.55 Main bet of the day for me – we haven’t seen the best of Moohaarib yet and I think he’s just overpriced here at 13/2
1.5pts ew Moohaarib 13/2 (hills)

Thanks for reading and hope everyone has a successful day – any more updates because of going I will again post on Twitter


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Posted by on August 21, 2014 in Uncategorized


York Ebor Meeting – Day 2

Wednesday’s opening day started badly for the blog when Music Master was suddenly no longer entered for Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes – a bad scope given as the reason.
The main selection for the day, Postponed was an impressive winner of the Great Voltigeur to get some profit on the board early (despite Kingston Hill’s withdrawal giving a large Rule 4 deduction of around 40p in £ to the price suggested)
The anticipated good ground proved well wide of the mark with course records broken, and several non runners as the going turned onto the firm side
The going issue now adds another conundrum to what is an already difficult Thursday card in terms of finding value. Rain is apparently forecast tonight or tomorrow – so will they water the course or not.
It’s very hard to pick anything out for tomorrow without knowing what it is going to be like underfoot – if it does stay firm we can expect further non runners.
The last two races of the day don’t appeal much as betting races to me anyway but some quick thoughts on the preceding 4 tv races:

1.55 I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many firms offering 1/5 123 on this race before and fully expected someone to go out with ¼ 1234 (Corals and Ladbrokes only ones I can see so far – hoping for more to join them). Kool Kompany is the form choice but has to give weight all round and I would be looking to oppose him normally. Kevin Ryan has a good record in the race and Fast Act isn’t far behind in terms of form – 6 furlongs is new territory for him but the stable’s Hototo won with a previous similar record in 2012 and he would be top of the shortlist.
Marcano and New Providence appeal as potentially overpriced at double figure quotes.

2.30 Patience Alexander ran so far below form last time that I can’t factor her in and see this as a 3 way affair between the market principals. Ground is key for me and I would be against Tiggy Wiggy if it stayed very quick, but for her if it were to revert to good or softer

3.05 Tricky handicap. Bronze Angel interested me at first glance having won over C&D recently. However I am perplexed that he races off a 2lb higher mark than last time – and he is actually worse off with Fort Bastion who finished ahead of him there. The winner of that Goodwood race, Red Avenger is only 3lb higher and would appeal again if it stays quick – Fort Bastion would be top of the shortlist on slightly easier ground.

3.40 King George and Oaks heroine, Taghrooda, is way ahead of these on form and unopposable.


In what could be a tactical race I favour Volume to come out second best and ‘betting without the favourite’ could be the most interesting option here.

For now with so many uncertainties surrounding the going and not much value in terms of prices around, it’s a no betting day for me as things stand tonight.
If anything changes tomorrow I will update on Twitter (@Senor_Moodoir)

Good luck to all and thanks for reading


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Posted by on August 20, 2014 in Uncategorized


York Ebor Festival – thoughts for Day 1 and beyond

York Ebor Festival – thoughts for Day 1 and beyond

York’s Ebor Festival meeting has always been a special favourite of mine, first visited by me at the tender age of 8 in 1977 to see Relkino’s shock 33/1 victory in the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup. Of all the races there, the Ebor Handicap remains my favourite….something that started with watching Sea Pigeon’s late thrust to victory to catch Donegal Prince in 1980 under top weight. Later favorites, Quick Ransom and Further Flight did nothing to diminish the love of thie great handicap race.
I don’t get to go as regularly as I did in the 1980s and 1990s but it’s always the highlight of the Summer Flat season for me – Ascot with a Northern twist.
At time of writing ‘good’ appears the likely going with the chance of some rain later in the week.
Tuesday’s card has plenty of quality and thoughts below:

1.55 A very competitive sprint handicap – a bit too hard a puzzle for me to get involved.
There seems to be plenty of pace from the high stalls and See the Sun of those likely to be forward early would be a marginal pick. This trip (5 furlongs and lets not forget the 89 yards!…it could be crucial to blunt the real 5 furlong specialists) would appear to be ideal for him after showing bags of pace here twice at 6 furlongs.
I am just a little worried about the high draw on the course this year though – since Aetna won here at the May meeting from 20 I haven’t really seen anything that has prospered from running up the stands rail and do wonder if the ground has a problem there. I would not be surpised to see runners head more for the middle of the course.
Last years winner Bogart is another of interest down to a career low mark of 94. He also won at this meeting as a 2yo and this does appear to be a track that suits him well. He did capitulate a little too early for me at his last course visit here though (behind Goldream, See the Sun and others) to go wading in on him

No Bet

2.30 Acomb Stakes

A 2yo race that can provide future stars – few will forget Gorytus’s scintillating debut in 1982 before unfortunate circumstances ruined his later career.
I don’t quite see what Basateen and Jamaica have done to warrant odds of around 2/1 and 5/2 respectively. They may be promising types but haven’t beaten much yet. In contrast at around 7/1 I do think that Prince Gagarin and Growl are both equally exciting and are overpriced.
Good to see Ryan Moore keeping the partnership on Prince Gagarin (positive comments from him after his last win) and it’s so rare to see a Meehan 2yo win well on its debut that Growl has to be of interest – they almost always improve enormously on their next start.
If it wasn’t for a relatively poor winning time in his maiden at Ascot (traditionally a good race – 3rd and 4th have both come out since and ran well), I would be favouring Growl even more here

1pt each to win Growl and Prince Gagarin – 7/1 available on both as I write

3.05 Great Voltigeur Stakes
Traditionally seen as trial for the St. Leger it’s the one horse who doesn’t have a Doncaster entry that interests me.
Postponed has long been on the radar of this blog and his last win confirmed the impression that he is an improving type and will relish the extra furlong he gets here. He won decisively at Hamilton (Double Bluff 2nd has boosted form since) despite looking a little unhappy on the downhill run early in the home straight. Previously he might well have finished 2nd at Ascot with a clearer run. Just behind there was Cloudscape who gives close form ties with another rival here in Snow Sky. I feel that Postponed has improved since then though (most Dubawis do with age) and can have the edge on that rival here.
There is an obvious fav to beat in Kingston Hill, the 2nd in the Epsom Derby. I’m not totally sold that this is his trip despite that and the Derby form hasn’t been boosted too highly yet outside of the winner. There is a tenuous form line with Somewhat in the Eclipse that doesn’t put him far ahead of some of these also

Postponed hamilton
1.5pts ew Postponed (take 13/2 or better if you can – but 6/1 still acceptable)

3.40 Juddmonte International
The centrepiece of the day seeing Derby winner Australia take on his elders.
It’s a race just to watch for me. While Australia obviously has plenty of class, his odds on price is poor when we consider that the Derby 2nd and 3rd have both finished well behind Mukhadram since the race. Indeed, apart from Kingman and Taghrooda, it’s a struggle to find many 3yos this year who have yet to compare well against their elders.
Mukhadram in turn was just behind the other main protagonist, Telescope, at Ascot last time.
From an odds basis it should therefore be much closer here.
I do still see Australia as the likeliest winner but he would need to be odds against for me to take a second look. Mukhadram just gets the nod over Telescope for me over this shorter trip than Ascot for second spot.

It will be interesting to see how Australia’s ‘pacemaker’, Kingfisher is deployed here. Setting a strong gallop from the off may well suit the opposition a bit too much – it is Australia who has the form over a shorter 1 mile trip after all.

420 & 455 No prices available on the back two races as yet. The latter looks too hard anyway. In the 420, Spacious Sky sticks out like a sore thumb with his trainer/jockey combo but I will be watching for any double figure prices on Big Thunder (ignore his last run with a jockey who had no idea what riding over 2 miles was about at all)

Looking further ahead this week
I have followed both Hot Streak and Music Master avidly this season . The former was disappointing for me at Royal Ascot – maybe it was the ground but he let Stepper Point go past him again close home after taking over the lead from him.
This is a step down in trip for Music Master, but I think it’s a risk worth taking as he looks like he barely gets 6 furlongs at top level sometimes. Indeed, at Windsor, earlier in the season, he looked like a 5 furlong horse when being given his head early on.

music master
He is such a strong travelling type that I feel this will suit had his trainer does know a thing or two about sprinters
I would back him now as I do think he is very likely to get the nod in Mr Segal’s Pricewise column on Thursday night – which should send his price downward
He likes Henry Candy sprinters and tipped the same horse at Royal Ascot.
Candy is also in very good form at present.
Tom likes to pick horses that in his words ‘are doing something different’ – stepping down to 5 furlongs here fits that bill
Rain is also forecast on Thursday which could count against current fast ground loving favourite Sole Power

1pt ew Music Master 12/1 where still available

I’ve only really ever looked for one thing when it comes to this race – a horse that has the pace to win over a mile and a half and the stamina to win over 2.
Pallasator fits the bill perfectly.

I nominated him at 8/1 on Twitter straight after his last win and now he’s tumbled down to around 3/1 (Purple Moon and Sir Montagu the only two similarly short priced favs I can think of but both obliged). That’s plenty short enough for any horse in the Ebor but for me there was a lot against him in that last race; trip, pace and going and he still triumphed – and the form has been boosted since.
He is monster of a horse and will dwarf many of his rivals – its entirely likely given this that he is still reaching his peak at 5 years old and is now a good bit better than a handicapper
Several rivals quoted currently may not yet get into the race (Havana Cooler probably biggest threat right now needs 5 to drop out) so will look at this race again later in week if any value can be found elsewhere.

I will update the blog each evening this week but time constraints after today may mean truncated posts at times. Comments and thoughts are always welcome

Good luck to you all over the Ebor meeting

Thanks for reading


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Posted by on August 19, 2014 in Uncategorized

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