Monthly Archives: August 2014

The final day of the Ebor meeting approaches with the highlight at 3.50
If forecasts are correct we should have had the most of the rain by now so going should be good, if not slightly on the fast side of good
Three races are of interest to me:

2.40 Some promising types who may still have something in hand of the handicapper here. ..and there is also Uradel, sent over by Willie Mullins with only low grade French form who could be literally anything (the market should tell us more tomorrow)
Connecticut, Battersea and Penhill head the list of types who could be ahead of their ratings . If the first named wins he may even be mooted as a St Leger possible. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these triumph, it is Penhill who gets the nod from a price perspective.
His trainer is less well known but most capable and I think that’s the only reason he is nearly double the price of the other two at 12/1
0.75 pts ew Penhill 12/1 (general)

3.15 There’s no standout star in this year’s Gimcrack for me. Baitha Alga won well at Royal Ascot but nothing has come out since to advertise the form, while Beacon may have been unlucky at Goodwood but the opposition was not that great.
Jungle Cat holds arguably the best 6 furlong form for me and shouldn’t be dismissed but I like the chances of two Northern runners here who are totally unexposed.
Bryan Smart has trained some good youngsters in the past and I doubt he would run his unbeaten Fendale here unless he thought he was up to the task. This is a league higher than he has competed in , but his victim last time, Teruntum Star, also runs here. This suggests that it was a fair race they competed in last time
Glenalmond is the other. A full brother to Group 1 winning Wootton Bassett, he was far from the finished article on his debut. Karl Burke was narrowly touched off in the Acomb Stakes earlier in the week with another of his juveniles – and he has a useful string this year. I find it fascinating here that connections have passed up a chance of running this horse of a very generous looking mark of 75 to go straight for this higher grade
1pt win Fendale 10/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5 pts win Glenalmond 208/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills, Boyles)

3.50 My favourite flat race of the year – the Ebor H’cap -and as mentioned earlier in the week, Pallasator ticks all of the boxes for me. I’m not concerned about his high draw while they favour the middle of the home straight (Salutation narrow loser from stall 18 in the first today).
He is much the likeliest winner for me as think he is better than a handicapper now.
There is just one concern for me and that is where the pace will come from in this race. There seems to be nothing in the field that might want to lead and a slow early pace can cause problems here – getting handy early in such a situation is key.
This was evidenced in the first race today where the first 4 home were the first 4 in the race almost throughout. It’s a hard course to make up ground on in such circumstances.
I hope Luke Morris, who knows the horse so well (and am delighted to see has kept the ride after recent sale to Qatar Racing), is aware of this and gets him handy early from his outside draw

I’ll also throw in Elidor at a big price. I put him up for a race at Royal Ascot where he ran well and think he still has the ability to be better than his current mark of 99. Would also like to see him handier than he was last time at Ascot where he was set a hard task off a slow pace.
2pts ew Pallasator 4/1 (general)
0.5 pts ew Elidor 25/1 (365, Ladbrokes and Sky all offer this and pay an extra place as well!)

Good luck to all and thanks for reading the final blog of the meeting

Paul

‘Watch the skies’ is still the advice for Day 3 of York’s Ebor meeting. 5mm fell on Thursday to take the ‘firm’ out of the going and more could be coming this evening.
So tomorrow could be good to firm or it could be good to soft..and hard to take definite views with this in mind.
For longer races, it was apparent today that coming up the centre of the home straight was necessary – something that should negate the usual low draw bias.
Thursday’s first race also showed once again that the stands rail is not a place to go. Anything drawn high in the sprints would be well advised to track towards central ground.
Some quick views for tomorrow:

1.55 Chancery has dropped down to an attractive mark and has good form at the course. I am just slightly put off as he has looked like a horse in need of a break on his last two starts and so plump for Pearl Castle instead. He wouldn’t want a deluge overnight but should be effective on most going and also has that nice C&D by his name. A good 5lb claim could make a lot of difference here
1pt ew Pearl castle 11/1 (Coral)

2.30 Pass!

3.05 A very closely matched field but I’ll be having a small interest on Windfast here. Again seems effective on most ground and had looked progressive until finding 1 mile too far on his last start
0.5pts ew Windfast 14/1 (general)

3.40 Ground is key here. Sole Power needs it quick so any further rain will be to his detriment. Conversely any more rain could set this up for a Hot Streak revival (don’t come up the stands rail though please Jamie!).
Rangali’s form is also soft ground based but he hasn’t encountered quick yet to judge if it will be against him. A literal interpretation of a victory over Catcall puts him bang in this – but did Catcall run to his best last time out? Still I can understand why the 16/1 on him is disappearing tonight and there are worse outsiders than him
Early pace is likely to come from Take Cover (stall 9) and Stepper Point (2). I take the view that Stepper Point was a shade unlucky when these two met at Goodwood having been left on his own early. If there isn’t a big rainfall I make him the best outsider here and worth a little opp with Hills who pay out for 4th place

0.5 pts ew Stepper Point 20/1 (Hills 1/5th odds 1234)

4.20 A maiden race where I have no view at all

4.55 Main bet of the day for me – we haven’t seen the best of Moohaarib yet and I think he’s just overpriced here at 13/2
1.5pts ew Moohaarib 13/2 (hills)

Thanks for reading and hope everyone has a successful day – any more updates because of going I will again post on Twitter

Paul

Wednesday’s opening day started badly for the blog when Music Master was suddenly no longer entered for Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes – a bad scope given as the reason.
The main selection for the day, Postponed was an impressive winner of the Great Voltigeur to get some profit on the board early (despite Kingston Hill’s withdrawal giving a large Rule 4 deduction of around 40p in £ to the price suggested)
The anticipated good ground proved well wide of the mark with course records broken, and several non runners as the going turned onto the firm side
The going issue now adds another conundrum to what is an already difficult Thursday card in terms of finding value. Rain is apparently forecast tonight or tomorrow – so will they water the course or not.
It’s very hard to pick anything out for tomorrow without knowing what it is going to be like underfoot – if it does stay firm we can expect further non runners.
The last two races of the day don’t appeal much as betting races to me anyway but some quick thoughts on the preceding 4 tv races:

1.55 I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many firms offering 1/5 123 on this race before and fully expected someone to go out with ¼ 1234 (Corals and Ladbrokes only ones I can see so far – hoping for more to join them). Kool Kompany is the form choice but has to give weight all round and I would be looking to oppose him normally. Kevin Ryan has a good record in the race and Fast Act isn’t far behind in terms of form – 6 furlongs is new territory for him but the stable’s Hototo won with a previous similar record in 2012 and he would be top of the shortlist.
Marcano and New Providence appeal as potentially overpriced at double figure quotes.

2.30 Patience Alexander ran so far below form last time that I can’t factor her in and see this as a 3 way affair between the market principals. Ground is key for me and I would be against Tiggy Wiggy if it stayed very quick, but for her if it were to revert to good or softer

3.05 Tricky handicap. Bronze Angel interested me at first glance having won over C&D recently. However I am perplexed that he races off a 2lb higher mark than last time – and he is actually worse off with Fort Bastion who finished ahead of him there. The winner of that Goodwood race, Red Avenger is only 3lb higher and would appeal again if it stays quick – Fort Bastion would be top of the shortlist on slightly easier ground.

3.40 King George and Oaks heroine, Taghrooda, is way ahead of these on form and unopposable.

In what could be a tactical race I favour Volume to come out second best and ‘betting without the favourite’ could be the most interesting option here.

For now with so many uncertainties surrounding the going and not much value in terms of prices around, it’s a no betting day for me as things stand tonight.
If anything changes tomorrow I will update on Twitter (@Senor_Moodoir)

Good luck to all and thanks for reading

Paul