A quick resume of yesterday’s big race and how the blog selections have performed
A re-run of Many Clouds magnificent win can be seen below
It wasn’t the result we wanted from the point of the blog but nothing should be detracted from a superb performance by the winner. He was a young horse in Grand National terms and coming back after an attritional race in the Gold Cup which would have finished off many for the season. Moreover he carried the kind of weight to victory that hasn’t been seen since the days of Red Rum in 1974. All of these were big negatives from a stats view going into the race and so he was never going to be at the forefront of my selections
All in all he must now be considered as one of the very best winners of the race in the modern era considering what he had going against him.
My main tip Rocky Creek looked beaten soon after they started the second circuit and I don’t think was jumping as well as he did last year. It was too far out to give lack of stamina as a reason and unless something comes to light to explain it, must be considered a very disappointing run.
Monbeg Dude was given a terrific ride by Liam Treadwell to secure some place returns for Ante Post followers. For a time at the final fence I thought he might catch them up front as he came with a strong run from the back of the field. The effort was just too much but he ran a great third and might have been a bit closer still but for being hampered by the fall of French outsider River Choice at Bechers first time round.
The Game Changer did give some place returns in a later race after looking the likely winner two fences out.
Aintree was a little disappointing overall slightly mirroring last years results where Cheltenham was also the better meeting for profit.
It’s always a bit of a watershed time for me now with jump racing – the Scottish National next Saturday holds some interest but generally my betting interests will die down with jump racing until November now and Flat Racing will gradually take over
Results from last week:
Thursday 9pts staked , 3.62 pts returned
Friday 10pts staked , 13.05 pts returned
Saturday 16 pts staked 4 pts returned
Previous Grand National Ante Post Bets returned 9.25 pts
So from an initial bank of 50 pts at the start of this year we now have a balance of 65.98 pts (slightly below the balance after Cheltenham but still just under 32% ahead on the year)
It’s an interesting week next week with the first big Classics trials starting on the Flat and the Scottish National on Saturday so the blog may be in action again in the next 7 days
The final day of the Aintree meeting and the showpiece event the Grand National is due to start at 4.15pm
There were no withdrawals prior to Friday’s deadline which meant that all reserves miss the race. Subsequent to this Carlito Brigante was taken out after being found lame so 39 runners are now due to start the big race
I listed each horse with remarks about their chances and with a scoring system earlier in the week on this posting https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2015/04/06/2015-crabbies-grand-national/
A list of bookmakers odds for the big race can be found here:http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-04-11-aintree/16:15/winner
Some initial things to note from this odds list.
This is the biggest horse racing shop window of the year for bookmakers when they look to bring in new accounts.
Many will offer enhanced odds and place terms which may well be unprofitable to them. For anyone who doesn’t yet hold an account there will be further carrots dangled with higher odds again on fancied horses (though to limited stakes) and the offer of free bets in the future.
For any newbies out there who aren’t sure of how to take advantage of such offers please feel free to leave a comment or contact me on Twitter (@Senor_Moodoir) and I will endeavour to help if I can
Also if betting online get bets on early. There is unprecedented traffic on betting company sites on this day and some may struggle to handle it! Some have been known to crash as they cannot handle it in the past
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And so onto the race:
Lets hope it’s a cleaner race than Friday’s Topham – run over the same course but a shorter trip – where two thirds of the field failed to complete. The fences may be easier nowadays but that may just increase the speed they jump. Loose horses were causing plenty of problems in Friday’s race The big talking point will undoubtedly be the final appearance of champion jockey AP McCoy which is the reason why his mount Shutthefrontdoor is favourite. Undoubtedly, this one is a much shorter price than he should be as a result but its market forces that have driven his price so low. Bookmakers predict he will be one of the shortest priced favourites ever with all of the support they expect but I’m not so sure he will get as short as is predicted. He’s currently hanging around 7/1 though his real odds should maybe be double that. While he fits the bill on stamina he fails on so many other stats – and firms will be aware of this. If you fancy him I would advise to wait until the shop windows open tomorrow morning and firms may well be competing to be the ones offering the top price on him. I’ll be surprised if you can’t get a bit more than 7/1. Once on course bookmakers become involved in the hour before the race that price may contract though I think there is another in the race who may well be backed also – and possibly even vying for favouritism. I can’t recommend backing him myself and on my other post I formulated a shortlist where I think the possible winner will come from. GODSMEJUDGE, AL CO,MONBEG DUDE, ACROSS THE BAY , ROYALE KNIGHT, PINEAU DE RE, BALTHAZAR KING, SOLL, ROCKY CREEK The first 7 of these all fit the trends of previous winners best in the race and have the form in the book which gives them a serious chance. The last two have a slight failing on the stamina front but I believe have the potential to erase that negative they have. I have already advised bets on Godsmejudge and Monbeg Dude earlier in the year in January and February. Godsmejudge would still have been my top selection but for a real dismal run over hurdles three weeks ago. He is a shorter price than I advised now – and I wont be backing him anymore now that I’m already on. Monbeg Dude was disappointing in his trainers mind last time out where the fitting of a tongue tie was blamed. I’m a bit disappointed that he doesn’t have a jockey who knows him well on board as he needs to be given a patient ride and held up until late. Nevertheless last years 7th (didn’t quite stay after running a bit too freely) is still overpriced in my eyes at 40/1 – especially when 6 places are available. If you haven’t backed already I still rate him as a value outsider to keep with. Al Co has come if for some support in the last week to around 25/1. He’s one for a saver as he probably is the best stats fit of all. It’s just a bit offputting that he seems to be ridden as if he doesn’t want to many horses round him – a negative if that is applied on this track. Last years winner and second Pineau De Re and Balthazar King still have place chances. Pineau De Re is now 12 and that may just count against him along with his rise in the weights. Balthazar King also has a slightly higher mark and I think has got a little too short at around 10/1. I can see him running well but again finding one too good. Royale Knight is improving but needs to be off a much higher mark than he has won off before. It’s the huge jump in class for me that just keeps him off my list to bet. I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from Soll at around 20/1. He does have some stamina to prove but his new trainer David Pipe seems to have revitalized him and a different training regime could see him a stronger stayer. The two bets for the day I will suggest at currently available odds come last. Across the Bay represent the McCain stable who have such a good heritage in this race stemming from the mighty Red Rum. He was very unlucky to be taken out of the race with a circuit to go last year but has proved he likes the course. I hope he can be ridden with a bit more restraint to get home this year but at 50/1 and with 6 places available he is worth an interest. The main bet is Rocky Creek however. He was 5th last year and jumped around the course with aplomb only to fade late home. I think he can improve on that and am relying on his trainer’s great record at bringing improvement to horses by means of a breathing operation. He looked a stronger finisher last time at Kempton after coming back from his treatment. While I don’t see a jumping problem some luck is always need at this course. You can be the best jumper in the world but if you run into one in front of you that isn’t so good at the obstacles it can be all over.
He should be the favourite in the race for me and I see him too big with 10/1 offered . Paul Nicholls has become known as ‘Mr Saturday’ this season with such a fine record in landing the big weekend pot. This would be the ultimate weekend result for him and I can see people latching onto this. I don’t expect his SP to be as high as 10/1 and could conceivably see him challenging Shutthefrontdoor as favourite Recommendations 3pts ew Rocky Creek 10/1 (Betfred/Tote who pay ¼ 12345) or take BetVictor’s 9/1 where they offer 1st 6 1pt ew Across The Bay 50/1 50/1 (BetVictor ¼ odds 123456)
(already advised earlier this year
1.5 pts ew Godsmejudge 28/1 + 1pt ew 25/1
1pt ew Monbeg Dude 33/1)
As for the remaining races on the card there aren’t too many bets that take my fancy for now but here are some thoughts with selections recommended in the last two races:
2.15 Parlour Games and Nichols Canyon are the pricipals and had only a lenght between them at Cheltenham. There shouldn’t be much between them again but both would prefer softer ground and the form hasn’t really been advertised by those behind since. As Der Mee’s form is also on softer ground and while Three Musketeers looks promising he’ll need further improvement here. Days Of Heaven missed Cheltenham and is the one that most takes the eye as he looks to be firmly on an upward curve. The problem is that this distance is new territory for him and that prevents me backing him
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2.05 Gods Own has all the best form here and gets his desired ground. There is a reservation about his form on left handed tracks which he put to bed to some degree with his second in the Arkle last time. More critical for betting on this race is that there is no obvious front runner (Solar Impulse maybe) and this could be a tactical affair. Court Minstrel is the one I have my eye on most as track and ground should definitely suit – but I wouldnt want to see Paul Moloney overdoing the waiting tactics if the pace isn’t quick-
2.50Hard to tell if his serious blunder deprived Zarkandar of victory in the World Hurdle or not. He was certainly going well at the time but ultimately Cole Harden won going away. The latter gets his ground again and should have no competition for the lead up front. Much will depend on who has recovered from that race best. Last year’s winner Whisper should also get closer now he’s had a run under his belt. If there is a shock then Henryville ran a huge race under top weight in the Pertemps final at Cheltenham. That entitles him to mix it with these and he’s the most appealing of the outsiders-3.25 Buywise throws many races away with bad jumping and you have to take that on board if backing at a short price. Vino Griego is a quirky character who hasnt shown much form in his last three races – but now he’s back on good ground. Last year he had similar conditions in this race when touched off by the reopposing Duke of Lucca but is now 10lbs better off. I’d be chancing he is on a going today at around 8/1 but he certainly isn’t the type of horse to risk the life savings on!
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5.10 One For The Guvnor could be well in on his handicap debut but has been priced accordingly at an early 5/1. I slightlyprefer two Irish raiders at bigger odds. The Game Changer was well fancied in the County Hurdle at Cheltenham but the rain on the day probably scuppered his chances. He has his ground now and an excellent pilot aboard in young Luke Dempsey. At still bigger odds, Little KingRobin, is also back on a surface that suits. She is a trail blazing front runner – a style that is suited by this course – and she has a touch of class. She’s top weight on the back of that but I find her odds to big for this
1pt ew The Game Changer @12/1 (365, Ladbrokes, Skybet, Corals)
0.5pts ew Little King Robin @25/1 (generally available)
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5.40Hard to read the form in this Mares Bumper. The Irish challenge looks predictably strong with Whistle Dixie and Babylone des Mottes at the head of the early markets. Sunshine Corner has to be on the shortlist but connections intimated that she may not want the ground this quick after her debut victory. Chocca Wocca is the first foal of the very classy mare Chomba Womba and I’ll be watching her with interest. I’m a sucker for anything the Crawford family send over to this meeting in Bumpers and they won this with Legacy Gold two years ago. They have Verona Opera here at a big price and you can be sure she’ll be trained for this – the connections main aim will be to sell her on the back of it. Her debut run doesnt look good enough but I think she improved plenty next time up when winning easily. Sh’e worth a punt at big odds because of her connections record in bumpers alone
0.5pts ew Verona Opera 40/1 (365 – who offer 1/4 odds 123)
(apologies to those who read this before this morning where I accidentaly called her Verona Gold – thinking of Legacy Gold again!)
*SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE*
A small amount of ovcernight rain at the track but nothing that should prevent if being decent racing ground once drying winds take some effect later.
I was looking forward to seeing some value in speical bets markets this morning on the big race but compared to last year the selection is quite poor. There are a lot of meaning less oness out there (star sign of winner, first letter of winner) and it’s very disappointing to see that ‘Top 10 finish’ which was widely available in last few years has been missed out by all so far. Sadly that’s probably a result of too much automation in compiling these days and the program that being built in.
Match Bets are the others that interest me but again there’s a pretty poor selection with many firms.
The standout for me is with BetVictor who offer
5/6 Oscar Time v 5/6 Court By Surprise
I strongly favour the former here. He may be a veteran but he has loads of good course form and in Sam Waley Cohen has the pilot with the best record over these fences on his back. Court By Surprise is a decent horse but has had a long lay off and no experience over these fences at all
http://www.betvictor.com remain the only major firm offering 6 places for each way punters and that should be the first place to look – if the win odds are available better elsewhere with firms offering 1st 5 then they should be considered intead. There remain a few firms (Betfred, Tote, Hills) only paying 4 places and that really is the last resort for each way betting now. Do try and get bets on as early as possible and take the price – when the shows come in from on course bookmakers later they will supercede these and in majority of cases they might well be less. Most firms do offer ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ so if you do take a price now you will get the final SP price if it happens to be bigger anyway
There is one other bet I have to recommend now from an earlier race
2.50 Aintree
4pts Cole Harden @15/8 (without Zarkandar)
I wasn’t confident enough to pick Cole Harden in the race itself as I thought it would be close between him and Zarkandar. In this special market ofered by a few firms I no longer have to worry what Zarkandar does – he can win and Cole Harden finish 2nd and we stil collect.
I do think his Cheltenham win has been slightly undervalued and no reason he can’t control the race again from the front on a course that should suit him even better. Bet 365 have the same market with him at 5/4 and that’s much more like what price I think he should be – the tip is given in the belief that 15/8 is simply much too big
With regard to previous selections the money has come significantly for 5.10 selection The Game Changer and last night’s 12/1 no longer available. 8/1 is now best.
Pricewise also put up my main Grand National pick Rocky Creek last night. 10/1 has now all gone. 9/1 is still available but I think that wil shorten further through the day
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Thanks for reading
Comments on the blog are always most welcome
Paul
Total recommended stakes for day of race bets today = 16pts
With the 5 day declarations now in for Saturday’s big race it’s time for a rundown of the likely runners.
* THURSDAY LUNCHTIME UPDATE*
48hour declarations are now in and no horses have come out of the race – This means the first 40 listed are all declared to run.
As alluded to in some of my previous posts there are certain stats that can highlight those with a better chance of prevailing. To try and pinpoint these further I’m going to give a scoring system to each runner based on each of these.
Latest odds for the big race from all of the major bookmakers can be found here:http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner Weight. ( W )
11 stone or less a big positive = 3pts
11st 1lb to 11st 6lb – less of chance but still not insurmountable (particularly on decent ground) = 2pts
Over 11st 6lbs = 0 pts Stamina (S)
It may seem obvious but there was a train of thought once that 2.5 mile horses were ideal for this (largely stemming from Fred Rimell/Gay Trip victory). There is nothing to back this up nowadays.
A winner over more than 3 miles is necessary so we give 1pt for that
Not having won over at least 3 miles in hurdles or chases is such a big negative to me that it carries MINUS 1pt
Proven stamina in a competitive National like Handicap (3ml 4fur or more) =3pts
*Please note I do not consider Cheltenham’s NH Chase in that last criteria. It is over 4 miles but is for amateur riders and usually slowly run so can give a misleading stamina impression. Age (and Chasing experience) (A)
9,10 or 11 is the desired age bracket to have here and gets 2pts.
Since the turn of century (and not counting Red Marauder’s heavy ground freak race) that covers all but one winner (Bindaree 8yo in 2002), and all but 5 winners since 1980.
Those 8yos that have prevailed did have chasing experience on their side so get 1 pt if they have had at least 10 runs over the big fences
Streetwise 12yos can also triumph occasionally but would need a previous run over the National fences to get 1pt
A 7yo hasn’t won since 1940 so that has to be a big negative and gets MINUS 1pt. There have been 29 to try in this millennium and the best was Big Fella Thanks with 6th place in 2009.
13 and 14yos don’t often run and their price would reflect that they are past their prime. No points for them but don’t be surprised with a top 10 finish as National veterans Swing Bill and Hello Bud have done in the last 3 years Runs This Season (R)
When you realise that none of the last 24 winners came into the race without having at least 3 runs it has to be important and so is given 2pts. A run since Christmas is also important so we’ll take off a point for any that haven’t
These I think are the key statistics for which to base a scoring system and I will apply to each horse below. A total score of 10 pts is possible for the ‘ideal stats fit’
Below are the 5 day entries and there is a final 48 hour declaration stage to come on Thursday where a few more horses may drop out. (I will amend the list if necessary then)
Horse are listed in racecard order with the highest weighted first.
LORD WINDERMERE 9yo 11st 10lbs Trainer: Jim Culloty ; Jockey : Robbie McNamara Score= 5 (W 0, S 1, A 2, R 2) Top weight on basis of last year’s Gold Cup win. Even allowing for the softer ground this year he ran a lifeless race before eventually pulling up. Hardly an ideal prep and although ground should suit now the statistics are all against him now
MANY CLOUDS 8yo 11st 9lbs Oliver Sherwood; Leighton Aspell Score =4 (0,1,1,2) This season’s Hennessy winner was more competitive in the Gold Cup biut like so many others was taken out of his comfort zone by Coneygree’s relentless galloping. That was such a test that I would suspect it will have finished many runners off for the season. Reading between the lines I think he’s only here because the owner likes to have a runner and doesn’t have anything else this year. I’ll be very surprised if this one can be competitive and hope he’s not given too hard a time as he remains a good prospect for next season
UNIONISTE 7yo 11st 6lbs Paul Nicholls ; Noel Fehily Score =4 (2,1,-1,2) As a 7yo he has it all against him and good early season form really did nothing to help his handicap mark which is now 6lb higher than when finishing a remote 6th in the Hennessy. Preparations have to be much more low key for this race to avoid inflated marks like this so he’s not for me this year.
ROCKY CREEK 9yo 11st 3lb Paul Nicholls ; Sam Twiston Davies Score= 6 (2,0,2,2) Falls behind on the stamina stat with my scoring but could arguably be higher. Looked a real stayer as a novice hurdler but in his chasing season he looked a bit of a weak finisher (most notably in this race when 5th). If he hadn’t folded up so badly in the straight he could easily have been given an extra 3 pts added and there must be plenty of hope on his latest win at Kempton that the weakness could have gone. That’s down to a breathing op and it’s worked really well with other Nicholls horses this season – notably 2 mile champion Dodging Bullets (another weak finisher who is now totally transformed). Rocky Creek comes into this race on a mark of 154 but since that was given to him he’s now rated 163 after his Kempton win. So he’s one of a small handful who comes into the race ‘well in’.
In last years race he was the ‘wrong age’ at 8 and was the only horse to carry more than 11 stone and be in the first 10. It’s a performance that can be built on this year when more is in his favour He should be favourite for me and despite not quite covering all the stats he should be very competitive in this race
FIRST LIEUTENANT 10yo 11st 3lbs Mouse Morris ; Nina Carberry Score = 7 (2,1,2,2) I’ve long had a fondness for this one and he was my Gold Cup pick last year until being pulled out on the day of the race. A much better Spring horse and should get the decent ground he needs. Nina Carberry should have a great spin round as he’s a fine jumper normally but I’ve never seen him as a thorough stayer and 3ml 2fur is about his limit. Doesn’t quite seem the same force he was this season so far also. I’d be much happier to see him running in the shorter Topham Trophy on Friday around this course.
BALTHAZAR KING 11yo 11st 2lbs Philip Hobbs ; Richard Johnson Score =9 (2,3,2,2) Hard to beat on Cheltenham’s cross country course, he ran too freely up front when not getting home in this race 2 years ago. Ridden with a bit more restraint he finished a good second last year and warrants his place close to the head of the market on that. Hasn’t run since November but usually performs well fresh so that shouldn’t be too much of a negative. A 3lb higher mark than last year won’t help things though but he remains a contender for a placing
The favourite – but let’s face it he only is so because it’s the jockeys final ride in the race. A win in the Irish National and has proven stamina from that. Here endeth the positives though and he really should be at least double his current odds of around 7/1. He’s too young, doesn’t have enough chasing experience and an interrupted preparation this year all weigh his score down.Public support could see him shorten up further still come the day but favourites haven’t got the record you might expect with only 6 winning since 1970.
PINEAU DE RE 12yo 11st Dr Richard Newland; Daryl Jacob Score=9 (3,3,1,2) Last year’s impressive winner has now gone over the ideal age threshold and is on an 8lb higher mark. His preparation coming in hasn’t given the impression that he’s quite as good but his trainer is never one to underestimate. Faces an uphill task nonetheless to repeat the same performance
Here he is in his finest hour last year to get the juices flowing!
BALLYCASEY 8yo 10st 13lbs Willie Mullins;Ruby Walsh Score=4 (3,-1,0,2) Apart from the fact he may be Ruby Walsh’s mount I can’t think of a less appealing contender for such a race. Doesn’t appear to get home over 3 miles and has been tried at shorter trips this season. What is he doing running here?
SPRING HEELED 8yo 10st 12lbs Jim Culloty; Nick Schofield Score =5 (3,1,1,0) Touted by many as an Ante Post pick earlier this year he comes into the category of ‘doubtful stayer’ to me. I put him up as a bet at last year’s Cheltenham Festival when he obliged at a big price. That was mainly because he looked like a non stayer to me earlier in the season over 3ml 4fur and I thought the shorter trip was made for him. Whilst that thought remains in my mind I have to pass him over for this race.
REBEL REBELLION 10yo 10st 12lbs Paul Nicholls; Ryan Mahon Score= 6 (3,-1,2,2) In great form this season and hhas winning form on this course – but everything is at much shorter trips and stamina is a massive concern. His upturn in form this season also seems linked to the partnership formed with young claimer Jack Sherwood. He isn’t experienced enough to ride him here so that’s also a negative for his chances. Another who should be in the Topham on Friday instead
DOLATULO 8yo 10st 11lbs Warren Greatrex; Dougie Costello Score=7 (3,-1,2,2) On a 9lb higher mark than he has ever won off before and stamina for this trip is a big question mark. The handicapper has ruined what chance he did one have for me – and it wasn’t that high anyway
MON PARRAIN 9yo 10st 11lbs Paul Nicholls; Sean Bowen Score=8 (3,1,2,2) Looked an Aintree star of the future when jumping around this course for fun before eventually finishing 2nd in the 2011 Topham. He’s been a bit of a disappointment since and didn’t show too much on this course before Christmas. A win at Cheltenham since when 25/1 showed he still retains some ability but the handicapper has raised him back to a mark of 148 (highest winning mark 142) on the back of it. CARLITO BRIGANTE 9yo 10st 10lbs NON RUNNER Karen McLintock; Brian Harding Score=8 (3,1,2,2) A once highly useful hurdler for Gordon Elliott, he’s hit some revival in form with a new trainer this season. While he should get the decent ground he needs he’s back to a very high mark of 147 and was comfortably beaten of that last time out.
NIGHT IN MILAN 9yo 10st 9lbs Keith Reveley; James Reveley Score 8 (3,1,2,2) A bold jumping front runner who could be suited by the challenges of this course. His last win however was of a mark of 136 and he has 146 here. His only two efforts off such a rating have seen him beaten (though not totally disgraced). Some stamina to prove at this grade, particularly given his running style
RUBI LIGHT 10yo 10st 9lbs Robert Alan Hennessy; Andrew Lynch Score=6 (3,-1,2,2) Irish raider who was once competing at the highest class at around 2.5 miles. Isn’t quite the force he was but there is absolutely no reason to assume he has suddenly found new stamina reserves. He doesn’t really stay 3 miles and so has very little chance here for me
THE DRUIDS NEPHEW 8yo 10st 9lbs Neil Mulholland; Aidan Coleman Score= 7 (3,1,1,2) Another who comes here ‘well in’ – 10 lbs in his case after a runaway win at the Cheltenham Festival. His rider there, Barry Geraghty is now injured and Aidan Coleman should be a more than capable substitute. Stamina is a bit of an enigma as he seemed to get 3.5 miles ok at Cheltenham earlier this season but then capitulated quite quickly in the Hennessy over 3ml 2fur. There are also a few doubts about his low jumping style for these fences but my principal concern would be that he was trained to win at Cheltenham and the National is a bit of an afterthought.
CAUSE OF CAUSES 7yo 10st 9lbs Gordon Elliott; Paul Carberry Score= 5 (3,1,-1,2) As previously stated I don’t count his win over 4 miles at Cheltenham as sufficient proof he has the stamina for this race. It was slowly run and the final sprint would have suited a horse who really a 2 miler over hurdles. Expect to see him racing at the back of the field on the first circuit but as he’s only 7 I have to pass him by
– GODSMEJUDGE 9yo 10st 8lbs Alan King; Wayne Hutchinson Score=10 (3,3,2,2) My early ante post pick and comes out perfectly on a stats front. His preparation was all looking good until a fairly horrendous last run over hurdles at Bangor.
Alan King issued an upbeat statement afterwards saying the horse was fine and simply didn’t like going hurdling. It’s not ideal though to see a run like this only 3 weeks before the big one and I’m more hopeful than confident on his chances now
AL CO 10yo 10st 8lbs Peter Bowen; Denis O’Regan Score 10 (3,3,2,2) Another who comes out perfectly on the stats, last season’s Scottish National hero ran really well in the same race that Godsmejudge was so disappointing in at Bangor. Regular rider Jamie Moore is injured so we wait to see who replaces him. Didn’t impress over these fences before Christmas but I doubt he was expected to do much in that race and it has managed to get his mark down a couple of pounds. Trainer Peter Bowen knows how to get one ready for these fences – Mc Kelvey was a good 2nd in the race and Always Waining and Dunnbrody Millar excelled for him in the Topham in recent years.
The one real concern comes with the trainers quote after his Ayr success : ‘Jamie (Moore) always had him on the outside because he loves to have plenty of daylight. I thought he got to the front a bit soon, but it worked out fine‘. – Peter Bowen, trainer.
He was ridden similarly wide at Bangor and if he does need all of that space he is on the wrong course here. He will lose valuable lengths and the Canal Turn could be a disaster
MONBEG DUDE 10yo 10st 7lbs Michael Scudamore; Liam Treadwell Score 10 (3,3,2,2) My other Ante Post pick had some doubts expressed about his wellbeing at Cheltenham. Connections obviously expected a better showing there but I thought he ran ok on ground that had firmed up a bit too much for him. A perfect score on Stats with a previous win in the Welsh Grand National on his CV. Ran well here last year despite being a bit too fresh. I would have preferred Paul Carberry to be on board again so it’s disappointing to have a jockey on board who won’t know him as well (he needs to be held up and delivered with a late run). Liam Treadwell gets the call and at least he has the Grand National T shirt having won on board Mon Mome in 2009
CORRIN WOOD 8yo 10st 7lbs Donald McCain; David Casey Score=6 (3,1,0,2) Fair novice last season with some bold jumping front running displays. Was found out when upped in grade and yet to recover similar form levels since. Probably not experienced enough for this kind of test yet in his career.
THE RAINBOW HUNTER 11yo 10st 7lbs Kim Bailey; David Bass Score=5 (3,0,2,0) Two appearances in this race have seen him unseat rider on both occasions. An outsider who has had far from an ideal preparation and something to prove on stamina.
SAINT ARE 9yo 10st 6lbs Tom George; Paddy Brennan Score=8 (3,1,2,2) Never seen with a chance when running in this race as a 7yo in 2013. Previously had a good record around Aintree’s Mildmay course. Perhaps starting to rediscover his best form at 9 and with a change of trainer but he’s been raised a massive 16lbs in the ratings since finishing 3rd behind Oscar Time on this course in December. Some harsh handicapping there may have sealed his fate
ACROSS THE BAY 11yo 10st 6lbs Donald McCain; Henry Brooke Score=10 (3,3,2,2) An interesting contender who has led the field at at Water Jump for the last two seasons only to be hampered by a loose horse on both occasions. Last year was particularly costly as he went from clear leader to clear last place in just a few strides. He still did well to get to the coat tails of the principals at the Canal Turn but had used up too much petrol by then. His stamina side scores high by virtue of a 3ml 4fur win at haydock in heavy ground but he didn’t get home in the National two years ago when leading until the home turn (so it is a slightly questionable 3 pts) If he can be ridden with a bit more restraint (as when winning at Haydock) he could be an outsider who will outrun his odds. He did show he was coming back to form before being brought down at Cheltenham last time.
Trainer Donald McCain had had a poor season by his standards but there can’t be any around with a better heritage in this race
TRANQUIL SEA 13yo 10st 5lbs Warren Greatrex; Gavin Sheehan Score=3 (3,0,0,0) Once a classy performer when trained in Ireland he looks to be a downward curve now and has definite stamina limitations. Just likely to be here to give the owners a runner I suspect.
OSCAR TIME 14yo 10st 5lbs Robert Waley-Cohen; Sam Waley-Cohen Score=8 (3,3,0,2) A National veteran having been placed twice in this race and in an Irish National. Showed he wasn’t finished yet when winning the Becher Chase as a 13yo. You won’t see many 14yos running in this race (2 in last 10 years) and his age should negate his chances of winning. He does have a rider who has an excellent record in this race however and don’t rule out a top 10 finish
BOB FORD 8yo 10st 4lbs Rebecca Curtis;Paul Townend Score=9 (3,3,1,2) You won’t see a race won on much worse ground than the West Wales National at Ffos Las this season. Bob Ford won that farce of a race and so prompted the handicapper to raise him a bundle so he could get into this race. He won’t find such ground here and on all other form he is now out of his depth on this mark
SUPER DUTY 8yo 10st 4lbs Ian Williams; Will Kennedy Score=5 (3,0,2,0) Looked useful as a novice chaser when trained by Donald McCain but was then sidelined for over a year. Stamina unproven and not enough to suggest he retains the same ability since his return yet.
WYCK HILL 11yo 10st 4lbs David Bridgwater; Tom Cannon Score= 8 (3,3,2,0) Stamina is no issue here – in fact he’s likely to be just too slow on decent ground to keep up with the others! Preparation not ideal with only 2 runs and a fall in his last race. Easily discounted.
GAS LINE BOY 9yo 10st 4lb Philip Hobbs;James Best Score=10 (3,3,2,2) A maximum score here but that’s based on performances off much lower handicap marks than he has here. Owned by the Mick Fitzgerald Racing Club, both Mick and the trainer have said that he’s a horse who needs ‘everything to go his way ‘in a race. Unlikely he’ll get that here.
CHANCE DU ROY 11yo 10st 4lbs Philip Hobbs; Tom O’Brien Score=5 (3,0,2,0) Boasts a great record over these fences in 6 attempts. His performance in the 2013 Topham was lack lustre and he fell another time but the other 4 mark him as horse who thrives here
. Unfortunately it’s mostly over shorter trips and on his one attempt at this race last year he patently didn’t stay close home. He still managed 5th and could achieve a similar placing again whilst the ground isn’t too soft. An unlikely winner but one to watch out for with top 10 betting
PORTRAIT KING 10yo 10st 3lbs M Phelan; Davy Condon Score=10 (3,3,2,2) Another with a top score that may flatter him. His stamina points come from his Eider Chase win in 2012 and his form recently doesn’t match up to his 140 rating. Appears out of his depth at this level.
OWEGA STAR 8yo 10st 3lbs Peter Fahey ;Robbie Power Score=4 (3,-1,0,2) Little to recommend with this Irish challenger. Too young and not enough chasing experience plus a stamina issue make him a rank outsider.
RIVER CHOICE 12yo 10st 3lbs R Chotard;David Cottin Score=4 (3,-1,0,2) Owner Fergus Wilson has a history of sending no hopers to big races. This 12yo has all of his form in France – largely on heavy ground and over shorter trips. There’s nothing to suggest to me that he is a serious contender
COURT BY SURPRISE 10yo 10st 3lbs Emma Lavelle; Richie McLernon Score=6 (3,1,2,0) We have to assume this one has had a setback as not been seen since early November despite an obvious preference for decent ground. Had a progressive profile until then and although not proven over marathon trips there was enough to suggest they could suit
ALVARADO 10yo 10st 3lbs Fergal O’Brien; Paul Moloney Score=8 (3,3,2,0) The owners and jockey have a magnificent record of placed horses in recent years and Alvarado continued that trend with 4th last year. He was going as well as anything with 6 to jump but then seemed to get outpaced at a crucial stage before his stamina kicked in to secure a place close home. His preparation with only one run isn’t ideal this time round and getting outpaced again is a worry. I could see a similar run again this year and a placing isn’t out of the question again – but perhaps lacking the tactical speed to win the race on decent ground
SOLL 10yo 10st 2lbs David Pipe; Tom Scudamore Score=8 (3,1,2,2) Soll was my ante post pick for the race last year when trained by Jo Hughes. That was based on a promising run in this race in 2013 when I considered him too young ( a bad mistake at the Chair not helping his cause before fading close home to finish 7th). Everything went wrong with his preparation last year and he ended up running in the Topham instead over much too short a trip This season he’s been moved to David Pipe and has rediscovered his potential (the trainer attributing this to blinkers and a tongue strap being fitted). As a result of his two recent wins he’s another who comes into this race as ‘well in’ – to the tune of 7lbs. He’s likely to be the biggest horse in the field by some way but that didn’t stop another ‘giant’ Party Politics winning this race. Such big horses normally take longer to reach their peak so he could be close to that now at 10 years old.
The negative here is a stamina query, Whilst he races like a stayer he hasn’t got home in real marathon tests like the National before – but that was with a different trainer and I wouldn’t put it past team Pipe to bring on some more mettle in that department.
ELY BROWN 10yo 10st 2lbs Charlie Longsdon;Brian Hughes Score=6 (3,1,2,0) For a 10yo he has very little chasing experience and with just one run this season resulting in being pulled up, he has a poor preparation for this race. Hard to give any chance.
ROYALE KNIGHT 9yo 10st 2lbs Dr Richard Newland; Brendan Powell Score=10 (3,3,2,2) A second string to last year’s winning trainer’s bow – and another top score. Royale Knight seems all about stamina but his form is all at a much lower level than this. He’s been kept away from chases since winning easily off a mark of 124 which saw him raised a massive 15lbs to his mark here of 139. The question is whether he’s improving enough to cope with that. Good ground seems to suit
41. BAILEYS CONCERTO 9yo 10st 2lbs (first reserve) Dianne Sayer; Score=6 (3,-1,2,2) The handicapper seems to have this one’s measure now and there is a big stamina question mark.
DUKE OF LUCCA 10yo 10st 2lbs (2nd reserve) Philip Hobbs Score=8 (3,1,2,2) A winner on the Mildmay course at this meeting last year, he hasn’t shown too much sparkle so far this term. Nothing to suggest this sort of trip is what he needs.
43. Raz Da Maree ( achance on very soft ground) and 44. The Package are the last two reserves but it must be highly unlikely that enough runners will now drop out for them to get into the race
A resume of the top scorers:
10 pts
GODSMEJUDGE
AL CO
MONBEG DUDE
ACROSS THE BAY
GAS LINE BOY
PORTRAIT KING
ROYALE KNIGHT
9pts
BALTHAZAR KING
PINEAU DE RE
BOB FORD
I would tend to think that this list as above comprises the likeliest winner and we can trim this down further with the removal of three horses who I think have inflated stats and are out of their depth in this race: Gas Line Boy, Portrait King, Bob Ford
I will also include two horses whose lower scores are because of low stamina points that I believe have the potential to be improved on this year SOLL and ROCKY CREEK
This leaves a final shortlist of GODSMEJUDGE, AL CO,MONBEG DUDE, ACROSS THE BAY , ROYALE KNIGHT, PINEAU DE RE, BALTHAZAR KING, SOLL, ROCKY CREEK
I’ve already advised Godsmejudge and Monbeg Dude as Ante Post bets* and see no reason to add any more to either of them now.
With bookmakers increasingly opening up their shop window as the big race approaches we should see increased place terms coming to the fore – http://www.betvictor.com are already leading the way with ¼ odds 123456.. others could follow their example yet.There could well be more value to be had on Friday than there is now so I’ll hold fire to add other bets until then when the ground situation should be far clearer
This blog will be updated during the week as further news about the big race emerges. Daily previews for the other races will also appear each evening
For now, thanks for reading and enjoy the week ahead
Paul
(as always comments are most welcome on the site)
thefinalfence 