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York Ebor Day 2015

21 Aug
York Ebor Day 2015

A great triumph for Yorkshire on Day 3 of the Ebor Festival with Meccas Angel grabbing the headlines in the Nunthorpe.
I did wonder if the ground would be soft enough for her beforehand but crucially is had no jar in it and it didn’t inhibit her.
What the ground will be like tomorrow will largely depend on if rain arrives overnight. This evening the Met Office suggest a 50% chance of it for a few hours in the early hours.
This will make the difference between it staying slightly on the dead side or it drying out to good decent ground.
The opening race on Friday (run over a slightly shorter trip than Saturday’s Ebor) was dominated by prominent racers. The first three home were in the first 5 turning for home. However, they were following a relatively sedate early pace so we can’t really take this as an indication of what will happen tomorrow. Hold-up horses came good in later races when the pace was stronger.

Onto tomorrow’s big race the Ebor Handicap at 3.45
These big handicaps are never going to be easy but I do have a love for the longer distance ones and the Ebor is my favourite one of the year. It’s been won by some great favourites over the years – Sea Pigeon, Further Flight, Sergeant Cecil and Quick Ransom my favouries in descending order.
The complexion of the race has changed greatly in recent years. We just don’t get low weighted horses any more and there’s very little gap between top and bottom weight these days. Tomorrow there is only 9lbs separating top and bottom. This makes it much harder for the handicap ‘good things’ to get into the race and makes for a much more competitive and trickier to solve event.
A low draw used to be a big advantage when the field would come down the far side of the straight. Now that most races end up in the middle it’s much less of a handicap. I still wouldn’t say a high draw is ideal – particularly for a hold-up style of ride. It probably proved the undoing of favourite Pallasator last year who ended up too far out of his ground from stall 22.

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The outside berth this year is occupied by the sole 3yo in the race – Aidan O’Brien’s Fields of Athenry. This one vies for favouritism but I’m not sure he deserves to be as short as he is.
3 year olds don’t run in this race much in recent years. Because of the conditions and the allowances they get they need such a high handicap rating to get into the race.
Back in the 20th century some classy 3yos like Clerkenwell, Sapience and Protection Racket were good winners who subsequently proved themselves at Group level (the latter won the Irish St Leger in the same season) But they won carrying 7 st 11lb, 8st 4lbs and 8st 1lbs respectively.
The last 3yo to win was from the O’Brien stable in 2001. Mediterranean carried 8st 4lbs to victory then with a rating of 101. Since the 2002 renewal and the changing of the race there have been only three more three year olds competing – all from the O’Brien stable:

2009 Changingoftheguard 9st (rating 107)
2007 Honolulu 9st 2lbs (111) 2nd
2004 Mikado 8st 13lbs (106) 3rd

All 3 ran very well and then went on to contest the St Leger. Honolulu went off 13/8 fav for the Leger on the back of his fine run and came home 3rd.
Fields of Athenry is being asked to carry 9st 8lbs with his rating of 118 – a good deal more than any of these. He does have a 5lb claimer on board but that still gives him a bit of a mountain to climb.
While he looks a stayer and shouldn’t mind any cut in the ground, his form doesn’t really equate to the rating he has. His last win was beating a horse rated 21lbs lower at level weights by about 2 lengths. 3 starts ago he failed to give 22lbs to Botany Bay – a horse who runs in the 2.35 earlier as a big outsider with a rating of 85. This, and his other form tends to make me think his rating shouldn’t be any higher than about 105. I think the handicapper has given him a bit of a raw deal
It would be foolish to ignore that the O’Brien stable hope completely but history suggests to me that he will find one or two too good.
I’m also a little concerned that the Coolmore partners sold him earlier this week. If they did harbour serious St Leger claims with him would they have done that??

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Challenging for favouritism is the Willie Mullins/Frankie Dettori combo on Clondaw Warrior (also part owned by Ruby Walsh) who creeps into a race at the bottom after the withdrawal of Quest for More this morning. This combination struck with Max Dynamite on Friday and are bound to be popular picks.He’s 10 lbs higher than when successful at Royal Ascot over a much further trip. Both him and the second Fun Mac (4lbs better off for half a length ) came from near last that day suggesting they had gone a bit too fast up front.
That was run on faster ground than they’ll get here. On the face of it, Fun Mac could reverse the form on these terms but I have a feeling he may be less suited of the pair by the likely slower ground tomorrow. If he does cope with it then 14/1 Fun Mac is much better value than 6/1 Clondaw Warrior but I am swayed against both. They would both need to be ridden a bit more prominently in this race for me and I’m not sure that Ascot form is the strongest guide to this race.

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Willie Mullins also runs Wicklow Brave at around 10/1 but this horse is a complete enigma to me. When he’s good (as he showed at the Cheltenham Festival) he’s very very good…but when he’s bad he’s awful! He just seems to need everything to go right for him and I couldn’t back such a horse at such a short price. Added to that I think he could be a very tricky ride for a 7lb claimer. His form is largely over jumps and has so little flat form that it’s hard to judge whether his mark of 102 is good or bad. If he does win I would hope that Stewards have an enquiry to find out the reason for any improvement from his latest two runs.

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In his last race, Wicklow Brave was running over hurdles and well down the field behind Quick Jack. Tony Martin has already trained a winner this week and this one is 3rd in the market at around 7/1.

quickjack
For me, Quick Jack should be favourite. He’s on his highest ever mark on the flat of 101 but has been relatively lightly raced over the past 2 seasons and could still have some improvement in him. Stamina seemed to find him out when he looked likely to win the Cesarewitch last season. He won his last race easily and before that there was no disgrace in failing to beat subsequent Ascot Gold Cup hero Trip to Paris at Chester.
There are far less chinks in his armour – ground should be no problem for him if it rains or not – and I am struggling to see him out of the frame.

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Elsewhere, Astronereus is a thoroughly likeable individual whose consistency has seen him rise to a mark of 107 from 93 this season. He doesn’t seem to know how to run a bad race but he’s faced a lot of rivals already this season and formlines tie him too closely with many others for me. Ajman Bridge, Notarised, John Reel, Excellent Result, Arab Dawn (stamina and ground questions on this one)and Watersmeet are all linked on runs this season.

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I prefer to seek out something that isn’t quite so exposed on its mark and Arabian Comet fits that bill (put up as recommendation last night).
This trip looks ideal for her as long as there is a decent pace. She’s been given two pretty bad rides from the back at Goodwood this season and it’s no surprise to see Graham Lee replace Pat Cosgrave on board after his last debacle. She was narrowly beaten at this meeting last year and being by Dubawi I would expect her to be still improving – she just hasn’t had the chances to show it this season yet. Good ground seems to suit her fine – I’m not sure whether she was less suited by softer ground at Doncaster last season – or if she was just over the top by then. What we do know is that the William Haggas stable is in fine form this week so I was happy to get involved at 20/1.

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Pace of the race will be a big factor tomorrow and the key horse here is Notarised who does like to bowl along up front. Silvestre De Sousa would probably like to control things from there and if his lead was uncontested he could probably do so. However, I think he will be kept honest up front by John Reel in stall 2 – and possibly by stablemate Watersmeet – so am inclined to think that there won’t be an early crawl in the race.

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I will give a mention to two others.
Wadi Al Hatawi has never been beaten on his first starts of the season and on his last win at York he would be a contender. The problem is that is the only time he seems to win and we have to wonder if he performs best when fresh.
Nearly Caught wasn’t far behind Quick Jack in last year’s Cesarewitch and ran a fine third in the Northumberland Plate behind Quest for More and Max Dynamite. He was 8th in this race last year when staying on strongly at the finish. If the ground remains on the soft side and there is some overnight rain it will definitely suit him (it was a bit too quick for him here last year)
I find him tempting at 20/1 but if that price is still around in the morning after showers have been declared I’ll be having a saver for sure.

Selections
Quick Jack 1.5 pts ew @7/1 (BetVictor, Corals, Betfair Sportsbook..later pay out on first 5 if you can get on with them)
Arabian Comet already recommended 0.75 pts ew @20/1
(and keep an eye on the going for Nearly Caught in the morning!)

latest prices can be found here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-22-york/14:35/winner

Elsewhere the 2.35 is even more competitive than the Ebor but I’ve been waiting for King Bolete to get away from fast ground and will be supporting at 14/1. He just took an age to quicken up at Haydock last time when strongly supported. I think he needs good ground or slightly softer and the extra 2 furlongs should also help. Luca Cumani is always very positive about this horse on his website and I suspect he’s thought of as a 100+ performer going forward.

Happy Ebor day to all

Thanks for reading

Paul

 
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Posted by on August 21, 2015 in Aidan O'Brien, Ebor, Frankie Dettori, Luca Cumani, Silvestre De Sousa, Tony Martin, William Haggas, Willie Mullins, York

 

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York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 3

20 Aug

A very short post for Day 3 of the York Ebor meeting I’m afraid with my time available.
It’s a tricky meeting to assess so far. Day 1 strongly favoured prominent racers but after only 2mm of rain on Wednesday night the ground had livened up a little (although still slightly on the soft side of good). Despite a tailwind this seemed enough to give the hold-up performers much more of a chance on Thursday’s card.
With little rain forecast it could well be genuinely good ground by tomorrow.
There are no recommendations for me on Friday’s card but an early one is given for Saturday. The races are generally too competitive and I’m struggling to see any value.

My thoughts for the main race of the day – the Nunthorpe Stakes at 3.40:

A large 20 runner field with some strong early pace likely on both sides. Justineo (stall 1), Cotai Glory (8), Take Cover (19) and Stepper Point (20) are the likely early trailblazers. I’d still be a little concerned that there may be some dead ground in the first couple of furlongs on the stands side which could favour the pace coming from the lower draws.
That should favour the favourite Acapulco in box 4. The American 2yo – who more closely resembles a 4yo – was a Royal Ascot sensation when she ran away with the Queen Mary. Wesley Ward’s filly was physically some way ahead of her rivals then and although up against her elders then she has a huge weight allowance on her side in this event to counteract that.
I’m sure she is on a similar level to previous 2yo winners of this race (Kingsgate Native was a similar type) and is definitely the one to beat in my mind.
The ground may have been a bit of a worry a few days ago but it seems to be coming back in her favour. Her American pedigree wouldn’t have screamed out that she would be suited by cut but it should be noted that No Nay Never (probably the best known progeny of Scat Daddy to race on these shores in recent years) did win on Good to Soft in France as a 2yo.
It’s probably more of a concern for me that she is ridden by a jockey with no experience of English tracks.
If the ground does still look to be on the soft side then I’m quite sure that Mecca’s Angel would be the main danger. The more it dries out the less she is favoured though.
It’s unlikely to get fast enough for Goldream or the veteran Sole Power. I had an ante post interest at a very big price on Line of Reason after his Goodwood effort (would have been much closer but for being drawn on wrong side of the track). Likewise he needs fast ground though and so I have almost written that bet off now.
Muthmir won that Goodwood race but he’s plenty short enough for me now on the overall level of his form this season. The sensational strike rate of his trainer William Haggas this week should keep his price low.
Acapulco is the selection but not a strong one given the low price of around 2/1 in such a big field where traffic problems could be an issue.

acapulco

Elsewhere on the card I’m a little surprised to see Brian Meehan’s Perkunas chalked up at around 8/1 in the 4.20.
This is often a hot 2yo maiden and there look to be several decent types entered here. Meehan did make a point of saying he considered this one as his best chance of the week on Channel 4 last weekend and continues to be very positive about him on his website. His 2yos generally improve a lot on their debuts and Perkunas showed plenty of promise on his. I expected him to be shorter given the obvious heads up we have been given.

I’ll be back to focus on my favourite handicap race of the year, Saturday’s Ebor, tomorrow
Arabian Comet is my early recommendation which I will expand on more tomorrow.
She has been given some pretty mediocre rides this season by Pat Cosgrave and now that Graham Lee is taking over I think she is overpriced at a general 20/1 given the excellent form of the Haggas stable
Recommendation
0.75pts ew Arabian Comet 20/1 (generally available)

arabian comet

Thanks for reading
Paul

 
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Posted by on August 20, 2015 in Ebor, Nunthorpe, Wesley Ward, William Haggas, York

 

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York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 2

19 Aug
York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 2

A fairly extraordinary result with a 50/1 shock winner in the big race on the first day of the Ebor Festival.
Overnight rain had made the ground dead and that undoubtedly contributed to Arabian Queen’s victory. She did however have something in common with almost every leading performer on Tuesday in that she was never too far from the pace. The only ‘hold-up’ runner to do well came in the 5th race where Tony Martin’s Heartbreak City broke the day’s rules. It makes me wonder just how ‘well-in’ that Irish raider was and it would be no surprise to see him win again off a much higher mark.
With more rain forecast overnight we could be in for more of the same tomorrow and the ground may well soften up a bit more.
In expectation of similar conditions here are my brief thoughts for Thursday’s card.

1.55 Tasleet is the form horse here for sure but plenty short enough in price considering he has to give weight to most of the field. Orvar displayed some wayward tendencies in front last time which would be off-putting. Excessable was expected to win at Newbury last time but after looking the likely winner he ultimately faded on what was possibly the wrong side of the track. He is the most interesting of the bigger prices for me but I am concerned that he is more of a 5 furlong type and this could stretch him on the ground. No bet

2.30

I think Easton Angel was unfortunate to come up against an equine freak in Acapulco at Royal Ascot but still gave her some stern competition there. Hardly anything went right for her next time up at Newmarket where Paul Mulrennan made all the wrong choices as to which route to take – being carried across the track in the process. Besharah reversed Ascot form with her there but I think she can make the score 2-1 in her favour here. The ease in the ground should not be an issue – she has won on the soft already. She seemed to get the 6 furlongs well enough at Newmarket so this easier course should be fine – so hopefully she can be kept fairly handy.

eangel
Both Besharah and Easton Angel have been priced as if they have another monster to deal with in Lumiere here.
Mark Johnston’s filly won a fairly ordinary Newmarket maiden with any amount in hand and her price is based on a huge home reputation.
She has yet to prove herself at this level though and the ground is another unknown. She could prove up to the hype and win but based on what she has done on the racecourse she must be a ludicrously short priced favourite at around 6/4.

Ashadihan is a nice type and shouldn’t mind the ground but I can’t help but think she may get outpaced by the main contenders at this level and is crying out for 7 furlongs.
Recommendation:
Look for firms paying ¼ odds 123 here rather than 1/5th
2pts ew Easton Angel @9/2 (365, Skybet, Stan James)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-20-york/14:30/winner

3.05 David O’Meara is invariably one to keep on side of in these big handicaps but he doesn’t help matters by sending 8 runners here!
Stable jockey Danny Tudhope plumps for He’s No Saint but as that one has no form on slower ground, I wonder if the choice was made when it looked like quicker ground would prevail.
The stable’s number 2 jockey, Sam James, is on Russian Realm and that’s the one I’m sticking with at a big price.
A son of a 1,000 Guineas winner, this one has taken some time to find his form with his new stable. He finally got a win on the board as soon as he got some softer ground last time and with similar conditions likely again I give him a big chance here.
I can understand some early money for You’re Fired who has decent course form and will be glad to steer away from quick ground also. However his hold-up style is a bit of a concern given how races panned out on Wednesday.

russianrealm
Recommendation:
0.75pts ew Russian Realm 16/1 (generally available)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-20-york/15:05/winner

3.40 The Yorkshire Oaks is the days big race but I will most likely be swerving the race with many of the main contenders not really proven on softer surfaces. I may look again tomorrow here and update if necessary then.

4.20 A tricky race for fillies – many of whom are likely to be still improving. The most interesting contender for me is John Gosden’s Bright Approach. She was never going to cut much ice over an inadequate trip in a Group 1 race last time. Now she’s back on a slow surface – the first time since her maiden win as a 3yo –and over her proper trip, II wouldn’t be surprised to see why connections kept her in training at 4.
Recommendation 0.5pts ew Bright Approach 12/1 (generally available)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-20-york/16:20/winner

4.55 A fillies handicap but there are two likely types contesting it who looked destined for a higher level than this. Unfortunately the markets seem only too aware of this and Mistrusting and Spangled are both too short a price for me – especially as both are unproven on soft going

A blank day for me on Wednesday so hoping for better fortune today

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back
Paul

 
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Posted by on August 19, 2015 in David O'Meara, Ebor, John Gosden, York

 

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York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 1

18 Aug
York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 1

The blog returns for possibly my favourite Flat meeting of the year – York’s Ebor Festival.
As with last year it’s been hard work to get ahead on the Flat season. Uncertain ground (not helped by some courses being a bit too keen with their watering policies) is a constant issue I keep coming back to – throw in the added complication of draws and it makes analysis no easier sometimes.
I’m certainly finding it harder to get an edge on flat racing these days and am already looking forward to when the jumps return at a good level later this year.
As it was one of the closest tracks for me to visit in my youth, York (the ‘Ascot of the North’), always holds fond memories and is one of the big meetings where I will be hoping that more competitive pricing can give out some value.
As a course, it has its quirks that should be noted. In the past, a low draw in longer races was advantageous when most races remained on the far rail in the home straight. In recent years however this draw bias has been less important as the field often heads for the middle of the track instead.
The sprints over 5 and 6 furlongs could produce winners from all sides but since drainage work was done a few years ago, there do seem to be some channels of ground that are worse than others. I don’t see that many races won on the rails anymore – particularly on the stands side (and consequently a very high draw in big sprints can be a slight negative in my mind)
It’s also a track which did use to favour prominent runners more – although again this factor may be lessened by the racing taking place in the centre of the track. That ‘concertina’ effect can cause some unfortunate traffic problems for hold-up horses though so I’d still prefer something to be sitting not too far from the pace when they turn for home in the longer events

Wednesday’s opening day has one bet for me but first a quick say on the day’s showpiece event – one which should be the highlight of the week and maybe of the season.
3.40 Juddmonte International
It’s very rare we will see a Derby winner and a 2,000 Guineas winner from the same year taking each other on in a race. The fact that neither of them have been first past the post in every race of their careers to date mean that at least one will taste defeat for the first time.
John Gosden’s Golden Horn was the Epsom Derby victor and upheld that form in Sandown’s Eclipse when proving too good for the reopposing 4yo The Grey Gatsby (2nd in this race last year).

eclipse
He had to make his own pace there which made the win all the more meritorious. This time he has a pacemaker in Dick Doughtywylie. Add front running filly Arabian Queen into the equation and we should for once have a top class race this season where we can guarantee a good gallop from the start.
It’s hard to find negatives about this horse and with trip, ground and pace all looking ideal for him, he deserves his place at the head of the betting.
Supporters of The Grey Gatsby will be hoping he can do better on a course he has performed so well at before (lets not forget that Golden Horn won the Dante here easily though). He certainly may not have to take the race quite so early to Golden Horn as he did at Sandown and I would expect him to be challenging late on the scene. Strictly speaking it’s hard to see him turning the form around but he could profit from others battling too early here and pick up some pieces
The likely strong pace will be there to seek out stamina limitations in Aidan O’Brien’s 2000 Guineas victor, Gleneagles. He’s yet to race over more than a mile which at the time of his Classic win seemed to be suggested as his ideal trip. His sister Marvellous showed her best form over a mile but looked not to stay 12 furlongs. She never tried todays trip of 10 furlongs so we can’t really gain much from that. Gleneagles’ sire Galileo is a stamina influence but his dam was best at sprint trips.
He will get his desired ground and will be a tough opponent if his stamina holds but I just have a couple of niggling worries here aside from that.

gleneagles
He was pulled out of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood far too early for my liking (excuse of soft ground given – it had dried out by day of the race) and I just wonder if all was 100% with him.
He’s also without the services of injured Ryan Moore now. Joseph O’Brien resumes the ride he had last year but I’m afraid I just don’t rate in him in the same class as Moore on these big occasions when the difference between winning and losing can be so fine.
There is a fourth major player here though. Royal Ascot winner Time Test was immensely impressive in a fast time there and deserves his step up to this stage. It really is anyone’s guess as to how good this one is and he’s the real dark one of the race who could well have the ability to surprise the Classic winners.

timetst
The likely fastish ground is probably going to be against Aussie hope Criterion. He showed at Ascot that he’s a few lengths below this class on quick ground and all reports suggest he needs a softer surface to bring his A game into play.
It’s a fascinating race in which I would be struggling to pick out the winner with any great conviction.
The prices on offer are about right for me and so I won’t be getting involved but just watching the race.
If 8 runners do line up for the race that means 3 places will be paid and I think there might be some each way value in The Grey Gatsby at around 12/1 then. If there is a non –runner and we go down to a field of 7, only 2 places will be paid and the value of that bet would diminish considerably

The rest of Tuesday’s card I find quite tricky.
Bogart is a bit of a cliff horse for me in the opener and has place chances under what seem to be close to his optimum conditions.However, all too often he seems to fade away in the last 50 yards these days so I would need a decent double figure price with 5 places to be attracted.
In the main back up race, the Great Voltigeur, at 3.05, I can make a case for all bar one of the 7 runners (Medrano needs much softer ground at this level to have any chance). I will happily pass that one by!

It’s the last race on the card where my one bet of the day is to be found.
4.55
Sir Roger Moore is one of 4 runners in the 20 strong field that has Group race entries. He is entered at Group 1 level along with Whitman and Kassia (Dream Destination has a Group 3 entry). He ran an encouraging 3rd on his debut back here in May.at the Dante meeting The winner of that race, Seastrom, hasn’t raced since and the second hasn’t really advertised the form. A few that were behind him that day have gone onto show the worth of it though. (Another Touch for instance was behind in 4th that day and was an impressive Nursery winner off a mark of 7 earlier this month).
Charlie Hills colt was considered good enough to head for the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next start. Not surprisingly he wasn’t good enough and his stall 1 berth did this free going sort no favours. He wasn’t able to get cover early there and wasted too much energy too early.
He still finished in front of Qeyaadah though who reopposes here on 10lb worse terms here!
He then dropped back in grade for a Goodwood maiden. Very little went right here but I’m quite glad that the Racing Post didn’t seem to fully notice what a horrendous passage he suffered as this probably helps with his price here.
Again he was slightly keen early but Graham Gibbons soon got him settled before starting to make a run. He was then almost knocked off twice when trying to find a passage before being allowed to coast in in his own time in 8th.
I think he would have gone very close to winning that race that day with more luck in running and on previous formlines his opening handicap mark of 81 could be a little lenient.
In stall 6 this time, I’m hoping he can get some early cover again to get him settled early. Then given the usual luck needed in a 20 runner race I think he has an excellent chance to prevail and go some way to justifying his Group race entries. Early money for John Quinn’s Reputation suggests he could be on a lucrative mark and perhaps the biggest danger – Kassia has performed well at a better level than this but is at a disadvantage for a filly in having to give weight to the selection

(Noticeable that connections pulled out Sir Roger Moore from what looked an easy winning opportunity at Windsor on Monday night (ground excuse given) to go for this)

Recommendation:

1.5 pts ew Sir Roger Moore @14/1 (Skybet, BetVictor, Pady Power, 888)

Current prices available here : http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-19-york/16:55/winner

Thanks for reading as usual
Good luck all!

Paul

(comments as usual are always welcomed)

 
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Posted by on August 18, 2015 in 2000 Guineas, Aidan O'Brien, Derby, Ebor, Gleneagles, Golden Horn, Juddmonte International, York

 

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Eclipse Day & John Smiths Cup

03 Jul
Eclipse Day & John Smiths Cup

What looked a potentially decent weekend for betting has been somewhat dashed by the weather gods.
The hot weather has left ground a bit too fast at Sandown. The feature race – the Coral Eclipse – sees Derby winner Golden Horn face only 4 rivals in his bid to maintain an unbeaten record. The form of that win is looking all the better following a boost in the Irish Derby and he really should win. At odds of no more than 2/5 he’s hardly a value bet though considering the small field and no obvious front runner in the race. It could easily end up a tactical affair in a falsely run race and is best left to watch.
Fast ground has also seen the unsurprising withdrawal of Meccas Angel in the 2.00. Waady is 2 from 2 at the course this season over this trip and fast ground – and has a decent draw making him firmly the one to beat. He’ll probably go off around 2/1 now though – and that’s plenty short enough.
Haydock had a couple of races that looked of definite interest midweek but once again this course has done its best to ruin some potentially decent events by course mismanagement.
With rain expected, it’s hard to fathom why watering took place on Wednesday night. Good to Firm ground was declared for the first race on Thursday and it was quickly apparent by the time it was nowhere near that. Within no time at all it was changed to Good to Soft.
This isn’t the first time there have been erroneous ground descriptions from this venue. It can only be a matter of time before the name of the Clerk of the Course, Kirkland Tellwright, enters Rogers Profannisaurus in some guise – and for all of the wrong reasons!
What all of this only confirms that Haydock is a poor place to hold any advance views as the going information just isn’t reliable enough. Its only when seeing times and a visual impression of the ground that an opinion can be made.
The circumstances have certainly helped Lady Tiana’s case in the Lancashire Oaks at 2.15. The softer the better for her, so if it looks hard work in the opener she is definitely the one to beat.
There have already been non runners in the supporting Old Newton Cup at 2.50 due to the ground situation. If it remains bad I’m half expecting fast ground loving Battersea to join them and add a Rule 4 deduction to current odds.
Penhill will appreciate the easier ground and was reported to have not handled the track at Newmarket last time. I think he has the potential to be a good bit better than his mark but does need to settle a bit better in his races – something that makes his odds for this race look a tad short. Kinema appeals most of the outsiders as he still remains a bit unexposed at this trip.

All in all this is a weekend to watch and keep stakes low so I have no recommendations. However I do have a strong fancy for an Ante Post punt next week.
Mount Logan had a slightly unfortunate passage at Royal Ascot last time when a close fourth and would have undoubtedly given winner Mahsoob (now Group race bound) more to do but for that. He comes into next weeks John Smiths Cup off the same mark as a result and I think he’s overpriced at 12/1.
Trainer Luca Cumani has intimated on his website that he is a most likely runner (ahead of stablemate Ajman Bridge – trainer has a good line to potential rival Arab Dawn through that)
Lightning Spear is current favourite but is by no means a certain runner holding an alternative engagement in the shorter Bunbury Cup at Newmarket next weekend. A quote from his trainer Olly Stevens after his latest impressive win is a little telling to me –

We´ve got a variety of options for Lightning Spear. He´s in a Listed race on Saturday, but I wouldn´t have thought we´d rush him back. We´ll discuss things with the owners, but it´s hard to change things when you keep winning. However, he has the speed for 7f and the class for 1m2f so he´s in two big handicaps over those trips – the Bunbury Cup and John Smith´s Cup. It was a shame he didn´t make the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, and while we might be forced to go for something higher later in the year, a handicap is the next logical step

This would suggest to me that his optimum trip is between the two distances mentioned and that would favour the Bunbury Cup option. (Ground at both courses may also play a factor of course)
We also have Sahaafy and Spark Plug close to the head of the betting next week. As they are both running at Sandown tomorrow it would be a bit quick to expect them out again unless either win impressively and try to take quick advantage of their marks.
There is some chance of thunderstorms next week but hopefully that will only serve to make York’s ground (currently Good to Firm) just ease slightly before the weekend. Mount Logan’s only dismal performance last season came on almost unraceable heavy ground at Doncaster and anything like that is highly unlikely.
Given he looks the most likely to run of the principals and holds strong form claims I can see him being much shorter than current odds this time next week and think now is the time to jump in
Recommendation
1.5pts ew Mount Logan – John Smiths Cup – 12/1 (SportingBet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Stan James, Betfair Sportsbook)

mt logan

Thanks for reading and good luck

Paul

 
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Posted by on July 3, 2015 in Golden Horn, Haydock, John Smiths Cup, Kirkland Tellwright, Sandown, York

 

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York – Dante meeting – Day 1

12 May

York’s Dante meeting kicks off on Wednesday and it’s the opening handicap on the card (2.10) that sees my first recommendation for Day 1.
With 20 runners due to line up this should be a competitive race but John Gosden’s unbeaten Mahsoob dominates early exchanges at 7/2.
He’s been priced as if he’s the proverbial ‘Group horse in a handicap’ and is certainly likely to be a good deal better than his narrow win at Newbury from a mark of 89 ( got up late from a bad draw and second has run well in defeat since).
He’s on an 8lb higher mark tomorrow which means he’s 4lb worse off with the similarly unexposed Field of Fame who was 3rd in that event. That should make it close between the two on these revised terms.
With a maximum of 11/2 available on Field of Fame however, I prefer to look for another formline where there is better value and am siding with What About Carlo, a strong finishing 4th in the Lincoln earlier this season.
He was well backed to follow up subsequently at Epsom (6/1 the night before to 11/4 SP) but according to trainer Eve Johnson-Houghton he had a ‘massive sulk’ in the race. I think the ground may have been plenty quick enough there and he probably didn’t enjoy a continual barging match with Mount Logan from Tattenham Corner.
The ground ought to be a little easier at York tomorrow and there’s certainly none of Epsom’s cambers to affect him being crowded in the same way.

whataboutcarlo
The Lincoln run was full of promise for the season ahead and he is on the same mark here of 98 on a trip that should suit ideally. I would be hoping for a good gallop here and a hold up ride from William Buick and then he can perhaps replicate his record from last season where he produced his best performance on his third start (after a disappointing second one).

Recommendation
0.75pts ew What About Carlo @16/1 (general)

Prices correct at 1730 BST 12th May

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-05-13-york/14:10/winner

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Selections in the back up races on tv:
2.40 Mass Rally needs to be held up until the very last-minute but when it all goes right he’s a very decent horse with two C&D wins from higher marks than tomorrows 97 to his name. He’s 8 now but his seasonal debut at Pontefract looked all over a warm up for this meeting. Unfortunately, others seem to have seen this too and he’s already been backed to less than 10/1 – a tad too short for me in a race where he will need plenty of luck against some decent opposition. (He never got a run and looked unlucky when 9th here last year)

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3.15 Hard to discount anything readily and no surprise to see 4 of them fighting for favouritism around 5/1. If the ground does ride quick I might be backing Lucky Kristale to topple them all after an eye-catching reappearance run at Newmarket where she lost a shoe (can see there being little between her and the winner there Astaire).

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3.45 Looks a two-horse race for the Musidora, a recognised Oaks trial. It’s likely to be very tactical in such a small field and I just favour Star of Seville getting 4lbs from Together Forever – but the prices don’t really appeal on either

After the Channel 4 tv coverage ends there’s another bet to be had in the 4.20 (lack of prices available for this earlier today)

Foreign Diplomat seems to have found himself on a very lenient looking mark of 81 here. I say lenient as he has 2yo form that ties up closely with Desert Force who is currently on a 94 rating. He was a promising type last year who didnt quite fulfil as much as maybe anticipated. His easy 3yo maiden win gave every encouragement that he can do better this season and it should be remembered that this one had Group 1 entries last season so was obviously well thought of. William Haggas is a very good placer of his horses and I feel it significant he’s brought this one up to the big meeting in his native Yorkshire. I think he could go off much shorter than the 6/1 currently available on him for this race

Recomendation

1.5pts ew Foreign Diplomat 6/1 (365, Skybet, BetVictor, Ladbrokes, Boyles)

*prices available at 2042 BST 12/05

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Good luck with whatever you back

Thanks for reading – comments always welcome

Paul

RESULTS:

What About Carlo looks one to avoid now after another performance that looked like he wasn’t in love with the game any more. The winner Mahsoob did indeed look a Group race horse of the future with the way he won.(-1.5pts)

Foreign Diplomat travelled well, was slightly hampered but then didn’t find as much as looked likely. He’s probably better than where he ultimately finished but even with an uninterrupted passage it probably didnt cost him a place.(-3pts)

RUNNING BALANCE now 48.03 pts from the initial bank of 50pts

 
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Posted by on May 12, 2015 in Flat racing, William Haggas, York

 

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