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York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 2

York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 2

A fairly extraordinary result with a 50/1 shock winner in the big race on the first day of the Ebor Festival.
Overnight rain had made the ground dead and that undoubtedly contributed to Arabian Queen’s victory. She did however have something in common with almost every leading performer on Tuesday in that she was never too far from the pace. The only ‘hold-up’ runner to do well came in the 5th race where Tony Martin’s Heartbreak City broke the day’s rules. It makes me wonder just how ‘well-in’ that Irish raider was and it would be no surprise to see him win again off a much higher mark.
With more rain forecast overnight we could be in for more of the same tomorrow and the ground may well soften up a bit more.
In expectation of similar conditions here are my brief thoughts for Thursday’s card.


1.55 Tasleet is the form horse here for sure but plenty short enough in price considering he has to give weight to most of the field. Orvar displayed some wayward tendencies in front last time which would be off-putting. Excessable was expected to win at Newbury last time but after looking the likely winner he ultimately faded on what was possibly the wrong side of the track. He is the most interesting of the bigger prices for me but I am concerned that he is more of a 5 furlong type and this could stretch him on the ground. No bet


2.30

I think Easton Angel was unfortunate to come up against an equine freak in Acapulco at Royal Ascot but still gave her some stern competition there. Hardly anything went right for her next time up at Newmarket where Paul Mulrennan made all the wrong choices as to which route to take – being carried across the track in the process. Besharah reversed Ascot form with her there but I think she can make the score 2-1 in her favour here. The ease in the ground should not be an issue – she has won on the soft already. She seemed to get the 6 furlongs well enough at Newmarket so this easier course should be fine – so hopefully she can be kept fairly handy.

eangel
Both Besharah and Easton Angel have been priced as if they have another monster to deal with in Lumiere here.
Mark Johnston’s filly won a fairly ordinary Newmarket maiden with any amount in hand and her price is based on a huge home reputation.
She has yet to prove herself at this level though and the ground is another unknown. She could prove up to the hype and win but based on what she has done on the racecourse she must be a ludicrously short priced favourite at around 6/4.

Ashadihan is a nice type and shouldn’t mind the ground but I can’t help but think she may get outpaced by the main contenders at this level and is crying out for 7 furlongs.
Recommendation:
Look for firms paying ¼ odds 123 here rather than 1/5th
2pts ew Easton Angel @9/2 (365, Skybet, Stan James)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-20-york/14:30/winner


3.05 David O’Meara is invariably one to keep on side of in these big handicaps but he doesn’t help matters by sending 8 runners here!
Stable jockey Danny Tudhope plumps for He’s No Saint but as that one has no form on slower ground, I wonder if the choice was made when it looked like quicker ground would prevail.
The stable’s number 2 jockey, Sam James, is on Russian Realm and that’s the one I’m sticking with at a big price.
A son of a 1,000 Guineas winner, this one has taken some time to find his form with his new stable. He finally got a win on the board as soon as he got some softer ground last time and with similar conditions likely again I give him a big chance here.
I can understand some early money for You’re Fired who has decent course form and will be glad to steer away from quick ground also. However his hold-up style is a bit of a concern given how races panned out on Wednesday.

russianrealm
Recommendation:
0.75pts ew Russian Realm 16/1 (generally available)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-20-york/15:05/winner


3.40 The Yorkshire Oaks is the days big race but I will most likely be swerving the race with many of the main contenders not really proven on softer surfaces. I may look again tomorrow here and update if necessary then.


4.20 A tricky race for fillies – many of whom are likely to be still improving. The most interesting contender for me is John Gosden’s Bright Approach. She was never going to cut much ice over an inadequate trip in a Group 1 race last time. Now she’s back on a slow surface – the first time since her maiden win as a 3yo –and over her proper trip, II wouldn’t be surprised to see why connections kept her in training at 4.
Recommendation 0.5pts ew Bright Approach 12/1 (generally available)

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-20-york/16:20/winner


4.55 A fillies handicap but there are two likely types contesting it who looked destined for a higher level than this. Unfortunately the markets seem only too aware of this and Mistrusting and Spangled are both too short a price for me – especially as both are unproven on soft going

A blank day for me on Wednesday so hoping for better fortune today

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back
Paul

 
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Posted by on August 19, 2015 in David O'Meara, Ebor, John Gosden, York

 

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York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 1

York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 1

The blog returns for possibly my favourite Flat meeting of the year – York’s Ebor Festival.
As with last year it’s been hard work to get ahead on the Flat season. Uncertain ground (not helped by some courses being a bit too keen with their watering policies) is a constant issue I keep coming back to – throw in the added complication of draws and it makes analysis no easier sometimes.
I’m certainly finding it harder to get an edge on flat racing these days and am already looking forward to when the jumps return at a good level later this year.
As it was one of the closest tracks for me to visit in my youth, York (the ‘Ascot of the North’), always holds fond memories and is one of the big meetings where I will be hoping that more competitive pricing can give out some value.
As a course, it has its quirks that should be noted. In the past, a low draw in longer races was advantageous when most races remained on the far rail in the home straight. In recent years however this draw bias has been less important as the field often heads for the middle of the track instead.
The sprints over 5 and 6 furlongs could produce winners from all sides but since drainage work was done a few years ago, there do seem to be some channels of ground that are worse than others. I don’t see that many races won on the rails anymore – particularly on the stands side (and consequently a very high draw in big sprints can be a slight negative in my mind)
It’s also a track which did use to favour prominent runners more – although again this factor may be lessened by the racing taking place in the centre of the track. That ‘concertina’ effect can cause some unfortunate traffic problems for hold-up horses though so I’d still prefer something to be sitting not too far from the pace when they turn for home in the longer events


Wednesday’s opening day has one bet for me but first a quick say on the day’s showpiece event – one which should be the highlight of the week and maybe of the season.
3.40 Juddmonte International
It’s very rare we will see a Derby winner and a 2,000 Guineas winner from the same year taking each other on in a race. The fact that neither of them have been first past the post in every race of their careers to date mean that at least one will taste defeat for the first time.
John Gosden’s Golden Horn was the Epsom Derby victor and upheld that form in Sandown’s Eclipse when proving too good for the reopposing 4yo The Grey Gatsby (2nd in this race last year).

eclipse
He had to make his own pace there which made the win all the more meritorious. This time he has a pacemaker in Dick Doughtywylie. Add front running filly Arabian Queen into the equation and we should for once have a top class race this season where we can guarantee a good gallop from the start.
It’s hard to find negatives about this horse and with trip, ground and pace all looking ideal for him, he deserves his place at the head of the betting.
Supporters of The Grey Gatsby will be hoping he can do better on a course he has performed so well at before (lets not forget that Golden Horn won the Dante here easily though). He certainly may not have to take the race quite so early to Golden Horn as he did at Sandown and I would expect him to be challenging late on the scene. Strictly speaking it’s hard to see him turning the form around but he could profit from others battling too early here and pick up some pieces
The likely strong pace will be there to seek out stamina limitations in Aidan O’Brien’s 2000 Guineas victor, Gleneagles. He’s yet to race over more than a mile which at the time of his Classic win seemed to be suggested as his ideal trip. His sister Marvellous showed her best form over a mile but looked not to stay 12 furlongs. She never tried todays trip of 10 furlongs so we can’t really gain much from that. Gleneagles’ sire Galileo is a stamina influence but his dam was best at sprint trips.
He will get his desired ground and will be a tough opponent if his stamina holds but I just have a couple of niggling worries here aside from that.

gleneagles
He was pulled out of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood far too early for my liking (excuse of soft ground given – it had dried out by day of the race) and I just wonder if all was 100% with him.
He’s also without the services of injured Ryan Moore now. Joseph O’Brien resumes the ride he had last year but I’m afraid I just don’t rate in him in the same class as Moore on these big occasions when the difference between winning and losing can be so fine.
There is a fourth major player here though. Royal Ascot winner Time Test was immensely impressive in a fast time there and deserves his step up to this stage. It really is anyone’s guess as to how good this one is and he’s the real dark one of the race who could well have the ability to surprise the Classic winners.

timetst
The likely fastish ground is probably going to be against Aussie hope Criterion. He showed at Ascot that he’s a few lengths below this class on quick ground and all reports suggest he needs a softer surface to bring his A game into play.
It’s a fascinating race in which I would be struggling to pick out the winner with any great conviction.
The prices on offer are about right for me and so I won’t be getting involved but just watching the race.
If 8 runners do line up for the race that means 3 places will be paid and I think there might be some each way value in The Grey Gatsby at around 12/1 then. If there is a non –runner and we go down to a field of 7, only 2 places will be paid and the value of that bet would diminish considerably


The rest of Tuesday’s card I find quite tricky.
Bogart is a bit of a cliff horse for me in the opener and has place chances under what seem to be close to his optimum conditions.However, all too often he seems to fade away in the last 50 yards these days so I would need a decent double figure price with 5 places to be attracted.
In the main back up race, the Great Voltigeur, at 3.05, I can make a case for all bar one of the 7 runners (Medrano needs much softer ground at this level to have any chance). I will happily pass that one by!


It’s the last race on the card where my one bet of the day is to be found.
4.55
Sir Roger Moore is one of 4 runners in the 20 strong field that has Group race entries. He is entered at Group 1 level along with Whitman and Kassia (Dream Destination has a Group 3 entry). He ran an encouraging 3rd on his debut back here in May.at the Dante meeting The winner of that race, Seastrom, hasn’t raced since and the second hasn’t really advertised the form. A few that were behind him that day have gone onto show the worth of it though. (Another Touch for instance was behind in 4th that day and was an impressive Nursery winner off a mark of 7 earlier this month).
Charlie Hills colt was considered good enough to head for the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next start. Not surprisingly he wasn’t good enough and his stall 1 berth did this free going sort no favours. He wasn’t able to get cover early there and wasted too much energy too early.
He still finished in front of Qeyaadah though who reopposes here on 10lb worse terms here!
He then dropped back in grade for a Goodwood maiden. Very little went right here but I’m quite glad that the Racing Post didn’t seem to fully notice what a horrendous passage he suffered as this probably helps with his price here.
Again he was slightly keen early but Graham Gibbons soon got him settled before starting to make a run. He was then almost knocked off twice when trying to find a passage before being allowed to coast in in his own time in 8th.
I think he would have gone very close to winning that race that day with more luck in running and on previous formlines his opening handicap mark of 81 could be a little lenient.
In stall 6 this time, I’m hoping he can get some early cover again to get him settled early. Then given the usual luck needed in a 20 runner race I think he has an excellent chance to prevail and go some way to justifying his Group race entries. Early money for John Quinn’s Reputation suggests he could be on a lucrative mark and perhaps the biggest danger – Kassia has performed well at a better level than this but is at a disadvantage for a filly in having to give weight to the selection

(Noticeable that connections pulled out Sir Roger Moore from what looked an easy winning opportunity at Windsor on Monday night (ground excuse given) to go for this)

Recommendation:

1.5 pts ew Sir Roger Moore @14/1 (Skybet, BetVictor, Pady Power, 888)

Current prices available here : http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-19-york/16:55/winner

Thanks for reading as usual
Good luck all!

Paul

(comments as usual are always welcomed)

 

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