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Monthly Archives: March 2024

Cheltenham 2024 – Day 4

14 Mar

Onto the final day’s action 

As I write with 3 races complete on Day 3, the ground appears to be improving a little and is now Soft rather than Heavy. If we get no rain in the next 24 hours, then it could be decent conditions tomorrow. There is currently some rain forecast overnight though. A check of conditions tomorrow morning will influence the strength of some of my picks below. For now, I’m assuming it will be the same as today 

A nice winner on the blog on day 3 with Shakemupharry means recommended bets are now showing a 10.7 pt profit this week from 32 pt staked (including places from Ginnys Destiny and Where It All Began). Golden Ace not recommended but favourably mentioned. Hopefully some latched onto her as well.

A proper JP McManus plot came to fruition in the last with Inothewayurthinking winning easily and justifying a fairly ridiculous looking price of 13/8 in a 22 runner handicap.

A good day for the UK side otherwise with 5 winners from the 7 races

*******

130 Triumph Hurdle 

Sadly, the problems with the Henderson stable meant that ante post favourite Sir Gino was taken out of this race today. At least we got to know the news early so markets could be adjusted in good time 

It’s hard not to see an Irish success with only heavy ground loving SALVER seemingly having any chance for the home side. It’s impossible to equate his form against the Irish but I would suspect he hasn’t beaten too much of note as yet – even if he hasn’t been pushed to do so. 

Most of the Irish runners have been running against each other this season and their form is closely tied. There is no standout contender amongst them. KARGESE came out best at Leopardstown last time but given that was MAJBOROUGH’s first run since leaving France, it would be no surprise to see him improve enough to turn the table. 

NURBURGRING didn’t run there but was only a nose behind KARGESE in his last run. He’s a classy flat staying performer and I feel wasn’t suited at all by the slow pace that day. A stronger gallop here looks to be ideal for him. I like he’s been given a break to freshen up for this and with the stable already winning one juvenile hurdle at this meeting he’s my favoured option. 

SALVATOR MUNDI hasn’t run since April last year when just beaten by Sir Gino in France. That form reads very well now but his preparation has been held up and he was forced to miss the big Leopardstown trial. Coming here on his first run for Mullins is pitching in very deep very quickly. Jockey booking doesn’t suggest he’s the main hope of the Mullins stable either. I suspect he’s more of a project now to keep his maiden status here with novice hurdling in mind next season. 

VERDICT. With the ground not quite as deep as it was, I think the useful flat performer Nurburgring will be favoured most and with some firms offering 4 places will do for me. 

RECOMMENDATION: 1.5 pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (with firms offering 1/5 odds 1234) 

*****

210 County Hcap Hurdle 

Dan Skelton has already been in terrific form at this Festival, and this is the race in which he has always excelled. Both L’EAU DU SUD and last year’s winner FAIVOIR therefore have to be prime contenders here. Both ran very well when they were in 2nd and 5th place in Newbury’s Tote Gold Trophy. FAIVOIR has done that form no harm since. He still remains on a good mark here while L’EAU DU SUD was raised 6 pounds since Newbury. Oddsmakers are well aware of the Skelton record here though so don’t expect generous pricing 

KING OF KINGSFIELD had ABSURDE behind him when both were some way behind the two principles in a hot novice event last time. However, that was behind two horses who have won here since this week. His mark of 140 certainly looks very generous now. I just wonder if he wants better ground, but his class could still see him through 

It’s last year’s race where I go to find an outsider who I think could run well here. It’s always a tough ask for 5-year-olds to do well in handicap hurdles but PETIT TONNERRE didn’t do badly at all to be 6 lengths behind FAIVOIR and the second PIED PIPER. He’s had an interesting time over chases this season where I often got the feeling his mark was being looked after. He reverts to hurdles here and connections have reached for a first-time visor. Six is a much better age for this race and his mark is now 4 pounds lower 

VERDICT. I think a few at the top of the market are just a bit too short so am going for a bit of value with all the extra places being offered 

RECOMMENDATION 0.5 pts ew PETIT TONNERRE (look for 25/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or more) 

*****

250 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 

Soft ground for this longer distance novice event can often throw some surprise winners. It’s sometimes the experience and hardened types who can get their moment in the sun. 

I think there is no more promising novice in the UK than GIDLEIGH PARK, but I do worry if 3 miles in soft ground at this stage of his development could be too much. If he were mine, I’d rather they skipped this race and saved him for Aintree if being honest 

He’s much more attractively priced than READINTOMMYWRONG who also promises to improve again over this trip but is unproven. The price here is no doubt influenced by the power of his stable in the novices department

VERDICT. I’m a big fan of GIDLEIGH PARK and wouldn’t want to back against him. I’d rather back win only here as it’s the type of race I could see many runners being looked after for the future if the test appears to be too much for them 

RECOMMENDATION 

1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK taking 13/2 or better 

*****

330 Cheltenham Gold Cup 

The premier race of the meeting sees rivalry ensued by last year’s impressive winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and FASTORSLOW. They have never met on this course but since have met 3 times and the score is currently 2-1 to FASTORSLOW. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has won the latest duel coming out victorious by 4 lengths 

I can’t really envisage a winner coming outside of these 2. Last year’s Grand National winner CORACH RAMBLER would be dangerous if within spitting distance with half a mile to go but I fear he may get himself too far detached. 

The state of the ground will have some bearing here. The softer it is favours GALOPIN DES CHAMPS but if it dries some more, it gets closer. It’s been noticeable that FASTORSLOW has gained more lengths while jumping than his rival in all their meetings. 

Also worth noting that FASTORSLOW had wind surgery straight after his last run. 

VERDICT. It is the pricing that dictates matter for me here. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is around Evens while FASTORSLOW is around 5/1. I think the former remains the likeliest winner but don’t see the gap between them being as big as odds suggest. I also struggle to see FASTORSLOW out of the frame and with many firms offering an enhanced four places that has to be the value play for me . Mullins Gold Cup winners tend to have come here when they have had a light and easy preparation. This year things haven’t been always so smooth in th warm up to make me think the favourite is a certainty

RECOMMENDATION; 2pts ew FASTORSLOW 5/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

*****

410 Foxhunters Chase 

I’ve never been an expert on the point to point/hunter chase realm so will have to take a pass on it here. The only vibe I really get is that FERNS LOCK would have stamina issues on this trip/ground 

NO BET 

*****

450 Mares Chase 

DINOBLUE’s form is clearly the best here but it all comes at 2 miles. Over an extra half mile on soft ground there has to be a question mark that I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking 11/10 to find out the answer. 

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from BRIDES HILL this season and apparently no horse works better in Gavin Cromwell’s yard. The ground is her issue. I would have no hesitation in backing her here on good to soft or better, but this may be too soft? 

Stablemate LIMERICK LACE will have no such ground issues. She really wants a longer trip but will expose any stamina frailties in rivals. It’s interesting that Keith Donoghue seemed to be certainly riding Brides Hill a week ago but has switched to her. 

ALLEGORIE DE VASSY was second last year but is a quirky mare who definitely has two ways of running. She’s capable of winning but not reliable. 

VERDICT. Not a race for me to get involved with until I’ve seen what the ground is like mid afternoon tomorrow. I do favour the two Cromwell mares’ chances at the prices. If the ground appears to be drying, I’d be with BRIDES HILL. If it remains testing, then I’d favour LIMERICK LACE. But for now……NO BET 

*****

530 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle 

The final race is often full of budding talent that could be beyond the grip of the handicapper. It’s not that long since Galopin Des Champs first advertised his talent in this. 

The market certainly expects QUAI DE BOURBON and WATERFORD WHISPERS to be two such types. Prices of 3/1 and 4/1 in a competitive 23 runner handicap don’t get me jumping in the air with excitement though. WATERFORD WHISPERS’s form is closely tied with ANSWER TO KAYF who is double the price. 

I like the fact that ANSWER TO KAYF has been ridden regularly by the same conditional rider who accompanies him here. I’d just feel a bit happier if John Shinnick had some previous experience on this course. 

A mention also has to be given to OCASTLE DES MOTTES who was a warm favourite for the Tote Gold Trophy but lost his chance when getting upset at the start. He retains a mark that looks generous on his previous French form 

NO ORDINARY JOE was second in this last year off only a 1-pound lower mark. He looked to be being set up for the race again but as he comes from the troubled Henderson stable it’s impossible to be sure if he’ll be 100% here 

VERDICT: I slightly favour ANSWER TO KAYF but am struggling to see any great value in odds available right now’ A couple of firms offering 9/1 on him right now is close to a recommendation for small stakes. I’d ideally like to see him slip out to a double figure price tomorrow to get involved 

NO BET 

****

That’s all for Day 4 and for this year’s Cheltenham Festival 

Hope you have enjoyed reading today and throughout the week 

Paul 

SUMMARY OF DAY 4 RECOMMENDATIONS 

130 1.5pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

210 0.5pts ew PETIT TONNERRE 25/1 (taking 1/5odds 123456) 

250 1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK 13/2 

330 2pts EW FASTORSLOW 5/1 (take 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

TOTAL STAKED 9.5 PTS 

 
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Posted by on March 14, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham 2024 – Day 3

13 Mar

It’s St Patrick’s Thursday today and given what’s already happened so far this week there should be further cause to celebrate in the Emerald Isle today. 

The main vanguard trainer of UK hopes – Nicky Henderson – continues to be having a nightmare of a meeting. Jonbon yesterday and Shishkin (Friday’s Gold Cup) became non-runners due to excessively poor form of stable runners in recent days. There could be more withdrawals to come from that stable before the week is out (Lucky Place did run well today but others most definitely have a problem) 

*****

130 Turners Novices Chase 

Irish hopes for a perfect start today rest mainly with FACILE VEGA. The son of 5 times festival winner Quevega, there has always been mighty expectation of this horse. He won the Bumper here two years ago, then finished second in the meeting opener last year. His chasing career hasn’t gone quite to plan so far, and he is stepped up in trip here in an attempt to put less pressure on his jumping. He has something to prove in the chasing sphere still to me and I think his price is too short compared to his actual chance. 

GREY DAWNING is shortest priced of the home side with the market favouring him to turn round earlier season form with GINNYS DESTINY. I’m not so sure he will. He looks like an impressive horse on flatter tracks but do the undulations here ideally suit? He got beaten by making a shuddering mistake two fences out and I wouldn’t be surprised if his jumping was put under scrutiny again here. 

GINNYS DESTINY is unbeaten here this season and his professional jumping style is always going to be an asset. Whilst it may look on paper he may struggle to confirm form with Grey Dawning, he looked to improve significantly last time out. He didn’t get any easy lead that time but that didn’t bother him at all. To win a very competitive handicap as he did under 12 stones was a top-class effort in my eyes 

IROKO adds further spice and looked like a great prospect early in the season until he got sidelined with injury. It looked like he would be out until next year, but connections have got him back. It would be some feat of training though to get him back to the level required to win this. 

Verdict: GINNYS DESTINY is the most solid option here for me. Firms seem keen to lay him but I can’t figure out quite why. Possibly due to two stable runners performing badly this week? There were excuses for both of them though, so I don’t see any reason to press a panic button there yet. Anyway, his price has drifted from about 3/1 to 5/1 today and I’m not complaining about that 

Recommendation; 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY (take 5/1 if you can but 9/2 also acceptable) 

******

210 Pertemps Network Final Hcap Hurdle 

Horses have to qualify for this by finishing in the first 4 of any ‘heats’ held during the year. The qualification criteria used to be far easier for runners to sneak into the race by not trying too hard (or by not running at all if races were abandoned). It’s much harder to do that now – and that’s a good thing for this race in my view 

MILL GREEN has a very consistent record at the Festival. He has jumped the last hurdle in the lead in this race the last two years and finished 3rd on both occasions (beating all his rivals on the stands side of track both times). He may be 12 now but still looked to have lost nothing of his ability when qualifying last time at Exeter. He looked likely to win then but got hampered and the cause wasn’t persevered with. As a result, his mark wasn’t increased, and it looked like a perfect prep to me. The problem is he is trained by Nicky Henderson – a huge black spot there given what has happened this week. 

Stablemate Lucky Place ran very well yesterday but others most definitely haven’t. He would be a recommendation here, but the stable form is once again impossible to factor in now 

Others of note who may be a little better than their mark: 

CUTHBERT DIBBLE is progressive and in the fullness of time may be better than 139. However, I’d worry about just how hard a race he had last time in desperate ground at Haydock. 

LE MILOS. All his best form comes chasing but he would have a higher handicap mark there. His form this season is noting special but then so was his stablemate Langer Dan. Dan Skelton showed once again yesterday how he can prime one perfectly for a big handicap hurdle here. 

ICARE ALLEN. Hasn’t run since qualifying in November. Could easily be plotted up for this. Most of his form at 2 miles but that has looked patently too short a trip for him lately. Go back to his Triumph hurdle 4th in 2022 and you would say he is thrown in here..but there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then 

VERDICT. I’m hoping the old boy Mill Green hasn’t come down with whatever is plaguing his stable, he could easily be declared a non-runner yet. I have backed him ante post but couldn’t put him up as a bet now with all the doubts around 

NO BET 

*******

250 Ryanair Chase 

BANBRIDGE would be the one to beat here on his favoured good ground. He was taken out of the meeting last year when the ground was soft – not as soft as this – and I’m surprised he’s still running. Don’t be surprised to see him pulled out yet and a deduction made to all prices being offered. 

I see this as a wide-open race where I can give some sort of a chance to everything. 

Because of that it’s a NO BET race on this side…. if someone put a gun to my head to make a selection, I’d still probably end up giving out three of four! 

*****

330 Stayers Hurdle 

TEAHUPOO came third here last year when favourite. He’s been kept fresher this year and he is most definitely the one to beat in my mind. The price at under 2/1 is just a bit too low now after he has come in for recent support.

SIRE DU BERLAIS and DASHEL DRASHER beat him last year when they started racing very early and it turned into a war to get home up the hill. Both them and PAISLEY PARK are firmly in the veteran stage now but would be very popular winners 

If it did turn into a similar power battle though they should all fear NOBLE YEATS who uses this as prep race for the Grand National and will stay every yard of this trip and much more.

I do think a year older TEAHUPOO will be too strong for all of these though. 

CRAMBO is the UK’s new young hope. It would be great for local trainer, cake-loving Fergal O’Brien to get his first Festival success here. There can’t be many more popular trainers in the game. I would like to have seen some course form from him coming into this though 

VERDICT; TEAHUPOO would have to be my selection but he’s a bit too short to recommend a bet on. 

*****

410 Plate Hcap Chase 

CREBILLY is the JP McManus plot horse here. His form certainly makes you think his mark of 140 is lenient. I have a major worry here though that all his best form comes in small fields and a 21-runner handicap may be his undoing. 7/2 represents no value to me with this in mind

THEATRE MAN has already got some of ante post money at 10/1 and his chances will get a big boost if Ginnys Destiny (who beat him last time out) wins the opener. Harry Cobden is a great booking, but the value now seems to have been sucked out of his price a bit. 

There is still a bit of juice in the odds of SHAKEM UP’HARRY though. He seemed to take his form up a level here on New Years Day and has done well to be raised only 3 pounds from that. He was only a pound lower when third in this race last year and is arguably a better horse now. With Harry Redknapp owning this one expect some scenes if he wins! 

I have to give an honourable mention to a big outsider in STRAW FAN JACK. He has dropped to a very attractive mark after two lack-lustre runs recently. He’d probably prefer better ground but if Sheila Lewis has found an answer to his problems, I think he is very well in on his back form 

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12345 

*****

420 Mares Novices Hurdle 

This could be one of the highlights of the meetings with 4 very classy looking young mares facing off. 

DYSART ENOS and GOLDEN ACE head the home team. The former came out easily best in Aintree’s bumper last season. Golden Ace looks to have improved this season though with hurdles now brought in. 

They have both been campaigned away from the top level this season to avoid getting a penalty for this race. 

Consequently, these two will receive 5 pounds from the two Irish favourites. 

Willie Mullins’s record in mares’ races speaks for itself and in any other year, JADE DE GRUGY, would be the natural favourite here. She has a strong reputation but the vibes from Gordon Elliott’s yard have been so strong for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. The ‘best horse he’s ever had’ has been mooted here – and that is from a stable that has had some very big stars of the past 

Verdict. I find it hard to ignore the vibes for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. This is a bit like Fact to File yesterday, in that one side of me is saying that price is too short and should be laid, but the other side is telling me she could be very special. If any firm offered 4 places on this race I’d be tempted to take GOLDEN ACE. She’s looked very good herself but may be up against the impossible this time. There is huge difference between getting 3 or 4 places for your each-way bets on this race 

NO BET 

****

530 Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys Hcap 

INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN heads the market here and does have the look of another McManus plot. He’s looked like he’s been held back a bit at times in an effort to get a decent mark here – and he does have about the best amateur jockey available in Derek O’Connor. His mark of 145 might be a tad generous compared to his hurdling form but not by that much. His price is too low for me given he has to shoulder top weight here and the trip is a complete unknown. 

AMIRITE could be well in off 142 but seems to need much better ground. BOWTOGREATNESS could also win something decent off 133 but his best form seems to come on flat tracks. 

WHEREITALLBEGAN would probably love a longer trip but on this soft ground – and a likely too quick pace in an amateur race – that could bring his stamina into play. He’s on a much higher mark than his last win but that was a very clear-cut victory. He is part of a good Gordon Elliott challenge here. FAKIR D’ALENE was 4th in this race two years ago off a one-pound higher mark (four pounds if we count Rob James’s claim). His last two runs haven’t been inspiring, but the back form is definitely there 

ANGELS DAWN won this last year but is on an 11-pound higher mark now and much more exposed than he was. 

For the home team, I like RAPPER, who can be in an out, but has performed well at this course before. We can ignore his ‘pulled up’ effort in this race last year as he bled from the nose. A return to form was signaled last time out and he is now on a 4-pound lower mark than last season. He’s won twice off 137 before – is on 138 now but with Anthony O’Neill’s 3 pound claim he is effectively 135. Anthony doesn’t ride too often but being the son of Jonjo O’Neill, I don’t think we can question his pedigree for this! 

VERDICT. With 6 places available with some firms, I’m backing three here. The first two should be in the form to be very competitive – the third needs to bounce back but I feel is a bit overpriced 

RECOMMENDATIONS 

1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN taking 12/1 or better with firms offering 6 places 

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 or better with 6 places 

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE taking 25/1 or better with 6 places 

(5pts in total staked) 

That’s a wrap for Day 3 

Thanks for reading and best of luck with whatever you back 

Paul 

SUMMARY OF DAY 3 RECOMMENDATIONS 

130 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY 5/1 (1/5 123) 

410 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1(1/5 odds 12345) 

530 1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 12/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE 25/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

Total staked on day 11 pts

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival Day 2 – 2024

12 Mar

The second day of the Cheltenham Festival has somehow acquired the moniker of ‘Style Wednesday’. Whilst not attending the meeting I’ll have to remember to don my smoking jacket and cravat now for tomorrow’s fare! If you are going – and the weather is the same as on Tuesday morning – the ‘style’ decision maybe what colour Hunter wellies to wear. 

A quick resume of Tuesday’s action first: 

The stable form of Nicky Henderson was given no boost at all by Jeriko Du Reponet pulling up in the opener. Luccia did run well in the Champion Hurdle but Iberico Lord and Maries Rock also underperformed badly. 

More rain than was expected contributed to some very testing heavy ground.  It’s been dry during today and with little rain on the forecast tomorrow it may slip back to Soft going. There is an inspection at 8am for the Cross Country course which was waterlogged today. That will only affect the 410 race but if that does get cancelled we may get some time changes on the remainder of the card 

A great start to the meeting for this blog with Slade Steel winning the opener. Unfortunately couldn’t add any more but The Goffer (ground too heavy for him I ear) and Milan Tino crept into advised places. That ends up with a 3.3 pt profit on the days recommendations.

Tomorrow isn’t as appealing generally on the betting front for me but my thoughts with a few recommendations below

*****

130 Gallaghers Novices Hurdle 

Not the most competitive look to the opener with the Willie Mullins stable fielding 5 of the 8 runners – including the first 3 in the betting. 

BALLYBURN has had the appearance of being a banker in whichever race he ran here in for a while. The victory of his latest victim, Slade Steel, in Tuesday’s opener has cemented this even more. Stamina and ground don’t look to be in question so it’s hard to see any other winner now. 

If the UK side do have a surprise up their sleeve it should be HANDSTANDS. Ben Pauling knows what it takes to win this race after Willoughby Court in 2017.  This one is full of potential and unbeaten in four races – albeit at a lower level. He is being chucked in at the deep end now but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him run well. (Pauling had no issues about the deep ground for Handstands today when asked on Racing TV) 

VERDICT 

Ballyburn should win but the price is too short for me to recommend. I admit to a small each way bet ante post on Handstands at 16/1 but that guarantees 3 places. Here would need the 8 runners all to start to get that and I think the task ahead of him increased after todays action 

NO BET 

*****

210 Brown Advisory Novices Chase 

Another small field with only six here. FACT TO FILE has been the subject of glowing reviews from his stable and in preview evenings coming into this. ‘The next Gold Cup winner’ is a general vibe. I’d normally like to take his profile on given he has beaten very few horses in small fields. However, he did so in some very good times. I the combination of trip and ground isn’t an issue for him I’m inclined to think there may be something behind the hype here. At around EVS I wouldn’t want to bet him, but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either. 

He appeared to break the will of his only rival Gaelic Warrior last time. That one did no harm to the form though on Tuesday! 

STAY AWAY FAY won the 3-mile novice hurdle here last season and we can expect him to try and make this a test to exploit any stamina chinks. I think his connections may have preferred a bigger field though where he wouldn’t have to do all the donkey work himself. 

MONTYS STAR looks a similar staying type to Stay Away Fay but wrapped up in a larger form. He didnt perform well on the course last year – that’s a negative but his stable have been performing well on day one

SANDOR CLEGANE was a bit unlucky behind Stay Away Fay here last season and at the start of the season was of interest to me for this race. He hasn’t looked like the most natural chaser so far though. His run last time looked to be a confidence boosting one to get him round safely. If he can jump quicker, I can see him running well at a price. But this isn’t the track or level of race to be on learning on 

VERDICT 

Another race that doesn’t entice me in to bet. Fact to File is my idea of the winner but again I don’t see enough value in the price to get involved 

NO BET 

****

250 Coral Cup 

Some disappointment for me now coming into this competitive handicap. I had DODDIETHEGREAT and LUCKY PLACE marked down as my early picks. They are both trained by Nicky Henderson though and after day 1, the stable form there remains a major concern. 

The form of Doddiethegreat’s last run has been hugely boosted since and he looked like the step up in trip here would suit him greatly. 

Lucky Place’s latest course run against a very talented rival in Gidleigh Park was form that surpassed his mark of 137 in my view. The softer ground here would be a small question mark 

They would have both been a recommendation but for the elephant in the room that now exists! 

SA MAJESTE looks like a typical well hyped but underpriced Willie Mullins runner in a handicap. He’s fairly impossible to handicap, is very inexperienced and could be ten pounds well in or ten pounds badly in. As my post from last week suggests, following Mullins in handicaps isn’t the road to riches. 

BUILT BY BALLYMORE is much more one to be wary of. The market isn’t taking any chances here though. Trainer Martin Brassil is possibly the most underrated trainer in Ireland and had two close seconds in handicaps at last year’s Festival. Again, it’s hard to handicap him properly but the team behind is much more one to fear in this kind of scenario in my mind 

I’ve backed BALLYADAM at the Festival before but feel better ground will suit him 

LANGER DAN won this race off the same mark last year and having performed so well at this time of the year before has to be on the shortlist. Again, I’m not sure if the ground might be riding a bit too deep for him though 

MIGHT I will have no problems with the ground and ran well at the Festival last year off a higher mark. He’s spent this season chasing so far – and not very successfully. If that hasn’t taken its toll and Harry Fry has managed to get him back to his best, he would be a big runner here 

VERDICT: I thought I had this race cornered but the huge issue of Henderson stable form has prevented me getting involved at this stage 

NO BET 

*****

330 Queen Mother Champion Chase 

A few weeks ago, this looked like a two-horse race with EL FABIOLO and JONBON renewing rivalry. El Fabiolo was much the best in the Arkle last year and remains unbeaten in 6 chase races. Interest has been boosted though by a renaissance of form from 2022 Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE.  

Alan King’s runner had been comfortable held by Jonbon twice this season when given hold up rides. However, he was allowed to bowl along up front last time and put in an exemplary round of precision jumping to win easily at Newbury. 

This race now revolves around Edwardstone being given free rein up front once more. If he performs like he did at Newbury his superior jumping could take others out of their comfort zone. Both El Fabiolo and Jonbon can make mistakes (the latter appears to be getting worse and was even seen belting a fence in schooling on YouTube recently). 

If he can get in such a rhythm and unsettle the others, it’s then a question of him having enough in the tank to last home in soft ground. 

I think El Fabiolo is still the most likely winner here, but I wouldn’t be touching him at short odds. 

I can easily see Edwardstone bettering Jonbon this time though. 

CAPTAIN GUINNESS was second in this last year and could also benefit if ridden quietly behind the principals and pick rivals off late. He was a sick horse at Christmas and was patently looked after in an encouraging reappearance at Leopardstown in February. I’m not sure he’d have wanted all the rain that came early this week though. Some drying ground and I can see him placing again

The presence of another front runner in GENTLEMAN DU MEE and prominent racer ELIXIR DE NUTZ should ensure this race is run at a good clip. There should be no hiding places for any of them here 

VERDICT. Whilst thinking El Fabiolo might well win I see more value in supporting Edwardstone each way. I can’t imagine they won’t employ the same tactics as suited him so well last time. I’d also like him in the Betting Without favourite market 

Recommendation 

1pt ew EDWARDSTONE – generally available 15/2 (as there are 8 runners 3 places will be paid. If there is a non-runner this may revert to 2 places but always worth checking if some firms offer the more advantageous 3 places) 

*****

410 Cross Country Chase 

However soft/heavy the regular track is, the cross-country course is reported to be worse. I’ve been no fan of this style of race for betting for many years and will happily pass again. It seems to have developed into a race for Gold Cup veterans these days 

A fairly categoric (as usual in this race) NO BET 

****

450 Grand Annual Hcap Chase 

This race was always a regular target for Nicky Henderson as it is run in honour of his father. We don’t need to worry about stable form this time as he doesn’t have a runner this year. 

The market seems to think SAINT ROI has been laid out for the race, but I couldn’t touch him given the abysmal jumping he displayed at Leopardstown last time veering violently to the right at times. 

HARPERS BROOK is extremely quirky but has found a niche for his talents at two miles this season. He carries a health warning though as he is prone to stop when in front. If he is 10 lengths clear at last don’t assume he has it in the bag. If you back him a lay bet on Betfair Exchange at short odds is strongly encouraged for some insurance. 

PATH D’OROUX is an interesting contender from a stable that knows how to plot for race like this. He will like the ground but is his jumping good enough? 

LIBBERTY HUNTER is the progressive novice in the pack that often does well in this race but has to defy a large rise from the handicapper. MADARA is also on an upward curve but 13 pounds higher than his last win at this track. 

TRIPLE TRADE caught Harpers Brook on the run in at Ascot earlier in the season and reopposes on the same terms. However, he is a much larger price as his latest run at Lingfield was disappointing. That looked to be bad to be true. He has looked to be suited by the uphill finish here before. The ground is a slight question mark but as he’s won on heavy earlier in his career. The Tizzard team may not have the best record in handicaps here but they were in good form over the weekend 

VERDICT; I’m willing to give Triple Trade a chance to get his progression back on track here given the odds available 

Recommendation:  

0.5 pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (generally available with 1/5 odds 12345 – 6 places in one place) 

*****

530 Champion Bumper 

Another specialist race with no jumping involved. It’s a nursery in essence for next year’s hurdling novice hurdle events. Willie Mullins traditionally has a great record and has won 4 of the last 6 runnings. That’s not surprising though given he many runners he normally fields. This year he fields 9 of the 24 runners. 

If jockey bookings are a sign, then his favoured would be JASMIN DE VAUX (Patrick Mullins) and CANTICO (Paul Townend). 

That doesn’t always go to plan here though and he has won with bigger priced runners as well. 

My eye is mainly drawn to C’EST TA CHANCE who was the subject of positive reports before Christmas. He was narrowly beaten by William Munny is his only start but after that one looked really special on his next start; the form doesn’t look bad at all. 

THE YELLOW CLAY from Gordon Elliott’s stable was the eyecatcher in the main trial race for this at Leopardstown in February. I’m just a little concerned that stable jockey jack Kennedy has chosen JALON D’OUDAIRES instead. 

Verdict: Not a race to go wild on with stakes but I’m willing to take a chance on C’est Ta Chance at decent odds 

Recommendation 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 16/1 or better (take with firms offering 1/5 odds 12345 if possible) 

Thanks for reading once more and good luck 

Paul 

WEDNESDAY RECOMMENDATIONS 

330 1pt ew EDWARDSTONE 15/2  

450 0.5pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (taking 1/5 odds 123) 

530 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 161 (taking 1/5 odds 123) 

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2024 – Day 1

11 Mar

The time has come again for this blog to come alive for a week of what should be National Hunt racing’s premier meeting. 

But first some personal venting of the spleen…on a subject that has come to the fore this season. 

It must be said this year there is a bit less excitement coming into the event than usual. For a purist, like myself, who has been an avid watcher since the mid 1970s, there definitely isn’t the same buzz about Festival that there used to be. 

Extra races over recent years have resulted in too many choices of options to run in. This dilution has now, more than ever, resulted in too many uncompetitive championship races with smaller fields and short priced favourites. Coming into the meeting, it used to be clear which horses would be racing there. Now it can be a complete guessing game until final declarations are made. A couple of weeks ago we had two horses listed at 4/7 to win the Champion Hurdle. This just looked plain farcical. 

Thankfully, the prospect of a fifth day for the Festival now seems to have passed and hopefully a return to less races can be done to avoid completely destroying the goose that laid this golden egg! 

With lower prize money in the UK, the domination of Irish powerhouse trainers has spiraled to make the lack of competition even worse. The cost of attending a day at the Festival has also risen to crazy proportions. 

Hopefully these issues can be looked at. On a personal level, I’d like to see mid distance championship races and mares championship races moved to a meeting like Aintree. This would allow the best horses to compete against each other in the same races here and to still have the option to double up! 

That’s enough ranting for the week anyway!…..onto the racing itself, which will hopefully still present some betting opportunities throughout the 4 days ahead. 

The Week ahead and some useful sites… 

It looks certain that we’ll be starting om some taxing soft ground for Day 1 after more rain fell on the track over the weekend. Local trainers have already been reporting that the ground is saturated after so much winter rain. However good the Cheltenham drainage might be, it must be near impossible to dry out in the time left to get to the usual good/good to soft start for the meeting this year. 

Regular updates on the ground throughout the meeting can be found on this page https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/ 

The best site to check out the various odds from different firms (and where to find the best place terms) is here https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival. This will show where the best odds can be found but also which place terms are being offered. It makes a world of difference to the value of a bet if one firm pays 4 places and another pays only 3. I’ll often post that a bet is best taken where the place terms are enhanced for that reason 

As I’ve mentioned in the past, a knowledge of statistics from previous years is always useful to have in your armoury. No better place to get these than www.gaultstats.com 

****

Onto Tuesday’s card and some personal thoughts: 

130 Supreme Novice Hurdle 

The dominance of the Willie Mullins stable in recent years is perfectly encapsulated here as 6 of the 12 runners are trained by him. Apart from seeing who his number one jockey, Paul Townend, has chosen to ride (TULLYHILL here), you’d really need to be privy to some inside info from the Closutton gallops to know how they really compare. Until recently, it seemed the stable number one would be Ballyburn – but with that one switching to Wednesday’s longer race the waters have muddies some more. 

We therefore don’t have a previous Grade 1 winner in the race, and also (unusually) nothing with any respectable previous course form in the field. 

Both TULLYHILL and MYSTICAL POWER (Townend wouldn’t have had choice to ride as Mark Walsh in number one jockey for owner) have undoubted ability but their jumping ability hasn’t always impressed. 

Gordon Elliott is represented by FIREFOX who has to bounce back from a disappointing effort over a longer trip last time out. Prior to that he had defeated Ballyburn. Whilst that form reads well the reports suggest it was a falsely run race that developed into a late sprint. The form may not be quite as good as it initially looks, and almost certainly Ballyburn improved massively afterwards with more forceful tactics being employed 

The UK team is fronted by JERIKO DU REPONET but there is a real question mark over the form of his stable. Apart from Spring Note’s win last weekend, Nicky Henderson has had a torrid time of late. His ace hurdler, Constitution Hill, had to be pulled out of the Champion Hurdle with blood tests explaining some significantly below par home workouts. Several other runners recently have been pulled up to only emphasize how bad stable form is. The performance of Jeriko Du Reponet is going to be a serious benchmark for the rest of the week. There is a definite risk factor in backing him with this in mind. 

The most solid option for me is Henry De Bromhead’s SLADE STEEL who chased home Ballyburn last time and runs here to avoid that horse again. I can imagine that something was still left to work on with him that day, but he was still well clear of the rest of the field and had solid winning form on soft ground before. 

It could well be that the Mullins team think they still have the firepower to beat him. However, at a price of 9/2 or more and some firms offering 4 places, I struggle to imagine that there are more than 3 horses here who can beat him. Assuming he comes in the first four at that price it still means virtually money back in case Mullins team retain an ace in their pack. 

Additionally, there is no problem with the current form of the De Bromhead stable. Out of 6 runners on Sunday, they had 3 winners and 3 placed! 

VERDICT. 

Back Slade Steel at 9/2 or more with firms offering Each way 1/5 odds 1234  

2PTS ew SLADE STEEL at 9/2 or better with four places 

****

210 Arkle Trophy 

A championship race for novice chasers over 2 miles – and thank goodness we have a competitive one. Some renewals of this race recently have had short-priced favourites and low fields. Here we have a field of 10 and apart from rank outsider, AUTHORISED SPEED, I can make a case for all of them (and a negative for all as well) 

This scenario would normally scream out ‘No Bet’ for me so I’d only play if the odds on something were well above what I expected. 

GAELIC WARRIOR and FOUND A FIFTY have both performed well on similar left handed tracks before but have shown a marked tendency to jump to the right in doing so. That’s too big an issue for me to ignore here. 

IL ETAIT TEMPS has yet to replicate his Leopardstown form elsewhere and was disappointing for me here in last years opener after a similar preparation. 

HUNTERS YARN is inexperienced, and while also very promising, he also ran below par on only Festival outing last year. 

I don’t think QUILIXIOS is the same horse as he was when winning the Triumph Hurdle here as a 4yo but he looks a safe jumper who can keep out of trouble at the front of the race. 

MATATA may well be up front with him and has performed well at the track before. A slight worry here that Daryl Jacob could have ridden him but chose Hunters Yarn 

JPR ONE beat MATATA by half a length last time out at Lingfield and would have won here before Christmas but for an unfortunate fall. The Tizzard team was in good form over the weekend so he should not be underestimated but a tendency to idle in front could make him vulnerable on the final hill here. 

MASTER CHEWY was 8 lengths back at Lingfield but he lost all chance there at a first fence incident. We can safely ignore that and his performance in a fast run event at Kempton over Christmas gives him every chance if he can be delivered late. Tom Bellamy was on board there and I’m glad to see him reunited (Sam Twiston Davies riding his stablemate Matata) . Does he need a flat track though is a slight concern 

If the ground was good I’d definitely be picking MY MATE MOZZIE to have the race set up for him to come late. Soft ground probably isn’t his ideal surface but it isn’t completely against him judged on his past form 

VERDICT. A tight race that I won’t b recommending a bet on given all the positives and negatives. There’s too many negatives for me for those at the front of the betting. If I had to choose one it would be My Mate Mozzie but I can see the home side of JPR One, Matata and Master Chewy all having a chance at decent odds. The Irish contingent would all have been better hurdlers but these 3 UK runners have all improved a lot for going chasing. 

*Take note only a handful of firms offer 4 places here which would make a big difference if having an each way bet 

*****

250 Ultima Hcap Chase 

A typically competitive handicap where MEETINGOFTHEWATERS has been popular early after some favourable comments in recent preview evenings. He was given a ‘Gold Cup winner in waiting’ tag at one and could be ‘a stone well in’. The price is short as a result with layers understandably scared of his mercurial trainer, Emmet Mullins. 

If he is as good as those whispers mooted he might well win but on his actual form he is too short a price for me. 

THE GOFFER is vying with him for favouritism and is much more justifiably priced. His fourth in this race off a 2lb higher mark was a fine effort considering what the 1st and 2nd in that race went on to do (Corach Rambler and Fastorslow). A recent win in a charity race won’t show up on his form stats but looks an ideal low key prep for this. Soft ground will be fine (if it got any worse it may be a slight concern). His trainer Gordon Elliott comes out well on previous handicap stats so that’s an additional positive 

Novice chasers also have a good record in this and I also have to support TRELAWNE in this race. He’s racing over shorter trips this season and performing well – but he looks for all the world that 3 miles will bring out further improvement. The booking of Harry Cobden is an added bonus and I’m pleased to see cheekpieces are retained. The lack of headgear at Wetherby seemed to contribute to some wayward hanging to the right that was corrected next time out. 

Low weights can be favoured in this race and would take my eye but only 2 have crept in below 11 stone this year. WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT could be well handicapped and his poor last run was explained by a fibrillating heart. He still has a bit to prove with that condition in mind but if he did come back to form he would have a chance. GEVREY also get another honourable mention at big odds. He outperformed at this meeting last year when placing at 125/1. He’s higher weighted now but now it’s springtime again I could see his form take a leap again 

VERDICT: A tight race where I’ll be backing THE GOFFER and TRELAWNE and looking for 6/1 and 8/1 respectively. Ideally taking them with books offering 6 places  

1pt ew each THE GOFFER 6/1 and TRELAWNE 8/1 (ew 1/5 odds 123456) 

*****

330 Champion Hurdle 

The supposed Premier race of the day is the least attractive for betting in my eyes. The defection of the clear champion in the 2-mile hurdling realm (he would have been a short priced favourite) has only served to give us another likely winner at short odds. STATE MAN was clearly second best last year, but is seemingly way ahead of the rest in this division. At best odds of around 2/5 it’s not hard to say he’s the likely winner and he should win this. As long as there remain 8 runners there is an each way option of getting 3 places but nothing is leaping out to me as guaranteed to be 2nd or 3rd. A race I’ll happily just watch. 

VERDICT. State Man should win but no bet at restrictive odds 

****

410 Mares Hurdle 

Team Mullins again dominates the betting here with LOSSIEMOUTH favourite at around 4/6 and stable mate ASHROE DIAMOND the only rival at single figure odds. Ideally, we would have seen Lossiemouth contending the previous race against State Man and these two races would have suddenly become more competitive.  

I’m not sure the combination of trip and ground is ideal for Ashroe Diamond here to be seen to her best advantage. The ground is probably less of a problem for Lossiemouth but the trip of two and a half miles is a step into the unknown. She did look more of a speed horse to me last year 

To exploit any stamina chinks. Something else will have to make this race a test to negate the favourite’s turn of foot, The trouble is I’m not sure who will as there isn’t an obvious front runner in the field. 

MARIES ROCK has won the race before and will stay but can run too freely and is best being held up (also comes with the Henderson stable form question mark). LOVE ENVOI was second last year and appeals most as the one who could benefit from a test on the likely soft ground…but will she have to make her own running to do it? She certainly won’t get any help from any of the 4 Mullins runners. Last year’s Mares Novice winner YOU WEAR IT WELL led all the way and could be an influence in the outcome of this race if similar tactics are employed again. 

VERDICT. Lossiemouth the likeliest winner but given the possible stamina issue I won’t be backing at prohibitive odds. LOVE ENVOI appeals as the best each way option. Her chances will be increased if there is a good pace on testing ground. No enhanced place terms here at time of writing so just a small each bet at 14/1 recommended 

0.5 pts ew LOVE ENVOI 14/1 

*****

450 Boodles Juvenile Hcap Hurdle 

It’s slightly weird to see the Paul Nicholls stable having their only runner of the day here with top weight LIARI. He’s unbeaten in 3 races this season and so carries a justifiable top weight here. I have to be put off by the recent years’ stats on Nicholls in handicaps (see my post last week). All his wins have also been on flat tracks, completely different to here. 

Early favourite LARK IN THE MORNING may well be well handicapped but I can’t help but think he would prefer better ground and I’m much more taken by the chances of market rival MILAN TINO. 

Connections must have been over the moon to see his mark dropped to 126 for this race (had been 136 based on his French form). The soft ground here should be right up his street and with course experience already gained I make him the one to beat. 

At much bigger odds I also like another course winner AN BRADAN FEASA, who had Milan Tino behind him here earlier in the season. 

On the face of it, he may struggle to reverse Musselburgh form with Liari who beat him 8 lengths and is only 5 pounds better off. However, I’d very much have seen that as a prep run where he might not have been fully tuned up – and this being his prime target on a course he has performed well at before. There has been some 40/1 available on him which is far too big for me…33/1 would also be very acceptable to me in a race where extra places will be paid 

ROARING LEGEND also ran very well in that Musselburgh race but has disappointed on soft ground since. I fear the soft ground will be against him again here but should conditions suddenly improve he would become an interesting outsider as well. 

Recommendations 

1.5 pts ew MILAN TINO 6/1 or more  

0.5 pts ew AN BRADAN FEASA 33/1 or better 

(taking firms offering 6 places rather than 5 if possible) 

*****

530 National Hunt Chase 

Another race that has been changed in recent years. It used to be over 4 miles and qualifying criteria was aimed at slow maturing types who didn’t have a back catalogue of wins in their earlier career. That used to supply a consistently large field but the new criteria has resulted in small fields and taken away horses from Wednesday’s 3-mile novice event. 

We have 7 runners declared this year – and at least a more competitive look than we’ve had on some other recent editions. It’s possible to give all seven a chance. 

There is often a gulf between the top amateur riders in Ireland and those in the UK but the seven we have here do not include any that would put me off having a bet. 

I can find some negatives for those at the front of the betting here. 

CORBETTS CROSS’s fall last time wasn’t his fault but it’s still not ideal as a preparation. His run at the Festival last year when in contention but running out at the final hurdle is also a slight cause for concern. Stamina for this extended trip on soft ground also gives me enough of a doubt at short odds. 

EMBASSY GARDENS did even worse here last year – a performance attributed to him ‘boiling over’ in the preliminaries. You’d want to see the huge crowds aren’t having an effect on him again here. Stamina is less of a problem, but I wouldn’t be going overboard about his latest win. While impressively beating Sandor Clegane, the latter looked to have more of a confidence boosting run on the side of the track with patently worse ground. 

SALVADOR ZIGGY has so much form on decent ground that I have to feel the soft conditions here may be a negative for him. 

This leads me to bigger prices KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY as better options. Both were just behind HENRYS FRIEND last time but on this softer ground and stiffer trip I can see a reverse.on the cards 

With 7 runners, most firms will only offer 2 places each way here, but some are offering 3 places as enhanced terms and that’s here to go 

VERDICT; KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY both appeal as each way bets with firms offering the 1/5 odds 123 enhancement 

1pt ew on both KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY taking 10/1 or better with that place enhancement recommended. (4pts stake in total)

*****

That concludes Tuesday’s fare. I’ll be back on Tuesday evening with a preview for Wednesday after digesting the first day’s results (Henderson stable form on day one could well be a big factor for forthcoming days)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back 

Paul 

Summary of Tuesday Recommendations:

130 2pts ew Slade Steel 9/2 or better taking 1/5 odds 1234

250 1pt ew The Goffer 6/1; 1pt ew Trelawne 8/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12456

410 0.5pts ew Love Envo1 14/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 123

450 1.5pts ew Milan Tino 6/1 or better; 0.5 pts ew An Bradan Feasa 33/1 or better (taking 1/5 odds 123456)

530 1pt ew Kilbeg King; 1pt ew Apple Away – taking 10/1 or better on both with selected firms who offer 1/5 odds 123

(total 17 pts staked on day 1)

 
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Posted by on March 11, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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