Onto the final day’s action and as I start to write my preview tomorrow it is a key topic in British conversations that is at the forefront of my mind – the weather!
We‘ve had two days of Good ground action but it is currently starting to rain at the track and there are varying expectations of how much will fall in the next 24 hours. It seems to be windy as well which can also have a drying effect to make predictions even harder
The ground can be such a factor here that a significant change in it can throw completely different results. Please bear this in my mind with what I have written below.
With all that in mind here we go for the final day of action on Gold Cup day…
1.20 JCB Triumph Hurdle
Last year Willie Mullins ran no less than 11 of the 17 runners – and won this with a 100/1 outsider. It brought back memories of this race last century when shock winners were commonplace. Some changes made after last year mean that hurdling debutantes can no longer run – and this time the Mullins team can only run nine horses J
Stable jockey Paul Townend has chosen to ride Selma De Vary from a choice of 8 (Proactif naturally is ridden by his owner’s retained rider Mark Walsh). She ran an eyecatching race on here Irish debut to be second to what would have been the hot favourite for this – Narciso Has – before injury took him out of the race.
The issue with her and so many others in this race is that all their form comes from soft/heavy winter ground.
Mon Creuset from the Mullins also deserves a mention as his ante post price tumbled after some positive comments from the trainer last week.
You would need some info from the Closutton yard to feel confident as to merits of this lot though as there is no collateral form on decent ground to work from. Minella Academy has been held back since November and his pedigree suggests that may be to avoid the winter ground. He is interesting with Danny Mullins riding – that suggests he is higher up in the stable pecking order
Scottish trained Minella Study does have course winning form and is proven on decent ground so might be the ‘safe option’. His defeat of Winston Junior last time was franked by that one’s run here on Tuesday.
Maestro Conti also has course winning form and did win on good going at Kempton. He is another strong contender for the home side.
Highland Crystal’s defeat of Saratoga (giving him weight) last time out also got a big boost on Tuesday. She is another whose form is all on soft though.
Of the outsiders, North Shore, has French form suggesting that better ground might suit than he has faced in Ireland so far.
I wouldn’t be surprised for another shock result in this race given the likely conditions
It’s good to see 4 places offered here by many – something that would have been common in years past. Also worth noting that Hills pay one quarter the odds on that rather than others who pay one fifth
SELECTIONS : Not really a big betting event for me but the two selections I have are for bigger prices who I feel will be more ground suited that others if it stays around Good ground – Minella Academy and North Shore – each way with firms who offer 4 places.
If the rain does come in hard and the ground does become soft then earlier form it will change things and I’d be veering more towards Selma De Vary after all the promise she showed ion her debut
******
2.00 William Hill County Handicap Hurdle
I had a fancy for this race but he didn’t make the cut and now I find it a bit too too hard. Dan Skelton’s runners are always worth a second look and it’s notable he has pitched Sinnatra in deep here for a novice hurdler. Don’t be misled that Harry Skelton rides him and not the other stable runner Tellherthename as that one has Kielan Woods as a retained rider.
The latter could be well handicapped on his best form and this is his first run for the Skelton stable. He didn’t give the impression he liked the track on his only Festival performance though which just puts me off him.
Selection is SECRET SQUIRREL who ran very well after a long break behind Alexei (who ran a great race in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday). He doesn’t have course experience but he has threatened to win a big handicap in the past. Good to soft conditions are probably ideal for this flashy chestnut who would probably easily win the beauty contest if there was one today
*****
2.40 Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase
Dinoblue is the highest rated runner here at 159 and won this race easily last year.
The previous year she was beaten when Limerick Lace pressed on early to utilise here proven stamina (and exploit the possible weakness of Dinoblue)
That’s essentially what will be needed here to beat the favourite but who will press on early to make this a stamina test?
Panic Attack is in terrific form this season – it’s very rare to see a mare reaching here peak at the age of 10 but she has done it in spades. She hasn’t been running from the front though and I would imagine Harry Skelton would like some help to make use of her stamina.
Telepathique does like to race up front and may help but the obvious pace setter who needs to press on is Dinoblue’s stablemate, Spindleberry. Will the stable be happy using her as a spoiler for the favourite though? It is a debatable point for me even though the two are in different ownership. I do hope Paul Townend is allowed to press on as this will make for a better race.
Diva Luna looked like chasing was made for her when she moved up from hurdles at the start of the season. This is quite a jump in class though – she may be up to it – but it’s nearly 3 months since here last run after she met a setback. That has to be against here
Conclusion; It’s not a betting medium for me but Dinoblue is the likeliest winner…but if Spindleberry does make this a good gallop I think it may suit Panic Attack most and she could outstay the favourite
*****
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle
Any rain that gets into ground may turn this race into the war of attrition it can often be.
Doctor Steinberg is 7lb or more higher rated than anything else in this field but he is a free going sort and there might be some concern he’ll last home if it turns into a slog.
Thedeviluno showed improved form when stepped up to this trip at Doncaster and is a valid contender. He was given a patient ride there and we can expect similar here with him creeping into contention before the final uphill charge. (worth bearing in mind that so far this week we haven’t seen many winners who have come from the back of the field as I expect him to be ridden – but that could change if rain softens the ground)
If the ground stays decent I have to give a big shout to the favourite’s stablemate Hipop De Loire. He doesn’t have much experience over hurdles but he is a listed class flat perfomer who has run well in the last two Ebor Handicaps on the flat. Harry Cobden is a good booking for him and I can see him travelling very well in this race as long as the ground doesn’t get too soft.
If the rain does get in then I’m looking for something who will want every yard of this 3 mile trip…and a bit more. Henry De Bromhead has won this before with Minella Indo and his Kings Bucks looks for all the world like he needs 3 miles to me. I’m expecting to see a good bit of improvement on what we’ve seen so far
Two bigger priced selections here to cover all ground possibilities:
Hipop De Loire (wont want excessive rain) and Kings Bucks (who won’t mind any softening in the ground). The latter was available around 20/1 yesterday but can see he has been backed and a max of 16/1 currently
*******
4.00 Gold Cup
The centrepiece event of the meeting is a tricky one to decipher with only 4 pounds covering the marks of the top 6 contenders.
Last year’s impressive winner Inotherwayurthinkin has the highest mark of 170 but his form this year has been underwhelming to put it mildly. He would be the one to beat if reproducing form from 12 months ago but you need to have a lot of faith in connections reports that he is coming back to his best.
Disputing favouritism are The Jukebox Man, Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie – the 1st 2nd and 4th in the King George Chase at Kempton where only half a length separated them in the race of the season.
That is the complete opposite of this track but all of them have performed well here in the past.
The Jukebox Man may well be the most popular winner with Harry Redknapp owning him. He looked likely to win the Albert Bartlett here 2 years ago until the final hill just caught him out close home. That might be a concern here too for this exuberant traveller but he is older and stronger which may help.
Jango Baie and Gaelic Warrior are both past winners of the 2 mile Arkle Chase. They both won that by stamina but this is more than a mile further. They both look like stayers but remain unproven. Some horses who have been placed in the Arkle have won this race before but it is actually 1979 when Alverton was the last horse to complete this double.
Jango Baie looked to love the hill when he won the Arkle here last year and if he does stay he’ll be dangerous to all if bang there on the home turn. Gaelic Warrior has often looked like he preferred a right handed track (should have been in his element at Kempton) but his win over 3 miles at Aintree last year goes quite some way to give encouragement that he won’t be so inconveniended on a left hand track nowadays (Grey Dawning outstayed by him there)
Grey Dawning has winning form at this course over shorter. I’m not totally convinced that this is his track – flatter tracks like Haydock and Aintree may suit better. His trainer Dan Skelton seems very upbeat that he has never been better
Then we have the horse with no stamina problems who will benefit most from any rain that gets into the ground – Haiti Couleurs. He reminds me very much of 2018 winner Native River in his running style (and also 2015 winner Coneygree). As they did, he is likely to pressing for home from some way out and his bold jumping will try to put the rest to the sword.
The ground was on the soft side when Native River won and that’s what Haiti Couleurs needs to win this. When Native River tried the same tactics on decent ground he hasn’t able to put the same pressure on the rest and he was outspeeded.
Therefore it’s the ground that affects my choice here.
Selection – well this is a tough one as the weather could be crucial!
If it’s soft I expect Haiti Couleurs to go very close
If the rain doesn’t get in so much I think the King George form will come out best – but find it very hard to come down on the side of The Jukebox Man, Gaelic Warrior or Jango Baie
This may seem like sitting on the fence a bit but there are some fine margins here and it may come down to who gets the run of the race and doesn’t make mistakes
******
4.40 Princess Royal Challenge Cup Hunters Chase
As mentioned in previous years I don’t follow the point to point scene to the degree that’s needed to have much a view here. Wonderwall won it last year and renews rivalry with the next 5 who followed him home (Its On the Line, Willitgoahead, Music Drive, Shearer and Carnfunnock).
New to this sphere are previously very useful chasers Chemical Energy, Panda Boy and Stattler (Patrick Mullins renews the ride on the horse that won the 2022 National Hunt Chase here)
Rather than give a selection I’d rather defer to someone who follows the PTP scene far more and the best man for that on X is usually @DarranPearce
******
5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
The final ‘getting out race’ is always very competitive
Gordon Elliott is always keen to win this race as it’s named after the trainer he spent his early days with. He hasn’t had a winner at this meeting yet and last year he left it to this race to get off the mark. We have to respect his runners – I feel that Wendrock could be the one that has been kept fresh for it most.
Willie Mullins often fields something that’s better than its mark here (Galopin Des Champs won it once before his Gold Cup winning exploits). Kel Histoire, Roc Dino and Jump Allen all haven’t been missed at single figure odds with that in mind.
Act of Authority ran a great race to be second in this (Lewis Saunders rides again) off only a 1lb lower mark. That augurs well although his form this season doesn’t suggest he has progressed. Cheekpieces are added first time here though – it could bring out some improvement?
At bigger odds though, I’m siding with Andashan at around 20/1. He has no prioer course form but is an improving type. I liked the way he buckled down to win at Newbury last time where he gave the impression that a stiffer course and strong gallop would eke out more progress – he’ll get that here. Prior to that he ran into Kabral Du Mathan in a handicap – hindsight shows he was up against the impossible there – and that one’s performance in the Stayers Hurdle today may emphasis that even more.
Trainer’s son Freddie Gordon can’t keep the regular ride this time as he has been claimed for East India Express (he is contracted to the Hendeson team). The booking of Dylan Johnston instead is hardly a downgrade though – Dylan is stable jockey to the Sam Thomas team and would be arguably the most successful jockey riding in this field.
Recommendation
Hopefully there is something in the bank by this race and it’s not about chasing losses
1pt ew Andashan (hopefully using a firm that offers 6 places and taking something close to 20/1)
That completes my annual ‘labour of love’ on previewing the Cheltenham Festival
I hope it’s been an enjoyable read for those following this week and there has been some profit at the end of it all!
Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Tuesday and Wednesday thoughts
For any annual followers of my Cheltenham musings – welcome back!
As per usual, I’ll try to work through all races again highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll always have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself (if I can get on which is sometimes easier said than done with some firms). Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.
I’ve had to be less active on my social media accounts this winter (Winter Olympics has kept my compiling head too busy earlier this year) and there are very few early picks put up this year. It would be very hard to ever come close to matching last year’s ante post 100/1 winner in any case! I will try to put up any extra thoughts throughout the meeting on X or Blue Sky (account details at bottom of this post). (Vanillier in Wednesday’s Cross Country Chase and Bold Endeavour in Thursday’s Pertemps being the only two I’ve put up in advance on X recently – price of 25/1 now well gone on the latter)
I’m really pleased to see that Bryan Gault is still doing his excellent www.gaultstats.com site again this year. Once again I can thoroughly recommend for anyone looking to explore the statistical angles on Festival races. I’ve done pretty well following pointers from these in the past. There is little point for me going into them too deeply myself when they have been done so well by Bryan. Please don’t forget to donate though if you find this site useful.
Whilst stats are always in my thoughts, I don’t rely on them solely though. I do mix them in with what I’ve seen with my own eyes on previous form and from nearly 50 years of watching the Festival.
Note that there has been some tinkering with race schedules again this year. Some races have moved to different time slots and indeed different days from past meetings.
Centrepiece races remain at their new 4pm slot each day – an initiative that was brought in last year
Ground is looking fairly certain to start as Good to Soft at this stage. The lead up has been relatively dry and any Soft patches are likely to disappear. If the course continues to dry out we can expect some watering to try and maintain it at this kind of level. A course walk by Nicky Henderson on Sunday seemed to reveal it was more Good than Soft in many areas.
I will always be on the lookout for enhanced place terms throughout the 4 days which can add notable value to any bets. If there are regularly 3 places offered but firms offer 4 this can be a productive edge. It was disappointing to see so many big handicaps were missing 6 places offered last year though – something that had been common pre 2025. The standard terms for handicaps of 16 runners would be ¼ odds 1234. Getting 1/5th odds for 6 places can be quite an improvement on that for the right type of selection and I hope to see it again. However, the more standard variation of 1/5th odds for 5 places became more common last year and I’m not holding my breath. Whilst that might look good the difference between one quarter and one fifth of win odds doesn’t often make that much change in terms of value.
In the past couple of years I’ve tried to keep a track on how certain big trainers profit/loss records have looked over the handicaps. Each way is calculated on assumption that 6 places are paid in handicaps – which was very common until last year. There may be the odd 6th place here where they may not be paid out though
Over the past 6 years some prominent results are here. Main things to note would be the P/L sucess of Dan Skelton in handicaps (books are aware of this though and its factored into prices regularly); the consistent profit made by backing Nicky Henderson horses in hurdles handicaps; the lack of sucess backing Willie Mullins horses blind in hcaps (particularly chases)
For last year 2025 I also added Gavin Cromwell who is becoming more and more of one to watch at this meeting. Henry De Bromhead’s handicap runners are notable here. He didnt have any winners from his 7 handicap runners but 6 of them were placed
Another things that is different this year – and which the course kept quiet until the Sunday before – appeared recently.
This could be quite significant to some hurdle results. A longer run in with an uphill finish may make stamina more of an asset for one. The hurdle seems to have been moved to avoid a patch of false ground
I’m covering the first two days here where all declarations are now out
One thing to note immediately here is that the meeting start a little bit earlier in the year than usual on March 10th. This may be significant as it is the birthday of leading owner JP McManus and I wonder if some running plans have been altered to fit in with that. If you are reading JP – Happy 75th Birthday …..and please don’t forget to message to let me know who you are backing 😉
1.20 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle.
12 runners have been declared to face the Cheltenham roar in the traditional opener. It’s a strong looking field that has a more competitive look than a few recent renewals.
My thoughts on the main contenders in current market order.
OLD PARK STAR. Has been ante post favourite for a while. He wasn’t an obvious type for the race at the beginning of the season but marked himself down as a serious contender with an authoritative here (course form box ticked) before Christmas. He then impressed again when leading all the way and with some pinpoint jumping at Haydock. He deserves to be favourite but it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank when being taken on for the lead here
MIGHTY PARK. The hype contender this year from the Willie Mullins camp. His race target wasn’t clear until a few days ago when his price fell dramatically. His price is based on rumours that he is the next big star to come from the Mullins arsenal. You would have to be a firm follower of that hype to be backing him though at around 7/2. He has only won one weak hurdle race where he wasn’t challenged at all. He could be ‘the second coming’ but he has to prove his jumping here with top flight company around him in a pressure cooker atmosphere. I’d want much bigger odds to be at all interested
TALK THE TALK. Again he wasn’t a definite contender for this until confirmed at the final declarations despite his trainer being adamant this was the race he was aiming for. Could well have won both of the strongest trial races for this at Leopardstown but for an awkward fall over Christmas. Was given a bit of a careful ride to help his jumping issues last time out and did really well to make up ground and win from a slow pace. His jumping would remain a potential Achilles heel but that last run should have helped
EL CAIROS. An eyecatcher when 5th in last years Festival Bumper when he looked like he should have gone close to winning but for his amateur rider looking like he was doing his best to stay on board at the speed he was going. Subsequently sold for a big sum and he looked sure to win impressively first time out this year but for another final hurdle blip. Won a minor race easily since but again nearly messed it up at the final hurdle. His hurdling generally has looked slick but it’s just when quickening up and jumping that a weakness has been seen. Has recorded 38mph when in full charge this season – something beyond the others so far.
MYDADDYPADDY. Was all the rage for this before his bubble was blown by Idaho Sun at Aintree. That was the first time he had come off the bridle and he found a battle hardened rival too much (Idaho Sun sadly injured and not able to renew rivalry). It was still a good run and he isn’t out of this but his official mark is 12 lb less than Old Park Star’s
LEADER D’ALLIER. Mullins has another contender here with stable jockey Paul Townend on board (Townend can’t ride Mighty Park who has a retained jockey). His defeat by Ballyfad earlier this season gives him something to find with Talk the Talk though
SOBER GLORY. Has looked a really good horse in winning 7 of his 8 races. A disappointing defeat – with no real explanation behind it – at Sandown being his only blot. He likes to run from the front and doesn’t stop. I do worry a little however when I see all his form is at Newbury and Chepstow and hasn’t raced here. Some will point to the fact his last winning time at Newbury was 4 seconds quicker than Tutti Quanti’s win in the prestigious Tote Gold Trophy that day. We must bear in mind though that the weather was filthy that day and by the time the other race was run there had been a lot of rain at the track – conditions were probably not like-for-like. Soft ground does seem to be his preference and he’s not likley to get it here
BARON NOIR. Maybe a bit of an outsider at around 33/1 but he deserves mentioning. The novice hurdle he was 2nd in at Warwick was a very strong race in my opinion. He raced freely there and has done in other races but his talent has got him through. The stronger pace here should get him settled and we can see what he is made of. He was good enough to beat El Cairos in the big Punchestown bumper last season so we know the engine is there. I don’t think his mark of 130 really reflects his talent and there could well be a 140+ horse in there.
The other four runners – EACHTOTHEIROWN, KOKTAIL BRUT, SAGEBOROUGH and TOO BOSSY FOR US are all useful in their own right – but it would be a surprise for me to see any of them winning
CONCLUSION.
The likely pace of this race is the overriding factor for me. I think we can expect Old Park Star, Mighty Park and Sober Glory all wanting to go a good clip. They have all had uninterrupted leads before and may be in new territory here. If there are any flaws in Mighty Park’s hurdling the other two will soon exploit it. This pace should really suit something that can sit off it and challenge them late. I do favour Talk The Talk and El Cairos to do that ( though I am a little nervous about their hurdling once speed is increasing downhill). I have marginal preference for Talk the Talk as suspect he has more stamina than El Cairos when we are now faced with a longer uphill drag from the last (would favour the latter on a flatter track)
I also think Baron Noir won’t be far off them with a couple to jump and could be a potential surprise packet. A couple of firms who offer 4 places each way would be useful in that regard.
My selection therefore is Talk the Talk but for betting I’d suggest backing him in a different way
The two horses who are tied in with his form most both run for Gordon Elliott in Wednesdays Turners Hurdle. Skylight Hustle and Ballyfad will both surely shorten if Talk the Talk wins or goes close. This is therefore taking advantage of related options (you can’t back the same horse to win two races without getting a special reduced price – but you can back two related horse and get some value)
I also think that Baron Noir’s run gives a related option with Bossman Jack in the same race on Wednesday as they both come from the same Warwick race
The recommendations are
1pt ew double Talk The Talk + Skylight Hustle (1.20 Wednesday)
1pt ew double Talk the Talk + Ballyfad (1.20 Wednesday)
0.25 pt ew double Baron Noir + Bossman Jack (1.20 Wednesday)
(the last bet ideally with firms who offer 4 places each on this race)
*****
2.00 Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy
This race has been billed as a face-off between Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba for a long while and they have both made it here.
It didn’t always look likely for the former who won the Supreme last year. He’s had an interrupted preparation but connections sound bullish again now and he has moved into favouristism.
Lulamba was 2nd in last season’s Triumph Hurdle and has flourished as a chaser this season.
Kopek Des Bordes did look a serious horse over hurdles last year but missing his intended prep race puts me off having any strong view here.
His stablemate Kargese won at the Festival last year and did have her prep race at Leopardstown. That was a really strongly run event in deep ground though which she’ll be doing well to have not been left with a mark from.
I’m not sure Mambonumberfive will be suited by this course as he is such a big horse and has been kept to flat tracks so far. Steel Ally is a likely pace angle for this race but I’m also mindful that he is now 8 years old and has been kept away from this track so far in his career
I would have put up Jax Junior as the each way pick at a big price if there were 3 places available but not it’s down to 7 runners that option has gone. He has impressed me a lot in his last two wins but he will need to step up again to reach the level of the two favourites. He was running well in the Albert Bartlett here last year until stamina became a factor (no concern here over a much shorter trip).He’d be the one I’d be looking for in any markets offered without the two favourites
Selection; If pushed I’d veer towards the proven form of Lulamba this season. For betting I’d just be looking to find Jax Junior in a market without the two favs though
*****
2.40 McCoy Contractors Juvenile Hcap Hurdle
This did used to be the last race on the opening day but now moved forward.
There are lots of potential plots here and it’s unlikely I’ll be betting at current prices.
My old system of finding the best flat horse used to work well until French breds started to muddy the waters. There is no definitive stand out flat performer here but top weight Barbizon had the highest rating of 94 on the level (and at least gets 5lb claimed off his back here). Saratoga, Dignam, Winston Junior, Glen to Glen, Ammes and Munsif (current reserve…he may be out of race by Monday afternoon if nothing drops out) were all close behind him on flat ratings.
Of these Saratoga and Munsif were 2nd and 3rd in a recent Naas race that has always been a good pointer for this. (Munsif I suspect may well show improvement on the better ground here and with the ‘notoriety’ of his stable’s plots….I won’t say any more on that!)
Joseph O’Brien trained the winner last year and his Glen to Glen won the same prep race so must be a factor. I’d also then have to bring in Ole Ole who isn’t far behind him on form and comes from the stable that produced a 50/1 second last year.
Ammes, from the James Owen stable, has a very similar look to last season’s 3rd from the same stable. The booking of Sean Bowen is notable there
If you fancy him or Winston Junior (another I couldn’t put anyone off), note it also ties in with Minella Study’s chances in Fridays Triumph Hurdle. It’s worth considering some related doubles there as I mentioned for the first race with that in mind
It’s a difficult race. If pushed for a selection I might be veering towards Winston Junior or Ammes as I think the Irish runners haven’t been given the best of it by the UK handicapper
******
3.20 Trustmarque Ultima Hcap Chase
This race is an old favourite of mine as the stats tended to point me in the way of horses carrying less than 11 stones. That would take out the top 13 in the field for me right away but it has to be said that the skew towards lower weights it quite as dramatic as it once was.
At the top of the weights we do have some classy performers. I think Handstands could be the best but his only run at the course was a disappointing one and I have yet to be convinced this track will suit him
Top weight Iroko is the current favourite for the Grand National so I wonder if this is just a prep race and they will be leaving something to work on with Aintree in mind.
The Green and Gold colours of JP will also be worn by current favourite Jagwar. He is a big horse who will have no issues carrying 11st 9lbs and has winning course form. The downsides would be his low price of around 7/2 and the fact that his regular jockey is on Iroko (can understand why with Grand National in mind)
Myretown won this race impressively last year when he would have comfortable suited the low weight stats carrying just 10st 3lbs. His mark is 15 pounds higher now but he still gets in under 11 stones (showing that this is a better quality race). His old stablemate Corach rambler won back-to-back renewals which will make him popular. His failure to complte in two of his three races thios season is the undoubted negative,
I put up The Short Go each way in this race last year as he looked to be well suited to the course and he paid out place money. He would have been the main pick for me again until the UK handicapper dealt him a fair blow by putting him 6 lbs higher than last year. He has also had a wind op since his last run – we just don’t know if that will be a positive or negative though until he runs.
My main selection sits near the bottom of the handicap as I often like in this race.
Knight of Allen is actually having to carry 4lb more than he should be but for me he arguably achieved more than the mark of 131 he carries here when 4th against much higher rated rivals on his last venture at this course. He was running on well at the finish then and giving 5 pounds to 137 rated Califet En Vol who finished 5 lengths in front of him (and that one has since won a competitive Kempton handicap). The extra distance here ought to suit him and it’s noteworthy that the Williams family have won this race in the past with another 6 year old (Coo Star Sivola)
I’ve found Jane Williams quite a frustrating trainer to follow in the past but the addition of Ciaran Gethings as stable jockey this season has been a huge factor in seeing much better results. Ciaran should be riding at this lowest weight here. He ran well enough at Newbury over 3 mils last time but I doubt that heavy ground there was ideal (his brother Galahad Quest performed best on decent ground)
CONCLUSION
I wouldn’t put anyone off The Short Go each way with firms who offer 6 or 7 places but it would be more with the place side in mind (note from stats earlier that his trainer Henry De Bromhead had nearly every one of his horses placed here in handicaps last year)
Recommendation
The main bet though for me is 1pt ew KNIGHT OF ALLEN (25/1 available with Skybet whoi pay 7 places – would still happily take 22/1 with 6 places elsewhere)
*****
4.00 Unibet Champion Hurdle
The centrepiece event was a very successful one for me last year with Golden Ace backed ante post at 100/1.
She had luck on her side when State Man fell at the last but she also did well to avoid his fall and that of Constitution Hill earlier which slightly took her out of position.
She again got lauded as ‘lucky’ when she won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle earlier this season when The New Lion fell. To my eyes she may well have won that encounter anyway as The New Lion was going no better.
She beat Brighterdayshead in the Champion Hurdle last year and in the Mares Novice Hurdle the season. Supposedly the slow pace was against Elliott’s mare that time but it won’t have suited the Ace that much either. My inclination is more that this course isn’t ideal for Brighterdaysahead
In short I think Golden Ace remains a mare who has been underestimated throughout her career – even by the official handicapper who gives her a mark of 152….I would have her more like 156 or 157.
I think she will go close again but admit to be being very worried about the presence of Lossiemouth in this year’s race. The Mullins star mare has avoided this race for 2 years to plunder the Mares Hurdle instead and she has a 4/4 record at Cheltenham. Connections have always seemed more enthused about getting an obvious win than a probable win so that fact she runs here suggest they are happy. A longer trip may be her optimum but with the errant stablemate Anzadam in the field there is always the chance of pace being injected into this race. Cheekpieces have been applied this time to help her with this bigger test of speed. A slight concern may be if the ground continues to dry. She was badly tapped for toe at Kempton last season and good ground may not be ideal for her.
Patrick Mullins couldn’t control that one earlier this season at Leopardstown and we could see similar here. The addition of Tutti Quanti into the race would also seem to aid this race not being run at a crawl.
Both Tutti Quanti and Alexei are interesting outsiders who have elevated themselves to this level after impressive handicap wins earlier this season. I would have a small concern about their last runs being in bad ground in February though (particularly in the case of the latter who may have had an unnecessarily hard race at Wincanton)
CONCLUSION
I can’t not support Golden Ace each way at 9/1 or 10/1 as think she will be in the frame at least. She has done me proud here for the last two season and owes me nothing. I do fear Lossiemouth though so if a market ‘without Lossiemouth’ appears I’d become more interested. I do prefer Golden Ace to The New Lion and Brighterdayahead who are lower prices.
Recommendation
1pt ew Golden Ace (taking 9/1 or better if available)
******
4.40 Sun Racing Plate Hcap Chase
Not a handicap that excites me too much
Both Madara (looks a likely Dan Skelton targeted runner) and McLaurey (potential Emmet Mullins plot) are just priced too much in expectation of their runs at around 4/1 to interest me.
At a better price, Downmexicoway is unexposed at this trip and the De Bromhead stable did very well with placings in handicaps at this meeting last year (see my earlier table). I’m not sure he is hiding too much from a mark of 145 but he was given an easy time last time out when not getting involved in the pace war of the Irish Arkle principals
At bigger odds I’d just thrown in O’Moore Park at around 16/1 as better value. His last run wasn’t anything to write home about but he’s only a pound higher than when placed at 66/1 in the novices handicap last year. Decent ground and this course seem to bring out the best in him. Unlikely I’ll be betting though in this event.
Selections if pushed – Downmexicoway and O’Moore Park
******
5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap
This is the second year of this race being run as a handicap. Eveything went to plan when Haiti Coleurs dominated the race last year. This year there is no standout contender for me though. I had one fancy who declined to take join the field at the final stage
Winning connections from last year field Newton Tornado this time. But whilst Haiti won well on the course during his preps, Newton Tornado fell. He doesn’t give me the same feeling as an out and out galloper whose jumping will put the rest to the sword. In his defence, we must note that trainer Rebecca Curtis has a good record in handicaps from quite a small sample over the year
Backersackme is another likely plot horse. The combination of Emmet Mullins training and Paul Byrne owning will often have bookies running for cover and his price reflects that.
Wade Out is also well found in the market but he is a horse who really makes life hard for his jockey. Don’t be surprised to see him under hard driving from a long way out and then just plugging on through beaten horses. If you fancy his chances betting on the Exchange in running may give you a much bigger price.
Iceberg Theory (trainer knows how to lay one out for handicap here) and One Big Bang (3rd over a trip that was far too inadequate for him last time but may want softer ground) would be of more interest to me but I don’t feel strongly enough about either to get involved.
There are a lot of stamina questions to be answered in this race – and quite a few who like to front run. It should come down to who has the best stamina reserves in the final half mile
Selection if pushed would be Iceberg Theory
******************************
******
That’s Day 1 thoughts completed now onto Wednesday’s musings for Day 2…………
Hopefully there is some profit in the bank by now.
Note that as I write these declarations have only just come out. Markets may take some time to be updated and so revised odds may not be widespread until later on Monday afternoon
1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle
It’s 2017 since anything with a double figure price won this (Willoughby Court) and we have to go back to First Lieutenant in 2011 to find a winner who had a handicap mark of less than 146 winning.
That stat alone quickly whittles this down to three runners; Ballyfad (149), Skylight Hustle (148) and King Rasko Grey (148).
The main UK hope, No Drama This End comes in with a mark of 144. He might well be better than that but his most impressive performances have come of softer ground that what he may face here.
As mentioned already for the opening race on day 1, I’ve already given away my thoughts a little here in the expectation that Talk The Talk runs well there.
Ballyfad was just touched off by that horse last time and had King Rasko Grey just behind him.
Skylight Hustle was vying for the lead with Talk The Talk when that one fell in his previous race. There may not have been much between them.
It was always likely to be a tough choice to make for stable jockey Jack Kennedy here. Both Elliott horses have yet to perform at this trip over hurdles but both were ready winners of Point to Points over 3 miles to give encouragement that the extra distance will be in their favour. (Sir Gerhard a recent winner of this race came in with the same profile). He picked Ballyfad – but as that is owned by the stable’s main patron it could have some bearing. There may not be that much between them
As also noted from day one musings, if Baron Noir runs well it’s a pointer for Bossman Jack. He looked a work in progress on his hurdles debut at Warwick and has impressed in 2 wins since. Those wins aren’t at the level of this race and his handicap rating of 134 is somewhat shy of what would be required to win this. I am surprised that Dan Skelton hasn’t gone down the handicap route with that mark so his entry here is evident of the regard he is held in and the step up in trip should see more improvement.
Selections
Already covered in Race 1 synopsis from Day 1 – and hopefully there is money running onto Ballyfad, Skylight Hustle and/or Bossman Jack after that
******
2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
Possibly my biggest ante post interest here comes in the form of Wendigo who really caught my eye with his 3rd place at Kempton over Christmas. I have been backing this one at far bigger prices than what is available now but still think he is the most solid option.
It was fairly clear in that race that the track was too quick for him and he was on the backfoot from some way out but he stuck to it in such a way that I felt sure he would turn the form around with the winner (Kitzbuhel) back at this meeting. His run was very reminiscent of subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River’s effort back in 2015. There have been several beaten horses in that Feltham Chase that have come on to win this race (Bobs Worth immediately springing to mind)
Wendigo’s run in last season Albert Bartlett Hurdle also gives confidence that this track suits him. He was going very well there and looking likely to be a big contender until nearly taken out of the race by The Big Westerner before the home turn. He wouldn’t have won but I feel sure he would have been up with her for second if not for that incident. The Big Westerner would be a threat again but with her need for soft ground unlikely to be fulfilled her chance may diminish
At the time I was backing, Final Demand was a short priced favourite for this race. He has since disappointed in his prep race when beaten by Kaid d’Authie and Western Fold and the race does have more of an open look now. Final Demand may well bounce back from that but he does have something to prove at this course. His 3rd place in the Turners Hurdle last year was arguably his weakest hurdles performance and might indicate the track doesn’t suit him. Kaid d’Authie was also pulled up on his only start here so also has a course question to answer.
Western Fold was second in this race. He doesn’t have any experience on this course so that negative factor can’t be applied. He may improve for the better ground so rates a threat though whether he is as strong a stayer as my selection is debatable. He does hold another Irish challenger Oscars Brother on earlier form (that one may prefer softer ground)
Romeo Coolio was considered an unlikely contender for this race until very recently but once confirmed he became favourite. He has yet to race over this trip and he may well be suited by it in time but I can’t be enthused about his chances this time. He had a very hard race last time out in deep ground. That was his 4th race this season and the chances of it leaving a mark must be high. There is a strong sense that his presence here is more about the owner wanting a runner than the trainer wanting to run.
Recommendation
1.5 pts ew WENDIGO (hopefully there will be some firms offering 4 places on this – there should be with the number of runners left in the race)
*****
2.40 BetMGM Cup Hcap Hurdle
Firstly there is a bit of schadenfrude here that the arch plotter Charles Byrnes’s had had his second fancied handicap runner appear as a reserve. I Started A Joke – like Munsif – on Tuesday needs something to drop out to get a run. I could feel sorry for other connections but less so for this one!
It’s not a race that appeals to me much for betting at the moment and I’d want the 6 places to be offered at least for any each ways bets.
I’m naturally drawn to two stables from P/L stats
Nicky Henderson has done very well here in tha past and fields Lucky Place, Jingko Blue and Iberico Lord. Lucky Place has done well in this race before but he hasn’t looked the same horse since an unsuccessful chasing spell. Jingko Blue seems to be fancied by the stable if preview night chat can be believed but I’m struggling to warm to his chances based on his previous Festival effort. Iberico Lord may be the strongest of his runners having come back to form last time out and having winning form in the past on this course (albeit over a shorter trip)
Henry De Bromhead’s handicap record from last year has already been mentioned and he also fields three. Ballyadam was 3rd last year but he is now 11 years old and must be vulnerable off a high weight to younger improvers. Beckett Rock was also engaged in handicap chases at this meeting off a lower mark but it’s significant he turns up here where he was 6th last year. Stable jockey, Darragh O’Keeffe has picked Forty Coats however. His form this season isn’t enticing but it is notable that cheekpieces are added for the first time here. His stand out piece of form was his 4th in the Turners Novice Hurdle here last year so the course form box is ticked. Last year’s winner Jimmy Du Seuil also had his previous best performance in that race
Recommendations
0.5 pts ew each FORTY COATS and BECKETT ROCK (hopefully at around 33/1 with a minimum of 6 places being taken)
****
3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
Not a race I normally have a view on but I did post this a couple of weeks back on X
Last year Vanillier got in a lovely position early one and then Sean Flanagan took his hands off the wheel to look around behind him. He nearly rain off the track by doing that and totally lost his position. I hope and expect there will be full control at the wheel this year. He is 11 now but has shown the ability is still there at Punchestown this season and is a previous Festival winner. There is a caveat that if the ground dries out a lot it may not be ideal. At the time of putting this out 1/4 odds 1234 were still available. With only 14 declared it’s more likely to see 1/5th odds for 4 places now when prices are revised
Recommendation
1pt ew VANILLIER (look for a minimum of 8/1 with 4 places offered)
*****
4.00 Bet MGM Queen Mother Champions Chase
This race lost some competitivity when last year’s winner Marine Nationale was ruled out last week. It should leave the race at the mercy of Majborough who would surely have won last year’s Arkle Trophy but for a massive blunder 2 fences out. He still recovered enough to be involved in the finish.
He looked really good last time out and I feel his biggest danger again would be the fences. I think he’ll win with a clear round.
I couldn’t imagine L’Eau Du Sud not being placed in that Arkle but he ended up 4th after taking the race to Majborough. He would appear the main danger but I’d be worried again he might make himself vulnerable if being ridden to beat the favourite
Il Etait Temps has always shown his best form away from this track. On ratings he would be the main threat but he is coming here off a very bad fall on his last run which may have some effect
Quilixios may have been second last year but for falling but he hasn’t run since then. Captain Guinness is a past winner but is now 11 years old and his best days appear to be behind him
There are two at big prices I like to run well. Saint Segal has thrived this year under Ciaran Gethings and has a high cruising speed that could be suited by following Majborough’s pace. Brookie may be total outsider of the field but he badly needs good ground (it was far worse than good to soft last time he ran). I can see him being ridden to pick up some pieces and claim some place prize money here if ground continues to dry out
SUGGESTIONS: As I expect Majborough to win but see his price being too unattractive I suggest looking for markets appearing for ‘betting without Majborough’ here and where 1/5th odds 123 are offered
No odds will be out on those yet but I’ll be looking for both Saint Segal and Brookie each way in those markets
******
4.40 Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Hcap Chase
Nicky Henderson hasn’t aimed one for the race named after his father this year so that angle can’t be used.
Jazzy Matty won the race last year (his second Festival win) and comes back to defend his title off an 8lb higher mark. It’s his first run after a wind operation though so I’m not sure if everything has gone to plan with his preparations.
Ben Pauling has been very bullish about the talents of Vanderpoel in the run up to this but I would have liked to see some course form.
This isn’t a race I have a big view in but I’ve followed Release the Beast for a while as he has looked a work in progress for Paul Nolan – a trainer who knows how to win handicaps here. He hasn’t set foot beyond the Irish Sea in his career yet but I notice both a hood and a tongue tie are now added. I would have preferred the UK handicapper to have been a bit more lenient – but if he had he probbaly wouldnt have got in at the foor of the handicap here.
I would not be at all surprised to see him finally realise the potential he has shown a few times in his career to date
Selection; Release the Beast
*****
5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
An immediate pass for me for betting. Very little collateral form and all of these will be facing a new test in a 22 runner field run at a solid pace.
A few notes.
Bass Hunter has looked very talented in two wins but if he runs from the front as he did at Ascot he will do well to get home unless he is absolutely top drawer.
Quiryn (one of 4 from the Mullins stable) was bred to run on the flat but an aversion to starting stalls curtailed that plan. He certainly looked talented but quirky with it on his only run to date. The engine may be there but the temperament to deal with this occasion is a question mark
Mets Ta Ceinture was a big money buy for Dan Skelton and makes her UK debut here. She has strong French bumper form and as a 4 yo filly gets lots of weight from the others. It’s notable that dan has pitched her in so deep so quickly.
Selection if pushed – Mets Ta Ceinture
Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,
Paul
(You’ll find me on X as @Senor_Moodoir, on Blue Sky @senormoodoir.bsky.social)
Ground appears to be proper Good to Soft so far on Day 3 – there should be no excuses from anyone. I’m assuming we’ll have similar tomorrow in this analysis below
This feels like a Triumph Hurdle of yesteryear with 18 runners and some firms offering 4 places!
Before Tuesday’s 4yo handicap hurdle was added to this meeting in it often had big fields – and produced shock results. Class has generally come to the fore since.
Willie Mullins fields a staggering 11 runners – 3 of which have yet to face a hurdle in public.
I would hope having so many big outsiders doesn’t cause traffic problems but I think there will be a strong pace here which should soon sort out the wheat from the chaff.
I don’t think the form of the Irish runners here is quite as strong as the home side and this largely revolves around the two at the front of the market.
East India Dock (the younger brother of Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle second Burdett Road) was a decent staying type on the flat but has blossomed since going hurdling. I don’t think you will see a quicker and more efficient jumper in this field and he can gain lengths on his rivals in a quickly run race. He’s made the running himself thus far but the addition of stablemate Opec, who looks sure to take them along at a good clip, looks a very good move.
This will test the jumping of main rival Lulamba, who looks more of a chasing type going forward – albeit a very useful one.
East India Dock’s course form and his quick hurdling sways it for me and I think Lulamba will need to be out of the very top drawer to beat him whilst the ground is on the better side here.
It would be great to see the Gredley family finally rewarded with a Cheltenham winner here after all the effort they have been putting into National Hunt racing in the past couple of years. Previously, the family were very flat racing orientated (more seasoned followers will remember User Friendly winning the Oaks and the Arc de Triomphe)
I have had a little ante post interest on Mondo Man earlier this year before he ran his first hurdling race. He was a top class horse on the flat but is held by Lulamba on Ascot running.
He has spoilt his chances in both races by pulling too hard – he was quirky on the flat as well.
His price of around 33/1 does reflect his chance on hurdling form so far. However, the likely strong pace here, and the addition of Brian Hughes in the saddle, gives him his best chance to actually settle in a race.
If he does behave himself and Brian can switch him off, he has the class to be a factor. We’ll know soon into the race whether he has a chance or not.
Selection; Heart may be ruling head slightly here but I’m on the side of East India Dock. A general price of around 2/1 is about right whilst not offering excessive value. A more speculative punt would be Mondo Man if he can finally settle in a race
Recommendation
I can’t see East India Dock out of the first 4 here. He isn’t an each way price at 2/1 but as there is another in the 4.40 who I also can’t see out of the first 4 then an Each way double is recommended – see the 440 write up.
Also 0.5 pt win Mondo Man 33/1 or better
(don’t see the value in each way here – if he doesn’t settle I can’t see him being placed but if he does he has the talent to go close)
*****
2.00 County Handicap Hurdle
A handicap with at least 4 contenders who look to have been laid out for it.
Absurde did the ‘absurd’ by winning comfortably this from last place from a relative slow pace last year. He has plenty of class from the flat and is thoroughly capable of winning again but interesting that Paul Townend opts for Kargese instead from Team Mullins.
Kargese was 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle and is well handicapped off a mark of 141 on that form. She found disappointing little on her seasonal debut though and wouldn’t be winning this on that bare form. However, there may be a lot of improvement to come
I do think it’s a tough ask for 5 year olds like her to win this race and so that also applies to Lark In The Mornin. This one also looks to have been laid out for this race in the same way he was when easily winning on Tuesday’s card last year.
Then we have Valgrand, who represent the Dan Skelton team, who have been so good at providing the winners of this race with well-orchestrated plots in the past. He impressed with fast accurate jumping from the front earlier this season. Then he was held back in two later runs and that jumping prowess couldn’t be seen. The handicapper duly dropped him from 140 to 134 – something we have seen before in the Skelton plotting plan.
Hansard is also worth a mention off his mark of 142 given how well he ran against Champion Hurdle 1-2 Golden Ace and Burdett Road in his last run. Decent ground will suit him but I think a flatter track would be more of his metier
I can make a good case for too many in this race and no great value on any of them so it’s a No Bet race for me
*****
2.40 Mares Chase
Limerick Lace beat Dinoblue in this last year by getting first run and outstaying her on soft ground. The winner hasn’t been in the same form this year and I would expect Dinoblue to turn that form around on this occasion.
Allegorie de Vassy was behind them both last year and narrowly beaten by Dinoblue last time out. That would put her into the mix but she has run a bit below expectations now in 3 visits to this course and I don’t think it really suits here.
It’s also interesting that Keith Donoghue has chosen Brides Hill over Limerick Lace this year. Brides Hill had to be withdrawn from this race last year because of the soft ground. If she were to get her ideal Good ground she could be a proper threat to the favourite. You’d want to be checking the ground on race day here though…her chance lessens considerably if there is some soft in the ground.
*****
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (or ‘the Spud race’ as I affectionately call it)
This can be a really tough race for young novices over its longer trip. As such it is probably missing the highest grade novices who went for the shorter Turners Novices Hurdle on Wednesday. Take a look through the roll of honour in the past. You will see some later Gold Cup winners like Minella Indo and Bobs Worth. You’ll see just as many big priced winners who didn’t subsequently progress much further at all though.
If the pace is strong it can be a war of attrition that will favour the real sloggers in the race who haven’t been able to thrive in such conditions until now.
Team Mullins field six and stable jockey has plumped for Jasmin De Vaux, last years Festival Bumper winner. His hurdling career thus far has been highlighted by some quite dire jumping. He may well be the best of these on the gallops but he’ll need to really brush up his hurdling here or will be losing ground too regularly.
He’s also held by Wingmen on his last run. Gordon Elliott’s charge is unproven over this trip but most of them are to be fair here. I think his second at Leopardstown last time though is probably the best piece of form coming in.
Lucinda Russell has won this race before with the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze. She has compared Derryhassen Paddy quite favourably to that one and there was much to like about his recent Windsor win. The Russell team have already struck at this meeting with Myretown and are in good form. Their runner here is big long striding horse and I am a little worried that this course may not suit him – I thought Aintree might have been a better choice. Take note also that he was withdrawn from his prep race at Haydock as the ground was deemed not soft enough. He wouldn’t be a certain runner for me if there is no overnight easing in the ground.
Wendigo will be popular on the back of his second to The New Lion over Christmas – form that was well boosted on Wednesday. His second to Battle Born Lad earlier this season has also been well advertised since.
The Big Westerner is unbeaten and the likely favourite but is short enough for me considering her relative inexperience compared to others here
Team Mullins has won this race before with horses that weren’t the perceived first strings and I like two of his that I think will be ideally suited to the singular test of this race.
Sounds Victorius and Fishery Lane were 4th and 5th in last years Festival Bumper at big odds. Both came up the hill strongly and both look like they need a through test in my eyes. I don’t think either will have had their ideal conditions yet this season. Sounds Victorius was behind Wingman and Jasmin De Vaux at Leopardstown when he couldn’t match a change of pace from others near the home turn. He then stayed on into 5th up the hill.
Both will appreciate a well-run race here which I hope we will get with proven front runner Jax Junior in the field
Recommendations
0.5 pts ew Sounds Victorius 20/1 or better
0.5 pts ew Fishery Lane 20/1 or better
Take the 5 places with Skybet or Paddy Power if you can – otherwise 4 places is widely available elsewhere
*****
4.00 Gold Cup
The centrepiece event of the meeting sees Galopin Des Champs going for his third win. On paper it looks his easiest task so far but the price of around 4/7 reflects that. If the ground was properly good then Banbridge can be a threat but he is totally unproven over this far around this course…it’s a world away from Kempton’s 3 miles where he won the King George.
If there is more rain and emphasis is more on stamina then Inothewayurthinkin would be of each way interest. He won a handicap here last year easily despite bad jumping. His last run behind Galopin showed better jumping and nothing was staying on stronger at the finish.
If he doesn’t get outpaced it crucial stages. He will come up the hill very strongly and is the only one I can see threatening the favourite…but it does need a strongly run race with some ‘soft’ in the ground for me to see this scenario happening
Selection; Galopin Des Champs is hard to oppose but he is too short a price to recommend. If ground is good to soft or worse, Inothewayurthinkin would be a likely each way play
****
4.40 Hunters Chase
As in previous years, I just don’t follow the point to point scene enough to usuallyhave any great opinion on this race. It’s another amateur riders race where having one of the better jockeys on board would be great advantage.
However, Angels Dawn who is a previous Festival winner with the same rider on board and I would imagine has been laid out for this race. He ticks too many boxes for me to ignore
Four places are offered and as long as he gets round I can’t see him not being placed
Recommendation
Each way double time here with firms who offer 4 places on this race and the 120
2pt ew Double –
East India Dock 2/1 or better 1.20; Angels Dawn 7/2 or better here
****
5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
Gordon Elliott learn his trace under the tutelage of Martin Pipe and always has something aimed at it. Wodhooh will be popular on the back of her being unbeaten over hurdles and a course win in December that’s worked out very well. She was rewarded with an 11 pound hike to her mark for that and she was best placed to strike from the front in quite a slow race
She would be favourite here if not for the presence of French import Kopeck De Mee who has been massively touted in the run up to the Festival. His mark of 136 is very much a shot in the dark from the handicapper as his form is so hard to gauge. He has been backed though as if he is much better than what he has been given.
We’ve seen this in handicaps from the Mullins team before. They sometimes hose in but other times it hasn’t come off. To take a price of no more than 5/2 in such a competitive race you’d really want to be knowing exactly what the stable know here
The short prices on these two runners mean we should have inflated prices on the rest and with 6 places on offer from several firms, I’ll look more for some each way value.
There are three that take my eye.
Park of Kings has been progressive this season and may well have won last time out at Leopardstown if not being given too much to do. He has been kept off the course since then – probably with this race in mind and avoiding winter deep ground – and should appreciate the strong pace and uphill finish.
No Questions Asked was a very useful bumper horse this season who has improved from race to race over hurdles this year. The form of his Huntingdon second to Califet En Vol was a big leap forward and I think he has the class of a horse with more to offer off his mark of 138
Punctuation has been around a long time and was originally owned by the Queen and once fancied for the Derby! He can be quirky but he does have an engine that can be seen to some effect when the cards fall for him. He has good course form and likes a strongly run race. The Henderson record in handicap hurdles is at the forefront oy mind here and I think there is decent value in him at big odds
Recommendations
0.5 pts each way on each of these with firms offering 6 places with 1/5th odds
Park Of Kings 16/1 currently best price available
No Questions Asked 25/1 best available
Punctuation 50/1 quite widely available right now
That’s a wrap for this weeks action!
Thanks for reading once again. I hope my thoughts have been helpful to some during the week but whatever you have backed, I hope it’s been a profitable festival
The Festival got under way today with the ground looking to be good to soft in opening races – and with a drying afternoon it won’t get any worse. The chase course was riding a bit slower than the hurdles course according to Nico de Boinville after his ‘off the sofa’ ride in the Arkle.
A note on the weather for Wednesday morning. There seems to be a possibility of frost overnight and wintry showers on Wednesday morning. This should stop any possibility of the ground drying further and may make it more testing yet. A ground update from Cheltenham tomorrow morning is recommended https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/.
I’ll go through my thoughts below on assumption of it remaining Good to Soft.
6 of the 11 runners here are from the Mullins stable but Final Demand looks to be the clear number one. He was very impressive last time, albeit over a longer trip and comes here with a rating 5 pounds more than anything else. I do feel he is the one to beat but the shorter trip and the undulating course (can be more of an issue for bigger horses like him) are at the back of my mind. With stamina seemingly a forte and 4 stablemates to help out, I’m expecting a well-run race to avoid an ill-suiting sprint finish
The New Lion is unbeaten and was very impressive in winning the Challow Hurdle over Christmas (a race that a notoriously bad record for its winners coming here it has to be said). The form of that race doesn’t look quite so good to me now as it did then though – even though he did win easily. He is the big UK hope here representing the Dan Skelton stable
Back in 3rd in the Challow was Bill Joyce by 5.5 lengths. That horse then went to Cheltenham and was beaten 12 lengths by Sixmilebridge with Potters Charm separating them in 3rd.
Admittedly Sixmilebridge was receiving weight from both 2nd and 3rd that day but it still makes him a viable opponent here with proven course form.
Potters Charm was odds-on favourite that day and didn’t run up to expectations. Connections did seem to have an argument about running him and it might have been better if he didn’t. His previous form on this track was excellent and if he is 100% again (stable suggests he is), he is another real contender.
The Yellow Clay was fancied but only sixth in last year’s Champion Bumper. He has been solid in his hurdles this season. Similarly to Potters Charm, he doesn’t win his races flashily but grinds them out more. That’s a good quality for me when it comes to an uphill finish like this.
I’m struggling to see a case for anything outside of these 5 but Mullins 2nd or 3rd strings have run well before so if fancying any of those at a big price there is still some hope.
Again Skybet offer an extra fourth place here for each-ways but again their model has shortened the win odds compared to other firms to account for this
Selection: I think Final Demand is the likeliest winner – more so if the ground doesn’t dry up any more overnight. His price is a bit too short for me though at under 2/1. I see more value in the prices of Potters Charm and Sixmilebridge as each way selections. Betting both with 4 places at Skybet makes a bit more appeal here but you’d want to back them at SP and hope for better than their current prices here. That might well happen if the two favourites are well backed
No recommendations given the advice is very limited to one bookmaker and it’s not one I can get a bet on with myself for more than pennies!
****
2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
It’s sad to see the premier longer distance race for novice chasers has no UK trained runners this year. Also 4 of the 7 runners are from the Mullins stable.
Ballyburn is the obvious favourite. He isn’t proven over this trip but wasn’t stopping last time out. His jumping isn’t flawless but it’s no worse than stablemate Dancing City’s (may require softer ground to make it more a stamina test).
Last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Stellar Story, takes the prize for most awkward looking jumper in the field though. He looked like he was given a ride just to get round and improve his confidence last time or else he may have beaten his stablemate, Better Days Ahead.
If the ground did dry further then Gorgeous Tom could become more of a contender. He’s also unproven on the trip but looks like he may relish it.
Selection. I can’t really avoid Ballyburn here. His hurdling form is a good notch above these. Would I back him around Evens though in what may be his stiffest jumping test yet – unlikely!
*****
2.40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle
I’ve been sweet on Beat the Bat for some time in this race. I wasn’t sure he would get in with his lower weight so was delighted to see him scrape in at number 24.
Harry Fry’s charge run in top two mile handicaps the last two occasions and been well supported in both. It’s been evident in both though that the trip was too short and I’m sure this longer trip is something he is crying out for. His last race at Newbury has often been a good guide for this race.
Ground is not an issue whichever way it goes overnight here
Given, Dan Skelton’s past prowess in doing long range plots for handicap hurdles here respect has to be given to Be Aware. The horse’s name is well found though as bookmakers are fully aware of his credentials in making him around 5/1.
Softer ground does seem a positive for him so any overnight changes are worth noting – he is just too short a price for me now.
Willie Mullins’ Bunting is currently sharing favouritism but the stable’s record in handicap hurdles is pretty dire if you look at my previous post on this subject. I note from www.gaultstats.com that he is 1 from 50 in this race since 2010
The Mullins stable also field Jimmy Du Seuil who has s standout piece of form from this meeting last year that he hasn’t matched since. If he did find himself in the groove back here he would be a contender.
Ballyadam was 2nd in this race last year from a mark of 147 (has today). He also ran well in the County Hurdle the previous year off. Good ground is probably what he wants and it’s easy to see him running well again but at the age of 10 now can he really improve to win off a higher mark than he has had to shoulder before.
Not every firm offering enhanced 6 places here as yet – which has been replicated moreso in other handicaps. It’s been noticeable that 5 places is often more prevalent this year and as such there is a bit less value in handicaps to be seen generally so far. In contrast, Skybet offer 8 places if you can get a bet on with them
Recommendation. Back Beat the Bat 1 pt each way at 14/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or better
****
3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
Any regular devotees of my blog will know this is the time I put the kettle on and sit down to watch without getting involved in betting. A history of having jockeys taking the wrong course on this special course doesn’t help. This is the first year it has been a handicap which should make it more competitive. I still can’t help think it’s like going to Wimbledon but watching an Exhibition match played between old professionals and employing a few trick shots
With all that in mind I’ll pass on a selection and just wish anyone luck who has a bet on it!
****
4.00 Queen Mother Champion Chase
As long as we stick with a flat field of 8 runners here then each way options will give us 3 places. If one were to come out then it would go down to 2 places and make each way betting a bit less attractive.
Jonbon is unbeaten in this division this year and this looks like the opportunity for him to land his Festival win. He has been second twice here in the past and had to be withdrawn late last year when his stable had some huge issues with the form of their horses.
If it did get very soft ground it might make things harder but that looks unlikely.
One of Nico de Boinville’s main tasks will be to focus on not giving too much rope to the field’s obvious front runner, Solness.
Solness has been a revelation at Leopardstown this year when he has taken his form to a new level. He hasn’t been taken on for the lead much and connections would have been delighted when another pace option, Matata, was taken out of the race at the 5 day stage.
If he is let to roll along up front and get a decent lead, he could be dangerous (a previous run on this track wasn’t great) but I don’t think Jonbon will let him get away.
If the ground does soften up then I can envisage a better run from the 2022 champion Energumene. He is 11 years old now and firmly in the veteran stage. He was put in his place last time out by Jonbon but showed he still retains plenty of ability.
With Solness here to force the pace, and Jonbon likely to be ghosting him, I can envisage more of a hold up ride on Energumene here. This tactic worked well for him in 2022. I do think he needs some cut in the ground to have a real shot at Jonbon though
Selection; Jonbon has to be my pick on all form this year. At around 7/1 I I think Energumene would provide some each way value though – but only if the ground remains good to soft or deeper – and that there remain 8 runners. Therefore I’ll only be looking to bet him as we get closer to the race
*****
4.40 Grand Annual Challenge Cup
Another competitive handicap with last year’s winner, Unexpected Party, returning to try and retain his title of a 6 pound higher mark. The respect that bookmakers have for his trainer has again been reflected in his odds though I’d suspect Skelton may have hoped to get him lower than this mark if he could have done.
Jazzy Matty is also a previous Festival winner having triumphed in the Juveniles handicap hurdle in 2023.He is a novice here but looks to have been plotted up with a hurdle race preparation. Before then he’d gone close in a 4 runner novice chase – the form of which may be questionable as the race was very slowly run.
JPR One is the class horse of the race but has to carry 12 stone because of it and of the higher weights I prefer My Mate Mozzie, who finished one place in front of him in last year’s Arkle and is 5 pounds better off.
The likely strong pace here is likely to suit My Mate Mozzie’s hold up style. He’s a versatile horse who was placed at Royal Ascot on the flat last year but is equally effective over chases and hurdles at a high level.
He wouldn’t want to see lots of rain and I can also say the same for General Medrano who should also be suited by strong pace. He got to the front too soon at Doncaster last time but was massively impressive at Newbury earlier in the season. He’s never raced at Cheltenham before so there has to be a little question mark in my head as to if he will cope with the undulations. The price is big enough to mitigate those doubts though
Two selections here;
Recommendations
1pt ew My Mate Mozzie taking 7/1 or better with 5 places
0.5 pts ew General Medrano taking 20/1 or better
****
5.20 Champion Bumper
Another impossible race where to have any idea you would want some inside stable info – ideally from the Mullins stable with its 5 runners (a small entry from them this year!).
Copacabana’s place at the head of the market was cemented when JP McManus recently said it as his only bet coming into the meeting. An odd thing to say when he doesn’t own and recently paid plenty for Aqua Force in the same race.
Lots of horses here with impressive recent wins but we can’t be sure what they beat and how strong the form is.
Another race to sit out with no selection – but to watch carefully with a view to the future as it is a breeding ground for future good hurdlers and chasers
****
Overall, this looks a quieter betting day for me today but hopefully some food for thought is in there …for 5 of the races at least!
Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back
Welcome back to annual followers of my blog covering the 4 days of National Hunt racing’s Olympics!
I’ll try to work through all races again on a day-by-day basis highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself. Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.
My main social media activity now on horse racing is the Blue Sky app (bsky.app) where I’ll post any extra snippets I see during the week (@senormoodoir.bsky.social ). I have already added a few early ante post interests in there this year – some of which the prices have now dropped a good bit on – so the value on those may have disappeared by now.
I used to cover the statistical pointers that can often pick out winners but this is done so much better in recent years by www.gaultstats.com. It is Bryan Gault’s last year doing this invaluable resource and please remember to contribute to the cause he is doing it for if finding it useful.
There is a slightly different look to this year’s Festival with the placement of races and the removal of a couple of races to be replaced by new handicaps.
Centrepiece races have now been moved back to 4pm each day and are now the 5th race on the card. Great news for younger fans who may have been trapped in school and unable to watch – about 50 years too late for me though in that regard!
Ground conditions are always going to play a significant factor. Last year we had softer conditions but there has been less rain this year and some watering has been already done to try and ensure we get Good to Soft or even Good ground which so often the Festival begins with.
*take note that Oddschecker has now started to charge for this service after they deem you to have used it too much – change to another browser if you can when that happens and you should be able to access again
The traditional opener to the meeting is this year run in honour of 2023’s winning jockey, Michael O’Sullivan, who tragically died from a riding accident last month.
It would certainly be quite fitting if the same colours were to triumph again here with William Munny, a horse with a live each-way chance.
William Munny was one of the best bumper horses in Ireland last season but it wasn’t until his 3rd run over hurdles before he started to finally began to realise his hurdling potential with a very easy win at Punchestown. Prior to that he hadn’t settled in his races and was beaten 7 lengths by Workahead at Leopardstown. The two reoppose here but I wouldn’t take that form literally as the second looked a different article last time.
Romeo Coolio was similar level in bumpers to William Munny last year and has transitioned to hurdles very well this year.
These three are all contenders for the places for me though if Kopek Des Bordes can show the same form that blew away a decent field with ease at Leopardstown in February. One of six runners from the all-powerful Willie Mullins stable here, he is clearly their number one.
His hurdling debut showed some jumping flaws bu they did seem to have been ironed out next time. However he did show a possible weakness when getting very lit up in the preliminaries and looking like he might get out of control with jockey Paul Townend early on. I’m sure the stable would have worked on that since and a hood is applied for the first time here to help deal with the task he is going to face (Willam Munny also wearing the same first time headgear).
There is a real pressure cooker atmosphere for the first race as the crowd get revved up for the first race and there is a traditional roar. False starts are not uncommon in this race so it does present a test for the favourite.
In short I think, the biggest rival for Kopek Des Bordes could be himself. If the start goes fine and he settles he is going to take a lot of beating. If things don’t go so well then others have a chance.
At around Even money to win I can’t therefore support him.
In the past many firms have dangled a carrot in this opening race with extra places to give some value. Only Skybet have gone that far this year but in so doing are offering slightly lower prices than others so I’m still not getting too excited there (marginal preference for Romeo Coolio as the one who looks guaranteed to finish in the top 4 to me but not much between him, Workahead and William Munny)
I must also mention Tripoli Flyer who showed what an engine he has when winning the last twice easily despite some indifferent hurdling. His best form is all on decent ground (should get that) and on flat tracks (won’t get that). I thought Aintree in April would be far more suitable for him so a little surprised to see him running here. If he can cope with the track he is definitely dangerous. However, the fact his stable haven’t yet run him here , despite being almost next door to the track, suggests to me that it may not be ideal for him.
Selection: KOPEK DES BORDES (but not a betting proposition for me)
****
2.00 Arkle Challenge Trophy
I’ve already covered this in my earlier post regarding some early selections. Not much has changed except there are now only 5 runners and so there is no more each way with 3 places.
I think Majborough will win if he jumps round cleanly – but he is flamboyant at times and I can easily see him making a bad mistake at some point on this tricky course. If he does that would let the clean jumping course winner L’Eau Du Sud in as the most likely to profit.
Both horses have already beat Touch Me Not this season and should do so again. That one’s inclusion in the race is good though as he is a decent jumper who can put pressure on the favourite up front.
Jango Baie looks like he needs further and might be caught for pace at a crucial stage but should be running on late. Only By Night also looks likely to be held up and delivered late but I just don’t think her form is good enough to win.
Selection: I’ve already put up L’EAU DU SUD when each way 1/5 odds 123 was available. Place odds are less attractive now this has become less of a betting proposition. I still think he represents a little more value than the odds on favourite Majborough though
****
2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase
Always a competitive handicap and one that has served me well over the years.
I’m find it very tricky this year though!
The Changing Man has done well to stay on a mark of 140 after a bloodless win last time (aided by all his rivals making errors). He has been a slow developer with his jumping technique but finally seems to have got his act together now. Whilst he has been consistent in decent handicaps this season he has been beaten in them off lower marks than here. The handicap record of his trainer Joe Tizzard (see my earlier post on trainer stats) is also disconcerting. He has a chance but I can see him placing again rather than winning – and also I think a smaller field may have suited him better.
Broadway Boy has a fine record on this course and runs here in preparation for the Grand National. That slightly puts me off here as you would imagine that connections have left some room for improvement with a bigger aim to come. He may prefer softer and for a front runner to win this off such a high weight would be quite some task.
I’ve always been drawn to lower weights carrying less than 11 stone in this race.
Katate Dori would immediately therefore be on the shortlist after an impressive win last time that sees his mark increase by 12 pounds here. He may well still be ahead of the handicapper.
Lucinda Russell has won race before and has both Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown in the right weight zone. The former has stable jockey Derek Fox on board and appears to be the number one (if there is a jockey switch take note). He had a nice sighter of these fences over an inadequate trip last time. Additionally, Whistle Stop Tour would appear to appreciate the drying conditions while Myretown may prefer softer.
Marginal preference though is for Irish challenger, The Short Go who had Broadway Boy behind him here earlier in the season (latter beaten 11 lengths and is only 5 pounds better of). He obviously doesn’t cope with deep winter ground and the forecast conditions here must be in his favour. With Rachel Blackmore on board, he might well be a popular pick on the day. Expect to see a hold up ride with him being smuggled into the race late on.
I also can’t leave an old friend, Straw Fan Jack, completely alone at huge odds. His form has been indifferent this year but there were signs of a revival last time and he’s now on a 6 pound lower mark than when 3rd at the Festival last year (Reopposing Crebilly just ahead but worse off here yet a much shorter price). His jumping can be erratic but his form at Cheltenham overall isn’t bad. The trip is a slight question mark but he is a huge price to make up for that
Selections: Not a race for risking too much on but I’m interested in The Short Go at around 14/1 each way with firms offering 6 places. Also a speculative little each way on Straw Fan Jack at 50/1 or bigger
Recommendations
1pt ew The Short Go
0.5 pts ew Straw Fan Jack
3.20 Mares Hurdle
The complexion of this race changed enormously at the final declaration stage when last year’s winner, Lossiemouth, was declared rather than the Champion Hurdle.
Her form should be on a different level to the rest but she did suffer a nasty fall last time. She should win, but there is always going to be a slight seed of doubt about whether she is fully 100% given she sidestepped the bigger prize.
With her being odds-on favourite it’s also killed any hope of being offered an extra place on the race.
It’s possible to give place chance to nearly all the rest but I’m most drawn to Queens Gamble given she has such good past course form and will like the better ground.
A plot to take a big handicap at Leopardstown in February was scuppered by softer conditions and a bruised knee during the race (also not Blackmore’s finest of rides).
I think she’ll benefit form a longer trip here and can see her running well.
She probably won’t beat the favourite if on song but many firms offer ‘betting without the favourite’ and that option becomes more interesting in this circumstance.
Selection: QUEENS GAMBLE each way in the ‘Betting without Lossiemouth’ market at hopefully 16/1 or better
Recommendation: 1pt ew Queens Gamble – in betting without Lossiemouth market
*****
4.00 Champion Hurdle
I’ll cut to the chase here for Tuesday’s premier race.
Constitution Hill is probably the best hurdler I have seen since Golden Cygnet in the mid 1970s when I first started watching this sport.
Unless something is ailing him, and I can’t imagine he would be here if his trainer didn’t think he was 100% , then I struggle to see him getting beaten. If anything, my biggest worry would be the final hurdle. He didn’t met it right in his last run and when last wining this race he jumped way too early after seeing a shadow on it
Brighterdaysahead is a fine mare and its great to see here in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. Her pacemaker, King of Kingsfield, should make this race a true test. They employed similar tactics to hand out a thrashing to the 2024 Champion Hurdler, State Man, over the Christmas period.
That tactic should be enough to derail any hopes for State Man again, but if anything it will be help for Constitution Hill. The favourite’s most impressive career win in the Supreme Novices Hurdle came on the back of a breakneck pace also.
Burdett Road likes to force the pace also so might also find himself on the backfoot on the uphill home straight.
I put up Golden Ace as a value each way proposition on Blue Sky at 100/1 at the beginning of the year. I thought I had done my money on that as she looked likely to be in the Mares Hurdle but a late change of mind was very welcome.
I can see here being ridden for a place here (will add plenty of value to her as a broodmare) and am hopeful she can take advantage of others being broken by the favourite.
There is no more 100/1 though and no more 3 place options for each way so the value on her has largely gone
Selection; CONSTITUTION HILL – but at no more than 8/13 there aren’t too many rich pickings to be gained here
***
4.40 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Another race where I was active on Blue Sky a few weeks ago to suggest Hot Fuss at 33/1 after an unconventional prep run at Southwell.
I think he ran in one of the best juvenile races in the UK this season when putting it up to current Triumph Hurdle favourite, East India Dock, at Wincanton. He was a little disappointing in deep ground at Chepstow over Christmas but that has meant he has a nice low mark of 122 here. His Southwell win wouldn’t have affected his mark but it showed an improved performance sporting a first time visor.
Connections now use first time blinkers and I think he’s very much one to keep on the right side of whilst he has an attractive mark.
Chief danger is another of East India Dock’s victims this year, French raider Stencil. Stencil was the only one to keep with his conqueror’s strong pace last time and only gave way in the closing stages after travelling noticeably well. He is the likely favourite here but I don’t think his mark of 135 is unduly harsh – and the pace of this race will suit.
James Reveley has been saying is preview evenings recently that his mount is better than a handicapper and I tend to agree.
Far less attractive is well supported Irish raider, Total Look, who I think may almost get the prize of worst handicapped horse in the race. His UK mark of 132 is 9 pounds higher than his current Irish mark of 123. Additionally, he was beaten by both Quantock Hills and Teriferma at this track in December when receiving weight from both. Now he has to give them both 6 pounds. Cheekpieces may be on for the first time and his trainer is a shrewd operator – but if this wins there should be a stewards enquiry for some explanations!
I’m largely in the mind that Irish juvenile hurdlers this season are coming into this a little bit too harshly handicapped. It must be noted though that Joseph O’Brien won this last year with another horse who didn’t look that well in but had been prepared especially for the race. Take note then for any strong money on the day for Puturhandstogether or Beyond Your Dreams (not least because they are both owned by prolific punter JP McManus)
Selections:
STENCIL Each way taking 11/2 or better – some firms offering 6 places but not all
HOT FUSS 12/1 each way – the really nice prices have already gone unfortunately
Recommendations
2pts ew Stencil
1pt ew Hot Fuss
*****
5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap
A big change to this long distance novices race this year. For the first time it is now a handicap and is no longer the domain of amateur riders. A ceiling for horse with marks no more than 145 also restricts the upper echelon of novice chasers from taking part. A bit of early planning from some stables would have been needed.
As there is no previous running there are no previous stats to work from either.
Another race I’ve already covered to some degree when offering up Haiti Couleurs in my Early Ante Post selections post.
I’m still strongly in his favour. Connections think highly enough of him to think they could have run him in the Turners Novice Chase tomorrow – a non-handicap novices championship race – but his handicap mark of 135 meant this race was always going to be more ttractive.
He has purposefully been given a small break since his immaculate round of jumping to secure a course win here in December. A hurdles run last month which would not affect his chase mark was more than satisfactory and his trainer has a great strike rate at the Festival from not too many past runners
That Cheltenham piece of form is the key to this race I think and also throws up his biggest danger, Transmission. Neil Mulholland’s charge is reunited with Patrick Mullins here and is 4 pounds better off for just over 2 lengths. He has also had a recent run over hurdles to protect his chase mark and promises to be suited by a longer trip.
The prevailing ground shouldn’t be a barrier to either horse and I think they are the two best handicapped horses in this race on this years form.
Gericault Roque is also well handicapped on past Festival form but he has only run once this year after a long lay-off since 2022. There is always a chance of a dip back in form after such a break but he still can’t be totally discounted.
Again we have a short priced Gavin Cromwell runner here, Now Is the Hour, where I simply don’t get the shortened odds. He has undoubtedly not been showing all his card this year to try and get a slimmer mark but 139 has a bit bigger waistline that they would have hoped for. His stand out piece of form comes from very deep ground at Haydock. That’s a specialist track when the ground is deep and it’s like chalk and cheese compared to this course with drier conditions
Selections: HAITI COULEURS 4/1 and TRANSMISSION 11/2 (currently best prices with all firms seeming offering 5 places rather than 6)
Recommendations:
2pts ew Haiti Couleurs
1.5 pts ew Transmission
****
Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,
Paul
(I will be posting my thoughts for Wednesday’s card late tomorrow afternoon after scrutinising early results)
Already recommended on previous blog post L’Eau Du Sud 2.40 and Haiti Couleurs 5.20
Already recommended on previous BSky posts – Golden Ace e/w 100/1 4.00; Hot Fuss 33/1 4.40
(Note I have also also recommended Beat the Bat in Wednesday’s Coral Cup at 25/1 on BSky who was also confirmed for the race today and I’ll cover again tomorrow)
As I write with 3 races complete on Day 3, the ground appears to be improving a little and is now Soft rather than Heavy. If we get no rain in the next 24 hours, then it could be decent conditions tomorrow. There is currently some rain forecast overnight though. A check of conditions tomorrow morning will influence the strength of some of my picks below. For now, I’m assuming it will be the same as today
A nice winner on the blog on day 3 with Shakemupharry means recommended bets are now showing a 10.7 pt profit this week from 32 pt staked (including places from Ginnys Destiny and Where It All Began). Golden Ace not recommended but favourably mentioned. Hopefully some latched onto her as well.
A proper JP McManus plot came to fruition in the last with Inothewayurthinking winning easily and justifying a fairly ridiculous looking price of 13/8 in a 22 runner handicap.
A good day for the UK side otherwise with 5 winners from the 7 races
*******
130 Triumph Hurdle
Sadly, the problems with the Henderson stable meant that ante post favourite Sir Gino was taken out of this race today. At least we got to know the news early so markets could be adjusted in good time
It’s hard not to see an Irish success with only heavy ground loving SALVER seemingly having any chance for the home side. It’s impossible to equate his form against the Irish but I would suspect he hasn’t beaten too much of note as yet – even if he hasn’t been pushed to do so.
Most of the Irish runners have been running against each other this season and their form is closely tied. There is no standout contender amongst them. KARGESE came out best at Leopardstown last time but given that was MAJBOROUGH’s first run since leaving France, it would be no surprise to see him improve enough to turn the table.
NURBURGRING didn’t run there but was only a nose behind KARGESE in his last run. He’s a classy flat staying performer and I feel wasn’t suited at all by the slow pace that day. A stronger gallop here looks to be ideal for him. I like he’s been given a break to freshen up for this and with the stable already winning one juvenile hurdle at this meeting he’s my favoured option.
SALVATOR MUNDI hasn’t run since April last year when just beaten by Sir Gino in France. That form reads very well now but his preparation has been held up and he was forced to miss the big Leopardstown trial. Coming here on his first run for Mullins is pitching in very deep very quickly. Jockey booking doesn’t suggest he’s the main hope of the Mullins stable either. I suspect he’s more of a project now to keep his maiden status here with novice hurdling in mind next season.
VERDICT. With the ground not quite as deep as it was, I think the useful flat performer Nurburgring will be favoured most and with some firms offering 4 places will do for me.
Dan Skelton has already been in terrific form at this Festival, and this is the race in which he has always excelled. Both L’EAU DU SUD and last year’s winner FAIVOIR therefore have to be prime contenders here. Both ran very well when they were in 2nd and 5th place in Newbury’s Tote Gold Trophy. FAIVOIR has done that form no harm since. He still remains on a good mark here while L’EAU DU SUD was raised 6 pounds since Newbury. Oddsmakers are well aware of the Skelton record here though so don’t expect generous pricing
KING OF KINGSFIELD had ABSURDE behind him when both were some way behind the two principles in a hot novice event last time. However, that was behind two horses who have won here since this week. His mark of 140 certainly looks very generous now. I just wonder if he wants better ground, but his class could still see him through
It’s last year’s race where I go to find an outsider who I think could run well here. It’s always a tough ask for 5-year-olds to do well in handicap hurdles but PETIT TONNERRE didn’t do badly at all to be 6 lengths behind FAIVOIR and the second PIED PIPER. He’s had an interesting time over chases this season where I often got the feeling his mark was being looked after. He reverts to hurdles here and connections have reached for a first-time visor. Six is a much better age for this race and his mark is now 4 pounds lower
VERDICT. I think a few at the top of the market are just a bit too short so am going for a bit of value with all the extra places being offered
RECOMMENDATION 0.5 pts ew PETIT TONNERRE (look for 25/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or more)
*****
250 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle
Soft ground for this longer distance novice event can often throw some surprise winners. It’s sometimes the experience and hardened types who can get their moment in the sun.
I think there is no more promising novice in the UK than GIDLEIGH PARK, but I do worry if 3 miles in soft ground at this stage of his development could be too much. If he were mine, I’d rather they skipped this race and saved him for Aintree if being honest
He’s much more attractively priced than READINTOMMYWRONG who also promises to improve again over this trip but is unproven. The price here is no doubt influenced by the power of his stable in the novices department
VERDICT. I’m a big fan of GIDLEIGH PARK and wouldn’t want to back against him. I’d rather back win only here as it’s the type of race I could see many runners being looked after for the future if the test appears to be too much for them
RECOMMENDATION
1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK taking 13/2 or better
*****
330 Cheltenham Gold Cup
The premier race of the meeting sees rivalry ensued by last year’s impressive winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and FASTORSLOW. They have never met on this course but since have met 3 times and the score is currently 2-1 to FASTORSLOW. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has won the latest duel coming out victorious by 4 lengths
I can’t really envisage a winner coming outside of these 2. Last year’s Grand National winner CORACH RAMBLER would be dangerous if within spitting distance with half a mile to go but I fear he may get himself too far detached.
The state of the ground will have some bearing here. The softer it is favours GALOPIN DES CHAMPS but if it dries some more, it gets closer. It’s been noticeable that FASTORSLOW has gained more lengths while jumping than his rival in all their meetings.
Also worth noting that FASTORSLOW had wind surgery straight after his last run.
VERDICT. It is the pricing that dictates matter for me here. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is around Evens while FASTORSLOW is around 5/1. I think the former remains the likeliest winner but don’t see the gap between them being as big as odds suggest. I also struggle to see FASTORSLOW out of the frame and with many firms offering an enhanced four places that has to be the value play for me . Mullins Gold Cup winners tend to have come here when they have had a light and easy preparation. This year things haven’t been always so smooth in th warm up to make me think the favourite is a certainty
RECOMMENDATION; 2pts ew FASTORSLOW 5/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available)
*****
410 Foxhunters Chase
I’ve never been an expert on the point to point/hunter chase realm so will have to take a pass on it here. The only vibe I really get is that FERNS LOCK would have stamina issues on this trip/ground
NO BET
*****
450 Mares Chase
DINOBLUE’s form is clearly the best here but it all comes at 2 miles. Over an extra half mile on soft ground there has to be a question mark that I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking 11/10 to find out the answer.
I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from BRIDES HILL this season and apparently no horse works better in Gavin Cromwell’s yard. The ground is her issue. I would have no hesitation in backing her here on good to soft or better, but this may be too soft?
Stablemate LIMERICK LACE will have no such ground issues. She really wants a longer trip but will expose any stamina frailties in rivals. It’s interesting that Keith Donoghue seemed to be certainly riding Brides Hill a week ago but has switched to her.
ALLEGORIE DE VASSY was second last year but is a quirky mare who definitely has two ways of running. She’s capable of winning but not reliable.
VERDICT. Not a race for me to get involved with until I’ve seen what the ground is like mid afternoon tomorrow. I do favour the two Cromwell mares’ chances at the prices. If the ground appears to be drying, I’d be with BRIDES HILL. If it remains testing, then I’d favour LIMERICK LACE. But for now……NO BET
*****
530 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
The final race is often full of budding talent that could be beyond the grip of the handicapper. It’s not that long since Galopin Des Champs first advertised his talent in this.
The market certainly expects QUAI DE BOURBON and WATERFORD WHISPERS to be two such types. Prices of 3/1 and 4/1 in a competitive 23 runner handicap don’t get me jumping in the air with excitement though. WATERFORD WHISPERS’s form is closely tied with ANSWER TO KAYF who is double the price.
I like the fact that ANSWER TO KAYF has been ridden regularly by the same conditional rider who accompanies him here. I’d just feel a bit happier if John Shinnick had some previous experience on this course.
A mention also has to be given to OCASTLE DES MOTTES who was a warm favourite for the Tote Gold Trophy but lost his chance when getting upset at the start. He retains a mark that looks generous on his previous French form
NO ORDINARY JOE was second in this last year off only a 1-pound lower mark. He looked to be being set up for the race again but as he comes from the troubled Henderson stable it’s impossible to be sure if he’ll be 100% here
VERDICT: I slightly favour ANSWER TO KAYF but am struggling to see any great value in odds available right now’ A couple of firms offering 9/1 on him right now is close to a recommendation for small stakes. I’d ideally like to see him slip out to a double figure price tomorrow to get involved
NO BET
****
That’s all for Day 4 and for this year’s Cheltenham Festival
Hope you have enjoyed reading today and throughout the week
Paul
SUMMARY OF DAY 4 RECOMMENDATIONS
130 1.5pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available)
210 0.5pts ew PETIT TONNERRE 25/1 (taking 1/5odds 123456)
250 1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK 13/2
330 2pts EW FASTORSLOW 5/1 (take 1/5 odds 1234 where available)
The second day of the Cheltenham Festival has somehow acquired the moniker of ‘Style Wednesday’. Whilst not attending the meeting I’ll have to remember to don my smoking jacket and cravat now for tomorrow’s fare! If you are going – and the weather is the same as on Tuesday morning – the ‘style’ decision maybe what colour Hunter wellies to wear.
A quick resume of Tuesday’s action first:
The stable form of Nicky Henderson was given no boost at all by Jeriko Du Reponet pulling up in the opener. Luccia did run well in the Champion Hurdle but Iberico Lord and Maries Rock also underperformed badly.
More rain than was expected contributed to some very testing heavy ground. It’s been dry during today and with little rain on the forecast tomorrow it may slip back to Soft going. There is an inspection at 8am for the Cross Country course which was waterlogged today. That will only affect the 410 race but if that does get cancelled we may get some time changes on the remainder of the card
A great start to the meeting for this blog with Slade Steel winning the opener. Unfortunately couldn’t add any more but The Goffer (ground too heavy for him I ear) and Milan Tino crept into advised places. That ends up with a 3.3 pt profit on the days recommendations.
Tomorrow isn’t as appealing generally on the betting front for me but my thoughts with a few recommendations below
*****
130 Gallaghers Novices Hurdle
Not the most competitive look to the opener with the Willie Mullins stable fielding 5 of the 8 runners – including the first 3 in the betting.
BALLYBURN has had the appearance of being a banker in whichever race he ran here in for a while. The victory of his latest victim, Slade Steel, in Tuesday’s opener has cemented this even more. Stamina and ground don’t look to be in question so it’s hard to see any other winner now.
If the UK side do have a surprise up their sleeve it should be HANDSTANDS. Ben Pauling knows what it takes to win this race after Willoughby Court in 2017. This one is full of potential and unbeaten in four races – albeit at a lower level. He is being chucked in at the deep end now but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him run well. (Pauling had no issues about the deep ground for Handstands today when asked on Racing TV)
VERDICT
Ballyburn should win but the price is too short for me to recommend. I admit to a small each way bet ante post on Handstands at 16/1 but that guarantees 3 places. Here would need the 8 runners all to start to get that and I think the task ahead of him increased after todays action
NO BET
*****
210 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
Another small field with only six here. FACT TO FILE has been the subject of glowing reviews from his stable and in preview evenings coming into this. ‘The next Gold Cup winner’ is a general vibe. I’d normally like to take his profile on given he has beaten very few horses in small fields. However, he did so in some very good times. I the combination of trip and ground isn’t an issue for him I’m inclined to think there may be something behind the hype here. At around EVS I wouldn’t want to bet him, but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either.
He appeared to break the will of his only rival Gaelic Warrior last time. That one did no harm to the form though on Tuesday!
STAY AWAY FAY won the 3-mile novice hurdle here last season and we can expect him to try and make this a test to exploit any stamina chinks. I think his connections may have preferred a bigger field though where he wouldn’t have to do all the donkey work himself.
MONTYS STAR looks a similar staying type to Stay Away Fay but wrapped up in a larger form. He didnt perform well on the course last year – that’sa negative but his stable have been performing well on day one
SANDOR CLEGANE was a bit unlucky behind Stay Away Fay here last season and at the start of the season was of interest to me for this race. He hasn’t looked like the most natural chaser so far though. His run last time looked to be a confidence boosting one to get him round safely. If he can jump quicker, I can see him running well at a price. But this isn’t the track or level of race to be on learning on
VERDICT
Another race that doesn’t entice me in to bet. Fact to File is my idea of the winner but again I don’t see enough value in the price to get involved
NO BET
****
250 Coral Cup
Some disappointment for me now coming into this competitive handicap. I had DODDIETHEGREAT and LUCKY PLACE marked down as my early picks. They are both trained by Nicky Henderson though and after day 1, the stable form there remains a major concern.
The form of Doddiethegreat’s last run has been hugely boosted since and he looked like the step up in trip here would suit him greatly.
Lucky Place’s latest course run against a very talented rival in Gidleigh Park was form that surpassed his mark of 137 in my view. The softer ground here would be a small question mark
They would have both been a recommendation but for the elephant in the room that now exists!
SA MAJESTE looks like a typical well hyped but underpriced Willie Mullins runner in a handicap. He’s fairly impossible to handicap, is very inexperienced and could be ten pounds well in or ten pounds badly in. As my post from last week suggests, following Mullins in handicaps isn’t the road to riches.
BUILT BY BALLYMORE is much more one to be wary of. The market isn’t taking any chances here though. Trainer Martin Brassil is possibly the most underrated trainer in Ireland and had two close seconds in handicaps at last year’s Festival. Again, it’s hard to handicap him properly but the team behind is much more one to fear in this kind of scenario in my mind
I’ve backed BALLYADAM at the Festival before but feel better ground will suit him
LANGER DAN won this race off the same mark last year and having performed so well at this time of the year before has to be on the shortlist. Again, I’m not sure if the ground might be riding a bit too deep for him though
MIGHT I will have no problems with the ground and ran well at the Festival last year off a higher mark. He’s spent this season chasing so far – and not very successfully. If that hasn’t taken its toll and Harry Fry has managed to get him back to his best, he would be a big runner here
VERDICT: I thought I had this race cornered but the huge issue of Henderson stable form has prevented me getting involved at this stage
NO BET
*****
330 Queen Mother Champion Chase
A few weeks ago, this looked like a two-horse race with EL FABIOLO and JONBON renewing rivalry. El Fabiolo was much the best in the Arkle last year and remains unbeaten in 6 chase races. Interest has been boosted though by a renaissance of form from 2022 Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE.
Alan King’s runner had been comfortable held by Jonbon twice this season when given hold up rides. However, he was allowed to bowl along up front last time and put in an exemplary round of precision jumping to win easily at Newbury.
This race now revolves around Edwardstone being given free rein up front once more. If he performs like he did at Newbury his superior jumping could take others out of their comfort zone. Both El Fabiolo and Jonbon can make mistakes (the latter appears to be getting worse and was even seen belting a fence in schooling on YouTube recently).
If he can get in such a rhythm and unsettle the others, it’s then a question of him having enough in the tank to last home in soft ground.
I think El Fabiolo is still the most likely winner here, but I wouldn’t be touching him at short odds.
I can easily see Edwardstone bettering Jonbon this time though.
CAPTAIN GUINNESS was second in this last year and could also benefit if ridden quietly behind the principals and pick rivals off late. He was a sick horse at Christmas and was patently looked after in an encouraging reappearance at Leopardstown in February. I’m not sure he’d have wanted all the rain that came early this week though. Some drying ground and I can see him placing again
The presence of another front runner in GENTLEMAN DU MEE and prominent racer ELIXIR DE NUTZ should ensure this race is run at a good clip. There should be no hiding places for any of them here
VERDICT. Whilst thinking El Fabiolo might well win I see more value in supporting Edwardstone each way. I can’t imagine they won’t employ the same tactics as suited him so well last time. I’d also like him in the Betting Without favourite market
Recommendation
1pt ew EDWARDSTONE – generally available 15/2 (as there are 8 runners 3 places will be paid. If there is a non-runner this may revert to 2 places but always worth checking if some firms offer the more advantageous 3 places)
*****
410 Cross Country Chase
However soft/heavy the regular track is, the cross-country course is reported to be worse. I’ve been no fan of this style of race for betting for many years and will happily pass again. It seems to have developed into a race for Gold Cup veterans these days
A fairly categoric (as usual in this race) NO BET
****
450 Grand Annual Hcap Chase
This race was always a regular target for Nicky Henderson as it is run in honour of his father. We don’t need to worry about stable form this time as he doesn’t have a runner this year.
The market seems to think SAINT ROI has been laid out for the race, but I couldn’t touch him given the abysmal jumping he displayed at Leopardstown last time veering violently to the right at times.
HARPERS BROOK is extremely quirky but has found a niche for his talents at two miles this season. He carries a health warning though as he is prone to stop when in front. If he is 10 lengths clear at last don’t assume he has it in the bag. If you back him a lay bet on Betfair Exchange at short odds is strongly encouraged for some insurance.
PATH D’OROUX is an interesting contender from a stable that knows how to plot for race like this. He will like the ground but is his jumping good enough?
LIBBERTY HUNTER is the progressive novice in the pack that often does well in this race but has to defy a large rise from the handicapper. MADARA is also on an upward curve but 13 pounds higher than his last win at this track.
TRIPLE TRADE caught Harpers Brook on the run in at Ascot earlier in the season and reopposes on the same terms. However, he is a much larger price as his latest run at Lingfield was disappointing. That looked to be bad to be true. He has looked to be suited by the uphill finish here before. The ground is a slight question mark but as he’s won on heavy earlier in his career. The Tizzard team may not have the best record in handicaps here but they were in good form over the weekend
VERDICT; I’m willing to give Triple Trade a chance to get his progression back on track here given the odds available
Recommendation:
0.5 pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (generally available with 1/5 odds 12345 – 6 places in one place)
*****
530 Champion Bumper
Another specialist race with no jumping involved. It’s a nursery in essence for next year’s hurdling novice hurdle events. Willie Mullins traditionally has a great record and has won 4 of the last 6 runnings. That’s not surprising though given he many runners he normally fields. This year he fields 9 of the 24 runners.
If jockey bookings are a sign, then his favoured would be JASMIN DE VAUX (Patrick Mullins) and CANTICO (Paul Townend).
That doesn’t always go to plan here though and he has won with bigger priced runners as well.
My eye is mainly drawn to C’EST TA CHANCE who was the subject of positive reports before Christmas. He was narrowly beaten by William Munny is his only start but after that one looked really special on his next start; the form doesn’t look bad at all.
THE YELLOW CLAY from Gordon Elliott’s stable was the eyecatcher in the main trial race for this at Leopardstown in February. I’m just a little concerned that stable jockey jack Kennedy has chosen JALON D’OUDAIRES instead.
Verdict: Not a race to go wild on with stakes but I’m willing to take a chance on C’est Ta Chance at decent odds
Recommendation 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 16/1 or better (take with firms offering 1/5 odds 12345 if possible)
Thanks for reading once more and good luck
Paul
WEDNESDAY RECOMMENDATIONS
330 1pt ew EDWARDSTONE 15/2
450 0.5pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (taking 1/5 odds 123)
530 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 161 (taking 1/5 odds 123)
Another Cheltenham Festival is upon us and has there ever been one with so many high-profile casualties dropping out of important races in the run up to it!
The going is currently good to soft but with drying conditions still likely we could be in for a good ground week. With so much immediate form on softer conditions this winter we could see a few surfacing this week who improve a lot for these conditions
Onto a run down of day 1:
Unfortunately two of my main fancies for today, Movewiththetimes in the opener and Value At Risk in the finale have joined the casualty list in the last 24 hours.
It’s made this a bit less of a betting day for me but will try to narrow down the principals a bit from what we have left
*****(Tuesday morning update added at end of each race where applicable)*****
Odds are headed here by Irish raider Melon representing the Willie Mullins team (successful in 2 of the last 3 runnings). Melon has only been seen once on the racecourse this season with an easy win in a fairly ordinary event at Leopardstown. That at least proved he is alive after so much speculation about his ability for months preceding the race. He looked fairly babyish in the paddock to me but did the job well. I do wonder with his inexperience how he will cope with the huge crowd and preliminaries here. He could win but his price is priced on what stable he is from and on home reputation – it is nothing to do with form and there is no value in his odds.
Mullins also has Bunk Off Early who has been mixing it in better company. He looked all over the winner last time before being outstayed by Neptune fancy Bacardys over a slightly longer trip. It’s quite astonishing to see his sire Zebedee have a runner here as he was a precocious 2yo sprinter. There have to be some question marks on breeding therefore about how he will stay on up the hill here. I can see him tanking along into the home turn but wonder if something else will finish off the race better.
Crack Mome also appears for the Mullins squad. Another with a big reputation earlier this season, he has something to find on what he has achieved so far but could improve for the better ground
Ballyandy boasts the strongest piece of form here in winning the Tote Gold Trophy where he seemed to flourish for a strong gallop. He should get that here. There have been some rumours coming into Cheltenham about the general well-being of his stable but a big priced winner on Friday seemed to scotch that a little. He is a previous winner here having won last seasons Champion Bumper – the double has been achieved before
High Bridge was 6th in the Bumper beaten just over 4 lengths. He’s unbeaten over hurdles this season where his rider amateur Alex Ferguson was able to claim his 7lbs allowance. He can’t claim that tomorrow and that has to be a big negative to his chances – I would have had him as the value bet in the race if he had an experienced jockey on board.
River Wylde showed his liking for decent ground at Kempton last time but is 3lbs worse off with the second Elgin here. I’m not sure if the difference between the two in form merits the difference in odds between them here. The latter found Neon Wolf much too good previously at Haydock but that one would have been favourite if he turned up here
Lastly a quick mention for Labaik. He has talent but is highly quirky and would be odds-on to plant his feet at the start and not run at all based on his recent visits to the racetrack!
Conclusions:
Ballyandy is the most solid pick for me and hard to see him out of the frame. Elgin appeals of the big prices as one who could run into the frame but at current odds I won’t be getting very heavily involved in this race
*****
Tuesday Morning Update
Doesn’t seem to be too many big moves int the market here. Just a small ew play for me when 33/1 Elgin appeared with 1/4 odds a place
Altior stands head and shoulders above these on form and it’s very hard to see him getting beaten as long as he completes. He’s looked fairly proficient in his jumping this season and the only thing I could see threatening him would be a slow tactical pace. (His least impressive win over hurdles came in such an affair at this course)
I wouldn’t be surprised if Nico de Boinville controlled the pace from the front to deal with that as he did last time at Newbury.
Of his rivals, Charbel was the highest rated over hurdles of the rest and looks the main challenger here. He could make the pace also but I’m sure connections don’t want to make him the sacrificial lamb in this race either. Taking on Altior too much could cost him dear if he does.
As long as David Bass plays it sensibly he would be my choice to follow the favourite home. There are a few in the race who might have already decided to ride for a place here
Selection (unsurprisingly) is Altior (far too low in odds to tempt me to bet though!)
Quite a big race for stats in the past here. Novices have perfomed quite well and the higher weight have been at a disadvantage.
The Druids Nephew has slipped back to the same mark that he won this race impressively off in 2015. He has to be a player on that basis but his form was much better coming into that race and I just wonder if he’ll be sharp enough this time.
Noble Endeavour has run well at the course before and had had positive comments from his trainer at preview nights. The 11st 11lb he has to carry is what puts me off even if his actual mark could be reasonable enough
I have a feeling this trip may stretch the novice Ibis Du Rheu a little and so the one that stands out to me is another novice chaser, Singlefarmpayment.
He was unlucky to be brought down last time but looks well handicapped on what he has achieved this year (including an impressive course win). Tom George could have run him in the RSA chase tomorrow but obviously feels his mark needs exploiting here
First recommendation of the day here:
1pt ew SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 15/2 (Bet 365 and Bet Victor currently offering ¼ odds 12345
******
Tuesday morning update
Definitely ahead of the price here. Singlefarmpayment now a top price 6/1 on Oddschecker (7.4 to back on Exchange in win only market)
3.30 Champion Hurdle 2 miles
The highlight of day one but sadly missing it’s last two winners, Faugheen and Annie Power through injury:
Disposed of a competitive handicap field at Ascot in impressive fashion despite a high weight. That immediately meant he was ready for this grade. Good ground should suit and handicappers have made such a jump before in the same season (Celtic Shot and Make A Stand immediately springing to mind). Definite contender though would have liked to see him perform better than he did on the course at the beginning of the season – does it suit him? – the jury is out on that one
BUVEUR D’AIR
Third in last year’s Supreme Novices then a narrow winner at Aintree from Petit Mouchoir. Started the season chasing but switched back as some of the principals dropped out. His sole hurdle win this season is a mile away from Championship form. Has undoubted potential but price is very skinny on what he has achieved. Even the trainer admits he needs softer ground and a prime candidate to see his odds drift on the day of the race
CH’TIBELLO
No crabbing this horse from me as I explained in my blog this week!. Has come out of a small wind operation well since beaten by Yanworth last time. Prior to that I thought that he might not quite get home on a stiff track like this but maybe he might now that this little issue has been sorted. He’s a very slick jumper and a better horse on a decent surface. I’m hopeful he will run on from the back to grab a place
CYRUS DARIUS
Looked a potential new star when skating up at Aintree in his novice season. Unfortunately injury ruled him out of most of last season. Hasn’t done enough yet this year to make me think he is a contender at this level
FOOTPAD
From last years juvenile crop which it has to be said have looked distinctly average last year. I did see him at Leopardstown both this year and last and was impressed how much he had strengthened up over the 12 months interim period. Probably flattered last time to get so close to Petit Mouchoir last time while a 2 way battle was going on up front. I think he’s up against it here
MOON RACER
Champion Bumper winner in 2014 but has had a few problems since. Unbeaten this season and could have run in the Supreme Novices. Rerouted here probably as he is 8 already and has left it late to get here. Nothing in his form that merits his current price in my view and not for me
THE NEW ONE/MYTENTORYOURS
I’m putting these two together as they represent past Champion Hurdle form which could have been a higher level than this year’s race. Neither are getting any younger and have had their chances
Both beaten by Yanworth at Kempton over Christmas (Ch’tibello 3rd) and hard to see how they will turn that around.
Mytentoryours has been the subject of some glowing gallop reports lately and is the one of the pair who might just spring an upset. He’s always been his own worst enemy by pulling too hard and if age has finally calmed him down – and the talent he undoubtedly has has come back – then they should all be a little bit frightened
The New One seems to be slowly regressing on the other hand. Connections have talked about sending him chasing or going to the Stayers this season which indicates they think his time might have gone in this race.
PETIT MOUCHOIR
Boasts the best Irish form this year courtesy of two wins at Leopardstown. He looked hard fit to me for his last win and not sure if there’ll be much improvement from that. I’m also concerned about him on this track and whether he will come up the hill.
SCEAU ROYAL
Another from last season’s juvenile crop. Started the season well but has found his limitations since and beaten by Yanworth and Ch’tibello last time
WICKLOW BRAVE
The 2016 Irish St Leger winner would be the classiest of these on the flat. His preparation for this is hardly conventional with his last run being in the Melbourne Cup.
Can have two ways of running over hurdles – and more often than not it’s the negative side that turns up as he seems to want things to go his own way.
Has the ability to be a contender but it will be something of a shock to see him win (Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Footpad in preference)
YANWORTH
The favourite and deservedly so. Didn’t win by far last time at Wincanton but the way he pricked his ears on the run in suggested he was only doing as much as he had to. That course, and also Kempton over Christmas, would both be very sharp for him and this course should suit much better
.
The negative with Yanworth is his jumping. It might well have cost him a win in the Neptune last season as he was kept wide to have a clear view of his hurdles (Yorkhill nipped up the rails saving much more ground and got first un on him)
He did look better at Kempton but still doesn’t have as fluid a technique as others
CONCLUSIONS
Petit Mouchoir has made the running on his last two runs so he looks the most obvious front-runner here. I don’t think he’ll want to make it an end to end gallop though and I wonder who will share the honours up front – Moon Racer and The New One are probably most likely.
I can see the winner coming from one who sits just behind that pace but without being right at the back.
Yanworth at the top of my shortlist but the ‘elephant in the room/ that is his hurdling just prevents me from making him as a solid bet. Brain Power is a big danger if he handles the course. Mytentoryours is perhaps the value option at around 16/1 for those looking at the bigger prices if reports of his homework are true. Ch’tibello should do himself justice – I struggle to see him beating Yanworth but he makes some appeal in the ‘Betting without Yanworth market at around 20/1
*******
Tuesday morning update
Sadly Ch’tibello misses the race with a minor foot infection. He’ll probably be fine tomorrow so it’s gutting for connections for this to happen on the day. Probably Punchestown for him now. Strong money for Yanworth so far see him down to around 9/4 from around 3/1 last night
3 horses dominating here and all from Ireland. Limini and last year’s winner Vroum Vroum Mag from team Mullins and Gordon Elliott’s Apples Jade.
The vibes about Vroum Vroum Mag really haven’t been very positive recently since she struggled to win at Doncaster. She is the one I would most easily pass over with Ruby Walsh also making the same decision and riding Limini.
Limini beat Apples Jade last time well enough to suggest it would be hard for the Gigginstown runner to turn the form around. There is a suggestion that Limini may be best fresh though and I didn’t think she was that impressive when winning the Mares Novice race last season.
At the prices, Apples Jade has to be the each way bet for me with ¼ odds being available.
These three are someway ahead of the UK team on form. Lifeboat Mona and Colins Sister have both looked good but are both stepping up to a higher grade. I think the latter mare in particular could be up to this level in time but to me she wants a softer surface than she will encounter here
Recommendation:
2pts ew APPLES JADE 9/2 Bet 365 (be sure to take ¼ odds 123 rather than 1/5th)
********
Tuesday morning update
Pricewise went for Apples Jade the selection which probably prevented any hope of 5/1 appearing. Still 9/2 available in places which is better than can be found on the exchange. Sadly, Colins Sister bruised a heel and is out – it would have been nice to see how she fared in this grade but there will be other days for her!
I can see JP McManus wanting to win this race badly as it is named after a rider who won so many races for him until his life was tragically cut short.
If the British handicapper is right, his Edwulf is a 159 rated horse and some way ahead of these. The trip should suit, he has one of the best amateur riders possible on board and he was very impressive last time up. A fall in his previous race is the one nagging doubt about him but the race was won by Minella Rocco last year who had a similar question mark coming into the race. He just needs to get settled into a nice rhythm early
Champers on Ice appeals as the main danger from the home team. He was totally outpaced here over 2 and a half miles last time and this trip could be right up his street.
I think win only is the more prudent way to go here so the recommendations are:
I had Value At Risk marked firmly down for this one but nothing leaping out for me now he has dropped out. I may do an update closer to the time if things become clearer. While it is a handicap there is only 4lbs separating all the runners so it’s almost a conditions race in reality
*******
Tuesday update
I went through this race a bit overnight but nothing really shone out. Foxtail Hill might be well in but had his own way in the lead last time off a low weight. He has much more on his back now and strong likelihood that others will take him on. This could set it up for something to come from the back. Most of the field seem to be in the grip of the handicapper. I really liked Bun Doran‘s win at Ayr earlier this year but would be very concerned about the ground for him. Tully East performed well at the meeting last year and could do again back on decent ground. If I had to pick one it would be Double Ws at 16/1, who should like the ground and is still relatively unexposed at this trip. The North don’t get too many winners at Cheltenham these days but Malcolm Jefferson’s strike rate here must be one of the best for them. He did get a very positive mention from the jockey Brian Hughes at one of the preview evenings. Not a confident selection by any means and a race for low stakes
******
Monday Evening Update (8.50pm)
Pricewise in the Racing Post has put up two of the selections from earlier today:
Singlefarmpayment has been put up at a rather incredible 10/1 with Boylesports and 8/1 generally. At the moment 15/2 is the best available anywhere and there is no 8/1 even on Betfair exchange. Good luck to anyone who can avail themselves of 10/1 tomorrow morning!
Apples Jade has also been tipped at 9/2 so that price will be lucky to hold unless there is strong support for the Mullins pair.
A few firms going 1/4 odds a place in the Arkle has made it meat and drink for a ‘filthy each way bet’ Bet 365 in particular are appearing in black type on Oddschecker for many with their win odds. Charbel for instance is 12/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3. You get 3/1 for the place part of the bet here. On the place only market on Betfair Exchange the same horse is 5/4 to lay just to illustrate what value can be taken here. There are similar stand out place odds for all of the other runners so perfectly possible to back two and still come out with a profit if only 1 places. Charbel would be my strongest recommendation for an each way play with these place terms. Whatever you fancy, I would also recommend perming each way doubles if you have a selection or two in Wednesday’s Champion Chase also (Simply Ned remains my main each way play here). If you can get 1/4 odds a place as well here you are increasing the place odds in your favour even more. Your account may suffer for this kind of bet in time though!
*******
Thanks for reading – and here’s hoping we can get off to a good start with the meeting
I will do quick updates later this evening and at lunchtime tomorrow if more value appears. Firms will update their odds again later and there may be some better place terms available then also
Tuesday has ‘Good to Soft’ as the expected ground but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s riding nearer to Good given the weather forecast
The weather has certainly been fine over the last few days as this interesting PR shot that appeared today testifies….
Short but sweet – here’s the selections with some already covered in the Preview blog 1.30 Already covered in the Preview, I’m happy to see some 9/2 available for Altior and the best option is to go with Paddy Power who offer 1/5th odds a place 1234. The extra place offered counts for a lot Recommendation 2pts ew ALTIOR @9/2 (Paddy Power)
2.10
Douvan looks an exceptional novice and given a clear round it will be a shock if he’s beaten. Odds of 2/5 reflect this and with now only 7 runners there isn’t really an each way angle to play with. Vaniteux and Sizing John should be fighting it out for second from a form basis but there’s always a danger that if they try to take on the fav they could suffer for it and let the way in for one of the outsiders to jump into the frame. A race to watch but no bet for me now
2.50
Out Sam was my choice yesterday and I’ll stick with that although I won’t put him forward as a recommendation as the hoped for price of 8/1 is no longer there now. I do think he’s very well handicapped but it is in the back of my mind that he may not be streetwise enough for such a big field. It’s a very hot race with Holywell, Southfield Theatre and Morning Assembly all capable of performing well off their respective marks. Southfield Theatre would be marginally the pick of these for me from a price perspective at 20/1 with the prospect of the ground now getting close to the good he prefers
3.30Champion Hurdle
Again covered in the preview and 6/1 still there for The New one so that is where the recommendation lies.
Preview night chat seems to suggest that Sempre Medici will be held out back and ridden to place rather than win so he could be the one for anyone looking for a long priced outsider.
Sadly Old Guard didn’t make it into the race due to a muscle problem 1.5pts ew THE NEW ONE @6/1 (Betfred ¼ 123)
4.10
Covered in the preview again and the ground would seem to be coming right for Polly Peachum (and quite possibly against Vroum Vroum Mag)
Stephanie Frances is interesting at a big price. Dan Skelton has stated he’ll only run her if she gets her beloved good ground and that seems increasingly likely. The trip is a question mark but if this was a slow pace (has happened in this race before) she does have a potent turn of foot. With trailblazer Desert Queen in the field however, we are more likely to get a proper stamina test
1.5pts ew POLLY PEACHUM @13/2 (Coral ¼ 123)
4.50
No bet here. Minella Rocco looks to be plotted up for this but still has to questions to prove on jumping around this course. If I were forced to pick one it would be Measureofmydreams but I could easily make a shortlist of 7 or 8 possible winners in this tricky marathon event.
5.30
This is a handicap but with only 4lbs separating the 20 runners you would be forgiven for knowing that!
I’ve had this race in mind for Double Shuffle for some time and he’s jumped around the course with aplomb already twice this season. He’s only been raised 4 lbs for a win on ground that was probably a bit too soft for him and the surface here should suit much better. He was a decent hurdler but chasing was always going to see him in a better light and hope he can get Paddy Brennan off the scoresheet on what could be a good week for him. Enhanced place terms available here with Betfair Sportsbook if you can get on with them
Aloomomo is feared and had a nice prep over hurdles at Ascot for this. He’s ben raised 11lbs since his last chase win and may well be up to that. The ground will be quicker here than what he has won on before however. At a best price of 6/1 I think the market has him plenty short enough already. Recommendation: 1pt ew DOUBLE SHUFFLE @11/1 (Betfair Sportsbook ¼ odds 12345)
Thanks for reading and good luck!
Paul
*MIDDAY UPDATE*
Main news this morning was the almost nonchalant aanouncement that Vautour would head for the Ryanair on Thursday instead of Friday’s Gold Cup by the owner (last week he was quoted as ‘Gold Cup’ or nothing). This will have sent the Ryanair market into disarray. It’s good news for Cue Card supporters like myself and I imagine that Smad Place backers will take most heart from this announcement. That one is now far more likely to get the uncontested lead he seems to enjoy (Road to Riches could possibly keep him company)
As for today’s bets. Unfortunately the blog went up just last night after Pricewise (Tom Segal) put up his selections which included Double Shuffle in the last. Consequently the odds weren’t around for long on that. The 9/2 on Altior has gone but I’m surprised to see that Polly Peachum has gone out to 15/2 with some firms (giving 15/8 on the place despite that being no higher than 11/8 on exchange place only markets). This is largely due to strong support for the favourite Vroum Vroum Mag.
In the 2.50 Out Sam has hit the desired 8/1 price with a few firms and with 5 places available that is now an extra bet for the blog.
Recommendation
1pt ew OUT SAM @8/1 1/4 12345 (Bet 365, Bet Victor)
Day 1 selections summary
2pts ew ALTIOR @9/2
1pt ew OUT SAM @8/1
1.5 pts ew THE NEW ONE @6/1
1.5 pts ew POLLY PEACHUM @13/2 (15/2 now available)
1 pt ew DOUBLE SHUFFLE @11/1
Total stakes on day 14 pts
Wednesday preview will be online this evening – hopefully before the Pricewise beast is unleashed this time!
The blog has had to take a lengthy holiday due to work commitments but is back for the big week of the year – the Cheltenham Festival – where it’s had most success over the past couple of years.
I’ll put up some quick previews for each day the night before – starting on Monday.
Here are my early thoughts on some of the selections I am already with over the 4 day period.
I won’t put up a staking plan on these today – merely selections. In many cases, I think there may be more value to be had on the day when prices and place terms are often more enhanced. Generally speaking if a horse is 4/1 or more and ¼ odds 123 or more are available I will probably be playing each way – less than 4/1 and it’ll be win only (there will always be a few exceptions but I will detail those if we come to them)
The ones listed below are the ones I’d be more inclined to be using for angles in multiple bets (doubles, trebles,etc).over the week ahead. A staking plan will be added to the daily blog to analyse profit/loss over the 4 days.
Do always check the place terms if betting now – ¼ odds a place should be widely available next week on most races. Some bookies have already reduced the riskier each way races to 1/5th odds. This makes mathematical sense but it would be no surprise to see them revert next week to be more competitive and lure in more bets.
Onto the week ahead and the early selections….
Ground will hold sway on some of these. At the moment the course is reported as soft but with drying conditions likely over the next few days I’m largely assuming the ground will be good to soft on Tuesday with prospect of it getting better still as the week progresses.
TUESDAY (48 hour declarations due out later today which may cause market movements)
1.30 Supreme Novices A lot of ups and downs in the market here recently with doubt concerning the participation of Yorkhill. Right now it looks like he will be running in Wednesday’s Neptune instead. Willie Mullins/Rich Ricci have won this with favourites Vautour and Douvan for the past two years and Min is a shorter price currently than both of those two. That doesn’t mean he is as good and on what he has achieved he is too short. He is a free going sort who has won his races easily so far this season but beaten nothing of the calibre he meets here. The preliminaries are a concern to connections. I’m much more taken by second fav Altior, who has also displayed keenness in his racing earlier this season but still found plenty of reserves to win his first couple of races. He has winning form on the course – it wasn’t impressive in beating Maputo but that was a very tactical and slow run race. He was much better of a better pace at Kempton over Christmas. I feel he will thrive here off a strong gallop and with the uphill finish and he should be favourite. He probably wouldn’t want to ground too soft but as long as it dries out as expected I’ll be cheering him on
Stablemate Buveur D’Air hasn’t faced any strong opposition this season. He has closely matched form with Altior in bumpers last season but that’s hard to take at face value now. He appeared then as a strong travelling type who didn’t finish of his races quite as well as others and I wonder whether the hill might find him out here. He may prefer the ground to stay soft also Supasundae has been well talked up at preview nights as an each way bet. Henry de Bromhead doesn’t waste his runners here but this one has to improve his jumping and didn’t get home up the hill in the Bumper here last season after running freely early on. At a Dublin preview on Thursday, Gordon Elliott was asked if punters should back his Tombstone each way for this race. He replied ‘no’ which doesn’t augur well for that one’s chances! Selection : ALTIOR ew at 4/1 or better with ¼ odds 123
2.50 Ultima Hcap This seems to be the desired race for Warren Greatrex’s Out Sam who has somehow got into the Festival with a mark of 139. The form of his last comfortable win at Newbury makes that mark stand out as being highly lenient and if 8/1 is available still it’s hard not to have some interest. This race will be completely different – a big field racing against seasoned handicappers rather than novices. However this race often favours both novices and light weights (he should be carrying 10st 2lbs if weights don’t rise) Southfield Theatre would be of interest at a bigger price given his previous Festival record. He hasn’t shown much this season but needs decent ground to show his best. The vibes from Ditcheat are that he is coming back to form but I’m not sure if the ground will have dried up for him sufficiently by Tuesday. Selection; OUT SAM ew at 8/1
3.30 CHAMPION HURDLE A wide open race since the defection of Faugheen and Arctic Fire. Annie Power is too short a price for me considering her original aim was the Mares Hurdle and she has come in as a late replacement for Faugheen’s owner Rich Ricci. She looked a possible runner two years ago but was diverted to the World Hurdle instead. When it looked likely she would run in the Champion she was no shorter than The New One and My Tent or Yours. There’s no evidence she has progressed since so the disparity in odds against those two is a little strange to me. My Tent or Yours probably has the most talent but hasn’t run for a long time and that’s a major concern for a horse who has had a problem settling. Twice he has finished second at the Festival after his early exertions have left him vulnerable to a stronger stayer up the hill. The New One appeals most at current prices. He wasn’t suited by a tactical pace last year and had an interrupted preparation. The year before he was an unlucky loser after being badly hampered early in the race. He is effective on the course though – the way he accelerated up the hill to win the Neptune in 2013 shouldn’t be forgotten. Jumping has always been a bit of an issue with this horse but he can really come up this hill well and this is the easiest opportunity to win a Champion Hurdle he will ever get. (Nice pointer for the form of the stable with Flying Angel winning the Imperial Cup yesterday) Nichols Canyon probably has the best form this year and he could get an easy lead up front (Camping Ground the only other possible front runner by my reckoning). I’m not convinced he acted on the course here last year though and wonder if he needs a flatter track as his form at Aintree afterwards looked much better. At bigger odds, I much prefer Old Guard who has improved a lot this year and has plenty of winning course form. The better the ground is the more I give him a chance. I wouldn’t take his Kempton form literally – wrong track and ground too soft. He holds Sempre Medici and Hargam on earlier Cheltenham form. An issue developed here at the Sandown Park preview last night when trainer Paul Nicholls said his latest piece of work had been ‘dire’. I was going to add him as a second selection but best to wait for further news emanating on his well-being for now Sempre Medici has been put up as an each way bet by several judges at preview meetings. It seems he may be ridden quietly out the back and aiming for a place more than a win. Similar types have been placed before so it wouldn’t be the biggest shock for him to hit the frame Selection: THE NEW ONE ew at 6/1 or better
***Sunday evening update – Old Guard withdrawn from race due to muscle problem***
4.10 Mares Hurdle Team Mullins has had a stranglehold on this race for several years. Vroum Vroum Mag is their short priced favourite this time. She’s won a lot of mares races very easily but for me has yet to do anything to suggest that she is a 160 type of horse as her price suggests – her actual rating is 154 and not that far ahead of anything else in the race ( no course form for her either) I much prefer another Henderson second fav, Polly Peachum, who looks a really solid each way at around 6/1 The more the ground dries out the better for her and she was narrowly beaten in this race last year when rated 155 (now dropped to 149). The ground was far too soft for her when she still managed to beat The Govaness at Sandown (latter an obvious non stayer behind Vroum Vroum Mag at Ascot so wouldn’t be taking that as a collateral form line). She is capable of a higher level than that and is proven over the course There wouldn’t be much to choose between Polly Peachum and Bitofapuzzle on last year’s form but the latter (if she runs) comes here from a couple of disappointing chasing efforts and apparently has had breathing problems. The selection goes off to the paddocks after this race so am very hopeful she can end her jumping career on a high. Selection: POLLY PEACHUM ew at 6/1 with ¼ odds 123
WEDNESDAY
1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle I haven’t seen a better novice hurdler than Yanworth this season. He’s not a great price now but will be shocked if he is beaten such has been his superiority against decent opposition in his last two victories. Earlier in the season his jumping technique was in need of polishing up but the work on that seems to have paid off and I can’t find any negatives. One of the weeks bankers Selection; YANWORTH win
4.50 Fred Winter Hurdle There seem to be a lot of potential plots here in this competitive handicap for 4yo hurdlers. The handicapper might have scuppered the chances of Campeador who was an early talking horse. I attended a preview in Dublin on Thursday where there were subtle hints that Missy Tata was well fancied before Gordon Elliott put her up as his charity bet. The one I most want to be with though is Paul Nicholls’ Diego du Charmil who there has been a strong whisper for over the last couple of weeks and is now fav. This race used to have a strong stat favouring highly rated flat horses but things have changed a little in the last couple of years with Nicholls having success with unexposed French breds like this one. He has supposedly been doing very well on the gallops with much higher rated types and has been saved for this. He could be very well in here – it’s hard to judge him on his French form but his second in this race linked below looks to show a horse that had plenty more to offer….
There are a couple of others at much bigger odds I also have my eye on but will wait until the day for those. For now the selection is DIEGO DU CHARMIL ew 7/1 or better
THURSDAY
Not looking the strongest of the four days for me and will largely leave this until the night before THISTLECRACK has very little negatives in the World Hurdle at 3.30 except a very small concern if the ground has become good by that time. He should be odds on and would be if he were trained by someone like Mullins. In the new Mares Novice Hurdle at 4.50, SMART TALK appears a solid ew proposition. She’s improving with every race and would have won with a lot more in hand last time but for a blunder in the home straight. She could be up against a very classy recruit in short priced favourite Limini but that one does have some questions to answer with her jumping. Her flat race class could carry her through but I’d be surprised if Smart Talk was out of the frame so an each way bet appears far better value
***Sunday evening update. 3rd fav Myska withdrawn from Mares Novice Hurdle. 6/1 really shouldn’t be lasting on Smart Talk now if 1/4 odds 123 are available, An each way bet becomes even better value if you can get those odds and place terms***
FRIDAY
1.30 Triumph Hurdle I believe the strongest trial for this may have been run over this course in January event though it probably didn’t throw up the right result at the time. Who Dares Wins and Clan Des Obeaux finished 4th and 2nd respectively (behind Protek Des Flos) but these two started racing each other a very long way out on some very sticky ground. They paid for those efforts up the hill but in so doing kept themselves at attractive odds. If the ground were soft on Friday I’d be inclined to be with Clan Des Obeaux who has the look of a future high class chaser. However, with conditions likely to be quicker, I have to be with Alan King’s Who Dares Wins. He was too keen early on in that Cheltenham race and had to make the running. He still came out as marginally the best horse in the race as was giving away weight all round. On better ground and with a faster pace to come off, this decent ex-Flat racer should be a much better proposition.
It seems possible that Richard Johnson will ride given comments at Sandown last night. Alan King knows how to win this race and I think he will be the stable’s number one here on better ground over Sceau Royal. Zubayr has to be feared after his win at Kempton recently – the same route taken by recent winners Zarkandar and Soldatino. He appeals more than Ivanovich Gorbatov who didn’t jump well enough last time at Leopardstown and is an awful price on that form Selection; WHO DARES WINS ew 12/1 or better
3.30 Gold Cup The highlight of the Festival and I think Kempton’s King George result is by far the strongest piece of form to go on here. It’s debatable whether Don Cossack would have won that day if he had stayed up at the second last but I do question his effectiveness over this course given his previous record here (3rd and fell) That leaves Vautour and Cue Card. Vautour was outstayed that day but is expected to be fitter this time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win but reports of a lack lustre gallop recently aren’t encouraging. The stamina question over further and with an uphill finish to contend with remain. On the plus side it’s hard to forget how he came right at the Festival last year with a spectacular win in the JLT. I’m firmly in the Cue Card camp for this race to pick up a fairytale win and secure a £1 million bonus fund in the process. Given his breeding (dam Wicked Crack as a very good stayer) it was always a surprise to see him display so much speed when he burst onto the Festival scene winning the Bumper in 2010. He was one of the stars to develop from a stellar year of novice hurdlers in 2011 and got another Festival success in the 2013 Ryanair. He is a proven Festival performer.
Cue Card lost his way last year but after a breathing operation has come back a completely revitalised horse. He no longer runs freely out at front and can be settled comfortably off the pace – he now looks the stayer his breeding promised him to be. In Paddy Brennan he has found a new partner and they look to be a match made in heaven. His Kempton win proved he was back at the top of his game but I believe he can be better than that. His jumping there wasn’t as good as it can be and all of his best form has been on left handed courses like Cheltenham I’m taking him to beat off a strong Irish challenger. Don Poli is some way behind these on form but is a bit deceiving as he is the sort who keeps on winning by doing just enough. That is an admirable trait but I think he may lack some pace against others here on what is likely to be decent ground on Friday. In much softer conditions, he would be one to fear more
Selection; CUE CARD ew 5/1 or better
The blog will be back during the week with updates and quick race-by-race synopsis
Thanks for reading and good luck to all over the week ahead with whatever you back
Paul
(comments always appreciated)
Some useful links
To compare odds with all firms I use (though check individual websites as changes don’t always come instantaneously) http://www.oddschecker.com
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thefinalfence 