Onto the final day’s action and as I start to write my preview tomorrow it is a key topic in British conversations that is at the forefront of my mind – the weather!
We‘ve had two days of Good ground action but it is currently starting to rain at the track and there are varying expectations of how much will fall in the next 24 hours. It seems to be windy as well which can also have a drying effect to make predictions even harder
The ground can be such a factor here that a significant change in it can throw completely different results. Please bear this in my mind with what I have written below.
With all that in mind here we go for the final day of action on Gold Cup day…
1.20 JCB Triumph Hurdle
Last year Willie Mullins ran no less than 11 of the 17 runners – and won this with a 100/1 outsider. It brought back memories of this race last century when shock winners were commonplace. Some changes made after last year mean that hurdling debutantes can no longer run – and this time the Mullins team can only run nine horses J
Stable jockey Paul Townend has chosen to ride Selma De Vary from a choice of 8 (Proactif naturally is ridden by his owner’s retained rider Mark Walsh). She ran an eyecatching race on here Irish debut to be second to what would have been the hot favourite for this – Narciso Has – before injury took him out of the race.
The issue with her and so many others in this race is that all their form comes from soft/heavy winter ground.
Mon Creuset from the Mullins also deserves a mention as his ante post price tumbled after some positive comments from the trainer last week.
You would need some info from the Closutton yard to feel confident as to merits of this lot though as there is no collateral form on decent ground to work from. Minella Academy has been held back since November and his pedigree suggests that may be to avoid the winter ground. He is interesting with Danny Mullins riding – that suggests he is higher up in the stable pecking order
Scottish trained Minella Study does have course winning form and is proven on decent ground so might be the ‘safe option’. His defeat of Winston Junior last time was franked by that one’s run here on Tuesday.
Maestro Conti also has course winning form and did win on good going at Kempton. He is another strong contender for the home side.
Highland Crystal’s defeat of Saratoga (giving him weight) last time out also got a big boost on Tuesday. She is another whose form is all on soft though.
Of the outsiders, North Shore, has French form suggesting that better ground might suit than he has faced in Ireland so far.
I wouldn’t be surprised for another shock result in this race given the likely conditions
It’s good to see 4 places offered here by many – something that would have been common in years past. Also worth noting that Hills pay one quarter the odds on that rather than others who pay one fifth
SELECTIONS : Not really a big betting event for me but the two selections I have are for bigger prices who I feel will be more ground suited that others if it stays around Good ground – Minella Academy and North Shore – each way with firms who offer 4 places.
If the rain does come in hard and the ground does become soft then earlier form it will change things and I’d be veering more towards Selma De Vary after all the promise she showed ion her debut
******
2.00 William Hill County Handicap Hurdle
I had a fancy for this race but he didn’t make the cut and now I find it a bit too too hard. Dan Skelton’s runners are always worth a second look and it’s notable he has pitched Sinnatra in deep here for a novice hurdler. Don’t be misled that Harry Skelton rides him and not the other stable runner Tellherthename as that one has Kielan Woods as a retained rider.
The latter could be well handicapped on his best form and this is his first run for the Skelton stable. He didn’t give the impression he liked the track on his only Festival performance though which just puts me off him.
Selection is SECRET SQUIRREL who ran very well after a long break behind Alexei (who ran a great race in the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday). He doesn’t have course experience but he has threatened to win a big handicap in the past. Good to soft conditions are probably ideal for this flashy chestnut who would probably easily win the beauty contest if there was one today
*****
2.40 Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase
Dinoblue is the highest rated runner here at 159 and won this race easily last year.
The previous year she was beaten when Limerick Lace pressed on early to utilise here proven stamina (and exploit the possible weakness of Dinoblue)
That’s essentially what will be needed here to beat the favourite but who will press on early to make this a stamina test?
Panic Attack is in terrific form this season – it’s very rare to see a mare reaching here peak at the age of 10 but she has done it in spades. She hasn’t been running from the front though and I would imagine Harry Skelton would like some help to make use of her stamina.
Telepathique does like to race up front and may help but the obvious pace setter who needs to press on is Dinoblue’s stablemate, Spindleberry. Will the stable be happy using her as a spoiler for the favourite though? It is a debatable point for me even though the two are in different ownership. I do hope Paul Townend is allowed to press on as this will make for a better race.
Diva Luna looked like chasing was made for her when she moved up from hurdles at the start of the season. This is quite a jump in class though – she may be up to it – but it’s nearly 3 months since here last run after she met a setback. That has to be against here
Conclusion; It’s not a betting medium for me but Dinoblue is the likeliest winner…but if Spindleberry does make this a good gallop I think it may suit Panic Attack most and she could outstay the favourite
*****
3.20 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle
Any rain that gets into ground may turn this race into the war of attrition it can often be.
Doctor Steinberg is 7lb or more higher rated than anything else in this field but he is a free going sort and there might be some concern he’ll last home if it turns into a slog.
Thedeviluno showed improved form when stepped up to this trip at Doncaster and is a valid contender. He was given a patient ride there and we can expect similar here with him creeping into contention before the final uphill charge. (worth bearing in mind that so far this week we haven’t seen many winners who have come from the back of the field as I expect him to be ridden – but that could change if rain softens the ground)
If the ground stays decent I have to give a big shout to the favourite’s stablemate Hipop De Loire. He doesn’t have much experience over hurdles but he is a listed class flat perfomer who has run well in the last two Ebor Handicaps on the flat. Harry Cobden is a good booking for him and I can see him travelling very well in this race as long as the ground doesn’t get too soft.
If the rain does get in then I’m looking for something who will want every yard of this 3 mile trip…and a bit more. Henry De Bromhead has won this before with Minella Indo and his Kings Bucks looks for all the world like he needs 3 miles to me. I’m expecting to see a good bit of improvement on what we’ve seen so far
Two bigger priced selections here to cover all ground possibilities:
Hipop De Loire (wont want excessive rain) and Kings Bucks (who won’t mind any softening in the ground). The latter was available around 20/1 yesterday but can see he has been backed and a max of 16/1 currently
*******
4.00 Gold Cup
The centrepiece event of the meeting is a tricky one to decipher with only 4 pounds covering the marks of the top 6 contenders.
Last year’s impressive winner Inotherwayurthinkin has the highest mark of 170 but his form this year has been underwhelming to put it mildly. He would be the one to beat if reproducing form from 12 months ago but you need to have a lot of faith in connections reports that he is coming back to his best.
Disputing favouritism are The Jukebox Man, Gaelic Warrior and Jango Baie – the 1st 2nd and 4th in the King George Chase at Kempton where only half a length separated them in the race of the season.
That is the complete opposite of this track but all of them have performed well here in the past.
The Jukebox Man may well be the most popular winner with Harry Redknapp owning him. He looked likely to win the Albert Bartlett here 2 years ago until the final hill just caught him out close home. That might be a concern here too for this exuberant traveller but he is older and stronger which may help.
Jango Baie and Gaelic Warrior are both past winners of the 2 mile Arkle Chase. They both won that by stamina but this is more than a mile further. They both look like stayers but remain unproven. Some horses who have been placed in the Arkle have won this race before but it is actually 1979 when Alverton was the last horse to complete this double.
Jango Baie looked to love the hill when he won the Arkle here last year and if he does stay he’ll be dangerous to all if bang there on the home turn. Gaelic Warrior has often looked like he preferred a right handed track (should have been in his element at Kempton) but his win over 3 miles at Aintree last year goes quite some way to give encouragement that he won’t be so inconveniended on a left hand track nowadays (Grey Dawning outstayed by him there)
Grey Dawning has winning form at this course over shorter. I’m not totally convinced that this is his track – flatter tracks like Haydock and Aintree may suit better. His trainer Dan Skelton seems very upbeat that he has never been better
Then we have the horse with no stamina problems who will benefit most from any rain that gets into the ground – Haiti Couleurs. He reminds me very much of 2018 winner Native River in his running style (and also 2015 winner Coneygree). As they did, he is likely to pressing for home from some way out and his bold jumping will try to put the rest to the sword.
The ground was on the soft side when Native River won and that’s what Haiti Couleurs needs to win this. When Native River tried the same tactics on decent ground he hasn’t able to put the same pressure on the rest and he was outspeeded.
Therefore it’s the ground that affects my choice here.
Selection – well this is a tough one as the weather could be crucial!
If it’s soft I expect Haiti Couleurs to go very close
If the rain doesn’t get in so much I think the King George form will come out best – but find it very hard to come down on the side of The Jukebox Man, Gaelic Warrior or Jango Baie
This may seem like sitting on the fence a bit but there are some fine margins here and it may come down to who gets the run of the race and doesn’t make mistakes
******
4.40 Princess Royal Challenge Cup Hunters Chase
As mentioned in previous years I don’t follow the point to point scene to the degree that’s needed to have much a view here. Wonderwall won it last year and renews rivalry with the next 5 who followed him home (Its On the Line, Willitgoahead, Music Drive, Shearer and Carnfunnock).
New to this sphere are previously very useful chasers Chemical Energy, Panda Boy and Stattler (Patrick Mullins renews the ride on the horse that won the 2022 National Hunt Chase here)
Rather than give a selection I’d rather defer to someone who follows the PTP scene far more and the best man for that on X is usually @DarranPearce
******
5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
The final ‘getting out race’ is always very competitive
Gordon Elliott is always keen to win this race as it’s named after the trainer he spent his early days with. He hasn’t had a winner at this meeting yet and last year he left it to this race to get off the mark. We have to respect his runners – I feel that Wendrock could be the one that has been kept fresh for it most.
Willie Mullins often fields something that’s better than its mark here (Galopin Des Champs won it once before his Gold Cup winning exploits). Kel Histoire, Roc Dino and Jump Allen all haven’t been missed at single figure odds with that in mind.
Act of Authority ran a great race to be second in this (Lewis Saunders rides again) off only a 1lb lower mark. That augurs well although his form this season doesn’t suggest he has progressed. Cheekpieces are added first time here though – it could bring out some improvement?
At bigger odds though, I’m siding with Andashan at around 20/1. He has no prioer course form but is an improving type. I liked the way he buckled down to win at Newbury last time where he gave the impression that a stiffer course and strong gallop would eke out more progress – he’ll get that here. Prior to that he ran into Kabral Du Mathan in a handicap – hindsight shows he was up against the impossible there – and that one’s performance in the Stayers Hurdle today may emphasis that even more.
Trainer’s son Freddie Gordon can’t keep the regular ride this time as he has been claimed for East India Express (he is contracted to the Hendeson team). The booking of Dylan Johnston instead is hardly a downgrade though – Dylan is stable jockey to the Sam Thomas team and would be arguably the most successful jockey riding in this field.
Recommendation
Hopefully there is something in the bank by this race and it’s not about chasing losses
1pt ew Andashan (hopefully using a firm that offers 6 places and taking something close to 20/1)
That completes my annual ‘labour of love’ on previewing the Cheltenham Festival
I hope it’s been an enjoyable read for those following this week and there has been some profit at the end of it all!
Hello again to all past and new readers of my annual blog
Some thoughts below for Day 3. As I write Day 2 has yet to begin and I’m hoping for a better day than the opener. Sadly it seems JP McManus wasn’t reading this blog and didn’t get in touch to give me the lowdown on the birthday winner he had!
Ground on Tuesday looked to be more like Good than Good to Soft. A lot of form coming into this meeting will be soft ground based so if conditions continue we may see some form turnarounds. Some watering will be occurring to try and make it less of a bias
A new spot in the schedule for this race now sees it opening the Thursday card. It’s the 11th renewal of this race and early on it was the preserve of the Willie Mullins stable who won the first 5 runnings. That last five have gone elsewhere with the De Bromhead stable taking it twice.
Mullins will try to restore his name to the crown with hot favourite Bambino Fever who won last year’s Festival Bumper. Her hurdling form this season hasn’t seen her enhance her reputation too much though. She was turned over at odds of 1-4 by the reopposing Oldschool Outlaw first time out (said to be needing the run badly) and then beat nothing of note next time out. It’s interesting she wears a tongue tie for the first time here indicating there may have been an issue with her before
Oldschool Outlaw is here main opponent in the betting here and has stepped up on her bumper form to be unbeaten in three races this season. She is unproven on this course.
She easily beat another Mullins re-opposer in Place de la Nation last time over a longer trip on heavy ground. Place de la Nation is an interesting runner here though as she returns to the track/distance where she ran a great race to be 5th in the Triumph Hurdle last year. She may well improve significantly on this better ground (and she is owned by the race sponsor). The booking of Danny Gilligan to ride here (only ridden twice for Mullins) rather than one of the stables regular riders is a slight concern though
Carrigmoorna Spruce and La Conquiere were other useful Bumper performers last year who have translated their form well to hurdles. La Conquiere does look like more of a speedy type to me though and I’m not sure the uphill finish here is ideal.
We must also give plenty of respect to the De Bromhead mares, Echoing Silence and Full of Life, given he has won this race twice recently. The latter beat Carrigmoorna Spruce last time and has plenty of good ground form which is an asset here
Kingston Queen is also worth a mention as she was backed to beat Supreme winner Old Park Star here earlier in the year. It’s no surprise now that she was easily beaten but she won’t have the same calibre to face here but may need further (she wears cheekpieces for first time to help with the shorter distance)
There is a lot of softer ground form coming into this but if conditions stay as they are I can see some form reversals
Conclusion: Unless No Drama This End does well In Tuesday’s opener I’m still really looking for something to back up the form of last years Festival Bumper. She is a bit too short for me.
A few firms offer 4 places here so would look to them for each way value with two horses around the 25/1 mark who I feel will like a well run race on this ground
0.5 pts ew each KINGSTON QUEEN and FULL OF LIFE (with firms offering 4 places which would be crucial in such a competitive looking race at 25/1 or more ideally)
******
2.00 Jack Richards Novices Limited Hcap Chase
Paul Nicholls struck gold for the first time in a handicap for several years when Caldwell Potter won this last year. There will be parallels drawn to his runner Regents Stroll this year. Both were classy hurdlers who hadn’t quite realised their full potential over chases coming into this. Quebecois went close for the stable on Tuesday to give confidence in the stable form
A similar profile could be said to come from Slade Steel who won the Supreme Novices Hurdle here in 2024. His chasing career hasn’t quite progressed as expected which his why his mark has now dropped a bit to 145. There are a lot of second places on his scoresheet recently but if things fall right he has the ability to be dangerous to all.
Sixmilebridge has course winning form and has performed at a level better than a handicapper this season. He runs here instead of Graded races as this is his ideal distance. What may not be ideal for him though is not to be encountering his favoured soft ground.
Jordans Cross has won here this season and may also have beaten Kdeux Saint Fray here but for a late fall. He has paid for his good form this season with an increased mark.
Meetmebythesea, is probably the most unexposed and looked to be hating the heavy ground at Newbury last time. I can easily excuse that run. This longer trip promises to suit
Wingmen has the ability to be better than his mark of 142 but I’m not sure this track suits him based on his two previous efforts here. Stencil was favourite for the Fred Winter here last year but disappointed. He is another to consider. He has often looked like he has more to offer but his mark is still steadily increasing without having achieved the big win that he has threatened to in the past
Selection
This is a tough call but I give marginal preference to SLADE STEEL to finally get his head in front as a chaser. He has been a little unlucky not to win so far but this drop down in trip from 3 miles may help his cause. Not a race to get to heavily involved in though for me
*******
2.40 Close Brothers Mares Hurdle
This used to be the follow up race to the Champion Hurdle on Tuesday. As it has moved to Thursday that now means it is being run over the New Course for the first time (Old Course used on Tues and Weds is a bit less demanding of stamina).
It’s a controversial race already but even moreso now with the best 3 mares in training all running in the Champion Hurdle. In the past some have dodged the Champion for easier pickings here. The result is that one or both of the races have become diluted in quality.
This year it’s this race that has come off far worse and although it is a Grade 1 race it really is a Grade 2 in disguise. The answer for me has always been to move this race to another meeting where top mares can run in both…but that’s a topic for another day.
We are left with 7 runners including last years 2nd, 3rd and 4th (Jade De Grugy, Take No Chances and Jetara).
Favourite however is Wodhooh, who did win another handicap at the Festival and gave last year’s victor, Lossiemouth, a scare in another Grade 1 at Liverpool.
She has the best form and has course winning form. She is clearly the one to beat but she is odds on now and hardly screaming value.
Jade De Grugy led them at a relatively slow pace last year and was in prime position to secure her good postion. We may get a similar scenario here although outsider Dream on Baby does give another possibility of adding some pace to this race.
If there were 8 runners, then I’d be nominating Take No Chances as the each way pick. She wasn’t helped by the pace last year – so she could get caught again – but the stiffer course this time will suit her. However, with only 7 runners and only 2 places she isn’t so attractive
It’s a no bet race for me now. Selection would have to be Wodhooh to win but she is too short a price for me in what could be a tactical affair.
******
3.20 Paddy Power Stayers Hurdle
For the stayers title we have the winners of the last two renewals – Teahupoo and Bob Olinger – facing off some young improvers in Honesty Policy, Ma Shantou and Kabral Du Mathan. If Impose Toi hadn’t come up short on soft ground last time he’d a big contender too…and they we have the former top novice Ballyburn who seems to be struggling to find his ideal trip nowadays. This is a competitive race.
A big factor for me will be the pace of the race. Only Hewick has really raced from the front before – and he doesn’t do that so much in his later years. Last year the outsider Gowel Road helped to give some pace angle to the race – he isnt here to fulfil that role this time
Likely favourite Teahupoo shouldn’t be suited by a sprint so may have to make his move early to draw some sting out of others. He was left vulnerable to the finishing kick of Bob Olinger last year and that one will want to arrive late again ( he may be 11 years old now but still looked in form last time and he is unbeaten in 4 runs at this track)
Teahupoo and Bob Olinger (1) battling it out for the same owner in last years race
If they do go slow then the biggest benefactor should be Kabral Du Mathan though. He has improved dramatically for Dan Skelton this season improving his mark by 15 lbs…and he may not have reached his ceiling yet. He is yet to race over 3 miles and a searching stamina test would not be ideal…but with decent ground and no great pace he could be in his element here
I can make a case for many in this field so it’s another that a struggle to make a bet recommendation for.
CONCLUSION
The slower the pace is the more it should favour Kabral Du Mathan but despite his age my selection would be BOB OLINGER given his course record here. I notice a couple of firms offer 4 places for each way bettors. I can see a similar race developing to last year which should favour his running style and unlike Kabral his stamina is proven
******
4.00 Ryanair Chase
Fact to File dominated this race last year and having been diverted from the Gold Cup again I find him difficult to oppose. His price won’t make anyone rich though.
I didn’t expect 9 runners in this with Jonbon and Impaire et Passe looking more likely to wait for Aintree.
Heart Wood was 2nd last year but has 9 lengths to make up and may prefer a softer surface. Banbridge will like the decent ground but has twice disappointed at the last two festivals (even allowing for the fact that ground may have been softer than ideal I expected better from him). It could be his King George win last year took something out of him whe he ran here…this year he put it all in again for that race when getting narrowly beaten. Fact to File was beaten there but I can’t believe that race showed him in his true light
Of the outsiders, I could see JPR One running well at a big price now that he has proven himself at this longer trip. He should get the decent ground he needs to show his best
They should all be playing for places though if Fact to File turns up at 100% so he has to be the selection (but not a bet at odds on)
******
4.40 Pertemps Final Hcap Hurdle
This is another race where I made my main view clear on X a couple of weeks ago
Nicky Henderson has a very good record in this race for each way bettors. He supplied the first and second last year. Bold Endeavour did himself finish 4th at 50/1 in this race two years ago (James Bowen rode then and is on board again). That was on a much higher mark of 143 and carrying 11st 3lbs on ground that may have been softer than ideal.
He has dropped to 130 now and carrying much less weights of 10st 6lbs. That is due to him spending last season at another stable (Laura Morgan) where he seemed to lose his form. He came back to his old home where his only run at Huntingdon (where he qualified) was a clear indication that he still retained ability. He was bang in contention until fitness told but the qualification was secured.
I do like the Pertemps in relation to other handicap hurdles as runners have to be placed in qualifying races to get in. That means it’s much harder to get an unexposed young improver into the race off a favourable mark.
Therefore although Bold Endeavour is now 10 years old, that’s less of a concern with me here. Older horses have performed very well in this race before as it is more of a level playing field in my opinion.
We have a quite short priced favourite here in the Dan Skelton trained Supremely West. Books have sniffed a Skelton plot here for sometime since the qualifier here in October (Ma Shantou the inner and Electric Mason 2nd have both advertised the form a lot since). His next run at the track was…shall we say ’interesting’…and sparked the attention of the stewards (Kikijo won that but he’d seem to want softer ground than he’ll probably get here. There was a clear bias to the outside of the track but this 5/4 favourite was given little chance by racing on the deeper ground on the inside. That run wasn’t missed by many. His price is too low for me now though – and I think he ideally may want some soft in the ground. After the Skeltons had a similar short priced handicap favourite scoot in on Tuesday (Madara) I won’t be expecting much of an increase in value on his price now.
I did also like an outsider in Lihyan at a big price given the ground conditions. As things stand though he is a reserve and needs one horse to drop put. Chances are that won’t happen but if he does sneak in he deserves some consideration at a big price with 6 or more places (has good course form and the ground will be no problem)
Selection is BOLD ENDEAVOUR. However having already put him up on X when 25/1 was available then my recommended bet would have been back then. He is half that price now but still the one I like best
******
5.20 Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup
We invariably get a JP McManus horse teed up to win this race. Last year it was Johnnywho who looked all over the winner (won on Tuesday this year) but he was denied by Daily Present who comes back to defend his crown.
Jeriko Du Reponet was the talking horse for him this year after managing to creep his mark down to the magic 145 (that is the max allowed for this race). Money has also now come for his Waterford Whispers to confuse the situation a little more. This one has threatened to outperform in a big race for some time (was 2nd when the money did come down for him in Martin Pipe hurdle on Friday in 2024).
The jockey booking of Derek O’Connor would suggest Jeriko is the owner’s main hope but as saw in Tuesday’s Ultima (when his perceived number 3 hope Johnnywho won) that doesn’t mean the others are there to make up the numbers.
Kim Roque had several handicap entries but this one always looked to be his favoured one and this trip may suit and he has run well at this course before
I really liked The Enabler’s first chasing effort this season and had him marked down as one to follow. I didn’t expect him to be going up in trip though and would have been keener over shorter. The ground could help him though and he has one of the better amateurs on board. I might have had a small bet if he’s appeared at around 33/1 but 16/1 is less appealing
At a big price I’ll row in with Monbeg Genius here for a bit of value. His mark has dropped to now being only 1lb higher than his 3rd in the Ultima in 2023. That was a really strong race and his form has been patchy since. He’s had two runs at Aintree recently where the course didn’t suit but I think he has run well in other races despite not being placed.
His mark is getting attractive to me now and another 5lb can be taken off by his jockey who went close in last years Foxhunters on Willitgoahead. With the stable having a winner already at this meeting, I can see him being competitive here. Ideally good to soft ground would be what he wants so he’d appreciate any watering
Recommendation
0.5 pts ew Monbeg Genius 40/1 available currently with some firms is appealing
That’s a wrap on my thoughts for Thursday’s card. Hopefully some inspiration in there whilst doing your own studying.
Thanks for reading once again and good luck to all with whatever you end up supporting.
Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Tuesday and Wednesday thoughts
For any annual followers of my Cheltenham musings – welcome back!
As per usual, I’ll try to work through all races again highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll always have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself (if I can get on which is sometimes easier said than done with some firms). Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.
I’ve had to be less active on my social media accounts this winter (Winter Olympics has kept my compiling head too busy earlier this year) and there are very few early picks put up this year. It would be very hard to ever come close to matching last year’s ante post 100/1 winner in any case! I will try to put up any extra thoughts throughout the meeting on X or Blue Sky (account details at bottom of this post). (Vanillier in Wednesday’s Cross Country Chase and Bold Endeavour in Thursday’s Pertemps being the only two I’ve put up in advance on X recently – price of 25/1 now well gone on the latter)
I’m really pleased to see that Bryan Gault is still doing his excellent www.gaultstats.com site again this year. Once again I can thoroughly recommend for anyone looking to explore the statistical angles on Festival races. I’ve done pretty well following pointers from these in the past. There is little point for me going into them too deeply myself when they have been done so well by Bryan. Please don’t forget to donate though if you find this site useful.
Whilst stats are always in my thoughts, I don’t rely on them solely though. I do mix them in with what I’ve seen with my own eyes on previous form and from nearly 50 years of watching the Festival.
Note that there has been some tinkering with race schedules again this year. Some races have moved to different time slots and indeed different days from past meetings.
Centrepiece races remain at their new 4pm slot each day – an initiative that was brought in last year
Ground is looking fairly certain to start as Good to Soft at this stage. The lead up has been relatively dry and any Soft patches are likely to disappear. If the course continues to dry out we can expect some watering to try and maintain it at this kind of level. A course walk by Nicky Henderson on Sunday seemed to reveal it was more Good than Soft in many areas.
I will always be on the lookout for enhanced place terms throughout the 4 days which can add notable value to any bets. If there are regularly 3 places offered but firms offer 4 this can be a productive edge. It was disappointing to see so many big handicaps were missing 6 places offered last year though – something that had been common pre 2025. The standard terms for handicaps of 16 runners would be ¼ odds 1234. Getting 1/5th odds for 6 places can be quite an improvement on that for the right type of selection and I hope to see it again. However, the more standard variation of 1/5th odds for 5 places became more common last year and I’m not holding my breath. Whilst that might look good the difference between one quarter and one fifth of win odds doesn’t often make that much change in terms of value.
In the past couple of years I’ve tried to keep a track on how certain big trainers profit/loss records have looked over the handicaps. Each way is calculated on assumption that 6 places are paid in handicaps – which was very common until last year. There may be the odd 6th place here where they may not be paid out though
Over the past 6 years some prominent results are here. Main things to note would be the P/L sucess of Dan Skelton in handicaps (books are aware of this though and its factored into prices regularly); the consistent profit made by backing Nicky Henderson horses in hurdles handicaps; the lack of sucess backing Willie Mullins horses blind in hcaps (particularly chases)
For last year 2025 I also added Gavin Cromwell who is becoming more and more of one to watch at this meeting. Henry De Bromhead’s handicap runners are notable here. He didnt have any winners from his 7 handicap runners but 6 of them were placed
Another things that is different this year – and which the course kept quiet until the Sunday before – appeared recently.
This could be quite significant to some hurdle results. A longer run in with an uphill finish may make stamina more of an asset for one. The hurdle seems to have been moved to avoid a patch of false ground
I’m covering the first two days here where all declarations are now out
One thing to note immediately here is that the meeting start a little bit earlier in the year than usual on March 10th. This may be significant as it is the birthday of leading owner JP McManus and I wonder if some running plans have been altered to fit in with that. If you are reading JP – Happy 75th Birthday …..and please don’t forget to message to let me know who you are backing 😉
1.20 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle.
12 runners have been declared to face the Cheltenham roar in the traditional opener. It’s a strong looking field that has a more competitive look than a few recent renewals.
My thoughts on the main contenders in current market order.
OLD PARK STAR. Has been ante post favourite for a while. He wasn’t an obvious type for the race at the beginning of the season but marked himself down as a serious contender with an authoritative here (course form box ticked) before Christmas. He then impressed again when leading all the way and with some pinpoint jumping at Haydock. He deserves to be favourite but it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank when being taken on for the lead here
MIGHTY PARK. The hype contender this year from the Willie Mullins camp. His race target wasn’t clear until a few days ago when his price fell dramatically. His price is based on rumours that he is the next big star to come from the Mullins arsenal. You would have to be a firm follower of that hype to be backing him though at around 7/2. He has only won one weak hurdle race where he wasn’t challenged at all. He could be ‘the second coming’ but he has to prove his jumping here with top flight company around him in a pressure cooker atmosphere. I’d want much bigger odds to be at all interested
TALK THE TALK. Again he wasn’t a definite contender for this until confirmed at the final declarations despite his trainer being adamant this was the race he was aiming for. Could well have won both of the strongest trial races for this at Leopardstown but for an awkward fall over Christmas. Was given a bit of a careful ride to help his jumping issues last time out and did really well to make up ground and win from a slow pace. His jumping would remain a potential Achilles heel but that last run should have helped
EL CAIROS. An eyecatcher when 5th in last years Festival Bumper when he looked like he should have gone close to winning but for his amateur rider looking like he was doing his best to stay on board at the speed he was going. Subsequently sold for a big sum and he looked sure to win impressively first time out this year but for another final hurdle blip. Won a minor race easily since but again nearly messed it up at the final hurdle. His hurdling generally has looked slick but it’s just when quickening up and jumping that a weakness has been seen. Has recorded 38mph when in full charge this season – something beyond the others so far.
MYDADDYPADDY. Was all the rage for this before his bubble was blown by Idaho Sun at Aintree. That was the first time he had come off the bridle and he found a battle hardened rival too much (Idaho Sun sadly injured and not able to renew rivalry). It was still a good run and he isn’t out of this but his official mark is 12 lb less than Old Park Star’s
LEADER D’ALLIER. Mullins has another contender here with stable jockey Paul Townend on board (Townend can’t ride Mighty Park who has a retained jockey). His defeat by Ballyfad earlier this season gives him something to find with Talk the Talk though
SOBER GLORY. Has looked a really good horse in winning 7 of his 8 races. A disappointing defeat – with no real explanation behind it – at Sandown being his only blot. He likes to run from the front and doesn’t stop. I do worry a little however when I see all his form is at Newbury and Chepstow and hasn’t raced here. Some will point to the fact his last winning time at Newbury was 4 seconds quicker than Tutti Quanti’s win in the prestigious Tote Gold Trophy that day. We must bear in mind though that the weather was filthy that day and by the time the other race was run there had been a lot of rain at the track – conditions were probably not like-for-like. Soft ground does seem to be his preference and he’s not likley to get it here
BARON NOIR. Maybe a bit of an outsider at around 33/1 but he deserves mentioning. The novice hurdle he was 2nd in at Warwick was a very strong race in my opinion. He raced freely there and has done in other races but his talent has got him through. The stronger pace here should get him settled and we can see what he is made of. He was good enough to beat El Cairos in the big Punchestown bumper last season so we know the engine is there. I don’t think his mark of 130 really reflects his talent and there could well be a 140+ horse in there.
The other four runners – EACHTOTHEIROWN, KOKTAIL BRUT, SAGEBOROUGH and TOO BOSSY FOR US are all useful in their own right – but it would be a surprise for me to see any of them winning
CONCLUSION.
The likely pace of this race is the overriding factor for me. I think we can expect Old Park Star, Mighty Park and Sober Glory all wanting to go a good clip. They have all had uninterrupted leads before and may be in new territory here. If there are any flaws in Mighty Park’s hurdling the other two will soon exploit it. This pace should really suit something that can sit off it and challenge them late. I do favour Talk The Talk and El Cairos to do that ( though I am a little nervous about their hurdling once speed is increasing downhill). I have marginal preference for Talk the Talk as suspect he has more stamina than El Cairos when we are now faced with a longer uphill drag from the last (would favour the latter on a flatter track)
I also think Baron Noir won’t be far off them with a couple to jump and could be a potential surprise packet. A couple of firms who offer 4 places each way would be useful in that regard.
My selection therefore is Talk the Talk but for betting I’d suggest backing him in a different way
The two horses who are tied in with his form most both run for Gordon Elliott in Wednesdays Turners Hurdle. Skylight Hustle and Ballyfad will both surely shorten if Talk the Talk wins or goes close. This is therefore taking advantage of related options (you can’t back the same horse to win two races without getting a special reduced price – but you can back two related horse and get some value)
I also think that Baron Noir’s run gives a related option with Bossman Jack in the same race on Wednesday as they both come from the same Warwick race
The recommendations are
1pt ew double Talk The Talk + Skylight Hustle (1.20 Wednesday)
1pt ew double Talk the Talk + Ballyfad (1.20 Wednesday)
0.25 pt ew double Baron Noir + Bossman Jack (1.20 Wednesday)
(the last bet ideally with firms who offer 4 places each on this race)
*****
2.00 Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy
This race has been billed as a face-off between Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba for a long while and they have both made it here.
It didn’t always look likely for the former who won the Supreme last year. He’s had an interrupted preparation but connections sound bullish again now and he has moved into favouristism.
Lulamba was 2nd in last season’s Triumph Hurdle and has flourished as a chaser this season.
Kopek Des Bordes did look a serious horse over hurdles last year but missing his intended prep race puts me off having any strong view here.
His stablemate Kargese won at the Festival last year and did have her prep race at Leopardstown. That was a really strongly run event in deep ground though which she’ll be doing well to have not been left with a mark from.
I’m not sure Mambonumberfive will be suited by this course as he is such a big horse and has been kept to flat tracks so far. Steel Ally is a likely pace angle for this race but I’m also mindful that he is now 8 years old and has been kept away from this track so far in his career
I would have put up Jax Junior as the each way pick at a big price if there were 3 places available but not it’s down to 7 runners that option has gone. He has impressed me a lot in his last two wins but he will need to step up again to reach the level of the two favourites. He was running well in the Albert Bartlett here last year until stamina became a factor (no concern here over a much shorter trip).He’d be the one I’d be looking for in any markets offered without the two favourites
Selection; If pushed I’d veer towards the proven form of Lulamba this season. For betting I’d just be looking to find Jax Junior in a market without the two favs though
*****
2.40 McCoy Contractors Juvenile Hcap Hurdle
This did used to be the last race on the opening day but now moved forward.
There are lots of potential plots here and it’s unlikely I’ll be betting at current prices.
My old system of finding the best flat horse used to work well until French breds started to muddy the waters. There is no definitive stand out flat performer here but top weight Barbizon had the highest rating of 94 on the level (and at least gets 5lb claimed off his back here). Saratoga, Dignam, Winston Junior, Glen to Glen, Ammes and Munsif (current reserve…he may be out of race by Monday afternoon if nothing drops out) were all close behind him on flat ratings.
Of these Saratoga and Munsif were 2nd and 3rd in a recent Naas race that has always been a good pointer for this. (Munsif I suspect may well show improvement on the better ground here and with the ‘notoriety’ of his stable’s plots….I won’t say any more on that!)
Joseph O’Brien trained the winner last year and his Glen to Glen won the same prep race so must be a factor. I’d also then have to bring in Ole Ole who isn’t far behind him on form and comes from the stable that produced a 50/1 second last year.
Ammes, from the James Owen stable, has a very similar look to last season’s 3rd from the same stable. The booking of Sean Bowen is notable there
If you fancy him or Winston Junior (another I couldn’t put anyone off), note it also ties in with Minella Study’s chances in Fridays Triumph Hurdle. It’s worth considering some related doubles there as I mentioned for the first race with that in mind
It’s a difficult race. If pushed for a selection I might be veering towards Winston Junior or Ammes as I think the Irish runners haven’t been given the best of it by the UK handicapper
******
3.20 Trustmarque Ultima Hcap Chase
This race is an old favourite of mine as the stats tended to point me in the way of horses carrying less than 11 stones. That would take out the top 13 in the field for me right away but it has to be said that the skew towards lower weights it quite as dramatic as it once was.
At the top of the weights we do have some classy performers. I think Handstands could be the best but his only run at the course was a disappointing one and I have yet to be convinced this track will suit him
Top weight Iroko is the current favourite for the Grand National so I wonder if this is just a prep race and they will be leaving something to work on with Aintree in mind.
The Green and Gold colours of JP will also be worn by current favourite Jagwar. He is a big horse who will have no issues carrying 11st 9lbs and has winning course form. The downsides would be his low price of around 7/2 and the fact that his regular jockey is on Iroko (can understand why with Grand National in mind)
Myretown won this race impressively last year when he would have comfortable suited the low weight stats carrying just 10st 3lbs. His mark is 15 pounds higher now but he still gets in under 11 stones (showing that this is a better quality race). His old stablemate Corach rambler won back-to-back renewals which will make him popular. His failure to complte in two of his three races thios season is the undoubted negative,
I put up The Short Go each way in this race last year as he looked to be well suited to the course and he paid out place money. He would have been the main pick for me again until the UK handicapper dealt him a fair blow by putting him 6 lbs higher than last year. He has also had a wind op since his last run – we just don’t know if that will be a positive or negative though until he runs.
My main selection sits near the bottom of the handicap as I often like in this race.
Knight of Allen is actually having to carry 4lb more than he should be but for me he arguably achieved more than the mark of 131 he carries here when 4th against much higher rated rivals on his last venture at this course. He was running on well at the finish then and giving 5 pounds to 137 rated Califet En Vol who finished 5 lengths in front of him (and that one has since won a competitive Kempton handicap). The extra distance here ought to suit him and it’s noteworthy that the Williams family have won this race in the past with another 6 year old (Coo Star Sivola)
I’ve found Jane Williams quite a frustrating trainer to follow in the past but the addition of Ciaran Gethings as stable jockey this season has been a huge factor in seeing much better results. Ciaran should be riding at this lowest weight here. He ran well enough at Newbury over 3 mils last time but I doubt that heavy ground there was ideal (his brother Galahad Quest performed best on decent ground)
CONCLUSION
I wouldn’t put anyone off The Short Go each way with firms who offer 6 or 7 places but it would be more with the place side in mind (note from stats earlier that his trainer Henry De Bromhead had nearly every one of his horses placed here in handicaps last year)
Recommendation
The main bet though for me is 1pt ew KNIGHT OF ALLEN (25/1 available with Skybet whoi pay 7 places – would still happily take 22/1 with 6 places elsewhere)
*****
4.00 Unibet Champion Hurdle
The centrepiece event was a very successful one for me last year with Golden Ace backed ante post at 100/1.
She had luck on her side when State Man fell at the last but she also did well to avoid his fall and that of Constitution Hill earlier which slightly took her out of position.
She again got lauded as ‘lucky’ when she won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle earlier this season when The New Lion fell. To my eyes she may well have won that encounter anyway as The New Lion was going no better.
She beat Brighterdayshead in the Champion Hurdle last year and in the Mares Novice Hurdle the season. Supposedly the slow pace was against Elliott’s mare that time but it won’t have suited the Ace that much either. My inclination is more that this course isn’t ideal for Brighterdaysahead
In short I think Golden Ace remains a mare who has been underestimated throughout her career – even by the official handicapper who gives her a mark of 152….I would have her more like 156 or 157.
I think she will go close again but admit to be being very worried about the presence of Lossiemouth in this year’s race. The Mullins star mare has avoided this race for 2 years to plunder the Mares Hurdle instead and she has a 4/4 record at Cheltenham. Connections have always seemed more enthused about getting an obvious win than a probable win so that fact she runs here suggest they are happy. A longer trip may be her optimum but with the errant stablemate Anzadam in the field there is always the chance of pace being injected into this race. Cheekpieces have been applied this time to help her with this bigger test of speed. A slight concern may be if the ground continues to dry. She was badly tapped for toe at Kempton last season and good ground may not be ideal for her.
Patrick Mullins couldn’t control that one earlier this season at Leopardstown and we could see similar here. The addition of Tutti Quanti into the race would also seem to aid this race not being run at a crawl.
Both Tutti Quanti and Alexei are interesting outsiders who have elevated themselves to this level after impressive handicap wins earlier this season. I would have a small concern about their last runs being in bad ground in February though (particularly in the case of the latter who may have had an unnecessarily hard race at Wincanton)
CONCLUSION
I can’t not support Golden Ace each way at 9/1 or 10/1 as think she will be in the frame at least. She has done me proud here for the last two season and owes me nothing. I do fear Lossiemouth though so if a market ‘without Lossiemouth’ appears I’d become more interested. I do prefer Golden Ace to The New Lion and Brighterdayahead who are lower prices.
Recommendation
1pt ew Golden Ace (taking 9/1 or better if available)
******
4.40 Sun Racing Plate Hcap Chase
Not a handicap that excites me too much
Both Madara (looks a likely Dan Skelton targeted runner) and McLaurey (potential Emmet Mullins plot) are just priced too much in expectation of their runs at around 4/1 to interest me.
At a better price, Downmexicoway is unexposed at this trip and the De Bromhead stable did very well with placings in handicaps at this meeting last year (see my earlier table). I’m not sure he is hiding too much from a mark of 145 but he was given an easy time last time out when not getting involved in the pace war of the Irish Arkle principals
At bigger odds I’d just thrown in O’Moore Park at around 16/1 as better value. His last run wasn’t anything to write home about but he’s only a pound higher than when placed at 66/1 in the novices handicap last year. Decent ground and this course seem to bring out the best in him. Unlikely I’ll be betting though in this event.
Selections if pushed – Downmexicoway and O’Moore Park
******
5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap
This is the second year of this race being run as a handicap. Eveything went to plan when Haiti Coleurs dominated the race last year. This year there is no standout contender for me though. I had one fancy who declined to take join the field at the final stage
Winning connections from last year field Newton Tornado this time. But whilst Haiti won well on the course during his preps, Newton Tornado fell. He doesn’t give me the same feeling as an out and out galloper whose jumping will put the rest to the sword. In his defence, we must note that trainer Rebecca Curtis has a good record in handicaps from quite a small sample over the year
Backersackme is another likely plot horse. The combination of Emmet Mullins training and Paul Byrne owning will often have bookies running for cover and his price reflects that.
Wade Out is also well found in the market but he is a horse who really makes life hard for his jockey. Don’t be surprised to see him under hard driving from a long way out and then just plugging on through beaten horses. If you fancy his chances betting on the Exchange in running may give you a much bigger price.
Iceberg Theory (trainer knows how to lay one out for handicap here) and One Big Bang (3rd over a trip that was far too inadequate for him last time but may want softer ground) would be of more interest to me but I don’t feel strongly enough about either to get involved.
There are a lot of stamina questions to be answered in this race – and quite a few who like to front run. It should come down to who has the best stamina reserves in the final half mile
Selection if pushed would be Iceberg Theory
******************************
******
That’s Day 1 thoughts completed now onto Wednesday’s musings for Day 2…………
Hopefully there is some profit in the bank by now.
Note that as I write these declarations have only just come out. Markets may take some time to be updated and so revised odds may not be widespread until later on Monday afternoon
1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle
It’s 2017 since anything with a double figure price won this (Willoughby Court) and we have to go back to First Lieutenant in 2011 to find a winner who had a handicap mark of less than 146 winning.
That stat alone quickly whittles this down to three runners; Ballyfad (149), Skylight Hustle (148) and King Rasko Grey (148).
The main UK hope, No Drama This End comes in with a mark of 144. He might well be better than that but his most impressive performances have come of softer ground that what he may face here.
As mentioned already for the opening race on day 1, I’ve already given away my thoughts a little here in the expectation that Talk The Talk runs well there.
Ballyfad was just touched off by that horse last time and had King Rasko Grey just behind him.
Skylight Hustle was vying for the lead with Talk The Talk when that one fell in his previous race. There may not have been much between them.
It was always likely to be a tough choice to make for stable jockey Jack Kennedy here. Both Elliott horses have yet to perform at this trip over hurdles but both were ready winners of Point to Points over 3 miles to give encouragement that the extra distance will be in their favour. (Sir Gerhard a recent winner of this race came in with the same profile). He picked Ballyfad – but as that is owned by the stable’s main patron it could have some bearing. There may not be that much between them
As also noted from day one musings, if Baron Noir runs well it’s a pointer for Bossman Jack. He looked a work in progress on his hurdles debut at Warwick and has impressed in 2 wins since. Those wins aren’t at the level of this race and his handicap rating of 134 is somewhat shy of what would be required to win this. I am surprised that Dan Skelton hasn’t gone down the handicap route with that mark so his entry here is evident of the regard he is held in and the step up in trip should see more improvement.
Selections
Already covered in Race 1 synopsis from Day 1 – and hopefully there is money running onto Ballyfad, Skylight Hustle and/or Bossman Jack after that
******
2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
Possibly my biggest ante post interest here comes in the form of Wendigo who really caught my eye with his 3rd place at Kempton over Christmas. I have been backing this one at far bigger prices than what is available now but still think he is the most solid option.
It was fairly clear in that race that the track was too quick for him and he was on the backfoot from some way out but he stuck to it in such a way that I felt sure he would turn the form around with the winner (Kitzbuhel) back at this meeting. His run was very reminiscent of subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River’s effort back in 2015. There have been several beaten horses in that Feltham Chase that have come on to win this race (Bobs Worth immediately springing to mind)
Wendigo’s run in last season Albert Bartlett Hurdle also gives confidence that this track suits him. He was going very well there and looking likely to be a big contender until nearly taken out of the race by The Big Westerner before the home turn. He wouldn’t have won but I feel sure he would have been up with her for second if not for that incident. The Big Westerner would be a threat again but with her need for soft ground unlikely to be fulfilled her chance may diminish
At the time I was backing, Final Demand was a short priced favourite for this race. He has since disappointed in his prep race when beaten by Kaid d’Authie and Western Fold and the race does have more of an open look now. Final Demand may well bounce back from that but he does have something to prove at this course. His 3rd place in the Turners Hurdle last year was arguably his weakest hurdles performance and might indicate the track doesn’t suit him. Kaid d’Authie was also pulled up on his only start here so also has a course question to answer.
Western Fold was second in this race. He doesn’t have any experience on this course so that negative factor can’t be applied. He may improve for the better ground so rates a threat though whether he is as strong a stayer as my selection is debatable. He does hold another Irish challenger Oscars Brother on earlier form (that one may prefer softer ground)
Romeo Coolio was considered an unlikely contender for this race until very recently but once confirmed he became favourite. He has yet to race over this trip and he may well be suited by it in time but I can’t be enthused about his chances this time. He had a very hard race last time out in deep ground. That was his 4th race this season and the chances of it leaving a mark must be high. There is a strong sense that his presence here is more about the owner wanting a runner than the trainer wanting to run.
Recommendation
1.5 pts ew WENDIGO (hopefully there will be some firms offering 4 places on this – there should be with the number of runners left in the race)
*****
2.40 BetMGM Cup Hcap Hurdle
Firstly there is a bit of schadenfrude here that the arch plotter Charles Byrnes’s had had his second fancied handicap runner appear as a reserve. I Started A Joke – like Munsif – on Tuesday needs something to drop out to get a run. I could feel sorry for other connections but less so for this one!
It’s not a race that appeals to me much for betting at the moment and I’d want the 6 places to be offered at least for any each ways bets.
I’m naturally drawn to two stables from P/L stats
Nicky Henderson has done very well here in tha past and fields Lucky Place, Jingko Blue and Iberico Lord. Lucky Place has done well in this race before but he hasn’t looked the same horse since an unsuccessful chasing spell. Jingko Blue seems to be fancied by the stable if preview night chat can be believed but I’m struggling to warm to his chances based on his previous Festival effort. Iberico Lord may be the strongest of his runners having come back to form last time out and having winning form in the past on this course (albeit over a shorter trip)
Henry De Bromhead’s handicap record from last year has already been mentioned and he also fields three. Ballyadam was 3rd last year but he is now 11 years old and must be vulnerable off a high weight to younger improvers. Beckett Rock was also engaged in handicap chases at this meeting off a lower mark but it’s significant he turns up here where he was 6th last year. Stable jockey, Darragh O’Keeffe has picked Forty Coats however. His form this season isn’t enticing but it is notable that cheekpieces are added for the first time here. His stand out piece of form was his 4th in the Turners Novice Hurdle here last year so the course form box is ticked. Last year’s winner Jimmy Du Seuil also had his previous best performance in that race
Recommendations
0.5 pts ew each FORTY COATS and BECKETT ROCK (hopefully at around 33/1 with a minimum of 6 places being taken)
****
3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
Not a race I normally have a view on but I did post this a couple of weeks back on X
Last year Vanillier got in a lovely position early one and then Sean Flanagan took his hands off the wheel to look around behind him. He nearly rain off the track by doing that and totally lost his position. I hope and expect there will be full control at the wheel this year. He is 11 now but has shown the ability is still there at Punchestown this season and is a previous Festival winner. There is a caveat that if the ground dries out a lot it may not be ideal. At the time of putting this out 1/4 odds 1234 were still available. With only 14 declared it’s more likely to see 1/5th odds for 4 places now when prices are revised
Recommendation
1pt ew VANILLIER (look for a minimum of 8/1 with 4 places offered)
*****
4.00 Bet MGM Queen Mother Champions Chase
This race lost some competitivity when last year’s winner Marine Nationale was ruled out last week. It should leave the race at the mercy of Majborough who would surely have won last year’s Arkle Trophy but for a massive blunder 2 fences out. He still recovered enough to be involved in the finish.
He looked really good last time out and I feel his biggest danger again would be the fences. I think he’ll win with a clear round.
I couldn’t imagine L’Eau Du Sud not being placed in that Arkle but he ended up 4th after taking the race to Majborough. He would appear the main danger but I’d be worried again he might make himself vulnerable if being ridden to beat the favourite
Il Etait Temps has always shown his best form away from this track. On ratings he would be the main threat but he is coming here off a very bad fall on his last run which may have some effect
Quilixios may have been second last year but for falling but he hasn’t run since then. Captain Guinness is a past winner but is now 11 years old and his best days appear to be behind him
There are two at big prices I like to run well. Saint Segal has thrived this year under Ciaran Gethings and has a high cruising speed that could be suited by following Majborough’s pace. Brookie may be total outsider of the field but he badly needs good ground (it was far worse than good to soft last time he ran). I can see him being ridden to pick up some pieces and claim some place prize money here if ground continues to dry out
SUGGESTIONS: As I expect Majborough to win but see his price being too unattractive I suggest looking for markets appearing for ‘betting without Majborough’ here and where 1/5th odds 123 are offered
No odds will be out on those yet but I’ll be looking for both Saint Segal and Brookie each way in those markets
******
4.40 Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Hcap Chase
Nicky Henderson hasn’t aimed one for the race named after his father this year so that angle can’t be used.
Jazzy Matty won the race last year (his second Festival win) and comes back to defend his title off an 8lb higher mark. It’s his first run after a wind operation though so I’m not sure if everything has gone to plan with his preparations.
Ben Pauling has been very bullish about the talents of Vanderpoel in the run up to this but I would have liked to see some course form.
This isn’t a race I have a big view in but I’ve followed Release the Beast for a while as he has looked a work in progress for Paul Nolan – a trainer who knows how to win handicaps here. He hasn’t set foot beyond the Irish Sea in his career yet but I notice both a hood and a tongue tie are now added. I would have preferred the UK handicapper to have been a bit more lenient – but if he had he probbaly wouldnt have got in at the foor of the handicap here.
I would not be at all surprised to see him finally realise the potential he has shown a few times in his career to date
Selection; Release the Beast
*****
5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
An immediate pass for me for betting. Very little collateral form and all of these will be facing a new test in a 22 runner field run at a solid pace.
A few notes.
Bass Hunter has looked very talented in two wins but if he runs from the front as he did at Ascot he will do well to get home unless he is absolutely top drawer.
Quiryn (one of 4 from the Mullins stable) was bred to run on the flat but an aversion to starting stalls curtailed that plan. He certainly looked talented but quirky with it on his only run to date. The engine may be there but the temperament to deal with this occasion is a question mark
Mets Ta Ceinture was a big money buy for Dan Skelton and makes her UK debut here. She has strong French bumper form and as a 4 yo filly gets lots of weight from the others. It’s notable that dan has pitched her in so deep so quickly.
Selection if pushed – Mets Ta Ceinture
Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,
Paul
(You’ll find me on X as @Senor_Moodoir, on Blue Sky @senormoodoir.bsky.social)
thefinalfence 