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Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Day 1 and Day 2 thoughts

09 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Tuesday and Wednesday thoughts

For any annual followers of my Cheltenham musings – welcome back!       

As per usual, I’ll try to work through all races again highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll always have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself (if I can get on which is sometimes easier said than done with some firms). Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.

I’ve had to be less active on my social media accounts this winter (Winter Olympics has kept my compiling head too busy earlier this year) and there are very few early picks put up this year. It would be very hard to ever come close to matching last year’s ante post 100/1 winner in any case! I will try to put up any extra thoughts throughout the meeting on X or Blue Sky (account details at bottom of this post). (Vanillier in Wednesday’s Cross Country Chase and Bold Endeavour in Thursday’s Pertemps being the only two I’ve put up in advance on X recently – price of 25/1 now well gone on the latter)

I’m really pleased to see that Bryan Gault is still doing his excellent www.gaultstats.com site again this year. Once again I can thoroughly recommend for anyone looking to explore the statistical angles on Festival races. I’ve done pretty well following pointers from these in the past. There is little point for me going into them too deeply myself when they have been done so well by Bryan. Please don’t forget to donate though if you find this site useful.

Whilst stats are always in my thoughts, I don’t rely on them solely though. I do mix them in with what I’ve seen with my own eyes on previous form and from nearly 50 years of watching the Festival.

Note that there has been some tinkering with race schedules again this year. Some races have moved to different time slots and indeed different days from past meetings.

Centrepiece races remain at their new 4pm slot each day – an initiative that was brought in last year

Ground is looking fairly certain to start as Good to Soft at this stage. The lead up has been relatively dry and any Soft patches are likely to disappear. If the course continues to dry out we can expect some watering to try and maintain it at this kind of level. A course walk by Nicky Henderson on Sunday seemed to reveal it was more Good than Soft in many areas.

Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

A note on Each Way Betting:

I will always be on the lookout for enhanced place terms throughout the 4 days which can add notable value to any bets. If there are regularly 3 places offered but firms offer 4 this can be a productive edge. It was disappointing to see so many big handicaps were missing 6 places offered last year though – something that had been common pre 2025. The standard terms for handicaps of 16 runners would be ¼ odds 1234. Getting 1/5th odds for 6 places can be quite an improvement on that for the right type of selection and I hope to see it again. However, the more standard variation of 1/5th odds for 5 places became more common last year and I’m not holding my breath. Whilst that might look good the difference between one quarter and one fifth of win odds doesn’t often make that much change in terms of value.

In the past couple of years I’ve tried to keep a track on how certain big trainers profit/loss records have looked over the handicaps. Each way is calculated on assumption that 6 places are paid in handicaps – which was very common until last year. There may be the odd 6th place here where they may not be paid out though

Over the past 6 years some prominent results are here. Main things to note would be the P/L sucess of Dan Skelton in handicaps (books are aware of this though and its factored into prices regularly); the consistent profit made by backing Nicky Henderson horses in hurdles handicaps; the lack of sucess backing Willie Mullins horses blind in hcaps (particularly chases)

For last year 2025 I also added Gavin Cromwell who is becoming more and more of one to watch at this meeting. Henry De Bromhead’s handicap runners are notable here. He didnt have any winners from his 7 handicap runners but 6 of them were placed

Another things that is different this year – and which the course kept quiet until the Sunday before – appeared recently.

This could be quite significant to some hurdle results. A longer run in with an uphill finish may make stamina more of an asset for one. The hurdle seems to have been moved to avoid a patch of false ground

I’m covering the first two days here where all declarations are now out

Let’s start with the opening day on Tuesday

DAY 1

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2026-03-10.  *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses

One thing to note immediately here is that the meeting start a little bit earlier in the year than usual on March 10th. This may be significant as it is the birthday of leading owner JP McManus and I wonder if some running plans have been altered to fit in with that. If you are reading JP – Happy 75th Birthday …..and please don’t forget to message to let me know who you are backing 😉

1.20 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle.

12 runners have been declared to face the Cheltenham roar in the traditional opener. It’s a strong looking field that has a more competitive look than a few recent renewals.

My thoughts on the main contenders in current market order.

OLD PARK STAR. Has been ante post favourite for a while. He wasn’t an obvious type for the race at the beginning of the season but marked himself down as a serious contender with an authoritative here (course form box ticked) before Christmas. He then impressed again when leading all the way and with some pinpoint jumping at Haydock. He deserves to be favourite but it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank when being taken on for the lead here

MIGHTY PARK. The hype contender this year from the Willie Mullins camp. His race target wasn’t clear until a few days ago when his price fell dramatically. His price is based on rumours that he is the next big star to come from the Mullins arsenal. You would have to be a firm follower of that hype to be backing him though at around 7/2. He has only won one weak hurdle race where he wasn’t challenged at all. He could be ‘the second coming’ but he has to prove his jumping here with top flight company around him in a pressure cooker atmosphere. I’d want much bigger odds to be at all interested

TALK THE TALK. Again he wasn’t a definite contender for this until confirmed at the final declarations despite his trainer being adamant this was the race he was aiming for. Could well have won both of the strongest trial races for this at Leopardstown but for an awkward fall over Christmas. Was given a bit of a careful ride to help his jumping issues last time out and did really well to make up ground and win from a slow pace. His jumping would remain a potential Achilles heel but that last run should have helped

EL CAIROS. An eyecatcher when 5th in last years Festival Bumper when he looked like he should have gone close to winning but for his amateur rider looking like he was doing his best to stay on board at the speed he was going. Subsequently sold for a big sum and he looked sure to win impressively first time out this year but for another final hurdle blip. Won a minor race easily since but again nearly messed it up at the final hurdle. His hurdling generally has looked slick but it’s just when quickening up and jumping that a weakness has been seen. Has recorded 38mph when in full charge this season – something beyond the others so far.

MYDADDYPADDY. Was all the rage for this before his bubble was blown by Idaho Sun at Aintree. That was the first time he had come off the bridle and he found a battle hardened rival too much (Idaho Sun sadly injured and not able to renew rivalry). It was still a good run and he isn’t out of this but his official mark is 12 lb less than Old Park Star’s

LEADER D’ALLIER. Mullins has another contender here with stable jockey Paul Townend on board (Townend can’t ride Mighty Park who has a retained jockey). His defeat by Ballyfad earlier this season gives him something to find with Talk the Talk though

SOBER GLORY. Has looked a really good horse in winning 7 of his 8 races. A disappointing defeat – with no real explanation behind it – at Sandown being his only blot. He likes to run from the front and doesn’t stop. I do worry a little however when I see all his form is at Newbury and Chepstow and hasn’t raced here. Some will point to the fact his last winning time at Newbury was 4 seconds quicker than Tutti Quanti’s win in the prestigious Tote Gold Trophy that day. We must bear in mind though that the weather was filthy that day and by the time the other race was run there had been a lot of rain at the track – conditions were probably not like-for-like. Soft ground does seem to be his preference and he’s not likley to get it here

BARON NOIR. Maybe a bit of an outsider at around 33/1 but he deserves mentioning. The novice hurdle he was 2nd in at Warwick was a very strong race in my opinion. He raced freely there and has done in other races but his talent has got him through. The stronger pace here should get him settled and we can see what he is made of. He was good enough to beat El Cairos in the big Punchestown bumper last season so we know the engine is there. I don’t think his mark of 130 really reflects his talent and there could well be a 140+ horse in there.

The other four runners – EACHTOTHEIROWN, KOKTAIL BRUT, SAGEBOROUGH and TOO BOSSY FOR US are all useful in their own right – but it would be a surprise for me to see any of them winning

CONCLUSION.

The likely pace of this race is the overriding factor for me. I think we can expect Old Park Star, Mighty Park and Sober Glory all wanting to go a good clip. They have all had uninterrupted leads before and may be in new territory here. If there are any flaws in Mighty Park’s hurdling the other two will soon exploit it. This pace should really suit something that can sit off it and challenge them late. I do favour Talk The Talk and El Cairos to do that ( though I am a little nervous about their hurdling once speed is increasing downhill). I have marginal preference for Talk the Talk as suspect he has more stamina than El Cairos when we are now faced with a longer uphill drag from the last (would favour the latter on a flatter track)

I also think Baron Noir won’t be far off them with a couple to jump and could be a potential surprise packet. A couple of firms who offer 4 places each way would be useful in that regard.

My selection therefore is Talk the Talk but for betting I’d suggest backing him in a different way

The two horses who are tied in with his form most both run for Gordon Elliott in Wednesdays Turners Hurdle. Skylight Hustle and Ballyfad will both surely shorten if Talk the Talk wins or goes close. This is therefore taking advantage of related options (you can’t back the same horse to win two races without getting a special reduced price – but you can back two related horse and get some value)

I also think that Baron Noir’s run gives a related option with Bossman Jack in the same race on Wednesday as they both come from the same Warwick race

The recommendations are

1pt ew double Talk The Talk + Skylight Hustle (1.20 Wednesday)

1pt ew double Talk the Talk + Ballyfad (1.20 Wednesday)

0.25 pt ew double Baron Noir + Bossman Jack (1.20 Wednesday)

(the last bet ideally with firms who offer 4 places each on this race)

*****

2.00 Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy

This race has been billed as a face-off between Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba for a long while and they have both made it here.

It didn’t always look likely for the former who won the Supreme last year. He’s had an interrupted preparation but connections sound bullish again now and he has moved into favouristism.

Lulamba was 2nd in last season’s Triumph Hurdle and has flourished as a chaser this season.

Kopek Des Bordes did look a serious horse over hurdles last year but missing his intended prep race puts me off having any strong view here.

His stablemate Kargese won at the Festival last year and did have her prep race at Leopardstown. That was a really strongly run event in deep ground though which she’ll be doing well to have not been left with a mark from.

I’m not sure Mambonumberfive will be suited by this course as he is such a big horse and has been kept to flat tracks so far. Steel Ally is a likely pace angle for this race but I’m also mindful that he is now 8 years old and has been kept away from this track so far in his career

I would have put up Jax Junior as the each way pick at a big price if there were 3 places available but not it’s down to 7 runners that option has gone. He has impressed me a lot in his last two wins but he will need to step up again to reach the level of the two favourites. He was running well in the Albert Bartlett here last year until stamina became a factor (no concern here over a much shorter trip).He’d be the one I’d be looking for in any markets offered without the two favourites

Selection; If pushed I’d veer towards the proven form of Lulamba this season. For betting I’d just be looking to find Jax Junior in a market without the two favs though

*****

2.40 McCoy Contractors Juvenile Hcap Hurdle

This did used to be the last race on the opening day but now moved forward.

There are lots of potential plots here and it’s unlikely I’ll be betting at current prices.

My old system of finding the best flat horse used to work well until French breds started to muddy the waters. There is no definitive stand out flat performer here but top weight Barbizon had the highest rating of 94 on the level (and at least gets 5lb claimed off his back here). Saratoga, Dignam, Winston Junior, Glen to Glen, Ammes and Munsif (current reserve…he may be out of race by Monday afternoon if nothing drops out) were all close behind him on flat ratings.

Of these Saratoga and Munsif were 2nd and 3rd in a recent Naas race that has always been a good pointer for this. (Munsif I suspect may well show improvement on the better ground here and with the ‘notoriety’ of his stable’s plots….I won’t say any more on that!)

Joseph O’Brien trained the winner last year and his Glen to Glen won the same prep race so must be a factor. I’d also then have to bring in Ole Ole who isn’t far behind him on form and comes from the stable that produced a 50/1 second last year.

Ammes, from the James Owen stable, has a very similar look to last season’s 3rd from the same stable. The booking of Sean Bowen is notable there

If you fancy him or Winston Junior (another I couldn’t put anyone off), note it also ties in with Minella Study’s chances in Fridays Triumph Hurdle. It’s worth considering some related doubles there as I mentioned for the first race with that in mind

It’s a difficult race. If pushed for a selection I might be veering towards Winston Junior or Ammes as I think the Irish runners haven’t been given the best of it by the UK handicapper

******

3.20 Trustmarque Ultima Hcap Chase

This race is an old favourite of mine as the stats tended to point me in the way of horses carrying less than 11 stones. That would take out the top 13 in the field for me right away but it has to be said that the skew towards lower weights it quite as dramatic as it once was.

At the top of the weights we do have some classy performers. I think Handstands could be the best but his only run at the course was a disappointing one and I have yet to be convinced this track will suit him

Top weight Iroko is the current favourite for the Grand National so I wonder if this is just a prep race and they will be leaving something to work on with Aintree in mind.

The Green and Gold colours of JP will also be worn by current favourite Jagwar. He is a big horse who will have no issues carrying 11st 9lbs and has winning course form. The downsides would be his low price of around 7/2 and the fact that his regular jockey is on Iroko (can understand why with Grand National in mind)

Myretown won this race impressively last year when he would have comfortable suited the low weight stats carrying just 10st 3lbs. His mark is 15 pounds higher now but he still gets in under 11 stones (showing that this is a better quality race). His old stablemate Corach rambler won back-to-back renewals which will make him popular. His failure to complte in two of his three races thios season is the undoubted negative,

I put up The Short Go each way in this race last year as he looked to be well suited to the course and he paid out place money. He would have been the main pick for me again until the UK handicapper dealt him a fair blow by putting him 6 lbs higher than last year. He has also had a wind op since his last run – we just don’t know if that will be a positive or negative though until he runs.

My main selection sits near the bottom of the handicap as I often like in this race.

Knight of Allen is actually having to carry 4lb more than he should be but for me he arguably achieved more than the mark of 131 he carries here when 4th against much higher rated rivals on his last venture at this course. He was running on well at the finish then and giving 5 pounds to 137 rated Califet En Vol who finished 5 lengths in front of him (and that one has since won a competitive Kempton handicap). The extra distance here ought to suit him and it’s noteworthy that the Williams family have won this race in the past with another 6 year old (Coo Star Sivola)

I’ve found Jane Williams quite a frustrating trainer to follow in the past but the addition of Ciaran Gethings as stable jockey this season has been a huge factor in seeing much better results. Ciaran should be riding at this lowest weight here. He ran well enough at Newbury over 3 mils last time but I doubt that heavy ground there was ideal (his brother Galahad Quest performed best on decent ground)

CONCLUSION

I wouldn’t put anyone off The Short Go each way with firms who offer 6 or 7 places but it would be more with the place side in mind (note from stats earlier that his trainer Henry De Bromhead had nearly every one of his horses placed here in handicaps last year)

Recommendation

The main bet though for me is 1pt ew KNIGHT OF ALLEN (25/1 available with Skybet whoi pay 7 places – would still happily take 22/1 with 6 places elsewhere)

*****

4.00 Unibet Champion Hurdle

The centrepiece event was a very successful one for me last year with Golden Ace backed ante post at 100/1.

She had luck on her side when State Man fell at the last but she also did well to avoid his fall and that of Constitution Hill earlier which slightly took her out of position.

She again got lauded as ‘lucky’ when she won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle earlier this season when The New Lion fell. To my eyes she may well have won that encounter anyway as The New Lion was going no better.

She beat Brighterdayshead in the Champion Hurdle last year and in the Mares Novice Hurdle the season. Supposedly the slow pace was against Elliott’s mare that time but it won’t have suited the Ace that much either. My inclination is more that this course isn’t ideal for Brighterdaysahead

In short I think Golden Ace remains a mare who has been underestimated throughout her career – even by the official handicapper who gives her a mark of 152….I would have her more like 156 or 157.

I think she will go close again but admit to be being very worried about the presence of Lossiemouth in this year’s race. The Mullins star mare has avoided this race for 2 years to plunder the Mares Hurdle instead and she has a 4/4 record at Cheltenham. Connections have always seemed more enthused about getting an obvious win than a probable win so that fact she runs here suggest they are happy. A longer trip may be her optimum but with the errant stablemate Anzadam in the field there is always the chance of pace being injected into this race. Cheekpieces have been applied this time to help her with this bigger test of speed. A slight concern may be if the ground continues to dry. She was badly tapped for toe at Kempton last season and good ground may not be ideal for her.

Patrick Mullins couldn’t control that one earlier this season at Leopardstown and we could see similar here. The addition of Tutti Quanti into the race would also seem to aid this race not being run at a crawl.

Both Tutti Quanti and Alexei are interesting outsiders who have elevated themselves to this level after impressive handicap wins earlier this season. I would have a small concern about their last runs being in bad ground in February though (particularly in the case of the latter who may have had an unnecessarily hard race at Wincanton)

CONCLUSION

I can’t not support Golden Ace each way at 9/1 or 10/1 as think she will be in the frame at least. She has done me proud here for the last two season and owes me nothing. I do fear Lossiemouth though so if a market ‘without Lossiemouth’ appears I’d become more interested. I do prefer Golden Ace to The New Lion and Brighterdayahead who are lower prices.

Recommendation

1pt ew Golden Ace (taking 9/1 or better if available)

******

4.40 Sun Racing Plate Hcap Chase

Not a handicap that excites me too much

Both Madara (looks a likely Dan Skelton targeted runner) and McLaurey (potential Emmet Mullins plot) are just priced too much in expectation of their runs at around 4/1 to interest me.

At a better price, Downmexicoway is unexposed at this trip and the De Bromhead stable did very well with placings in handicaps at this meeting last year (see my earlier table). I’m not sure he is hiding too much from a mark of 145 but he was given an easy time last time out when not getting involved in the pace war of the Irish Arkle principals

At bigger odds I’d just thrown in O’Moore Park at around 16/1 as better value. His last run wasn’t anything to write home about but he’s only a pound higher than when placed at 66/1 in the novices handicap last year. Decent ground and this course seem to bring out the best in him. Unlikely I’ll be betting though in this event.

Selections if pushed – Downmexicoway and O’Moore Park

******

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap

This is the second year of this race being run as a handicap. Eveything went to plan when Haiti Coleurs dominated the race last year. This year there is no standout contender for me though. I had one fancy who declined to take join the field at the final stage

Winning connections from last year field Newton Tornado this time. But whilst Haiti won well on the course during his preps, Newton Tornado fell. He doesn’t give me the same feeling as an out and out galloper whose jumping will put the rest to the sword. In his defence, we must note that trainer Rebecca Curtis has a good record in handicaps from quite a small sample over the year

Backersackme is another likely plot horse. The combination of Emmet Mullins training and Paul Byrne owning will often have bookies running for cover and his price reflects that.

Wade Out is also well found in the market but he is a horse who really makes life hard for his jockey. Don’t be surprised to see him under hard driving from a long way out and then just plugging on through beaten horses. If you fancy his chances betting on the Exchange in running may give you a much bigger price.

Iceberg Theory (trainer knows how to lay one out for handicap here) and One Big Bang (3rd over a trip that was far too inadequate for him last time but may want softer ground) would be of more interest to me but I don’t feel strongly enough about either to get involved.

There are a lot of stamina questions to be answered in this race – and quite a few who like to front run. It should come down to who has the best stamina reserves in the final half mile

Selection if pushed would be Iceberg Theory

******************************

******

That’s Day 1 thoughts completed now onto Wednesday’s musings for Day 2…………

Hopefully there is some profit in the bank by now.

Note that as I write these declarations have only just come out. Markets may take some time to be updated and so revised odds may not be widespread until later on Monday afternoon

1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle

It’s 2017 since anything with a double figure price won this (Willoughby Court) and we have to go back to First Lieutenant in 2011 to find a winner who had a handicap mark of less than 146 winning.

That stat alone quickly whittles this down to three runners; Ballyfad (149), Skylight Hustle (148) and King Rasko Grey (148).

The main UK hope, No Drama This End comes in with a mark of 144. He might well be better than that but his most impressive performances have come of softer ground that what he may face here.

As mentioned already for the opening race on day 1, I’ve already given away my thoughts a little here in the expectation that Talk The Talk runs well there.

Ballyfad was just touched off by that horse last time and had King Rasko Grey just behind him.

Skylight Hustle was vying for the lead with Talk The Talk when that one fell in his previous race. There may not have been much between them.

It was always likely to be a tough choice to make for stable jockey Jack Kennedy here. Both Elliott horses have yet to perform at this trip over hurdles but both were ready winners of Point to Points over 3 miles to give encouragement that the extra distance will be in their favour. (Sir Gerhard a recent winner of this race came in with the same profile). He picked Ballyfad – but as that is owned by the stable’s main patron it could have some bearing. There may not be that much between them

As also noted from day one musings, if Baron Noir runs well it’s a pointer for Bossman Jack. He looked a work in progress on his hurdles debut at Warwick and has impressed in 2 wins since. Those wins aren’t at the level of this race and his handicap rating of 134 is somewhat shy of what would be required to win this. I am surprised that Dan Skelton hasn’t gone down the handicap route with that mark so his entry here is evident of the regard he is held in and the step up in trip should see more improvement.

Selections

Already covered in Race 1 synopsis from Day 1 – and hopefully there is money running onto Ballyfad, Skylight Hustle and/or Bossman Jack after that

******

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase

Possibly my biggest ante post interest here comes in the form of Wendigo who really caught my eye with his 3rd place at Kempton over Christmas. I have been backing this one at far bigger prices than what is available now but still think he is the most solid option.

It was fairly clear in that race that the track was too quick for him and he was on the backfoot from some way out but he stuck to it in such a way that I felt sure he would turn the form around with the winner (Kitzbuhel) back at this meeting. His run was very reminiscent of subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River’s effort back in 2015. There have been several beaten horses in that Feltham Chase that have come on to win this race (Bobs Worth immediately springing to mind)

Wendigo’s run in last season Albert Bartlett Hurdle also gives confidence that this track suits him. He was going very well there and looking likely to be a big contender until nearly taken out of the race by The Big Westerner before the home turn. He wouldn’t have won but I feel sure he would have been up with her for second if not for that incident. The Big Westerner would be a threat again but with her need for soft ground unlikely to be fulfilled her chance may diminish

At the time I was backing, Final Demand was a short priced favourite for this race. He has since disappointed in his prep race when beaten by Kaid d’Authie and Western Fold and the race does have more of an open look now. Final Demand may well bounce back from that but he does have something to prove at this course. His 3rd place in the Turners Hurdle last year was arguably his weakest hurdles performance and might indicate the track doesn’t suit him. Kaid d’Authie was also pulled up on his only start here so also has a course question to answer.

Western Fold was second in this race. He doesn’t have any experience on this course so that negative factor can’t be applied. He may improve for the better ground so rates a threat though whether he is as strong a stayer as my selection is debatable. He does hold another Irish challenger Oscars Brother on earlier form (that one may prefer softer ground)

Romeo Coolio was considered an unlikely contender for this race until very recently but once confirmed he became favourite. He has yet to race over this trip and he may well be suited by it in time but I can’t be enthused about his chances this time. He had a very hard race last time out in deep ground. That was his 4th race this season and the chances of it leaving a mark must be high. There is a strong sense that his presence here is more about the owner wanting a runner than the trainer wanting to run.

Recommendation

1.5 pts ew WENDIGO (hopefully there will be some firms offering 4 places on this – there should be with the number of runners left in the race)

*****

2.40 BetMGM Cup Hcap Hurdle

Firstly there is a bit of schadenfrude here that the arch plotter Charles Byrnes’s had had his second fancied handicap runner appear as a reserve. I Started A Joke – like Munsif – on Tuesday needs something to drop out to get a run. I could feel sorry for other connections but less so for this one!

It’s not a race that appeals to me much for betting at the moment and I’d want the 6 places to be offered at least for any each ways bets.

I’m naturally drawn to two stables from P/L stats

Nicky Henderson has done very well here in tha past and fields Lucky Place, Jingko Blue and Iberico Lord. Lucky Place has done well in this race before but he hasn’t looked the same horse since an unsuccessful chasing spell. Jingko Blue seems to be fancied by the stable if preview night chat can be believed but I’m struggling to warm to his chances based on his previous Festival effort. Iberico Lord may be the strongest of his runners having come back to form last time out and having winning form in the past on this course (albeit over a shorter trip)

Henry De Bromhead’s handicap record from last year has already been mentioned and he also fields three. Ballyadam was 3rd last year but he is now 11 years old and must be vulnerable off a high weight to younger improvers. Beckett Rock was also engaged in handicap chases at this meeting off a lower mark but it’s significant he turns up here where he was 6th last year. Stable jockey, Darragh O’Keeffe has picked Forty Coats however. His form this season isn’t enticing but it is notable that cheekpieces are added for the first time here. His stand out piece of form was his 4th in the Turners Novice Hurdle here last year so the course form box is ticked. Last year’s winner Jimmy Du Seuil also had his previous best performance in that race

Recommendations

0.5 pts ew each FORTY COATS and BECKETT ROCK (hopefully at around 33/1 with a minimum of 6 places being taken)

****

3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Not a race I normally have a view on but I did post this a couple of weeks back on X

Last year Vanillier got in a lovely position early one and then Sean Flanagan took his hands off the wheel to look around behind him. He nearly rain off the track by doing that and totally lost his position. I hope and expect there will be full control at the wheel this year. He is 11 now but has shown the ability is still there at Punchestown this season and is a previous Festival winner. There is a caveat that if the ground dries out a lot it may not be ideal. At the time of putting this out 1/4 odds 1234 were still available. With only 14 declared it’s more likely to see 1/5th odds for 4 places now when prices are revised

Recommendation

1pt ew VANILLIER (look for a minimum of 8/1 with 4 places offered)

*****

4.00 Bet MGM Queen Mother Champions Chase

This race lost some competitivity when last year’s winner Marine Nationale was ruled out last week. It should leave the race at the mercy of Majborough who would surely have won last year’s Arkle Trophy but for a massive blunder 2 fences out. He still recovered enough to be involved in the finish.

He looked really good last time out and I feel his biggest danger again would be the fences. I think he’ll win with a clear round.

I couldn’t imagine L’Eau Du Sud not being placed in that Arkle but he ended up 4th after taking the race to Majborough. He would appear the main danger but I’d be worried again he might make himself vulnerable if being ridden to beat the favourite

Il Etait Temps has always shown his best form away from this track. On ratings he would be the main threat but he is coming here off a very bad fall on his last run which may have some effect

Quilixios may have been second last year but for falling but he hasn’t run since then. Captain Guinness is a past winner but is now 11 years old and his best days appear to be behind him

There are two at big prices I like to run well. Saint Segal has thrived this year under Ciaran Gethings and has a high cruising speed that could be suited by following Majborough’s pace. Brookie may be total outsider of the field but he badly needs good ground (it was far worse than good to soft last time he ran). I can see him being ridden to pick up some pieces and claim some place prize money here if ground continues to dry out

SUGGESTIONS: As I expect Majborough to win but see his price being too unattractive I suggest looking for markets appearing for ‘betting without Majborough’ here and where 1/5th odds 123 are offered

No odds will be out on those yet but I’ll be looking for both Saint Segal and Brookie each way in those markets

******

4.40 Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Hcap Chase

Nicky Henderson hasn’t aimed one for the race named after his father this year so that angle can’t be used.

Jazzy Matty won the race last year (his second Festival win) and comes back to defend his title off an 8lb higher mark. It’s his first run after a wind operation though so I’m not sure if everything has gone to plan with his preparations.

Ben Pauling has been very bullish about the talents of Vanderpoel in the run up to this but I would have liked to see some course form.

This isn’t a race I have a big view in but I’ve followed Release the Beast for a while as he has looked a work in progress for Paul Nolan – a trainer who knows how to win handicaps here. He hasn’t set foot beyond the Irish Sea in his career yet but I notice both a hood and a tongue tie are now added. I would have preferred the UK handicapper to have been a bit more lenient – but if he had he probbaly wouldnt have got in at the foor of the handicap here.

I would not be at all surprised to see him finally realise the potential he has shown a few times in his career to date

Selection; Release the Beast

*****

5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper

An immediate pass for me for betting. Very little collateral form and all of these will be facing a new test in a 22 runner field run at a solid pace.

A few notes.

Bass Hunter has looked very talented in two wins but if he runs from the front as he did at Ascot he will do well to get home unless he is absolutely top drawer.

Quiryn (one of 4 from the Mullins stable) was bred to run on the flat but an aversion to starting stalls curtailed that plan. He certainly looked talented but quirky with it on his only run to date. The engine may be there but the temperament to deal with this occasion is a question mark

Mets Ta Ceinture was a big money buy for Dan Skelton and makes her UK debut here. She has strong French bumper form and as a 4 yo filly gets lots of weight from the others. It’s notable that dan has pitched her in so deep so quickly.

Selection if pushed – Mets Ta Ceinture

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,

Paul

(You’ll find me on X as @Senor_Moodoir, on Blue Sky @senormoodoir.bsky.social)

 
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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

11 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

The Festival got under way today with the ground looking to be good to soft in opening races – and with a drying afternoon it won’t get any worse. The chase course was riding a bit slower than the hurdles course according to Nico de Boinville after his ‘off the sofa’ ride in the Arkle.

A note on the weather for Wednesday morning. There seems to be a possibility of frost overnight and wintry showers on Wednesday morning. This should stop any possibility of the ground drying further and may make it more testing yet. A ground update from Cheltenham tomorrow morning is recommended https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/.

I’ll go through my thoughts below on assumption of it remaining Good to Soft.

****

Onto Day 2 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-12

1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle

6 of the 11 runners here are from the Mullins stable but Final Demand looks to be the clear number one. He was very impressive last time, albeit over a longer trip and comes here with a rating 5 pounds more than anything else. I do feel he is the one to beat but the shorter trip and the undulating course (can be more of an issue for bigger horses like him) are at the back of my mind. With stamina seemingly a forte and 4 stablemates to help out, I’m expecting a well-run race to avoid an ill-suiting sprint finish

The New Lion is unbeaten and was very impressive in winning the Challow Hurdle over Christmas (a race that a notoriously bad record for its winners coming here it has to be said). The form of that race doesn’t look quite so good to me now as it did then though – even though he did win easily. He is the big UK hope here representing the Dan Skelton stable

Back in 3rd in the Challow was Bill Joyce by 5.5 lengths. That horse then went to Cheltenham and was beaten 12 lengths by Sixmilebridge with Potters Charm separating them in 3rd.

Admittedly Sixmilebridge was receiving weight from both 2nd and 3rd that day but it still makes him a viable opponent here with proven course form.

Potters Charm was odds-on favourite that day and didn’t run up to expectations. Connections did seem to have an argument about running him and it might have been better if he didn’t. His previous form on this track was excellent and if he is 100% again (stable suggests he is), he is another real contender.

The Yellow Clay was fancied but only sixth in last year’s Champion Bumper. He has been solid in his hurdles this season. Similarly to Potters Charm, he doesn’t win his races flashily but grinds them out more. That’s a good quality for me when it comes to an uphill finish like this.

I’m struggling to see a case for anything outside of these 5 but Mullins 2nd or 3rd strings have run well before so if fancying any of those at a big price there is still some hope.

Again Skybet offer an extra fourth place here for each-ways but again their model has shortened the win odds compared to other firms to account for this

Selection: I think Final Demand is the likeliest winner – more so if the ground doesn’t dry up any more overnight. His price is a bit too short for me though at under 2/1. I see more value in the prices of Potters Charm and Sixmilebridge as each way selections. Betting both with 4 places at Skybet makes a bit more appeal here but you’d want to back them at SP and hope for better than their current prices here. That might well happen if the two favourites are well backed

No recommendations given the advice is very limited to one bookmaker and it’s not one I can get a bet on with myself for more than pennies!

****

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase

It’s sad to see the premier longer distance race for novice chasers has no UK trained runners this year. Also 4 of the 7 runners are from the Mullins stable.

Ballyburn is the obvious favourite. He isn’t proven over this trip but wasn’t stopping last time out. His jumping isn’t flawless but it’s no worse than stablemate Dancing City’s (may require softer ground to make it more a stamina test).

Last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Stellar Story, takes the prize for most awkward looking jumper in the field though. He looked like he was given a ride just to get round and improve his confidence last time or else he may have beaten his stablemate, Better Days Ahead.

If the ground did dry further then Gorgeous Tom could become more of a contender. He’s also unproven on the trip but looks like he may relish it.

Selection. I can’t really avoid Ballyburn here. His hurdling form is a good notch above these. Would I back him around Evens though in what may be his stiffest jumping test yet – unlikely!

*****

2.40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

I’ve been sweet on Beat the Bat for some time in this race. I wasn’t sure he would get in with his lower weight so was delighted to see him scrape in at number 24.

Harry Fry’s charge run in top two mile handicaps the last two occasions and been well supported in both. It’s been evident in both though that the trip was too short and I’m sure this longer trip is something he is crying out for. His last race at Newbury has often been a good guide for this race.

Ground is not an issue whichever way it goes overnight here

Given, Dan Skelton’s past prowess in doing long range plots for handicap hurdles here respect has to be given to Be Aware. The horse’s name is well found though as bookmakers are fully aware of his credentials in making him around 5/1.

Softer ground does seem a positive for him so any overnight changes are worth noting – he is just too short a price for me now.

Willie Mullins’ Bunting is currently sharing favouritism but the stable’s record in handicap hurdles is pretty dire if you look at my previous post on this subject. I note from www.gaultstats.com that he is 1 from 50 in this race since 2010

The Mullins stable also field Jimmy Du Seuil who has s standout piece of form from this meeting last year that he hasn’t matched since. If he did find himself in the groove back here he would be a contender.

Ballyadam was 2nd in this race last year from a mark of 147 (has today). He also ran well in the County Hurdle the previous year off. Good ground is probably what he wants and it’s easy to see him running well again but at the age of 10 now can he really improve to win off a higher mark than he has had to shoulder before.

Not every firm offering enhanced 6 places here as yet – which has been replicated moreso in other handicaps. It’s been noticeable that 5 places is often more prevalent this year and as such there is a bit less value in handicaps to be seen generally so far. In contrast, Skybet offer 8 places if you can get a bet on with them

Recommendation. Back Beat the Bat 1 pt each way at 14/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or better

****

3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Any regular devotees of my blog will know this is the time I put the kettle on and sit down to watch without getting involved in betting. A history of having jockeys taking the wrong course on this special course doesn’t help. This is the first year it has been a handicap which should make it more competitive. I still can’t help think it’s like going to Wimbledon but watching an Exhibition match played between old professionals and employing a few trick shots

With all that in mind I’ll pass on a selection and just wish anyone luck who has a bet on it!

****

4.00  Queen Mother Champion Chase

As long as we stick with a flat field of 8 runners here then each way options will give us 3 places. If one were to come out then it would go down to 2 places and make each way betting a bit less attractive.

Jonbon is unbeaten in this division this year and this looks like the opportunity for him to land his Festival win. He has been second twice here in the past and had to be withdrawn late last year when his stable had some huge issues with the form of their horses.

If it did get very soft ground it might make things harder but that looks unlikely.

One of Nico de Boinville’s main tasks will be to focus on not giving too much rope to the field’s obvious front runner, Solness.

Solness has been a revelation at Leopardstown this year when he has taken his form to a new level. He hasn’t been taken on for the lead much and connections would have been delighted when another pace option, Matata, was taken out of the race at the 5 day stage.

If he is let to roll along up front and get a decent lead, he could be dangerous (a previous run on this track wasn’t great) but I don’t think Jonbon will let him get away.

If the ground does soften up then I can envisage a better run from the 2022 champion Energumene. He is 11 years old now and firmly in the veteran stage. He was put in his place last time out by Jonbon but showed he still retains plenty of ability.

With Solness here to force the pace, and Jonbon likely to be ghosting him, I can envisage more of a hold up ride on Energumene here. This tactic worked well for him in 2022. I do think he needs some cut in the ground to have a real shot at Jonbon though

Selection; Jonbon has to be my pick on all form this year. At around 7/1 I I think Energumene would provide some each way value though – but only if the ground remains good to soft or deeper – and that there remain 8 runners. Therefore I’ll only be looking to bet him as we get closer to the race

*****

4.40 Grand Annual Challenge Cup

Another competitive handicap with last year’s winner, Unexpected Party, returning to try and retain his title of a 6 pound higher mark. The respect that bookmakers have for his trainer has again been reflected in his odds though I’d suspect Skelton may have hoped to get him lower than this mark if he could have done.

Jazzy Matty is also a previous Festival winner having triumphed in the Juveniles handicap hurdle in 2023.He is a novice here but looks to have been plotted up with a hurdle race preparation. Before then he’d gone close in a 4 runner novice chase – the form of which may be questionable as the race was very slowly run.

JPR One is the class horse of the race but has to carry 12 stone because of it and of the higher weights I prefer My Mate Mozzie, who finished one place in front of him in last year’s Arkle and is 5 pounds better off.

The likely strong pace here is likely to suit My Mate Mozzie’s hold up style. He’s a versatile horse who was placed at Royal Ascot on the flat last year but is equally effective over chases and hurdles at a high level.

He wouldn’t want to see lots of rain and I can also say the same for General Medrano who should also be suited by strong pace. He got to the front too soon at Doncaster last time but was massively impressive at Newbury earlier in the season. He’s never raced at Cheltenham before so there has to be a little question mark in my head as to if he will cope with the undulations. The price is big enough to mitigate those doubts though

Two selections here;

Recommendations

1pt ew My Mate Mozzie taking 7/1 or better with 5 places

0.5 pts ew General Medrano taking 20/1 or better

****

5.20 Champion Bumper

Another impossible race where to have any idea you would want some inside stable info – ideally from the Mullins stable with its 5 runners (a small entry from them this year!).

Copacabana’s place at the head of the market was cemented when JP McManus recently said it as his only bet coming into the meeting. An odd thing to say when he doesn’t own and recently paid plenty for Aqua Force in the same race.

Lots of horses here with impressive recent wins but we can’t be sure what they beat and how strong the form is.

Another race to sit out with no selection – but to watch carefully with a view to the future as it is a breeding ground for future good hurdlers and chasers

****

Overall, this looks a quieter betting day for me today but hopefully some food for thought is in there …for 5 of the races at least!

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 11, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

10 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

Welcome back to annual followers of my blog covering the 4 days of National Hunt racing’s Olympics!

I’ll try to work through all races again on a day-by-day basis highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself. Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.

My main social media activity now on horse racing is the Blue Sky app (bsky.app) where I’ll post any extra snippets I see during the week (@senormoodoir.bsky.social ). I have already added a few early ante post interests in there this year – some of which the prices have now dropped a good bit on – so the value on those may have disappeared by now.

I used to cover the statistical pointers that can often pick out winners but this is done so much better in recent years by www.gaultstats.com. It is Bryan Gault’s last year doing this invaluable resource and please remember to contribute to the cause he is doing it for if finding it useful.

There is a slightly different look to this year’s Festival with the placement of races and the removal of a couple of races to be replaced by new handicaps.

Centrepiece races have now been moved back to 4pm each day and are now the 5th race on the card. Great news for younger fans who may have been trapped in school and unable to watch – about 50 years too late for me though in that regard!

Ground conditions are always going to play a significant factor. Last year we had softer conditions but there has been less rain this year and some watering has been already done to try and ensure we get Good to Soft or even Good ground which so often the Festival begins with.

Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-11-cheltenham

*take note that Oddschecker has now started to charge for this service after they deem you to have used it too much – change to another browser if you can when that happens and you should be able to access again

***

Day 1 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-11. *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses

1.20 Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The traditional opener to the meeting is this year run in honour of 2023’s winning jockey, Michael O’Sullivan, who tragically died from a riding accident last month.

It would certainly be quite fitting if the same colours were to triumph again here with William Munny, a horse with a live each-way chance.

William Munny was one of the best bumper horses in Ireland last season but it wasn’t until his 3rd run over hurdles before he started to finally began to realise his hurdling potential with a very easy win at Punchestown. Prior to that he hadn’t settled in his races and was beaten 7 lengths by Workahead at Leopardstown. The two reoppose here but I wouldn’t take that form literally as the second looked a different article last time.

Romeo Coolio was similar level in bumpers to William Munny last year and has transitioned to hurdles very well this year.

These three are all contenders for the places for me though if Kopek Des Bordes can show the same form that blew away a decent field with ease at Leopardstown in February. One of six runners from the all-powerful Willie Mullins stable here, he is clearly their number one.

His hurdling debut showed some jumping flaws bu they did seem to have been ironed out next time. However he did show a possible weakness when getting very lit up in the preliminaries and looking like he might get out of control with jockey Paul Townend early on. I’m sure the stable would have worked on that since and a hood is applied for the first time here to help deal with the task he is going to face (Willam Munny also wearing the same first time headgear).

There is a real pressure cooker atmosphere for the first race as the crowd get revved up for the first race and there is a traditional roar. False starts are not uncommon in this race so it does present a test for the favourite.

In short I think, the biggest rival for Kopek Des Bordes could be himself. If the start goes fine and he settles he is going to take a lot of beating. If things don’t go so well then others have a chance.

At around Even money to win I can’t therefore support him.

In the past many firms have dangled a carrot in this opening race with extra places to give some value. Only Skybet have gone that far this year but in so doing are offering slightly lower prices than others so I’m still not getting too excited there (marginal preference for Romeo Coolio as the one who looks guaranteed to finish in the top 4 to me but not much between him, Workahead and William Munny)

I must also mention Tripoli Flyer who showed what an engine he has when winning the last twice easily despite some indifferent hurdling. His best form is all on decent ground (should get that) and on flat tracks (won’t get that). I thought Aintree in April would be far more suitable for him so a little surprised to see him running here. If he can cope with the track he is definitely dangerous. However, the fact his stable haven’t yet run him here , despite being almost next door to the track, suggests to me that it may not be ideal for him.

Selection: KOPEK DES BORDES (but not a betting proposition for me)

****

2.00 Arkle Challenge Trophy

I’ve already covered this in my earlier post regarding some early selections. Not much has changed except there are now only 5 runners and so there is no more each way with 3 places.

I think Majborough will win if he jumps round cleanly – but he is flamboyant at times and I can easily see him making a bad mistake at some point on this tricky course. If he does that would let the clean jumping course winner L’Eau Du Sud in as the most likely to profit.

Both horses have already beat Touch Me Not this season and should do so again. That one’s inclusion in the race is good though as he is a decent jumper who can put pressure on the favourite up front.

Jango Baie looks like he needs further and might be caught for pace at a crucial stage but should be running on late. Only By Night also looks likely to be held up and delivered late but I just don’t think her form is good enough to win.

Selection: I’ve already put up L’EAU DU SUD when each way 1/5 odds 123 was available. Place odds are less attractive now this has become less of a betting proposition. I still think he represents a little more value than the odds on favourite Majborough though

****

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase

Always a competitive handicap and one that has served me well over the years.

I’m find it very tricky this year though!

The Changing Man has done well to stay on a mark of 140 after a bloodless win last time (aided by all his rivals making errors). He has been a slow developer with his jumping technique but finally seems to have got his act together now. Whilst he has been consistent in decent handicaps this season he has been beaten in them off lower marks than here. The handicap record of his trainer Joe Tizzard (see my earlier post on trainer stats) is also disconcerting. He has a chance but I can see him placing again rather than winning – and also I think a smaller field may have suited him better.

Broadway Boy has a fine record on this course and runs here in preparation for the Grand National. That slightly puts me off here as you would imagine that connections have left some room for improvement with a bigger aim to come. He may prefer softer and for a front runner to win this off such a high weight would be quite some task.

I’ve always been drawn to lower weights carrying less than 11 stone in this race.

Katate Dori would immediately therefore be on the shortlist after an impressive win last time that sees his mark increase by 12 pounds here. He may well still be ahead of the handicapper.

Lucinda Russell has won race before and has both Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown in the right weight zone. The former has stable jockey Derek Fox on board and appears to be the number one (if there is a jockey switch take note). He had a nice sighter of these fences over an inadequate trip last time. Additionally, Whistle Stop Tour would appear to appreciate the drying conditions while Myretown may prefer softer.

Marginal preference though is for Irish challenger, The Short Go who had Broadway Boy behind him here earlier in the season (latter beaten 11 lengths and  is only 5 pounds better of). He obviously doesn’t cope with deep winter ground and the forecast conditions here must be in his favour. With Rachel Blackmore on board, he might well be a popular pick on the day. Expect to see a hold up ride with him being smuggled into the race late on.

I also can’t leave an old friend, Straw Fan Jack, completely alone at huge odds. His form has been indifferent this year but there were signs of a revival last time and he’s now on a 6 pound lower mark than when 3rd at the Festival last year (Reopposing Crebilly just ahead but worse off here yet a much shorter price). His jumping can be erratic but his form at Cheltenham overall isn’t bad. The trip is a slight question mark but he is a huge price to make up for that

Selections: Not a race for risking too much on but I’m interested in The Short Go at around 14/1 each way with firms offering 6 places. Also a speculative little each way on Straw Fan Jack at 50/1 or bigger

Recommendations

1pt ew The Short Go

0.5 pts ew Straw Fan Jack

3.20 Mares Hurdle

The complexion of this race changed enormously at the final declaration stage when last year’s winner, Lossiemouth, was declared rather than the Champion Hurdle.

Her form should be on a different level to the rest but she did suffer a nasty fall last time. She should win, but there is always going to be a slight seed of doubt about whether she is fully 100% given she sidestepped the bigger prize.

With her being odds-on favourite it’s also killed any hope of being offered an extra place on the race.

It’s possible to give place chance to nearly all the rest but I’m most drawn to Queens Gamble given she has such good past course form and will like the better ground.

A plot to take a big handicap at Leopardstown in February was scuppered by softer conditions and a bruised knee during the race (also not Blackmore’s finest of rides).

I think she’ll benefit form a longer trip here and can see her running well.

She probably won’t beat the favourite if on song but many firms offer ‘betting without the favourite’ and that option becomes more interesting in this circumstance.

Selection: QUEENS GAMBLE each way in the ‘Betting without Lossiemouth’ market at hopefully 16/1 or better

Recommendation: 1pt ew Queens Gamble – in betting without Lossiemouth market

*****

4.00 Champion Hurdle

I’ll cut to the chase here for Tuesday’s premier race.

Constitution Hill is probably the best hurdler I have seen since Golden Cygnet in the mid 1970s when I first started watching this sport.

Unless something is ailing him, and I can’t imagine he would be here if his trainer didn’t think he was 100% , then I struggle to see him getting beaten. If anything, my biggest worry would be the final hurdle. He didn’t met it right in his last run and when last wining this race he jumped way too early after seeing a shadow on it

Brighterdaysahead is a fine mare and its great to see here in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. Her pacemaker, King of Kingsfield, should make this race a true test. They employed similar tactics to hand out a thrashing to the 2024 Champion Hurdler, State Man, over the Christmas period.

That tactic should be enough to derail any hopes for State Man again, but if anything it will be help for Constitution Hill. The favourite’s most impressive career win in the Supreme Novices Hurdle came on the back of a breakneck pace also.

Burdett Road likes to force the pace also so might also find himself on the backfoot on the uphill home straight.

I put up Golden Ace as a value each way proposition on Blue Sky at 100/1 at the beginning of the year. I thought I had done my money on that as she looked likely to be in the Mares Hurdle but a late change of mind was very welcome.

I can see here being ridden for a place here (will add plenty of value to her as a broodmare) and am hopeful she can take advantage of others being broken by the favourite.

There is no more 100/1 though and no more 3 place options for each way so the value on her has largely gone

Selection; CONSTITUTION HILL – but at no more than 8/13 there aren’t too many rich pickings to be gained here

***

4.40 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Another race where I was active on Blue Sky a few weeks ago to suggest Hot Fuss at 33/1 after an unconventional prep run at Southwell.

I think he ran in one of the best juvenile races in the UK this season when putting it up to current Triumph Hurdle favourite, East India Dock, at Wincanton. He was a little disappointing in deep ground at Chepstow over Christmas but that has meant he has a nice low mark of 122 here. His Southwell win wouldn’t have affected his mark but it showed an improved performance sporting a first time visor.

Connections now use first time blinkers and I think he’s very much one to keep on the right side of whilst he has an attractive mark.

Chief danger is another of East India Dock’s victims this year, French raider Stencil. Stencil was the only one to keep with his conqueror’s strong pace last time and only gave way in the closing stages after travelling noticeably well. He is the likely favourite here but I don’t think his mark of 135 is unduly harsh – and the pace of this race will suit.

James Reveley has been saying is preview evenings recently that his mount is better than a handicapper and I tend to agree.

Far less attractive is well supported Irish raider, Total Look, who I think may almost get the prize of worst handicapped horse in the race. His UK mark of 132 is 9 pounds higher than his current Irish mark of 123. Additionally, he was beaten by both Quantock Hills and Teriferma at this track in December when receiving weight from both. Now he has to give them both 6 pounds. Cheekpieces may be on for the first time and his trainer is a shrewd operator – but if this wins there should be a stewards enquiry for some explanations!

I’m largely in the mind that Irish juvenile hurdlers this season are coming into this a little bit too harshly handicapped. It must be noted though that Joseph O’Brien won this last year with another horse who didn’t look that well in but had been prepared especially for the race. Take note then for any strong money on the day for Puturhandstogether or Beyond Your Dreams (not least because they are both owned by prolific punter JP McManus)

Selections:

STENCIL Each way taking 11/2 or better – some firms offering 6 places but not all

HOT FUSS 12/1 each way – the really nice prices have already gone unfortunately

Recommendations

2pts ew Stencil

1pt ew Hot Fuss

*****

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap

A big change to this long distance novices race this year. For the first time it is now a handicap and is no longer the domain of amateur riders. A ceiling for horse with marks no more than 145 also restricts the upper echelon of novice chasers from taking part. A bit of early planning from some stables would have been needed.

As there is no previous running there are no previous stats to work from either.

Another race I’ve already covered to some degree when offering up Haiti Couleurs in my Early Ante Post selections post.

I’m still strongly in his favour. Connections think highly enough of him to think they could have run him in the Turners Novice Chase tomorrow – a non-handicap novices championship race – but his handicap mark of 135 meant this race was always going to be more ttractive.

He has purposefully been given a small break since his immaculate round of jumping to secure a course win here in December. A hurdles run last month which would not affect his chase mark was more than satisfactory and his trainer has a great strike rate at the Festival from not too many past runners

That Cheltenham piece of form is the key to this race I think and also throws up his biggest danger, Transmission. Neil Mulholland’s charge is reunited with Patrick Mullins here and is 4 pounds better off for just over 2 lengths. He has also had a recent run over hurdles to protect his chase mark and promises to be suited by a longer trip.

The prevailing ground shouldn’t be a barrier to either horse and I think they are the two best handicapped horses in this race on this years form.

Gericault Roque is also well handicapped on past Festival form but he has only run once this year after a long lay-off since 2022. There is always a chance of a dip back in form after such a break but he still can’t be totally discounted.

Again we have a short priced Gavin Cromwell runner here, Now Is the Hour, where I simply don’t get the shortened odds. He has undoubtedly not been showing all his card this year to try and get a slimmer mark but 139 has a bit bigger waistline that they would have hoped for. His stand out piece of form comes from very deep ground at Haydock. That’s a specialist track when the ground is deep and it’s like chalk and cheese compared to this course with drier conditions

Selections: HAITI COULEURS 4/1 and TRANSMISSION 11/2 (currently best prices with all firms seeming offering 5 places rather than 6)

Recommendations:

2pts ew Haiti Couleurs

1.5 pts ew Transmission

****

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,

Paul

(I will be posting my thoughts for Wednesday’s card late tomorrow afternoon after scrutinising early results)

Already recommended on previous blog post L’Eau Du Sud 2.40 and Haiti Couleurs 5.20

Already recommended on previous BSky posts – Golden Ace e/w 100/1 4.00; Hot Fuss 33/1 4.40

(Note I have also also recommended Beat the Bat in Wednesday’s Coral Cup at 25/1 on BSky who was also confirmed for the race today and I’ll cover again tomorrow)

 
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Posted by on March 10, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham 2024 – Day 4

14 Mar

Onto the final day’s action 

As I write with 3 races complete on Day 3, the ground appears to be improving a little and is now Soft rather than Heavy. If we get no rain in the next 24 hours, then it could be decent conditions tomorrow. There is currently some rain forecast overnight though. A check of conditions tomorrow morning will influence the strength of some of my picks below. For now, I’m assuming it will be the same as today 

A nice winner on the blog on day 3 with Shakemupharry means recommended bets are now showing a 10.7 pt profit this week from 32 pt staked (including places from Ginnys Destiny and Where It All Began). Golden Ace not recommended but favourably mentioned. Hopefully some latched onto her as well.

A proper JP McManus plot came to fruition in the last with Inothewayurthinking winning easily and justifying a fairly ridiculous looking price of 13/8 in a 22 runner handicap.

A good day for the UK side otherwise with 5 winners from the 7 races

*******

130 Triumph Hurdle 

Sadly, the problems with the Henderson stable meant that ante post favourite Sir Gino was taken out of this race today. At least we got to know the news early so markets could be adjusted in good time 

It’s hard not to see an Irish success with only heavy ground loving SALVER seemingly having any chance for the home side. It’s impossible to equate his form against the Irish but I would suspect he hasn’t beaten too much of note as yet – even if he hasn’t been pushed to do so. 

Most of the Irish runners have been running against each other this season and their form is closely tied. There is no standout contender amongst them. KARGESE came out best at Leopardstown last time but given that was MAJBOROUGH’s first run since leaving France, it would be no surprise to see him improve enough to turn the table. 

NURBURGRING didn’t run there but was only a nose behind KARGESE in his last run. He’s a classy flat staying performer and I feel wasn’t suited at all by the slow pace that day. A stronger gallop here looks to be ideal for him. I like he’s been given a break to freshen up for this and with the stable already winning one juvenile hurdle at this meeting he’s my favoured option. 

SALVATOR MUNDI hasn’t run since April last year when just beaten by Sir Gino in France. That form reads very well now but his preparation has been held up and he was forced to miss the big Leopardstown trial. Coming here on his first run for Mullins is pitching in very deep very quickly. Jockey booking doesn’t suggest he’s the main hope of the Mullins stable either. I suspect he’s more of a project now to keep his maiden status here with novice hurdling in mind next season. 

VERDICT. With the ground not quite as deep as it was, I think the useful flat performer Nurburgring will be favoured most and with some firms offering 4 places will do for me. 

RECOMMENDATION: 1.5 pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (with firms offering 1/5 odds 1234) 

*****

210 County Hcap Hurdle 

Dan Skelton has already been in terrific form at this Festival, and this is the race in which he has always excelled. Both L’EAU DU SUD and last year’s winner FAIVOIR therefore have to be prime contenders here. Both ran very well when they were in 2nd and 5th place in Newbury’s Tote Gold Trophy. FAIVOIR has done that form no harm since. He still remains on a good mark here while L’EAU DU SUD was raised 6 pounds since Newbury. Oddsmakers are well aware of the Skelton record here though so don’t expect generous pricing 

KING OF KINGSFIELD had ABSURDE behind him when both were some way behind the two principles in a hot novice event last time. However, that was behind two horses who have won here since this week. His mark of 140 certainly looks very generous now. I just wonder if he wants better ground, but his class could still see him through 

It’s last year’s race where I go to find an outsider who I think could run well here. It’s always a tough ask for 5-year-olds to do well in handicap hurdles but PETIT TONNERRE didn’t do badly at all to be 6 lengths behind FAIVOIR and the second PIED PIPER. He’s had an interesting time over chases this season where I often got the feeling his mark was being looked after. He reverts to hurdles here and connections have reached for a first-time visor. Six is a much better age for this race and his mark is now 4 pounds lower 

VERDICT. I think a few at the top of the market are just a bit too short so am going for a bit of value with all the extra places being offered 

RECOMMENDATION 0.5 pts ew PETIT TONNERRE (look for 25/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or more) 

*****

250 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 

Soft ground for this longer distance novice event can often throw some surprise winners. It’s sometimes the experience and hardened types who can get their moment in the sun. 

I think there is no more promising novice in the UK than GIDLEIGH PARK, but I do worry if 3 miles in soft ground at this stage of his development could be too much. If he were mine, I’d rather they skipped this race and saved him for Aintree if being honest 

He’s much more attractively priced than READINTOMMYWRONG who also promises to improve again over this trip but is unproven. The price here is no doubt influenced by the power of his stable in the novices department

VERDICT. I’m a big fan of GIDLEIGH PARK and wouldn’t want to back against him. I’d rather back win only here as it’s the type of race I could see many runners being looked after for the future if the test appears to be too much for them 

RECOMMENDATION 

1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK taking 13/2 or better 

*****

330 Cheltenham Gold Cup 

The premier race of the meeting sees rivalry ensued by last year’s impressive winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and FASTORSLOW. They have never met on this course but since have met 3 times and the score is currently 2-1 to FASTORSLOW. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has won the latest duel coming out victorious by 4 lengths 

I can’t really envisage a winner coming outside of these 2. Last year’s Grand National winner CORACH RAMBLER would be dangerous if within spitting distance with half a mile to go but I fear he may get himself too far detached. 

The state of the ground will have some bearing here. The softer it is favours GALOPIN DES CHAMPS but if it dries some more, it gets closer. It’s been noticeable that FASTORSLOW has gained more lengths while jumping than his rival in all their meetings. 

Also worth noting that FASTORSLOW had wind surgery straight after his last run. 

VERDICT. It is the pricing that dictates matter for me here. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is around Evens while FASTORSLOW is around 5/1. I think the former remains the likeliest winner but don’t see the gap between them being as big as odds suggest. I also struggle to see FASTORSLOW out of the frame and with many firms offering an enhanced four places that has to be the value play for me . Mullins Gold Cup winners tend to have come here when they have had a light and easy preparation. This year things haven’t been always so smooth in th warm up to make me think the favourite is a certainty

RECOMMENDATION; 2pts ew FASTORSLOW 5/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

*****

410 Foxhunters Chase 

I’ve never been an expert on the point to point/hunter chase realm so will have to take a pass on it here. The only vibe I really get is that FERNS LOCK would have stamina issues on this trip/ground 

NO BET 

*****

450 Mares Chase 

DINOBLUE’s form is clearly the best here but it all comes at 2 miles. Over an extra half mile on soft ground there has to be a question mark that I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking 11/10 to find out the answer. 

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from BRIDES HILL this season and apparently no horse works better in Gavin Cromwell’s yard. The ground is her issue. I would have no hesitation in backing her here on good to soft or better, but this may be too soft? 

Stablemate LIMERICK LACE will have no such ground issues. She really wants a longer trip but will expose any stamina frailties in rivals. It’s interesting that Keith Donoghue seemed to be certainly riding Brides Hill a week ago but has switched to her. 

ALLEGORIE DE VASSY was second last year but is a quirky mare who definitely has two ways of running. She’s capable of winning but not reliable. 

VERDICT. Not a race for me to get involved with until I’ve seen what the ground is like mid afternoon tomorrow. I do favour the two Cromwell mares’ chances at the prices. If the ground appears to be drying, I’d be with BRIDES HILL. If it remains testing, then I’d favour LIMERICK LACE. But for now……NO BET 

*****

530 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle 

The final race is often full of budding talent that could be beyond the grip of the handicapper. It’s not that long since Galopin Des Champs first advertised his talent in this. 

The market certainly expects QUAI DE BOURBON and WATERFORD WHISPERS to be two such types. Prices of 3/1 and 4/1 in a competitive 23 runner handicap don’t get me jumping in the air with excitement though. WATERFORD WHISPERS’s form is closely tied with ANSWER TO KAYF who is double the price. 

I like the fact that ANSWER TO KAYF has been ridden regularly by the same conditional rider who accompanies him here. I’d just feel a bit happier if John Shinnick had some previous experience on this course. 

A mention also has to be given to OCASTLE DES MOTTES who was a warm favourite for the Tote Gold Trophy but lost his chance when getting upset at the start. He retains a mark that looks generous on his previous French form 

NO ORDINARY JOE was second in this last year off only a 1-pound lower mark. He looked to be being set up for the race again but as he comes from the troubled Henderson stable it’s impossible to be sure if he’ll be 100% here 

VERDICT: I slightly favour ANSWER TO KAYF but am struggling to see any great value in odds available right now’ A couple of firms offering 9/1 on him right now is close to a recommendation for small stakes. I’d ideally like to see him slip out to a double figure price tomorrow to get involved 

NO BET 

****

That’s all for Day 4 and for this year’s Cheltenham Festival 

Hope you have enjoyed reading today and throughout the week 

Paul 

SUMMARY OF DAY 4 RECOMMENDATIONS 

130 1.5pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

210 0.5pts ew PETIT TONNERRE 25/1 (taking 1/5odds 123456) 

250 1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK 13/2 

330 2pts EW FASTORSLOW 5/1 (take 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

TOTAL STAKED 9.5 PTS 

 
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Posted by on March 14, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham 2024 – Day 3

13 Mar

It’s St Patrick’s Thursday today and given what’s already happened so far this week there should be further cause to celebrate in the Emerald Isle today. 

The main vanguard trainer of UK hopes – Nicky Henderson – continues to be having a nightmare of a meeting. Jonbon yesterday and Shishkin (Friday’s Gold Cup) became non-runners due to excessively poor form of stable runners in recent days. There could be more withdrawals to come from that stable before the week is out (Lucky Place did run well today but others most definitely have a problem) 

*****

130 Turners Novices Chase 

Irish hopes for a perfect start today rest mainly with FACILE VEGA. The son of 5 times festival winner Quevega, there has always been mighty expectation of this horse. He won the Bumper here two years ago, then finished second in the meeting opener last year. His chasing career hasn’t gone quite to plan so far, and he is stepped up in trip here in an attempt to put less pressure on his jumping. He has something to prove in the chasing sphere still to me and I think his price is too short compared to his actual chance. 

GREY DAWNING is shortest priced of the home side with the market favouring him to turn round earlier season form with GINNYS DESTINY. I’m not so sure he will. He looks like an impressive horse on flatter tracks but do the undulations here ideally suit? He got beaten by making a shuddering mistake two fences out and I wouldn’t be surprised if his jumping was put under scrutiny again here. 

GINNYS DESTINY is unbeaten here this season and his professional jumping style is always going to be an asset. Whilst it may look on paper he may struggle to confirm form with Grey Dawning, he looked to improve significantly last time out. He didn’t get any easy lead that time but that didn’t bother him at all. To win a very competitive handicap as he did under 12 stones was a top-class effort in my eyes 

IROKO adds further spice and looked like a great prospect early in the season until he got sidelined with injury. It looked like he would be out until next year, but connections have got him back. It would be some feat of training though to get him back to the level required to win this. 

Verdict: GINNYS DESTINY is the most solid option here for me. Firms seem keen to lay him but I can’t figure out quite why. Possibly due to two stable runners performing badly this week? There were excuses for both of them though, so I don’t see any reason to press a panic button there yet. Anyway, his price has drifted from about 3/1 to 5/1 today and I’m not complaining about that 

Recommendation; 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY (take 5/1 if you can but 9/2 also acceptable) 

******

210 Pertemps Network Final Hcap Hurdle 

Horses have to qualify for this by finishing in the first 4 of any ‘heats’ held during the year. The qualification criteria used to be far easier for runners to sneak into the race by not trying too hard (or by not running at all if races were abandoned). It’s much harder to do that now – and that’s a good thing for this race in my view 

MILL GREEN has a very consistent record at the Festival. He has jumped the last hurdle in the lead in this race the last two years and finished 3rd on both occasions (beating all his rivals on the stands side of track both times). He may be 12 now but still looked to have lost nothing of his ability when qualifying last time at Exeter. He looked likely to win then but got hampered and the cause wasn’t persevered with. As a result, his mark wasn’t increased, and it looked like a perfect prep to me. The problem is he is trained by Nicky Henderson – a huge black spot there given what has happened this week. 

Stablemate Lucky Place ran very well yesterday but others most definitely haven’t. He would be a recommendation here, but the stable form is once again impossible to factor in now 

Others of note who may be a little better than their mark: 

CUTHBERT DIBBLE is progressive and in the fullness of time may be better than 139. However, I’d worry about just how hard a race he had last time in desperate ground at Haydock. 

LE MILOS. All his best form comes chasing but he would have a higher handicap mark there. His form this season is noting special but then so was his stablemate Langer Dan. Dan Skelton showed once again yesterday how he can prime one perfectly for a big handicap hurdle here. 

ICARE ALLEN. Hasn’t run since qualifying in November. Could easily be plotted up for this. Most of his form at 2 miles but that has looked patently too short a trip for him lately. Go back to his Triumph hurdle 4th in 2022 and you would say he is thrown in here..but there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then 

VERDICT. I’m hoping the old boy Mill Green hasn’t come down with whatever is plaguing his stable, he could easily be declared a non-runner yet. I have backed him ante post but couldn’t put him up as a bet now with all the doubts around 

NO BET 

*******

250 Ryanair Chase 

BANBRIDGE would be the one to beat here on his favoured good ground. He was taken out of the meeting last year when the ground was soft – not as soft as this – and I’m surprised he’s still running. Don’t be surprised to see him pulled out yet and a deduction made to all prices being offered. 

I see this as a wide-open race where I can give some sort of a chance to everything. 

Because of that it’s a NO BET race on this side…. if someone put a gun to my head to make a selection, I’d still probably end up giving out three of four! 

*****

330 Stayers Hurdle 

TEAHUPOO came third here last year when favourite. He’s been kept fresher this year and he is most definitely the one to beat in my mind. The price at under 2/1 is just a bit too low now after he has come in for recent support.

SIRE DU BERLAIS and DASHEL DRASHER beat him last year when they started racing very early and it turned into a war to get home up the hill. Both them and PAISLEY PARK are firmly in the veteran stage now but would be very popular winners 

If it did turn into a similar power battle though they should all fear NOBLE YEATS who uses this as prep race for the Grand National and will stay every yard of this trip and much more.

I do think a year older TEAHUPOO will be too strong for all of these though. 

CRAMBO is the UK’s new young hope. It would be great for local trainer, cake-loving Fergal O’Brien to get his first Festival success here. There can’t be many more popular trainers in the game. I would like to have seen some course form from him coming into this though 

VERDICT; TEAHUPOO would have to be my selection but he’s a bit too short to recommend a bet on. 

*****

410 Plate Hcap Chase 

CREBILLY is the JP McManus plot horse here. His form certainly makes you think his mark of 140 is lenient. I have a major worry here though that all his best form comes in small fields and a 21-runner handicap may be his undoing. 7/2 represents no value to me with this in mind

THEATRE MAN has already got some of ante post money at 10/1 and his chances will get a big boost if Ginnys Destiny (who beat him last time out) wins the opener. Harry Cobden is a great booking, but the value now seems to have been sucked out of his price a bit. 

There is still a bit of juice in the odds of SHAKEM UP’HARRY though. He seemed to take his form up a level here on New Years Day and has done well to be raised only 3 pounds from that. He was only a pound lower when third in this race last year and is arguably a better horse now. With Harry Redknapp owning this one expect some scenes if he wins! 

I have to give an honourable mention to a big outsider in STRAW FAN JACK. He has dropped to a very attractive mark after two lack-lustre runs recently. He’d probably prefer better ground but if Sheila Lewis has found an answer to his problems, I think he is very well in on his back form 

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12345 

*****

420 Mares Novices Hurdle 

This could be one of the highlights of the meetings with 4 very classy looking young mares facing off. 

DYSART ENOS and GOLDEN ACE head the home team. The former came out easily best in Aintree’s bumper last season. Golden Ace looks to have improved this season though with hurdles now brought in. 

They have both been campaigned away from the top level this season to avoid getting a penalty for this race. 

Consequently, these two will receive 5 pounds from the two Irish favourites. 

Willie Mullins’s record in mares’ races speaks for itself and in any other year, JADE DE GRUGY, would be the natural favourite here. She has a strong reputation but the vibes from Gordon Elliott’s yard have been so strong for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. The ‘best horse he’s ever had’ has been mooted here – and that is from a stable that has had some very big stars of the past 

Verdict. I find it hard to ignore the vibes for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. This is a bit like Fact to File yesterday, in that one side of me is saying that price is too short and should be laid, but the other side is telling me she could be very special. If any firm offered 4 places on this race I’d be tempted to take GOLDEN ACE. She’s looked very good herself but may be up against the impossible this time. There is huge difference between getting 3 or 4 places for your each-way bets on this race 

NO BET 

****

530 Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys Hcap 

INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN heads the market here and does have the look of another McManus plot. He’s looked like he’s been held back a bit at times in an effort to get a decent mark here – and he does have about the best amateur jockey available in Derek O’Connor. His mark of 145 might be a tad generous compared to his hurdling form but not by that much. His price is too low for me given he has to shoulder top weight here and the trip is a complete unknown. 

AMIRITE could be well in off 142 but seems to need much better ground. BOWTOGREATNESS could also win something decent off 133 but his best form seems to come on flat tracks. 

WHEREITALLBEGAN would probably love a longer trip but on this soft ground – and a likely too quick pace in an amateur race – that could bring his stamina into play. He’s on a much higher mark than his last win but that was a very clear-cut victory. He is part of a good Gordon Elliott challenge here. FAKIR D’ALENE was 4th in this race two years ago off a one-pound higher mark (four pounds if we count Rob James’s claim). His last two runs haven’t been inspiring, but the back form is definitely there 

ANGELS DAWN won this last year but is on an 11-pound higher mark now and much more exposed than he was. 

For the home team, I like RAPPER, who can be in an out, but has performed well at this course before. We can ignore his ‘pulled up’ effort in this race last year as he bled from the nose. A return to form was signaled last time out and he is now on a 4-pound lower mark than last season. He’s won twice off 137 before – is on 138 now but with Anthony O’Neill’s 3 pound claim he is effectively 135. Anthony doesn’t ride too often but being the son of Jonjo O’Neill, I don’t think we can question his pedigree for this! 

VERDICT. With 6 places available with some firms, I’m backing three here. The first two should be in the form to be very competitive – the third needs to bounce back but I feel is a bit overpriced 

RECOMMENDATIONS 

1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN taking 12/1 or better with firms offering 6 places 

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 or better with 6 places 

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE taking 25/1 or better with 6 places 

(5pts in total staked) 

That’s a wrap for Day 3 

Thanks for reading and best of luck with whatever you back 

Paul 

SUMMARY OF DAY 3 RECOMMENDATIONS 

130 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY 5/1 (1/5 123) 

410 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1(1/5 odds 12345) 

530 1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 12/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE 25/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

Total staked on day 11 pts

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival Day 2 – 2024

12 Mar

The second day of the Cheltenham Festival has somehow acquired the moniker of ‘Style Wednesday’. Whilst not attending the meeting I’ll have to remember to don my smoking jacket and cravat now for tomorrow’s fare! If you are going – and the weather is the same as on Tuesday morning – the ‘style’ decision maybe what colour Hunter wellies to wear. 

A quick resume of Tuesday’s action first: 

The stable form of Nicky Henderson was given no boost at all by Jeriko Du Reponet pulling up in the opener. Luccia did run well in the Champion Hurdle but Iberico Lord and Maries Rock also underperformed badly. 

More rain than was expected contributed to some very testing heavy ground.  It’s been dry during today and with little rain on the forecast tomorrow it may slip back to Soft going. There is an inspection at 8am for the Cross Country course which was waterlogged today. That will only affect the 410 race but if that does get cancelled we may get some time changes on the remainder of the card 

A great start to the meeting for this blog with Slade Steel winning the opener. Unfortunately couldn’t add any more but The Goffer (ground too heavy for him I ear) and Milan Tino crept into advised places. That ends up with a 3.3 pt profit on the days recommendations.

Tomorrow isn’t as appealing generally on the betting front for me but my thoughts with a few recommendations below

*****

130 Gallaghers Novices Hurdle 

Not the most competitive look to the opener with the Willie Mullins stable fielding 5 of the 8 runners – including the first 3 in the betting. 

BALLYBURN has had the appearance of being a banker in whichever race he ran here in for a while. The victory of his latest victim, Slade Steel, in Tuesday’s opener has cemented this even more. Stamina and ground don’t look to be in question so it’s hard to see any other winner now. 

If the UK side do have a surprise up their sleeve it should be HANDSTANDS. Ben Pauling knows what it takes to win this race after Willoughby Court in 2017.  This one is full of potential and unbeaten in four races – albeit at a lower level. He is being chucked in at the deep end now but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him run well. (Pauling had no issues about the deep ground for Handstands today when asked on Racing TV) 

VERDICT 

Ballyburn should win but the price is too short for me to recommend. I admit to a small each way bet ante post on Handstands at 16/1 but that guarantees 3 places. Here would need the 8 runners all to start to get that and I think the task ahead of him increased after todays action 

NO BET 

*****

210 Brown Advisory Novices Chase 

Another small field with only six here. FACT TO FILE has been the subject of glowing reviews from his stable and in preview evenings coming into this. ‘The next Gold Cup winner’ is a general vibe. I’d normally like to take his profile on given he has beaten very few horses in small fields. However, he did so in some very good times. I the combination of trip and ground isn’t an issue for him I’m inclined to think there may be something behind the hype here. At around EVS I wouldn’t want to bet him, but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either. 

He appeared to break the will of his only rival Gaelic Warrior last time. That one did no harm to the form though on Tuesday! 

STAY AWAY FAY won the 3-mile novice hurdle here last season and we can expect him to try and make this a test to exploit any stamina chinks. I think his connections may have preferred a bigger field though where he wouldn’t have to do all the donkey work himself. 

MONTYS STAR looks a similar staying type to Stay Away Fay but wrapped up in a larger form. He didnt perform well on the course last year – that’s a negative but his stable have been performing well on day one

SANDOR CLEGANE was a bit unlucky behind Stay Away Fay here last season and at the start of the season was of interest to me for this race. He hasn’t looked like the most natural chaser so far though. His run last time looked to be a confidence boosting one to get him round safely. If he can jump quicker, I can see him running well at a price. But this isn’t the track or level of race to be on learning on 

VERDICT 

Another race that doesn’t entice me in to bet. Fact to File is my idea of the winner but again I don’t see enough value in the price to get involved 

NO BET 

****

250 Coral Cup 

Some disappointment for me now coming into this competitive handicap. I had DODDIETHEGREAT and LUCKY PLACE marked down as my early picks. They are both trained by Nicky Henderson though and after day 1, the stable form there remains a major concern. 

The form of Doddiethegreat’s last run has been hugely boosted since and he looked like the step up in trip here would suit him greatly. 

Lucky Place’s latest course run against a very talented rival in Gidleigh Park was form that surpassed his mark of 137 in my view. The softer ground here would be a small question mark 

They would have both been a recommendation but for the elephant in the room that now exists! 

SA MAJESTE looks like a typical well hyped but underpriced Willie Mullins runner in a handicap. He’s fairly impossible to handicap, is very inexperienced and could be ten pounds well in or ten pounds badly in. As my post from last week suggests, following Mullins in handicaps isn’t the road to riches. 

BUILT BY BALLYMORE is much more one to be wary of. The market isn’t taking any chances here though. Trainer Martin Brassil is possibly the most underrated trainer in Ireland and had two close seconds in handicaps at last year’s Festival. Again, it’s hard to handicap him properly but the team behind is much more one to fear in this kind of scenario in my mind 

I’ve backed BALLYADAM at the Festival before but feel better ground will suit him 

LANGER DAN won this race off the same mark last year and having performed so well at this time of the year before has to be on the shortlist. Again, I’m not sure if the ground might be riding a bit too deep for him though 

MIGHT I will have no problems with the ground and ran well at the Festival last year off a higher mark. He’s spent this season chasing so far – and not very successfully. If that hasn’t taken its toll and Harry Fry has managed to get him back to his best, he would be a big runner here 

VERDICT: I thought I had this race cornered but the huge issue of Henderson stable form has prevented me getting involved at this stage 

NO BET 

*****

330 Queen Mother Champion Chase 

A few weeks ago, this looked like a two-horse race with EL FABIOLO and JONBON renewing rivalry. El Fabiolo was much the best in the Arkle last year and remains unbeaten in 6 chase races. Interest has been boosted though by a renaissance of form from 2022 Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE.  

Alan King’s runner had been comfortable held by Jonbon twice this season when given hold up rides. However, he was allowed to bowl along up front last time and put in an exemplary round of precision jumping to win easily at Newbury. 

This race now revolves around Edwardstone being given free rein up front once more. If he performs like he did at Newbury his superior jumping could take others out of their comfort zone. Both El Fabiolo and Jonbon can make mistakes (the latter appears to be getting worse and was even seen belting a fence in schooling on YouTube recently). 

If he can get in such a rhythm and unsettle the others, it’s then a question of him having enough in the tank to last home in soft ground. 

I think El Fabiolo is still the most likely winner here, but I wouldn’t be touching him at short odds. 

I can easily see Edwardstone bettering Jonbon this time though. 

CAPTAIN GUINNESS was second in this last year and could also benefit if ridden quietly behind the principals and pick rivals off late. He was a sick horse at Christmas and was patently looked after in an encouraging reappearance at Leopardstown in February. I’m not sure he’d have wanted all the rain that came early this week though. Some drying ground and I can see him placing again

The presence of another front runner in GENTLEMAN DU MEE and prominent racer ELIXIR DE NUTZ should ensure this race is run at a good clip. There should be no hiding places for any of them here 

VERDICT. Whilst thinking El Fabiolo might well win I see more value in supporting Edwardstone each way. I can’t imagine they won’t employ the same tactics as suited him so well last time. I’d also like him in the Betting Without favourite market 

Recommendation 

1pt ew EDWARDSTONE – generally available 15/2 (as there are 8 runners 3 places will be paid. If there is a non-runner this may revert to 2 places but always worth checking if some firms offer the more advantageous 3 places) 

*****

410 Cross Country Chase 

However soft/heavy the regular track is, the cross-country course is reported to be worse. I’ve been no fan of this style of race for betting for many years and will happily pass again. It seems to have developed into a race for Gold Cup veterans these days 

A fairly categoric (as usual in this race) NO BET 

****

450 Grand Annual Hcap Chase 

This race was always a regular target for Nicky Henderson as it is run in honour of his father. We don’t need to worry about stable form this time as he doesn’t have a runner this year. 

The market seems to think SAINT ROI has been laid out for the race, but I couldn’t touch him given the abysmal jumping he displayed at Leopardstown last time veering violently to the right at times. 

HARPERS BROOK is extremely quirky but has found a niche for his talents at two miles this season. He carries a health warning though as he is prone to stop when in front. If he is 10 lengths clear at last don’t assume he has it in the bag. If you back him a lay bet on Betfair Exchange at short odds is strongly encouraged for some insurance. 

PATH D’OROUX is an interesting contender from a stable that knows how to plot for race like this. He will like the ground but is his jumping good enough? 

LIBBERTY HUNTER is the progressive novice in the pack that often does well in this race but has to defy a large rise from the handicapper. MADARA is also on an upward curve but 13 pounds higher than his last win at this track. 

TRIPLE TRADE caught Harpers Brook on the run in at Ascot earlier in the season and reopposes on the same terms. However, he is a much larger price as his latest run at Lingfield was disappointing. That looked to be bad to be true. He has looked to be suited by the uphill finish here before. The ground is a slight question mark but as he’s won on heavy earlier in his career. The Tizzard team may not have the best record in handicaps here but they were in good form over the weekend 

VERDICT; I’m willing to give Triple Trade a chance to get his progression back on track here given the odds available 

Recommendation:  

0.5 pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (generally available with 1/5 odds 12345 – 6 places in one place) 

*****

530 Champion Bumper 

Another specialist race with no jumping involved. It’s a nursery in essence for next year’s hurdling novice hurdle events. Willie Mullins traditionally has a great record and has won 4 of the last 6 runnings. That’s not surprising though given he many runners he normally fields. This year he fields 9 of the 24 runners. 

If jockey bookings are a sign, then his favoured would be JASMIN DE VAUX (Patrick Mullins) and CANTICO (Paul Townend). 

That doesn’t always go to plan here though and he has won with bigger priced runners as well. 

My eye is mainly drawn to C’EST TA CHANCE who was the subject of positive reports before Christmas. He was narrowly beaten by William Munny is his only start but after that one looked really special on his next start; the form doesn’t look bad at all. 

THE YELLOW CLAY from Gordon Elliott’s stable was the eyecatcher in the main trial race for this at Leopardstown in February. I’m just a little concerned that stable jockey jack Kennedy has chosen JALON D’OUDAIRES instead. 

Verdict: Not a race to go wild on with stakes but I’m willing to take a chance on C’est Ta Chance at decent odds 

Recommendation 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 16/1 or better (take with firms offering 1/5 odds 12345 if possible) 

Thanks for reading once more and good luck 

Paul 

WEDNESDAY RECOMMENDATIONS 

330 1pt ew EDWARDSTONE 15/2  

450 0.5pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (taking 1/5 odds 123) 

530 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 161 (taking 1/5 odds 123) 

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2024 – Day 1

11 Mar

The time has come again for this blog to come alive for a week of what should be National Hunt racing’s premier meeting. 

But first some personal venting of the spleen…on a subject that has come to the fore this season. 

It must be said this year there is a bit less excitement coming into the event than usual. For a purist, like myself, who has been an avid watcher since the mid 1970s, there definitely isn’t the same buzz about Festival that there used to be. 

Extra races over recent years have resulted in too many choices of options to run in. This dilution has now, more than ever, resulted in too many uncompetitive championship races with smaller fields and short priced favourites. Coming into the meeting, it used to be clear which horses would be racing there. Now it can be a complete guessing game until final declarations are made. A couple of weeks ago we had two horses listed at 4/7 to win the Champion Hurdle. This just looked plain farcical. 

Thankfully, the prospect of a fifth day for the Festival now seems to have passed and hopefully a return to less races can be done to avoid completely destroying the goose that laid this golden egg! 

With lower prize money in the UK, the domination of Irish powerhouse trainers has spiraled to make the lack of competition even worse. The cost of attending a day at the Festival has also risen to crazy proportions. 

Hopefully these issues can be looked at. On a personal level, I’d like to see mid distance championship races and mares championship races moved to a meeting like Aintree. This would allow the best horses to compete against each other in the same races here and to still have the option to double up! 

That’s enough ranting for the week anyway!…..onto the racing itself, which will hopefully still present some betting opportunities throughout the 4 days ahead. 

The Week ahead and some useful sites… 

It looks certain that we’ll be starting om some taxing soft ground for Day 1 after more rain fell on the track over the weekend. Local trainers have already been reporting that the ground is saturated after so much winter rain. However good the Cheltenham drainage might be, it must be near impossible to dry out in the time left to get to the usual good/good to soft start for the meeting this year. 

Regular updates on the ground throughout the meeting can be found on this page https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/ 

The best site to check out the various odds from different firms (and where to find the best place terms) is here https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival. This will show where the best odds can be found but also which place terms are being offered. It makes a world of difference to the value of a bet if one firm pays 4 places and another pays only 3. I’ll often post that a bet is best taken where the place terms are enhanced for that reason 

As I’ve mentioned in the past, a knowledge of statistics from previous years is always useful to have in your armoury. No better place to get these than www.gaultstats.com 

****

Onto Tuesday’s card and some personal thoughts: 

130 Supreme Novice Hurdle 

The dominance of the Willie Mullins stable in recent years is perfectly encapsulated here as 6 of the 12 runners are trained by him. Apart from seeing who his number one jockey, Paul Townend, has chosen to ride (TULLYHILL here), you’d really need to be privy to some inside info from the Closutton gallops to know how they really compare. Until recently, it seemed the stable number one would be Ballyburn – but with that one switching to Wednesday’s longer race the waters have muddies some more. 

We therefore don’t have a previous Grade 1 winner in the race, and also (unusually) nothing with any respectable previous course form in the field. 

Both TULLYHILL and MYSTICAL POWER (Townend wouldn’t have had choice to ride as Mark Walsh in number one jockey for owner) have undoubted ability but their jumping ability hasn’t always impressed. 

Gordon Elliott is represented by FIREFOX who has to bounce back from a disappointing effort over a longer trip last time out. Prior to that he had defeated Ballyburn. Whilst that form reads well the reports suggest it was a falsely run race that developed into a late sprint. The form may not be quite as good as it initially looks, and almost certainly Ballyburn improved massively afterwards with more forceful tactics being employed 

The UK team is fronted by JERIKO DU REPONET but there is a real question mark over the form of his stable. Apart from Spring Note’s win last weekend, Nicky Henderson has had a torrid time of late. His ace hurdler, Constitution Hill, had to be pulled out of the Champion Hurdle with blood tests explaining some significantly below par home workouts. Several other runners recently have been pulled up to only emphasize how bad stable form is. The performance of Jeriko Du Reponet is going to be a serious benchmark for the rest of the week. There is a definite risk factor in backing him with this in mind. 

The most solid option for me is Henry De Bromhead’s SLADE STEEL who chased home Ballyburn last time and runs here to avoid that horse again. I can imagine that something was still left to work on with him that day, but he was still well clear of the rest of the field and had solid winning form on soft ground before. 

It could well be that the Mullins team think they still have the firepower to beat him. However, at a price of 9/2 or more and some firms offering 4 places, I struggle to imagine that there are more than 3 horses here who can beat him. Assuming he comes in the first four at that price it still means virtually money back in case Mullins team retain an ace in their pack. 

Additionally, there is no problem with the current form of the De Bromhead stable. Out of 6 runners on Sunday, they had 3 winners and 3 placed! 

VERDICT. 

Back Slade Steel at 9/2 or more with firms offering Each way 1/5 odds 1234  

2PTS ew SLADE STEEL at 9/2 or better with four places 

****

210 Arkle Trophy 

A championship race for novice chasers over 2 miles – and thank goodness we have a competitive one. Some renewals of this race recently have had short-priced favourites and low fields. Here we have a field of 10 and apart from rank outsider, AUTHORISED SPEED, I can make a case for all of them (and a negative for all as well) 

This scenario would normally scream out ‘No Bet’ for me so I’d only play if the odds on something were well above what I expected. 

GAELIC WARRIOR and FOUND A FIFTY have both performed well on similar left handed tracks before but have shown a marked tendency to jump to the right in doing so. That’s too big an issue for me to ignore here. 

IL ETAIT TEMPS has yet to replicate his Leopardstown form elsewhere and was disappointing for me here in last years opener after a similar preparation. 

HUNTERS YARN is inexperienced, and while also very promising, he also ran below par on only Festival outing last year. 

I don’t think QUILIXIOS is the same horse as he was when winning the Triumph Hurdle here as a 4yo but he looks a safe jumper who can keep out of trouble at the front of the race. 

MATATA may well be up front with him and has performed well at the track before. A slight worry here that Daryl Jacob could have ridden him but chose Hunters Yarn 

JPR ONE beat MATATA by half a length last time out at Lingfield and would have won here before Christmas but for an unfortunate fall. The Tizzard team was in good form over the weekend so he should not be underestimated but a tendency to idle in front could make him vulnerable on the final hill here. 

MASTER CHEWY was 8 lengths back at Lingfield but he lost all chance there at a first fence incident. We can safely ignore that and his performance in a fast run event at Kempton over Christmas gives him every chance if he can be delivered late. Tom Bellamy was on board there and I’m glad to see him reunited (Sam Twiston Davies riding his stablemate Matata) . Does he need a flat track though is a slight concern 

If the ground was good I’d definitely be picking MY MATE MOZZIE to have the race set up for him to come late. Soft ground probably isn’t his ideal surface but it isn’t completely against him judged on his past form 

VERDICT. A tight race that I won’t b recommending a bet on given all the positives and negatives. There’s too many negatives for me for those at the front of the betting. If I had to choose one it would be My Mate Mozzie but I can see the home side of JPR One, Matata and Master Chewy all having a chance at decent odds. The Irish contingent would all have been better hurdlers but these 3 UK runners have all improved a lot for going chasing. 

*Take note only a handful of firms offer 4 places here which would make a big difference if having an each way bet 

*****

250 Ultima Hcap Chase 

A typically competitive handicap where MEETINGOFTHEWATERS has been popular early after some favourable comments in recent preview evenings. He was given a ‘Gold Cup winner in waiting’ tag at one and could be ‘a stone well in’. The price is short as a result with layers understandably scared of his mercurial trainer, Emmet Mullins. 

If he is as good as those whispers mooted he might well win but on his actual form he is too short a price for me. 

THE GOFFER is vying with him for favouritism and is much more justifiably priced. His fourth in this race off a 2lb higher mark was a fine effort considering what the 1st and 2nd in that race went on to do (Corach Rambler and Fastorslow). A recent win in a charity race won’t show up on his form stats but looks an ideal low key prep for this. Soft ground will be fine (if it got any worse it may be a slight concern). His trainer Gordon Elliott comes out well on previous handicap stats so that’s an additional positive 

Novice chasers also have a good record in this and I also have to support TRELAWNE in this race. He’s racing over shorter trips this season and performing well – but he looks for all the world that 3 miles will bring out further improvement. The booking of Harry Cobden is an added bonus and I’m pleased to see cheekpieces are retained. The lack of headgear at Wetherby seemed to contribute to some wayward hanging to the right that was corrected next time out. 

Low weights can be favoured in this race and would take my eye but only 2 have crept in below 11 stone this year. WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT could be well handicapped and his poor last run was explained by a fibrillating heart. He still has a bit to prove with that condition in mind but if he did come back to form he would have a chance. GEVREY also get another honourable mention at big odds. He outperformed at this meeting last year when placing at 125/1. He’s higher weighted now but now it’s springtime again I could see his form take a leap again 

VERDICT: A tight race where I’ll be backing THE GOFFER and TRELAWNE and looking for 6/1 and 8/1 respectively. Ideally taking them with books offering 6 places  

1pt ew each THE GOFFER 6/1 and TRELAWNE 8/1 (ew 1/5 odds 123456) 

*****

330 Champion Hurdle 

The supposed Premier race of the day is the least attractive for betting in my eyes. The defection of the clear champion in the 2-mile hurdling realm (he would have been a short priced favourite) has only served to give us another likely winner at short odds. STATE MAN was clearly second best last year, but is seemingly way ahead of the rest in this division. At best odds of around 2/5 it’s not hard to say he’s the likely winner and he should win this. As long as there remain 8 runners there is an each way option of getting 3 places but nothing is leaping out to me as guaranteed to be 2nd or 3rd. A race I’ll happily just watch. 

VERDICT. State Man should win but no bet at restrictive odds 

****

410 Mares Hurdle 

Team Mullins again dominates the betting here with LOSSIEMOUTH favourite at around 4/6 and stable mate ASHROE DIAMOND the only rival at single figure odds. Ideally, we would have seen Lossiemouth contending the previous race against State Man and these two races would have suddenly become more competitive.  

I’m not sure the combination of trip and ground is ideal for Ashroe Diamond here to be seen to her best advantage. The ground is probably less of a problem for Lossiemouth but the trip of two and a half miles is a step into the unknown. She did look more of a speed horse to me last year 

To exploit any stamina chinks. Something else will have to make this race a test to negate the favourite’s turn of foot, The trouble is I’m not sure who will as there isn’t an obvious front runner in the field. 

MARIES ROCK has won the race before and will stay but can run too freely and is best being held up (also comes with the Henderson stable form question mark). LOVE ENVOI was second last year and appeals most as the one who could benefit from a test on the likely soft ground…but will she have to make her own running to do it? She certainly won’t get any help from any of the 4 Mullins runners. Last year’s Mares Novice winner YOU WEAR IT WELL led all the way and could be an influence in the outcome of this race if similar tactics are employed again. 

VERDICT. Lossiemouth the likeliest winner but given the possible stamina issue I won’t be backing at prohibitive odds. LOVE ENVOI appeals as the best each way option. Her chances will be increased if there is a good pace on testing ground. No enhanced place terms here at time of writing so just a small each bet at 14/1 recommended 

0.5 pts ew LOVE ENVOI 14/1 

*****

450 Boodles Juvenile Hcap Hurdle 

It’s slightly weird to see the Paul Nicholls stable having their only runner of the day here with top weight LIARI. He’s unbeaten in 3 races this season and so carries a justifiable top weight here. I have to be put off by the recent years’ stats on Nicholls in handicaps (see my post last week). All his wins have also been on flat tracks, completely different to here. 

Early favourite LARK IN THE MORNING may well be well handicapped but I can’t help but think he would prefer better ground and I’m much more taken by the chances of market rival MILAN TINO. 

Connections must have been over the moon to see his mark dropped to 126 for this race (had been 136 based on his French form). The soft ground here should be right up his street and with course experience already gained I make him the one to beat. 

At much bigger odds I also like another course winner AN BRADAN FEASA, who had Milan Tino behind him here earlier in the season. 

On the face of it, he may struggle to reverse Musselburgh form with Liari who beat him 8 lengths and is only 5 pounds better off. However, I’d very much have seen that as a prep run where he might not have been fully tuned up – and this being his prime target on a course he has performed well at before. There has been some 40/1 available on him which is far too big for me…33/1 would also be very acceptable to me in a race where extra places will be paid 

ROARING LEGEND also ran very well in that Musselburgh race but has disappointed on soft ground since. I fear the soft ground will be against him again here but should conditions suddenly improve he would become an interesting outsider as well. 

Recommendations 

1.5 pts ew MILAN TINO 6/1 or more  

0.5 pts ew AN BRADAN FEASA 33/1 or better 

(taking firms offering 6 places rather than 5 if possible) 

*****

530 National Hunt Chase 

Another race that has been changed in recent years. It used to be over 4 miles and qualifying criteria was aimed at slow maturing types who didn’t have a back catalogue of wins in their earlier career. That used to supply a consistently large field but the new criteria has resulted in small fields and taken away horses from Wednesday’s 3-mile novice event. 

We have 7 runners declared this year – and at least a more competitive look than we’ve had on some other recent editions. It’s possible to give all seven a chance. 

There is often a gulf between the top amateur riders in Ireland and those in the UK but the seven we have here do not include any that would put me off having a bet. 

I can find some negatives for those at the front of the betting here. 

CORBETTS CROSS’s fall last time wasn’t his fault but it’s still not ideal as a preparation. His run at the Festival last year when in contention but running out at the final hurdle is also a slight cause for concern. Stamina for this extended trip on soft ground also gives me enough of a doubt at short odds. 

EMBASSY GARDENS did even worse here last year – a performance attributed to him ‘boiling over’ in the preliminaries. You’d want to see the huge crowds aren’t having an effect on him again here. Stamina is less of a problem, but I wouldn’t be going overboard about his latest win. While impressively beating Sandor Clegane, the latter looked to have more of a confidence boosting run on the side of the track with patently worse ground. 

SALVADOR ZIGGY has so much form on decent ground that I have to feel the soft conditions here may be a negative for him. 

This leads me to bigger prices KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY as better options. Both were just behind HENRYS FRIEND last time but on this softer ground and stiffer trip I can see a reverse.on the cards 

With 7 runners, most firms will only offer 2 places each way here, but some are offering 3 places as enhanced terms and that’s here to go 

VERDICT; KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY both appeal as each way bets with firms offering the 1/5 odds 123 enhancement 

1pt ew on both KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY taking 10/1 or better with that place enhancement recommended. (4pts stake in total)

*****

That concludes Tuesday’s fare. I’ll be back on Tuesday evening with a preview for Wednesday after digesting the first day’s results (Henderson stable form on day one could well be a big factor for forthcoming days)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back 

Paul 

Summary of Tuesday Recommendations:

130 2pts ew Slade Steel 9/2 or better taking 1/5 odds 1234

250 1pt ew The Goffer 6/1; 1pt ew Trelawne 8/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12456

410 0.5pts ew Love Envo1 14/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 123

450 1.5pts ew Milan Tino 6/1 or better; 0.5 pts ew An Bradan Feasa 33/1 or better (taking 1/5 odds 123456)

530 1pt ew Kilbeg King; 1pt ew Apple Away – taking 10/1 or better on both with selected firms who offer 1/5 odds 123

(total 17 pts staked on day 1)

 
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Posted by on March 11, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2024 – How do the top trainers perform in handicaps?

27 Feb

With only a couple of weeks ago – and some time on my hands – an early post on the blog this year. With weights due to be published today for the handicap races, I’ve been looking how the top trainers have performed in them over the past 5 festivals.

There are some definite winners and losers highlighted in the tables below. While its always easier to see how your money would go profit/loss wise to a one unit stake, I was also interested in each way performance here.

While the standard each way terms of 1/4 1234 for handicaps of 16 or more runners seem rare to find these days, I’ve applied the enhanced terms of 1/5 123456 which should be quite commonly offered this year.

This covers the 4 handicap chases and 5 handicap hurdles run at the meeting (and also the two runnings of the now defunct novices chase handicap from 2019 and 2020)

Hcap Chases: Ultima, Grand Annual, Plate, Kim Muir

H’cap Hurdles: Boodles, Coral Cup, Pertemps Final, County Hurdle, M Pipe

Findings below are using the recorded SP (it taking an early price and getting Best Odds Guaranteed this could give a higher figure still):

This covers the trainers with most runners in each sphere over the last 5 years. There will be other trainers with a good profit figure but with less overall runners that is largely due to one horse (e.g Corach Rambler twice a winner for Lucinda Russell in hcap chases would skew figures dramatically)

We can see who is doing well – and who can be expensive to follow

GORDON ELLIOTT (also includes Denise Foster for the year she ‘stepped in to cover’ in 2021

Given how many runners he throws in, it’s surprising to see how well you would have come out by backing all of his horses each way blindly – both in hurdles and chases! He is running near to 4 horses in each handicap hurdle – way above all other trainers. You don’t need to be focusing on his perceived number one runner either. Commander of Fleet won the 2022 Coral Cup as a 50/1 outsider ahead of 6 other stablemates including a 9/2 favourite. Last year, Jazzy Matty winning at 18/1 in Boodles and a 125/1 4th place from Gevrey in the Plate were principal each way contributors to coffers.

WILLIE MULLINS

The Mullins team will be dominant again in non handicaps but they are obviously less bothered when it comes to handicaps and come with a financial health warning. They may well be priced too short as well given his perceived dominance so they when they do occasionally come in you won’t be profiting too much. (E.g State Man went off a very low 11/4 fav when winning the 2022 County Hurdle

PAUL NICHOLLS

Once a trainer to be feared in handicaps, the wheel have well and truly fallen off in recent year. Nicholls hasn’t had a handicap win since Le Prezien in 2018 and we have to go back to 2016 to find some consistent strength in these figures. This suggests his runners may well be too exposed to the handicapper by the time they come here. This could well be explained by changes of staff who were more wise to the planning for such races (see the figures of his once assistant Dan Skelton below). Nicholls still must be feared in graded races, but for now he seems one to avoid in handicaps

NICKY HENDERSON

Some interesting figures here. You wouldn’t be in profit by backing him win only but he’s had a much higher proportion of places than others and consistently been profitable on the each way side (nearly half of all his hurdlers finishing in to 6). The evergreen Mill Green has been a prime contributor in last 4 seasons (3rd, 3rd, 6th and 7th at 22/1,33/1, 40/1 and 66/1). Whilst certainly not appearing thrown in he has generally run his best race of the season here and although now 12 he’s still one to remember in this year’s Pertemps when extra places are added. What we do have to bear in mind here though is stable form. It’s dire right now – and highlighted by stable star Constitution Hill failing to shine in a gallop today. Some checking will be required in 10 days time to see if there is some light again in that tunnel!

DAN SKELTON

Skelton has always been known for being able to target a handicap and it’s in hurdles where he performs best. We can break that down even more and say the County Hurdle is most definitely a speciality. Faivoir 33/1 and Chtibello 12/1 have both won in last 5 years in that race – go back a bit further and we can add Mohayyed 33/1 and Superb Story 8/1

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

De Bromhead seems to be a bit less selective in his runners in recent years – maybe he is also concentrating more on graded races. He still is showing a profit in chases though with Maskada’s win in 2023 ‘s Grand Annual at 22/1 keeping his figures high. Hurdles profit/loss is less inspiring. (Also a good chance here that the popularity of any runners ridden by Rachel Blackmore may shorten prices)

VENETIA WILLIAMS

The trainer to keep on side in the Plate in times past (33/1 and 50/1 winners in there), Venetia did suffer a bit of a drought until a 40/1 win and 66/1 place in the 2022 Kim Muir served to remind us she shouldnt be forgotten quite yet. Traditionally she’s one to fear a bit more when the going is soft. Hurdles would be much less her thing

JOE TIZZARD (following on from father Colin)

Again getting the feeling here that his runners have had their marks exposed too much by the time this meeting arrives

******

Hopefully some food for thought here, in particular to the each way angle on Cheltenham handicaps

For a wide variety of other stats, there is no point me writing them up when the excellent http://www.gaultstats.com has already got them in bucketloads (if using dont forget to donate to the cause that prompted all the work that has one into it)

Blog will be back in just under 2 weeks with some race analysis again this year – Cheltenham Festival runs from 12-15 March

Until then, thanks for reading,

Paul

 
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Posted by on February 27, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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