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Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Day 1 and Day 2 thoughts

Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Tuesday and Wednesday thoughts

For any annual followers of my Cheltenham musings – welcome back!

As per usual, I’ll try to work through all races again highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll always have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself (if I can get on which is sometimes easier said than done with some firms). Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.

I’ve had to be less active on my social media accounts this winter (Winter Olympics has kept my compiling head too busy earlier this year) and there are very few early picks put up this year. It would be very hard to ever come close to matching last year’s ante post 100/1 winner in any case! I will try to put up any extra thoughts throughout the meeting on X or Blue Sky (account details at bottom of this post). (Vanillier in Wednesday’s Cross Country Chase and Bold Endeavour in Thursday’s Pertemps being the only two I’ve put up in advance on X recently – price of 25/1 now well gone on the latter)

I’m really pleased to see that Bryan Gault is still doing his excellent www.gaultstats.com site again this year. Once again I can thoroughly recommend for anyone looking to explore the statistical angles on Festival races. I’ve done pretty well following pointers from these in the past. There is little point for me going into them too deeply myself when they have been done so well by Bryan. Please don’t forget to donate though if you find this site useful.

Whilst stats are always in my thoughts, I don’t rely on them solely though. I do mix them in with what I’ve seen with my own eyes on previous form and from nearly 50 years of watching the Festival.

Note that there has been some tinkering with race schedules again this year. Some races have moved to different time slots and indeed different days from past meetings.

Centrepiece races remain at their new 4pm slot each day – an initiative that was brought in last year

Ground is looking fairly certain to start as Good to Soft at this stage. The lead up has been relatively dry and any Soft patches are likely to disappear. If the course continues to dry out we can expect some watering to try and maintain it at this kind of level. A course walk by Nicky Henderson on Sunday seemed to reveal it was more Good than Soft in many areas.

Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

A note on Each Way Betting:

I will always be on the lookout for enhanced place terms throughout the 4 days which can add notable value to any bets. If there are regularly 3 places offered but firms offer 4 this can be a productive edge. It was disappointing to see so many big handicaps were missing 6 places offered last year though – something that had been common pre 2025. The standard terms for handicaps of 16 runners would be ¼ odds 1234. Getting 1/5^th odds for 6 places can be quite an improvement on that for the right type of selection and I hope to see it again. However, the more standard variation of 1/5^th odds for 5 places became more common last year and I’m not holding my breath. Whilst that might look good the difference between one quarter and one fifth of win odds doesn’t often make that much change in terms of value.

In the past couple of years I’ve tried to keep a track on how certain big trainers profit/loss records have looked over the handicaps. Each way is calculated on assumption that 6 places are paid in handicaps – which was very common until last year. There may be the odd 6^th place here where they may not be paid out though

Over the past 6 years some prominent results are here. Main things to note would be the P/L sucess of Dan Skelton in handicaps (books are aware of this though and its factored into prices regularly); the consistent profit made by backing Nicky Henderson horses in hurdles handicaps; the lack of sucess backing Willie Mullins horses blind in hcaps (particularly chases)

For last year 2025 I also added Gavin Cromwell who is becoming more and more of one to watch at this meeting. Henry De Bromhead’s handicap runners are notable here. He didnt have any winners from his 7 handicap runners but 6 of them were placed

Another things that is different this year – and which the course kept quiet until the Sunday before – appeared recently.

This could be quite significant to some hurdle results. A longer run in with an uphill finish may make stamina more of an asset for one. The hurdle seems to have been moved to avoid a patch of false ground

I’m covering the first two days here where all declarations are now out

Let’s start with the opening day on Tuesday

DAY 1

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2026-03-10. *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses

One thing to note immediately here is that the meeting start a little bit earlier in the year than usual on March 10^th. This may be significant as it is the birthday of leading owner JP McManus and I wonder if some running plans have been altered to fit in with that. If you are reading JP – Happy 75^th Birthday …..and please don’t forget to message to let me know who you are backing 😉

1.20 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle.

12 runners have been declared to face the Cheltenham roar in the traditional opener. It’s a strong looking field that has a more competitive look than a few recent renewals.

My thoughts on the main contenders in current market order.

OLD PARK STAR. Has been ante post favourite for a while. He wasn’t an obvious type for the race at the beginning of the season but marked himself down as a serious contender with an authoritative here (course form box ticked) before Christmas. He then impressed again when leading all the way and with some pinpoint jumping at Haydock. He deserves to be favourite but it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank when being taken on for the lead here

MIGHTY PARK. The hype contender this year from the Willie Mullins camp. His race target wasn’t clear until a few days ago when his price fell dramatically. His price is based on rumours that he is the next big star to come from the Mullins arsenal. You would have to be a firm follower of that hype to be backing him though at around 7/2. He has only won one weak hurdle race where he wasn’t challenged at all. He could be ‘the second coming’ but he has to prove his jumping here with top flight company around him in a pressure cooker atmosphere. I’d want much bigger odds to be at all interested

TALK THE TALK. Again he wasn’t a definite contender for this until confirmed at the final declarations despite his trainer being adamant this was the race he was aiming for. Could well have won both of the strongest trial races for this at Leopardstown but for an awkward fall over Christmas. Was given a bit of a careful ride to help his jumping issues last time out and did really well to make up ground and win from a slow pace. His jumping would remain a potential Achilles heel but that last run should have helped

EL CAIROS. An eyecatcher when 5^th in last years Festival Bumper when he looked like he should have gone close to winning but for his amateur rider looking like he was doing his best to stay on board at the speed he was going. Subsequently sold for a big sum and he looked sure to win impressively first time out this year but for another final hurdle blip. Won a minor race easily since but again nearly messed it up at the final hurdle. His hurdling generally has looked slick but it’s just when quickening up and jumping that a weakness has been seen. Has recorded 38mph when in full charge this season – something beyond the others so far.

MYDADDYPADDY. Was all the rage for this before his bubble was blown by Idaho Sun at Aintree. That was the first time he had come off the bridle and he found a battle hardened rival too much (Idaho Sun sadly injured and not able to renew rivalry). It was still a good run and he isn’t out of this but his official mark is 12 lb less than Old Park Star’s

LEADER D’ALLIER. Mullins has another contender here with stable jockey Paul Townend on board (Townend can’t ride Mighty Park who has a retained jockey). His defeat by Ballyfad earlier this season gives him something to find with Talk the Talk though

SOBER GLORY. Has looked a really good horse in winning 7 of his 8 races. A disappointing defeat – with no real explanation behind it – at Sandown being his only blot. He likes to run from the front and doesn’t stop. I do worry a little however when I see all his form is at Newbury and Chepstow and hasn’t raced here. Some will point to the fact his last winning time at Newbury was 4 seconds quicker than Tutti Quanti’s win in the prestigious Tote Gold Trophy that day. We must bear in mind though that the weather was filthy that day and by the time the other race was run there had been a lot of rain at the track – conditions were probably not like-for-like. Soft ground does seem to be his preference and he’s not likley to get it here

BARON NOIR. Maybe a bit of an outsider at around 33/1 but he deserves mentioning. The novice hurdle he was 2^nd in at Warwick was a very strong race in my opinion. He raced freely there and has done in other races but his talent has got him through. The stronger pace here should get him settled and we can see what he is made of. He was good enough to beat El Cairos in the big Punchestown bumper last season so we know the engine is there. I don’t think his mark of 130 really reflects his talent and there could well be a 140+ horse in there.

The other four runners – EACHTOTHEIROWN, KOKTAIL BRUT, SAGEBOROUGH and TOO BOSSY FOR US are all useful in their own right – but it would be a surprise for me to see any of them winning

CONCLUSION.

The likely pace of this race is the overriding factor for me. I think we can expect Old Park Star, Mighty Park and Sober Glory all wanting to go a good clip. They have all had uninterrupted leads before and may be in new territory here. If there are any flaws in Mighty Park’s hurdling the other two will soon exploit it. This pace should really suit something that can sit off it and challenge them late. I do favour Talk The Talk and El Cairos to do that ( though I am a little nervous about their hurdling once speed is increasing downhill). I have marginal preference for Talk the Talk as suspect he has more stamina than El Cairos when we are now faced with a longer uphill drag from the last (would favour the latter on a flatter track)

I also think Baron Noir won’t be far off them with a couple to jump and could be a potential surprise packet. A couple of firms who offer 4 places each way would be useful in that regard.

My selection therefore is Talk the Talk but for betting I’d suggest backing him in a different way

The two horses who are tied in with his form most both run for Gordon Elliott in Wednesdays Turners Hurdle. Skylight Hustle and Ballyfad will both surely shorten if Talk the Talk wins or goes close. This is therefore taking advantage of related options (you can’t back the same horse to win two races without getting a special reduced price – but you can back two related horse and get some value)

I also think that Baron Noir’s run gives a related option with Bossman Jack in the same race on Wednesday as they both come from the same Warwick race

The recommendations are

1pt ew double Talk The Talk + Skylight Hustle (1.20 Wednesday)

1pt ew double Talk the Talk + Ballyfad (1.20 Wednesday)

0.25 pt ew double Baron Noir + Bossman Jack (1.20 Wednesday)

(the last bet ideally with firms who offer 4 places each on this race)

*****

2.00 Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy

This race has been billed as a face-off between Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba for a long while and they have both made it here.

It didn’t always look likely for the former who won the Supreme last year. He’s had an interrupted preparation but connections sound bullish again now and he has moved into favouristism.

Lulamba was 2^nd in last season’s Triumph Hurdle and has flourished as a chaser this season.

Kopek Des Bordes did look a serious horse over hurdles last year but missing his intended prep race puts me off having any strong view here.

His stablemate Kargese won at the Festival last year and did have her prep race at Leopardstown. That was a really strongly run event in deep ground though which she’ll be doing well to have not been left with a mark from.

I’m not sure Mambonumberfive will be suited by this course as he is such a big horse and has been kept to flat tracks so far. Steel Ally is a likely pace angle for this race but I’m also mindful that he is now 8 years old and has been kept away from this track so far in his career

I would have put up Jax Junior as the each way pick at a big price if there were 3 places available but not it’s down to 7 runners that option has gone. He has impressed me a lot in his last two wins but he will need to step up again to reach the level of the two favourites. He was running well in the Albert Bartlett here last year until stamina became a factor (no concern here over a much shorter trip).He’d be the one I’d be looking for in any markets offered without the two favourites

Selection; If pushed I’d veer towards the proven form of Lulamba this season. For betting I’d just be looking to find Jax Junior in a market without the two favs though

*****

2.40 McCoy Contractors Juvenile Hcap Hurdle

This did used to be the last race on the opening day but now moved forward.

There are lots of potential plots here and it’s unlikely I’ll be betting at current prices.

My old system of finding the best flat horse used to work well until French breds started to muddy the waters. There is no definitive stand out flat performer here but top weight Barbizon had the highest rating of 94 on the level (and at least gets 5lb claimed off his back here). Saratoga, Dignam, Winston Junior, Glen to Glen, Ammes and Munsif (current reserve…he may be out of race by Monday afternoon if nothing drops out) were all close behind him on flat ratings.

Of these Saratoga and Munsif were 2^nd and 3^rd in a recent Naas race that has always been a good pointer for this. (Munsif I suspect may well show improvement on the better ground here and with the ‘notoriety’ of his stable’s plots….I won’t say any more on that!)

Joseph O’Brien trained the winner last year and his Glen to Glen won the same prep race so must be a factor. I’d also then have to bring in Ole Ole who isn’t far behind him on form and comes from the stable that produced a 50/1 second last year.

Ammes, from the James Owen stable, has a very similar look to last season’s 3^rd from the same stable. The booking of Sean Bowen is notable there

If you fancy him or Winston Junior (another I couldn’t put anyone off), note it also ties in with Minella Study’s chances in Fridays Triumph Hurdle. It’s worth considering some related doubles there as I mentioned for the first race with that in mind

It’s a difficult race. If pushed for a selection I might be veering towards Winston Junior or Ammes as I think the Irish runners haven’t been given the best of it by the UK handicapper

******

3.20 Trustmarque Ultima Hcap Chase

This race is an old favourite of mine as the stats tended to point me in the way of horses carrying less than 11 stones. That would take out the top 13 in the field for me right away but it has to be said that the skew towards lower weights it quite as dramatic as it once was.

At the top of the weights we do have some classy performers. I think Handstands could be the best but his only run at the course was a disappointing one and I have yet to be convinced this track will suit him

Top weight Iroko is the current favourite for the Grand National so I wonder if this is just a prep race and they will be leaving something to work on with Aintree in mind.

The Green and Gold colours of JP will also be worn by current favourite Jagwar. He is a big horse who will have no issues carrying 11st 9lbs and has winning course form. The downsides would be his low price of around 7/2 and the fact that his regular jockey is on Iroko (can understand why with Grand National in mind)

Myretown won this race impressively last year when he would have comfortable suited the low weight stats carrying just 10st 3lbs. His mark is 15 pounds higher now but he still gets in under 11 stones (showing that this is a better quality race). His old stablemate Corach rambler won back-to-back renewals which will make him popular. His failure to complte in two of his three races thios season is the undoubted negative,

I put up The Short Go each way in this race last year as he looked to be well suited to the course and he paid out place money. He would have been the main pick for me again until the UK handicapper dealt him a fair blow by putting him 6 lbs higher than last year. He has also had a wind op since his last run – we just don’t know if that will be a positive or negative though until he runs.

My main selection sits near the bottom of the handicap as I often like in this race.

Knight of Allen is actually having to carry 4lb more than he should be but for me he arguably achieved more than the mark of 131 he carries here when 4^th against much higher rated rivals on his last venture at this course. He was running on well at the finish then and giving 5 pounds to 137 rated Califet En Vol who finished 5 lengths in front of him (and that one has since won a competitive Kempton handicap). The extra distance here ought to suit him and it’s noteworthy that the Williams family have won this race in the past with another 6 year old (Coo Star Sivola)

I’ve found Jane Williams quite a frustrating trainer to follow in the past but the addition of Ciaran Gethings as stable jockey this season has been a huge factor in seeing much better results. Ciaran should be riding at this lowest weight here. He ran well enough at Newbury over 3 mils last time but I doubt that heavy ground there was ideal (his brother Galahad Quest performed best on decent ground)

CONCLUSION

I wouldn’t put anyone off The Short Go each way with firms who offer 6 or 7 places but it would be more with the place side in mind (note from stats earlier that his trainer Henry De Bromhead had nearly every one of his horses placed here in handicaps last year)

Recommendation

The main bet though for me is 1pt ew KNIGHT OF ALLEN (25/1 available with Skybet whoi pay 7 places – would still happily take 22/1 with 6 places elsewhere)

*****

4.00 Unibet Champion Hurdle

The centrepiece event was a very successful one for me last year with Golden Ace backed ante post at 100/1.

She had luck on her side when State Man fell at the last but she also did well to avoid his fall and that of Constitution Hill earlier which slightly took her out of position.

She again got lauded as ‘lucky’ when she won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle earlier this season when The New Lion fell. To my eyes she may well have won that encounter anyway as The New Lion was going no better.

She beat Brighterdayshead in the Champion Hurdle last year and in the Mares Novice Hurdle the season. Supposedly the slow pace was against Elliott’s mare that time but it won’t have suited the Ace that much either. My inclination is more that this course isn’t ideal for Brighterdaysahead

In short I think Golden Ace remains a mare who has been underestimated throughout her career – even by the official handicapper who gives her a mark of 152….I would have her more like 156 or 157.

I think she will go close again but admit to be being very worried about the presence of Lossiemouth in this year’s race. The Mullins star mare has avoided this race for 2 years to plunder the Mares Hurdle instead and she has a 4/4 record at Cheltenham. Connections have always seemed more enthused about getting an obvious win than a probable win so that fact she runs here suggest they are happy. A longer trip may be her optimum but with the errant stablemate Anzadam in the field there is always the chance of pace being injected into this race. Cheekpieces have been applied this time to help her with this bigger test of speed. A slight concern may be if the ground continues to dry. She was badly tapped for toe at Kempton last season and good ground may not be ideal for her.

Patrick Mullins couldn’t control that one earlier this season at Leopardstown and we could see similar here. The addition of Tutti Quanti into the race would also seem to aid this race not being run at a crawl.

Both Tutti Quanti and Alexei are interesting outsiders who have elevated themselves to this level after impressive handicap wins earlier this season. I would have a small concern about their last runs being in bad ground in February though (particularly in the case of the latter who may have had an unnecessarily hard race at Wincanton)

CONCLUSION

I can’t not support Golden Ace each way at 9/1 or 10/1 as think she will be in the frame at least. She has done me proud here for the last two season and owes me nothing. I do fear Lossiemouth though so if a market ‘without Lossiemouth’ appears I’d become more interested. I do prefer Golden Ace to The New Lion and Brighterdayahead who are lower prices.

Recommendation

1pt ew Golden Ace (taking 9/1 or better if available)

******

4.40 Sun Racing Plate Hcap Chase

Not a handicap that excites me too much

Both Madara (looks a likely Dan Skelton targeted runner) and McLaurey (potential Emmet Mullins plot) are just priced too much in expectation of their runs at around 4/1 to interest me.

At a better price, Downmexicoway is unexposed at this trip and the De Bromhead stable did very well with placings in handicaps at this meeting last year (see my earlier table). I’m not sure he is hiding too much from a mark of 145 but he was given an easy time last time out when not getting involved in the pace war of the Irish Arkle principals

At bigger odds I’d just thrown in O’Moore Park at around 16/1 as better value. His last run wasn’t anything to write home about but he’s only a pound higher than when placed at 66/1 in the novices handicap last year. Decent ground and this course seem to bring out the best in him. Unlikely I’ll be betting though in this event.

Selections if pushed – Downmexicoway and O’Moore Park

******

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap

This is the second year of this race being run as a handicap. Eveything went to plan when Haiti Coleurs dominated the race last year. This year there is no standout contender for me though. I had one fancy who declined to take join the field at the final stage

Winning connections from last year field Newton Tornado this time. But whilst Haiti won well on the course during his preps, Newton Tornado fell. He doesn’t give me the same feeling as an out and out galloper whose jumping will put the rest to the sword. In his defence, we must note that trainer Rebecca Curtis has a good record in handicaps from quite a small sample over the year

Backersackme is another likely plot horse. The combination of Emmet Mullins training and Paul Byrne owning will often have bookies running for cover and his price reflects that.

Wade Out is also well found in the market but he is a horse who really makes life hard for his jockey. Don’t be surprised to see him under hard driving from a long way out and then just plugging on through beaten horses. If you fancy his chances betting on the Exchange in running may give you a much bigger price.

Iceberg Theory (trainer knows how to lay one out for handicap here) and One Big Bang (3^rd over a trip that was far too inadequate for him last time but may want softer ground) would be of more interest to me but I don’t feel strongly enough about either to get involved.

There are a lot of stamina questions to be answered in this race – and quite a few who like to front run. It should come down to who has the best stamina reserves in the final half mile

Selection if pushed would be Iceberg Theory

******************************

******

That’s Day 1 thoughts completed now onto Wednesday’s musings for Day 2…………

Hopefully there is some profit in the bank by now.

Note that as I write these declarations have only just come out. Markets may take some time to be updated and so revised odds may not be widespread until later on Monday afternoon

1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle

It’s 2017 since anything with a double figure price won this (Willoughby Court) and we have to go back to First Lieutenant in 2011 to find a winner who had a handicap mark of less than 146 winning.

That stat alone quickly whittles this down to three runners; Ballyfad (149), Skylight Hustle (148) and King Rasko Grey (148).

The main UK hope, No Drama This End comes in with a mark of 144. He might well be better than that but his most impressive performances have come of softer ground that what he may face here.

As mentioned already for the opening race on day 1, I’ve already given away my thoughts a little here in the expectation that Talk The Talk runs well there.

Ballyfad was just touched off by that horse last time and had King Rasko Grey just behind him.

Skylight Hustle was vying for the lead with Talk The Talk when that one fell in his previous race. There may not have been much between them.

It was always likely to be a tough choice to make for stable jockey Jack Kennedy here. Both Elliott horses have yet to perform at this trip over hurdles but both were ready winners of Point to Points over 3 miles to give encouragement that the extra distance will be in their favour. (Sir Gerhard a recent winner of this race came in with the same profile). He picked Ballyfad – but as that is owned by the stable’s main patron it could have some bearing. There may not be that much between them

As also noted from day one musings, if Baron Noir runs well it’s a pointer for Bossman Jack. He looked a work in progress on his hurdles debut at Warwick and has impressed in 2 wins since. Those wins aren’t at the level of this race and his handicap rating of 134 is somewhat shy of what would be required to win this. I am surprised that Dan Skelton hasn’t gone down the handicap route with that mark so his entry here is evident of the regard he is held in and the step up in trip should see more improvement.

Selections

Already covered in Race 1 synopsis from Day 1 – and hopefully there is money running onto Ballyfad, Skylight Hustle and/or Bossman Jack after that

******

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase

Possibly my biggest ante post interest here comes in the form of Wendigo who really caught my eye with his 3^rd place at Kempton over Christmas. I have been backing this one at far bigger prices than what is available now but still think he is the most solid option.

It was fairly clear in that race that the track was too quick for him and he was on the backfoot from some way out but he stuck to it in such a way that I felt sure he would turn the form around with the winner (Kitzbuhel) back at this meeting. His run was very reminiscent of subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River’s effort back in 2015. There have been several beaten horses in that Feltham Chase that have come on to win this race (Bobs Worth immediately springing to mind)

Wendigo’s run in last season Albert Bartlett Hurdle also gives confidence that this track suits him. He was going very well there and looking likely to be a big contender until nearly taken out of the race by The Big Westerner before the home turn. He wouldn’t have won but I feel sure he would have been up with her for second if not for that incident. The Big Westerner would be a threat again but with her need for soft ground unlikely to be fulfilled her chance may diminish

At the time I was backing, Final Demand was a short priced favourite for this race. He has since disappointed in his prep race when beaten by Kaid d’Authie and Western Fold and the race does have more of an open look now. Final Demand may well bounce back from that but he does have something to prove at this course. His 3^rd place in the Turners Hurdle last year was arguably his weakest hurdles performance and might indicate the track doesn’t suit him. Kaid d’Authie was also pulled up on his only start here so also has a course question to answer.

Western Fold was second in this race. He doesn’t have any experience on this course so that negative factor can’t be applied. He may improve for the better ground so rates a threat though whether he is as strong a stayer as my selection is debatable. He does hold another Irish challenger Oscars Brother on earlier form (that one may prefer softer ground)

Romeo Coolio was considered an unlikely contender for this race until very recently but once confirmed he became favourite. He has yet to race over this trip and he may well be suited by it in time but I can’t be enthused about his chances this time. He had a very hard race last time out in deep ground. That was his 4^th race this season and the chances of it leaving a mark must be high. There is a strong sense that his presence here is more about the owner wanting a runner than the trainer wanting to run.

Recommendation

1.5 pts ew WENDIGO (hopefully there will be some firms offering 4 places on this – there should be with the number of runners left in the race)

*****

2.40 BetMGM Cup Hcap Hurdle

Firstly there is a bit of schadenfrude here that the arch plotter Charles Byrnes’s had had his second fancied handicap runner appear as a reserve. I Started A Joke – like Munsif – on Tuesday needs something to drop out to get a run. I could feel sorry for other connections but less so for this one!

It’s not a race that appeals to me much for betting at the moment and I’d want the 6 places to be offered at least for any each ways bets.

I’m naturally drawn to two stables from P/L stats

Nicky Henderson has done very well here in tha past and fields Lucky Place, Jingko Blue and Iberico Lord. Lucky Place has done well in this race before but he hasn’t looked the same horse since an unsuccessful chasing spell. Jingko Blue seems to be fancied by the stable if preview night chat can be believed but I’m struggling to warm to his chances based on his previous Festival effort. Iberico Lord may be the strongest of his runners having come back to form last time out and having winning form in the past on this course (albeit over a shorter trip)

Henry De Bromhead’s handicap record from last year has already been mentioned and he also fields three. Ballyadam was 3rd last year but he is now 11 years old and must be vulnerable off a high weight to younger improvers. Beckett Rock was also engaged in handicap chases at this meeting off a lower mark but it’s significant he turns up here where he was 6th last year. Stable jockey, Darragh O’Keeffe has picked Forty Coats however. His form this season isn’t enticing but it is notable that cheekpieces are added for the first time here. His stand out piece of form was his 4th in the Turners Novice Hurdle here last year so the course form box is ticked. Last year’s winner Jimmy Du Seuil also had his previous best performance in that race

Recommendations

0.5 pts ew each FORTY COATS and BECKETT ROCK (hopefully at around 33/1 with a minimum of 6 places being taken)

****

3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Not a race I normally have a view on but I did post this a couple of weeks back on X

Last year Vanillier got in a lovely position early one and then Sean Flanagan took his hands off the wheel to look around behind him. He nearly rain off the track by doing that and totally lost his position. I hope and expect there will be full control at the wheel this year. He is 11 now but has shown the ability is still there at Punchestown this season and is a previous Festival winner. There is a caveat that if the ground dries out a lot it may not be ideal. At the time of putting this out 1/4 odds 1234 were still available. With only 14 declared it’s more likely to see 1/5th odds for 4 places now when prices are revised

Recommendation

1pt ew VANILLIER (look for a minimum of 8/1 with 4 places offered)

*****

4.00 Bet MGM Queen Mother Champions Chase

This race lost some competitivity when last year’s winner Marine Nationale was ruled out last week. It should leave the race at the mercy of Majborough who would surely have won last year’s Arkle Trophy but for a massive blunder 2 fences out. He still recovered enough to be involved in the finish.

He looked really good last time out and I feel his biggest danger again would be the fences. I think he’ll win with a clear round.

I couldn’t imagine L’Eau Du Sud not being placed in that Arkle but he ended up 4^th after taking the race to Majborough. He would appear the main danger but I’d be worried again he might make himself vulnerable if being ridden to beat the favourite

Il Etait Temps has always shown his best form away from this track. On ratings he would be the main threat but he is coming here off a very bad fall on his last run which may have some effect

Quilixios may have been second last year but for falling but he hasn’t run since then. Captain Guinness is a past winner but is now 11 years old and his best days appear to be behind him

There are two at big prices I like to run well. Saint Segal has thrived this year under Ciaran Gethings and has a high cruising speed that could be suited by following Majborough’s pace. Brookie may be total outsider of the field but he badly needs good ground (it was far worse than good to soft last time he ran). I can see him being ridden to pick up some pieces and claim some place prize money here if ground continues to dry out

SUGGESTIONS: As I expect Majborough to win but see his price being too unattractive I suggest looking for markets appearing for ‘betting without Majborough’ here and where 1/5^th odds 123 are offered

No odds will be out on those yet but I’ll be looking for both Saint Segal and Brookie each way in those markets

******

4.40 Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Hcap Chase

Nicky Henderson hasn’t aimed one for the race named after his father this year so that angle can’t be used.

Jazzy Matty won the race last year (his second Festival win) and comes back to defend his title off an 8lb higher mark. It’s his first run after a wind operation though so I’m not sure if everything has gone to plan with his preparations.

Ben Pauling has been very bullish about the talents of Vanderpoel in the run up to this but I would have liked to see some course form.

This isn’t a race I have a big view in but I’ve followed Release the Beast for a while as he has looked a work in progress for Paul Nolan – a trainer who knows how to win handicaps here. He hasn’t set foot beyond the Irish Sea in his career yet but I notice both a hood and a tongue tie are now added. I would have preferred the UK handicapper to have been a bit more lenient – but if he had he probbaly wouldnt have got in at the foor of the handicap here.

I would not be at all surprised to see him finally realise the potential he has shown a few times in his career to date

Selection; Release the Beast

*****

5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper

An immediate pass for me for betting. Very little collateral form and all of these will be facing a new test in a 22 runner field run at a solid pace.

A few notes.

Bass Hunter has looked very talented in two wins but if he runs from the front as he did at Ascot he will do well to get home unless he is absolutely top drawer.

Quiryn (one of 4 from the Mullins stable) was bred to run on the flat but an aversion to starting stalls curtailed that plan. He certainly looked talented but quirky with it on his only run to date. The engine may be there but the temperament to deal with this occasion is a question mark

Mets Ta Ceinture was a big money buy for Dan Skelton and makes her UK debut here. She has strong French bumper form and as a 4 yo filly gets lots of weight from the others. It’s notable that dan has pitched her in so deep so quickly.

Selection if pushed – Mets Ta Ceinture

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,

Paul

(You’ll find me on X as @Senor_Moodoir, on Blue Sky @senormoodoir.bsky.social)

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 9, 2026 in Uncategorized

Tags: betting, Cheltenham, Horse Racing, horses, Majborough, Wendigo

Aintree Grand National meeting 2025

30 Mar

An extra post on the blog here to cover the three races run over the National fences at Aintree next week.

I’ve done a detailed post on the Grand National itself in the past where it was often a race where the winner could be found by analysing previous stats.

The changes in the race made over the big fences last year, however, have created a much easier test in my opinion. Factors like weight and age and even jumping ability are now less important. I’m largely considering historical statistics to be a bit meaningless now with this in mind.

The most recent runnings of the race have seen far more runners on contention in the later stages than there used to be. This was ramped up even more last year. Any number of runners were in contention in the Grand National and the Topham Trophy at the home turn last year. I’m expecting to see the same again now with ground conditions likely to be even better than they were last year.

It’s also worth noting that the easing of the fences – and in particularly the stretch of the course leading up to and including Bechers Brook – has now meant there is far more advantage than there used to be in keeping to the inside of the track. This was once the ‘brave man’s route’. Now it should be everyone’s favoured route as they try to save ground in order to get a good line coming into the Canal Turn. At this fence, going too wide could then lose you the race in one fell swoop.

This ‘golden highway’ does potentially create another issue if a prominent racer falls as it could cause lots of traffic issues behind. I’d be quite keen with this in mind to support prominent racers who can stay out of trouble slightly more.

The going on the track is currently swaying between good to soft and good. Updates can be found throughout the week here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-grand-national/racing/grand-national-the-going/. The weather forecast doesn’t show any rain coming and suggests the course will dry out. We’ve had Grand Nationals on firm ground in the past – but those days are long gone now as stewards will be keen to keep the ground no faster than Good. Expect watering to take place throughout the week – hopefully not too much to make the ground tacky or dead though!. As long as we get no unexpected downpours then a Good ground meeting looks likely at this stage

With these points in mind onto some thoughts for next week’s three races over the ‘not so big now’ fences.

*****

Thursday – 4.05 Foxhunters Chase

Final declarations for this will appear on Tuesday morning at around 1030

There is one obvious contender here for me. Lifetime Ambition has already run twice around this course when he was a high class handicapper. The fences gave him no terrors then – an ‘unseated rider’ in the 2023 Grand National was because a loose horse ran in front of him. Prior to that he had been jumping well in 2^nd place. Previously he had been 4^th over this trip when the weight he was giving away to his rivals told in later stages (Percussion ½ length ahead will be 18 pounds worse off here).

Lifetime Ambition entered the hunter chase ranks last season but wasn’t qualified to run in this race then. Even back then, connections were mooting this 2025 version as his aim, and he’s finally made it here.

The presence of Rob James on board is a bonus in race that has amateur riders of various abilities. Rob is very capable and won the Cheltenham Festival version of this race recently.

Whilst the selection was beaten by Willitgoahead earlier this season over a longer trip, I have no doubt that his season will have been geared to this race and he’ll be a much improved model now.

The ground conditions look likely to suit and he ticks all the boxes here for me as he should be racing prominently from the off

My Drogo is the one horse in the field who may have displayed higher class form in the past. This comes with fragility though that curtailed his chasing career after looking such a good early prospect.

He has yet to tackle these fences but if he does, I’d be most concerned about him as a danger

Selection: Lifetime Ambition – best price 6/1 at time of writing with 365, Ladbrokes and Corals

Friday – 4.05 Topham Handicap Chase

The ‘mini’ Grand National over a shorter trip is always a good appetiser for what is coming the day after.

I would have looked at statistics to help again here in past but after last year’s race I’m inclined to ignore them.

Lounge Lizard was my fancy for that race then but a late injury took him out of the race the day before. My blog last year details why I liked him so much after a previous performance where he seemed to really light up at the course.

I have to support him again after his warm up race saw him returning to the form I was hoping to see. Connections had blamed the ground being too soft before then so I’m not expecting that issue here. He races prominently and stays further than this trip so am hoping he’ll be bang in contention in the final stages. I’m hoping to see Jonathan Burke or Sam Twiston-Davies get the leg-up when final declarations are released on Wednesday morning. They both know him well

At Cheltenham over the New Year I was also taken by Marble Sands’s performance in front of him. He was second then but on much softer ground than he would like. He went into the notebook as one to watch in a decent handicap when the ground was better.

That day has come here as the ground and trip look ideal. I’m hoping that Kielan Woods is on board for this test. He hasn’t raced over these fences before and would race less prominently so I would be hoping for a trouble free passage.

It’s a competitive race and danger are aplenty but these two will do for me at the prices available

Selections; Lounge Lizard (25/1 best current price available with 365 and Skybet) and Marble Sands (20/1 Skybet only)

Saturday 4.00 Grand National

The ‘big one’. It looked such a different race last year but my takeout was that the 1^st 4 home were all previous Grade 1 chase winners. That suggested that class came to the fore. Weight could be carried more effectively over these new style fences. In the past I would have favoured anything carrying 11 stone or less but this has become ever more inconsequential in recent years. Being aged 9 or 10 and having plenty of experience were also factors that used to matter – much less so now since 7yo Noble Yeats won.

I’m therefore inclined to look for the Grade 1 chase winners again and there are 9 currently declared.

They are:

I Am Maximus – last year’s winner but has a big weight this year after that and has been out of form so far this year.

Royale Pagaille – needs it very soft and won’t get that.

Grangeclare West – high enough weighted here for me on what he has achieved so far

Hewick. Was due to be top weight last year but taken out. The ground is looking likely to be right up his street. This former King George winner avoided Cheltenham and had a lovely preparation win. I wouldn’t have fancied him carrying 11st 7lb in the old style race and the fences would have been a test for this small horse then – he can get away with these things now though in this new style race

Minella Indo – Former Gold Cup winner and placed last year. He is 12 now though and age is going in the wrong direction

Capodanno – Has done this race twice and didn’t get home both times. May yet race in the Topham on Friday instead (MONDAY MORNING UPDATE – CAPODANNO NOT IN THE 5 DAY DECLARATIONS AND WON’T NOW RUN HERE)

Conflated. Very much on the downgrade with his form this year and may struggle to stay even without that

Bravemansgame. Previous King George winner and Gold Cup second. Not the force he was this season but his mark has dropped to allow for that. Similar profile in that regard to last year’s placed horses

Chantry House. ‘Enigmatic’ comes to mind here and can see him not liking this test. His form is very in and out now – and mostly ‘out’

There are 3 other Grade 1 winner in the field but those wins came over hurdles. Appreciate It and Stay Away Fay wouldn’t be ones I’d be looking at but a case can be made for Vanillier who was second in this race two years ago. He didn’t look so happy in the race last year but he has looked a bit reformed recently. He may well have beaten Stumptown in Cheltenham’s Cross Country Chase but for his rider taking the wrong course. He still managed to be 3^rd despite that huge blip. The decent ground should be to his liking.

Iroko and Intense Raffles would be too young at 7 years old on old statistics but we can forget that here now. They have to be considered strong contenders and look to have had their preparations this season fine-tuned for this race. However both would seem to prefer soft ground and that is looking unlikely now. If the rains did somehow comes they would be more dangerous for me.

The other I have to consider at a big price is Threeunderthrufive. He doesn’t have the Grade 1 form I was looking for but his form this season is the best of his career. He is officially 5 pounds well in here after his last run – he should be racing of 158 but has 153. That alone has to give him some chance and being previously placed in the Scottish Grand National should mean he will have no problem staying this trip.

Final declarations will be released on Thursday morning but my shortlist at this stage in order of preference is

Hewick (best price 10/1 currently)

Vanillier (14/1 best in a coupld of places)

Threunderthrufive (66/1 ew with 5 places in several places)

Bravemansgame (50/1 ew with 5 places available)

I’d normally be expecting some firms to go to 6 places on the day (only Skybet currently). However many firm that I expected to do that at Cheltenham didn’t – so it’s not a given. Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Hills, Unibet and Betfred all amongst the firms who are already Non Runner No Bet though. If you back now and it doesn’t run then stakes will be returned – take car if using others that they have the same rule.

I’ll no doubt be active on Blue Sky app with any extra bits of interest I spot during the meeting next week for other races on the traditional Mildmay course (@senormoodoir.bsky.social)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back next week

Paul

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 30, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: Aintree, grandnational, Horse Racing, horses, sports

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 4

13 Mar

Ground appears to be proper Good to Soft so far on Day 3 – there should be no excuses from anyone. I’m assuming we’ll have similar tomorrow in this analysis below

Onto the final day’s action:

Friday’s card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-14

Odds comparisons here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-14-cheltenham

1.20 JCB Triumph Hurdle

This feels like a Triumph Hurdle of yesteryear with 18 runners and some firms offering 4 places!

Before Tuesday’s 4yo handicap hurdle was added to this meeting in it often had big fields – and produced shock results. Class has generally come to the fore since.

Willie Mullins fields a staggering 11 runners – 3 of which have yet to face a hurdle in public.

I would hope having so many big outsiders doesn’t cause traffic problems but I think there will be a strong pace here which should soon sort out the wheat from the chaff.

I don’t think the form of the Irish runners here is quite as strong as the home side and this largely revolves around the two at the front of the market.

East India Dock (the younger brother of Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle second Burdett Road) was a decent staying type on the flat but has blossomed since going hurdling. I don’t think you will see a quicker and more efficient jumper in this field and he can gain lengths on his rivals in a quickly run race. He’s made the running himself thus far but the addition of stablemate Opec, who looks sure to take them along at a good clip, looks a very good move.

This will test the jumping of main rival Lulamba, who looks more of a chasing type going forward – albeit a very useful one.

East India Dock’s course form and his quick hurdling sways it for me and I think Lulamba will need to be out of the very top drawer to beat him whilst the ground is on the better side here.

It would be great to see the Gredley family finally rewarded with a Cheltenham winner here after all the effort they have been putting into National Hunt racing in the past couple of years. Previously, the family were very flat racing orientated (more seasoned followers will remember User Friendly winning the Oaks and the Arc de Triomphe)

I have had a little ante post interest on Mondo Man earlier this year before he ran his first hurdling race. He was a top class horse on the flat but is held by Lulamba on Ascot running.

He has spoilt his chances in both races by pulling too hard – he was quirky on the flat as well.

His price of around 33/1 does reflect his chance on hurdling form so far. However, the likely strong pace here, and the addition of Brian Hughes in the saddle, gives him his best chance to actually settle in a race.

If he does behave himself and Brian can switch him off, he has the class to be a factor. We’ll know soon into the race whether he has a chance or not.

Selection; Heart may be ruling head slightly here but I’m on the side of East India Dock. A general price of around 2/1 is about right whilst not offering excessive value. A more speculative punt would be Mondo Man if he can finally settle in a race

Recommendation

I can’t see East India Dock out of the first 4 here. He isn’t an each way price at 2/1 but as there is another in the 4.40 who I also can’t see out of the first 4 then an Each way double is recommended – see the 440 write up.

Also 0.5 pt win Mondo Man 33/1 or better

(don’t see the value in each way here – if he doesn’t settle I can’t see him being placed but if he does he has the talent to go close)

*****

2.00 County Handicap Hurdle

A handicap with at least 4 contenders who look to have been laid out for it.

Absurde did the ‘absurd’ by winning comfortably this from last place from a relative slow pace last year. He has plenty of class from the flat and is thoroughly capable of winning again but interesting that Paul Townend opts for Kargese instead from Team Mullins.

Kargese was 2^nd in the Triumph Hurdle and is well handicapped off a mark of 141 on that form. She found disappointing little on her seasonal debut though and wouldn’t be winning this on that bare form. However, there may be a lot of improvement to come

I do think it’s a tough ask for 5 year olds like her to win this race and so that also applies to Lark In The Mornin. This one also looks to have been laid out for this race in the same way he was when easily winning on Tuesday’s card last year.

Then we have Valgrand, who represent the Dan Skelton team, who have been so good at providing the winners of this race with well-orchestrated plots in the past. He impressed with fast accurate jumping from the front earlier this season. Then he was held back in two later runs and that jumping prowess couldn’t be seen. The handicapper duly dropped him from 140 to 134 – something we have seen before in the Skelton plotting plan.

Hansard is also worth a mention off his mark of 142 given how well he ran against Champion Hurdle 1-2 Golden Ace and Burdett Road in his last run. Decent ground will suit him but I think a flatter track would be more of his metier

I can make a good case for too many in this race and no great value on any of them so it’s a No Bet race for me

*****

2.40 Mares Chase

Limerick Lace beat Dinoblue in this last year by getting first run and outstaying her on soft ground. The winner hasn’t been in the same form this year and I would expect Dinoblue to turn that form around on this occasion.

Allegorie de Vassy was behind them both last year and narrowly beaten by Dinoblue last time out. That would put her into the mix but she has run a bit below expectations now in 3 visits to this course and I don’t think it really suits here.

It’s also interesting that Keith Donoghue has chosen Brides Hill over Limerick Lace this year. Brides Hill had to be withdrawn from this race last year because of the soft ground. If she were to get her ideal Good ground she could be a proper threat to the favourite. You’d want to be checking the ground on race day here though…her chance lessens considerably if there is some soft in the ground.

*****

3.20 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (or ‘the Spud race’ as I affectionately call it)

This can be a really tough race for young novices over its longer trip. As such it is probably missing the highest grade novices who went for the shorter Turners Novices Hurdle on Wednesday. Take a look through the roll of honour in the past. You will see some later Gold Cup winners like Minella Indo and Bobs Worth. You’ll see just as many big priced winners who didn’t subsequently progress much further at all though.

If the pace is strong it can be a war of attrition that will favour the real sloggers in the race who haven’t been able to thrive in such conditions until now.

Team Mullins field six and stable jockey has plumped for Jasmin De Vaux, last years Festival Bumper winner. His hurdling career thus far has been highlighted by some quite dire jumping. He may well be the best of these on the gallops but he’ll need to really brush up his hurdling here or will be losing ground too regularly.

He’s also held by Wingmen on his last run. Gordon Elliott’s charge is unproven over this trip but most of them are to be fair here. I think his second at Leopardstown last time though is probably the best piece of form coming in.

Lucinda Russell has won this race before with the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze. She has compared Derryhassen Paddy quite favourably to that one and there was much to like about his recent Windsor win. The Russell team have already struck at this meeting with Myretown and are in good form. Their runner here is big long striding horse and I am a little worried that this course may not suit him – I thought Aintree might have been a better choice. Take note also that he was withdrawn from his prep race at Haydock as the ground was deemed not soft enough. He wouldn’t be a certain runner for me if there is no overnight easing in the ground.

Wendigo will be popular on the back of his second to The New Lion over Christmas – form that was well boosted on Wednesday. His second to Battle Born Lad earlier this season has also been well advertised since.

The Big Westerner is unbeaten and the likely favourite but is short enough for me considering her relative inexperience compared to others here

Team Mullins has won this race before with horses that weren’t the perceived first strings and I like two of his that I think will be ideally suited to the singular test of this race.

Sounds Victorius and Fishery Lane were 4^th and 5^th in last years Festival Bumper at big odds. Both came up the hill strongly and both look like they need a through test in my eyes. I don’t think either will have had their ideal conditions yet this season. Sounds Victorius was behind Wingman and Jasmin De Vaux at Leopardstown when he couldn’t match a change of pace from others near the home turn. He then stayed on into 5^th up the hill.

Both will appreciate a well-run race here which I hope we will get with proven front runner Jax Junior in the field

Recommendations

0.5 pts ew Sounds Victorius 20/1 or better

0.5 pts ew Fishery Lane 20/1 or better

Take the 5 places with Skybet or Paddy Power if you can – otherwise 4 places is widely available elsewhere

*****

4.00 Gold Cup

The centrepiece event of the meeting sees Galopin Des Champs going for his third win. On paper it looks his easiest task so far but the price of around 4/7 reflects that.
If the ground was properly good then Banbridge can be a threat but he is totally unproven over this far around this course…it’s a world away from Kempton’s 3 miles where he won the King George.

If there is more rain and emphasis is more on stamina then Inothewayurthinkin would be of each way interest. He won a handicap here last year easily despite bad jumping. His last run behind Galopin showed better jumping and nothing was staying on stronger at the finish.

If he doesn’t get outpaced it crucial stages. He will come up the hill very strongly and is the only one I can see threatening the favourite…but it does need a strongly run race with some ‘soft’ in the ground for me to see this scenario happening

Selection; Galopin Des Champs is hard to oppose but he is too short a price to recommend. If ground is good to soft or worse, Inothewayurthinkin would be a likely each way play

****

4.40 Hunters Chase

As in previous years, I just don’t follow the point to point scene enough to usuallyhave any great opinion on this race. It’s another amateur riders race where having one of the better jockeys on board would be great advantage.

However, Angels Dawn who is a previous Festival winner with the same rider on board and I would imagine has been laid out for this race. He ticks too many boxes for me to ignore

Four places are offered and as long as he gets round I can’t see him not being placed

Recommendation

Each way double time here with firms who offer 4 places on this race and the 120

2pt ew Double –

East India Dock 2/1 or better 1.20; Angels Dawn 7/2 or better here

****

5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle

Gordon Elliott learn his trace under the tutelage of Martin Pipe and always has something aimed at it. Wodhooh will be popular on the back of her being unbeaten over hurdles and a course win in December that’s worked out very well. She was rewarded with an 11 pound hike to her mark for that and she was best placed to strike from the front in quite a slow race

She would be favourite here if not for the presence of French import Kopeck De Mee who has been massively touted in the run up to the Festival. His mark of 136 is very much a shot in the dark from the handicapper as his form is so hard to gauge. He has been backed though as if he is much better than what he has been given.

We’ve seen this in handicaps from the Mullins team before. They sometimes hose in but other times it hasn’t come off. To take a price of no more than 5/2 in such a competitive race you’d really want to be knowing exactly what the stable know here

The short prices on these two runners mean we should have inflated prices on the rest and with 6 places on offer from several firms, I’ll look more for some each way value.

There are three that take my eye.

Park of Kings has been progressive this season and may well have won last time out at Leopardstown if not being given too much to do. He has been kept off the course since then – probably with this race in mind and avoiding winter deep ground – and should appreciate the strong pace and uphill finish.

No Questions Asked was a very useful bumper horse this season who has improved from race to race over hurdles this year. The form of his Huntingdon second to Califet En Vol was a big leap forward and I think he has the class of a horse with more to offer off his mark of 138

Punctuation has been around a long time and was originally owned by the Queen and once fancied for the Derby! He can be quirky but he does have an engine that can be seen to some effect when the cards fall for him. He has good course form and likes a strongly run race. The Henderson record in handicap hurdles is at the forefront oy mind here and I think there is decent value in him at big odds

Recommendations

0.5 pts each way on each of these with firms offering 6 places with 1/5^th odds

Park Of Kings 16/1 currently best price available

No Questions Asked 25/1 best available

Punctuation 50/1 quite widely available right now

That’s a wrap for this weeks action!

Thanks for reading once again. I hope my thoughts have been helpful to some during the week but whatever you have backed, I hope it’s been a profitable festival

Paul

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 13, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: Cheltenham, Horse Racing, horses, sports

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 3

12 Mar

We are reaching the halfway point of the Festival now

The wintry weather forecast came to fruition on Wednesday morning with some snow and sleet early on. This was mixed with sunshine to then help dry it out.

Forecast for remainder of week seems to be dry but with a chance of overnight frosts. It seems unlikely the ground will get softer this week and it may get closer to Good ground. It’s possible that some watering may be done if it does dry out too much

Onto Day 3 action:

Thursday’s card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-13

1.20 Mares Novices Hurdle.

This was a cracking high quality race this year with last year’s winner Golden Ace now a Champion Hurdle winner.

This year the quality seems to have dipped plenty – but that gives us a much bigger field instead.

I doubt anything will be going on to be Champion Hurdle quality in the future.

It’s a race that has produced shocks before when there have been big fields so I’m not going into it with maximum confidence but there are two very useful types from the flat that would be at the top of my shortlist.

If there is a strong pace, it should suit the claims of Sixandahalf. She is a progressive mare from the Gavin Cromwell yard (whose runners have been performing largely well at the meet so far). Stamina would seem to be her forte given her third place in the Irish Cesarewitch.

I just wonder over this two mile trip and the prospect of drying ground that Galileo Dame may have a bit too much zip for her. Joseph O’Brien has already had one 4 year old winner on Tuesday and this one has better form than that during her flat career. She is going the right way over hurdles too and gets a very handy ten pound allowance from the rest of the field.

Aurora Vega is a daughter of Cheltenham legend Quevega, but although she has the highest official mark here of 141, I really can’t see what she has done to merit that.

Diva Luna, was very good in bumpers this year. She disappointed at Sandown in the New Year but the trainer reports she is back to her best now. If so she could be a big player but I wonder if a longer trip would suit.

Jubilee Alpha has strong form this year bit I can’t help but think she needs softer ground

Selection; Galileo Dame is most appealing here to me but the 6/1 that was available last night has all gone now after her trainer got an early winner. 9/2 is the best price right now so I fear the value may have disappeared

****

2.00 Jack Richards Novices Limited Hcap Chase

Another Joseph O’Brien plot is envisaged by the layers here with Nurburgring at the top of the market. On his hurdling form he would have a great chance but I have yet to see anything in his chase performances to suggest he is as good over the larger obstacles. I’d want a double figure price on him to get interested in any way.

The key race for me now came here in December:

Jango Baie has hardly done this form any harm by winning the Arkle but he was getting 8 pounds from Springwell Bay here, suggesting they are similar types. Caldwell Potter had a huge reputation before this and disappointed many but he is 5 pounds better off with Springwell Bay now.

On soft ground, I would be favouring Caldwell Potter but with that looking unlikely I think Springwell Bay will have the class to defy top weight here. He had several options to choose from and ended up here. He won again on this course since and was really impressive in doing so. I think he is better than a handicapper (as long as the ground isn’t too testing) over this trip

Recommendation

1pt ew Springwell Bay taking 15/2 or better

*****

2.40 Pertemps Final Hcap Hurdle

Runners have to go through qualifying races to get here by finishing in the first 4. Much of that qualifying will have to been done on softer ground than this and this may cause some form turnarounds. It also means it’s harder to protect a mark as some exposure has to be seen beforehand.

I’ve already highlighted in previous post that Nicky Henderson has a mean profit/loss record in these sort of races.

He fields three here – Jeriko du Reponet, Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob

Jeriko Du Reponet has an obvious chance – he was fancied to be one of the top novices last year and before the wheels fell off in the Supreme Novices you would have imagined he was going to end up well above a 140 rated horse. A setback kept him off until February when he finished 2^nd. He was in a decent position but was knocked back by a mistake and being blocked by a rival up front which put him on the back foot. From then on I got the impression that qualifying rather than winning was at the forefront of Nico de Boinville’s mind. He duly did that and confirmed in my mind that he is better than his current mark of 135.

The downside is his price of around 5/1. That’s very short for such a competitive race.

Doddiethegreat appeared not to get up the hill here in a shorter race last year. Admittedly, the stable were in dire form then and he may have an excuse but I’m still not convinced of him on this track.

Shanagh Bob, on the other hand, has won here before and looks more of a stayer. He’s the one that I like most of the trio from an each way perspective with 6 places being offered. He is 4 pounds better off with Super Survivor who beat him at Huntingdon but this track and ground are likely to suit him better.

Back in 4^th in the same race, Zain Nights, is also one to be strongly considered. He will most definitely prefer the better ground here and has good previous course form

Whilst, I can’t ignore the chance of Jeriko Du Reponet I can make him a recommendation at such a low price. I can see him making a mockery of his mark but I much prefer to back bigger prices each way that provide better value

Recommendations therefore are

0.5 pts ew Shanagh Bob (22/1 best price available as I write with 6 places)

0.5 pts ew Zain Nights (28/1 available in a couple of places)

*****

3.20 Ryanair Chase

I’ve already covered this to some degree in my ‘early ante post selections’ blog and see no reason to move away from last year’s winner, Protektorat.

If Il Est Francais had proven form here I would be in fear of him – but he’s only used to racing on flat tracks and has been kept away from here thus far in his career. If he takes to the fences he will be the hare to catch and he’ll make this a test for all. I’d be a bit worried to watch his bold technique on the downhill fences here especially though.

Fact to File has been rerouted here from the Gold Cup and whilst he must have a chance he is too short a price for me.

Djelo beat Protektorat at right handed Huntingdon but my selection patently is better going left handed and reversed the form in no uncertain fashion next time back on left hand track (like here)

Jungle Boogie is a talented horse who deserves a mention but the fact he is so lightly raced for an 11 year old shows how fragile he is.

If you followed my ante post recommendation you are already having money running up from Tuesday on Protektorat after Haiti Couleurs win so would be unnecessary to give him as a recommendation again here. He remains the selection though at around 6/1. A bit of dig in the ground would be ideal but he has form on Good also.

*****

4.00 Stayers Hurdle

I put up Teahupoo to win this at a short enough price last year. He’s had the same light preparation he needs this year but I just don’t get the same positive vibes from the stable as there was 12 months ago.

Langer Dan seems to spring to life at this meeting every year and we can usually forget all the weak looking form he has had in his previous runs. It would be no shock to see him winning.

Home By The Lee, despite being 10, looks an improved horse this year but he has been here before and generally given the impression this course isn’t quite where he thrives. He is still respected.

Lucky Place is the up and comer but is unproven at 3 miles. If he improves again for the trip he enters the equation (close form twice in his career with Champion Hurdle winning Golden Ace). It’s too much of a guess for me though that the trip will suit.

If it did come up very soft, Nemean Lion would be a lively outsider. That’s unlikely to happen though and if ground dries out I think he will be a non-runner.

Selection: This isn’t a betting race for me but if I had to pick one it would be Langer Dan from a somewhat cynical view on his regular massive improvement at this meeting

****

4.40 Plate Hcap Chase

Another very competitive handicap where I’m sure offering 6 places for each way would have been the norm a year ago – but sadly only 5 places here. I’d rather have the old traditional ¼ odds 1234 I think than these supposedly ‘enhanced’ terms

At the top of the handicap, Conflated and Ginnys Destiny have back form that would make them still well in – but neither have been in the same form this year.

Venetia Williams used to be a trainer to really watch in this race and so both Gemirande and Demnat are worthy of respect, but I feel both may come up short

Three for my shortlist here:

Masaccio is 6 pounds better off for nearly 4 lengths with current favourite Jagwar from their last encounter– but I think he has good chances to reverse the form and is much the better value of the pair. Masaccio had to carry a 12 stone burden on softer ground that day and these conditions will suit better. The addition of first time cheekpieces is also noteworthy.

Fugitif has loads of past course form and still remains on a competitive mark of 149. His last run was over a trip that is to far for him and is easily discounted. He has won races of a similar level off higher marks here and is 8 pounds better off with Gemirande from their running here in December. He is also well in on previous course form with Il Ridoto. Ideally, he’d like a bit of cut in the ground but even on good ground he has shown he can be competitive.

Finally, Personal Ambition, also carries first time cheekpieces and was very unlucky not to win at Ascot earlier in the season but for a last fence mistake that nearly took Ben Jones out of the saddle. Soft ground last time was against him and his record on better ground suggests his mark of 137 is very workable.

Whilst he has no previous course form, a Kelso win over Jango Baie (what has that done since!) shows a track with an uphill finish will hold no fears.

I put up Shakeumupharry for the same stable when he won this race last year with Ben Jones on board. That one hasn’t been in the same form this year though and it’s noteworthy that stable jockey Ben is on Personal Ambition this time round.

I’ll be covering myself with all three here

Recommendations

1pt ew Masaccio 10/1 best price currently available

0.5 pts ew Fugitif 16/1

0.5ts ew Personal Ambition 20/1

****

5.20 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

The first race this year that is for amateur riders only. There is always a wide gulf between the quality of riders in this and more inexperienced ones can often go too fast too early and pay fo rit late on

A JP McManus horse was heavily backed in this last year and dotted up after being thrown in with a weight that was ultimately far too lenient (he‘s now favourite for the Grand National and has a live each way chance in the Gold Cup)

We have another who looks to be plotted up from the same owner now In Johnnywho. Four runs over chases were required for him to qualify and get a mark. He did this whilst looking that he was being held back on more than one occasion.

The handicapper wasn’t totally fooled but still dropped him down from 144 to 140. The likelihood remains that he is better and he has the services of probably the best amateur jockey in the race.

I have to give a mention to locally trained Manofthepeople at a very big price who may get the decent ground he needs. On his winning form here in April I would give him a chance. However, he ran so badly at his last course visit that I can’t really forget that enough to recommend him. He’d perhaps be a very speculative small ew punt

Selection is Johnnywho but his price is too low for me to make a recommendation on him

Thanks for reading once again

Paul

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 12, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: Horse Racing, horses, sports

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

11 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

The Festival got under way today with the ground looking to be good to soft in opening races – and with a drying afternoon it won’t get any worse. The chase course was riding a bit slower than the hurdles course according to Nico de Boinville after his ‘off the sofa’ ride in the Arkle.

A note on the weather for Wednesday morning. There seems to be a possibility of frost overnight and wintry showers on Wednesday morning. This should stop any possibility of the ground drying further and may make it more testing yet. A ground update from Cheltenham tomorrow morning is recommended https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/.

I’ll go through my thoughts below on assumption of it remaining Good to Soft.

****

Onto Day 2 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-12

1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle

6 of the 11 runners here are from the Mullins stable but Final Demand looks to be the clear number one. He was very impressive last time, albeit over a longer trip and comes here with a rating 5 pounds more than anything else. I do feel he is the one to beat but the shorter trip and the undulating course (can be more of an issue for bigger horses like him) are at the back of my mind. With stamina seemingly a forte and 4 stablemates to help out, I’m expecting a well-run race to avoid an ill-suiting sprint finish

The New Lion is unbeaten and was very impressive in winning the Challow Hurdle over Christmas (a race that a notoriously bad record for its winners coming here it has to be said). The form of that race doesn’t look quite so good to me now as it did then though – even though he did win easily. He is the big UK hope here representing the Dan Skelton stable

Back in 3^rd in the Challow was Bill Joyce by 5.5 lengths. That horse then went to Cheltenham and was beaten 12 lengths by Sixmilebridge with Potters Charm separating them in 3^rd.

Admittedly Sixmilebridge was receiving weight from both 2^nd and 3^rd that day but it still makes him a viable opponent here with proven course form.

Potters Charm was odds-on favourite that day and didn’t run up to expectations. Connections did seem to have an argument about running him and it might have been better if he didn’t. His previous form on this track was excellent and if he is 100% again (stable suggests he is), he is another real contender.

The Yellow Clay was fancied but only sixth in last year’s Champion Bumper. He has been solid in his hurdles this season. Similarly to Potters Charm, he doesn’t win his races flashily but grinds them out more. That’s a good quality for me when it comes to an uphill finish like this.

I’m struggling to see a case for anything outside of these 5 but Mullins 2^nd or 3^rd strings have run well before so if fancying any of those at a big price there is still some hope.

Again Skybet offer an extra fourth place here for each-ways but again their model has shortened the win odds compared to other firms to account for this

Selection: I think Final Demand is the likeliest winner – more so if the ground doesn’t dry up any more overnight. His price is a bit too short for me though at under 2/1. I see more value in the prices of Potters Charm and Sixmilebridge as each way selections. Betting both with 4 places at Skybet makes a bit more appeal here but you’d want to back them at SP and hope for better than their current prices here. That might well happen if the two favourites are well backed

No recommendations given the advice is very limited to one bookmaker and it’s not one I can get a bet on with myself for more than pennies!

****

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase

It’s sad to see the premier longer distance race for novice chasers has no UK trained runners this year. Also 4 of the 7 runners are from the Mullins stable.

Ballyburn is the obvious favourite. He isn’t proven over this trip but wasn’t stopping last time out. His jumping isn’t flawless but it’s no worse than stablemate Dancing City’s (may require softer ground to make it more a stamina test).

Last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Stellar Story, takes the prize for most awkward looking jumper in the field though. He looked like he was given a ride just to get round and improve his confidence last time or else he may have beaten his stablemate, Better Days Ahead.

If the ground did dry further then Gorgeous Tom could become more of a contender. He’s also unproven on the trip but looks like he may relish it.

Selection. I can’t really avoid Ballyburn here. His hurdling form is a good notch above these. Would I back him around Evens though in what may be his stiffest jumping test yet – unlikely!

*****

2.40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

I’ve been sweet on Beat the Bat for some time in this race. I wasn’t sure he would get in with his lower weight so was delighted to see him scrape in at number 24.

Harry Fry’s charge run in top two mile handicaps the last two occasions and been well supported in both. It’s been evident in both though that the trip was too short and I’m sure this longer trip is something he is crying out for. His last race at Newbury has often been a good guide for this race.

Ground is not an issue whichever way it goes overnight here

Given, Dan Skelton’s past prowess in doing long range plots for handicap hurdles here respect has to be given to Be Aware. The horse’s name is well found though as bookmakers are fully aware of his credentials in making him around 5/1.

Softer ground does seem a positive for him so any overnight changes are worth noting – he is just too short a price for me now.

Willie Mullins’ Bunting is currently sharing favouritism but the stable’s record in handicap hurdles is pretty dire if you look at my previous post on this subject. I note from www.gaultstats.com that he is 1 from 50 in this race since 2010

The Mullins stable also field Jimmy Du Seuil who has s standout piece of form from this meeting last year that he hasn’t matched since. If he did find himself in the groove back here he would be a contender.

Ballyadam was 2^nd in this race last year from a mark of 147 (has today). He also ran well in the County Hurdle the previous year off. Good ground is probably what he wants and it’s easy to see him running well again but at the age of 10 now can he really improve to win off a higher mark than he has had to shoulder before.

Not every firm offering enhanced 6 places here as yet – which has been replicated moreso in other handicaps. It’s been noticeable that 5 places is often more prevalent this year and as such there is a bit less value in handicaps to be seen generally so far. In contrast, Skybet offer 8 places if you can get a bet on with them

Recommendation. Back Beat the Bat 1 pt each way at 14/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or better

****

3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Any regular devotees of my blog will know this is the time I put the kettle on and sit down to watch without getting involved in betting. A history of having jockeys taking the wrong course on this special course doesn’t help. This is the first year it has been a handicap which should make it more competitive. I still can’t help think it’s like going to Wimbledon but watching an Exhibition match played between old professionals and employing a few trick shots

With all that in mind I’ll pass on a selection and just wish anyone luck who has a bet on it!

****

4.00 Queen Mother Champion Chase

As long as we stick with a flat field of 8 runners here then each way options will give us 3 places. If one were to come out then it would go down to 2 places and make each way betting a bit less attractive.

Jonbon is unbeaten in this division this year and this looks like the opportunity for him to land his Festival win. He has been second twice here in the past and had to be withdrawn late last year when his stable had some huge issues with the form of their horses.

If it did get very soft ground it might make things harder but that looks unlikely.

One of Nico de Boinville’s main tasks will be to focus on not giving too much rope to the field’s obvious front runner, Solness.

Solness has been a revelation at Leopardstown this year when he has taken his form to a new level. He hasn’t been taken on for the lead much and connections would have been delighted when another pace option, Matata, was taken out of the race at the 5 day stage.

If he is let to roll along up front and get a decent lead, he could be dangerous (a previous run on this track wasn’t great) but I don’t think Jonbon will let him get away.

If the ground does soften up then I can envisage a better run from the 2022 champion Energumene. He is 11 years old now and firmly in the veteran stage. He was put in his place last time out by Jonbon but showed he still retains plenty of ability.

With Solness here to force the pace, and Jonbon likely to be ghosting him, I can envisage more of a hold up ride on Energumene here. This tactic worked well for him in 2022. I do think he needs some cut in the ground to have a real shot at Jonbon though

Selection; Jonbon has to be my pick on all form this year. At around 7/1 I I think Energumene would provide some each way value though – but only if the ground remains good to soft or deeper – and that there remain 8 runners. Therefore I’ll only be looking to bet him as we get closer to the race

*****

4.40 Grand Annual Challenge Cup

Another competitive handicap with last year’s winner, Unexpected Party, returning to try and retain his title of a 6 pound higher mark. The respect that bookmakers have for his trainer has again been reflected in his odds though I’d suspect Skelton may have hoped to get him lower than this mark if he could have done.

Jazzy Matty is also a previous Festival winner having triumphed in the Juveniles handicap hurdle in 2023.He is a novice here but looks to have been plotted up with a hurdle race preparation. Before then he’d gone close in a 4 runner novice chase – the form of which may be questionable as the race was very slowly run.

JPR One is the class horse of the race but has to carry 12 stone because of it and of the higher weights I prefer My Mate Mozzie, who finished one place in front of him in last year’s Arkle and is 5 pounds better off.

The likely strong pace here is likely to suit My Mate Mozzie’s hold up style. He’s a versatile horse who was placed at Royal Ascot on the flat last year but is equally effective over chases and hurdles at a high level.

He wouldn’t want to see lots of rain and I can also say the same for General Medrano who should also be suited by strong pace. He got to the front too soon at Doncaster last time but was massively impressive at Newbury earlier in the season. He’s never raced at Cheltenham before so there has to be a little question mark in my head as to if he will cope with the undulations. The price is big enough to mitigate those doubts though

Two selections here;

Recommendations

1pt ew My Mate Mozzie taking 7/1 or better with 5 places

0.5 pts ew General Medrano taking 20/1 or better

****

5.20 Champion Bumper

Another impossible race where to have any idea you would want some inside stable info – ideally from the Mullins stable with its 5 runners (a small entry from them this year!).

Copacabana’s place at the head of the market was cemented when JP McManus recently said it as his only bet coming into the meeting. An odd thing to say when he doesn’t own and recently paid plenty for Aqua Force in the same race.

Lots of horses here with impressive recent wins but we can’t be sure what they beat and how strong the form is.

Another race to sit out with no selection – but to watch carefully with a view to the future as it is a breeding ground for future good hurdlers and chasers

****

Overall, this looks a quieter betting day for me today but hopefully some food for thought is in there …for 5 of the races at least!

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back

Paul

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 11, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: betting, Cheltenham, Horse Racing, horses, sports

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

10 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

Welcome back to annual followers of my blog covering the 4 days of National Hunt racing’s Olympics!

I’ll try to work through all races again on a day-by-day basis highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself. Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.

My main social media activity now on horse racing is the Blue Sky app (bsky.app) where I’ll post any extra snippets I see during the week (@senormoodoir.bsky.social ). I have already added a few early ante post interests in there this year – some of which the prices have now dropped a good bit on – so the value on those may have disappeared by now.

I used to cover the statistical pointers that can often pick out winners but this is done so much better in recent years by www.gaultstats.com. It is Bryan Gault’s last year doing this invaluable resource and please remember to contribute to the cause he is doing it for if finding it useful.

There is a slightly different look to this year’s Festival with the placement of races and the removal of a couple of races to be replaced by new handicaps.

Centrepiece races have now been moved back to 4pm each day and are now the 5^th race on the card. Great news for younger fans who may have been trapped in school and unable to watch – about 50 years too late for me though in that regard!

Ground conditions are always going to play a significant factor. Last year we had softer conditions but there has been less rain this year and some watering has been already done to try and ensure we get Good to Soft or even Good ground which so often the Festival begins with.

Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-11-cheltenham

*take note that Oddschecker has now started to charge for this service after they deem you to have used it too much – change to another browser if you can when that happens and you should be able to access again

***

Day 1 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-11. *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses

1.20 Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The traditional opener to the meeting is this year run in honour of 2023’s winning jockey, Michael O’Sullivan, who tragically died from a riding accident last month.

It would certainly be quite fitting if the same colours were to triumph again here with William Munny, a horse with a live each-way chance.

William Munny was one of the best bumper horses in Ireland last season but it wasn’t until his 3^rd run over hurdles before he started to finally began to realise his hurdling potential with a very easy win at Punchestown. Prior to that he hadn’t settled in his races and was beaten 7 lengths by Workahead at Leopardstown. The two reoppose here but I wouldn’t take that form literally as the second looked a different article last time.

Romeo Coolio was similar level in bumpers to William Munny last year and has transitioned to hurdles very well this year.

These three are all contenders for the places for me though if Kopek Des Bordes can show the same form that blew away a decent field with ease at Leopardstown in February. One of six runners from the all-powerful Willie Mullins stable here, he is clearly their number one.

His hurdling debut showed some jumping flaws bu they did seem to have been ironed out next time. However he did show a possible weakness when getting very lit up in the preliminaries and looking like he might get out of control with jockey Paul Townend early on. I’m sure the stable would have worked on that since and a hood is applied for the first time here to help deal with the task he is going to face (Willam Munny also wearing the same first time headgear).

There is a real pressure cooker atmosphere for the first race as the crowd get revved up for the first race and there is a traditional roar. False starts are not uncommon in this race so it does present a test for the favourite.

In short I think, the biggest rival for Kopek Des Bordes could be himself. If the start goes fine and he settles he is going to take a lot of beating. If things don’t go so well then others have a chance.

At around Even money to win I can’t therefore support him.

In the past many firms have dangled a carrot in this opening race with extra places to give some value. Only Skybet have gone that far this year but in so doing are offering slightly lower prices than others so I’m still not getting too excited there (marginal preference for Romeo Coolio as the one who looks guaranteed to finish in the top 4 to me but not much between him, Workahead and William Munny)

I must also mention Tripoli Flyer who showed what an engine he has when winning the last twice easily despite some indifferent hurdling. His best form is all on decent ground (should get that) and on flat tracks (won’t get that). I thought Aintree in April would be far more suitable for him so a little surprised to see him running here. If he can cope with the track he is definitely dangerous. However, the fact his stable haven’t yet run him here , despite being almost next door to the track, suggests to me that it may not be ideal for him.

Selection: KOPEK DES BORDES (but not a betting proposition for me)

****

2.00 Arkle Challenge Trophy

I’ve already covered this in my earlier post regarding some early selections. Not much has changed except there are now only 5 runners and so there is no more each way with 3 places.

I think Majborough will win if he jumps round cleanly – but he is flamboyant at times and I can easily see him making a bad mistake at some point on this tricky course. If he does that would let the clean jumping course winner L’Eau Du Sud in as the most likely to profit.

Both horses have already beat Touch Me Not this season and should do so again. That one’s inclusion in the race is good though as he is a decent jumper who can put pressure on the favourite up front.

Jango Baie looks like he needs further and might be caught for pace at a crucial stage but should be running on late. Only By Night also looks likely to be held up and delivered late but I just don’t think her form is good enough to win.

Selection: I’ve already put up L’EAU DU SUD when each way 1/5 odds 123 was available. Place odds are less attractive now this has become less of a betting proposition. I still think he represents a little more value than the odds on favourite Majborough though

****

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase

Always a competitive handicap and one that has served me well over the years.

I’m find it very tricky this year though!

The Changing Man has done well to stay on a mark of 140 after a bloodless win last time (aided by all his rivals making errors). He has been a slow developer with his jumping technique but finally seems to have got his act together now. Whilst he has been consistent in decent handicaps this season he has been beaten in them off lower marks than here. The handicap record of his trainer Joe Tizzard (see my earlier post on trainer stats) is also disconcerting. He has a chance but I can see him placing again rather than winning – and also I think a smaller field may have suited him better.

Broadway Boy has a fine record on this course and runs here in preparation for the Grand National. That slightly puts me off here as you would imagine that connections have left some room for improvement with a bigger aim to come. He may prefer softer and for a front runner to win this off such a high weight would be quite some task.

I’ve always been drawn to lower weights carrying less than 11 stone in this race.

Katate Dori would immediately therefore be on the shortlist after an impressive win last time that sees his mark increase by 12 pounds here. He may well still be ahead of the handicapper.

Lucinda Russell has won race before and has both Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown in the right weight zone. The former has stable jockey Derek Fox on board and appears to be the number one (if there is a jockey switch take note). He had a nice sighter of these fences over an inadequate trip last time. Additionally, Whistle Stop Tour would appear to appreciate the drying conditions while Myretown may prefer softer.

Marginal preference though is for Irish challenger, The Short Go who had Broadway Boy behind him here earlier in the season (latter beaten 11 lengths and is only 5 pounds better of). He obviously doesn’t cope with deep winter ground and the forecast conditions here must be in his favour. With Rachel Blackmore on board, he might well be a popular pick on the day. Expect to see a hold up ride with him being smuggled into the race late on.

I also can’t leave an old friend, Straw Fan Jack, completely alone at huge odds. His form has been indifferent this year but there were signs of a revival last time and he’s now on a 6 pound lower mark than when 3^rd at the Festival last year (Reopposing Crebilly just ahead but worse off here yet a much shorter price). His jumping can be erratic but his form at Cheltenham overall isn’t bad. The trip is a slight question mark but he is a huge price to make up for that

Selections: Not a race for risking too much on but I’m interested in The Short Go at around 14/1 each way with firms offering 6 places. Also a speculative little each way on Straw Fan Jack at 50/1 or bigger

Recommendations

1pt ew The Short Go

0.5 pts ew Straw Fan Jack

3.20 Mares Hurdle

The complexion of this race changed enormously at the final declaration stage when last year’s winner, Lossiemouth, was declared rather than the Champion Hurdle.

Her form should be on a different level to the rest but she did suffer a nasty fall last time. She should win, but there is always going to be a slight seed of doubt about whether she is fully 100% given she sidestepped the bigger prize.

With her being odds-on favourite it’s also killed any hope of being offered an extra place on the race.

It’s possible to give place chance to nearly all the rest but I’m most drawn to Queens Gamble given she has such good past course form and will like the better ground.

A plot to take a big handicap at Leopardstown in February was scuppered by softer conditions and a bruised knee during the race (also not Blackmore’s finest of rides).

I think she’ll benefit form a longer trip here and can see her running well.

She probably won’t beat the favourite if on song but many firms offer ‘betting without the favourite’ and that option becomes more interesting in this circumstance.

Selection: QUEENS GAMBLE each way in the ‘Betting without Lossiemouth’ market at hopefully 16/1 or better

Recommendation: 1pt ew Queens Gamble – in betting without Lossiemouth market

*****

4.00 Champion Hurdle

I’ll cut to the chase here for Tuesday’s premier race.

Constitution Hill is probably the best hurdler I have seen since Golden Cygnet in the mid 1970s when I first started watching this sport.

Unless something is ailing him, and I can’t imagine he would be here if his trainer didn’t think he was 100% , then I struggle to see him getting beaten. If anything, my biggest worry would be the final hurdle. He didn’t met it right in his last run and when last wining this race he jumped way too early after seeing a shadow on it

Brighterdaysahead is a fine mare and its great to see here in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. Her pacemaker, King of Kingsfield, should make this race a true test. They employed similar tactics to hand out a thrashing to the 2024 Champion Hurdler, State Man, over the Christmas period.

That tactic should be enough to derail any hopes for State Man again, but if anything it will be help for Constitution Hill. The favourite’s most impressive career win in the Supreme Novices Hurdle came on the back of a breakneck pace also.

Burdett Road likes to force the pace also so might also find himself on the backfoot on the uphill home straight.

I put up Golden Ace as a value each way proposition on Blue Sky at 100/1 at the beginning of the year. I thought I had done my money on that as she looked likely to be in the Mares Hurdle but a late change of mind was very welcome.

I can see here being ridden for a place here (will add plenty of value to her as a broodmare) and am hopeful she can take advantage of others being broken by the favourite.

There is no more 100/1 though and no more 3 place options for each way so the value on her has largely gone

Selection; CONSTITUTION HILL – but at no more than 8/13 there aren’t too many rich pickings to be gained here

***

4.40 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Another race where I was active on Blue Sky a few weeks ago to suggest Hot Fuss at 33/1 after an unconventional prep run at Southwell.

I think he ran in one of the best juvenile races in the UK this season when putting it up to current Triumph Hurdle favourite, East India Dock, at Wincanton. He was a little disappointing in deep ground at Chepstow over Christmas but that has meant he has a nice low mark of 122 here. His Southwell win wouldn’t have affected his mark but it showed an improved performance sporting a first time visor.

Connections now use first time blinkers and I think he’s very much one to keep on the right side of whilst he has an attractive mark.

Chief danger is another of East India Dock’s victims this year, French raider Stencil. Stencil was the only one to keep with his conqueror’s strong pace last time and only gave way in the closing stages after travelling noticeably well. He is the likely favourite here but I don’t think his mark of 135 is unduly harsh – and the pace of this race will suit.

James Reveley has been saying is preview evenings recently that his mount is better than a handicapper and I tend to agree.

Far less attractive is well supported Irish raider, Total Look, who I think may almost get the prize of worst handicapped horse in the race. His UK mark of 132 is 9 pounds higher than his current Irish mark of 123. Additionally, he was beaten by both Quantock Hills and Teriferma at this track in December when receiving weight from both. Now he has to give them both 6 pounds. Cheekpieces may be on for the first time and his trainer is a shrewd operator – but if this wins there should be a stewards enquiry for some explanations!

I’m largely in the mind that Irish juvenile hurdlers this season are coming into this a little bit too harshly handicapped. It must be noted though that Joseph O’Brien won this last year with another horse who didn’t look that well in but had been prepared especially for the race. Take note then for any strong money on the day for Puturhandstogether or Beyond Your Dreams (not least because they are both owned by prolific punter JP McManus)

Selections:

STENCIL Each way taking 11/2 or better – some firms offering 6 places but not all

HOT FUSS 12/1 each way – the really nice prices have already gone unfortunately

Recommendations

2pts ew Stencil

1pt ew Hot Fuss

*****

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap

A big change to this long distance novices race this year. For the first time it is now a handicap and is no longer the domain of amateur riders. A ceiling for horse with marks no more than 145 also restricts the upper echelon of novice chasers from taking part. A bit of early planning from some stables would have been needed.

As there is no previous running there are no previous stats to work from either.

Another race I’ve already covered to some degree when offering up Haiti Couleurs in my Early Ante Post selections post.

I’m still strongly in his favour. Connections think highly enough of him to think they could have run him in the Turners Novice Chase tomorrow – a non-handicap novices championship race – but his handicap mark of 135 meant this race was always going to be more ttractive.

He has purposefully been given a small break since his immaculate round of jumping to secure a course win here in December. A hurdles run last month which would not affect his chase mark was more than satisfactory and his trainer has a great strike rate at the Festival from not too many past runners

That Cheltenham piece of form is the key to this race I think and also throws up his biggest danger, Transmission. Neil Mulholland’s charge is reunited with Patrick Mullins here and is 4 pounds better off for just over 2 lengths. He has also had a recent run over hurdles to protect his chase mark and promises to be suited by a longer trip.

The prevailing ground shouldn’t be a barrier to either horse and I think they are the two best handicapped horses in this race on this years form.

Gericault Roque is also well handicapped on past Festival form but he has only run once this year after a long lay-off since 2022. There is always a chance of a dip back in form after such a break but he still can’t be totally discounted.

Again we have a short priced Gavin Cromwell runner here, Now Is the Hour, where I simply don’t get the shortened odds. He has undoubtedly not been showing all his card this year to try and get a slimmer mark but 139 has a bit bigger waistline that they would have hoped for. His stand out piece of form comes from very deep ground at Haydock. That’s a specialist track when the ground is deep and it’s like chalk and cheese compared to this course with drier conditions

Selections: HAITI COULEURS 4/1 and TRANSMISSION 11/2 (currently best prices with all firms seeming offering 5 places rather than 6)

Recommendations:

2pts ew Haiti Couleurs

1.5 pts ew Transmission

****

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,

Paul

(I will be posting my thoughts for Wednesday’s card late tomorrow afternoon after scrutinising early results)

Already recommended on previous blog post L’Eau Du Sud 2.40 and Haiti Couleurs 5.20

Already recommended on previous BSky posts – Golden Ace e/w 100/1 4.00; Hot Fuss 33/1 4.40

(Note I have also also recommended Beat the Bat in Wednesday’s Coral Cup at 25/1 on BSky who was also confirmed for the race today and I’ll cover again tomorrow)

1 Comment

Posted by senormoodoir on March 10, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: betting, Cheltenham, cheltfest, constitutionhill, Horse Racing, horses, racing, sports

Cheltenham 2025 – some early selections

22 Feb

Cheltenham 2025 – Early selections

An extra post here with a small number of selections I feel may be worth including in ante post multiples.

I’m suggesting these now as think the odds may be changing in the not too distant future as running plans become more apparent. The annual blitz of Cheltenham Preview Evenings will soon be starting as well and we’ll be besieged with information (much of it replicated from the same sources) from those

If I were at such a Preview Night I’d be suggesting these!

The selections below are all recommended using firms that offer NRNB (money back if one of them is a non-runner) and most definitely with each way betting in mind. All three selections have good win chances in my opinion but I find it difficult to see any of them avoiding being placed right now. (If all three are placed it will give a fine return and any winners will simply be a bonus)

***

Onto the selections:

Arkle Trophy – 11^th March – L’eau Du Sud

(Generally available at 4/1 1/5 odds 123 – 9/2 in one place with NRNB)

I’m suggesting this one now whilst firms still offer 3 places as feel it is only a matter of time before it comes apparent that less than 8 may run and it becomes ¼ odds 12).

He’s the archetypal ‘filthy each way’ that firms won’t really be keen to lay as his win price is fine but applying 1/5^th to get place odds of 4/5 gives far more than his true place chances.

L’eau du Sud was held in high regard by his stable from the outset of his career but it wasn’t until last season that he started to fulfil those expectations with two near misses in valuable handicaps.

The trainer rarely sends his hurdlers over chases if he doesn’t think they can progress further and this one has been razor sharp with his fencing. He is unbeaten in all 4 starts over the bigger obstacles this year including a win over this course. He is proven on all types of going (maybe slightly better on less testing ground which is often what we have here).

His latest win at Warwick wasn’t maybe as impressive as some would have hoped. That’s a tricky jumping course though and he had the race won down the back straight with superior fencing over Rubaud (winner since). Through either lack of a recent run or idling, the advantage dwindled close home.

I don’t expect him to be in front anything like so far out here.

The main danger is very obvious with odds on favourite Majborough from the Willie Mullins stable. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner is also unbeaten this year and on form he fully deserves such a position, especially getting a handy allowance from the selection s he is a 5 year old.

The issue for me is Majborough’s jumping which has been a little ‘exuberant’. On the whole he’s looked good but there have been times where you might have been hiding behind the sofa whilst watching. He’s’got away without any mistakes so far but this is not a forgiving place if he puts in a wrong one.

Majborough will undoubtedly lead in this race, and at such a pace that he’ll test the others. If he puts in a blemish free round he will likely win but I’m not convinced he will and that will let in the selection, who I expect to be ridden to track him.

Of the others, Jango Baie is only here because of the withdrawal of his stablemate Sir Gino and he would no doubt prefer a stiffer test. I think he may struggler with the pace set .

Touch Me Not has been second to both Majborough and L’eau du Sud this season and no reason to suspect a form turnaround. He should again serve to keep the favourite’s jumping honest.

Only By Night’s form has come against mares and her last win just didn’t look good enough to be a threat here to me.

I’m struggling to find definite runners outside of these. Ballyburn likely goes to another race. Firefox, Jordans, Caldwell Potter and San Salvador all seem earmarked for handicaps at the meeting. Gidleigh Park missed his prep run at Kempton this weekend with a setback which must make his participation more unlikely.

I’m therefore thinking we may end up with only 5 or 6 runners here, which isn’t uncommon for this race

L’Eau du Sud is an absolute lock in for me on all each multiple bets and has to be included in the recommendation

****

National Hunt Chase – 11^th March – Haiti Couleurs

(currently 5/1 available in a couple of places, a minimum of 4/1 will be acceptable taking either 1/5 odds 12345 or ¼ odds 1234)

This ‘long distance’ novices chase is a handicap for the first time this year and it’s firmly been the plan for Haiti Couleurs since his win here in January. That was an impressive performance where he was jumping out of Sean Bowen’s hands and had the race wrapped up from a long way out. To only get raised 5 lbs by the handicapper for that effort was quite a result. Non handicaps were in the mind of his trainer, Rebecca Curtis, before then but the new mark made his aim very clear.

A warm up race over hurdles (so not to effect his chase mark) at Newbury recently was highly satisfactory. He jumped the hurdles like they were chases at times and still stayed on strongly at the finish.

He’s been a slow maturing type but seems to be thriving this year and I think he is better than the mark he’s been given. Trainer Rebecca Curtis is no stranger to wins at the Festival wins having had 5 of them in the past. Four of those were in non handicaps and she has compared this horse very favourably to them all

I’m suggesting him now as think there will be market changes on the 25^th February when weights are revealed for the Irish challengers. I’m expecting Shannon Royale, Sa Majeste and Search for Glory to be above the 145 limit and to be non-qualifiers.

Current favourite Now Is The Hour (a tipping line pushed him down from 16/1 to current 7/2 in January) comes from the feared Gavin Cromwell stable. Considering we don’t know this one’s mark yet and he also has the Kim Muir as a possible target, he’s an awful value price for me. He has one huge stand out piece of form over hurdles – in soft ground at Haydock over 3 miles. That track can produce some very specialist form in deep ground – and it’s a world away from the demands of Cheltenham. I’d want to be seeing him get an attractive mark next week and to have soft ground to be a consideration.

Transmission chased home Haiti Couleurs here in December but may also be heading to the Kim Muir (where he could be reunited with Patrick Mullins). Midnight Our Fred is another with a more likely alternative target and Will Do had a hard race earlier this week that might well leave a mark on him here.

In short, I think we could be losing quite a few others who are prominent in the betting here soon and Haiti Couleurs can only shorten

*****

Ryanair Chase – 13^th March – Protektorat

(currently 7/1 best price available in two places, 6/1 more widely available and acceptable with each way terms of 1/5 odds 123 NRNB)

I’m back to the Dan Skelton team here with a horse who will be attempting to win the same race he won last year.

He’s shown no sign of going backwards this year and his trainer has clearly been working back from this target. His final prep at Windsor was his most impressive performance this season by far (easily beating Djelo) and confirmed he is at his best on left handed tracks (his previous run at Huntingdon behind Djelo being on a right handed one).

We again have plenty of rivals quoted here against him who are far from certain runners and have alternative engagements.

The selection had been aimed for the longer distance Gold Cup earlier in his career only to come up a little short over the extra distance. He finally seemed to find his metier in this race last year

Fact to File is the favourite and this would seem to be preferred to the Gold Cup so he can avoid Galopin Des Champs. He is the biggest danger here but at no more than 7/4 his price is far less attractive to me. The shorter trip may help but this race doesn’t appear to be the target that the stable were aiming for early in the season

Il Est Francais may be using this race (or the Champion Chase) to burst his Cheltenham cherry. His Kempton form has been impressive but that course is about as different to Cheltenham as you can get. A left handed, undulating track like Cheltenham will be something totally new to him.

Banbridge is almost certainly Gold Cup bound. Spillanes Tower will probably end up here but has a preference for soft ground and has zero experience at the course. Gaelic Warrior may be Champion Chase bound – but has been disappointing this season. Energumene would be a very unlikely runner here and El Fabiolo has some serious jumping issues to over come now if he turns up here.

I find it hard to envisage Protektorat being out of the frame here as well as having a solid chance to retain his title.

****

So my three early suggestions are:

L’Eau Du Sud 4/1 or better – Arkle 1/5 odds 123

Haiti Couleurs 4/1 or better – National Hunt Chase ¼ odds 1234 or 1/5 odds 12345

Protektorat 6/1 or better – Ryanair Chase 1/5 odds 123

Taking NRNB odds on all

I’d be inclined to cover these three in each way doubles and an each way treble (an each way Trixie if all stakes the same)

For a level 1 unit stake that would mean 8 units staked

(Taking current odds at Bet 365 as an example (9/2, 5/1, 6/1 respectively) this would give a minimum return of 3.8 units if only two were placed. If all three are placed the return would be 20.74 units. If two were to win as well then all the better!)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back

Paul

2 Comments

Posted by senormoodoir on February 22, 2025 in Uncategorized

Cheltenham 2025 – Trainer records in handicaps

20 Feb

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Top trainers in handicaps update

With the publication of entries for this year’s handicaps earlier this week, I thought it an appropriate time to dust off the blog in readiness for the forthcoming Festival (March 11-14). With all that is going on elsewhere in the world, it’s a blessed distraction right now!

I did a post last year highlighting the record of top trainers in the handicaps and have updated the stats for that here with a few comments added.

Weights for these handicaps will be released on Feb 25^th and if for those not already qualified they have to do that by Feb 23^rd.

****

What’s changed this year?

Firstly we have 3 more handicaps than we did last year – and they are all chases:

NH Chase.

This used to be a non-handicap but as field sizes have dwindled in recent years it becomes a handicap and is no longer for amateur riders. Three runs over fences are required to qualify and also there is a limit of a mark of 145. Several Irish runners currently quoted are likely to fall foul of being over 145 I suspect next week. I would be highly wary of backing Shannon Royale (got handed a 148 mark in Jan on a speculative Warwick entry), Sa Majeste and Search For Glory with this in mind.

Jack Richards Novice Hcap

The two and half miles novices’ championship event is no more and is now a handicap with 3 runs over fences again required. This race did exist in another name until 2020 but it then had an upper limit on handicap marks – that doesn’t exist now)

Cross Country Chase

For the first time in its history this is now a handicap. Whilst I’m no fan of this event the change can only make this event a bit more competitive. In common with all aged handicap chases at the meeting, a minimum of 4 runs over fences is required to qualify.

The number of hurdles races remain the same but qualification criteria has changed with 5 runs over hurdles now required in all aged handicaps (3 runs for the 4yo only Boodles hcap)

*****

Who did well last year?

The table below shows how the top trainers I covered in last year’s post did throughout the meeting.

As I did last year, its based on SP returns. Each way is using 1/5 odds 123456 which seems to be fairly standard these days. The ‘standard’ handicap place terms of ¼ odds 1234 aren’t easy to find these days even if you wanted them – I’d often still take that over 1/5 odds 12345 to be honest. While these ‘enhanced’ place terms may look attractive the difference between one quarter and one fifth odds can be quite high and I’d be wanting at least 6 places often to be tempted when it is one fifth.

Analysis of each trainer will follow later.

How does this change these trainers stats over 2019-2024 basis?

An update of the same trainers’ record over the recent 6 year period is here. I’ve separated into hurdles and chasers as there are some notable differences between individual trainer records in each sphere

*****

UPDATED TRAINER ANALYSIS

GORDON ELLIOTT

Elliott’s figures took a nosedive in handicaps last year. He still shows on overall profit on all his runners for each way bets over the 6 years – thanks to some big priced wins and places. He is still supplying more handicap runners than other trainers but it’s much harder to advertise his credentials as a trainer to follow in such races now. Perhaps, the handicapper has more of a grip on them. Perhaps, he is targetting the non handicaps more?

WILLIE MULLINS

As highlighted last year, the Mullins stable are not so impressive from a profit/loss perspective when it comes to handicaps (particularly in handicap chases). A 12/1 win for Absurde in last year’s County Hurdle helped redress his figures in hurdle handicaps.

He can throw unexposed horses in to such races with attractive marks but they are rarely missed by the layers and prices seldom attractive. The new rules on needing 5 hurdle runs to qualify will also make it harder to run such horses.

Mullins remains a trainer to have the utmost respect for in non handicaps but – aside from the County Hurdle ( he does have a decent record in that) and maybe the Martin Pipe hurdle – he obviously doesnt target the handicaps to the same degree.

NICKY HENDERSON

Nicky had a torrid time at last years festival with his stable under a huge cloud and many big names having to be kept at home. Consequently he had much fewer runners, and several of those that did run ran like they had an issue. It’s therefore quite noteworthy that he maintained and even increased his profit for each way supporters in the hurdles handicaps. Lucky Place and Bold Endeavour both finishing 4th at 25/1 and 50/1respectively achieved that. The former drifted to about double his early price – no doubt due o the stable problems.

Henderson remains one to keep on your side in handicap hurdles – and not necessarily with his perceived number 1 runner as historical results will testify.

DAN SKELTON

Dan had a great Festival in 2024, enhancing his P/L in both chase and hurdle handicaps. The layers have long been aware of him as a trainer who can target handicaps so you may not get the prices you would like but he is still capable proven capable of getting a horse into the right race with a workable mark. His hurdles stats are particularly impressive – something we can also relate to his time with the Nicholls stable several years back when he orchestrated some similar long term planning to great success. A trainer to always keep on your side.

PAUL NICHOLLS

This once powerhouse UK stable is a bit of a force in decline lately. His P/L in handicaps had been dire until last year when Monmiral’s win at 25/1 gave some resurgence. Afadil’s 5th place in the County Hurdle also boosted funds (no doubt help by him being gifted many lengths at the start by the rest of the field). It’s hard to imagine, a horse of his would have started 25/1for any handicap in past years (Monmiral had some decent back form) but it does show that the layers aren’t in fear of him and you may get some value on his runners. The fact he had only 5 handicap runners last year shows he has less to play with. I still find it hard to recommend Nicholls in handicaps but at least if you fancy one you might get a price now. The loss of key assistants like Skelton, Derham and Fry over the years has no doubt had an effect

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

Henry used to be quite selective when sending horses to this meeting and was one to be feared. There seem to be more running now – no doubt because of the big name owners he now has – but his P/L is going in the wrong direction. Ballyadam came close to winning the Coral Cup last year but he remains having no hurdle winners in the past 6 years from 24 contenders. Chasers have a better record and where the stable does retain a bit more of an edge. Another stable that may be concentrating more on non handicaps now? As mentioned last year, the presence of Rachel Blackmore on his horses can also serve to push the price down also

VENETIA WILLIAMS

Hurdles stats not included here as Venetia has always had more success in the chasing sphere. She didnt have any winners last year but Gemirande (5th 40/1) and Frero Banbou (6th 28/1 in the Plate – a race she has traditionally done well in) kept her in a good overall profit for each way support in chase handicaps. She is traditionally associated with soft ground performers and can shine in the winter months of deep ground. You’d be wise to write her off in handicap chases still – but even more so if the mud is flying.

JOE TIZZARD

Nothing in his figures to enhance his claims as a trainer to follow in handicaps here. My personal feeling is that his horses are often pitched too high too early and their marks are too exposed by the time they get here

Others of note:

BEN PAULING had an 8/1 winner (Shakeumupharry) and 28/1 second (Twig) in handicap chases last year. He’d be showing a good profit in chase handicaps over the years (largely due to Global Citizen’s 28/1 win in 2022). He wouldn’t have too many runners compared to those already listed but he does seem to be able to target his horses in the chasers for the day.

JOSEPH O’BRIEN may be more flat based but he is still noteworthy when targeting horses for hurdles handicaps. Last years Boodles winner Larkinthemornin didn’t seem nhat attractively handicapped but easily surpassed previous form to give him a 9/1 winner (Harsh was placed at 40/1 in same race for him). Joseph had been to this party before with Band of Outlaws so its a race to watch his runners closely in

*****

Hopefully a bit of food for though in these stats for anyone scrutinising the handicaps in the next few weeks.

My regular blog will be back Cheltenham week

Paul

1 Comment

Posted by senormoodoir on February 20, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: Horse Racing, horses, sports

Grand National 2024

11 Apr

Saturday 13^th April at 4pm is the time to sit tight and hope for no problems at the start in this year’s Grand National.

I was fortunate to grow up in the Red Rum era and it was that that probably cemented it as the race I most looked forward to all year.

Sadly, a lot of tinkering with the safety of the track over recent years has left it not looking quite the race it was, but it remains a spectacle.

This year sees the maximum field reduced to 34 from 40 and a shorter run to the first fence to try and avoid the customary cavalry charge and ensuing falls.

For me, the worst change to the course has been the easing of some of the fencing, most notably Becher’s Brook, which is a pale shadow of the test it used to be.

In days of yore, there was a gamble to be taken by taking the inside line here where the drop was at its steepest. The field would be spread all over the track with the outside line for the safe option.

Now that fence has been eased so much that there is no advantage at all and going wide. Consequently. most horses take a middle to inside line and there can be a bit of a ‘golden highway’ to be taken. This results in too much bunching to get the best line for me and that in itself means accidents are more likely. I’m glad that the field size has been reduced because of this but would prefer it to take a few steps back. Loose horses could still be a major problem with only half of the track really being used

I’m sure there will still be a rush to get a good early position on the right part of the track so I am dubious that the shortened run will have the desired effect at the first fence.

The forecast soft/heavy ground should at least ensure that the field doesn’t go too fast too early (or most won’t get home) so hopefully that does help in reducing the faller list.

The easier fencing has also resulted in more Grade 1 chasers taking their chance here – and nowadays that means mostly Irish runners. The lack of English horses isn’t a good look.

I would like to see the introduction of ‘win and you’re in’ races that allow automatic qualification to circumvent this a bit and give the chance to proven staying types to get back into the race again even if their handicap marks wouldn’t allow it.

Winners of this year’s Welsh National and Becher Chases, and previous year’s winners of Irish, Scottish and Midlands Grand Nationals would all be excellent contenders to be used in my opinion. It’s something that has been used in the Melbourne Cup for many years and might well benefit this race.

THE GROUND

Having watched a few races on the opening day, the ground isn’t as bad as the bog like conditions that had been predicted. It still looked quite hard work in the one race on the national fences where stamina ultimately won the day. Rain is predicted tonight so the extent of that is going to be important. The going can be checked here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/aintree/owners-and-trainers/the-going/ 

****

Onto the race itself. I’ve covered a few vital stats that have found winners in previous years’ posts but as the fences have become easier, they have started to be of less importance and have been broken more often. Pre-2010 I would haven’t have been keen on supporting an 8yo horse in this race but since then 4 have won. Noble Yeats won as a 7yo in 2022 and that was practically unheard of before then. The track changes have definitely helped the less experienced younger horses – and lessened the chances of the hardened 10-year-old + veterans commensurately. It’s now 10 years since the last winner with a double figure age triumphed (Pineau de Re in 2014)

Carrying more than 11 stones used to be a negative, but as the test has lessened it’s become easier. However, the ground looks like it may be softer than it has been for a while this year and that should swing some of the favour back to the lower weights this year.

It’s still noteworthy that in the last 10 years there have still been only two horses who have carried more than 11 stones to victory. The two exceptions were Aintree legend, Tiger Roll, and Many Clouds (a truly gargantuan effort to win under 11st 9lbs – not seen since the days of ‘Rummy’)

A good point to start when analyzing this race is to look at last year’s result, a rerun can be seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBwU4aZEsJw

Several of these meet again but the weights they carry will be higher or lower than this:

1^st Corach Rambler – races off 13lb higher mark

2^nd Vanillier (beaten 2.25 lengths and running off 4lb higher this year)

4^th Noble Yeats (beaten 9.5 lengths – now 1lb lower). He won the race in 2022 but was racing off an 18lb lower mark then.

7^th Roi Mage (beaten 15 lengths – races off same mark)

Pulled Up were Coko Beach (now 6lb higher), Capodanno (one pound higher now).

Unseated Rider – Delta Work (now 2lb lower), Galvin (now 11 lbs lower), Mr Incredible (carries 5lb more now)

Some things to note from watching the race again. The winner got a perfect ride keeping largely to the inside and jumped superbly. Vanillier got too far behind before staying on strongly. Capodanno was still going very well until the latter stages and not persevered with when his chance had gone. Mr Incredible also took a good inside line and had every chance when his saddle slipped at the Canal Turn. Delta Work still had every chance when misfortune struck.

With this in mind let’s now look at this year’s major contenders:

CORACH RAMBLER.

Everything went right for him last year and if anything, he got to the front a bit too soon and could have been value for a bit further. He’s paid for that with his weight increase this year. It could have been worse though as previous winners have had more on their back second time round than him. On his recent Gold Cup third his weight also looks attractive. On the flipside, he is 9lb and 14lb worse off with last years 2^nd and 4^th. That gives them every chance to reverse placings.

You’d have to say Corach Rambler had a slightly harder prep race this year than he did last year and that would be a little concern. Interviewed after the race, trainer Lucinda Russell suggested that jockey Derek Fox ‘looked after him’ on the run-in once his chance to win had gone. He looked legless to me though, and on that soft ground he encountered there it could have taken more out of him than ideal. He has to be a contender, but it is worth noting that he was a similar price of around 5/1 at this stage last year and drifted to 8/1 on the day. I can see his price going out in similar fashion again so if backing him now, you would want ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ to be part of the deal. Very soft ground might not be ideal so any sign of ‘heavy’ in the going on race day wouldn’t be good

I AM MAXIMUS

Last year’s Irish Grand National winner seems to have improved again this year. He easily beat Vanillier in his warm-up race and is weighted to confirm that form. His jumping can be problematic and it’s also significant that all his best performances have come at the right-handed Fairyhouse track. Yet to race over these fences and his form over left-handed tracks like here, is yet to match the mark he has been given here

VANILLIER

A powerful finisher last year coming from a long way back, this horse certainly has an engine. The problem has always been that he hasn’t been the most natural looking jumper and that’s why he probably got too far behind in the race last year. It’s so much easier to run into trouble when most of your opponents are ahead of you here. There are a lot of clips of him schooling recently as they try to improve that aspect but it’s still a big cause for concern. I couldn’t imagine him completing this course in past renewals and it says a lot about how easier things have got that he did so last year. He may also be a better horse when the ground isn’t so soft. If he is withing shouting distance three fences out they should all be scared…but I still think he is odds on not complete even if the jumping test is easier now.

MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

Plenty of money for this one during this week. Although JP McManus’s number one jockey, Mark Walsh, didn’t pick him to ride it’s certainly no bad thing to have Danny Mullins on board (partnered him to win in a hot Leopardstown handicap in December).

Looked like he needed further in a very decent prep effort at Cheltenham last time and he’s in the ideal weight range here now. I think there could be a few better handicapped but there has been a constant whisper from the Mullins stable that he is better than what he has shown so far

KITTYS LIGHT

Last year’s Scottish National winner has crept in at the very foot of weights. He has absolutely no stamina issues but also has no great form on soft ground. That isn’t surprising as his breeding is more Flat than National Hunt orientated. Some may decry his chances as he isn’t that big, but I’ve seen similar sized types jump round here superbly well when the fences were bigger. It’s the ground that will scupper his chances for me and connections will be praying for no more rain and sunshine/drying winds

MR INCREDIBLE

Unlucky to unseat at the Canal Turn last year when still going well (just behind Corach Rambler at the time). He was also only seven then so is entitled to have improved a bit more now. Stamina on soft ground should be no issue here after his second off a high weight in the even mor testing Midlands Grand national last time. If that effort hasn’t left a mark, and he has improved for what was his seasonal debut he has to be a big player here. One of the few who would love it to keep raining.

PANDA BOY

This was my early fancy for the race when the weights first came out. Trainer Martin Brassil knows how to win this race and both he and jockey, JJ Slevin, are underrated in my view. He’s been given an ideal preparation in my eyes with an eye-catching run over an insufficient hurdling test last time out. My main concern has to be the ground though as he often seemed that soft ground wasn’t ideal. His price drifted badly at Leopardstown over Christmas, no doubt due to the softening ground, but still ran a great race. He gave Meetingofthewaters 10 lbs that day and was beaten 4.5 lengths. He is 11lb better off here and that gives him every chance to reverse. He appeared to not quite stay in I Am Maximus’s Irish national win, but he is a big horse, and his trainer has suggested he has strengthened up a lot since then. That could help both his stamina and ground concerns now he’s 8.

MAHLER MISSION

I can’t recall the last time a horse won this having did not have a run in the same calendar year but Mahler Mission hasn’t run since an excellent 2^nd in the Coral Gold Trophy in November. He was raised 7 lbs for that effort and admirable though he is I think his rating overestimates him too much for this

NASSALAM

Stamina on soft ground is again looking assured here after his impressive Welsh Grand National win back in December. He sure paid a price for that though and was walloped with a massive 16lb weight rise for this. A huge task now for a 7-year-old to carry 11st 8lb here

LIMERICK LACE

The Mares Chase winner at Cheltenham was a surprising addition to me given she is still only 7. No doubt it was to take advantage of her mark of 147 and it’s noteworthy that Mark Walsh chose her to ride over both I Am Maximus and Meetingofthewaters. She won at Cheltenham through stamina but that was over 2 and a half miles and way short of this. She’s never raced over more than 3 miles but certainly looks to have stamina potential for further. She exhibited some tail swishing tendencies last time – sometimes worrying – but gets the benefit of the doubt as it didn’t seem to stop her there. If she stays, she’s a dangerous one off quite a nice weight as the ground would not be an issue for her

MINELLA INDO

The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner has gone through some slow regression since then but is still no back number at the age of 11. More concerning is that he always used to be a horse who needed a run to get him fit. His intended prep race at Cheltenham was abandoned and that could leave him at a disadvantage now. Don’t underestimate the power of having Rachel Blackmore in the saddle to bring down his price on the day though (Aintthatashame dropped to 10/1 last year). If you fancy him, it may be best to take an early price now

NOBLE YEATS

The 2022 Grand National winner was given a massive weight rise for his efforts when returning last year but still posted an excellent 4^th. Connections also blamed a hard prep race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup for his effort then and have come here with a less conventional preparation this year. To win from 11st 12lb topweight would still go down as one of the greatest ever weight carrying performance though. Any drying in the ground may help him to shoulder that weight a bit more but an honourable place again looks a more conceivable target than a win

GALIA DES LITEAUX

Represents the dan Skelton stable who know how to plot a handicap win. Her mark looks fairly exposed to me though. She won’t mind soft ground,, but I tend to think she likes things her own way up front and is unlikely to have a solo time here

LATENIGHTPASS

From the hunter chase sphere, Latenightpass is a previous winner of the Aintree Foxhunters. While he has won over 3ml 5fur over the Cheltenham Cross Country course, that event can often be falsely run and not give a true picture of stamina. I’ve long thought that about 3 miles on decent ground was his optimum and he gets neither here. Hope he gives Gina Andrews a nice spin round, but I think he’ll find the trip too far

CAPODANNO

Pulled up last year but looked to be travelling as well as anything until the final few fences. He definitely has some class and his fourth in the Ryanair Chase last time showed he needed further. But this distance is a huge leap, especially with the 11st 8lb on his back

ROI MAGE

A fine effort to be 7^th last year showed the fences held no terrors. Softer ground this time might stretch his stamina even more although he does cope with suh ground over shorter trip. Being aged 12 now he’s not a win contender but the sort to keep an eye on for any attractive Top 10 prices

BEST OF THE REST….

MAC TOTTIE has won over the course twice but over much shorter trips and stamina is a big concern. CHAMBARD also has winning course form from earlier this season on heavy ground, but that effort seems to have taken its toll since. At the ages of 11 and 12, they are both up against it.

AINT THAT A SHAME was well backed last year but pulled up. He posted his best effort last time but has been sold since to the swashbuckling amateur rider Mr David Maxwell. How much of a difference is there between him and last year’s rider, Rachel Blackmore. I’ll let you decide……

GALVIN has top class back form but a marked need for decent ground. It would be no surprise to see him a non-runner if the ground remains testing. If it does get better than he is an interesting outsider. His stablemate, DELTA WORK, was my fancy last year when unseating his rider before the race reached its closing stages. He is another who missed his prep race through abandonment. He was 3^rd in 2022 but is 11 now and despite being 3lb lower than then I’d worry that he may be too old now. THE GOFFER, also from the Elliott stable has both stamina and soft ground worries

****

VERDICT

This isn’t an easy race to decipher with the combination of softer ground, easier fences and a smaller field all to balance

It’s certainly more of a race to enjoy with more limited stakes if betting but given firms are often falling over themselves to give extra places there should be some value to be had with each way betting.

At the time of writing most firms are offering 6 places, but a few offer 7 places (4 is the standard for handicaps with 16 runners or more). On Friday night we could start to see even 8 places offered

It’s one of the few races where backing several each way isn’t such a bad thing as so much place money can come back

My shortlist for the win this year is largely built around those carrying less than 11 stone which is a barrier line for me on soft ground…and being aged under 10

MR INCREDIBLE (top of the list if ground is soft/heavy)

MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

PANDA BOY

LIMERICK LACE

Just missing out because of weight are CORACH RAMBLER and NOBLE YEATS who remain place contenders

Thanks for reading and best of luck with whatever you choose

Paul

( in the meantime, those who read my Topham Trophy blog will know I’m firmly cheering on Lounge Lizard on Friday. The dangers in my mind are Bill Baxter (price way too short though on him), Lifeinthepark (has often struggled to fulfil his potential, and a lively outsider in Grandads Cottage. Shakeumupharry did me proud for the blog during Cheltenham but I fear for him on this very long run in

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Posted by senormoodoir on April 11, 2024 in Uncategorized

Tags: Grand National, Horse Racing, horses, sport, tips

Aintree 2024 – Topham Trophy

04 Apr

Another big National Hunt festival is on the horizon next week with Aintree commencing on Thursday 11^th April for 3 days.

I will be doing my usual piece on the ‘piece de resistance’ – the Grand National after the final declarations are done on the 11^th.

It’s not the only big race of interest though and this extra blog post concentrates on Friday’s Topham Trophy where I’ve got an early ante post interest.

The Topham is also run over the Grand National course but over a shorter trip. It’s been a race that always interested me just as much as the big one itself.

Current ante post odds can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/topham-handicap-chase/winner.

Note that on Saturday 6th April, the 5 days declarations for Friday’s card will be done and odds will be revised as some runners are taken out. This post hopes to take advantage of prices now before that occurs.

Given it is April we normally expect the ground to be more spring-like for this meeting. However, with rainfall still uncommonly high, the ground is currently soft/heavy. With more rain forecast, we have to expect it may be soft going next week also.

At the top of the market, we see a few who performed well at the Cheltenham Festival – In Excelsis Deo, Crebilly, Shakemupharry, James Du Berlais, The Goffer. It’s noteworthy that the last 4 winners of the Topham all avoided Cheltenham. Cheltenham was also run on quite soft ground so I would have a little concern about how hard a race this group had – and if this race is an afterthought for them.

Last year’s winner Bill Baxter is also fighting for favouritism. Last year he’d won 3 of his previous 4 races coming into this. That win could have taken its toll a bit as he hasn’t shown the same form since. The upside is that his mark has dropped again so he comes here only a pound higher than last year. He’d have to be a contender given this race has had a few back-to-back winners before. He could just be a different horse here but as things stand, he’ll need 16 horses to drop out above him to get into this year’s race (maximum field size is 30 runners). He’s also better off with last year’s runner-up Fantastic Lady (she ran well given she would prefer a better surface but may not get it this time)

2022 winner Mac Tottie is also entered but he is also engaged in the Grand National and may not be a certain runner. He’s also on a much higher 11-pound mark than when he won this so will need all his proven skills jumping this course to be competitive again.

The likelihood of soft ground would also be a concern for Ben Pauling’s Your Darling. A talented but frustrating type, he has a great record of running fresh after a long break – as he will here. This is the highest mark he’s ever had to carry though.

Dan Skelton’s skills in preparing one for a big handicap were there for all to see at Cheltenham and his Sail Away also had the right look about him when entries came out. There was some early support for him, and I’d give him a great chance on good ground, but I fear the rain is against him. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him skip this race if it stayed soft and wait for the Ayr meeting a week later where he won last year. If the ground did dry up however, he’d be high up on my shortlist

And so, onto the one that really catches my eye – Henry Daly’s LOUNGE LIZARD. You wouldn’t touch a 7-year-old in the Grand National normally but in this race it’s no bad thing at all (Bill Baxter a case in point last season).

Like last year’s winner, he’s a proper chasing type who has simply taken time to grow into his frame and start to fulfil his potential (a type well suited to his trainer).

It was over these National fences back in the Becher Chase back in December where he first really hit my radar. There he seemed to enjoy his baptism over the big fences and had no trouble sharing the lead with a real course pro in Percussion. All went well until the Canal Turn where something happened (I think loose horse related) that caused him to drop from leading to 4^th and losing several lengths. He was still bang there until the home turn but the effort on heavy ground, combined with a half mile further trip, then took its toll. He wasn’t given a hard time from thereon but immediately went into my notebook with this race in mind – especially since he was carrying 6 pounds more than his official mark.

That race can’t have left too much of a mark as he reappeared to finish 2^nd in a warm Cheltenham handicap next time. That was over a furlong less than this race and he certainly wasn’t stopping at the finish. G A Law who beat him that day maybe weighted to confirm form, but he has to carry a massive weight here and certainly didn’t have a good prep when pulling up at the Cheltenham Festival)

The last four winners of this race all ran early in March but avoided Cheltenham. I was delighted when Lounge Lizard skipped to the Festival too and instead had a workmanlike win at Huntingdon on 3^rd March. I can’t imagine that the tight right-handed track was what he wanted there, and this more demanding left-handed course will suit so much better.

The narrow win did at least mean his mark wasn’t raised too high and he comes here off 136 – the same mark he effectively had to run off here in December.

In short, I think he had a great sighter of these fences earlier this season and this has probably been the plan for him ever since.

25/1 is available in a place still, but I’m also happy to support at 20/1.

He is number 40 currently so needs 10 to come out to ensure a run. I’ll be hopeful that a few of those will drop out on Saturday. There’s no cause for concern if ten don’t drop out come race day with ante post rules though – balloted out horses are entitled to a refund under general Ante Post rules

***UPDATE – Saturday 6th April. 5 day declarations are now in and with 16 horses being withdrawn. Lounge Lizard sits at number 24 and is guaranteed a run in the race. Last year’s winner, Bill Baxter, also now finds himself in a safe position at 28. Two of the early favourites, In Excelsis Deo and Crebilly ,were taken out of the race today. There will be one more remaining entry stage on Wednesday when the final declarations will be made.***

Recommendation

Back Lounge Lizard at 20/1 of better for 1pt ew

I’ll write more about the Grand National next week where the ground will have a major influence if it stays soft. I’d be looking at lower weights far more the worse the ground is. At this stage the one who sticks out as wanting all the rain and having the right weight would be Mr Incredible and so wouldn’t put anyone off a small each way double with the Topham selection as I think his price may drop a good bit the more it rains

Thanks for reading,

Until next week,

Paul

(For anyone looking for full stats on the Aintree meeting I’d advise you to check @ChrisGartner2 on Twitter/X who can supply a highly detailed document with some great information included. Some essential reading in there!)

1 Comment

Posted by senormoodoir on April 4, 2024 in Uncategorized

Tags: Aintree, Horse Racing, tips, Topham

thefinalfence

Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Day 1 and Day 2 thoughts

Aintree Grand National meeting 2025

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 4

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 3

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

Day 1 action:

Cheltenham 2025 – some early selections

Cheltenham 2025 – Trainer records in handicaps

Grand National 2024

Aintree 2024 – Topham Trophy

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