thefinalfence

Welcome back to my annual blog for jump racing’s premier fixture!

I started this site several years ago to accommodate the number of requests I used to get for my thoughts. It’s been a bit of a labour of love in that time and as I’ve usually taken the week off I’ve been able to update during the week.

This week I have other commitments though and will be unable to add daily posts.
Consequently, I’m putting everything on one post to cover the week this year. I’ll only mention the races where I have more interest at this stage. There will be slightly more emphasis on Tuesday and Wednesday since declarations are finalised for both at time of writing – we still to wait for final confirmations for the other two days.

The ground conditions are still slightly up in the air as I write. Good to Soft or Soft look likely for Tuesday at the moment – dependant on what both wind (to dry) and rain (to soften) hits the course in next 24 hours. Please bear in mind notes for what conditions will suit which horses most for those later in the week especially.

As usual also look for enhanced place terms being available later in the week. There can be some very attractive offers added the night before or on day of race

Onto the racing:

Tuesday.
The Champion Hurdle is the main race. I’ve been following the Festival since the mid 1970s and saw a ‘golden age’ of hurdlers then. Constitution Hill would easily stand tall into that elite category on what he has shown so far. I hope to see him cement his position as the best hurdler seen this century here. His short price reflects this though and so this can only b a race to watch and savour.

Races with more of a betting angle for me are:

130 Supreme Novices Hurdle
I might give a second chance to a horse who disappointed badly last time out and was subsequently lame if the price was high. Facile Vega is the hype horse at front of the market here and his price is certainly not attractive given his effort last time. He won at the Festival last year but the form hasn’t worked out and his last race was the first time another horse took him on in a race, It didn’t end well and I’d need far more than 2/1 or 5/2 to consider him here.
Marine Nationale looked an excellent prospect before Christmas but hasn’t raced since (by design from trainer). I’d prefer if he did have more match practice as he almost lost that last race by one poor jump.
It’s the perceived Mullins number two – Il Etait Temps – who interests me most here. He has all important course experience and has progresses this season. I dont think he was allowed to be ridden too effectively when beaten by Facile Vega before Christmas – but it was him who shone the next time when able to sit behind a stronger pace.
Another strong pace looks likely here and I can’t see him being far away here. At 5/1 or bigger he represent the value to me and with some firms offering 4 places that represents an ideal each way opportunity (providing money back if placed which is a struggle for me to see not happening)
The only downside might be if we get heavy rain and the ground gets really soft. That looks unlikely right now but if it does then Tahmuras might be the one to benefit most of the other runners

Recommendation – Il ETAIT TEMPS taking 5/1 or more each way with firms offering 4 or more places)

250 Ultima Hcap
This race has been kind to me over the years and always draws me in.
The Big Breakaway is my Grand National pick at this stage. I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from him at 33/1 currently as I think he’ll run well here. Stable jockey Brendan Powell wont want to lose the ride with that in mind but this is a trial for him after all and connections probably are leaving something to work on with a bigger prize in mind, The same applies to last years winner Corach Rambler (fav for Grand National currently and less value in my eyes)
It’s also important that low weights have traditionally prospered in this race so with soft in the description I’ll be focussing more on those carrying less than 11 stone.
Two horses stand out for me.
Oscar Elite was 3rd in this race last year off a 1lb lower mark. He had been placed at the Festival as well the year before and with a recent return to winning form he looks primed for another good run. I’m not surprised the stable jockey isn’t riding him for reasons stated above – but Harry Cobden is the deputy I hoped to se and gets on really well with this horse. He has a great chance for me with the small caveat again that really soft ground might be a slight negative
The low weight also makes last year’s 7th Fantastikas stand out at double figure odds. He was racing off a 10lb higher mark then having dipped in form a bit this season. Contrary to the first race though this one’s price does tempt me to give him another chance. There were signs of a return to form last time on ground that wouldn’t have suited. The rain has definitely helped this one and it’s very interesting to see connections have fitted first time cheekpieces.

Recommendations:
OSCAR ELITE and FANTASTIKAS each way with firms offering 6 places or more

530 National Hunt Chase
Another short priced favourite here in Gaillard du Mesnil. He has the best form for sure but with some strong stayers in thsi race his stamina should be properly tested
Mister Coffey has had this race as his aim since finishing 2nd at the Festival last year and the fact that connections booked top amateur Derek O’Connor so long before the race speaks volumes.
His stamina isnt proven but he looks for all the world to me that he needs a trip like this – he can just gallop without having a turn of foot thats needed over shorter.
The recent rain has been a godsend here. Connections have withdrawn him several times this season on unsuitable good ground. I think he’s been fine tuned for this race and is another I struggle to see finishing out of the frame

Recommendation
MISTER COFFEY each way – 10/1 or more ideally

*****

WEDNESDAY
Only one race here where I’ll be strongly involved at this stage…

130 Ballymore Novices Hurdle
We have another short priced Willie Mullins favourite here in Impaire Et Passe. He’s looked impressive but his price is more about hype and he hasn’t beaten horses of the calibre that others have yet. His stablemate Gaelic Warrior has a tendency to jump to the right which must be concerning here.
Then we have Mullins also fielding Champ Kiely. There is much less to knock him and I see him as the one who will add the pace to this race to make it a good test.
This should suit both Hermes Allen and Good Land and its the latter who is by far the most attractively priced runner in this race for me at 5/1 or better
I really cant pick any holes in his form this season and his proven stamina over a longer trip should see him right there at the finish. Another who I struggle to see finishing out of the frame at the very least

Recommendation
GOOD LAND ew 5/1 or better

*****

THURSDAY
Ground notes for all here added

130 Turners Novices Chase
Mighty Potter has looked very good this year but its a huge worry that his worst performance came at this venue last year. He needs to prove himself outside of Ireland and on this course. BANBRIDGE is proven and has to be my selection here BUT….soft ground is more of negative here. Good to Soft or better makes him a better bet

330 Stayers Hurdle
A small interest here on French raider HENRI LE FARCEUR as the price seems a bit big at 20/1 or more. His French form reads very well against fellow raider Gold Tweet who is half the price. Softer the ground the better here.

410 Magners Plate
DATSARIGHTGINO went straight into my notebook for this race after his January second here when beaten by a very well handicapped rival. I loved the way he devoured the hill – even if his jumping wasnt quite as efficient as the winner. It was a slight blow that he got a 4lb rise after a recent second at Kempton (a course that shouldnt suit him as much) but if he gets good to soft or better ground I still think he has a great chance

450 Mares Novices Hurdle
LOT OF JOY is my strongest fancy for Thursday currently. She first hit my radar after going close in the Irish Cesarewitch despite a really bad draw. I had her in mind for this years Ebor (premier handicap race on the flat) soon after that but once I saw she was going jumping I’ve been watching closely.
A last flight blunder probably robbed of a win first time out (beaten by a very useful type in any case) – and I think a longer trip counted against her next time. Back over 2 miles she showed what she could do next time with a confidence building prep race
I think she is at least a listed class performer and seems to go on all ground.
The key for me is she gets 5lb here from her main rivals Luccia and stable mate Ashroe Diamond

*****

FRIDAY

130 Triumph Hurdle
GALA MARCEAU has to be the value here. She might have had things go her way against stablemate Lossiemouth last time whwn the latter got badly hampered but I still like to way she ran to the line laving others trailing in her wake. The other stablemate Blood Destiny is harder to gauge but Gala Marceau is the only one of the three that offers a price where each way becomes attractive at 4/1 or bigger. She was very fizzy and pulled very hard when baten by Lossiemouth previously but settled far better last time. Hopefully Danny Mullins renews this partnership as he think he can get the best out of her

330 Gold Cup
The softer the ground the more this centrepiece of the meeting becomes a stamina test. The final hill in the Gold Cup has so often found out those who looked like winners before the home turn
Galopin Des Champs is just too short a price for me and there are three – all with proven stamina in a race that should be strongly run
NOBLE YEATS stamina assured here with his Grand National win. There was a definite WTF moment at Aintree this eason when he seemed to engage a turbo boost on the run in. I don’t think he was at all fully tuned up last time out and with his cheekpieces now reapplied they should all be fearful if he is within a couple of lenghts at the last
STATTLER also has proven stamina and festival winning form. The faster the pace the better here and he has to go close, A srong each way candidate
MINELLA INDO has won this before and is the most attractively priced here of the trio right now. His form can be in and out elsewhere but his Cheltenham Festical record now reads 1212 – enough said!
I’d be hopeful that some firms might offer 4 places for each way on this race later this week to make each way plays even more attractive

Thats my run down of the meeting complete.
Hopefully its useful to some and pinpoints a few winners

In summation, for those looking for each way multiples this week I’d be focussing most on these as things stand today:
IL ETAIT TEMPS
MISTER COFFEY
GOOD LAND
LOT OF JOY
GALA MARCEAU

Good luck to whatever you back and enjoy the week!

Paul

Sorry all but not enough time to do any lengthy posts on the National this year. Suffice to say I won’t be backing any of the higher weights over 11st 5lb as stats are heavily against them. That rules out some at the head of the betting market this year for me

Ground doesnt look likely to be too soft at time of writing. If the showers continue to hold off both Discorama and Dingo Dollar appeal as two bigger prices who have form in distance races like this and look overpriced.

If the rains do come it should favour others more. Eclair Surf in patricular could really benefit with such a stamina test but may get outpaced on good going. Santini also looks a nice price if there is soft in the going description (note he has beaten potential fav Delta Work both times they have met before and is better off at weights here as well). If Nick Schofield can get him into a nice rhythm over the early fences I can see him running a decebt race here.

Fortescue is also going the right way. Stamina not totally proven but he looks like he needs a trip. I can’t find his jockey having any previous experience over these fences which tempers enthusiam a little.

As always hope they all come back safe and well

Good luck to whatever you back

Paul

A good start for the blog on Tuesday picking out 3 winning bets and highlighting a double
I’m publishing this now in advance of Day 2 with Friday’s declarations now in

***

Day 3 – Thursday 17th March
Happy St Patricks Day!

130 Turners Novices Chase
A 4 runner race to kick this off isn’t the best advert for the meeting. It’s pretty bad to feel spoilt to get this many…a few days ago it looed like we may have just had a 2 runner match between the main principals.
I won’t be getting involved. Bob Olinger was the better hurdler but Galopin Des Champs looks to have a better jumping technique and would have marginal preference for me as I think he’s less likely to make errors

***

210 Pertemps Final
A 24 runner handicap with some firms offering 7 or even 8 places each way. You’ll need all of that in such a tricky heat to get any edge
Winter Fog and Alaphilippe have both the look of horses who have been teed up for this…but the market is aware of that too with some quite skinny prices for them both in such a competitive race
I’d be more interested in finding bigger prices who have a shot at these extra places and two that fit that bill for me are HONEST VIC and IF THE CAP FITS. Both have performed at a higher level in the past and their handicapped have dropped to give them a chance to rekindle their old sparks.
Honest Vic has run well at the Festival before and is back down to a mark of 141 that he has won off before. He was the subject of some encouraging reports from his trainer recently
If the Cap Fits has competed at much higher levels than this and is a former Grade 1 winner. His mark is at an all time low now that his form has taken a marked dip but there was more encouragement in his latest effort. With Ben Bromley also taking off 7lbs, I’m hoping he’ll find more improvement here with only 10 stone on his back for the first time in his career

***

250 Ryanair Chase
ALLAHO‘s win here last year was probably the most impressive performance of the week. He’s been trained only with this race in mind this time and if in anything like the same vein I can’t see him being beat
I’d be looking at the betting without market for more value here and think SAINT CALVADOS fits the bill. His last effort can easily be forgiven when he bled according to stewards report (went from going well to stopping very quickly and soon looked after by his jockey)
His second in this race previously (sandwiching Min and A Plus Tard) is I think the best piece of form outside the favourite and his previous well being was advertised in the King George over Christmas where stamina over 3 miles again found him out
You need something who won’t want to take on Allaho for the lead in this market and he fits the bill for me at a decent price

***

330 Stayers Hurdle
An odd race this year with all the main protagonists having something on their cv that could detract from their chances
Last year’s winner Flooring Porter is a quirky type and his Achilles heel could definitely be having to contend with a huge crowd. His improved form last year can in no small part be attributed to having empty venues to help his errantness.
My pick is CHAMP who has less downsides than many this season. His downside was the bigger fences but like previous winner Big Bucks I think he’s found his metier back over hurdles now.
He got run down up the hill by a resurgent Paisley Park last time but the suspicion is he might not have been fully tuned up for that prep run and I think he may reverse that form now.
His novice chase win here from Minella Indo and Allaho is quite probably the best individual piece of back form here.
LISNAGAR OSCAR was behind the selection last time but ran encouragingly there. He did the same before winning this race at a huge price in 2020. I could see him outrunning his odds again and would be an alternative each way play with firms who pay 4 places for those looking for an outsider

****

410 Plate Hcap Chase
I’ve only had one horse in mind for this for a while – THE GLANCING QUEEN. Stable form has already been advertised by Edwardstone’s win in the Arkle on Thursday.
I’ve already mentioned the race she ran i over Christmas in my Tuesday preview as being one to note. Both Oscar Elite and Fanstastikas ran well there…and hoping that L’Homme Presse does the same on Wednesday if his stamina holds out

****

450 Mares Novices Hurdle
22 runners and I can give chances to far too many of them to make it a race to have any strong opinion in.
I was very impressed by Love Envoi last time but with all her form on heavy ground, the quicker conditions have to be a worry
If I had to pick one it might be Grangee but highly likely I will just leave this race alone

***

530 Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys Hcap Chase
COME ON TEDDY ran very well at the Festival last season. I was a little worried who might be riding him here but connections have managed to get one of GB’s best amateur pilots on board to assuage those fears. His jumping has been a bit sketchy at times
He was also a runner in the Cheltenham race I mentioned earlier – the trip being far too short for him that day but at least it gave him a chance to get used to the fences here. The trip in this should play to his strengths far more

With a swing in the weights and a good jockey booking I think he can reverse recent form with Omar Maretti

****

Day 4 – Friday March 18th

Gold Cup Day!

130 Triumph Hurdle
The general perception when Pied Piper beat VAUBAN on their hurdling debuts was that the latter would improve more. Whilst both have won easily since it was the latter where the form had more substance and I think he will be hard to beat here.
The one who could possible upset the Irish for me is KNIGHT SALUTE. He looked to have real potential on the flat on his 2yo debut but then his form deteriorated badly. He’s been totally revived by Milton Harris as a juvenile hurdler and with his less well known connections has been overpriced in nearly all of his winning runs this season
Paddy Brennan is a master at riding this track and if he can get him involved at the final hurdle they should all be worried up the finishing hill

***

210 County Hurdle
Suprise Package absolutely bolted up in the Imperial Cup on Saturday and may be a popular pick to double up here before his mark is reassessed. The ground conditions won’t be as tacky though and there was a possibility that he benefitted from racing away from dead ground on the rail that day
I LIKE TO MOVE IT is more exposed than others at the front of the betting but I don’t think he’ll be far away. The horse who beat him narrowly in the Tote Gold Trophy ran well in the Champion Hurdle. There are also two course wins earlier in the season to recommend him
At much bigger odds, I’ll also keep an eye on Tax For Max if his price gets very big. He has looked a complete tearaway at times but has now been gelded. If that has the desired effect and he can channel his talents properly he could be a dangerous longshot

****

250 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle – the ‘Spud race’ affectionately
Hillcrest is one of the most exciting staying novices I have seen for a while. He’s a huge horse who has future Gold Cup winner written all over him. I’m slightly surprised he runs in this often attritional race though with his future i mind. I’d love to see him win but think ground conditions would have helped his cause more if softer. Indeed, if conditions were to get quicker it would be no shock to see connections reroute him to Aintree instead
STAG HORN is more appealing to me at double figure prices. It’s rare to see a good flat performer in this (Penhill a recent winner would be another to spring to mind)
For one so inexperienced over jumps he jumped very slickly last time and this longer trip should assist his limitless stamina seen on his flat exploits. Pontefract is a track you wouldn’t normally have linked to Cheltenham but his form from there gives me no fears about how he would cope with an uphill finish

****

330 Cheltenham Gold Cup
It’s hard for reigning champions to defend their title historically. As well as Minella Indo won that race he hasn’t backed it up since and you’d be taking a chance that he has suddenly had another Spring revival in form if backing him
I think this is firmly between A PLUS TARD (2nd last year) and GALVIN (NH Chase winner here last year). Both have great back form on the track and only a short head separated them when they met at Leopardstown over Christmas. Galvin won that and maybe slightly the stronger stayer of the two which just sways me in his direction…but I think there is precious little in it with possibility that A Plus Tard could just have been feeling his previously race a bit then. If there is a big discrepancy between them on prices on the day that might ultimately make my choice for me

****

410 Hunters Chase
No strong opinion here. I’m not sure Billaway was at his best when beaten by Winged Leader. While I can see that form being reversed the Irish favourite makes too many mistakes at his fences for me. BOB AND CO is similar in that he can make errors but he is a more appealing price and the ground here will suit him so much better than his pipe opener last time at Haydock. I haven’t always been a fan of his rider David Maxwell but have gradually warmed to his style and you certainly can’t knock his will to win!

***

450 Mares Chase
ELIMAY went down narrowly in this last year. With the victor then (Colreevy) now retired as a brood mare, this likeable little grey mare should get her chance to shine.
Her form had looked to deteriorate earlier in the season but she looked back to form last time and I’ll look no further than her here

****

530 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
If it wasn’t for running into Galopin Des Champs last year, LANGER DAN would have been a 9 length winner in this. After an obvious pipe opener last time he has somehow got into this race off only a 2lb higher mark
His chance is obvious with his trainer knowing exactly how to get one right on the day for such a likely plot
Connections will just be hoping there isn’t another unexposed Graded performer lurking in the Irish challenge

Thanks for reading and hope everyone has a successful week

Paul

Welcome back to my annual foray into trying to pinpoint winners at the Cheltenham Festival.
Unfortunately, this years blog will be shorter with just conclusions listed for each race.
There is a lot going on in the world right now that has taken my focus away from the Festival to some degree. We can only hope things improve for the people of Ukraine soon. Cheltenham will be a welcome distraction but it won’t quite be at the forefront of my mind this week as it normally would.
Statistics for races can be found on my posts from previous years. Once more I must point to gaultstats.com as an invaluable resource for that – please don’t forget to donate if using that excellent site.
Onto the races, where after weekend rain and some course watering, proper Good to Soft ground is expected on day one

****

Day 1 – Tuesday 15th March

Possibly the most interesting of the 4 days for me after seeing declarations……

130 Supreme Novices Hurdle
A very good race to open the card with five runners at the front of the betting who all look to be proper Grade 1 performers. Nothing has impressed me more than CONSTITUTION HILL though this season and he has to be my selection. It would have been nice to see some form on the course from him but we can say that for all of them except Kilcruit.
The two caveats that prevent me from going all in are his lack of form on a left hand track – and the fact that this race isn’t always won by ultimately the best horse ( Al Ferof and Champagne Fever winning similar high class renewals from horses who later proved much better).The hill shouldn’t prove any issues though considering the way he powered away up the stiff Sandown finish.

****

210 Arkle Trophy
I’m counting four front runners here and the likely strong pace should test the jumping of these novices. This should suit EDWARDSTONE to a tee with his main rivals all showing more frailties over the obstacles this season.
I’m seeing a lot of quotes about Alan King’s horse in previews along the lines of ‘he’ s the right favourite…but I want to take him on…’. That seems a bot of an oxymoron to me but I won’t be complaining if firms want to push him out and compete to be the biggest. With this in mind I fully expect him to go over 3/1 on race day and the bigger he gets the more I like him as a bet

Additional an each way double on selections from first two races seems a sensible play here. Especially with some firms offering extra places on the 210. Having both placed should see a very small profit…but both winning with combined odds of over 12/1 seems very fair value

***

250 Ultima Hcap Chase
Perennial challenger Vintage Clouds is back to defend his crown from last year and appears to be reaching form at the right time once more. At the age of 12 he will be doing well to do that though and certainly won’t have his way up front this year with Frodon in the field.
With the Irish not having a great record in this race historically – and lower weights usually doing better on the stats my main selection is KILTEALY BRIGGS.
This horse really seems to have flourished this season and has been aimed at this for some time (owned by the sponsors – and picked ahead of Threeunderthrufive who was swerved to avoid him)
Whilst most of his form has been at shorter, he is closely related to Grand National winner Ballabriggs and promises to be suited to this trip now he has matured. His run against much higher rated novices at Kempton was also every encouraging considering how badly he was in against them.
Not far behind in my mind and secondary choice would be FANTASTIKAS – a novice who already has good course form and will appreciate the distance
His run here over Christmas was in a race I wouldn’t be surprised is a pointer for others this week. Take note of how he (and Oscar Elite) run here with others in mind

***

330 Champion Hurdle
If my analysis is right so far it will be 3-0 to the home side by now…but expect the Irish fightback to start here with HONEYSUCKLE who is hard to oppose defending her crown. With her odds very prohibitive I’d put up EPATANTE (2020 winner) as the each way selection at around 16/1 – and as the best bet in betting without the favourite markets. She shouldn’t beat the favourite on last years form but I think she still holds the nod over the rest of them

***

410 Mares Hurdle
A much more competitive look to this one than in previous years. STORMY IRELAND has run in it without success a few times but she comes here now as far less of a tearaway than she has been in past.
I don’t think being taken on for the lead by Heaven Help Us will be as much of a stumbling block now and think she has the best form coming into this. I might have been a bit happier if regular pilot Danny Mullins was still aboard but assume stable jockey Paul Townend had first call instead. He’s not that bad a replacement though!
At bigger odds I also have to put up MARTELLO SKY as an each way bet where extra places are available. The trip was far too short for her in the novices race last year where she made up a huge amount of ground up the hill after being out with the washing.
She’s much improved this year in terms of her level of form and her jumping technique

****

450 Boodles Juvenile Hcap
All the pre race talk is about how well in Gaelic Warrior could be in this. He might well be 10lb or more better than his mark – built into that though he is very short price for such a race.
There will be others who are also better than their marks. Several other Irish challengers fit into that but I’m also fairly sure that SAINT SEGAL is a good bit better than his mark of 126 (123 if counting Chester Williams’ claim)
He still looked immature when cruising to the front at Chepstow inly to be outmuscled by Triumph hurdle bound Porticello. I’m hoping that experience won’t be lost on him and a good pace here will also suit

****

530 Ukraine Appeal National Hunt Chase
6 runners for the finale is the lowest turnout since the 19th century doesn’t help its cause as a betting medium. Vanillier has the best previous course form but hasn’t impressed me too much over the larger obstacles. I don’t have a firm enough view on his two main rival to give a selection here and won’t be betting

****

Day 2 – Wednesday 16th March
Looks like the quietest day for me in terms of opinions….

130 Ballymore Novices Hurdle
SIR GERHARD has course winning form and looks a class above on form. It’s just a perceived stamina issue over this trip that holds me back at the prices and I won’t be betting (not sure there is anything that will be wanting to force such a pace that makes stamina an issue mind…)
For each way purposes at longer odds I’ll go with stablemate WHATDEAWANT who should have been trained to the minute for this as he is owned by race sponsors

***

210 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
Bravemansgame looks the one to beat coming in but I am a little concerned he may be best on flatter courses. His old foe Ahoy Senor aso goes into unknown territory on this undulating course. L’HOMME PRESSE does have the course experience and is marginal selection – he is unproven over this trip though and that diminishes confidence
Note he won the race I mentioned earlier in Ultima preview so there may be knock on effect from efforts there

****

250 Coral Cup
Very difficult handicap and likelihood has to be an Irish raider will improve from what we have seen this season to prevail. I don’t know which one though…maybe Drop the Anchor at a push!
DANS LE VENT is too exposed I think to win but is so consistent in this grade I can easily see him reaching top 6/7 with those firms who pay those places. Expect him to be delivered late up the hill under regular pilot Isobel Williams – the two have had a fine partnership this season and he could well be creeping into the frame again at a big price

***

330 Queen Mother Champion Chase
If Energumene couldnt beat SHISHKIN at Ascot, I cant see how he will here. Shishkin is unbeaten at the festival and rightly an odds on favourite. I’ll be shocked if he gets beat

****

410 Cross Country Chase
Never a race I get too involved in. It would be great to see Tiger Roll win on his swansong. SHADY OPERATOR has always performed well in a Punchestown race which was invariably a key trial for this and would be my each way pick with firms offering 4 places

****

450 Grand Annual Hcap
Another tough handicap. SKY PIRATE is 4lb higher than when winning last year but the nature of this race suits him well with likely strong pace allowing him to creep in late. I don’t see him being far away again and is over a stone better off with Before Midnight who beat him here before Christmas. Another small stakes race though

****

530 Champion Bumper
We have two supposed superstars from Ireland here in Facile Vega and American Mike. I can’t tell you which is best and won’t be getting involved. Of the others I do like OUR JESTER as a horse going forward. He’d be the one I would be considering in each way multis on the day with firms paying 4 places

****

Good luck to all over the meeting with whatever you back. I’ll be back with picks for days 3 and 4 on Wednesday evening once all final declarations are in

Paul

After Covid forced the abandonment of last year’s Grand National it’s great to see National Hunt racing’s greatest spectacle back this weekend

As with previous years I’ve picked out the key stats which have helped to find the winner in the past and they can be seen in table form below – Age, Experience, Weight, Number of Runs etc all having a bearing

With the age factor it’s worth noting that while 8yos used to have a bit of a disadvantage there have now been 3 winners from that age group in recent years. It’s therefore worth bearing in mind that is less of a negative than it used to be

This could be to do with the fences getting easier – something that along with better ground would assist higher weighted horses.

Ground at the moment would appear to be Good to Soft at time of writing (Thursday afternoon) with watering being done to keep it at that kind of level. Soft ground looks highly unlikely this year

Onto this year’s field and here is the table with stats applied – and some extra comments for each runner

GRAND NATIONAL 2021		TOTAL PTS	WEIGHT PTS	STAMINA PTS	AGE PTS	Runs this season
Magic of Light	10st 13lbs	10	3	3	2	2	Excellent 66/1 2nd in this race 2019 – until then had looked doubtful stayer. Below form in her last race at Cheltenham Festival
Acapella Bourgeois	10st 12lbs	10	3	3	2	2	Front runner and 3rd behind Burrows Saint in 2019 Irish National
Potters Corner	10st 6lbs	10	3	3	2	2	Lots of solid stamina form in past but preparation this year has hardly been smooth and form level needs to pick up a lot
Cloth Cap	10st 5lbs	10	3	3	2	2	Scottish national performance in 2019 gives him the stamina nod here. Much improved this term with front running performances and officially a stone well in after his last win
Yala Enki	11st 3lbs	9	2	3	2	2	Fell at course last time. Gets no respite from handicapper for consistency – soft ground would suit
Ballyoptic	11st 1lb	9	2	3	2	2	Out of form this season and mark is high on what he has done. Has fallen twice over this course. 2nd in Scottish national 2018 being theonly  positive for him here
Takingrisks	10st 7lbs	9	3	3	1	2	Admirably tough 12yo. Winner of Scottish national in 2019 (Cloth cap 3rd). Highest ever mark here. Might need softer ground to exploit his stamina
Lord Du Mesnil	10st 6lbs	9	3	3	1	2	Lots of stamina but all best form at Haydock and in soft ground
Lake View Lad	11st	8	3	1	2	2	Brian Hughes gave him great ride to win at course earlier in year – but fences were removed by low sun then and they were on Mildmay course. Stamina to prove here
Burrows Saint	10st 13lbs	8	3	3	0	2	Irish national winner back in 2019 and obviously trained with this race in mind ever since. Not quite as experienced over fences as would be ideal and all form is on RH tracks. Age 8 isnt quite ideal but as a French bred that isnt so bad as they progress earlier
Talkischeap	10st 12lbs	8	3	3	2	0	Impressive winner of Whitbread/bet 365 Trophy in 2019 but yet to return to same level of form
Anibale Fly	10st 12lbs	8	3	3	2	0	5th and 4th here before off higher weight after good performances in Gold Cup. Form has dropped this season markedly
Kimberlite Candy	10st 10lb	8	3	3	2	0	One prep run not ideal. Has the back form to be considered but that was off much lower weights and not sure he is a 153 horse. May also need soft ground
Any Second Now	10st 9lbs	8	3	1	2	2	Ted Walsh often tries unconventional prep on shorter trip (Papillon/Seabass). Stamina is ?
Jett	10st 7lbs	8	3	1	2	2	Seems fully exposed. Main positive would be having the rider with best record over national fences on top
Minellacelebration	10st 5lbs	8	3	1	2	2	Has had wind surgery since last run. Unseated rider over course in December. Seems to be in grip of handicapper now with a 148 rating
Some Neck (1st reserve)	10st 1lbs	8	3	1	2	2	Cross Country specialist now
Alpha Des Obeaux	10st 9lbs	7	3	0	2	2	Form going downwards
Shattered Love	10st 7lbs	7	3	0	2	2	Not as good as he was and all best form is at 2,5 miles
Milan Native	10st 6lbs	7	3	1	1	2	Hard to fancy orecent form off this mark
Discorama	10st 6lbs	7	3	3	1	0	Surprising to see he is still only 8. Stamina proven but prep has been far from ideal this season
Vieux Lion Rouge	10st 5lbs	7	3	1	1	2	No horse has more experience on these fences but he has failed for stamina every time in this race. If it were shorter he would be a player. Top 10 finish must be very likely though
Cabaret Queen	10st 5lbs	7	3	0	2	2	Pulled up last time. Looks badly handicapped
Sub Lieutenant	10st 3lbs	7	3	1	1	2	In veteran stage now and all best form at much shorter trips
Double Shuffle	10st 2lbs	7	3	0	2	2	two runs over course don’t inspire
Blaklion	10st 2lbs	7	3	1	1	2	4th in 2017 when gfavourite (looked to fail through stamina). Not shown anything like same level of form in last few years
Secret Reprieve (2nd reserve)	10st 1lbs	7	3	3	-1	2	Welsh national winner but he remains very inexperienced and likely too young for this race
Definitly Red	11st 1lb	6	2	1	1	2	Fancied for this race in previous years but form is on the wane now at age of 12. Bets chances appear to have gone
Tout Est Permis	10st 12lbs	6	3	0	1	2	fell in last race – not ideal coming here. Stamina also a big ?
Mister Malarky	10st 12lbs	6	3	0	1	2	For horse who looks to have stamina it’s interesting to see he has never won beyong 3 miles which is negative
Balko Des Flos	10st 9lbs	6	3	-1	2	2	Form going downwards
Ok Corral	10st 8lbs	6	3	1	2	0	Fragile sort
Class Conti	10st 6lbs	6	3	-1	2	2	Stamina a big negative
Canelo	10st 4lbs	6	3	0	1	2	Held by Takingrisks on Doncaster form – and doesn’t have the proven stamina that one has for this test
Give Me A Copper	10st 4lbs	6	3	1	2	0	Pulled up last time and no recent form to recommend
Hogan’s Height	10st 3lbs	6	3	1	2	0	Has won over track but much shorter trip
Minella Times	10st 3lbs	5	3	-1	1	2	Rachael Blackmore’s mount – this will ensure a popular pick but will keep price low. Stamina has to be a doubt
Ami Desbois	10st 2lbs	5	3	0	2	0	Falls badly on two key stats
Chris’s Dream	11st 7lbs	4	0	0	2	2	Too many negative stats to consider
Bristol de Mai	11st 10lbs	3	0	1	2	0	Class horse but all best form comes at Haydock and in soft ground
The Long Mile	10st 4lbs	3	3	-1	-1	2	Stamina and age stats totally against him
Farclas	10st 3lbs	3	3	-1	-1	2	Previous Triumph Hurdle winner (like Tiger Roll)…but stamina and age stats all against him
GRAND NATIONAL 2021

This is how the points are given out:

Weight. ( W )
11 stone or less a big positive = 3pts
11st 1lb to 11st 6lb – less of chance but still not insurmountable (particularly on decent ground) = 2pts
Over 11st 6lbs = 0 pts (1 on good ground)
Stamina (S)
It may seem obvious but there was a train of thought once that 2.5 mile horses were ideal for this (largely stemming from Fred Rimell/Gay Trip victory). There is nothing to back this up nowadays.
A winner over more than 3 miles is necessary so we give 1pt for that
Not having won over at least 3 miles in hurdles or chases is such a big negative to me that it carries MINUS 1pt
Proven stamina in a competitive National like Handicap (3ml 4fur or more) =3pts
Age (and Chasing experience) (A)
9,10 or 11 is the desired age bracket to have here and gets 2pts.
Since the turn of century (and not counting Red Marauder’s heavy ground freak race) that covers all but one winner (Bindaree 8yo in 2002), and all but 5 winners since 1980.
Those 8yos that have prevailed did have chasing experience on their side so get 1 pt if they have had at least 10 runs over the big fences
Streetwise 12yos can also triumph occasionally but would need a previous run over the National fences to get 1pt
A 7yo hasn’t won since 1940 so that has to be a big negative and gets MINUS 1pt. There have been 30 to try in this millennium and the best was Big Fella Thanks with 6th place in 2009.
13 and 14yos don’t often run and their price would reflect that they are past their prime. No points for them but don’t be surprised with a top 10 finish as National veterans Swing Bill and Hello Bud have done in the last 3 years
(Vics Canvas since finished 3rd as 13yo and arguably an unlucky loser after atrocious mistake at Bechers first time round)
Runs This Season (R)
When you realise that none of the last 24 winners came into the race without having at least 3 runs it has to be important and so is given 2pts. A run since Christmas is also important so we’ll take off a point for any that haven’t
These I think are the key statistics for which to base a scoring system and I will apply to each horse below. A total score of 10 pts is possible for the ‘ideal stats fit’

We can see that 4 horses have the perfect fit from these rationale

CLOTH CAP

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS

POTTERS CORNER

MAGIC OF LIGHT

From this list I must admit I find it hard to fancy the last two named on recent form. Magic of Light ran very poorly at Cheltenham and I am reluctant to back mares when they start to show a drop in form. She didn’t seem to enjoy being taken on in the lead there and she will get a lot more of that in this field. If she could replicate her 2019 second place she has every chance but I think she will struggle

Likewise, Potters Corner really hasn’t looked the same horse this season who previously displayed buckets of stamina to win Welsh and Midlands Grand Nationals. Christian Williams is a greta trainer but this would be a tour de force to get this one back – and softer ground would have undoubtedly been much better for him

This leaves us with two who I do like far more.

CLOTH CAP’s chance is obvious but the market knows that too with only around 4/1 on offer currently. I fully expect that to get a bit bigger come Friday night/Saturday morning to tempt in more money. His Scottish National 3^rd in 2019 gives him the big stamina tick and his form this season has gone to a new level. His last win was so much of an improvement that if the handicapper had been able to adjust his weight he would be carrying a stone more here. Soft ground would be a negative for this one but the weather gods seem to be in his favour this year. Tom Scudamore has formed a great partnership with this horse this season and will never have a better chance to add to the Scudamore roll of honour in this race. His father Peter never managed to win but go back to 1959 and you will find grandfather Michael winning it on Oxo!

The negative (if there is one) is that he seems to like to front run and that means he’ll be right at the forefront of the traditional cavalry charge to the first fence. That’s when mistakes happen and I’ll be much happier when he has cleared a few as can see some early danger there. He has run in two similar first fence charge races without a problem (Hennessy Gold Cup/ladbroke Trophy and Scottish national) so fingers crossed he is streetwise to this

The last time I can remember a horse coming into this race so short and so well in was also a first fence victim – Double Thriller in 1999). Note that one drifted out to 7/1 on the day after being much shorter as the betting public considered him too short to bet

Fingers crossed he gets over the early obstacles and then gets into a nice rhythm up front – he’l be tough to beat if he does

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS is a much better price and also a front runner (hopefully these two don’t take each other on and cut each other’s throats). I was slightly surprised to find him coming out as a perfect fit but had forgotten his excellent 3^rd in 2019 Irish Grand National (behind Burrows saint). His defeat of Burrows Saint in February confirms his well being and he has the same mark here (so is also a few pounds well in). He is definitely an outsider to keep on side

Notes on all runners can be found on the table but three others of note to take out:

BURROWS SAINT (already mentioned) does have a lot of attributes needed but falls slightly short on age (as mentioned I think we can rule out that one – especially with early maturing French bred horses). His lack of chasing experience (only 9 runs) is a little more concerning – and with all his form on RH tracks we have another small seed of doubt

I have backed this one at bigger prices ante post and wouldn’t be surprised to see him win – he has looked such an obvious type since his Irish national win. However, on his form with Acapella Bourgeois on his last run there shouldn’t be the difference in price between them.

TAKINGRISKS would be a perfect fit if not for the fact he is now a 12yo and running off his highest ever mark. The 2019 Scottish National winner took his form to an even higher level last time and he certainly won’t be wanting for stamina. If anything he might have need slower ground to balance things out against some quicker types. Nicky Richards is not one to overrace his horses and he knows what is need to win this race.It may just be a step too far to win but I couldn’t put anyone off a small each ay bet on him with extra places being offered.

Lastly, there is no more experienced runner in this race over these fences than Vieux Lion Rouge. Stamina has just got in his way in the past but he’s won over the course twice over shorter trips. I can’t see him winning but if any firms offer Top 10 finish prices (and base them on outright odds) – he would be the one I would be most checking the price on

**

Good luck with whatever you back – and let’s hope all the runners and riders come back safe this year

Paul

(For those wanting to experience the National fences before, Friday’s Topham Trophy over a shorter trip is an equally exciting race to watch. My shortlist here is:

 Huntsman Son (will love good ground – should get a hold up ride).

 Ravenhill Road (talented but injury prone family that I think also need good ground…this one has a lot of class when everything falls right for him). This stable with its showjumping background should have him primed for these fences

Storm Control.  Ran a great race at Cheltenham with some bold jumping frontrunning. Shorter trip here is no negative and if he jumps the same up front he will be a sight to watch here. Kerry Lee wouldn’t be running him unless she though he was over his Cheltenham exertions

Day 3 saw some exceptional front running performance from Allaho and Flooring Porter. Prominent racers seemed to do pretty well all round and it’s an angle to keep in mind for the final day.

Rachael Blackmore is proving the star in the saddle at the Festival this week. Expect anything she rides on the final day to be well supported now

Thoughts for the final day of this year’s Festival:

1.20 Triumph Hurdle

Nothing has impressed me more in the juvenile division this year than ZANAHIYR’s success at Fairyhouse in November and I can’t oppose him here. He has had a break since Christmas (probably to avoid a hard race on deep ground) and if he is in the same form I’ll think he win this handsomely. The addition of a first-time tongue tie is something I wasn’t expecting and does plant one small question mark in my brain.

Alan King has had a great record in this race before and much of his quote of TRITONIC being his highest rated flat horse to go hurdling has been made. I find that a bit odd having seen his 7lb higher rated Scarlet Dragon hurdling before. His rating of 99 on the Flat makes him a decent type alright but I don’t think I’ve seen anything from him to make me think he will upset the favourite here

QUILIXIOS appeals more for second place but might have been suited more than the rest by a test on softer ground

SELECTION is ZANAHIYR though I think the value in his price has dried up now

***

1.55 County Hcap Hurdle

The Skelton team have a great record in this competitive race and field THIRD TIME LUCKI here. That record has undoubtedly forced his price down and I don’t see him in the same light as some previous Skelton winners who came into this on better handicap marks

I thought that Betfair Hurdle form would stand up better this week than it has and that now counts against FIFTY BALL (2^nd), EDWARDSTONE (3^rd), THYME WHITE (9^th) and MILKWOOD (11^th).

I think MILKWOOD will run better here as he may have needed that race after a break and should get the drier conditions he loves. However I do feel that a flat track may suit him better and the uphill finish is against him

GANAPATHI is dropped down considerably in trip and far too short for me at the front of the market (he does remian unexposed). Elsewhere from Ireland. YOU RAISED ME UP is progressive and breeding suggests the better ground should be right up his street. The handicapper hasn’t been kind with an 11lb hike from his latest Irish winning mark. Right at the bottom, CAPTAIN KANGAROO also appeals as the type who might benefit from better ground. He’ll have to brush up his jumping at this level but has a win over Wednesday’s Bumper second Klicruit if you go back on his CV.

In a very hard race, I will take a chance with a big outsider in LE PATRIOTE. At 9 years old he isn’t exactly under the radar but after a chasing spell this season he is back hurdling on a 5lb lower mark than when last in this sphere. That was when he was in last year’s Champion Hurdle and although finishing in the rear he didn’t run at all badly for a 100/1 shot

Good ground is most definitely a plus for this horse and he did win the competitive Swinton Hurdle off a 3lb higher mark in 2019. He also has winning form at this course. His trainer, Dr Newland is no fool in this sort of race and the 7lb claim from Cillin Leonard is no disadvantage in a race like this where every pound counts

RECOMMENDATION

A very tricky race but I’m happy to take a punt on LE PATRIOTE each way at 40/1+ with up to 7/8 places available if you shop around

***

2.30 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Usually this is an attritional race and the best one to slog it out takes the prize. There is no standout performer here this year reflected in the fact that the top 8 rated runners sit within 4lbs of each other on official ratings. Additionally all of them have been performing on softer surfaces than they will see here so it’s a bit of guesswork who will come out best.

STATTLER came out ahead of FAKIERA and VANILLIER in the main Irish trial but that was over a shorter trip and the way FAKIERA finished suggested a reversal of form wouldn’t be a shock. VANILLIER ran badly that day but did have an excuse and wouldn’t be out of this either at big odds.

ADRIMEL impressed me most of the home contingent when stepped up in trip at Warwick giving the distinct impression he was just doing enough – a good trait to have in this race. He has only raced on soft but over this longer trip the ground may come to his aid if he can handle it.

STREETS OF DOYEN has course winning form and although a few more pounds behind on ratings he is the one who will know will appreciate the faster going

CONCLUSION

This is a very open race and hard to rule out anything completely as we are largely in the dark as to who will prosper or fall on the Spring ground. No Bet

****

3.05 WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Blue Riband event would be so much easier to unravel if the ground were soft

I think the best performance in this race of recent years came from NATIVE RIVER back in 2018 and would be backing him again if by some miracle there was a deluge

On good ground he is likely to get outpaced but his presence at the front will still ensure a good pace with him and FRODON putting the others to the sword in the jumping department

FRODON would be a highly popular winner under regular rider Bryony Frost. He can operate on good ground but he is best when he can get all of his own way up front. He might not get that here with Native River in the race

AL BOUM PHOTO has won this race the last twice. Somehow he has never gripped the public imagination despite this feat. It could be that we just don’t see him on the racecourse enough but I also think having such a weird name doesn’t help his cause!

He again comes here with a strong chance but there is also a suspicion here he might want the ground to be a little bit softer

A PLUS TARD is going to be very popular and has good past form at the Festival at shorter trips. Rachael Blackmore being on board is what is keeping his price low now. Again I wonder here if he’s prefer a little bit more cut.

MINELLA INDO (rejected by Blackmore), unexposed ROYALE PAGAILLE and most definitely SANTINI are others whose best form has been on softer

I think on pure ability, CHAMP would come out top of the tree here. His preparation for this was unconventional in a two mile race but he did give Sceau Royal a scare there and that one was very unlucky not to go close in Wednesday’s Champion Chase. If that has taught him to jump at speed I think he is the horse to beat here but he has often been one who looks to lose concentration and can make mistakes. He can’t afford to do that here

Lastly, I have to mention LOSTINTRANSLATION. He was 3^rd here last year and is the horse I think who should be best suited by the ground. The trouble is his form since then has not come anywhere close to the same level. Tizzard runners haave just started to come form this week after a dismal year – but it takes a leap of faith to hope he can come back to his best here

CONCLUSION

If he can get a blemish free jumping round I think CHAMP can win….but that is a big if! FRODON’s chances would increase greatly if NATIVE RIVER wasn’t in the race so take note if the drying ground doesn make the latter a Non Runner. For a real long priced punt then LOSTINTRANSLATION may be worth a tickle in the hope he does come back to his best form

As much as I am looking forward to this race, it won’t be because I have a heavy financial interest in it

***

3.40 Foxhunters Chase

The last race being run this week that would normally be the domain of Amateur riders. I would, in previous editions,  normally just be looking at Jamie Codd, Derek O’ Connor, Patrick Mullins et al mounts here as would expect them to judge the pace best. With professionals now on board we can expect a more evenly run contest

BOB AND CO is the main UK hope but I cant erase his performance from my head at warwick last year. His owner/rider couldn’t control him then and he was pulled up. He hasn’t been beaten since (in small fields) but there is a quirk there for sure.

RED INDIAN has good form but has shown too much of a liking for Soft ground for me. Favourite BILLAWAY also has jumping issues which puts me off him

My pick is LATENIGHTPASS who surprised many when winning a very strongly run Warwick race last time from the front. Warwick is more of a speed course than here but it has some of the stiffest fences in the UK and if you can jump there you should be fine here.  This one also has course winning form and more importantly he is back on the ground that seems to suit him best

He is another who has shown wayward tendencies in the past but I didn’t see any of that last time. He’s a prominent racing type and that seems to be a positive in recent days

RECOMMENDATION

Back LATENIGHTPASS each way with 4 places offered by most firms – 25/1 looks a value price to me here

****

The last two races on the card aren’t really tempting me from a betting angle

4.15 Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase

A new race at the Festival and,  for me, quite a disappointing turnout. ELIMAY gave Allaho more of a race than anything managed to in the Ryanair today and her price tumbled on the back of his win. She is the standout contender and should win on form but a word of caution – she is quite a small mare and these fences will provide a test for her

Stablemate COLREEVY is the obvious danger but has to give weight away all round in a strange penalty structure for this race (why any ‘Championship’ race should have penalties baffles me)

4.50 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap

The ‘getting out ‘ race is far too difficult for me

GENTLEMAN DE MEE headsthe market and is totally unexposed. He could be thrown in but its impossible to tell on his form

LANGER DAN was very impressive at Sandown last weekend but that was over a shorter trip and on desperate ground.

There are several others at the head of the market who may be ahead of their marks and watching the betting to see where the money goes should be the best guide here

****

Thanks for reading the final post of the week and hope it’s been a successful one for all. I will be back again with the usual Grand National post the day before the race

Paul

Halfway through the Festival now and we began with two well backed winning favourites for Ireland on Day 2. Backers of Monkfish at 1/4 (has there been such a low SP at the Festival?) might have had a few nervous moments st some fences though.

Chacun Pour Soi couldn’t continue the trend when facing a battle with the ultra tough mare Put The Kettle On. Sceau Royal might well gone close there but for nearly being brought down as the race was hotting up.

It was lovely to see Tiger Roll come back to form to win his 5th race at the Festival – but also sad that the owner has sulked and taken him out of the Grand National because he didn’t get the weight he wanted.

***

Day 3 thoughts:

1.20 Marsh Novices Chase

Another small field to start and in ENVOI ALLEN we have another short priced favourite. He’s unbeaten and twice already a winner at the festival. I can’t really oppose him (only potential negative being a recent stable change) but at least with 8 runners there is an each way angle. CHATHAM STREET LAD was very impressive on the course in a top handicap before Christmas and is the one I favour most to follow the favourite home

ASTERION FORLONGE caused carnage in the opening race last year. I don’t think anyone will want to be racing too close to him if he is still there coming down the hill in case his errant ways take over again

***

1.55 Pertemps Network Final

Another big field handicap and this race is always competitive. There is just one horse I have had in mind for this race for some time in SOUTHFIELD HARVEST. He comes from a successful family who tend to reach a mark of around 150+ and he looks to have been nicely teed up for this race off a mark of 138.

His brother Southfield Theatre was narrowly beaten in this race carrying 11st 11lb and like him the selection promises to be a thorough stayer. Paul Nicholls has been suggesting that soft ground will suit but with all the family preferring Good to Soft or better I am not too concerned about any drying ground. First time cheekpieces have also been notably applied for a race I think has been his aim all season.

CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM‘s eye-catching trial race last time was there for all to see and hasn’t been missed by the books with only around 6/1 being available – too short for me to back although it wouldn’t be a shock if he won

Of the big outsiders,  KEEPER HILL is thoroughly exposed but he is consistent and the type to creep into the frame if extra places are available (he has performed well at a higher grade than this before)

RECOMMENDATION

Back SOUTHFIELD HARVEST each way taking 6 places or more if possible

(unfortunately Southfield Harvest became a Non Runner this evening – reported as lame)

For smaller stakes I would also take a little on KEEPER HILL at 33/1 or more each way with 6 places or more

****

2.30 Ryanair Chase

ALLAHO carries my Ante Post hopes here but I was having a minor heart attack yesterday morning when he drifted to an alarmingly high 25/1 on Exchanges. It seemed people were expecting him to be a non runner but the scare was unjustified and he is back sharing favouritism again

The problem for him though is he likes to race from the front. So do his two stablemates, MIN and MELON. MIN won this last year and is the choice of stable jockey Paul Townend – but he does have to bounce back from being Pulled Up in his last race.) Then we also have IMPERIAL AURA and DASHEL DRASHER who have shown their best from from the front. It would be lovely to know how the Mullins team in particularly plan to do this one as all 3 of theirs may sulk if they don’t get their way

In theory this should set it up for closers like MISTER FISHER and SAINT CALVADOS ( a reformed character now who also used to be a tearaway front runner)

Despite likely to get his ground, I still have a doubt that Mister Fisher is quite up to this level. I have no doubting that Saint Calvados is. He looked the best horse in the King George over Christmas until stamina took over on the longer 3 mile trip. He was just beaten by MIN in this race last year – but that one was able to control the race then in a way he might struggle to this time

DASHEL DRASHER would appear a big price for a horse who has already won a Grade 1 race this year. He is a very likeable front runner but all of his best form comes at Ascot which is a totally different type of course to this

FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES was just beaten by todays Champion Chase heroine Put The Kettle On in the Arkle last year. That form alone entitles him to plenty of respect and he seemed to be coming back to form last time. He is another who has run from the front before but most of his form comes at 2 miles so may have to be ridden with more restraint here

CONCLUSION

I will be cheering on ALLAHO but the way the race is likely to be won I think may suit SAINT CALVADOS most. The performance of stablemate Rouge Vif today does give me some concern about stable form which prevents me from putting him up as a recommendation. I would love to know the inside line on how this race will be run from the 3 Mullins runners and without that I could easily have 6 or 7 on my shortlist here

Additional – Saint Calvados declared a Non Runner this evening due the going)

***

3.05 Stayers Hurdle

I was confidently expecting PAISLEY PARK to win this race last year but his disappointing run was subsequently found to be because of an irregular heartbeat. He has bounced back this year without looking quite so imperious.

A bit softer ground might have helped him here as there is a tendency for him to get outpaced in his races before his stamina kicks in

FLOORING PORTER is a strong challenger from Ireland but his wayward tendencies are definitely not going to be helped by having no running rail to race against here. He should ensure that this race is run at a decent pace though

It’s last years shock winner that I like most here – LISNAGAR OSCAR after his taking reappearance at Haydock after a wind op

Drying ground doesn’t worry me here as one of his most taking performances came on such a surface at Haydock as a novice

VINNDICATION is an interesting runner now back over hurdles. He definitely has the class to be a force in this division but for me his best form as always been at Right handed tracks and I would have rated his chances far more if this was at his beloved Ascot ( same applies to his good ground loving stablemate  YOUNEVERCALL)

SIRE DU BERLAIS and THE STORYTELLER were 1-2 off high weights in the Pertemps last year. Both have yet to prove themselves at Grade 1 level over hurdles but at the latter has done that over fences. I would prefer him of the 2 under current ground conditions

FURY ROAD is another for the shortlist as he represents the strong Albert Bartlett form line from last season. That’s been advertised this year by Monkfish and Thyme Hill who would have been marginal favourite for hit but for an injury setback last week. He might have just needed it when beaten by BEACON EDGE last time over an inadequate trip

The last 3 mentioned all come from the same ‘Sneezy’ Foster stable but we can’t glean much from jockey bookings here as all our ridden by either retained or regulars who get on well with them

CONCLUSION

LISNAGAR OSCAR edges it for me marginally at the prices over THE STORYTELLER and FURY ROAD. All would appeal at odds of 10/1 or over with 4 places available (5 places even available here with Skybet and Bar One racing). I think the 2020/21 version of paisley park could be vulnerable in the quicker conditions here

*****

4.10 Paddy Power Plate

MISTER WHITAKER has solid form in past festivals at this trip (3^rd in this race last year) and was an early bet for me when odds were initially released at 25/1. That value has gone a bit now but I still cant see him being far away on ground that should suit. His Warwick reappearance after a long break looked a good pipe-opener for this where he wasn’t put in the race to win and ran on nicely at the end

The presence of THE SHUNTER in this race after having a multitude of entries has made a big change to . He has already won two very competitive hurdles this season and is equally adept over bigger fences. A 7lb claim from Jordan Gainford keeps him on a very attractive mark here

COOLE CODY is only 6lb higher than when winning the Paddy Power in November. He looed to need his last run and wouldn’t be out of this but I think a bit more juice in the ground would be needed for him

HAPPY DIVA was my selection in this race last year and ran a mighty race in 2^nd (Mister Whitaker 3^rd and only 1lb better off). I am surprised to see her in this race as I thought Friday’s Mares Chase was a better option but the drop in her mark to 145 may well have swayed the decision

She wasn’t in quite the same vein of form at the start of this year but she has been given a chance again here. Kerry Lee reported her gallops were in a bad state at the start of the year so I expect her to come on from here recent Warwick 3^rd

Recommendation

Heart sometimes rules head with one of my favourite horses in training but I think the handicapper has given HAPPY DIVA another great chance here. Back her and MISTER WHITAKER each way. I will be very surprised if one/both not out of the frame with their previous records on the course

****

4.15 Mares Novice Hurdle

There was some good Irish money for GLENS OF ANTRIM last week. Her form doesn’t really merit her price but connections have to be respected and she should be improving.

HOOK UP’s last piece of form against the boys reads very well now but the drying ground is an unknown for her

TELMESOMETHINGGIRL has been a shortener in the betting today to continue the fine form of Henry De Bromhead /Rachael Blackmore this week. The form of her last run was boosted by HEAVEN HELP ME today but I do feel that one improved a lot from that Leopardstown run

I’m happy to side with the home team here and THE GLANCING QUEEN not she is back against her own sex. The ground was desperate at Exeter last time and I can excuse that defeat. Her hurdling technique has been very slick and her performances at this course before have always suggested she has a touch of class

RECOMMENDATION

THE GLANCING QUEEN appeals most for me at the current odds. Her sire Jeremy has thrown up a few winners already this week and the Good ground should hold no fears. She has drifted out to 12/1+today and 4 places and her course winning experience that makes most appeal

****

5.30 Kim Muir Challenge Cup

Another race that is normally for Amateur riders that has been totally changed by having professionals this year

When the entries came out SHANTOU FLYER was my early pick but a 4lb rise for his Wincanton 2^nd in a fairly ordinary race was harsh to say the least. That could make the difference here despite him obviously liking this course from past effort s here.

I picked HOLD THE NOTE in another race last year but have found him an exasperating character since and I don’t think this trip is right for him over this course. I think he’ll be flagging up the hill

I’m going back to the Kerry lee stable and hope that Happy Diva’s run earlier will confirm that the stable are in form. STORM CONTROL didn’t stay a longer trip last time but won well over this course twice before. He idled badly in front on his last win but was value for far more than the winning distance. Expect him to be prominent throughout again.

Last year’s race form might also have some bearing with KILFILUM CROSS (2^nd), PLAN OF ATTACK (4^th) and DEISE ABA (5^th) reopposing. Bear in mind there are no Amateurs on board this year and the ground is better. Of those three I prefer PLAN OF ATTACK who sports first time blinker tomorrow and the not invaluable services of Rachael Blackmore this time

Recommendation

STORM CONTROL ew  (and maybe a double with Happy Diva earlier might be prudent in hope the stable are in the form I hope)

SHANTOU FLYER and PLAN OF ATTACK I can also see going close but as they are shorter prices provide marginally less value

****

Thanks for reading once more and good luck with whatever you back

Paul

It was officially Soft ground for the opening day but with drying conditions it soon became clear this description wasn’t accurate. Good to Soft or even possibly Good seemed more likely from race times and we could easily have purely Good ground on day 2 unless the Clark of the Course switches on his hosepipes

Appreciate It, Shishkin and Honeysuckle all were impressive favourites but Black Tears saved the books from a complete thumping by turning over the other hot favourite Concertista.

It was pleasing to see an old favourite Vintage Clouds finally win at the Festival – but bittersweet for me as I have put him up for the same race before and ignored him this time.

If anyone could fine the 80/1 Winner in the Boodles then you don’t need my help!

****

Onto Day 2:

1.20 Ballymore Novices Hurdle

Another much smaller field than usual for this race but the three main contenders are still here and are hard to split in the market . None of them have course experience to count as an advantage. With only 7 runners the each way possibilities here have been limited as only 2 places will be paid (except Betfair Sportsbook who offer an extra place

BOB OLINGER is favoured in the betting. He has only been beaten once over an inadequate trip and his price has dropped ever since top amateur Jamie Codd called him a ‘god given certainty’ in a recent preview. Since he tipped up outsider Labaik to win a couple of seasons ago, ‘the word of Codd’ has often had a big bearing on the market.

GAILLARD DU MESNIL represent the powerful Mullins stable and was impressive in his trial at Leopardstown. That was over a longer trip and against Stayers. He was edging favouritism for this race until Codd’s remarks came out.

BRAVEMANSGAME represents the home side and has drawn comparisons with the same stable’s mighty Denman. He also was beaten first time up over a shorter trip but has flourished since being stepped up in distance. He was very impressive in winning the Challow Hurdle and that form looks the best coming into this to me. A word of warning though – Challow winners have a terrible record in this race (Denman won that and was beaten in this too). I think that stat is having a bearing on his price here. Other than that I feel he should be slight favourite here.

BEAR GHYLLS also comes here unbeaten and adds a further bit of intrigue. He would be a shorter price if trained by a bigger stable but his form doesn’t quite stack up the same level yet

KESKONRISK steps up from the 2 mile division and could hav a touch of extra pace that could threaten if the pace is slow

CONCLUSION

I marginally favour Bravemansgame as he is the biggest price and I think they all have a similar chance. The better ground is a slight concern for all 3 at the head of the market and will largely keep this to being a race to watch rather than to bet on.

****

1.55 Brown Advisory  Novices Chase (formerly RSA Chase)

Only 6 runners here and MONKFISH has been so impressive in this division this year that I can’t see any other winner bar any mishaps happening in the race. He looks every inch a Gold Cup horse for next year. He’s already very short in the market though at around 2/5 and so not one to get rich by backing

****

2.30 Coral Cup

Competitive handicap time again here and two of them stand out for my shortlist here. There will be some competition with firms to offer extra places here. 4 places is the norm for 16+ runner handicaps but up to 7 places are available if you shop around

Top weight THOMAS DARBY might be up against it to concede weight all around on the face of it but he did do similar in a good handicap at Ascot last season. He also has that touch of class on past form (2^nd in Supreme Novices in past) and if the ground isn’t too soft I think he is a big contender here . (Its also interesting he is wearing first time cheekpieces here )

The Betfair Hurdle used to be a key guide to this race. It hasn’t quite been such a clue in recent years but GUARD YOUR DREAMS ran an extraordinary race in it this year. He was looking like last place was booked for him before the home turn but ran on really strongly in the closing stages to finish an eyecatching 6^th. He is unproven over this trip but it looked for all the world like he needed further there

Recommendations

Back THOMAS DARBY and GUARD YOUR DREAMS each way taking 6 or 7 places if at all possible

*****

3.05 Champion Chase

The two mile division has a standout performer in CHACUN POUR SOI this season. If this race was at Leopardstown he would be half of the price he is here – it’s the fact he has never raced over this course which keeps his price high. His form is also all on softer ground than he is now likely to meet here

It would be no shock to see him surmount these two obstacles and outclass them still here but at a shade of odds on he is too short for me

POLITOLOGUE won a possibly sub standard renewal last year but was impressive doing it. I think he can reverse Ascot form with FIRST FLOW ( not convinced by the latter’s course form here and may need deeper ground)

NUBE NEGRA hasn’t got home on this track in past seasons. He’s a better horse this season but I think a flat track will always suit him best

PUT THE KETTLE On has never run badly here and I couldn’t put you off each way on here. Each way options would also be there for SCEAU ROYAL and ROUGE VIF if they get their favoured good ground. The latter is particularly interesting at 28/1 if we can forget his two latest runs on soft ground. His previous win here on Good ground was deeply impressive – albeit giving weight to handicappers.

CONCLUSION

With a couple of doubts in my mind about the favourite I’d be looking at two bigger priced each way selections here in anticipation they might get the Good ground they both need. SCEAU ROYAL has gone close in this before without getting that ground and 16/1 is fair for him. ROUGE VIF is an even better 28/1 and would be my other.

The Betting without the Favourite market may also be one to look on tomorrow here with these two selections if the price on Chacun Pour Soi continues to drop

******

3.40 Cross Country Chase

‘Put the Kettle On’ comes to mind again here…but not the horse!

This isn’t really my race but for those wanting an interest SOME NECK has won over this course before and would be my idea of one for each way multiples with firms offering 4 places

****

4.15 Grand Annual Hcap Chase

This race is normally run on the final day and over the stiffer New Course. Normally they do very fast and the front runners come back. Over the Old Course they might just be able to stay away. The change in circumstances probably makes recent stats fairly irrelevant

Two against the field again for me here at decent prices

Joseph O’Brien holds a strong hand here with EMBITTERED and ENTOUCAS at the front of the betting . Both are novices however and plenty short enough in a race that is likely to test their jumping experience to the full. My eye is drawn more to last years 3^rd US AND THEM. He hasn’t shown that much this season but I suspect Spring festivals have always been the plan with him (also 2^nd in Arkle in 2019). I like that JJ Slevin has kept the ride on him.

ON THE SLOPES was a progressive novice last season but disappointed at the start of this season when not getting home as well as he did last season. He has had Wind Surgery since and then a pipe opener in a flat race at Kempton. He likes to race prominently so should be suited to the different conditions this year. The addition of a tongue tie is a further boon in helping him to get back to the level he was promising at the end of last season

DUC DES GENIEVRES also is worth a mention at big odds. He comfortably beat US AND THEM here in the 2019 Arkle but hasn’t backed up that form too often since. He showed here earlier in the season that he still has ability though and it’s interesting that his usual work rider Lorcan Williams gets the leg-up today. Given some comments from the trainer that he gets on really well with him I wouldn’t be taking the riding arrangements as a negative here (and a 3lb riding allowance if also welcome

Recommendations

Back US AND THEM and ON THE SLOPES each way – again looking for firms offering extra places. There has been some money for the latter already this evening and earlier shows of 25/1 seem to have now disappeared

****

4.50 Champion Bumper

KILCRUIT and SIR GERHARD have dominated the market for this race for some time. Both have been massively impressive this season and its not surprising they are both trading at short odds.

Both are trained by Willie Mullins but he only inherited SIR GERHARD recently when he was removed from the Gordon Elliott stable. That probably isn’t ideal for his preparation here.

THREE STRIPE LIFE was Sir Gerhard’s stablemate but he didn’t have to move yards. You couldn’t knock the way he won on his only start and I don’t get the impression he was rated that far behind his erstwhile stablemate. At the prices I think the value lies with him – and with some firms offering 4 places I think connections will be very disappointed if he doesn’t collect some place money at least

RECOMMENDATION

THREE STRIPE LIFE each way with 4 places

******

That’s day 2 thoughts concluded – I’ll be back again tomorrow evening with day 3’s picks

Thanks for reading once more – and good luck

Paul

Welcome back all to my blog for another stab at this year’s Cheltenham Festival!

National Hunt Racing has been through a turbulent time of late but hopefully this year’s meeting will help to mend a slightly tarnished reputation

Covid will again be having an impact this year. In particular field sizes are going to be noticeable diminished in some races. With owners not able to attend the meeting there is going be a lack of ‘social’ runners whereby being able to attend your horse in the paddock was an attraction to run for many in the past. This is likely to be reflected in a number of very short priced favourites…and many may well win. It’s not really my style to put up very short prices but will still endeavour to pick out some value where it exists

I’ve covered some notable statistics to pinpoint winners in past years posts.  For a thorough look at these I can once more strongly recommend  www.gaultstats.com for a far more comprehensive job. There is a lot to digest here but careful study can reap rewards – but do remember to contribute to it if you do

Again this year’s blogs will be kept quite concise due to time limitations. Comparison of odds and place terms can always be found at www.oddschecker.com.  Extra places being offered by some firms will be seen here. There can be some very generous offers to take advantage of..but with field sizes reduced these may be harder to find this year

The state of the ground is again going to be vital in making selections. For most of this century, Good to Soft or Good ground was fairly standard to start the week. In the last 2/3 years it has been wetter and we have started on Soft. The lead up this year hasn’t been quite as wet and we were starting to look like some watering of the course was necessary to obtain a safe Good to Soft start on Day 1. However,  with 10mm of rain falling on Sunday night that may not now happen. Ground conditions will be updated throughout the week here: https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

As I write it is Soft (Good to Soft in places). With some drying conditions to come I am working on Good to Soft as the likely starting point (with maybe Good ground being possible in places if no further rain and no watering)

********************************************************

Onto the action for Day 1:

1.20 Skybet Supreme Novice Hurdle

An early taste of things to come with field size.  8 runners are declared – the smallest field I’ve seen in 40 years+ of watching Festival openers

APPRECIATE IT is a justified Irish trained favourite having won all of his starts this year. He holds both BALLYADAM and BLUE LORD on that form. Of the principals, he is the only horse to have proven himself on the course having finished second in last year’s Bumper. He was beaten for a turn of foot that day and if this were a slowly run race that could be an Achilles heel again. However he won’t need to make his own pace here with guaranteed trailblazer FOR PLEASURE in the field. The presence of this outsider is a big help to him I feel. All of Appreciate It’s form is on soft ground so Good to Soft or better could count against him…but we can say that for others as well. Some feel  that BALLYADAM’s chances could be improved by better ground. Without any actual evidence in the form book to prove that though, I would be able to back him ( a recent stable move from Elliott stable also a potential negative)

METIER’s form is also all on Soft/Heavy ground. As impressive as he has been on that going he is also passed over as I’m still unconvinced by the level he has actually been beating.

The danger for me – and each way pick (whilst there are 8 runners and 3 places are paid – it would revert to 2 if we went down to 7) is SOARING GLORY. On the face of it his Betfair Hurdle win off a mark of 133 would still give him something to prove on ratings. That was an exceptionally well run race though (For Pleasure there again to force the pace) and he was impressive in beating some far more experienced types. There are similarities with the same stable Get Me Out of Here who won the same race off 135 before finishing a very close second in this race (in an arguably stronger renewal as well). With better ground looking to be a plus for him he rates the potential value here

Previously mentioned FOR PLEASURE remains a key horse in this race. He was given too much rope in the lead when winning here earlier in the season. If you wanted a wild outsider, you would be hoping the rest forget about him again. I can’t see that happening here but his presence should ensure a well run race

Conclusion

APPRECIATE IT rates as much the likeliest winner but at odds marginally above Evens, I’d rather be taking a chance on SOARING GLORY each way at around 8/1 (as long as there are 8 runners and 3 places paid)

********

1.55 Arkle Trophy

Only 6 runners here and the shine was taken off this a bit when potential second fav Energumene was ruled out last week. He and ALLMANKIND would have been vyijng for the lead.  That scenario could have been perfect for favourite SHISHKIN to then come and pick them off

Shishkin was about Evens before that withdrawal but is now half that price at 1/2. He will be hard to beat but with ALLMANKIND now having much less competition up front it does add a tactical issue that Shishkin’s rider Nico de Boinville probably could have done without.

It’s quite likely the other runners will be ridden from behind to try and benefit from errors. CAPTAIN GUINNESS would be my pick to come out best of these though I think second place is the best he could get here

Conclusion

SHISHKIN should win but I cant back him at prohibitive odds. Expect ALLMANKIND to be testing them all from some way out and if he can get away from thm and lead others into mistakes a shock is possible. This race is on the Old Course which will help him to last home better up the hill

******

2.30 Ultima Handicap Chase

As mentioned in previous years, I tend to gravitate towards the lower weights in this race.

The counts against the admirable Scottish trained challenger AYE RIGHT who carries 11st 8lbs. I still think he can go close as he done in two similarly strong handicap races this season. Those efforts have seen his mark creep up 4lbs but the booking of Richard Johnson is a plus.

Weight also says me against MILAN NATIVE a winner at the Festival last year off an 8lb lower mark. Additionally, Irish trained runners have a terrible record in this race

HAPPYGOLUCKY starts favourite and is progressive but I’m not sure if his overall form and a mark of 147 entitles him to be quite as short as he is. I think the memories of Imperial Aura’s win at the Festival last year when being above his mark may be shortening this one’s odds to some degree

I’ve put up VINTAGE CLOUDS in this race before and he has performed well in it but he appears to be on a downward curve now

Of the lower weights this year it is ONE FOR THE TEAM who stands out this year. Nick Williams has won this race with a novice chaser before in Coo Star Sivola and the booking of Tom Scudamore is a plus.

The negative is that this horse hasn’t run on the course before but much his best form last season came when the ground improved in Spring (his family all were better on better ground). I’m happy to ignore his last run at Doncaster when the ground was far too soft for him. Earlier form makes his mark of 140 potentially very workable here

CONCLUSION

ONE FOR THE TEAM is top of my shortlist here but AYE RIGHT should be hard to keep out of frame. Extra places are quite likely to be offered in this race for each way value hunters

*******

3.05 Champion Hurdle

Thankfully small fields haven’t affected the big race of the day where we have a cracking renewal.

I can make a case for  5 or 6 in this field which in itself makes me think it’s not one to go into with a gung-ho attitude to betting

HONEYSUCKLE is a justified favourite. She is unbeaten and was never better than in her last 10 length defeat of ABACADABRAS ( should expect improvement to come from this one ) and SHARJAH.

Stamina is her strong suit and she’ll be one of several pace angles here. GOSHEN, ASPIRE TOWER, SILVER STREAK and NOT SO SLEEPY have also all shown best form from racing at the front.

A strong pace seems guaranteed and this scenario might often suit hold up types (EPATANTE, ABACADABRAS and SHARJAH). That happens when the front runners can’t keep up the gallop and are picked off but such is the strength of those prominent racers that I think they could get away too much

GOSHEN certainly didn’t falter after a duel with Allmankind up front in last year’s Triumph Hurdle before a really unlucky last hurdle mishap robbed him of victory. His season started poorly but he seemed to be back to his best last time. I just have a long held view that 5yos are at a disadvantage in this race that sways me against him

Of the holdup types, I prefer ABACADABRAS but would have preferred to see sidelined Davy Russell on board. Last year’s winner EPATANTE had excuses with a back issue last time when beaten by SILVER STREAK and I have too many doubts about her in my head after that performance

It is the victor in that race, the likeable grey SILVER STREAK who appeals as best value to me at current odds of around 14/1. I did put him up for this race last year but the soft ground turned all against him. However, all of his performances this season point to an individual who has improved by some degree. It might be strange to say that for an 8 year old but it’s not that long since another grey Rooster Booster improved drastically at the age of 9 to demolish his rivals in this race

I’m not expecting that kind of performance here but as Evan Williams charge is versatile and doesn’t have to lead, I think he can sit just behind the pace here and the race will be run to suit him. Again this selection is reliant on the forecast being right and the ground is Good to Soft or better

Finally, its really hard to ignore the value being given on this race by William Hill who offer 1/5^th odds for 5 places each way. Standard would be 3 places for 10 runners. It’s impossible not to get value whatever you back on these terms (even getting 4 places makes a massive difference to each way bets). To have no margin for themselves they would need to have 500% on the place odds from their book. At cuurent odds I make them 353%. They are massively underround here and the advantage is all on the puter side

RECOMMENDATION

SILVER STREAK 12/1 EW (with Wiilliam Hill offering 1/5 odds 12345)

********

3.40 The Mares Hurdle

Plenty of past Festival form to work here

ROKSANA won this race two years ago and was 4^th last year in a much stronger renewal

CONCERTISTA won the Mares Novice Hurdle very impressively here last season  from DOLCITA (run over half a mile shorter trip). She had been second in same race the year before with BLACK TEARS and INDEFATIGABLE  just behind in 4^th and 5^th

DAME DE COMPAGNIE beat BLACK TEARS in last years Coral Cup but is 4lb worse off, while INDEFATIGABLE won the Martin Pipe Hurdle

In short we have many runners here with proven course form.

Much will depend on how this race is run. CONCERTISTA seems more about speed and arguable better at a shorter trip ( I did see her outstayed by Black Tears at Leopardstown last year but has undoubtedly improved since).

ROKSANA now may prefer 3 miles so she will need a strong pace for her stamina to come to the fore.

I’m not sure if there is a strong front runner in this field so am swayed towards the chances of CONCERTISTA  because of that but think she is too short a price at a current max of 11/8

CONCLUSIONS

Not really a betting race for me. I have backed BLACK TEARS each way but at bigger prices than that available now as think she has the same chance as Dame de Compagnie. I can see BetVictor offer 4 places here so that would be the pace to head for each way bettors at the moment

******

4.15 Boodles Juvenile Hcap

Always a tricky race. Having the best Flat rating used to help but being French bred then took over as the main stat

SAINT SAM appeared to show improved form last time when having his own way up front (BUSSELTON  4lb better off for 4 length beating when ridden a bit quieter than his previous run ). He won’t get that here with the free rolling/slick jumping CABOT CLIFFS in the field. The two could well conspire to each others downfall

SAGE ADVICE appeals as the type who could improve now he is back on better ground and is well in with Cabot Cliffs on earlier Warwick form. His jumping looked to need some improvement there and that would worry me in a well run race here. watch out for any market move on him from his shrewd stable

HOUX GRIS has been well touted for this race but if you fancy him you also have to fancy HOMME PUBLIC at bigger odds as they are so closely linked on French form. It is just who trains them that dictates the price disparity here…but the Greenall stable in being underrated with the odds

CONCLUSION

HOMME PUBLIC would have been a recommendation and was chalked up at 33/1 by some firms yesterday. Unfortunately that didn’t last and at current odds of 14/1 the value has dried up. BUSSELTON may be able to reverse Leopardstown placings with SAINT SAM with the way this race is run. Only small interests for me in this race but with some firms offering 6 places there is some extra value to be had on the each way options

*******

4.50 National Hunt Chase

With no Amateur riders this year this is the first race of 3 this week that will have a completely different complexion and we may be able to ignore stats to some degree.

GALVIN has been touted for some time as a long term plot – but that was when he was trained by Gordon Elliott and was going to have Davy Russell on board. His stamina has to be taken on trust but the change in his stable alone could see him drift in the market. I won’t be a backer

NEXT DESTINATION arguably has the best form and is now rightly becoming favourite for the race. He has been difficult to train in recent years and I’m not sure any drying of the ground will be in his favour

REMASTERED won a substandard Reynoldstown Chase this year but impressed with both his jumping and stamina there. Again he may be best sited by softer ground though

ESCARIA TEN is also largely having soft ground form but appeals as the type who could improve plenty for this extended trip

I don’t understand why LORD ROYAL is a single figure price at all in this race on what he has done this season

CONCLUSION

No strong view here but I’m marginally preferring ESCARIA TEN. His owners sponsor the Ultima Chase earlier in day and they could have gone there. It’s notable that they have gone for the race that they think suits him

*****

The blog will return on Tuesday evening to look further at Wednesday’s card

In the meantime, thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you end up backing

Paul

An ‘up and down’ week for the blog so far.  A great run from Happy Diva nearly sealed the day on Thursday but with one winner and some big priced places it wasn’t so bad

The performance of Paisley Park was the shock of the day. If anyone managed to find 50/1 winner Lisnagar Oscar in that race I’ll happily raise my hat to them

There are a few in form stables appearing…and a few whose form isn’t quite what I’d want to see. I’ll touch on some of those below

---

Thoughts for the final day of this year’s Festival:

 

1.30 Triumph Hurdle

The championship hurdling race for 4yo ‘juveniles’ kicks off proceedings and this years renewal looks sure to be run at a strong gallop

Allmankind, Aspire Tower, Goshen and Solo have all won trial races from the front and there is every chance they might kill each other’s chances off here if racing too hard.

Allmankind shouldn’t be winning in the style he has done given he races so freely from the front but somehow he is finding extra reserves each time. There is something of a freak about this horse and we still can’t really tell how good he is. It’s hard to see any of the others being able to lead him here as his hurdling is very slick. He also has winning course form on his side.

Aspire Tower’s preparation took a dent when falling last time out at Leopardstown. He was being seriously challenged by Cerberus at the time (that one held by Allmankind on Chepstow form). Before then he had looked clearly best of the Irish challenge.

That fall should have given the race to Cerberus but he then seemed to stop himself when being in front too soon and A Wave Of the Sea was able to catch him on the run in. Whilst the latter may appreciate the strongly run race and uphill finish here it looked more of a case of Cerberus losing the race to me.

Cerberus might have an outside chance in that regard but we have to worry about him in a soft ground uphill finish now

Goshen is another who has looked very classy with some wide margin wins from the front. He has been taken on and doesn’t seem to mind that – so I can envisage him being happy to sit behind the pace. The big concern is that all his wins have been on right hand tracks and he has shown a tendency to jump to the right. We have already seen with Asterion Forlonges this week how such a tendency can be a huge detriment here. Goshen’s jumping isn’t quite as slick as some as the others but he undoubtedly has a big engine

Solo is narrow favourite after bursting onto the scene with an impressive Kempton win last month ( race that has often thrown up Triumph winners)

The handicapper seemed to think he was the next coming when giving him an astonishing  mark of 157 after that. I have to question what he beat though with a clutch of low 120 rated horses in the field battling for third place.  He could win but is certainly not one for me at current odds

There are some quirky but very talented types here and the impact of the huge crowd here is also worth considering.

I’m not envisaging this as a confident betting heat and am therefore reluctant to make a recommendation

If this were a a right handed track I am sure Goshen would be a clear favourite. On this track, I give a marginal edge to Allmankind but it’s worth remembering the Triumph is run over a furlong more than his course win here.

Recommendation in these circumstances in NO BET

---

2.10 County Hcap Hurdle

Another competitive handicap hurdle.

We can assume that Mohaayed has been trained for this race. He has raced in it for the past 3 seasons and won it in 2018 off a mark of 139. He tried again last year but was only seventh from a much higher 153 mark and carrying top weight. That was a decent enough performance but he now comes here having dropped back down to 142. We should note that he has also had wind surgery since his last run so whether he retains the same ability is questionable

The JP MacManus/Barry Geraghty combo have already had a great week and here they team up with the highly unexposed Saint Roi.

This one has been well backed today and is down to around 6/1. It’s impossible to know if his mark of 137 is fair or not on what we have seen. His comparative lack of experience for a race like this is a negative and the price drop could be more about the jockey

In the same colours, Ciel De Neige is a much more solid proposition. He was placed here last year and narrowly beaten in the valuable Tote Gold Trophy. The softer ground here will suit him more than Sir Valentine who finished just behind. Off only a 4lb higher mark he has to go to the top of my shortlist

Back in 8^th at Newbury was Stolen Silver who had no chance turning in but picked up very strongly in the closing stages.

The softer ground and uphill finish will be massively in this ones favour – as long as there is a decent gallop in this race. We cant guarantee there will be a good pace here but I doubt many will be finishing as strongly as this one up the hill.

It should also be noted that connections purposely skipped the Supreme Novices earlier this week to run this horse in this event

Aramon is also high up in the betting for Team Mullins. He has strong form in graded company but having seen him in the flesh he doesnt appeal as the type to be carrying a huge weight so I’m passing him over here

Recommendations

Relying on what looks strong form last time (and two horse who have already proven themselves on this course)

CIEL DE NEIGE and STOLEN SILVER both Each Way (again look for best price with extra places)

---

2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle (or to give it its affectionate name – the ‘Spud’ race)

A race that has thrown up a mixture of top class winners and some shock ones who have never reached the same heights again

Over 3 miles it can be a big test for a novice and sometimes class can be outweighed by the combination of experience/bottomless stamina

If the ground is very soft then the one who ideally fits the latter scenario is Ramses de Teillee. He was a good second in the Welsh National last year and has found great success back over the smaller obstacles this year.

He completely outstayed his rivals last time and if this race does turn into a war of attrition you would want him on your side

Monkfish looks the main contender from team Mullins and although he has yet to win over this trip look another whose forte will be stamina. The stable also field a similar type in Aione at bigger odds

Harry Senior in contrast looked to be winning over his correct trip here last time and I am a bit surprised to see him being upped to 3 miles – I am not sure he needs that at this stage of his carrer. Tizzard stable form this week is also a slight concern

The class angle for me comes from Thyme Hill and Latest Exhibition.

Thyme Hil was 3^rd in the very hot Bumper at last years festival. He is unbeaten over hurdles this season and is the sort who will always do just enough to win his races. The trip is also new to him and whether it might stretch a bit too far is a concern – as is Philip Hobbs stable form this week. Both Defi du Seuil and Sporting John were way below expected levels so I have concerns in that regard.

This leaves Latest Exhibition as my main selection. He has mixed it with some very good types this season but has always looked like he needs a trip. His Leopardstown win last time (Cobblers Way held) is the best Irish form coming into this race. The race wasn’t run to suit him but it was stamina that got him home ultimately

This would be one of the most popular winners of the week for Ireland if Paul Nolan’s career were to get back into the spotlight with his stable star. I expect him to be well backed and to be favourite for this race come post time

The presence of quirky front runner The Cashel Man in this race should also insure there are no prisoners taken in this years renewal

Recommendation

LATEST EXHIBITION

---

3.30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup

The centrepiece race of the meeting has Al Boum Photo returning to the scene of his triumph last year

As in the previous year, the presence of Native River in that race ensured a true gallop throughout and Al Boum Photo was able to pick them all off in a well run race

Al Boum Photo has had a quiet but smooth preparation again and he is going to take some beating. The recent record of winners defending their crown here is far from great though

There is no Native River this year and so the question of pace arises. With the possible exception of outsider Elegant Escape there would seem to be only one confirmed front runner in the race – Bristol de Mai.

What this horse does and what pace he sets will have plenty of bearing on the outcome

Bristol de Mai has run well enough here before but all of his best form has come on soft ground at Haydock. He had to give second best there earlier in the season to Lostintranslation – a performance which saw the latter verge on favourite for this race soon after.

That idea soon became less attractive after a poor effort in the King George Chase behind Clan Des Obeaux. He was beaten a long way out and his jumping wasn’t anywhere as impressive as normal

The Tizzard camp seem happy again with him now but they are another stable who don’t seem to be firing on all cylinders this week. With this and a less than perfect preparation I’ll have to pass on their main contender here.

Clan Des Obeaux was imperious in that King George – as he was the season before. If this race was run at Kempton he would be the favourite but for all the bullishness that has come from the Paul Nicholls camp I can’t pick him here. He may turn up her fresher than last year but he has never looked as if the uphill finish here is his cup of tea

Last years novice brigade bring two more strong contenders to the fray in Delta Work and Santini.

Delta Work undoubtedly has the strongest Irish graded chase form this season but he has some form to make up on Santini from last years RSA.

Nicky Henderson’s Santini was 2^nd (Topof thegame the winner sadly out through injury this season) in that race nearly 2 lengths ahead. That came after his preparation had been badly affected by flu jabs and I’m inclined to mark his performance up – he also lost a shoe in the race!

Santini’s reappearance effort at Sandown was far from encouraging and anyone holding ante post tickets for this race might well have been inclined to tear them up

His win over this course in January when defeating Bristol de Mai erased all of those fears and it is that race that looks the best trial that I have seen this year.

There seem to be a lot of judges crabbing him as a slow horse still but he has long looked an ideal type for this race to me.

Question marks of him being able to lay up off a strong pace aren’t concerning to me since the one he should have to be following is the horse he beat last time

With so many others willing to question his ability I can see his price drifting but he is a clear pick for me to win chasing’s Blue Riband event

Recommendation

SANTINI

---

4.10 Foxhunters Chase

As in previous years this isn’t a race for me to comment on too much – I don’t follow the point to point scene well enough to have a firm opinion. Amateur rider angle would lead us towards Minella Rocco has has previous Festival  winning form and the services of the excellent Derek O’Connor

This one once looked a future Gold Cup winner but went badly downhill and his jumping went to pot. He has suddenly found some form again but it’s only on his last run you can get excited about his chance when beating last years champion Hazel Hill

Last years second Shantou Flyer also returns and is the pick of several runners that could have run in this for his enigmatic owner David Maxwell

Mr Maxwell wouldn’t be the most stylish rider in the field by any stretch but with his horse having an ideal prep and good previous course form I make him an each way pick. I’m never going to be his biggest fan but its hard to crab the number of winners he does ride – and I have seen far worse successful in this race (…cue quick reminiscence of The Drunken Duck’s win in 1982)

Billaway is the real dark horse in the field for Team Mullins but its hard for me to get a handle on this ones form

Recommendation

SHANTOU FLYER each way for smaller stakes – look for any firms offering 4 places and hopefully 10/1 being available

---

 

4.50 Grand Annual Hcap

I’ve already covered my selection for this race in Tuesday’s blog when selecting the novice LISP.

He has been one of my main bets this week and the only reservation I have is the form of some of the King stable runners earlier this week.

He jumps exceptionally well for a novice and should be much better suited coming off a strong pace than by having to make the running as he did last time (where he still put in an excellent effort)

The only thing that worries me is the form of the Alan King stable this week. Edwardstone ran ok in Tuesday’s Supreme but a few others have underperformed.

He has been a confident selection for this race but maybe has dropped to 4 stars instead of 5 with that little niggling thought in the background now

 

---

5.30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap

The’ getting out’ handicap for many and if no luck by this time I fear this race will be not any easier in making the situation any better

It’s been won by many in the past who have crept in with nice marks and gone onto graded race successes.

Last years winning team is represented by Front View but at around 5/1 no chances are being taken by firms that he will win. His mark of 139 is fair though

Gordon Elliott always targets this race as its run in the name of his old boss. Column of Fire looks to be his main contender this year but I think his trainer would have liked to see him get in with a mark lower than 143

Gordon also managed to squeak the reserve Escaria Ten into the race today by making another of his a non runner. That’s almost a tip in itself but the price soon collapsed today when this became apparent

Pileon is a strong contender for the home team and has good course form. His recent wins indicate he is on an upward curve and a mark of 138 could underestimate him. He also has the services of one the best conditional riders in the race in Ben Jones.

Stable form is a concern here and the running of Thyme Hill earlier in the day would be an influence here for me

At bigger three other for my shortlist would be Umbrigado and  the Kim Bailey pair Espoir De Romay and Happygolucky

David Pipe has obvious connections to this race and there has always been suggestions that Umbrigado has been rated better than this level. He lost a show when a disappointing favourite last time so could be excused that performance

The biggest clue for me that he is fancied for this is the booking of the excellent Jack Tudor for the ride

Espoir de Romay is definitely one to follow as a chaser but he had so much in hand last time that I think quotes of 25/1 are underestimating his chance here. He may still be a bit inexperienced for a race like this but that is built into the price

A similar comment applies to Happygolucky who isn’t badly trated for me off 137 on his earlier course form. He got bogged down in very soft ground last time and is likely to be ridden less aggressively here

A shortlist for this tricky race for me is

FRONT VIEW

ESCARIA TEN

UMBRIGADO

ESPOIR DE ROMAY

HAPPYGOLUCKY

 

With Front View being a bit too short and the value probably gone on Escaria Ten, I think the value probably appears in the other three for each way betting/extra places

---

Thanks for reading the final post of the week. I hope it’s been profitable and informative and we can finish with a flourish

Blog will be back for its usual Grand National posting the day before the big race – as long as that race is on! With current Corona Virus situation that is beginning to look doubtful this year

Paul