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Category Archives: 2000 Guineas

York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 1

York Ebor Meeting 2015 – Day 1

The blog returns for possibly my favourite Flat meeting of the year – York’s Ebor Festival.
As with last year it’s been hard work to get ahead on the Flat season. Uncertain ground (not helped by some courses being a bit too keen with their watering policies) is a constant issue I keep coming back to – throw in the added complication of draws and it makes analysis no easier sometimes.
I’m certainly finding it harder to get an edge on flat racing these days and am already looking forward to when the jumps return at a good level later this year.
As it was one of the closest tracks for me to visit in my youth, York (the ‘Ascot of the North’), always holds fond memories and is one of the big meetings where I will be hoping that more competitive pricing can give out some value.
As a course, it has its quirks that should be noted. In the past, a low draw in longer races was advantageous when most races remained on the far rail in the home straight. In recent years however this draw bias has been less important as the field often heads for the middle of the track instead.
The sprints over 5 and 6 furlongs could produce winners from all sides but since drainage work was done a few years ago, there do seem to be some channels of ground that are worse than others. I don’t see that many races won on the rails anymore – particularly on the stands side (and consequently a very high draw in big sprints can be a slight negative in my mind)
It’s also a track which did use to favour prominent runners more – although again this factor may be lessened by the racing taking place in the centre of the track. That ‘concertina’ effect can cause some unfortunate traffic problems for hold-up horses though so I’d still prefer something to be sitting not too far from the pace when they turn for home in the longer events


Wednesday’s opening day has one bet for me but first a quick say on the day’s showpiece event – one which should be the highlight of the week and maybe of the season.
3.40 Juddmonte International
It’s very rare we will see a Derby winner and a 2,000 Guineas winner from the same year taking each other on in a race. The fact that neither of them have been first past the post in every race of their careers to date mean that at least one will taste defeat for the first time.
John Gosden’s Golden Horn was the Epsom Derby victor and upheld that form in Sandown’s Eclipse when proving too good for the reopposing 4yo The Grey Gatsby (2nd in this race last year).

eclipse
He had to make his own pace there which made the win all the more meritorious. This time he has a pacemaker in Dick Doughtywylie. Add front running filly Arabian Queen into the equation and we should for once have a top class race this season where we can guarantee a good gallop from the start.
It’s hard to find negatives about this horse and with trip, ground and pace all looking ideal for him, he deserves his place at the head of the betting.
Supporters of The Grey Gatsby will be hoping he can do better on a course he has performed so well at before (lets not forget that Golden Horn won the Dante here easily though). He certainly may not have to take the race quite so early to Golden Horn as he did at Sandown and I would expect him to be challenging late on the scene. Strictly speaking it’s hard to see him turning the form around but he could profit from others battling too early here and pick up some pieces
The likely strong pace will be there to seek out stamina limitations in Aidan O’Brien’s 2000 Guineas victor, Gleneagles. He’s yet to race over more than a mile which at the time of his Classic win seemed to be suggested as his ideal trip. His sister Marvellous showed her best form over a mile but looked not to stay 12 furlongs. She never tried todays trip of 10 furlongs so we can’t really gain much from that. Gleneagles’ sire Galileo is a stamina influence but his dam was best at sprint trips.
He will get his desired ground and will be a tough opponent if his stamina holds but I just have a couple of niggling worries here aside from that.

gleneagles
He was pulled out of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood far too early for my liking (excuse of soft ground given – it had dried out by day of the race) and I just wonder if all was 100% with him.
He’s also without the services of injured Ryan Moore now. Joseph O’Brien resumes the ride he had last year but I’m afraid I just don’t rate in him in the same class as Moore on these big occasions when the difference between winning and losing can be so fine.
There is a fourth major player here though. Royal Ascot winner Time Test was immensely impressive in a fast time there and deserves his step up to this stage. It really is anyone’s guess as to how good this one is and he’s the real dark one of the race who could well have the ability to surprise the Classic winners.

timetst
The likely fastish ground is probably going to be against Aussie hope Criterion. He showed at Ascot that he’s a few lengths below this class on quick ground and all reports suggest he needs a softer surface to bring his A game into play.
It’s a fascinating race in which I would be struggling to pick out the winner with any great conviction.
The prices on offer are about right for me and so I won’t be getting involved but just watching the race.
If 8 runners do line up for the race that means 3 places will be paid and I think there might be some each way value in The Grey Gatsby at around 12/1 then. If there is a non –runner and we go down to a field of 7, only 2 places will be paid and the value of that bet would diminish considerably


The rest of Tuesday’s card I find quite tricky.
Bogart is a bit of a cliff horse for me in the opener and has place chances under what seem to be close to his optimum conditions.However, all too often he seems to fade away in the last 50 yards these days so I would need a decent double figure price with 5 places to be attracted.
In the main back up race, the Great Voltigeur, at 3.05, I can make a case for all bar one of the 7 runners (Medrano needs much softer ground at this level to have any chance). I will happily pass that one by!


It’s the last race on the card where my one bet of the day is to be found.
4.55
Sir Roger Moore is one of 4 runners in the 20 strong field that has Group race entries. He is entered at Group 1 level along with Whitman and Kassia (Dream Destination has a Group 3 entry). He ran an encouraging 3rd on his debut back here in May.at the Dante meeting The winner of that race, Seastrom, hasn’t raced since and the second hasn’t really advertised the form. A few that were behind him that day have gone onto show the worth of it though. (Another Touch for instance was behind in 4th that day and was an impressive Nursery winner off a mark of 7 earlier this month).
Charlie Hills colt was considered good enough to head for the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next start. Not surprisingly he wasn’t good enough and his stall 1 berth did this free going sort no favours. He wasn’t able to get cover early there and wasted too much energy too early.
He still finished in front of Qeyaadah though who reopposes here on 10lb worse terms here!
He then dropped back in grade for a Goodwood maiden. Very little went right here but I’m quite glad that the Racing Post didn’t seem to fully notice what a horrendous passage he suffered as this probably helps with his price here.
Again he was slightly keen early but Graham Gibbons soon got him settled before starting to make a run. He was then almost knocked off twice when trying to find a passage before being allowed to coast in in his own time in 8th.
I think he would have gone very close to winning that race that day with more luck in running and on previous formlines his opening handicap mark of 81 could be a little lenient.
In stall 6 this time, I’m hoping he can get some early cover again to get him settled early. Then given the usual luck needed in a 20 runner race I think he has an excellent chance to prevail and go some way to justifying his Group race entries. Early money for John Quinn’s Reputation suggests he could be on a lucrative mark and perhaps the biggest danger – Kassia has performed well at a better level than this but is at a disadvantage for a filly in having to give weight to the selection

(Noticeable that connections pulled out Sir Roger Moore from what looked an easy winning opportunity at Windsor on Monday night (ground excuse given) to go for this)

Recommendation:

1.5 pts ew Sir Roger Moore @14/1 (Skybet, BetVictor, Pady Power, 888)

Current prices available here : http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-08-19-york/16:55/winner

Thanks for reading as usual
Good luck all!

Paul

(comments as usual are always welcomed)

 

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Guineas weekend -Newmarket 2015

The Flat season really goes into overdrive this weekend with Newmarket hosting the first two classics of the season – Saturday’s 2,000 Guineas and Sunday’s fillies equivalent – the 1,000 Guineas.
While there is decent racing elsewhere there’s nothing that entices me too much for betting purposes so this blog will be focussing on the action at ‘Headquarters’.
Expected rain has fallen at the rack this week but not to such a degree that the ground has eased much. It was reported as Good to Firm on Thursday and with largely dry conditions forecast since we should anticipate going on the fast side of Good
Saturday 2nd May
The 2,000 Guineas at 3.45pm is the centrepiece with 19 runners due to go to post at time of writing (Elm Park may be a doubt though if fast conditions remain which could result in a small rule 4 deduction)

Prices can be found here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-05-02-newmarket/15:45/winner
In particular for each way punters note the firms who give an extra place and offer ¼ odds 1234…its worth its weight in gold as long as the win odds aren’t paltry in comparison.
Gleneagles heads the betting at no more than 3/1 and is part of a double pronged Aidan O’Brien attack with Ol Man River (about double those odds).
The former is the sort who just seems to do enough in his races – and therefore it’s hard to judge just how much he does have in reserve. With Ryan Moore seemingly having stable first choice now I have to favour him over his stablemate, who may be a better type later in the season over slightly further.
I don’t really hear the same stable confidence as with the stable’s recent runners in this race – Camelot and Australia. While both have to be respected I don’t consider them to be value prices right now
French raider Territories comes next in the list at around 6/1 and was a ready winner of France’s main trial for this the Prix Djebel. He was a late addition to this race when supplemented last week and there has to be a whiff of some last-minute panic to have a Godolphin owned runner at the event. Andre Fabre can never be underestimated when he sends one across but he looks to have a little to find on Gleneagles on 2yo form from Longchamp – and all of his best form is on a softer surface
Estidhkaar is next in the list and already a recommended bet on this blog Ante Post after his Greenham trial when a close second in a very quick time. He was 14/1 then and no more than 8/1 now. He returned injured from his one poor run last season and really looks like a horse who needs this mile trip.

estidhkaar

He had Ivawood 4 lengths behind him at Newbury and the latter’s jockey Richard Hughes has made some claims this week that his mount can improve enough to reverse those placings. This would seem to rely on Estidhkaar not having improved but I’ve little doubt he will. More of a concern for Ivawood supporters would be stamina – his sire (although bred to stay further) was a sprinter and I fell that 6 furlongs rather than a mile is where Ivawood’s future beckons.
It should be remembered that although from the same stable, Hughes would never have had the option to ride Estidhkaar as Sheikh Hamdan has his own contracted jockeys.
Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum also owns the supplemented Intilaaq – highly impressive in his one race on tha same Newbury card. It’s hard to know what he beat there but he routed them all. The time was good but didn’t match the splits of the Greenham in any way. Paul Hanagan would have had the pick but he has chosen Estidhkaar.
Elm Park comes here with similar credentials to Kingston Hill last season having looked the best 2yo around when stamina was really at a premium in the Racing Post Trophy. As previously suggested he may not run if the ground remains quick and I think will find others to outspeed him if he does turn up. The Derby appears his main aim this season in any case.
At Doncaster he looked to have a race on his hands for a while with Celestial Path until that one couldn’t go with him in the soft ground. It had already been suggested that Celestial Path would have a problem with conditions underfoot and he is now likely to be back to a surface that suits. He’s very closely related to the Group winning fillies Chachamaidee and J Wonder and a quick look through their form shows them to have a big need for Good or Good to Firm conditions.

celestial path
Sir Mark Prescott for once won’t be having a handicap coup in mind here and I think we can expect him to be ready despite no run so far this season. He appeals as a good outsider to keep on side.
Kool Kompany proved his toughness when an all the way winner in the Craven Stakes. That proved he stays this trip and goes on this course. That race was a level below the Greenham trial but he still appears slightly shunned by bookmakers who quote him at 25/1+
Lastly I have to give a mention to a favourite of mine, Glenalmond at 66/1. I really liked his chances in his debut in the Free Handicap but like so many of Karl Burke’s runners this season he appeared to need his first race. He is 5lb better off for a 4 length beating by Home of the Brave on that run which should make things much closer. I do think Home of the Brave was a lot sharper that time and that he may be the less well suited to this 1 mile trip. I do have a slight reservation about the ground being on the quick side for Glenalmond but in essence feel that he should be about the same price as his conqueror.

Glenalmond

There is no better Guineas jockey around than Kieran Fallon and he seemed very positive about the colt on Twitter yesterday after riding him out on the Middleham gallops.
There may be some heart ruling the head here as I was tickling away at his odds of 1000 before and after the Free Handicap run. Suffice to say that if Fallon does get his 10th Guineas win the blog may be quiet for some time!
With a big field we could well get a split of two groups in this race something that caused a controversial result when Night of Thunder beat Kingman and Australia last year. Likely pacesetters would seem to be Home of The Brave (draw 17) and Kool Kompany (draw 7) – with possibly Intilaaq (11) also prominent. Hopefully this will give an even pace on either side and there won’t be any hard luck stories (but Newmarket alas does have a few too many of these)
Recommendations:
With Gleneagles too short and having already got a solid position on Estidhkaar I’ll be adding two outsiders to the portfolio with firms offering 4 places. Kool Kompany almost makes it to the list but I feel he may be just serve to be a pacemaker for Estidhkaar in the next stall
So the other two are;
1pt ew Celestial Path @20/1 (1/4 1234 Paddy Power,365, Skybet)
0.5pts ew Glenalmond @66/1 (1/4 1234 365, Paddy Power, Skybet)

Prices correct at 1705 BST 01/05/2015

(already recommended ante post 2pts ew Estidhkaar @14/1)

The remaining tv races:

(prices correct on these at 1800 BST 01/05/2015)

2.00
Top Tug may well be an improver this season but this is his seasonal debut and his best piece of form comes on softer ground. He also may need a further. I don’t think he merits being favourite for this race. The two top weights Bronze Angel and Educate couldn’t have better C&D form having been the last two winners of the Cambridgeshire. It’s Educate who appeals by far the most on these terms. He’s back to the same mark he won that top handicap from and – he is fit and ran well in a Group 3 event last time.
The best early prices have already disappeared but I still rate him a bet where 8/1 is available
Recommendation
1.5 pts ew Educate 8/1 (365, Skybet, Ladbrokes, Corals, Betfair Sportsbook , Boyles)

2.30
Stepper Point is an old friend of mine but his Group winning penalty may find him out here on a course that I think is just a little too stiff for him. Watchable is early fav but has never competed at this trip before – there’s a world of difference between showing pace at 6 furlongs and competing with real speedballs at 5 furlongs.
I’ll be sitting this race out – NO BET


3.05
A dismal turn out of 4 runners and a short priced fav in Telescope. He looked in need of his first run last season (albeit on soft ground) and although he is the clear form pick I certainly wouldn’t want to be chancing very short odds in what could be a very tactical race. Ryan Moore is also expressing some misgivings about fast ground in his blog and I can see his price drifting – he’ll certainly be looked after with the rest of the season in mind
Pethers Moon has race fitness on his side and could well benefit. It’s just his 3lb penalty which prevents me putting him up at 3/1
I don’t think there is that much between the two outsiders Second Step and Odeon on form but as one is around 6/1 and the other 33/1+ I am drawn to a tickle on the big outsider here.
Last season Odeon showed definite ability but often ruined his chances by pulling far too hard.
He’s been gelded over the winter and I am taking a chance that this could help him realise his undoubted potential – Graham Lee is also very good at these tactical races
Recommendation
0.5pts win Odeon 40/1 (Paddy Power)

Saturday selections

2pts ew Estidhkaar 14/1 (Ante Post already advised 2 weeks ago)

1pt ew Celestial Path 20/1

0.5pts ew Glenalmond 66/1

RESULTS; No draw in the Guineas with Gleneagles running out an impressive winner. Estidhkaar was most disappointing. Celestial Path did best of the picks in 5th and might well have been closer but for an inconvenient draw. Loss of 7pts

1.5 pts ew Educate 8/1

RESULT; Educate travelled into the race well but was just beaten by two better horses. There will be some Rule 4 deductions here and some firms may pay out 1/5th odds instead of 1/4. I’ll be settling the blog recommendation at 1/4 odds with a Rule 4 of 15p as I have on bets that I have personally placed. Therefore that returns 4.05 pts and a profit of 1.05 pts

0.5 pts win Odeon 40/1

Backed into 16/1 I thought there might be something in this but Odeon was readily brushed aside. Loss 0.5pts

10.5 pts staked in total on the day – 4.05pts returned – a loss of 6.45 pts

*****************************

SUNDAY 3rd May

While quick conditions were prevalent on Saturday there is rain forecast this evening which could have an effect on the going for Sunday’s card
My thoughts on the main race below

1,000 Guineas (3.40)
Often a tricky race and it can produce surprise results – for the fillies more so than the colts this race may be run too early in the season before they come to hand.
Odds can be found here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-05-03-newmarket/15:40/winner
Considering there are only 13 runners there’s a notable bonus being offered by http://www.paddypower.com who pay out on 4 places

There have been some shocks in recent years . Homecoming Queen 25/1 in 2012 was a clear winner and showed little afterwards – in 2010 Jacqueline Quest was first past the post at 66/1 but subsequently disqualified (in possibly Newmarket’s worst ever showing of a draw bias in a Classic in recent years).
All 13 declared runners have a chance of some sort but I feel the trip may be too far for last year’s juvenile speedball Tiggy Wiggy – and too short for Irish raider Legatissimo
Lucida is at the head of the betting and was a consistently good performer last year until her final start (possibly over the top then – or maybe soft ground was to blame?) She is closely matched with Fadhayyil (beaten a length here in the Rockfel) , Malabar and Osaila (also both a length to find on Curragh form. Qualify was further back in that Curragh race and seemingly held.
I would think the winner would most likely comes from this group of 4 and Osaila has some edge in that she has had a run (and a winning one on this course) this season.
Jim Bolger and Barry Hills the respective trainers of Lucida and Fadhayyil have both won this race before with seasonal debutantes (Finsceal Beo and Ghanaati) so they must still be greatly feared.
Fadhayyil is the one I think could be the best of this quartet – she still looked very raw when beaten by Lucida and was the one who really stuck out as having the scope to progress most at 3.

fadhayyil

Like Ghanaati, it was always the plan of her trainer to have no prep for this and to come here after just a racecourse gallop. It’s a question of if she is fully tuned up and if she is I think she will take some beating.
Malabar also comes here without a run and was a bit unlucky both at The Curragh and subsequently on here final start at Longchamp. I just have a feeling that she doesn’t have the same scope as some of her rivals
Redstart and Jellicle Ball were the 1-2 in the Fred Darling trial at Newbury and represent a completely different form line. Ralph Beckett does seem to train his fillies to be ready for that race and so it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Jellicle Ball improve past her here over an extra furlong.
Local Time has carried all before her in Dubai already this year ( a similar warm up to last year’s 3rd Ihtimal). She hasn’t beaten anything of the standard that runs here though and her form on this course last season – while it was a win – looks a bit below what may be required here.

I don’t think predicted rain will alter my thoughts on this race if it comes or not so I’ll give these two recommendations

2pts win Fadhayyil @13/2 (general)

1.5pts ew Osaila @8/1 (Paddy Power 1/4 1234)

I do fancy Fadhayyil as the likelier winner but with her proven fitness Osaial as s stronger place banker – hence why only one is recommended each way

Of the back up races in the card there are a few possible bets but all of them in some way are dependent on the degree of rain that falls overnight.
Therefore I’ll post any of these in an update tomorrow morning

***** SUNDAY MORNING UPDATE*****
While rain has fallen it doesn’t appear there has been that much and ground will still be quick like yesterday (while some times didn’t reflect this that was probably down to a strong headwind)

Thoughts on the back up races (except the two year old maiden at 4.15)

1.50 I have my eye on Astronereus as a horse who could win something decent this year but both he and likely fav Gothic may have wanted a bit more rain – this prevents me from making a recommendation here

*
2.25 I’m a bit surprised to see Rizeena being chanced over a mile and on a course where she doesn’t always seem to show her best form. Fintry is the form pick but has never raced on a surface this quick.

*
3.0 A very competitive sprint handicap but am backing two here with firms who offer ¼ odds 1st 5.

Gamesome has long been highly regarded by his trainer and I feel could prove better than a handicapper this term – his reappearance run in Group 3 company was highly encouraging.
Foxtrot Romeo is more exposed but will be fitter than most here having been on the all weather this winter. He is 5lbs better off for 3 lenghts with Huntsmans Close on their Ayr running last year. That should make it close now but Foxtrot Romeo wasn’t racing on that golden patch of ground next to the rail that day as the winner did. I think he can reverse that form and is the better value pick
Recommendations
1pt ew Gamesome 10/1 (365, Skybet, Paddy Power – all1/4 odds 12345)
0.75 pts ew Foxtrot Romeo 18/1 (365)

*

4.50 No bet here but Forte is worth bearing in mind as her family is littered with an Oaks theme. She’s a half sister to Talent (winner of this race 2 years ago) and a descendant of Bireme, both Epsom winners – and her grand dam Yawl was favourite for the same race. I won’t bet on here here as the ground is a concern and there are some nice looking unexposed types in the field.

*

5.25 Last bet of the day here. There is little to separate Muqtaser and Lostock Hall on their form at the last meeting here but they are now best prices of 3/1 and 14/1 respectively.
This makes little sense to me and I have to back the latter as Karl Burke’s runners have mostly seemed to need their initial runs this year. The lack of heavyt rain is a definite plus point in the selections favour here.
The one niggle is that all the runners finished in a heap in that race they both contended – and so maybe the form isn’t strong – but there’s nothing jumping out at me from the rest of the field
Recommendation
0.75pts ew Lostock Hall 14/1 (Hills)

Thanks for reading – comments always welcome

Paul

Sunday selections 10pts staked

1pt ew Gamesome 10/1*

0.75pts ew Foxtrot Romeo 18/1*

2pts win Fadhayyil 13/2

1.5pts ew Osaila 8/1*

0.75pts ew Lostock Hall

* recommended where special place terms available

RESULTS

A fairly bruising weekend with only Gamesome giving any returns (1.75 pts for a 5th place dead heat).

The Betfair drift on Fadhayil pre race was ominous and Osaila was very disappointing after racing too keenly

Sunday returned a loss of 8.25 pts

RUNNING TOTAL

From the initial bank of 50pts the balance is 56.53 pts (11.3% ahead)

This was a disappointing weekend which I hope we can bounce back from in coming weeks. The Chester meeting may give some opportunities next week when the blog may return on Wednesday

 

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Scottish Grand National day 18 April (+ 2000 Guineas Antepost update)

Saturday’s cards see some quality jump racing at Ayr and some high class flat racing at Newbury
Some brief thoughts below with my best offerings for the day:

The main event
Scottish Grand National 3.45 AYR
I have some doubts about effectiveness of Gallant Oscar over this extreme trip and if ground maybe on the quick side for him.
My two against the field are Sego Success and Trustan Times
Sego Success is having a very similar preparation to Alan King’s Godsmejudge who won this 2 years ago. He looks all about stamina and will be much better suited by the pace here than at Cheltenham last time where it all developed into a bit of a sprint. I can see him reversing form with Broadway Buffalo from that run here in race that will be run at a true gallop from the off
Trustan Times has also had a similar preparation to when he came here last year and finished 3rd behind Al Co (latter reopposes but a negative for me that he was probably trained for the Grand National instead last week where he fell at the first). He ran well to a point at Cheltenham and when it was clear he wouldn’t be placed the foot was taken right off the pedal
Both horses should be effective on this ever drying ground in Scotland
I could see Harry the Viking running into a place on this ground as well as he’s been very consistent of late and I have a lot of time for his trainer. He keeps going up in the weights without winning which just puts me of him as a recommendation but wouldn’t put anyone off at 25/1+

Recommendations
1pt ew each
Sego Success 14/1 (take ¼ odds 12345 with 365, Coral or Betfair Sportsbook)
Trustan Times 16/1 (365, Coral)

3.10 Ayr
The preceding race has the best bet of the day for me in Duke Of Navan.
He looked a really good recruit when winning on his debut this season but then seemed to disappoint when beaten at odds-on on the last two occasions. Those defeats don’t look bad at all now as his conqueror Just Cameron easily won a handicap off 140 at Haydock since. That makes Duke of Navan’s mark of 139 look very workable now and he is back on ground that suits him so much better now.
There should be some pace in this race with Strongpoint and Dunraven Storm in the field which will suit his hold up style. Nicky Richards could have upped him in grade at Aintree last week but I think has kept him back specifically for this.

duke of navan
Recommendation
3pts win Duke Of Navan 7/2 (Skybet, Ladbrokes)

3.25 Newbury
A very competitive handicap but Buckstay is so consistent in this grade I have to have a nibble at 8/1 with 5 places being paid out by some.
Lincoln winner Gabrial should be his chief opponent and at bigger prices I give ew squeaks to Santefisio and Mister Music who both have performed well on higher marks. The latter was behind Buckstay last time but travelled well into that race and could have just needed it
Recommendation;
1pt ew Buckstay 8/1 (365, Paddy Power both paying 5 places)

2.15 Newbury
Not recommending a bet directly in this race but it’s going to make very interesting watching. Last season’s brilliant two-year old Tiggy Wiggy has stamina to prove and a very interesting rival in Jellicle Ball who had time analysts in raptures on her splits on her debut.
With Ryan Moore booked I wouldn’t be surprised to see the latter run very well and there could be something in 365’s 50/1 for her to win this race and the 1,000 Guineas for those who can get on with that firm

Thanks for reading and best of luck

Paul

Saturday’s recommended bets 9pts staked

Results

Duke of Navan 1st 7/2 ( +10.5 pts)

All went beautifully here once the selection just managed to avoid an early disaster with two fallers at the first fence

Buckstay unplaced (-2pts)

A fairly exaggerated hold up ride here and he was ultimately on the wrong side of the course anyway. Never involved in finish

Trustan Times and Sego Success both unplaced (-4pts)

Trustan Times made a few too many jumping errors – he had an outside place chance at the home turn before running into a faller and then it was race over. Sego Success was a disappointment, travelling well until the final circuit and then unable to compete as the heat was turned up

This leaves the blog with a 4.5pt profit on the day and a running balance of 67.48 pts from the initial 50pt bank

…..

2000 GUINEAS

There’s a further bet for me to be had now after watching today’s Classics trials.

Despite narrow defeat I was very impressed with Estidhkaar‘s effort from the front in the Greenham. Paul Hanagan was probably aware others may have had more pace in behind over this 7 furlong trip but he beat them all off comfortable except Muharrar and wasn’t done at the finishing line at all. A course record shows the result in very good light and I can see him doing far better over a mile in the Guineas where he should be able to sit just off a decent pace. Improvement must be expected from today and he wouldn’t be the first to be defeated in the Greenham and to come back and win the colts classic. The one thing I wouldn’t want to see is soft ground at Newmarket in 2 weeks time on which he seems to be less effective. He seems definitely to be going for the race from what I have read since and this also leaves the owner’s Zawraq to be free to be aimed at the Derby now he has another bona fide contender for the race.

I would expect Paul Hanagan to be riding again and think he should be a single figure price now. Hence I’m happy to take the 14s generally now offered

Recommendation

2pts ew Estidhkaar @14/1 2,000 Guineas

(Tote/Betfred, Boyles, BetVictor. Corals, Betfair Sportsbook, SportingBet)

 

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