Another big National Hunt festival is on the horizon next week with Aintree commencing on Thursday 11^th April for 3 days. 

I will be doing my usual piece on the ‘piece de resistance’ – the Grand National after the final declarations are done on the 11^th. 

It’s not the only big race of interest though and this extra blog post concentrates on Friday’s Topham Trophy where I’ve got an early ante post interest. 

The Topham is also run over the Grand National course but over a shorter trip. It’s been a race that always interested me just as much as the big one itself. 

Current ante post odds can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/topham-handicap-chase/winner. 

Note that on Saturday 6th April, the 5 days declarations for Friday’s card will be done and odds will be revised as some runners are taken out. This post hopes to take advantage of prices now before that occurs. 

Given it is April we normally expect the ground to be more spring-like for this meeting. However, with rainfall still uncommonly high, the ground is currently soft/heavy. With more rain forecast, we have to expect it may be soft going next week also. 

At the top of the market, we see a few who performed well at the Cheltenham Festival – In Excelsis Deo, Crebilly, Shakemupharry, James Du Berlais, The Goffer. It’s noteworthy that the last 4 winners of the Topham all avoided Cheltenham. Cheltenham was also run on quite soft ground so I would have a little concern about how hard a race this group had – and if this race is an afterthought for them.  

Last year’s winner Bill Baxter is also fighting for favouritism. Last year he’d won 3 of his previous 4 races coming into this. That win could have taken its toll a bit as he hasn’t shown the same form since. The upside is that his mark has dropped again so he comes here only a pound higher than last year. He’d have to be a contender given this race has had a few back-to-back winners before. He could just be a different horse here but as things stand, he’ll need 16 horses to drop out above him to get into this year’s race (maximum field size is 30 runners). He’s also better off with last year’s runner-up Fantastic Lady (she ran well given she would prefer a better surface but may not get it this time) 

2022 winner Mac Tottie is also entered but he is also engaged in the Grand National and may not be a certain runner. He’s also on a much higher 11-pound mark than when he won this so will need all his proven skills jumping this course to be competitive again. 

The likelihood of soft ground would also be a concern for Ben Pauling’s Your Darling. A talented but frustrating type, he has a great record of running fresh after a long break – as he will here. This is the highest mark he’s ever had to carry though.  

Dan Skelton’s skills in preparing one for a big handicap were there for all to see at Cheltenham and his Sail Away also had the right look about him when entries came out. There was some early support for him, and I’d give him a great chance on good ground, but I fear the rain is against him. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him skip this race if it stayed soft and wait for the Ayr meeting a week later where he won last year. If the ground did dry up however, he’d be high up on my shortlist 

And so, onto the one that really catches my eye – Henry Daly’s LOUNGE LIZARD. You wouldn’t touch a 7-year-old in the Grand National normally but in this race it’s no bad thing at all (Bill Baxter a case in point last season). 

Like last year’s winner, he’s a proper chasing type who has simply taken time to grow into his frame and start to fulfil his potential (a type well suited to his trainer). 

It was over these National fences back in the Becher Chase back in December where he first really hit my radar. There he seemed to enjoy his baptism over the big fences and had no trouble sharing the lead with a real course pro in Percussion. All went well until the Canal Turn where something happened (I think loose horse related) that caused him to drop from leading to 4^th and losing several lengths. He was still bang there until the home turn but the effort on heavy ground, combined with a half mile further trip, then took its toll. He wasn’t given a hard time from thereon but immediately went into my notebook with this race in mind – especially since he was carrying 6 pounds more than his official mark. 

That race can’t have left too much of a mark as he reappeared to finish 2^nd in a warm Cheltenham handicap next time. That was over a furlong less than this race and he certainly wasn’t stopping at the finish. G A Law who beat him that day maybe weighted to confirm form, but he has to carry a massive weight here and certainly didn’t have a good prep when pulling up at the Cheltenham Festival) 

The last four winners of this race all ran early in March but avoided Cheltenham. I was delighted when Lounge Lizard skipped to the Festival too and instead had a workmanlike win at Huntingdon on 3^rd March. I can’t imagine that the tight right-handed track was what he wanted there, and this more demanding left-handed course will suit so much better. 

The narrow win did at least mean his mark wasn’t raised too high and he comes here off 136 – the same mark he effectively had to run off here in December. 

In short, I think he had a great sighter of these fences earlier this season and this has probably been the plan for him ever since. 

25/1 is available in a place still, but I’m also happy to support at 20/1. 

He is number 40 currently so needs 10 to come out to ensure a run. I’ll be hopeful that a few of those will drop out on Saturday. There’s no cause for concern if ten don’t drop out come race day with ante post rules though – balloted out horses are entitled to a refund under general Ante Post rules 

***UPDATE – Saturday 6th April. 5 day declarations are now in and with 16 horses being withdrawn. Lounge Lizard sits at number 24 and is guaranteed a run in the race. Last year’s winner, Bill Baxter, also now finds himself in a safe position at 28. Two of the early favourites, In Excelsis Deo and Crebilly ,were taken out of the race today. There will be one more remaining entry stage on Wednesday when the final declarations will be made.***

Recommendation 

Back Lounge Lizard at 20/1 of better for 1pt ew 

I’ll write more about the Grand National next week where the ground will have a major influence if it stays soft. I’d be looking at lower weights far more the worse the ground is. At this stage the one who sticks out as wanting all the rain and having the right weight would be Mr Incredible and so wouldn’t put anyone off a small each way double with the Topham selection as I think his price may drop a good bit the more it rains 

Thanks for reading, 

Until next week, 

Paul 

(For anyone looking for full stats on the Aintree meeting I’d advise you to check @ChrisGartner2 on Twitter/X who can supply a highly detailed document with some great information included. Some essential reading in there!)