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York Ebor meeting – Day 3

21 Aug

‘Watch the skies’ is still the advice for Day 3 of York’s Ebor meeting. 5mm fell on Thursday to take the ‘firm’ out of the going and more could be coming this evening.
So tomorrow could be good to firm or it could be good to soft..and hard to take definite views with this in mind.
For longer races, it was apparent today that coming up the centre of the home straight was necessary – something that should negate the usual low draw bias.
Thursday’s first race also showed once again that the stands rail is not a place to go. Anything drawn high in the sprints would be well advised to track towards central ground.
Some quick views for tomorrow:

1.55 Chancery has dropped down to an attractive mark and has good form at the course. I am just slightly put off as he has looked like a horse in need of a break on his last two starts and so plump for Pearl Castle instead. He wouldn’t want a deluge overnight but should be effective on most going and also has that nice C&D by his name. A good 5lb claim could make a lot of difference here
1pt ew Pearl castle 11/1 (Coral)

2.30 Pass!

3.05 A very closely matched field but I’ll be having a small interest on Windfast here. Again seems effective on most ground and had looked progressive until finding 1 mile too far on his last start
0.5pts ew Windfast 14/1 (general)

3.40 Ground is key here. Sole Power needs it quick so any further rain will be to his detriment. Conversely any more rain could set this up for a Hot Streak revival (don’t come up the stands rail though please Jamie!).
Rangali’s form is also soft ground based but he hasn’t encountered quick yet to judge if it will be against him. A literal interpretation of a victory over Catcall puts him bang in this – but did Catcall run to his best last time out? Still I can understand why the 16/1 on him is disappearing tonight and there are worse outsiders than him
Early pace is likely to come from Take Cover (stall 9) and Stepper Point (2). I take the view that Stepper Point was a shade unlucky when these two met at Goodwood having been left on his own early. If there isn’t a big rainfall I make him the best outsider here and worth a little opp with Hills who pay out for 4th place

stepper point
0.5 pts ew Stepper Point 20/1 (Hills 1/5th odds 1234)

4.20 A maiden race where I have no view at all

4.55 Main bet of the day for me – we haven’t seen the best of Moohaarib yet and I think he’s just overpriced here at 13/2
1.5pts ew Moohaarib 13/2 (hills)

Thanks for reading and hope everyone has a successful day – any more updates because of going I will again post on Twitter

Paul

 
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Posted by on August 21, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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