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Glorious Goodwood – Day 1

29 Jul

A few too many thoughts for Day 1 to tweet but here’s my take on the 4 tv races on Tuesday, the first day of the meeting.

There’s no doubt that Goodwood is a beautiful racecourse – great for a picnic and a glass of Pimms in the sunshine but not always the best place for betting for me with hard luck stories aplenty in the bigger fields.

Wednesday’s card already looks a no bet today for the moment but here goes for day 1 ; ground has eased slightly over the weekend to good/good to firm in places and rain is expected tomorrow morning which could wipe the ‘firm’ out the description totally

1.55 Locally trained Blue Surf is the one to beat – back over his optimum trip and on a course he has performed well over in the past. 8/1 ew looks a perfectly fair price to take – any extra rain tomorrow will be a bonus to his chances.  Strictly Silver should benefit from a drop back in trip as well and could be an outsider whose chances are greater than the 20/1 currently on offer

2.30 Wide open affair and could make a case for nearly all of the runners – most of whom ran at Royal Ascot. I think Ambiance needs quick ground and don’t think he will get it. Many of these clashed in the Windsor Castle – Supplicant came out best there and Ryan Moore has a very healthy 75% strike rate for Richard Fahey this year so far. He was not dominant enough there though to suggest that 3/1 quotes are screaming to be taken. What value there is lies more with Sleeper King at 12/1 (corals completely duck at 15/2 ) and Justice Day at 16/1. Both were beaten about 3 lengths in that race but both showed a lot of speed which could be better suited to this track – and they can cope with any softer ground. Small ew on both is the recommendation.

3.05 Garswood is the one of interest here particularly with Ryan Moore now on board Richard Fahey’s Free Hcap winner. He didnt look totally happy on the fast ground at Ascot and think tomorrows conditions could show him in his best light again over what seems his optimum trip right now. Value is disappearing though and yesterdays quotes of 8/1 now seem a distant memory with 6/1 currently top price.

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3.40 This competitive handicap is a bit of an Ebor trial. Oriental Fox is probably the one to beat – he ran well here earlier in the year and his one poor run this season could be attributed to faster ground than he’ll see here. He has run from the front here before but doesn’t have to lead. The pace angle of this race quite interests me as aside from the favourite, I could see Harris Tweed getting an uncontested lead up front with no one else wanting to take him on. That fact makes him the value ew bet at 20/1 and any further ease in the ground is again a positive factor

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Thanks for reading, comments are always welcome and good luck with whatever you back

 

Paul

 

 
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Posted by on July 29, 2013 in Uncategorized

 

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