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Royal Ascot – day 3

19 Jun

Ladies Day – the centrepiece of the Royal meeting is upon us after a couple of up and down days to precede it

Rizeena put things back into a respectable fashion on Wednesday after places were all I could muster on day 1.

Some thoughts for day 3 where the overnight weather could play a big part:

2.30 US trainer Wes Ward sent a very quick filly across to finish second in the Queen Mary and the vibes are that his representative here – No Nay Never is the best of his raiding party. If the rain doesn’t get into deep and ground is on fast side still tomorrow he could blitz this lot for speed (the trainer has won 2yo races similarly here in the past). If the ground softens his chances diminish. Hard to judge a recommendation until seeing what the ground is like but 5/1 really appeals if it’s no slower than good

 

3.05 Not a betting race for me. Alive Alive Oh and Winsili appearing the principals to me but neither at prices I would want to take

 

3.45 18 runners and the most open Gold Cup in living memory.

Last years winner, Colour Vision just hasn’t done anything since to suggest he is in the same vein of form.

Times Up is a doubtful stayer at this trip for me and I don’t think the German and French raiders are quite good enough.

The Queen’s Estimate is fav but price is too skinny I think.

The Irish provide most of the key contenders for me with Rite of Passage (previous winner and lightly raced 9yo), Simenon and Saddlers Rock. I have already put up the latter in Tuesday’s blog and think he will be trained to the minute for this. He was fancied last year and things didn’t quite go right for him but the trip is ideal and while he goes on most ground if it stays on firm side he will be suited better than most.

If there is to be a shock I think Biographer is quite unexposed and his reappearance run reads very well now

Saddlers Rock (now 9/1 with William Hill) remains the  recommendation with a small ew interest on Biographer at 20/1 or more (as I write I see Pricewise could have scuppered any chance of that price now though!)

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4.25 A very competitive handicap but two horses here already look above this level in Wentworth and Cape Peron. The latter is a horse I have particular fondness for and still looks leniently treated here to me.

Weather is again a factor. Henry Candy has said he is doubtful to run if ground is fast. The forecast rain will help him and if it doesn’t materialise it could just be a case of getting the money back as he won’t be risked unless the trainer is happy

1pt ew Cape Peron 7/1

 

5.0 The best renewal I can ever remember of this Group 3 event – and the first 5 or 6 in the betting could all be a grade or two higher than this. None of them stand out so I’ll just be happy to watch and have no bet

 

5.35 Another competitive handicap. In years past I remember two subsequent multiple Group  1 winners finishing in the rear here after a barging match at the back of the field – Celeric and Pilsudski. It just goes to show that the best horse needs luck in running in a race like this

I can’t see anything here reaching the dizzy heights of those two but think that Godolphin’s top weight Cap O’Rushes doesn’t have that bad a mark judged on his reappearance effort and could be worth a little tickle

0.25 pts ew Cap O Rushes at 20/1 or higher

 

Good luck all – thoughts and comments always welcome

 

Paul

 

(i’m told that blue would be a likely colour for the Queen’s hat today for anyone liking that bet – but its in no possible way a recommendation from me :))

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Posted by on June 19, 2013 in Uncategorized

 

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