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Glorious Goodwood – day 3

31 Jul

A successful day for the blog on Tuesday with Garswood swooping late and Harris Tweed being able to control the race as I hoped at a lovely double figure price – giving a handsome profit on the day.

I didn’t see Wednesday as a great betting day but some thoughts for Thursday’s tv races below

2.15

When this race used to be the Extel Handicap in years gone by, Luca Cumani would always be feared. His Ajmany doesnt look the Group winner in waiting that he used to throw here in the past though and along with current fav Code of Honour they don’t appeal at available odds after the handicapper has upped them both for recent wins.

There are two bigger prices that are more noteworthy and will be backing both ew. 

King George River 16/1. Was watching this one with interest last weekend in a much better race at York on his return from an injury sustained while giving subsequent French Derby victor Intello a good race at Newmarket. It may have been the fast ground or lack of a recent run but I got the distinct impression he was given an easy time with a view to something else.  My immediate thought was that his handicap mark of 103  could be on lenient side still and it’s notable for me that he has turned out again here so soon – Fallon on board rather than Tylicki now and less jar in the ground.

 

Cruck Realta is also overpriced at 25/1 now the ground is a bit easier and warrants support. She has run well against decent types this season and conditions were against her last time. I’d rather judge her on some earlier season performances here – on her run on good to soft earlier in the season she split the now 100+ rated pair of Contributer and yesterday’s Gordon Stakes winner, Cap O Rushes. Her mark of 95 tomorrow looks good in that respect and I think she is a better filly when the word ‘firm’ doesnt figure in the going

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2.45

Godolphin’s Figure of Speech is too short for me here. Granted he may well improve on his July Stakes 2nd but he doesnt have much in hand on Jallota ( a consistent and slowly improving  type whose action suggests he may be better on ground less quick than he encountered there) .

While I think Jallota is quite big at 10/1, there is a worry he may have been overraced lately. Of slightly more interest is Andhesontherun at 16/1+. After staying on well over Sandown’s stiff 5 behind Rizeena, it wasnt entirely surprising to see them go too fast for him in the Windsor Castle at Ascot, but he still wasnt beaten far on the ‘wrong’ side of the track. This 6 furlong trip looks much better and I feel he is about double the price he really should be here.

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3.15 The Goodwood Cup is wide open and I can make a case for nearly everything here. Nothing appealing as a betting proposition

3.45 Lady Cecil’s Wild Coco may well outclass these but taking close to Evens on her well being first time up doesnt appeal. Instead a small each way on last year’s second Jehannedarc is recommended. Perfectly willing to excuse her last run on ground that was too fast – here it should suit better and the trip holds no worries. 11/1 ew with  1/4 1st 3 is out there and worth taking some of.

 

Good luck once more!

 

Paul

 
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Posted by on July 31, 2013 in Uncategorized

 

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