Tuesday has ‘Good to Soft’ as the expected ground but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s riding nearer to Good given the weather forecast
The weather has certainly been fine over the last few days as this interesting PR shot that appeared today testifies….
Short but sweet – here’s the selections with some already covered in the Preview blog 1.30 Already covered in the Preview, I’m happy to see some 9/2 available for Altior and the best option is to go with Paddy Power who offer 1/5th odds a place 1234. The extra place offered counts for a lot Recommendation 2pts ew ALTIOR @9/2 (Paddy Power)
2.10
Douvan looks an exceptional novice and given a clear round it will be a shock if he’s beaten. Odds of 2/5 reflect this and with now only 7 runners there isn’t really an each way angle to play with. Vaniteux and Sizing John should be fighting it out for second from a form basis but there’s always a danger that if they try to take on the fav they could suffer for it and let the way in for one of the outsiders to jump into the frame. A race to watch but no bet for me now
2.50
Out Sam was my choice yesterday and I’ll stick with that although I won’t put him forward as a recommendation as the hoped for price of 8/1 is no longer there now. I do think he’s very well handicapped but it is in the back of my mind that he may not be streetwise enough for such a big field. It’s a very hot race with Holywell, Southfield Theatre and Morning Assembly all capable of performing well off their respective marks. Southfield Theatre would be marginally the pick of these for me from a price perspective at 20/1 with the prospect of the ground now getting close to the good he prefers
3.30Champion Hurdle
Again covered in the preview and 6/1 still there for The New one so that is where the recommendation lies.
Preview night chat seems to suggest that Sempre Medici will be held out back and ridden to place rather than win so he could be the one for anyone looking for a long priced outsider.
Sadly Old Guard didn’t make it into the race due to a muscle problem 1.5pts ew THE NEW ONE @6/1 (Betfred ¼ 123)
4.10
Covered in the preview again and the ground would seem to be coming right for Polly Peachum (and quite possibly against Vroum Vroum Mag)
Stephanie Frances is interesting at a big price. Dan Skelton has stated he’ll only run her if she gets her beloved good ground and that seems increasingly likely. The trip is a question mark but if this was a slow pace (has happened in this race before) she does have a potent turn of foot. With trailblazer Desert Queen in the field however, we are more likely to get a proper stamina test
1.5pts ew POLLY PEACHUM @13/2 (Coral ¼ 123)
4.50
No bet here. Minella Rocco looks to be plotted up for this but still has to questions to prove on jumping around this course. If I were forced to pick one it would be Measureofmydreams but I could easily make a shortlist of 7 or 8 possible winners in this tricky marathon event.
5.30
This is a handicap but with only 4lbs separating the 20 runners you would be forgiven for knowing that!
I’ve had this race in mind for Double Shuffle for some time and he’s jumped around the course with aplomb already twice this season. He’s only been raised 4 lbs for a win on ground that was probably a bit too soft for him and the surface here should suit much better. He was a decent hurdler but chasing was always going to see him in a better light and hope he can get Paddy Brennan off the scoresheet on what could be a good week for him. Enhanced place terms available here with Betfair Sportsbook if you can get on with them
Aloomomo is feared and had a nice prep over hurdles at Ascot for this. He’s ben raised 11lbs since his last chase win and may well be up to that. The ground will be quicker here than what he has won on before however. At a best price of 6/1 I think the market has him plenty short enough already. Recommendation: 1pt ew DOUBLE SHUFFLE @11/1 (Betfair Sportsbook ¼ odds 12345)
Thanks for reading and good luck!
Paul
*MIDDAY UPDATE*
Main news this morning was the almost nonchalant aanouncement that Vautour would head for the Ryanair on Thursday instead of Friday’s Gold Cup by the owner (last week he was quoted as ‘Gold Cup’ or nothing). This will have sent the Ryanair market into disarray. It’s good news for Cue Card supporters like myself and I imagine that Smad Place backers will take most heart from this announcement. That one is now far more likely to get the uncontested lead he seems to enjoy (Road to Riches could possibly keep him company)
As for today’s bets. Unfortunately the blog went up just last night after Pricewise (Tom Segal) put up his selections which included Double Shuffle in the last. Consequently the odds weren’t around for long on that. The 9/2 on Altior has gone but I’m surprised to see that Polly Peachum has gone out to 15/2 with some firms (giving 15/8 on the place despite that being no higher than 11/8 on exchange place only markets). This is largely due to strong support for the favourite Vroum Vroum Mag.
In the 2.50 Out Sam has hit the desired 8/1 price with a few firms and with 5 places available that is now an extra bet for the blog.
Recommendation
1pt ew OUT SAM @8/1 1/4 12345 (Bet 365, Bet Victor)
Day 1 selections summary
2pts ew ALTIOR @9/2
1pt ew OUT SAM @8/1
1.5 pts ew THE NEW ONE @6/1
1.5 pts ew POLLY PEACHUM @13/2 (15/2 now available)
1 pt ew DOUBLE SHUFFLE @11/1
Total stakes on day 14 pts
Wednesday preview will be online this evening – hopefully before the Pricewise beast is unleashed this time!
The blog has had to take a lengthy holiday due to work commitments but is back for the big week of the year – the Cheltenham Festival – where it’s had most success over the past couple of years.
I’ll put up some quick previews for each day the night before – starting on Monday.
Here are my early thoughts on some of the selections I am already with over the 4 day period.
I won’t put up a staking plan on these today – merely selections. In many cases, I think there may be more value to be had on the day when prices and place terms are often more enhanced. Generally speaking if a horse is 4/1 or more and ¼ odds 123 or more are available I will probably be playing each way – less than 4/1 and it’ll be win only (there will always be a few exceptions but I will detail those if we come to them)
The ones listed below are the ones I’d be more inclined to be using for angles in multiple bets (doubles, trebles,etc).over the week ahead. A staking plan will be added to the daily blog to analyse profit/loss over the 4 days.
Do always check the place terms if betting now – ¼ odds a place should be widely available next week on most races. Some bookies have already reduced the riskier each way races to 1/5th odds. This makes mathematical sense but it would be no surprise to see them revert next week to be more competitive and lure in more bets.
Onto the week ahead and the early selections….
Ground will hold sway on some of these. At the moment the course is reported as soft but with drying conditions likely over the next few days I’m largely assuming the ground will be good to soft on Tuesday with prospect of it getting better still as the week progresses.
TUESDAY (48 hour declarations due out later today which may cause market movements)
1.30 Supreme Novices A lot of ups and downs in the market here recently with doubt concerning the participation of Yorkhill. Right now it looks like he will be running in Wednesday’s Neptune instead. Willie Mullins/Rich Ricci have won this with favourites Vautour and Douvan for the past two years and Min is a shorter price currently than both of those two. That doesn’t mean he is as good and on what he has achieved he is too short. He is a free going sort who has won his races easily so far this season but beaten nothing of the calibre he meets here. The preliminaries are a concern to connections. I’m much more taken by second fav Altior, who has also displayed keenness in his racing earlier this season but still found plenty of reserves to win his first couple of races. He has winning form on the course – it wasn’t impressive in beating Maputo but that was a very tactical and slow run race. He was much better of a better pace at Kempton over Christmas. I feel he will thrive here off a strong gallop and with the uphill finish and he should be favourite. He probably wouldn’t want to ground too soft but as long as it dries out as expected I’ll be cheering him on
Stablemate Buveur D’Air hasn’t faced any strong opposition this season. He has closely matched form with Altior in bumpers last season but that’s hard to take at face value now. He appeared then as a strong travelling type who didn’t finish of his races quite as well as others and I wonder whether the hill might find him out here. He may prefer the ground to stay soft also Supasundae has been well talked up at preview nights as an each way bet. Henry de Bromhead doesn’t waste his runners here but this one has to improve his jumping and didn’t get home up the hill in the Bumper here last season after running freely early on. At a Dublin preview on Thursday, Gordon Elliott was asked if punters should back his Tombstone each way for this race. He replied ‘no’ which doesn’t augur well for that one’s chances! Selection : ALTIOR ew at 4/1 or better with ¼ odds 123
2.50 Ultima Hcap This seems to be the desired race for Warren Greatrex’s Out Sam who has somehow got into the Festival with a mark of 139. The form of his last comfortable win at Newbury makes that mark stand out as being highly lenient and if 8/1 is available still it’s hard not to have some interest. This race will be completely different – a big field racing against seasoned handicappers rather than novices. However this race often favours both novices and light weights (he should be carrying 10st 2lbs if weights don’t rise) Southfield Theatre would be of interest at a bigger price given his previous Festival record. He hasn’t shown much this season but needs decent ground to show his best. The vibes from Ditcheat are that he is coming back to form but I’m not sure if the ground will have dried up for him sufficiently by Tuesday. Selection; OUT SAM ew at 8/1
3.30 CHAMPION HURDLE A wide open race since the defection of Faugheen and Arctic Fire. Annie Power is too short a price for me considering her original aim was the Mares Hurdle and she has come in as a late replacement for Faugheen’s owner Rich Ricci. She looked a possible runner two years ago but was diverted to the World Hurdle instead. When it looked likely she would run in the Champion she was no shorter than The New One and My Tent or Yours. There’s no evidence she has progressed since so the disparity in odds against those two is a little strange to me. My Tent or Yours probably has the most talent but hasn’t run for a long time and that’s a major concern for a horse who has had a problem settling. Twice he has finished second at the Festival after his early exertions have left him vulnerable to a stronger stayer up the hill. The New One appeals most at current prices. He wasn’t suited by a tactical pace last year and had an interrupted preparation. The year before he was an unlucky loser after being badly hampered early in the race. He is effective on the course though – the way he accelerated up the hill to win the Neptune in 2013 shouldn’t be forgotten. Jumping has always been a bit of an issue with this horse but he can really come up this hill well and this is the easiest opportunity to win a Champion Hurdle he will ever get. (Nice pointer for the form of the stable with Flying Angel winning the Imperial Cup yesterday) Nichols Canyon probably has the best form this year and he could get an easy lead up front (Camping Ground the only other possible front runner by my reckoning). I’m not convinced he acted on the course here last year though and wonder if he needs a flatter track as his form at Aintree afterwards looked much better. At bigger odds, I much prefer Old Guard who has improved a lot this year and has plenty of winning course form. The better the ground is the more I give him a chance. I wouldn’t take his Kempton form literally – wrong track and ground too soft. He holds Sempre Medici and Hargam on earlier Cheltenham form. An issue developed here at the Sandown Park preview last night when trainer Paul Nicholls said his latest piece of work had been ‘dire’. I was going to add him as a second selection but best to wait for further news emanating on his well-being for now Sempre Medici has been put up as an each way bet by several judges at preview meetings. It seems he may be ridden quietly out the back and aiming for a place more than a win. Similar types have been placed before so it wouldn’t be the biggest shock for him to hit the frame Selection: THE NEW ONE ew at 6/1 or better
***Sunday evening update – Old Guard withdrawn from race due to muscle problem***
4.10 Mares Hurdle Team Mullins has had a stranglehold on this race for several years. Vroum Vroum Mag is their short priced favourite this time. She’s won a lot of mares races very easily but for me has yet to do anything to suggest that she is a 160 type of horse as her price suggests – her actual rating is 154 and not that far ahead of anything else in the race ( no course form for her either) I much prefer another Henderson second fav, Polly Peachum, who looks a really solid each way at around 6/1 The more the ground dries out the better for her and she was narrowly beaten in this race last year when rated 155 (now dropped to 149). The ground was far too soft for her when she still managed to beat The Govaness at Sandown (latter an obvious non stayer behind Vroum Vroum Mag at Ascot so wouldn’t be taking that as a collateral form line). She is capable of a higher level than that and is proven over the course There wouldn’t be much to choose between Polly Peachum and Bitofapuzzle on last year’s form but the latter (if she runs) comes here from a couple of disappointing chasing efforts and apparently has had breathing problems. The selection goes off to the paddocks after this race so am very hopeful she can end her jumping career on a high. Selection: POLLY PEACHUM ew at 6/1 with ¼ odds 123
WEDNESDAY
1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle I haven’t seen a better novice hurdler than Yanworth this season. He’s not a great price now but will be shocked if he is beaten such has been his superiority against decent opposition in his last two victories. Earlier in the season his jumping technique was in need of polishing up but the work on that seems to have paid off and I can’t find any negatives. One of the weeks bankers Selection; YANWORTH win
4.50 Fred Winter Hurdle There seem to be a lot of potential plots here in this competitive handicap for 4yo hurdlers. The handicapper might have scuppered the chances of Campeador who was an early talking horse. I attended a preview in Dublin on Thursday where there were subtle hints that Missy Tata was well fancied before Gordon Elliott put her up as his charity bet. The one I most want to be with though is Paul Nicholls’ Diego du Charmil who there has been a strong whisper for over the last couple of weeks and is now fav. This race used to have a strong stat favouring highly rated flat horses but things have changed a little in the last couple of years with Nicholls having success with unexposed French breds like this one. He has supposedly been doing very well on the gallops with much higher rated types and has been saved for this. He could be very well in here – it’s hard to judge him on his French form but his second in this race linked below looks to show a horse that had plenty more to offer….
There are a couple of others at much bigger odds I also have my eye on but will wait until the day for those. For now the selection is DIEGO DU CHARMIL ew 7/1 or better
THURSDAY
Not looking the strongest of the four days for me and will largely leave this until the night before THISTLECRACK has very little negatives in the World Hurdle at 3.30 except a very small concern if the ground has become good by that time. He should be odds on and would be if he were trained by someone like Mullins. In the new Mares Novice Hurdle at 4.50, SMART TALK appears a solid ew proposition. She’s improving with every race and would have won with a lot more in hand last time but for a blunder in the home straight. She could be up against a very classy recruit in short priced favourite Limini but that one does have some questions to answer with her jumping. Her flat race class could carry her through but I’d be surprised if Smart Talk was out of the frame so an each way bet appears far better value
***Sunday evening update. 3rd fav Myska withdrawn from Mares Novice Hurdle. 6/1 really shouldn’t be lasting on Smart Talk now if 1/4 odds 123 are available, An each way bet becomes even better value if you can get those odds and place terms***
FRIDAY
1.30 Triumph Hurdle I believe the strongest trial for this may have been run over this course in January event though it probably didn’t throw up the right result at the time. Who Dares Wins and Clan Des Obeaux finished 4th and 2nd respectively (behind Protek Des Flos) but these two started racing each other a very long way out on some very sticky ground. They paid for those efforts up the hill but in so doing kept themselves at attractive odds. If the ground were soft on Friday I’d be inclined to be with Clan Des Obeaux who has the look of a future high class chaser. However, with conditions likely to be quicker, I have to be with Alan King’s Who Dares Wins. He was too keen early on in that Cheltenham race and had to make the running. He still came out as marginally the best horse in the race as was giving away weight all round. On better ground and with a faster pace to come off, this decent ex-Flat racer should be a much better proposition.
It seems possible that Richard Johnson will ride given comments at Sandown last night. Alan King knows how to win this race and I think he will be the stable’s number one here on better ground over Sceau Royal. Zubayr has to be feared after his win at Kempton recently – the same route taken by recent winners Zarkandar and Soldatino. He appeals more than Ivanovich Gorbatov who didn’t jump well enough last time at Leopardstown and is an awful price on that form Selection; WHO DARES WINS ew 12/1 or better
3.30 Gold Cup The highlight of the Festival and I think Kempton’s King George result is by far the strongest piece of form to go on here. It’s debatable whether Don Cossack would have won that day if he had stayed up at the second last but I do question his effectiveness over this course given his previous record here (3rd and fell) That leaves Vautour and Cue Card. Vautour was outstayed that day but is expected to be fitter this time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win but reports of a lack lustre gallop recently aren’t encouraging. The stamina question over further and with an uphill finish to contend with remain. On the plus side it’s hard to forget how he came right at the Festival last year with a spectacular win in the JLT. I’m firmly in the Cue Card camp for this race to pick up a fairytale win and secure a £1 million bonus fund in the process. Given his breeding (dam Wicked Crack as a very good stayer) it was always a surprise to see him display so much speed when he burst onto the Festival scene winning the Bumper in 2010. He was one of the stars to develop from a stellar year of novice hurdlers in 2011 and got another Festival success in the 2013 Ryanair. He is a proven Festival performer.
Cue Card lost his way last year but after a breathing operation has come back a completely revitalised horse. He no longer runs freely out at front and can be settled comfortably off the pace – he now looks the stayer his breeding promised him to be. In Paddy Brennan he has found a new partner and they look to be a match made in heaven. His Kempton win proved he was back at the top of his game but I believe he can be better than that. His jumping there wasn’t as good as it can be and all of his best form has been on left handed courses like Cheltenham I’m taking him to beat off a strong Irish challenger. Don Poli is some way behind these on form but is a bit deceiving as he is the sort who keeps on winning by doing just enough. That is an admirable trait but I think he may lack some pace against others here on what is likely to be decent ground on Friday. In much softer conditions, he would be one to fear more
Selection; CUE CARD ew 5/1 or better
The blog will be back during the week with updates and quick race-by-race synopsis
Thanks for reading and good luck to all over the week ahead with whatever you back
Paul
(comments always appreciated)
Some useful links
To compare odds with all firms I use (though check individual websites as changes don’t always come instantaneously) http://www.oddschecker.com
The blog has had a bit of a holiday of late. I’ve found it hard to get an edge on many occasions on the Flat this year and have largely been waiting for the National Hunt season to re-emerge properly. It’s my first suggested bet of the new jumps season which prompts an entry on the blog with a race of ante post interest this weekend. The main focus for jumps fans may well be the return of some top class chasers in Wetherby’s Charlie Hall chase but it’s a race at Ascot that takes my interest far more. The William Hill Hcap Hurdle at 250 is the race and it’s the place terms offered at this stage that made me sit up a bit more when seeing initial prices come out.
Considering only 18 runners are left engaged at the 5 day stage I was a little surprised to see all but a couple of firms offering ¼ odds 1234 for this race. I’ll be mightily surprised after the usual fallout there are still 16 runners there at the final declaration stage – so the chance to take the first four places may not be around for too long. Last year’s easy winner Sign of a Victory returns with a stone higher handicap mark and shares early favouritism. If he gets the same ground conditions he may well take a hand but his form did take a nosedive last year once he encountered slower ground. Ascot’s current forecast predicts rain this week – chiefly on Wednesday and Friday – so I would be erring caution in getting involved with him too early. It’s also a little disconcerting that his connections put him through the Doncaster sales ring in May and he was led out unsold. Sharing favouritism is John Ferguson’s Nabucco. Like so many of his charges, this one was once very useful on the flat (Listed class and reaching a career high mark of 109). He’s only had three runs over hurdles and his last two wins at short odds on tell us very little to judge on whether he has kept enough ability to make light of his opening handicap mark. His debut run over hurdles behind Cardinal Palace doesn’t really make him look that well in but he could well have improved since. This is far more competitive than anything he has faced so far over timber so until he really proves himself in this sphere, I find him poor value at current odds. Even harder to judge is Paul Nicholls’ Urubu D’Irlande who has only one run (and win) over hurdles to his name. The fact that he hasn’t run for nearly a year does suggest he has had problems since then and his experience over jumps would again be a worry. Urubu D’Irlande did make all in his only hurdles run and if he turns up on Saturday he looks one of the few runners who will be happy to lead. There is one obvious contender for the front running role though and it is primarily this that makes Rayvin Black my selection for this race. Grand National winning trainer Oliver Sherwood improved this one from a mark of 119 to a high of 135 last year and he first came to prominence when making all in a decent handicap at Sandown in January. He again impressed with slick jumping up front when trying to follow up at Ascot after that but found the extra half mile trip too far then. Returning to 2 miles his best effort came in Sandown’s Imperial Cup when fending off all bar Ebony Empress close home. I think that race was if anything a bit more competitive than what he might be facing this coming Saturday. A disappointing run at Haydock at the end of the season seemed to confirm that Rayvin Black should be kept to right-handed tracks. He reappeared two weeks ago at Kempton but could never have really hoped to outrun a horse like The New One from the front. The trainer reports on his website that the effort did enough to ‘blow the cobwebs off’ though and I hope that will make him cherry ripe for Saturday.
The forecast rain will definitely be to this one’s advantage. While I am not linked to connections to confirm he is a definite runner, the fact that regular rider Thomas Garner (he can claim his 3lb allowance here unlike at Kempton) is already listed as riding him on the Racing Post website has to be a bonus. The most likely danger currently in my eyes would be recent Market Rasen scorer, Cloonacool. This one hasn’t been dealt harshly with only a 4 lb raise for that success. He moved up to take the lead very smoothly there and considering he seems to be the type who doesn’t do much when he hits the front, he is probably value for a good bit more than he won by. He too is already ‘jocked up’ and would seem a likely runner. While that last win was on good ground, this one also has decent form on softer so the forecast may be immaterial in his case. A slight concern would be that Paddy Brennan seemed to suggest that the gelding would prefer smaller fields after that race. Connections will be hoping the race cuts up very badly if that is the case! Nevertheless, I wouldn’t put anyone off taking a pretty fair 10/1 on this one as a back-up bet (am sure he would be a fair bit shorter if the trainer was better known)
Selection 0.75 pts ew Rayvin Black – Take 20/1 with BetVictor, Paddy Power or 888 who currently offer 4 places (note that Corals are only paying first 3)
A great triumph for Yorkshire on Day 3 of the Ebor Festival with Meccas Angel grabbing the headlines in the Nunthorpe.
I did wonder if the ground would be soft enough for her beforehand but crucially is had no jar in it and it didn’t inhibit her.
What the ground will be like tomorrow will largely depend on if rain arrives overnight. This evening the Met Office suggest a 50% chance of it for a few hours in the early hours.
This will make the difference between it staying slightly on the dead side or it drying out to good decent ground.
The opening race on Friday (run over a slightly shorter trip than Saturday’s Ebor) was dominated by prominent racers. The first three home were in the first 5 turning for home. However, they were following a relatively sedate early pace so we can’t really take this as an indication of what will happen tomorrow. Hold-up horses came good in later races when the pace was stronger.
Onto tomorrow’s big race the Ebor Handicap at 3.45 These big handicaps are never going to be easy but I do have a love for the longer distance ones and the Ebor is my favourite one of the year. It’s been won by some great favourites over the years – Sea Pigeon, Further Flight, Sergeant Cecil and Quick Ransom my favouries in descending order. The complexion of the race has changed greatly in recent years. We just don’t get low weighted horses any more and there’s very little gap between top and bottom weight these days. Tomorrow there is only 9lbs separating top and bottom. This makes it much harder for the handicap ‘good things’ to get into the race and makes for a much more competitive and trickier to solve event. A low draw used to be a big advantage when the field would come down the far side of the straight. Now that most races end up in the middle it’s much less of a handicap. I still wouldn’t say a high draw is ideal – particularly for a hold-up style of ride. It probably proved the undoing of favourite Pallasator last year who ended up too far out of his ground from stall 22.
. The outside berth this year is occupied by the sole 3yo in the race – Aidan O’Brien’s Fields of Athenry. This one vies for favouritism but I’m not sure he deserves to be as short as he is. 3 year olds don’t run in this race much in recent years. Because of the conditions and the allowances they get they need such a high handicap rating to get into the race. Back in the 20th century some classy 3yos like Clerkenwell, Sapience and Protection Racket were good winners who subsequently proved themselves at Group level (the latter won the Irish St Leger in the same season) But they won carrying 7 st 11lb, 8st 4lbs and 8st 1lbs respectively. The last 3yo to win was from the O’Brien stable in 2001. Mediterranean carried 8st 4lbs to victory then with a rating of 101. Since the 2002 renewal and the changing of the race there have been only three more three year olds competing – all from the O’Brien stable:
All 3 ran very well and then went on to contest the St Leger. Honolulu went off 13/8 fav for the Leger on the back of his fine run and came home 3rd. Fields of Athenry is being asked to carry 9st 8lbs with his rating of 118 – a good deal more than any of these. He does have a 5lb claimer on board but that still gives him a bit of a mountain to climb. While he looks a stayer and shouldn’t mind any cut in the ground, his form doesn’t really equate to the rating he has. His last win was beating a horse rated 21lbs lower at level weights by about 2 lengths. 3 starts ago he failed to give 22lbs to Botany Bay – a horse who runs in the 2.35 earlier as a big outsider with a rating of 85. This, and his other form tends to make me think his rating shouldn’t be any higher than about 105. I think the handicapper has given him a bit of a raw deal It would be foolish to ignore that the O’Brien stable hope completely but history suggests to me that he will find one or two too good. I’m also a little concerned that the Coolmore partners sold him earlier this week. If they did harbour serious St Leger claims with him would they have done that??
. Challenging for favouritism is the Willie Mullins/Frankie Dettori combo on Clondaw Warrior (also part owned by Ruby Walsh) who creeps into a race at the bottom after the withdrawal of Quest for More this morning. This combination struck with Max Dynamite on Friday and are bound to be popular picks.He’s 10 lbs higher than when successful at Royal Ascot over a much further trip. Both him and the second Fun Mac (4lbs better off for half a length ) came from near last that day suggesting they had gone a bit too fast up front. That was run on faster ground than they’ll get here. On the face of it, Fun Mac could reverse the form on these terms but I have a feeling he may be less suited of the pair by the likely slower ground tomorrow. If he does cope with it then 14/1 Fun Mac is much better value than 6/1 Clondaw Warrior but I am swayed against both. They would both need to be ridden a bit more prominently in this race for me and I’m not sure that Ascot form is the strongest guide to this race.
. Willie Mullins also runs Wicklow Brave at around 10/1 but this horse is a complete enigma to me. When he’s good (as he showed at the Cheltenham Festival) he’s very very good…but when he’s bad he’s awful! He just seems to need everything to go right for him and I couldn’t back such a horse at such a short price. Added to that I think he could be a very tricky ride for a 7lb claimer. His form is largely over jumps and has so little flat form that it’s hard to judge whether his mark of 102 is good or bad. If he does win I would hope that Stewards have an enquiry to find out the reason for any improvement from his latest two runs.
. In his last race, Wicklow Brave was running over hurdles and well down the field behind Quick Jack. Tony Martin has already trained a winner this week and this one is 3rd in the market at around 7/1.
For me, Quick Jack should be favourite. He’s on his highest ever mark on the flat of 101 but has been relatively lightly raced over the past 2 seasons and could still have some improvement in him. Stamina seemed to find him out when he looked likely to win the Cesarewitch last season. He won his last race easily and before that there was no disgrace in failing to beat subsequent Ascot Gold Cup hero Trip to Paris at Chester. There are far less chinks in his armour – ground should be no problem for him if it rains or not – and I am struggling to see him out of the frame.
. Elsewhere, Astronereus is a thoroughly likeable individual whose consistency has seen him rise to a mark of 107 from 93 this season. He doesn’t seem to know how to run a bad race but he’s faced a lot of rivals already this season and formlines tie him too closely with many others for me. Ajman Bridge, Notarised, John Reel, Excellent Result, Arab Dawn (stamina and ground questions on this one)and Watersmeet are all linked on runs this season.
. I prefer to seek out something that isn’t quite so exposed on its mark and Arabian Comet fits that bill (put up as recommendation last night). This trip looks ideal for her as long as there is a decent pace. She’s been given two pretty bad rides from the back at Goodwood this season and it’s no surprise to see Graham Lee replace Pat Cosgrave on board after his last debacle. She was narrowly beaten at this meeting last year and being by Dubawi I would expect her to be still improving – she just hasn’t had the chances to show it this season yet. Good ground seems to suit her fine – I’m not sure whether she was less suited by softer ground at Doncaster last season – or if she was just over the top by then. What we do know is that the William Haggas stable is in fine form this week so I was happy to get involved at 20/1.
. Pace of the race will be a big factor tomorrow and the key horse here is Notarised who does like to bowl along up front. Silvestre De Sousa would probably like to control things from there and if his lead was uncontested he could probably do so. However, I think he will be kept honest up front by John Reel in stall 2 – and possibly by stablemate Watersmeet – so am inclined to think that there won’t be an early crawl in the race.
. I will give a mention to two others. Wadi Al Hatawi has never been beaten on his first starts of the season and on his last win at York he would be a contender. The problem is that is the only time he seems to win and we have to wonder if he performs best when fresh. Nearly Caught wasn’t far behind Quick Jack in last year’s Cesarewitch and ran a fine third in the Northumberland Plate behind Quest for More and Max Dynamite. He was 8th in this race last year when staying on strongly at the finish. If the ground remains on the soft side and there is some overnight rain it will definitely suit him (it was a bit too quick for him here last year) I find him tempting at 20/1 but if that price is still around in the morning after showers have been declared I’ll be having a saver for sure.
Selections Quick Jack 1.5 pts ew @7/1 (BetVictor, Corals, Betfair Sportsbook..later pay out on first 5 if you can get on with them) Arabian Comet already recommended 0.75 pts ew @20/1 (and keep an eye on the going for Nearly Caught in the morning!)
Elsewhere the 2.35 is even more competitive than the Ebor but I’ve been waiting for King Bolete to get away from fast ground and will be supporting at 14/1. He just took an age to quicken up at Haydock last time when strongly supported. I think he needs good ground or slightly softer and the extra 2 furlongs should also help. Luca Cumani is always very positive about this horse on his website and I suspect he’s thought of as a 100+ performer going forward.
A very short post for Day 3 of the York Ebor meeting I’m afraid with my time available.
It’s a tricky meeting to assess so far. Day 1 strongly favoured prominent racers but after only 2mm of rain on Wednesday night the ground had livened up a little (although still slightly on the soft side of good). Despite a tailwind this seemed enough to give the hold-up performers much more of a chance on Thursday’s card.
With little rain forecast it could well be genuinely good ground by tomorrow.
There are no recommendations for me on Friday’s card but an early one is given for Saturday. The races are generally too competitive and I’m struggling to see any value.
My thoughts for the main race of the day – the Nunthorpe Stakes at 3.40:
A large 20 runner field with some strong early pace likely on both sides. Justineo (stall 1), Cotai Glory (8), Take Cover (19) and Stepper Point (20) are the likely early trailblazers. I’d still be a little concerned that there may be some dead ground in the first couple of furlongs on the stands side which could favour the pace coming from the lower draws. That should favour the favourite Acapulco in box 4. The American 2yo – who more closely resembles a 4yo – was a Royal Ascot sensation when she ran away with the Queen Mary. Wesley Ward’s filly was physically some way ahead of her rivals then and although up against her elders then she has a huge weight allowance on her side in this event to counteract that. I’m sure she is on a similar level to previous 2yo winners of this race (Kingsgate Native was a similar type) and is definitely the one to beat in my mind. The ground may have been a bit of a worry a few days ago but it seems to be coming back in her favour. Her American pedigree wouldn’t have screamed out that she would be suited by cut but it should be noted that No Nay Never (probably the best known progeny of Scat Daddy to race on these shores in recent years) did win on Good to Soft in France as a 2yo. It’s probably more of a concern for me that she is ridden by a jockey with no experience of English tracks. If the ground does still look to be on the soft side then I’m quite sure that Mecca’s Angel would be the main danger. The more it dries out the less she is favoured though. It’s unlikely to get fast enough for Goldream or the veteran Sole Power. I had an ante post interest at a very big price on Line of Reason after his Goodwood effort (would have been much closer but for being drawn on wrong side of the track). Likewise he needs fast ground though and so I have almost written that bet off now. Muthmir won that Goodwood race but he’s plenty short enough for me now on the overall level of his form this season. The sensational strike rate of his trainer William Haggas this week should keep his price low. Acapulco is the selection but not a strong one given the low price of around 2/1 in such a big field where traffic problems could be an issue.
Elsewhere on the card I’m a little surprised to see Brian Meehan’s Perkunas chalked up at around 8/1 in the 4.20. This is often a hot 2yo maiden and there look to be several decent types entered here. Meehan did make a point of saying he considered this one as his best chance of the week on Channel 4 last weekend and continues to be very positive about him on his website. His 2yos generally improve a lot on their debuts and Perkunas showed plenty of promise on his. I expected him to be shorter given the obvious heads up we have been given.
I’ll be back to focus on my favourite handicap race of the year, Saturday’s Ebor, tomorrow Arabian Comet is my early recommendation which I will expand on more tomorrow.
She has been given some pretty mediocre rides this season by Pat Cosgrave and now that Graham Lee is taking over I think she is overpriced at a general 20/1 given the excellent form of the Haggas stable
Recommendation 0.75pts ew Arabian Comet 20/1 (generally available)
A fairly extraordinary result with a 50/1 shock winner in the big race on the first day of the Ebor Festival.
Overnight rain had made the ground dead and that undoubtedly contributed to Arabian Queen’s victory. She did however have something in common with almost every leading performer on Tuesday in that she was never too far from the pace. The only ‘hold-up’ runner to do well came in the 5th race where Tony Martin’s Heartbreak City broke the day’s rules. It makes me wonder just how ‘well-in’ that Irish raider was and it would be no surprise to see him win again off a much higher mark.
With more rain forecast overnight we could be in for more of the same tomorrow and the ground may well soften up a bit more.
In expectation of similar conditions here are my brief thoughts for Thursday’s card.
1.55Tasleet is the form horse here for sure but plenty short enough in price considering he has to give weight to most of the field. Orvar displayed some wayward tendencies in front last time which would be off-putting. Excessable was expected to win at Newbury last time but after looking the likely winner he ultimately faded on what was possibly the wrong side of the track. He is the most interesting of the bigger prices for me but I am concerned that he is more of a 5 furlong type and this could stretch him on the ground. No bet
2.30
I think Easton Angel was unfortunate to come up against an equine freak in Acapulco at Royal Ascot but still gave her some stern competition there. Hardly anything went right for her next time up at Newmarket where Paul Mulrennan made all the wrong choices as to which route to take – being carried across the track in the process. Besharah reversed Ascot form with her there but I think she can make the score 2-1 in her favour here. The ease in the ground should not be an issue – she has won on the soft already. She seemed to get the 6 furlongs well enough at Newmarket so this easier course should be fine – so hopefully she can be kept fairly handy.
Both Besharah and Easton Angel have been priced as if they have another monster to deal with in Lumiere here. Mark Johnston’s filly won a fairly ordinary Newmarket maiden with any amount in hand and her price is based on a huge home reputation. She has yet to prove herself at this level though and the ground is another unknown. She could prove up to the hype and win but based on what she has done on the racecourse she must be a ludicrously short priced favourite at around 6/4.
Ashadihan is a nice type and shouldn’t mind the ground but I can’t help but think she may get outpaced by the main contenders at this level and is crying out for 7 furlongs. Recommendation:
Look for firms paying ¼ odds 123 here rather than 1/5th 2pts ew Easton Angel @9/2 (365, Skybet, Stan James)
3.05David O’Meara is invariably one to keep on side of in these big handicaps but he doesn’t help matters by sending 8 runners here! Stable jockey Danny Tudhope plumps for He’s No Saint but as that one has no form on slower ground, I wonder if the choice was made when it looked like quicker ground would prevail. The stable’s number 2 jockey, Sam James, is on Russian Realm and that’s the one I’m sticking with at a big price. A son of a 1,000 Guineas winner, this one has taken some time to find his form with his new stable. He finally got a win on the board as soon as he got some softer ground last time and with similar conditions likely again I give him a big chance here. I can understand some early money for You’re Fired who has decent course form and will be glad to steer away from quick ground also. However his hold-up style is a bit of a concern given how races panned out on Wednesday.
Recommendation: 0.75pts ew Russian Realm 16/1 (generally available)
3.40 The Yorkshire Oaks is the days big race but I will most likely be swerving the race with many of the main contenders not really proven on softer surfaces. I may look again tomorrow here and update if necessary then.
4.20A tricky race for fillies – many of whom are likely to be still improving. The most interesting contender for me is John Gosden’s Bright Approach. She was never going to cut much ice over an inadequate trip in a Group 1 race last time. Now she’s back on a slow surface – the first time since her maiden win as a 3yo –and over her proper trip, II wouldn’t be surprised to see why connections kept her in training at 4. Recommendation 0.5pts ew Bright Approach 12/1 (generally available)
4.55 A fillies handicap but there are two likely types contesting it who looked destined for a higher level than this. Unfortunately the markets seem only too aware of this and Mistrusting and Spangled are both too short a price for me – especially as both are unproven on soft going
A blank day for me on Wednesday so hoping for better fortune today
Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back
Paul
The blog returns for possibly my favourite Flat meeting of the year – York’s Ebor Festival.
As with last year it’s been hard work to get ahead on the Flat season. Uncertain ground (not helped by some courses being a bit too keen with their watering policies) is a constant issue I keep coming back to – throw in the added complication of draws and it makes analysis no easier sometimes.
I’m certainly finding it harder to get an edge on flat racing these days and am already looking forward to when the jumps return at a good level later this year.
As it was one of the closest tracks for me to visit in my youth, York (the ‘Ascot of the North’), always holds fond memories and is one of the big meetings where I will be hoping that more competitive pricing can give out some value.
As a course, it has its quirks that should be noted. In the past, a low draw in longer races was advantageous when most races remained on the far rail in the home straight. In recent years however this draw bias has been less important as the field often heads for the middle of the track instead.
The sprints over 5 and 6 furlongs could produce winners from all sides but since drainage work was done a few years ago, there do seem to be some channels of ground that are worse than others. I don’t see that many races won on the rails anymore – particularly on the stands side (and consequently a very high draw in big sprints can be a slight negative in my mind)
It’s also a track which did use to favour prominent runners more – although again this factor may be lessened by the racing taking place in the centre of the track. That ‘concertina’ effect can cause some unfortunate traffic problems for hold-up horses though so I’d still prefer something to be sitting not too far from the pace when they turn for home in the longer events
Wednesday’s opening day has one bet for me but first a quick say on the day’s showpiece event – one which should be the highlight of the week and maybe of the season. 3.40 Juddmonte International It’s very rare we will see a Derby winner and a 2,000 Guineas winner from the same year taking each other on in a race. The fact that neither of them have been first past the post in every race of their careers to date mean that at least one will taste defeat for the first time. John Gosden’s Golden Horn was the Epsom Derby victor and upheld that form in Sandown’s Eclipse when proving too good for the reopposing 4yo The Grey Gatsby (2nd in this race last year).
He had to make his own pace there which made the win all the more meritorious. This time he has a pacemaker in Dick Doughtywylie. Add front running filly Arabian Queen into the equation and we should for once have a top class race this season where we can guarantee a good gallop from the start. It’s hard to find negatives about this horse and with trip, ground and pace all looking ideal for him, he deserves his place at the head of the betting. Supporters of The Grey Gatsby will be hoping he can do better on a course he has performed so well at before (lets not forget that Golden Horn won the Dante here easily though). He certainly may not have to take the race quite so early to Golden Horn as he did at Sandown and I would expect him to be challenging late on the scene. Strictly speaking it’s hard to see him turning the form around but he could profit from others battling too early here and pick up some pieces The likely strong pace will be there to seek out stamina limitations in Aidan O’Brien’s 2000 Guineas victor, Gleneagles. He’s yet to race over more than a mile which at the time of his Classic win seemed to be suggested as his ideal trip. His sister Marvellous showed her best form over a mile but looked not to stay 12 furlongs. She never tried todays trip of 10 furlongs so we can’t really gain much from that. Gleneagles’ sire Galileo is a stamina influence but his dam was best at sprint trips. He will get his desired ground and will be a tough opponent if his stamina holds but I just have a couple of niggling worries here aside from that.
He was pulled out of the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood far too early for my liking (excuse of soft ground given – it had dried out by day of the race) and I just wonder if all was 100% with him. He’s also without the services of injured Ryan Moore now. Joseph O’Brien resumes the ride he had last year but I’m afraid I just don’t rate in him in the same class as Moore on these big occasions when the difference between winning and losing can be so fine. There is a fourth major player here though. Royal Ascot winner Time Test was immensely impressive in a fast time there and deserves his step up to this stage. It really is anyone’s guess as to how good this one is and he’s the real dark one of the race who could well have the ability to surprise the Classic winners.
The likely fastish ground is probably going to be against Aussie hope Criterion. He showed at Ascot that he’s a few lengths below this class on quick ground and all reports suggest he needs a softer surface to bring his A game into play. It’s a fascinating race in which I would be struggling to pick out the winner with any great conviction. The prices on offer are about right for me and so I won’t be getting involved but just watching the race. If 8 runners do line up for the race that means 3 places will be paid and I think there might be some each way value in The Grey Gatsby at around 12/1 then. If there is a non –runner and we go down to a field of 7, only 2 places will be paid and the value of that bet would diminish considerably
The rest of Tuesday’s card I find quite tricky. Bogart is a bit of a cliff horse for me in the opener and has place chances under what seem to be close to his optimum conditions.However, all too often he seems to fade away in the last 50 yards these days so I would need a decent double figure price with 5 places to be attracted. In the main back up race, the Great Voltigeur, at 3.05, I can make a case for all bar one of the 7 runners (Medrano needs much softer ground at this level to have any chance). I will happily pass that one by!
It’s the last race on the card where my one bet of the day is to be found. 4.55 Sir Roger Moore is one of 4 runners in the 20 strong field that has Group race entries. He is entered at Group 1 level along with Whitman and Kassia (Dream Destination has a Group 3 entry). He ran an encouraging 3rd on his debut back here in May.at the Dante meeting The winner of that race, Seastrom, hasn’t raced since and the second hasn’t really advertised the form. A few that were behind him that day have gone onto show the worth of it though. (Another Touch for instance was behind in 4th that day and was an impressive Nursery winner off a mark of 7 earlier this month). Charlie Hills colt was considered good enough to head for the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot on his next start. Not surprisingly he wasn’t good enough and his stall 1 berth did this free going sort no favours. He wasn’t able to get cover early there and wasted too much energy too early. He still finished in front of Qeyaadah though who reopposes here on 10lb worse terms here! He then dropped back in grade for a Goodwood maiden. Very little went right here but I’m quite glad that the Racing Post didn’t seem to fully notice what a horrendous passage he suffered as this probably helps with his price here. Again he was slightly keen early but Graham Gibbons soon got him settled before starting to make a run. He was then almost knocked off twice when trying to find a passage before being allowed to coast in in his own time in 8th. I think he would have gone very close to winning that race that day with more luck in running and on previous formlines his opening handicap mark of 81 could be a little lenient. In stall 6 this time, I’m hoping he can get some early cover again to get him settled early. Then given the usual luck needed in a 20 runner race I think he has an excellent chance to prevail and go some way to justifying his Group race entries. Early money for John Quinn’s Reputation suggests he could be on a lucrative mark and perhaps the biggest danger – Kassia has performed well at a better level than this but is at a disadvantage for a filly in having to give weight to the selection
(Noticeable that connections pulled out Sir Roger Moore from what looked an easy winning opportunity at Windsor on Monday night (ground excuse given) to go for this)
Recommendation:
1.5 pts ew Sir Roger Moore @14/1 (Skybet, BetVictor, Pady Power, 888)
Ladies day at Goodwood on Thursday has a couple of interesting betting opportunities for me and prompts me to write a short blog piece. (Too long for Twitter to handle)
Goodwood is a lovely course to look at or to sit and have a picnic at but its intricacies can make it a prime venue to find ‘unlucky losers’. While staying on the inside is the shortest route, gaps can be hard to come if you are on a hold-up runner.
It’s a course where Arabian Comet has shown her best form and she returns to the Lillie Langtry Stakes at 345 in which she finished a close second last year. Her reappearance run at this track this season saw her be one of those ‘unlucky losers’ when the gaps didn’t appear quite right. However that was over 12 furlongs (as was her last run when being held up behind a relatively slow pace was all against her)
She’s back over a trip that suits her very well, a course we know that suits her and the drying ground is all in her favour. In short I feel these are her optimum conditions and this is a fine chance for her to record a Group race victory.
Old rival Jordan Princess had the run of the race last time. She is probably the main danger but this trip is unknown territory and I’m not sure will be to her advantage
That bit of luck on this track will of course be needed but in a big field there really ought to be some pace in this race to make it a decent stamina test (and in so doing lessen the chances of traffic issues)
Recommendation 2pts ew Arabian Comet 3.45 Goodwood @5/1 (hills, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
*
The feature race at 3.10, The Goodwood Cup is a tight looking affair in which I can just about make a case of all of the field. I’ll be passing that by but the opener at 2.05 does have some possibilities.
In its former guise as the Extel Handicap in the 70s and 80s this used to be a breeding ground for future Group race winners. Racing History looks the most obvious type to make it to that grade. He’s still relatively unexposed and this full brother to Farrh and Basem could be somewhat better than his mark of 99.
It is the history of those two siblings that does prompt some caution though. They both started to reveal their potential at the age of 4. Racing History still looked a bit green last time and it could be that a competitive race like this might be just a bit too far at this stage.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him win but at around 7/2 I think there is more value to be had with Paul Cole’s Rotherwick.
This one tried his best to mix it with subsequent Irish Derby winner Jack Hobbs at Sandown earlier in the season. The effort almost cost him second place but I feel he could be rated better than what the bare form appears there.
At Royal Ascot he found the trip a bit sharp in the Britannia and last time at Newmarket, he was well and truly caught out by Resonant poaching a lead that couldn’t be caught. He probably should have been third but for Adam Kirby taking it a bit too easy on him close home. On revised terms I think he has every chance to reverse form with Resonant and the second Gibeon (also raced more prominently as seemed to be advantageous that day)
It’s a shame we are down to 15 runners in this now as that means 4 places aren’t widely available for each way betting. Luckily there are a few bookies offering a concession and so that’s the go to place for the second recommendation 0.75 pts ew Rotherwick 2.05 Goodwood – take 16/1 with Betfair Sportsbook/Betfred/Tote all offering ¼ 1234
What looked a potentially decent weekend for betting has been somewhat dashed by the weather gods.
The hot weather has left ground a bit too fast at Sandown. The feature race – the Coral Eclipse – sees Derby winner Golden Horn face only 4 rivals in his bid to maintain an unbeaten record. The form of that win is looking all the better following a boost in the Irish Derby and he really should win. At odds of no more than 2/5 he’s hardly a value bet though considering the small field and no obvious front runner in the race. It could easily end up a tactical affair in a falsely run race and is best left to watch.
Fast ground has also seen the unsurprising withdrawal of Meccas Angel in the 2.00. Waady is 2 from 2 at the course this season over this trip and fast ground – and has a decent draw making him firmly the one to beat. He’ll probably go off around 2/1 now though – and that’s plenty short enough. Haydock had a couple of races that looked of definite interest midweek but once again this course has done its best to ruin some potentially decent events by course mismanagement.
With rain expected, it’s hard to fathom why watering took place on Wednesday night. Good to Firm ground was declared for the first race on Thursday and it was quickly apparent by the time it was nowhere near that. Within no time at all it was changed to Good to Soft.
This isn’t the first time there have been erroneous ground descriptions from this venue. It can only be a matter of time before the name of the Clerk of the Course, Kirkland Tellwright, enters Rogers Profannisaurus in some guise – and for all of the wrong reasons!
What all of this only confirms that Haydock is a poor place to hold any advance views as the going information just isn’t reliable enough. Its only when seeing times and a visual impression of the ground that an opinion can be made.
The circumstances have certainly helped Lady Tiana’s case in the Lancashire Oaks at 2.15. The softer the better for her, so if it looks hard work in the opener she is definitely the one to beat.
There have already been non runners in the supporting Old Newton Cup at 2.50 due to the ground situation. If it remains bad I’m half expecting fast ground loving Battersea to join them and add a Rule 4 deduction to current odds. Penhill will appreciate the easier ground and was reported to have not handled the track at Newmarket last time. I think he has the potential to be a good bit better than his mark but does need to settle a bit better in his races – something that makes his odds for this race look a tad short. Kinema appeals most of the outsiders as he still remains a bit unexposed at this trip.
All in all this is a weekend to watch and keep stakes low so I have no recommendations. However I do have a strong fancy for an Ante Post punt next week. Mount Logan had a slightly unfortunate passage at Royal Ascot last time when a close fourth and would have undoubtedly given winner Mahsoob (now Group race bound) more to do but for that. He comes into next weeks John Smiths Cup off the same mark as a result and I think he’s overpriced at 12/1.
Trainer Luca Cumani has intimated on his website that he is a most likely runner (ahead of stablemate Ajman Bridge – trainer has a good line to potential rival Arab Dawn through that) Lightning Spear is current favourite but is by no means a certain runner holding an alternative engagement in the shorter Bunbury Cup at Newmarket next weekend. A quote from his trainer Olly Stevens after his latest impressive win is a little telling to me –
We´ve got a variety of options for Lightning Spear. He´s in a Listed race on Saturday, but I wouldn´t have thought we´d rush him back. We´ll discuss things with the owners, but it´s hard to change things when you keep winning. However, he has the speed for 7f and the class for 1m2f so he´s in two big handicaps over those trips – the Bunbury Cup and John Smith´s Cup. It was a shame he didn´t make the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, and while we might be forced to go for something higher later in the year, a handicap is the next logical step
This would suggest to me that his optimum trip is between the two distances mentioned and that would favour the Bunbury Cup option. (Ground at both courses may also play a factor of course)
We also have Sahaafy and Spark Plug close to the head of the betting next week. As they are both running at Sandown tomorrow it would be a bit quick to expect them out again unless either win impressively and try to take quick advantage of their marks.
There is some chance of thunderstorms next week but hopefully that will only serve to make York’s ground (currently Good to Firm) just ease slightly before the weekend. Mount Logan’s only dismal performance last season came on almost unraceable heavy ground at Doncaster and anything like that is highly unlikely.
Given he looks the most likely to run of the principals and holds strong form claims I can see him being much shorter than current odds this time next week and think now is the time to jump in Recommendation 1.5pts ew Mount Logan – John Smiths Cup – 12/1 (SportingBet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Stan James, Betfair Sportsbook)
thefinalfence 