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What a difference a day makes! After some abject performances yesterday the blog se;lections have steamed back today to record a 48.75 pt profit on the day and 36.75 points ahead on the meeting so far. O’Faolains Boy got the Ante Post selections off to a lovely start, Sire De Grugy cemented the profit and then there was a lovely surprise when Hawk High (as high as 50/1 available today) won the Fred Winter.

It would be too much to hope we can match those type of figures but we can but try!

Thursday races:

1.30 JLT Novices Chase

¼ odds 123 generally available

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/13:30/winner

The change of this to Group 1 status has really elevated this race last year and attracted many that would normally have plumped for the Arkle or the RSA. For me, it is the classiest race of the three this year.

Because of the change in conditions, previous stats may not be too relevant

I advised Oscar Whisky in my January update blog at 10/1 and he’s still here with a fine chance on ground that should suit. Some judges have crabbed his latest win but that was on terrible ground and this should be his optimum conditions. I expect him to uphold his form over others he has beaten this season now that he won’t have to shoulder all of the donkey work up front himself.

Djakadam has been well touted by the Irish shrewdies recently as a Gold Cup horse of the future but his price is more about potential than actual form,a remark I would also give to Harry Fry’s Vukovar. Neither can be totally discounted it but I’d want a bit more juice in their odds

Taquin Du Seuil needs softer ground we have to think (same for Double Ross)and the main danger is Felix Yonger back on the kind of surface he looked so impressive on earlier in the season (soft ground just doesn’t show him in the same light). A saver on Felix, who seems a very professional jumper might not go amiss

But I rely on the ante post bet here

Previously recommended

3pts ew Oscar Whisky 10/1

2.05 Pertemps Final

¼ odds generally but search out for those offering ¼ 12345

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/14:05/winner

Very tricky handicap – a rating stat would tell us to avoid anything that is 143+ though. Some will have been laid out specifically for the race and expect the change in ground to bring about some notable improvement in some contenders. These weight stats are being beaten this week it has to be said and the better ground must have something to do with that so I am less inclined to dismiss the higher weights than normal.

What I am loathe to do in such a tricky race is to back anything at single figure odds so despite strong claims for both I can’t back Fingal Bay or If In Doubt.

It’s the kind of race where I look for the overpriced outsiders but definitely not a race to go overboard on.

There aren’t many that scream out as being ahead of the handicapper but two take the eye for small stakes.

Grand Vision was a very useful novice (3^rd in Albert Bartlett 2 seasons back) who then suffered an injury and missed a season. He seems to be gradually fin ding his way back to form this season and it was no disgrace not to match Saphir Du Rheu and today’s Coral Cup winner Whisper over an inadequate trip last time. A mark of 142 is fair on his novice form and that also shows he operates on this course/distance/ground

The other one has been to this well many times before – Cross Kennon. He’s a front runner who can be very hard to pass and 139 is not a harsh mark. He ran well off the same mark here in November and is better off with Southfield Theatre was 3.5 lengths in front, and also Pineau de Re who finished a neck behind. Expect him to be in the van throughout and trying to beat them off from a long way out. This tactic is not strange to see in winning this race –  Buena Vista, Kayf Aramis and one of my all time favs from past years, Willie Wumpkins all did it that hard way too.

Recommendations:

1pt ew Grand Vision 16/1 (Hills ¼ 1234)

0.5 pts ew Cross Kennon 33/1 (Skybet & Paddy Power where ¼ 12345 is available)

2.40 Ryanair Chase

Generally ¼ odds 123

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/14:40/winner

I have to admit to this being a bit of a graveyard race for me in the past – it often seems to be the consolation prize for horses who can’t quite get into the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup. 3 mile form seems to outweigh form from shorter trips and a previous win at Cheltenham is a notable must have.

Benefficient and Dynaste represent last year’s JLT form but Dynaste has yet to perform to his highest level at this meeting in the past and I’m not sure if the JLT form is quite up with what others have achieved.

Al Ferof is my marginal preference but I would be very wary of Menorah, whose form at the back end of last season is arguably the strongest in this race. He hasn’t done much this season but is the dark one here.

Not a strong enough view to recommend a bet though

3.20 World Hurdle

Generally ¼ odds 123

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/15:20/winner

The inclusion of Annie Power into this event has kind of robbed it of betting interest to me. She could well be a class above them but is untested over 3 miles and that has to put me off taking any short odds. Her price will be shorter still after the wins of Vautour and Faugheen for the Mullins team will see liabilities running onto her and stablemate Briar Hill on Friday.

Big Bucks still has question marks after his reappearance from a long injury lay off – he is the best staying hurdler I have ever seen but he is 11 now and we can’t tell for sure if he retains all of his ability.

Expect Big Bucks’s stablemates to make this a true stamina test to expose any weaknesses in their rivals.

Given the doubts about the top two,  I would normally be looking for something each way to oppose them with. At Fishers Cross would prefer much softer ground though so not to expose his jumping flaws. More of That hasn’t raced over the trip either, and his full brother Eastlake’s record wouldn’t give any confidence for him staying it.

Rule The World is the interesting outsider for me. Second to The New One in the Neptune last year he looked a serious prospect for the future then but got badly injured on his next start. It’s great to have him back and his astute trainer, Mouse Morris, will have him trained to the moment for this I’m sure.

He just isn’t quite big enough to recommend but we may look at this race again tomorrow if firms offer markets without the two favourites

4.00 Byrne Group Plate

Generally ¼ odds 1234 but again there are firms who will pay that extra 5^th place if you can get it

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/16:00/winner

My mail box was swamped earlier today with ‘Racing Post Tracker’ info of horses I was looking out for being entered in this race.

There are several possibilities for me

There is a weight stat favouring anything rated less than 142 but as previously mentioned I am less inclined to stick rigidly to that with the ground.

Previous soft ground could also be responsible for a good record for French bred horses in this.

A previous run at the Festival is a must though for me – and the Irish have a terrible record in this race.

These two stats are enough to put me off the fancied Sraid Padraig.

Tap Night went into mine and many other notebooks for this race with an eyecatching display here in January. It also went into the handicappers notebook though who raised him to 145 – and the fact that AP Mc Coy deserts him for Colour Squadron puts me off there

Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron were the 1-2 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last November on the course. This hasn’t been a good guide here in the past and the handicapper appears to have their measure now but I am interested in the favourite for that race, Champion Court, who disappointed then and was found to be not right subsequently. He finds himself here, despite being allotted top weight, about a stone better off with both of them – and has the great assistance of Ryan Hatch to claim 7lbs to bring his mark effectively down to 150. This really is an attractive mark for a horse who has enough class to be a Ryanair chase runner. Hatch is very good claimer who has already won the Betfair Hurdle this year and has Festival winning experience from Same Difference last year. Stats may not be in his favour but I like his chances here.

Third Intention is a cliff horse for me – I will follow him over one most probably but won’t desert him here at his price. I don’t think he’s been campaigned that well on ground that has been too soft for him at times and for me this is more his ground/trip. He’s also slipped from a mark in the 150s to 143 and I’m sure he can win something decent off that if things go his way. Timeform give him a squiggle as being unreliable but I think that’s a little unfair and his third at Ascot last time got a nice boost when O Faolains Boy took the RSA today

At the bootom of the weights, Tartak is a bit of a lurker getting in off 131 (should be 129 but the minum weight is 10st). He was third in this of 134 last year and showed in October he can still be effective in this type of race. I’m always happy to ignore runs in Haydock’s awful soft ground as he had last time

Recommendations

1pt ew Champion Court 14/1 (365 paying 1^st 5, Paddy Power 1^st 4)

1pt ew Third Intention 16/1 (sportingBet 1^st 5, others 1^st 4)

0.5 pts ew Tartak 33/1(888 1^st 5, others 1^st 4)

4.40 Kim Muir Trophy

Generally ¼ odds 1234 but again some firms offer 12345

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/16:40/winner

Another competitive handicap but this time for amateur riders.

For amateurs it makes a huge difference to me how much experience they have and if they are claiming weight that’s a big turn off. The best amateurs can have a significant advantage in ability and experience.

The market is dominated by Indian Castle and Cause of Causes and there is a natural inclination to think both have been laid out for this race.

Donald McCain likes this race – Cloudy Lane was his first Festival winner here and he came very close with Super Duty last year. Indian castle won well last time and easy to see why he’s fav with a top rider on his back. The worry though is that his best form comes on softer ground.

Cause of Causes had several entries at the meeting but has come for this with the excellent Nina Carberry to do the steering. The handicapper hasn’t missed the move though and 140 isn’t exactly thrown in on his chase form although he was weighted higher over hurdles. He can’t be discounted but I feel others are overpriced as the bookies try to keep these two short.

Roberto Goldback is a bit of a veteran now but it’s a very long time since he got the good ground he wants and a mark below 150 (144 here). Sam Waley Cohen has won a Gold Cup so I think we can’t crab him when it comes to experience! He is both top rated on Racing Post ratings and Timeform to highlight his form chances. I am a little concerned about previous course form but the price is too tempting to ignore

Spring Heeled was an eyecatcher over 4 furlongs further here in November when he appeared not to get home. This ground appears best for him and on this shorter trip I can see him being a big player here with another top amateur on board. He’s another I suspect has been mapped out for this race but the price is far more to my liking

Recommendations

1pt ew Roberto Goldback 20/1 (Stan James and Betfair Sportsbook both pay out 12345)

1pt ew Spring Heeled 18/1 (Stan James)

As always comments are welcome – thanks for taking the time to read the blog and best of luck once more!

Paul

**MORNING UPDATE**
Not many firms wanting to get involved in markets without the favs in the World Hurdle – further muddied by Quevega still sitting in the race and far from guaranteed to be a runner. Will leave that alone.
Despite the Ryanair being my bogey race at the Festival though I think Al Ferof’s form at the track is a bit too solid and the 5/1 available this morning is making him an each way proposition as I struggle to see him out of the frame. Not going mad here given my record in the race before but adding in
1.5 pts ew Al Ferof 5/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power, Stan James)

(prices have moved on some of last nights selections I’m afraid – Racing Post pricewise put up Champion Court and Hugh Taylor of At The Races threw in Grand Vision http://www.attheraces.com/cheltenham/article.aspx?hlid=537628&lid=&raceid=&title=Hugh+Taylor&ref=Cheltenham+-+Left+Navigation&nav=barry+geraghty+blog&sub=&day=Thu. Third Intention has also come in for some overnight support)

Here’s hoping for another good day!

A sad day today with the Champion Hurdle result being marred by the sad loss of one of racing’s up and coming stars, Our Conor during the race.

His terrible mishap may well have cost The New One the race also, leaving a bittersweet taste in the mouth regarding the final result.

The blog picks haven’t shone today recording a 12 point loss but tomorrow is another day ands so ‘once more unto the breach’:

 

Wednesday’s card:

1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle

¼ odds 123 generally available

A classy event but I think it concerns the fron 4 in the betting and at the moment value doesn’t jump out on any.

Faugheen has been touted as Mullins’s top novice hurdler through the winter (Vautour won Supreme today). He certainly seems to have an engine but his wins haven’t been without jumping errors and he’ll need to sharpen that up here. His bumper form deserves special mention having beaten today’s Supreme 2^nd Josses Hill by 20 lengths! Some vibes from the stable in preview evenings in the last couple of weeks were slightly negative

Stablemate, Rathvinden has had more positive vibes recently and ran second to Red Sherlock here in January, the pair pulling well clear of their field (albeit on softer ground) in the manner of two class acts. They should be close again but despite his tail swishing antics, Red Sherlock is a tough type who often looks to do just enough in his races. I think he may confirm that form and there is no obvious reason he won’t go on this ground.

Nicky Henderson had a woeful record in this race until Simonsig finally did the business and ground is maybe more of a concern for Royal Boy.  He appears weakest of the big 4 for me now.

Of the 4, I have marginal preference for Red Sherlock at the odds of 4/1 but they are all a bit skinny for betting unless one of the firms goes ¼ 1234 this evening

 

2.05 RSA Chase

¼ odds 123 generally available – current odds here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/14:05/winner

The two selections I made in my January update post are still here and I am happy to leave it at that. https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/cheltenham-2014-january-ante-post-preview/  .

This is an open race and I still think the Irish runners are too short in an open field. As previously mentioned in the blog, Annacotty is one I would like to keep on side as well as the two selections and would not put anyone off backing him at 20s (may get a few of these in trouble with his attacking front running style, although may prefer the ground a little softer)

Previously advised:

1pt ew Le Bec 16/1

1ptew O’ Faolains Boy 25/1

(the latter carries my strongest hopes for this race now that Barry Geraghty is confirmed aboard – some may think the good ground may not suit but he has point to point form on the surface)

 

 

2.40 Coral Cup

Most firms offering ¼ odds 12345 (avoid any offering first 4 because of this) http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/14:40/winner

Highly competitive handicap but worth nothing that nothing has ever won from a mark of 147 or above,  despite some good placed efforts from the high weights.

One of those efforts was from Get Me Out of Here (second off 155 in 2012) and he’s had a quiet time this season up to now where he is reunited with Tony Mc Coy. On better ground, a bold effort would not be surprising but he does have a killer stat to overcome to win off 148. 25/1 is fair though and I certainly see him placing again.

I put up Meister Eckhart for this race last year and he ran a great race to be 2^nd off 143. The stable’s runners ran well on Tuesday but he is 6lb higher and that rise just puts me off supporting him again.

The lighter weights appear to be the best place to look and there are two that give the impression of being ‘laid out’ for this.

Clondaw Kaempfer, came to Donald McCain with a big reputation last year and it was noted then by the trainer that soft ground wouldn’t be the horses favourite surface. McCain had Son of Flicka spot on for this race a couple of years ago and I can foresee a big run. The one negative for me is his lack of course experience which sways me instead towards Bayan who recorded a second here last year

Bayan represents another previous winning trainer in Gordon Elliott and looks to have been put away for this since December. Elliott certainly got this race right with Carlito Brigante who bolted up in the same colours and Bayan will get the ground he performs best on

Recommendation

1pt ew Bayan 12/1 (generally available)

 

 

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase

¼ odds 123 generally available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/15:20/winner

With reigning champion Sprinter Sacre sidelined this has a more open look and is further thrown into confusion with the three horses I consider to have best form in the race – Sire De Grugy, Arvika Ligeonneire and Somersby all having shown their best form outside of Cheltenham.

With the ground getting quicker also there seems to be a general drive by the firms to try and ‘get’ Sire De Grugy but they could overdo it here and he is gradually verging into value territory.

He has finished second twice in his two starts here but they weren’t bad runs and I’m sure Jamie Moore would have liked to have ridden the race again and come later after being nabbed by McCoy inspired Kid Cassify on the run in.

He is the best 2 mile chaser in the country and now he’s got to 3/1 I will be playing as I think that’s just too much – his Ascot win last time represented another jump forward in his form to me.

So the recommendation is 3pts win Sire De Grugy @3/1 or better (now available with a few firms)

 

4.00 Cross Country Chase

A nice spectacle to watch is my tactful description of this race. Since watching the field dawdle round until the final home turn in A New Story’s year and then all go for a mass sprint in the home straight – crowding each other in the process, I have been turned off it as a betting medium

No Bet thank you very much

 

4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle

1/4 odds 1234 generally but again check for those who offer 5^th place payouts again http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/16:40/winner

Always a competitive race but there is a notable stat favouring the highest flat rated horses in the race. Here that seems to be a toss up (96 rating each) for Goodwood Mirage (eyecatching run last time) and Orgilgo Bay (once rated 103). The better ground could see both of them improve and the latter has already been backed from early quotes of 33/1 today.

Recommendations

1pt ew Goodwood Mirage 10/1 (BetVictor, Hills)

0.5 pts ew Orgilgo Bay 20/1 (Sportingbet – who pay out 5^th here also)

 

 

5.15 Champion Bumper

Generally ¼ 123 but some firms offering ¼ 1234 now  http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/17:15/winner

Covered  a few days ago in a previous blog post, both of those I put up there are running and content to stick with them – prices haven’t altered too much since https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2014/03/07/cheltenham-bumper-preview/

Already advised

1pt ew Neck Or Nothing 25/1

1pt ew Our Kaempfer 33/1

 

 

Thanks for reading once more

 

Good Luck

 

Paul

*Morning Update*
4.40 Have a sneaking feeling about Hawk High in this. Don’t consider him especially well weighted on what he has done but have a strong suspicion he could improve markedly on this ground. The Easterby threat is not what it was in the 70s and 80s but he only has a couple of entries at the meeting and doubt he would just send this down for a day out
0.25 pts ew Hawk High @40/1 added to portfolio

At 1.30 pm on Tuesday 11^th March  ‘the roar’ will sound out for the start of the first race of the 2014 Festival

The first day has often been one of the bigger ones for me for taking a view but this year it might well be the quietest of the 4 with some tough races and value hard to pinpoint

Nevertheless, here goes

130 Supreme Novices Hurdle

Generally ¼ odds 123 but some books offer 1234 (and check out Paddy Power’s money back offer if you finish 2^nd,3^rd or 4^th for sure!)

I find myself having question marks over the first few in the betting here

Irving slipped under the radar a bit earlier in the season but has progressed into the form leader coming into this after a very impressive win last time out at Kempton. The downsides are that his best form is on softer ground and most pertinently over right handed tracks. An undulating left hand course now faces him and with no form on such a circuit, I’d need a bit more than 3/1 to be tempted.

The Mullins stable come next in betting with Vautour (might need more of a trip and more experience) and Wicklow Brave (didn’t impress enough with jumping technique last time out). (If either or both do exceeb themsleves expect to see money for Lieutenant Colonle in Wednesday’s Neptune

And so I look for the value outsiders instead. I don’t include the Henderson pair here despite the trainer’s good record in this race – Vaniteux’s price is nothing to do with form and just about recent stable homework – Josses Hill has had a recent setback and not convinced that a stiff 2 miles is for him anyway.

The shortlist comprises Gilgamboa, The Liquidator, Un Ace and Three Kingdoms

( I would dearly love to see Wilde Blue Yonder win as I know one of the owners – but it’s against my religion to back anything that has FF next to its form – hope it runs well though!)

Gilgamboa. I can remember only Redundant Pal trying the Boylesports Hurdle– Supreme double in recent times, and he managed 5^th in 1989. He looks a progressive sort and we know he operates at a good pace in a big field. 12/1 probably about right but can see him shortening with the McCoy factor.

The Liquidator boasts something quite rare in this field : course form!. An impressive win here in November and a solid display in last season’s Champion bumper ( statistically one of the best guides for this race), he was almost fav for this before a poor display at Kempton in January. It seemed still 50-50 he would run here last week but have to assume he’s showing something again at home now he is the sole representative from his stable’s strong novice team. A big player if back to his best.

Un Ace doesn’t have the form to match these but he could be called the winner some way out at Doncaster last time and seems to want decent ground –there would be worse 50/1 shots

The one who shouldn’t be 50/1 though is Three Kingdoms. His form is all largely handicaps but the form of the one he ran at on this course before Christmas should not be sniffed at – giving weight to Quick Jack and Deep Trouble who now have far higher marks. He has also beaten the highly progressive Vibrato Valtat on ground that probably wasn’t ideal. That form isn’t reprentative of his price here ( a quick glance at Racing Post ratings will confirm that) and he has to be a bet

 

Recommendations

0.5 pts ew The Liquidator 20/1 (365,888, Skybet taking ¼ 1234)

0.5 pts ew Three Kingdoms 40/1 or better (888 offer 50/1 ¼ 1234 if you can get it)

Oddsscheker prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-11-cheltenham/13:30/winner

 

 

2.05 Arkle Trophy

I don’t remember a year I didn’t fancy anything here but find 2014 a bit of a minefield with no value appearing.

Champagne Fever looks the one who should be the best chaser but experience lacking – he may get the lead to himself here though which well help.

Expect Trifolium (needs softer ground?) and Rock on Ruby (only form in 2 and 3 runner races so experience a huge problem) to be trying to keep early tabs on him

Grandouet may have been best of these over hurdles but just doesn’t look as if he’s transferred all of that ability to chasing yet.

Dodging Bullets would be my idea of the safest ew bet – ground will suit but have this nagging feeling he will find one too good

Valdez is out of his depth to me

 

Verdict : No single bet but see Champion hurdle

 

2.40 Baylis and Harding Affordable Luxury Handicap Chase (or the ‘Ritz Club’ for those of us with penchant for the older titles)

¼ odds 1-2-3-4 generally available

A big race to follow stats for me which tell us that the vast majority of winners carried less than 11st (this takes out the top 15 runners in one fell swoop) and should be aged less than 11 (bye bye to the likely to be gambled Alfie Sherrin and Fruity O’ Rooney)

If we apply form at previous Festivals now, the standout is Time For Rupert (one time RSA fav and runner up to Big Bucks in the World Hurdle).

Injury has seen him slip from the top flight but so has his handicap mark and he showed his first return to form last time out at Doncaster. This course has always suited him very well and he’s fancied to reagins some of his former glories

Solix is another that interests me right at the bottom of the weights. He too has previous Festival form running 5^th in the 2011 Coral Cup off a 23lb higher mark than he has tomorrow. The suspicion was he had lost his form but in the Skybet Chase in January he had many in trouble on the home turn until the soft ground told and he finished 4^th. Better ground will undoubtedly help him .He finished placed at Sandown only last Friday when soft ground/rh track combination didn’t suit at all – there is a chance of course this may come too soon after that but at the price it’s a chance worth taking.

Muldoon’s Picnic is the final selection here – no course form, just a belief that he could be reasonably treated now that the ground is getting better once more

Recommendations:

1pt ew Time For Rupert 16/1 (general)

0.5 pts ew Solix 50/1 (BetVictor, Stan James, Coral, Betfair Sportsbook)

0.5 pts ew Muldoons Picnic 33/1 (general)

 

Oddschecker link here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-11-cheltenham/14:40/winner

 

3.20 Champion Hurdle

¼ odds 123 generally offered – a good concession as there are just 4 main protagonists – avoid firm offering 1/5^th for ew

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-11-cheltenham/14:05/winner

The piece de resistance of day one! I really would have liked to have seen Annie Power and Un De Sceaux take their chances here but we still have a stellar field as Hurricane Fly attempts a 3^rd win in the event.

The inclusion of Captain Cee Bee in the field as a pacemaker is a blessed relief. His stablemate, My Tent or Yours shouldn’t have any problems with a slow early pace now, and The New One won’t have to make the running

It all makes for a fairly run event and hopefully no excuses. I am of the opinion that Hurricane Fly’s best form is at Leopardstown rather than here (though not by a huge amount), and I don’t back 5yos in this race so Our Conor is not for me (maybe next year)

There appears very little between The New One and My Tent or Yours so at prices marginal preference is for My Tent or Yours as the ew bet at 4/1 or more

Not quite enough to merit a recommendation but an ew double with Dodging Bullets in the Arkle is half tempting

I don’t foresee a winner outside of the main 4 – not the ideal course for Jezki for me and Melodic Rendezvous needed very soft ground to have any chance of an upset

 

Verdict:

Going for the place angle here with

1pt ew double My Tent or Yours 4/1 or better with Dodging Bullets 5/1 2.05 Chelt

(for anyone without a Paddy Power account take note that they do offer £10 max on The New One at 8/1 – that is the best value to be had by far)

 

4.00 Mares Hurdle

 

This is all about Quevega who does very little all year and just gets tuned up for this and then wins

Corals offer a crazy 4/1 about an odds on shot here for new accounts (max £10) for anyone who can avail themselves of that

I can’t back her at prohibitive odds but it’s hard to oppose her also – hopefully more firms do a without the fav market here tomorrow and we might see something but for now the verdict is NO BET

 

4.40 National Hunt Chase

Another No Bet race for me.

Foxrock looks the obvious one to be laid out for this race but 5 and 6yo have a very bad record in this which counts against him at the price and Rogue Angel.

Shotgun Paddy’s need for softer ground is concerning enough to sway me there and Shutthefrontdoor is the marginal choice but don’t like the 7/2 sort of price being offered

I’ve tried to find an interesting outsider but so far failed to come up with anything!

 

5.15 Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap Chase

Things to look for here from a stats perspective:

Handicap chase debutants

7yos

Previous novice hurdle form at the festival

Beaten on at least 2 first chase starts and being a maiden over fences not such a bad thing

 

All of this leads me to Close House as the pick – this ground and trip look optimum and his chase mark is 8lb lower than his highest hurdles mark. He could have crept in leniently.

 

Recommendation

1pt ew Close House 16/1 (take ¼ 12345 with 888 if you can otherwise the general 1234)

 

As ever comments are appreciated – have a good week with whatever you back and enjoy the spectacle!

Thanks for reading 

Paul

(updates planned every evening for following day’s racing and additionally during the day if anything of interest is worth adding)

Evening update – value appearing in the Mares Hurdle now in the ‘without Quevega’ market
Doyly Carte will like better ground and not sure that Cockney Sparrow would have beaten her at Doncaster last time if she had stayed up. Jockey booking now unknown but 20/1 without the fav is too big for me. Kelso run last time was poor but all of Donald’s ran badly that day and the stable form has turned since.
Recommendation: 1pt ew Doyly Carte w/o the fav @20/1 (1/5 123) – Paddy Power/Stan James

I wasn’t planning to cover this race until the night before but after scanning the 5 day declarations and the latest odds there are a couple of bets to be had in the race for me.

Wednesday’s final event has the betting dominated by the Irish challengers. That’s not entirely surprising when we consider their blanket bombing of this event has resulted in 16 of the 21 wins since its inception.

Willie Mullins as per usual heads the attack with 3 likely runners (Shaneshill, Black Hercules and Killultagh Vic) – he has a fine record in the race but it’s always a guessing game as to which of his is best and the bookies take no chances with having them all trading at 10/1 or less. One of them may turn out to be another superstar but unless privy to stable info that one is significantly better then there is hardly much value there

Dermot Weld also has a couple near the front of the odds (Siver Concorde and Vigil) but worth noting his record in the race is quite poor – even his subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage could do no better than 3^rd

With the Irish runners mostly so short (and many having form on much softer ground than is likely now) the value bets for me come from the home side where odds are more generous.

The unbeaten Modus is the shortest price of the GB runners based on a very impressive course win on Jan 1 on soft ground. While he looked very good I do find myself questioning what he actually beat that day and I find myself drawn more to another bumper run at the course in November for my selections.

The bumper run at the Open meeting in November looked very strong at the time and the exploits since of the winner Red Sherlock do nothing to dispel that.

He pulled clear with Carningli and Our Kaempfer in the home straight with some good subsequent winners (Wadswick Court and Cogry) well in their wakes.

Carningli didn’t exactly advertise the form next time but ground could well be to blame for that.

However the impression I took most at the time was that the very green looking Our Kaempfer could ultimately prove the best horse in the race.

He hasn’t been seen since but I’m sure that’s down to the ground (his full brother Clondaw Kaempfer has won on soft but has always had suspicion that it doesn’t really suit him as well). Lack of experience may be an issue but the engine is definitely there and 33/1 more than outweighs the downsides.

Looking back at the race again however did provide another notable eyecatcher – Neck or Nothing. Irish trained at the time (sold for 200k two days before the race) – he now represents same connections as successful with Cheltenian in this race in 2011.

Neck or Nothing’s run is worth a look on video as he was moving ominously behind the pack when losing all chance with an acrobatic display after spooking and trying to jump a road before the home turn. The birds had flown by the time he had righted himself but he was still spotted putting in a nice finish up the hill and there was clear indication he had the ability to be seriously involved in the finish if that hadn’t happened

I also suspect he has been saved since to keep away from the bad winter ground and am sure that Philip Hobbs will have him fit enough for this

If the ground were still to stay too soft there must be a chance the either or both will not run so betting with NRNB is a must here (if ground does stay soft then I also consider Definitly Red overpriced currently –  would be much shorter I’m sure if his stable was higher profile – will save that for nearer the time though as ground not looking to go that way right now)

 

Recommendations:

1pt ew Our Kaempfer 33/1 NRNB (BetVictor, Stan James)

1pt ew Neck or Nothing 25/1 NRNB (available fairly generally but avoid Will Hill who do not offer the nrnb concession)

Odds link for the race available here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-bumper/winner

With the first five day declarations in today excitement is building as we approach the Festival once more. (Tuesdays 5 day decs can be found here http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/meeting_of_cards.sd?crs_id=11&r_date=2014-03-11&tab=sc_ )

It’s still hard to predict who runs where in some cases and what will the ground be like. Currently it’s soft (good to soft in places) but the forecast looks dry and good to soft looking more likely – and who knows we may even have genuine good ground at some point during the week. A word of warning though – the water table is so high that it would probably not take much rain for the ground to deteriorate so it’s still a bit of a ‘wait and see’. I’ll be blogging every night before each days racing next week but for now a quick recap through what was already put up in my last blog and how they look now

RSA Chase

1pt ew Le Bec 16/1 – still generally 14 or 16 available and largely because Emma Lavelle’s charge hasnt run since so not much more to add! (havent heard anything negative since though)

1pt ew OFaolains Boy 25/1 – now offered between 12 and 16 max – his second chase run didnt go to plan but he did indeed return for the Reynoldstown where a nice win cemented his chance here. I believe better ground will suit and think he’s still overpriced on that effort. I’m hoping Barry Geraghty can renew his association with no obvious Henderson candidate for him to ride.

There still appears no obvious standout to me in this race and can see anything rated around 150 being able to win it.

I did put up Annacotty’s chances on Twitter after a fine effort last time out at Cheltenham when failing under a big weight after being taken on for the lead early. He was added to my portfolio at 33/1 and while I see 20/1 as a fair price I think the value margin is not quite enough to put him up on the blog at those odds (though wouldnt dissuade anyone from adding him)

A lot of preview nights seem to suggest the Irish challenge will outpoint the English here but I’m not so sure they are ahead and dont like the fact that none of their three main raiders have any course form here.

 

JLT Chase

3pts ew Oscar Whisky 10/1 – now 7/1 best price and as low as 5/1

Oscar has run since in a not too impressive win at Sandown where the bad ground undoubtedly didnt help him. I dont take negatives from that – yes, it could have been visually better but it’s his Cheltenham record that is all important for our purposes. The better weather forecast is good news – good to soft would be ideal for Oscar – Felix Yonger would be the one I fear most if the ground does verge on good.

TRIUMPH Hurdle

1pt ew Fox Norton 25/1 – Non Runner (LOSS – 2pts)

The perils of Ante Post betting struck here when he was taken out of the race a couple of weeks ago making this a losing bet. I dont know the reason for his withdrawal but it’s a shame as his form lines were working out nicely and hope to see Broughton advertising the Doncaster race now ( though suspect the hill may not suit this one as well as others)

 

GOLD CUP

2pts ew FIRST LIEUTENANT 12/1 – now as high as 16/1

Clearly made to look second best behind Last Instalment last time but the ground was too soft for him there. There is a question mark now if he runs in the Gold Cup or the shorter Ryanair Chase dependant on the ground. However, tonight the same owners Last Instalment is described as 50-50 to run and will only compete if the ground is soft. The weather forecast suggests it wont be and this would also suggest that First Lieutenant wil run in this race now on the ground he so dearly needs.

With ‘Non Runner No Bet’ now available there is some insuranced if he does run in the Ryanair (original bet would be a loser) and I think its worth bolstering what we have on this now as I think his place claims are so strong if he gets optimum conditions

Therefore another 1pt ew First Lieutenant (16/1 BetVictor taking NRNB) making 3pts ew in total

I firmly see Bobs Worth as the horse to beat here still (peerless 5/5 record at Cheltenham). I’m hopeful we may see some firms offering more lucrative prices than 2/1 come the day here and if any firms do tasty price boosts on him would take what you can there

 

Nothing to add for other races yet. The feature on Tuesday, the Champion hurdle doesnt offer any value at this stage to me. I feel a bit robbed here that the Mullins camp may not let Annie Power and Un De Sceaux take their chance in this race. I may be wrong but it all seems to be a grand effort to let Hurricane Fly have his best chance of winning (really not sure now is the time to see if Annie Power stays 3 miles in the World Hurdle instead). Thankfully, even if Un De Sceaux does not run we now have the inclusion today of Captain Cee Bee to provide some pace in the race. The New One won’t have to make the running now – My Tent or Yours won’t lose the race by pulling and we should have a case of the best horse winning with no excuses.

 

Back on Monday night for the real fun to start!

 

Paul

 

 

Greetings all. The blog has been empty for a while but it’s largely there for my Cheltenham and Aintree thoughts so with the New Year settling in a few scribblings seem warranted!

I tend to think of January and February as quieter times for betting as races often become more about trials for the big thing and it’s the time to start bolstering the Ante Post portfolios instead.

Recent years havent got any easier with extra novice hurdles and novice chases making the guessing game of ‘who runs where’ so much harder – this year is no exception.

However here’s a few Ante Post selections right now that catch my eye as value right now:

RSA Chase (Weds 12th Mar)

No obvious star heading the market yet here and until one emerges I tend to think this could be another slightly substandard year with the newer JLT Chase over a shorter trip the following day steering away some of the classier and speedier types.

Emma Lavelle’s LE BEC has done little wrong in the two obvious trial races at the course before Christmas (beaten last time but came out best from a weight perspective) and am surprised that 16/1 is still generally available. It would be a surprise if he didnt turn up in the race and that course experience has to be a plus where so potential rivals from Ireland have yet to visit here at all.

A 7 year old Irish bred staying type would seem the ideal fit for this event so I also throw in O’FAOLAINS BOY as one to keep on the right side. One look at this tank of an animal would be enough to tell you that chasing was always going to be his game but he still managed a good fourth at last year’s Festival over hurdles. His reappearance at Ascot was full of promise, coming to win  the race before fitness told late on. Another run or two for further experience would be hoped for and it easy to see him returning for something like the Reynoldstown at Ascot ( a key trial race in the past) . 25/1 is still available in places and as long as he builds on the promise of that first run can see it only moving downwards.

Recommendations

1pt ew Le Bec (16/1 general)

1pt ew O’Faolains Boy 25/1 (Betvictor and 888)

 

JLT Chase (Thurs 13th March)

Formerly the Jewson Chase this race now matches the RSA and the previous days Arkle at Group One Level and there are some classy individuals at the forefront of the betting here. Many do have alternative entries and can’t be guaranteeed as runners but I would be stunned if OSCAR WHISKY ended up somewhere else. Throughout a top class hurdling career connections always wished for a race at his meeting between the 2 miles of the Chapnion Hurdle and the 3 miles of the World Hurdle. They never got it but they now have a race over the ‘ideal’ trip and his campaign so far his season has stuck to the same distance. In common with many of his owner’s horses he needed the run first time up and has since avenged that defeat by Taquin Du Seuil over the course. He’s also had to do a lot of the front running work in his races thus far and a stronger and bigger field come the day should surely suit. Plenty of Festival experience here to fall back on ( 6 course wins and only disappointments coming over the 3 mile trip) convince me that quotes of 10/1 are way too high here.

 

Recommendation

3pts ew OSCAR WHISKY 10/1 (888 are bets with 1/4 odds offered, Hills offering 1/5th – 9/1 with Corlas and Sportingbet also acceptable)

 

TRIUMPH HURDLE (Friday 14th March)

I thought Irish raider Analifet appeared someway above her rivals in this grade but her sad injury over Christmas has left a very wide open feel to the race. Nick Williams’ Le Rocher won the main juveniles division race at Chepstow but subsequent interviews seemd quite obviously to reveal he wasnt a likely Triumph runner. That space was more likely to be filled by his stablemate FOX NORTON who is held in similarly high regard. Before this one’s last win there seemed to be a general perception that he was flattered by his narrow defeat to Nicky Henderson’s Royal Irish Hussar at Market Rasen (the latter subsequently improving to win twice impressively since). At Doncaster he then turned round the form in what could have been a very smart race – yet there still seems to be a lack of recognition in his claims with some 25/1 quotes (maybe under assumption that Royal Irish Hussar just wasnt the same horse)

It would be nice to see him get some course experience before the big meeting ( a key trial coming up at end of this month) but he does stick out as the value play in this race right now

Recommendation

1pt ew Fox Norton 25/1 (Betvictor, Ladbrokes, Hills)

 

GOLD CUP (Friday 14th March)

I’ve long been a fan of FIRST LIEUTENANT and was a bit gutted to see him rerouted to the shorter Ryanair Chase last year so that his stablemate Sir Des Champs would run in the ‘big one’ instead. This year Sir Des Champs is out with injury and nothing would seem to bar Mouse Morris’s charge being aimed at what should be the correct race. He’s long appeared as a Spring horse and form achieved before March has been a bonus – furthermore he’s always looked the type who would improve into his frame as he got older. I do believe his most recent defeat to Bobs Worth represented another step forward and can see further improvement from that in March.

His Cheltenham festival record reads 122 with the defeats coming from the aforementioned Bobs Worth and Cue Card last year. Cue Card is surely vulnerable up the final hill over this trip were he to run here however.

Bobs Worth is a different matter and is obviously the one to beat but at their respective odds the value is firmly with the Irish challenger for me (King George winner Silviniaco Conti’s lack of proven course form a big concern). I do worry with ‘Bob’ being such a trier that it will come back to find him out one day

 

Recommendation

2pts ew First Lieutenant 12/1 (365, Betfred, Tote all offering this with NRNB for some extra safeguard)

GRAND NATIONAL (Sat 5th April)

Final Ante Post snippet for now comes for the piece de resistance event at Aintree.

When SOLL won at Sandown last year it was hard not to be impressed by the way this giant of a horse skipped round the fences. He went on to run at Aintree staying prominent for much of the way before weakening in the straight to finish 7th. His campaign last year suggested the National wasnt always the aim (competed in both Hennessy and Welsh National earlier in the season) but his performance there and quieter start to this season are indicative that there is firmly one one aim this time. His reappearance run was eyecatching, he’s now the right age at 9 and my fingers are crossed he now has a suitably light preparation to capitalise on an ideal looking mark of 139.

Hills are still dangling a juicy 50/1 carrot and would advise taking 1pt ew at those odds.

 

Thats all for now! Thanks for reading as usual , good luck with whatever you back and any comments are greatly appreciated

 

Hopefully back on the blog sometime in February for another look at the Ante Post markets but definitely back for the second week in March again!

 

Paul

(@Senor_Moodoir)

A successful day for the blog on Tuesday with Garswood swooping late and Harris Tweed being able to control the race as I hoped at a lovely double figure price – giving a handsome profit on the day.

I didn’t see Wednesday as a great betting day but some thoughts for Thursday’s tv races below

2.15

When this race used to be the Extel Handicap in years gone by, Luca Cumani would always be feared. His Ajmany doesnt look the Group winner in waiting that he used to throw here in the past though and along with current fav Code of Honour they don’t appeal at available odds after the handicapper has upped them both for recent wins.

There are two bigger prices that are more noteworthy and will be backing both ew. 

King George River 16/1. Was watching this one with interest last weekend in a much better race at York on his return from an injury sustained while giving subsequent French Derby victor Intello a good race at Newmarket. It may have been the fast ground or lack of a recent run but I got the distinct impression he was given an easy time with a view to something else.  My immediate thought was that his handicap mark of 103  could be on lenient side still and it’s notable for me that he has turned out again here so soon – Fallon on board rather than Tylicki now and less jar in the ground.

 

Cruck Realta is also overpriced at 25/1 now the ground is a bit easier and warrants support. She has run well against decent types this season and conditions were against her last time. I’d rather judge her on some earlier season performances here – on her run on good to soft earlier in the season she split the now 100+ rated pair of Contributer and yesterday’s Gordon Stakes winner, Cap O Rushes. Her mark of 95 tomorrow looks good in that respect and I think she is a better filly when the word ‘firm’ doesnt figure in the going

 

2.45

Godolphin’s Figure of Speech is too short for me here. Granted he may well improve on his July Stakes 2nd but he doesnt have much in hand on Jallota ( a consistent and slowly improving  type whose action suggests he may be better on ground less quick than he encountered there) .

While I think Jallota is quite big at 10/1, there is a worry he may have been overraced lately. Of slightly more interest is Andhesontherun at 16/1+. After staying on well over Sandown’s stiff 5 behind Rizeena, it wasnt entirely surprising to see them go too fast for him in the Windsor Castle at Ascot, but he still wasnt beaten far on the ‘wrong’ side of the track. This 6 furlong trip looks much better and I feel he is about double the price he really should be here.

3.15 The Goodwood Cup is wide open and I can make a case for nearly everything here. Nothing appealing as a betting proposition

3.45 Lady Cecil’s Wild Coco may well outclass these but taking close to Evens on her well being first time up doesnt appeal. Instead a small each way on last year’s second Jehannedarc is recommended. Perfectly willing to excuse her last run on ground that was too fast – here it should suit better and the trip holds no worries. 11/1 ew with  1/4 1st 3 is out there and worth taking some of.

 

Good luck once more!

 

Paul

A few too many thoughts for Day 1 to tweet but here’s my take on the 4 tv races on Tuesday, the first day of the meeting.

There’s no doubt that Goodwood is a beautiful racecourse – great for a picnic and a glass of Pimms in the sunshine but not always the best place for betting for me with hard luck stories aplenty in the bigger fields.

Wednesday’s card already looks a no bet today for the moment but here goes for day 1 ; ground has eased slightly over the weekend to good/good to firm in places and rain is expected tomorrow morning which could wipe the ‘firm’ out the description totally

1.55 Locally trained Blue Surf is the one to beat – back over his optimum trip and on a course he has performed well over in the past. 8/1 ew looks a perfectly fair price to take – any extra rain tomorrow will be a bonus to his chances.  Strictly Silver should benefit from a drop back in trip as well and could be an outsider whose chances are greater than the 20/1 currently on offer

2.30 Wide open affair and could make a case for nearly all of the runners – most of whom ran at Royal Ascot. I think Ambiance needs quick ground and don’t think he will get it. Many of these clashed in the Windsor Castle – Supplicant came out best there and Ryan Moore has a very healthy 75% strike rate for Richard Fahey this year so far. He was not dominant enough there though to suggest that 3/1 quotes are screaming to be taken. What value there is lies more with Sleeper King at 12/1 (corals completely duck at 15/2 ) and Justice Day at 16/1. Both were beaten about 3 lengths in that race but both showed a lot of speed which could be better suited to this track – and they can cope with any softer ground. Small ew on both is the recommendation.

3.05 Garswood is the one of interest here particularly with Ryan Moore now on board Richard Fahey’s Free Hcap winner. He didnt look totally happy on the fast ground at Ascot and think tomorrows conditions could show him in his best light again over what seems his optimum trip right now. Value is disappearing though and yesterdays quotes of 8/1 now seem a distant memory with 6/1 currently top price.

3.40 This competitive handicap is a bit of an Ebor trial. Oriental Fox is probably the one to beat – he ran well here earlier in the year and his one poor run this season could be attributed to faster ground than he’ll see here. He has run from the front here before but doesn’t have to lead. The pace angle of this race quite interests me as aside from the favourite, I could see Harris Tweed getting an uncontested lead up front with no one else wanting to take him on. That fact makes him the value ew bet at 20/1 and any further ease in the ground is again a positive factor

 

Thanks for reading, comments are always welcome and good luck with whatever you back

 

Paul

 

Ladies Day – the centrepiece of the Royal meeting is upon us after a couple of up and down days to precede it

Rizeena put things back into a respectable fashion on Wednesday after places were all I could muster on day 1.

Some thoughts for day 3 where the overnight weather could play a big part:

2.30 US trainer Wes Ward sent a very quick filly across to finish second in the Queen Mary and the vibes are that his representative here – No Nay Never is the best of his raiding party. If the rain doesn’t get into deep and ground is on fast side still tomorrow he could blitz this lot for speed (the trainer has won 2yo races similarly here in the past). If the ground softens his chances diminish. Hard to judge a recommendation until seeing what the ground is like but 5/1 really appeals if it’s no slower than good

 

3.05 Not a betting race for me. Alive Alive Oh and Winsili appearing the principals to me but neither at prices I would want to take

 

3.45 18 runners and the most open Gold Cup in living memory.

Last years winner, Colour Vision just hasn’t done anything since to suggest he is in the same vein of form.

Times Up is a doubtful stayer at this trip for me and I don’t think the German and French raiders are quite good enough.

The Queen’s Estimate is fav but price is too skinny I think.

The Irish provide most of the key contenders for me with Rite of Passage (previous winner and lightly raced 9yo), Simenon and Saddlers Rock. I have already put up the latter in Tuesday’s blog and think he will be trained to the minute for this. He was fancied last year and things didn’t quite go right for him but the trip is ideal and while he goes on most ground if it stays on firm side he will be suited better than most.

If there is to be a shock I think Biographer is quite unexposed and his reappearance run reads very well now

Saddlers Rock (now 9/1 with William Hill) remains the  recommendation with a small ew interest on Biographer at 20/1 or more (as I write I see Pricewise could have scuppered any chance of that price now though!)

 

4.25 A very competitive handicap but two horses here already look above this level in Wentworth and Cape Peron. The latter is a horse I have particular fondness for and still looks leniently treated here to me.

Weather is again a factor. Henry Candy has said he is doubtful to run if ground is fast. The forecast rain will help him and if it doesn’t materialise it could just be a case of getting the money back as he won’t be risked unless the trainer is happy

1pt ew Cape Peron 7/1

 

5.0 The best renewal I can ever remember of this Group 3 event – and the first 5 or 6 in the betting could all be a grade or two higher than this. None of them stand out so I’ll just be happy to watch and have no bet

 

5.35 Another competitive handicap. In years past I remember two subsequent multiple Group  1 winners finishing in the rear here after a barging match at the back of the field – Celeric and Pilsudski. It just goes to show that the best horse needs luck in running in a race like this

I can’t see anything here reaching the dizzy heights of those two but think that Godolphin’s top weight Cap O’Rushes doesn’t have that bad a mark judged on his reappearance effort and could be worth a little tickle

0.25 pts ew Cap O Rushes at 20/1 or higher

 

Good luck all – thoughts and comments always welcome

 

Paul

 

(i’m told that blue would be a likely colour for the Queen’s hat today for anyone liking that bet – but its in no possible way a recommendation from me :))