thefinalfence

A belated Happy New Year to all!
The blog has been quiet since November while I have been having adventures in New Zealand. With videos now scrutinised from the time I was away it’s time to put together a January Ante Post briefing. I did similarly last year with some success when 25/1 pick O’Faolains Boy did the business at Cheltenham the following March.
That was the springboard to a very successful period for the blog selections. Alas, Aintree and Royal Ascot were more forgettable so 2014 ended with 218 pts staked and 213.91 pts returned – a loss of 1.8% on the year ( I still can’t believe that 50/1 pick Inchila didn’t get placed in the Oaks though!)
Once again overly soft ground prevents too much interest in the immediate racing calendar but it’s now time to get active with some Ante Post picks again as the Festival gets ever nearer.
To keep a closer eye on profit/loss this year I’m assuming a bank of 50 pts is being held at the start and base staking around that
Here’s the verdict for the current Ante Post Value in weeks ahead:
Cheltenham:
Champion Hurdle 10th March
No selection here but this already has the look of a race that could cut up with 3 obvious candidates – Faugheen, The New One and last year’s winner Jezki. I would not be at all surprised if as expected Ruby Walsh rides Faugheen to see old champion Hurricane Fly not turning up for the race (for me despite winning here twice his form has always been better in Ireland). I can’t see anything else threatening these three presently so at the prices would not put anyone off Jezki each way with ¼ odds available 123 and some Non Runner No Bet. He should be a different horse again on Spring ground and find it hard to see him out of the frame.
RSA Chase 11th March
Following the basis that Irish staying bred 7yos hold the sway here (now successful in 9 of last 10 runnings) proved highly profitable last year. I look for the same formula once again. All of the last 10 winners had at least 3 chase runs prior to running here to put some emphasis also on chasing experience.
Kings Palace the current fav is 7 and bred in Ireland. He needs another chase run to meet the criteria but of higher concern is his previous Festival performance. He looked to have all in his favour at last year’s Albert Bartlett but was well beaten by the time he fell. At the moment I do have a concern that all of his best form is before Christmas – and he certainly won’t have things all his own way in front this year with equally bold jumping Coneygree a likely challenger.
If these two do both turn up they could be their own worst enemies and I’m looking at two classy types who do meet the criteria to be beneficiaries.
Like O’Faolains Boy, Champagne West was 4th in the Albert Bartlett but has already proved himself an improved horse as a novice chaser this year reaching a mark of 152 in 3 starts over the course. They have all been over a shorter trip but he was beaten for pace by the classy Ptit Zig last time (will be a very tough nut to crack in the JLT chase at the Festival) and a step up in trip is now in stable’s plans. Baed on what he did as a novice hurdler, this should suit and I can also see improvement if he can get a good lead in the race (found himself in front far too soon on last two occasions)

The other is Southfield Theatre who hasn’t run since the end of November when soft ground would have been against him. It’s unlikely he will face that at the Festival where he ran a great race last year to be a narrow second in the Pertemps Final. That marked him as a solid 150+ hurdler when ground conditions are right – and there seems no reason why he cant match that over fences.
Although he is quoted by some firms for the National Hunt Chase, this would seem the obvious race for him with Paul Nicholls having no other main candidates now that Saphir Du Rheu is switching back to hurdles (the latter still quoted by many firms for RSA at time of writing despite this news!)

Both selections have already met the criteria of having 3 chase runs and their respective marks of 152 and 150 would easily be already up to winning an average renewal of this race
Recommendations
1pt ew Champagne West 16/1
1pt ew Southfield Theatre 20/1
Both widely available at time of writing http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/rsa-chase/winner

Albert Bartlett Hurdle 13th March
The novice hurdle event for the real stayers and I see some value here in Nigel Twiston Davies’ Blaklion.
It’s notable that his most impressive run was over 3 miles at this course when he was able to sit off the pace. He’s been beaten in shorter races when having to race from the front to try and expose stamina flaws in speedier rivals.

Here, I hope he can sit in behind again and the undoubted stamina can be used to pick rivals off once more.
He is going to be entered in other races but it will be a shock if this isn’t the ultimate target.
No More Heroes is current Ante Post fav and does look a good staying prospect but I do have reservations that the ground maybe quicker than ideal come the day
Dan Skelton’s Value at Risk could be a more potent threat. I have great respect for this up and coming trainer and this could be the horse to take him onto a higher stage – but currently he’s too short to back on what he has actually achieved – especially as it’s not certain which novice race he will end up in.

The selection could be vulnerable to an opponent with real class but I’m not sure if there’s enough guaranteed to be up against him yet that qualify on that score and he is now overpriced as a result.
Recommendation
1pt ew Blaklion 12/1 (Paddy Power)
There are too many other Championship races at the Cheltenham Festival with uncertain runners to get involved in as yet. The Gold Cup doesn’t scream out value anywhere as yet. Handicaps will have to be left until much nearer the time

An so the other recommendation comes in National Hunt racing’s showpiece event, The Grand National (Aintree, 11th April)
As posted last year, the optimum criteria is a 9,10 or 11 year old with previous ‘National’ raceexperience.
It’s also important these days not to show your hand too early to the handicapper (current fav Unioniste has probably already blown his chance with the handicapper by being upped to 159), and for trainers to keep their powder dry until weights are released in February.
I’m delighted that Godsmejudge appears to be getting the right kind of preparation and hasn’t been seen so far this season (today being pulled out of Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock was a pleasing thing to see with conditions likely to be far too soft there)
He’s long looked an ideal type for this event through his Scottish National exploits as a novice and has now reached the ‘golden’ age bracket

Fingers now firmly crossed he can keep to his current mark of 147 before weights are announced. That should get him a weight below 11 stone which can so often be a telling factor in this race
Sadly the last vestiges of 33/1 went over the last few days but 25/1 or more is still acceptable odds for me now that he’s had the Christmas holiday I was hoping for.
Recommendation
1pt ew Godsmejudge 28/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Many thanks for reading and hoping for a profitable year ahead
As always comments are most welcome
Paul
(@Senor_Moodoir)

Initial Bank 50pts (8pts staked so far on Ante Post selections)

The Hennessy Gold Cup is the first major handicap chase of the season for staying chasers. Next Saturday’s premier event held at Newbury,has a typically competitive field on paper so far. Second season novices with future Gold Cup aspiration are often the desired type but established handicappers and Grade 1 performers are on the winners list also. It’s hard to knock anyone out on that basis but with soft ground looking likely the ability to stay in excess of 3 miles should be a major factor this year.
The Irish have a poor record in the race but Djakadam has been a talking horse for some time and was the subject of support last week to bring his price down to a high of 5/1 currently. His mark of 142 is probably right on what he has achieved so far but his home reputation is such that he could well be leniently handicapped. The Mullins/Walsh combination will prove irresistible to some but it has to be a negative that the only time he has raced in a really competitive chase his jumping let him down and he fell at the Cheltenham Festival last year. This race should be even more emphasis on jumping and allied to the fact that is stamina is totally unproven I will have to pass him by.
Many Clouds comes next in the list at 7/1. While he is a second season chaser he did have his peers in the novice division last year and I feel he is highly rated enough with a mark of 151 now. Stamina and fitness shouldn’t be a problem but I feel others are better treated – place potential still for him.
Fingal Bay comes next at 8/1 representing the bang in form Philip Hobbs stable. His novice chase season didn’t go to plan at all last season and he ended up reverting to hurdles. It seems a big ask to throw him in here off a mark of 153 with no chasing experience at top level and it’s only the stable form that keeps his price low for me.
Rocky Creek and Smad Place come next at 10/1. The former was second in this race last year on good ground – looking as if his stamina was stretched just a bit too far on the run-in. This was seen similarly in the Grand National. So with the ground likely to be much softer this year and a 5lb higher mark I will be avoiding him this time.
Smad Place has more of the traditional winners profile for this race. Only just touched off in last season’s RSA chase, he has winning form at this track and isn’t that badly treated on a mark of 155 considering he got to 161 over hurdles. I can see him progressing to Gold Cup level this season but do have a slight concern if he’ll be fit enough on his seasonal debut here. If he is close to 100% I can see him being a major player and the main threat to my selection which is….The Druids Nephew.

An old friend of mine having tipped him up at the Cheltenham Festival in 2013, The Druids Nephew seems to finally displaying the potential he showed early on in his career now that he has switched stables to Neil Mulholland. He ran off his mark of 141 when beaten at Cheltenham last time where he seemed to be ridden as if stamina was a concern. Ultimately he stayed the trip fine over a longer trip than this but perhaps gave the winner there Sam Winner (entered here but looks an unlikely runner) a bit too much rope up front in so doing and couldn’t quite peg him back on the run in.
He ran well enough to prompt the handicapper to raise him by 6lb to 147 but still gets in off his old mark here and so is consequently 6lb well in.
That fact alone should sound some warning bells that his price of 16/1 is plenty big enough. Barry Geraghty rode him on that occasion but could be claimed for one of the Henderson outsiders in the race this time. However, AP Mc Coy rode him the time before that and there is no obvious ride for the champion jockey in the race so far on the weekend that should see his return to action. This would seem to be the natural choice for him.
Recommendation
1pt ew The Druids Nephew 16/1 (still fairly general but expect to see prices go when 5 day decs come out on Monday morning)
Current ante post prices can be seen here:
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/hennessy-gold-cup/winner

Best of luck to all with whatever you back – this will be the last post on the blog this year as I take time off in December so hoping for an early Christmas present here!
Thanks for reading and will be back in the New Year

Paul

The Paddy Power Gold Cup (or as it will be ever be known in my mind in its original incarnation, the ‘Mackeson’) is for many jump racing fans the sign that top class National Hunt racing is back.
This year’s race seems as competitive as ever and weather may still be a crucial factor. After further rain on Thursday night the going is now described as Soft
As is often the case at Cheltenham a major stat to look for is for horses with previous good form at the course. Weight isn’t a major issue but those that win with a weight of more than 11 stone would not normally look out of place in a Grade 1 chase like the Gold Cup , Ryanair or King George later in the season. Irish raiders have only been successful once since 1980 – and we have to go even further back to find a winner aged 10 or more.
The race is usually run at a good pace and you would generally need a sound jumper who can keep a good position throughout
Here are the runners:

OSCAR WHISKY 9yo 11st 12lbs
The class horse of the race – his mark of 156 is still some way below his hurdles best of 167 so on that basis he could be considered well in . Soft ground isn’t a problem and trip is ideal but here come the negatives: Jumping became a bit of an issue last season as his level of competitivity increased and he fell at the Festival. That was his only race with a double figure field and with 18 rivals here and a good pace assured he will be under more pressure at the obstacles again. Many of the stables runners have been needing a run also in last few weeks so he may not be cherry ripe.

JOHNS SPIRIT 7yo 11st 12lbs
Last years winner from a mark of 139 – he won the same prep race this year over the course but now has a 17lb higher mark to shoulder with a rating of 156. He could be an improved horse this season but will need to be and prove he is better than a handicapper to be competitive off this mark. Not certain to confirm form with Persian Snow (5lbs better off for 1 length) and Ericht (12lbs for 7 lengths). Also huge weight differentials with Attaglance, Easter Meteor and Champion Court from last years race. Softening ground could be a minus with all best form shown on better.

EDGARDO SOL 7yo 11st 6lbs
Took ‘hugging theinside rail’ to new extremes on his last start when jumping into the wings of his fences. Did well to finish 2nd despite that but there isn’t enough in hos overall form to suggest he is well weighted here with a mark of 150

CHAMPION COURT 9yo 11st 5lbs
Favourite for this race last year when a disappointing 7th. Raced off 157 then and has now been dropped to 149. Behind Johns Spirit at the last Cheltenham meeting where he didn’t quite show his old zest again and for me he’s never been quite the same horse since a lungbursting effort in the 2012 King George. Martin Keighley had him out hunting recently the try and get him back on song again – if he can succeed he is well handicapped – but I fear previous toils may have left a lasting mark with ‘Champ’
KAPGA DE CERISY 6yo 11st 4lbs
Never wise to dismiss a Venetia Williams horse but it has to be a worry that this young chaser missed most of last season. Two previous runs on the course don’t really give any encouragement that this is his track

EASTER METEOR 8yo 11st 4lbs
Still in with every chance in last years race when falling 2 out (9lb better off with Johns Spirit). Despite the fall the handicapper didn’t give him too many chances afterwards and despite not winning he has an 8lb higher mark this year and also has missed any prep run this time. His supporters will be hoping that a switch in stable to David Pipe has brought improvement and he has him fully tuned up at home – because on the face of it he is up against it

SHANPALLAS 6yo 11st 3lbs
Irish raiders don’t have a great record in this race and it’s hard to see how this one is well handicapped with a rating of 147. No encouragement can be gained from his only previous venture on the course when beaten 50 lengths by Indian Castle

CANTLOW 9yo 11st 3lbs
Was a highly promising novice hurdler who has never quite fulfilled that potential over chases. Best effort last season was over Cheltenham’s New course (better off with Johns Spirit and Easter Meteor who were both behind that day). The slightly quicker Old Course may be against him here and with no AP McCoy available to ride we still await to see a jockey booking

EASTLAKE 8yo 11st 2lbs
Looked a two mile horse for most of his career but gave sign that further was possible when 3rd at Aintree last year ( he is a full brother to the stable star More of That who stays 3 miles). Return at Chepstow was encouraging and he was badly hampered when trying to get into the race. I would have been less encouraged by his chance if the stable had put up one of their conditional riders on board but the booking of Jason Maguire suggests there is some stable confidence here to me.

BUYWISE 7yo 11st 2lbs
5 lbs worse off despite getting beaten by Present View at the Festival last year – but could well have given him something to think about but for bad jumping. Made amends for that afterwards and definitely has an engine but these jumping frailties have to be a concern again now he’s back in a 19 runner handicap where keeping a good position is paramount. Runs off his hihest vere mark but does fall into the ‘progressive’ category

PRESENT VIEW 6yo 11st
A Cheltenham Festival winner last season and did nothing to dispel his chances here with a nice trial over hurdles at the last meeting here. Jumps well and ability to keep a nice position in the race should keep him in good stead.. He does have the highest mark of his career here but is going the right way. Not totally convinced he would be suited by much more rain (Presenting the sire usually an influence for decent ground and best performance came on Good to Soft. Remains a leading contender as we may not have seen the best of him yet.

ATTAGLANCE 8yo 10st 13lbs
Plenty of course form for the Northern challenger who is well in with others on his 4th in this race last year (11 lbs beter off for 6 lengths with Johns Spirit). His mark is actually 6 lb higher though than last year.
Attaglance has performed well at the Festival as well on two occasions so the course is obviously not a problem but on balance he has performed best in the Spring when the ground is decent. The threat of more rain would not appear to be in his favour

CAID DU BERLAIS 5yo 10st 13lbs
Hurdling form remains superior to chasing form for this one so far – and worrying that his novice chasing season was cut off early and he was reverted to the smaller obstacles last season. This race wouldn’t appear to be the type of event to ease him back in!

PERSIAN SNOW 8yo 10st 11lbs
Ran well on his reappearance when run down close home by Johns Spirit. He’s weighted to have every chance to reverse that form now. Also ran well at the Festival last year – may have finished closer but for being hampered on home turn – and marginally better off with Present View, Attaglance and Buywise from that race.
Philip Hobbs hasn’t won this race for a while but went close with Colour Squadron last year and has had a few other placed horses in recent years.

INDIAN CASTLE 6yo 10st 10lbs
Promising novice trained by Donald McCain last year. He won a competitive handicap on the New Course off a mark of 135 in January. The ground was heavy then so further rain should not be an issue.
He now races for Ian Williams (same owner flitted Weird Al between these two trainers in past) and isn’t harshly treated on a mark of 140.
A combination of the trip and the good ground could have contributed to his downfall when a beaten favourite at the Festival. Fitness will be the main issue here as he has yet to race this season

CEDRE BLEU 7yo 10st 9lbs
‘A bit of a monkey’ might be a kind description here – Cedre Bleu has some decent form but needed plenty of finessing in the saddle and has lost races he looked likely to win by finding very little off the bridle. No real encouragement that he has improved for a stable switch to Charlie Mann to be a contender here

ORPHEUS VALLEY 11yo 10st 7lbs
Has to be a big outsider on form and being an Irish trained 11yo , he would be defying every statistic in the book to be successful here.

ERICHT 8yo 10st 7lbs
Disappointing when pulled up at the Festival last year but has run well at this course before without winning. Would expect plenty of improvement on his seasonal debut and the pull in the weights gives him every chance to reverse form with Johns Spirit. Jockey booking of Andrew Tinkler would signify he is the stable’s number two but he can’t be discounted and I suspect Barry Geraghty’s choice would have some previous loyalties attached to it – further rain maybe against him though and he seems best on Good or Good to Soft.

KING MASSINI 8yo 10st 1lb
The bottom weight is taking on a much higher level than he is used to here. He’s yet to be competitive at his current mark of 131 and fell on his only venture to this course. Trip also appears too short

CONCLUSIONS:
Oscar Whisky and Buywise are the two most obvious contenders for me who are likeliest to let jumping ruining their chances. If they jump cleanly round they are contenders but that is too big an ‘if’ for me to support them in a race like this. Caid Du Berlais at slightly bigger odds may also need a health warning if being backed.
Irish raiders and those with no real course form are discounted straight away (Kapga de Cerisy, Shanpallas, Orpheus Valley, King Massini)
A few others are not handicapped well enough to win this race for me: Johns Spirit, Edgardo Sol, Easter Meteor, Attaglance (ground also against now),

This now leaves a shortlist of:
CHAMPION COURT
CANTLOW
EASTLAKE
PRESENT VIEW
PERSIAN SNOW
INDIAN CASTLE
CEDRE BLEU
ERICHT
I would take Cedre Bleu out immediately as he’s just too quirky. Champion Court is weighted well on his best form but appears on a downward curve right now so is also dismissed.
I think Cantlow may prefer a slightly bigger test of stamina and it’s a little disconcerting that he hasn’t been jocked up yet and the other McManus runners have.
I would like the chances of Present View and Ericht much more on decent ground so the further rain is a concern. It wouldn’t be a shock to see either win. Present View might well have been the selection on good ground but at around 6/1 he’s just a bit too short for me now in prevailing conditions
Indian Castle, in contrast, is probably the most obvious one in the race to have been suited by a deluge. As he’s only 6 we should expect improvement from last season. The value on him has probably gone earlier this week as he’s now down to a best price of 10/1. Not having had a run this season is the negative here and I wouldn’t say his trainer is particularly known for getting one ready first time up
This leaves me with the two suggestions for the race given current conditions and odds:
PERSIAN SNOW. Has shown enough good form on the course without winning here and softening ground should suit more than those around him on his reappearance run. Seems a sound jumper and with the stable having had several close shots at this race in past he looks the each way bet of the race for me at around 16/1 (note ¼ odds 12345 is available in some places)

EASTLAKE. The jockey booking of Jason Maguire was a major plus for me here with a certain Mr McCoy not available through injury. There is still a slight question mark about the trip but he jumps well and likes a good pace to run off – and has winning course form. There is just a chance that he could even improve for the extra trip as his brother has done.

Recommendations:
1pt ew Persian Snow 16/1 (Paddy Power/ Betfair Sportsbook both paying 1st 5)
0.5pts ew Eastlake 25/1 generally available

Good luck all
Comments welcome as always

Paul

Wide open handicaps take centre stage this weekend at Newmarket and York, with the centrepiece being the Cesarewitch , a long distance marathon at 3.50

It’s always a surprise to see how a race over 18 furlongs on a relatively straight course can be thought of as having a draw bias but stats will point towards a low draw having an edge in this race and those that got a high number have seen prices pushed out.

While there might be a slight advantage/disadvantage for those wanting a prominent position, I don’t see why prices should be pushed out quite so much here, and wouldn’t be put off backing a high drawn runner.

Never Can Tell (2011) and Tom Sharp (1984) both won the race from wide outside draws by racing prominently – both were excellent rides – but generally I’d be more in favour of a horse who has a high numbered box that needs to be held up and doesn’t waste excess energy in getting to the front before the one real bend in the race..

Last year, Scatter Dice won from 18, but started so poorly and came wide round the field that it’s hard to imagine she wouldn’t have won from any draw. Lieutenant Miller was just behind in 3rd from stall 32 after holding every chance.

King Revo in 2005 was given the perfect hold up ride to look all over the winner from stall 36, only to be caught close home by the phenomenon that was Sergeant Cecil (Inchnadamph out of stall 33 chasing them both home)

As I’ve discounted the draw angle a bit, time to pinpoint a few runners on some criteria that I think matter more

Last years race:

It’s often noticeable to see horses running in this more than once and consistently performing well. Aaim to Prosper was a real race specialist; Caracciola in 2008 also seemed to thrive here, and we can find others in past results who have won / run well in the race more than once – Distant Prospect, Mamlook, Inchnadamph immediately spring to mind. It’s probably because it’s the only real long distance handicap of the year that is guaranteed a good gallop throughout that brings out their best performances

From last year therefore the main candidate would appear to be the second, Waterclock (draw 3). He’s on a 6lb lower mark this year but this is where the positives end. He changed stables after this race and hasn’t shown any form since to suggest he has retained that ability. Not far behind were Jonny Delta (draw 16 – similar mark this year) and Moidore (draw 4 – slightly hampered and could have finished closer –likes soft ground)

I’m less inclined to use the ‘Cesarewitch Trial’ race as a pointer since its usually a smaller field and (like this year’s renewal) run at a slower pace. This year, Big Easy (draw 2)and Ray Ward (draw 32) both ran well in the race (Mubaraza didn’t perform at all well) – at least it shows their ability to act on the track

Stamina:

With a good pace highly likely , the ability to stay further than this 2ml 2furlong trip is paramount. A few good dual purpose horse have won the race but commonly most of them were effective over 2.5 – 3 miles over hurdles

This sort of puts me off the fav Quick Jack (draw 12) a little who hasn’t really convinced that he wants further than 2 miles over flat or hurdles as yet. His price is no doubt influenced by a fear factor involving his trainer Tony Martin (well known for a plot) –and he isn’t certain to confirm Galway form with Swnymor (draw 34 – another who has to prove himself on the stamina front and may have a preference for softer ground). Tony Martin did land the race with Leg Spinner in 2007 (an expensive race for the bookies) but that one was effective at further over hurdles

Nearly Caught (draw 5) and Rhombus (35) are others who have stamina to prove amongst the favs though both have looked like they could get further than 2 miles in the past. De Rigueur and Communicator will also be stepping into some unknown territory.

The Ascot Hcap and Goodwood Hcap are the two most similar events in the calendar that would advertise stamina. We can take Sohar ( draw 36) and Ray Ward from the former race this year (latter very unlucky in running) ; Teak (draw 27) and Ray Ward from the latter (pictured fighting that one out)

Ground:

It looked like the rain would have an effect in this earlier this week and soft ground was likely. It’s currently good with both sunshine and scattered showers possible so could go either way

Those with a big preference for softer ground; Big Easy, Moidore, Swnymor

Chances decreased by rain; Ray Ward, Teak

Conclusion;

The one that ticks most boxes for me is Ray Ward. His draw at 32 might be perceived as a negative but he needs holding up anyway. Last time he wasn’t suited by the slow pace and some late rain and under current conditions I expect him to reverse form with Big Easy. His stamina is guaranteed and he could well have gone close to winning the Ascot Stakes earlier in the season but for being terribly hampered on the home turn. He gets a 5lb pull with Teak on Goodwood running – and has Newmarket course form which that rival doesnt

As long as good ground (or faster remains) he looks the best value having been pushed out to 16/1 for his draw. If the rains were to come and the ground to soften then his chance would diminish.

(In this scenario Big Easy and Moidore may become bigger players – though on current ground I do have a little niggle that Moidore wont have quite the pace to stay prominent from his low draw)

For a big priced outsider I look to last years 7^th Jonny Delta. A replication of that effort should see him figure in the finish again. He advertised good recent form at Ayr and the same connections came very close to winning this race in 2010 with La Vecchia Scuola – I suspect they have had the race in mind again for some time and he has just scraped in with a nice low weight

Whatever you back though look for the place terms carefully!

At time of writing ¼ 123456 is available with some, 1^st 5 with others…those offering ¼ 1234 should be avoided unless the win odds are noticeably higher

Selections

1pt ew Ray Ward (BetVictor 18/1 ¼ 12345 or Betfair Sportsbook 16/1 ¼ 123456)

0.5pts ew Jonny Delta (50/1 with 365/Skybet offering ¼ 12345; 40/1 Betfair Sportsbook ¼ 123456)

*RESULT – Neither got too competitive – Ray Ward crept into the race to have a chance but then couldnt quicken with the principals. I was a little unnerved in the morning that his trainer David Simcock didnt tip him on C4 and picked his stablemate and a horse from another stable in front of him! Maybe he was aware that Ray wasn’t in same form as earlier in year? I did think the winner, Big Easy was a big contender idf there was cut in the ground so did get caught by surprise a little as the rains hadn’t arrived. He has a very workable mark when going back over hurdles but this won’t have been missed by anyone so I don’t think we will see hiom overpriced for anything for a while *

LOSS 3pts

For the other big handicap at York at 3.30 Coral Sprint Trophy

A highly competitive race with many capable at listed or even Group 3 level. Aetna has good course form and is bound to be popular but too skinny for me in such a race at around 7/2.

With soft ground looking likely, I am swayed towards my Ayr Gold Cup pick Supplicant, back on the sort of ground which suits him most. He lost all his low draw advantage at Ayr with a tardy start and never got into the race but showed shortly afterwards at Ripon that his time wasn’t far off. A Group 2 winner as a 2yo when conditions were soft, his mark has gradually slipped this season and Jack Garrity’s 5lb claim is an added bonus

At even bigger odds I can’t ignore the price about Arnold Lane who was rated 107 this time last year and gets 97 here. 7 furlongs is probably more his trip but the softer ground might blunt a few others. He won’t have been suited by the small field and having to make the running last time, and earlier season form over 6 furlongs and fast ground was always going to see him at a disadvantage

I would have preferred to see one of his regular riders on board but 50/1 is very big when you see how much better off he is with Spinatrix and Highland Colori from Doncaster on soft ground last year (16lbs for 4 lengths and 12lb for 5.5 lengths respectively)

Selections

1pt ew Supplicant 16/1 (365)

0.5 pts ew Arnold Lane 50/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

*RESULT

Supplicant was moutning a challenge when become embroiled in a barging match and losing position. In truth I’m not sure it cost him a place anyway. Arnold Lane ran ok but just out of the money – 7 furlongs on this mark should see him returning to the winners enclosure but not sure if there is a race left for him this year *

LOSS 3pts

Thanks for reading and wishing a profitable weekend to all

Comments as usual most welcome

Paul

A bumper weekend in store and too much to tweet so thoughts for the main races that take my eye over Arc weekend

Saturday
2.05 Ascot
Hard to escape the claims of Muthmir even at his short price here having skipped a Group 1 race for this. He looked a Group 1 horse last time and should be a level above the opposition here. Justice Day is a nice type at this grade but has a tough ask for a 3yo in not getting any weight from the year older selection
Selection: Muthmir 4pts 5/4 or better

UPDATE * The rains came and Muthmir became a Non Runner* (stakes returned)
3.50 Ascot
Highland Acclaim was always in the wrong place last time at Ayr – having to come from behind away from the stands rail never gave him much chance but he still looked the one to take out of the race for the future. The extra furlong here should suit and he’s just preferred over American Hope who has also been unlucky this season and has run well here twice in defeat.
Selection; Highland Acclaim 1 pt ew 7/1 or better

UPDATE: Softer ground didnt help Highland Acclaim’s chances and he never got very competitive – needs a return to decent ground or that may be his season over (loss 2 pts)
2.55 Newmarket
I backed a different horse when Local Time won last time and was surprised how easily she won. Immediate impression was that she was a Group class filly and although it’s a furlong less here and this is not an all weather track, I think she should be vying for favouritism with Godolphin’s other runner Yodelling
She opened at 6/1 earlier today and as I write 4/1 is beginning to disappear so the value is starting to wain
Selection; Local Time 2pts win 4/1 or better if still available

UPDATE: Local Time didn the business but it was a close call and had me sweating until close home. Two withdrawals at the start meant a R4 deuction of 25p in £ – 4/1 becoming 3/1 but still somewhat better than the SP return of 7/4 (profit 6pts)
3.05 Redcar
Limato stands some way ahead of these on form and despite the big field seems a solid fav at 7/4. The only threat I can really see is one he has to give weight to – Mattmu. Some firms offer ¼ odds 1234 here but I will struggle to get on with any of them – or else I would be availing myself of some of their 7/1 with those terms
Selection ; Limato 2pts 7/4 or better (dont ignore Mattmu ew ¼ 1234 7/1 or better if available)

UPDATE; No sweating here as Limato cruised home to get 3.5 pts profit. As high as 9/4 was avaialble in morning with softer ground expected but this didnt really materialise and he was punted heavily on the track to end up with a 6/5 SP return

Sunday
Prix de l’Abbaye (1.00)
I think some firms have overreacted to the effect of the draw here in the idea that low numbers have a big advantage. That may be true on soft ground but when it’s Good( like it most probably will be on Sunday) the evidence doesn’t support this so much
In the last 10 years when ground has been similar, Desert Lord and Var both made all from stalls 12 and 13 respectively (with similar drawn horses following them home).
With a lot of pace coming from the higher draws again this year I am sticking with old friend Stepper Point (stall 14) who has been pushed out to a nice double figure price because of his perceived disadvantage. Can expect to see him and Cotai Glory forcing it early from the higher numbers and on a course that favours front runners I hope he will stay there. Sole Power and Catcall both have to be covered up to arrive late on the scene – they have to be potent dangers but on this course they will both need that bit of luck in running to get there
With some firms offering ¼ odds 1234 that is the play here
Selection; Stepper Point 1 pt ew 10/1 (Hills ¼ 1234)

RESULT ; Stepper Point got to the front as planned but couldnt maintain it and finished unplaced – possibly went too fast too early LOSS 2pts

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (3.30)
The centrepiece of the weekend and a really difficult conundrum to solve – risking the house is not advised!
Some firms do offer ¼ 1234 and that must be used for ew plays
The draw has again affected prices today with history on the side of a single figure box.
With just one likely front runner in Montviron, tactical awareness could come to the fore, and I think that is against the three Japanese raiders who come here without having run a trial this year and don’t use local jockeys. (Just A Way looked ultra smart earlier in year but stamina here is a big question mark)
I have a feeling that Taghrooda may have left her chances behind after a hard race at York last time when losing here unbeaten record so the shortlist comes down to these 4 in their betting order:
ECTOT. Chosen by Benoist instead of the stamina questionable Avenir Certain. His trial looked the most impressive with a telling bust of pace to go from last to first. Rated as better than his previous Arc winner Helissio by his trainer Elie Lellouche, the one main question mark is will he get into trouble trying to come from the back of the pack here. Draw 10
TREVE. Last year’s impressive winner hasn’t been herself this year but has started to please Criquette Head in the final build up. Thierry Jarnet has won the race 3 times and his experience could be vital. Her win last year is still the best piece of form in the race so she can’t be totally discounted here. Draw 3
RULER OF THE WORLD. Last year’s Derby winner was a bit of a forgotten horse until winning his trial in the Prix Foy. It would be ironic to see him and Frankie Dettori to win after both have been previously discounted from the race. Dettori is the most successful Arc winning jockey in the race and now that Ruler of the World has proved he can perform well from the front of a race, I think Frankie can use his stall 6 to optimum use. If the pace isn’t furious he could have the perfect position to kick on for home early and try to steal it
FLINTSHIRE
Beaten by jockeyship in the Prix Foy and the representative of always to be feared Andre Fabre ( 7 wins in this race). He was easily beaten here last year when the ground was too soft but should have the ground to his liking this time. He had looked really good prior to that and would expect his trainer to have him cherry ripe for this. Being beaten in a trial isn’t a handicap to winning the Arc for Fabre runners as Subotica and Peinter Celebre have previously proved. Draw 4

Given their respective prices selections are both with Hills who again offer the necessary ¼ 1234
Ruler of the World 15/1
Flintshire 25/1

1pt ew each

RESULT:

Treve recaptured last year’s form so at least the shortlist gave out the winner. Flintshire ran a fine race to claim second and provide some profit. Ruler of the World had ideal positioning early but just wasnt good enough at the business end of the race. Looking forward to next year, Kingston Hill ran a fine race from a really bad draw – given a better draw and softer ground he seems tohe immediate one to take out of the race for 2015!

Profit 3.25 pts

Bonne chance to all over the weekend!

Thanks for reading – comments as always most welcome

Paul

Saturday evening update:

One small bet to add to the portfolio tomorrow at Longchamp

2.45 Prix de’ Opera

A Group 1 for fillies only but no obvious star in the line up. Ribbons and Sultanina have already won at this Group 1 level but it has to be said that both races were an even lower level than this (Ribbons also raciong on much softer going)

At a big price I’m taking a chance on LAVENDER LANE who hasnt raced on decent going like this since a rather unlucky run in the French Oaks. She wouldnt have beaten the winner that day but would certainly have been closer but for running into a wall of horses in the final furlong. There certainly wouldnt have been much between her and Shamkala who reopposes here but the prices don’t reflect that. I’m willing to forgive her efforts since on much softer ground with the odds available.

Suggestion 0.5pts ew Lavender Lane 22/1 (Hills, Ladbrokes – both offering 1/4 odds 123 on this race)

RESULT; Again Lavender Lane got behind horses and ran into trouble, otherwise she might well have placed. Unfortunately 1pt loss but one to keep in notebook in hopew one day she gets good ground and a good gallop.

Overall Weekend Performance

17 pts staked

24.75 pts returned

7.75 pts profit

Another quick run through for three races on Doncasters’ Leger day card that are of interest tomorrow:
2.05 Estidhkaar is obviously the one to beat but I was quite surprised by the price differential between his two biggest rivals – Belardo and Glenalmond – which I think must be trainer related to some degree.
Glenalmond still looked a bit raw when staying on nicely into 4th in the Gimcrack last time. He gave an impression to me that he could be the best horse in that race ultimately and the step up to 7 furlongs should suit (as it did for his full brother Wootton Bassett). Only just ahead of him that day were two rivals who had previously just finished ahead of Belardo in the July Stakes. So the relative quotes of 11/4 and 7/1 seem strange to me and I’m happy to take the one I think is wrong – Karl Burke’s 2yo strike rate this season speaks volumes so he shouldn’t be underestimated.

1.5pts ew Glenalmond 7/1

2.40 Don’t be fooled into thinking the Portland Hcap is a 5 furlong race – there are another 140 yards to cover which makes it nearer 6 then 5.
So I’m favouring two bigger prices who I think will be ideally suited by this ‘in between ‘ trip.
Seeking Magic has something to make up on Muthmir and Intrinsic from Stewards Cup form but he did a bit too much too early there when having to race on his own. He is ideally suited by a strong pace he can come off and with Addictive Dream and Bogart drawn quite close I’m hopeful they can give him the tow he needs.
A similar path into the race may also help Boomerang Bob who ran a fine race in the Wokingham and has dropped down in the weights enough to be a contender here. (Back on a straight course after two runs round Chester’s awkward turns)
Hopefully should see some firms offering an extra place here later but for now happy to recommend both at the standard ¼ 1234
0.5 pts ew Seeking Magic 20/1
0.5 pts ew Boomerang Bob 25/1 or better

3.50 The centrepiece of the card – the last British classic of the season – the St Leger
The ground has been a concern for the fav Kingston Hill most of the week but he now seems a likely runner with trainer happy that it isn’t too fast.
The trip is more of a concern for me. Despite his second in the Derby, I’ve always pictured him as more of a 10 furlong type and I do have my doubts about him getting home in a strongly run stamina test.
Snow Sky is another who may be at his best at 12 furlongs and is pushing his boundaries here
So I am inclined to look outside the obvious favs here and think Scotland is the value each way pick. He showed that stamina was his forte when coming from off a strong pace to be third at Royal Ascot (Snow Sky behind). Connections don’t think the track suited so well at Goodwood last time and he ran much more prominently. I hope to see him kept a bit further back tomorrow and be delivered in the final two furlongs. I’m quite hopeful in these circumstances he can reverse the form with those that beat him there
Somewhat’s price is also a little big for me around 33/1 on that Goodwood run (ground too soft for him last time). His Eclipse 3rd (Kingston Hill 4th) is widely regarded as a bit of a fluke but there’s enough in his form on decent ground to think he shouldn’t really be the price he is
0.75 pts ew Scotland 20/1
0.5pts ew Somewhat 33/1

A few near misses last week but some good place prices would have been rewarded for anyone combining in multiple bets (the less said about Havana Cooler though the better!)

Good luck with whatever you back
Comment as always welcome – thanks for reading

Paul

Quick Summary for Saturday 5th September:

3.30 ASCOT
Competitive handicap with many likely improvers. Not sure if Penhill got home over a longer trip last time and he remains on my radar – but maybe might need more ease in the ground.
I’m backing GWAFA ew 12/1. Eyecatching jockey booking coming across from Ireland for one ride. Think this one could improve plenty on his last run and double figure odds are too generous

1pt ew Gwafa 12/1

3.15 HAYDOCK
Much depends on whether Haydock gets overnight rain here but as long as it doesn’t get much (in which case he may not run) then I have to be with HAVANA COOLER at 5/1.Narrowly beaten by Van Percy last time who has franked the form since – this looks a weaker race.

1.5 pts ew Havana Cooler 5/1

3.50 HAYDOCK
Richard Hughes has formed a great relationship with Sole Power but it’s hard to get away from the fact he has never won over 6 furlongs. It’s often a tall order for 5 furlong specialists to perform as well at 6 as the pace of the race can be so different.
MUSIC MASTER was my fancy for the Nunthorpe and gets the vote here – he was pulled out of that race with a bad scope but can’t imagine Henry Candy would run him if he wasn’t 100%. He stil has improvement over this trip and was unlucky not to be much closer at Royal Ascot but for being on wrong side of the course. 8/1 with 1/5 odds and an extra 4th place availablle at Hills and Corals.
BACCARAT is an interesting outsider and was too big earlier in the week at 40/1. Draw could have been better but he shouldn’t be far away on official ratings and is still of some interest if anyone offers over 20/1

1pt ew MUSIC MASTER 8/1 (Hills/Coral)

5.30 HAYDOCK
Two took the eye, MIZZOU is from a nice family and is improving with each race – the extra distance should suit well . But at more than double his odds, INTENSE TANGO is the main selection at 12/1. Karl Burke’s runners are often overpriced but he’s proving his worth as a trainer to follow this year and this one is also improving with each run. The 3lb claim could be vital

0.75 pts ew INTENSE TANGO 12/1

Sorry for the shorter than normal blog but a bit too much to Tweet here!

Good luck

Paul

The final day of the Ebor meeting approaches with the highlight at 3.50
If forecasts are correct we should have had the most of the rain by now so going should be good, if not slightly on the fast side of good
Three races are of interest to me:

2.40 Some promising types who may still have something in hand of the handicapper here. ..and there is also Uradel, sent over by Willie Mullins with only low grade French form who could be literally anything (the market should tell us more tomorrow)
Connecticut, Battersea and Penhill head the list of types who could be ahead of their ratings . If the first named wins he may even be mooted as a St Leger possible. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these triumph, it is Penhill who gets the nod from a price perspective.
His trainer is less well known but most capable and I think that’s the only reason he is nearly double the price of the other two at 12/1
0.75 pts ew Penhill 12/1 (general)

3.15 There’s no standout star in this year’s Gimcrack for me. Baitha Alga won well at Royal Ascot but nothing has come out since to advertise the form, while Beacon may have been unlucky at Goodwood but the opposition was not that great.
Jungle Cat holds arguably the best 6 furlong form for me and shouldn’t be dismissed but I like the chances of two Northern runners here who are totally unexposed.
Bryan Smart has trained some good youngsters in the past and I doubt he would run his unbeaten Fendale here unless he thought he was up to the task. This is a league higher than he has competed in , but his victim last time, Teruntum Star, also runs here. This suggests that it was a fair race they competed in last time
Glenalmond is the other. A full brother to Group 1 winning Wootton Bassett, he was far from the finished article on his debut. Karl Burke was narrowly touched off in the Acomb Stakes earlier in the week with another of his juveniles – and he has a useful string this year. I find it fascinating here that connections have passed up a chance of running this horse of a very generous looking mark of 75 to go straight for this higher grade
1pt win Fendale 10/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5 pts win Glenalmond 208/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills, Boyles)

3.50 My favourite flat race of the year – the Ebor H’cap -and as mentioned earlier in the week, Pallasator ticks all of the boxes for me. I’m not concerned about his high draw while they favour the middle of the home straight (Salutation narrow loser from stall 18 in the first today).
He is much the likeliest winner for me as think he is better than a handicapper now.
There is just one concern for me and that is where the pace will come from in this race. There seems to be nothing in the field that might want to lead and a slow early pace can cause problems here – getting handy early in such a situation is key.
This was evidenced in the first race today where the first 4 home were the first 4 in the race almost throughout. It’s a hard course to make up ground on in such circumstances.
I hope Luke Morris, who knows the horse so well (and am delighted to see has kept the ride after recent sale to Qatar Racing), is aware of this and gets him handy early from his outside draw

I’ll also throw in Elidor at a big price. I put him up for a race at Royal Ascot where he ran well and think he still has the ability to be better than his current mark of 99. Would also like to see him handier than he was last time at Ascot where he was set a hard task off a slow pace.
2pts ew Pallasator 4/1 (general)
0.5 pts ew Elidor 25/1 (365, Ladbrokes and Sky all offer this and pay an extra place as well!)

Good luck to all and thanks for reading the final blog of the meeting

Paul

‘Watch the skies’ is still the advice for Day 3 of York’s Ebor meeting. 5mm fell on Thursday to take the ‘firm’ out of the going and more could be coming this evening.
So tomorrow could be good to firm or it could be good to soft..and hard to take definite views with this in mind.
For longer races, it was apparent today that coming up the centre of the home straight was necessary – something that should negate the usual low draw bias.
Thursday’s first race also showed once again that the stands rail is not a place to go. Anything drawn high in the sprints would be well advised to track towards central ground.
Some quick views for tomorrow:

1.55 Chancery has dropped down to an attractive mark and has good form at the course. I am just slightly put off as he has looked like a horse in need of a break on his last two starts and so plump for Pearl Castle instead. He wouldn’t want a deluge overnight but should be effective on most going and also has that nice C&D by his name. A good 5lb claim could make a lot of difference here
1pt ew Pearl castle 11/1 (Coral)

2.30 Pass!

3.05 A very closely matched field but I’ll be having a small interest on Windfast here. Again seems effective on most ground and had looked progressive until finding 1 mile too far on his last start
0.5pts ew Windfast 14/1 (general)

3.40 Ground is key here. Sole Power needs it quick so any further rain will be to his detriment. Conversely any more rain could set this up for a Hot Streak revival (don’t come up the stands rail though please Jamie!).
Rangali’s form is also soft ground based but he hasn’t encountered quick yet to judge if it will be against him. A literal interpretation of a victory over Catcall puts him bang in this – but did Catcall run to his best last time out? Still I can understand why the 16/1 on him is disappearing tonight and there are worse outsiders than him
Early pace is likely to come from Take Cover (stall 9) and Stepper Point (2). I take the view that Stepper Point was a shade unlucky when these two met at Goodwood having been left on his own early. If there isn’t a big rainfall I make him the best outsider here and worth a little opp with Hills who pay out for 4th place

0.5 pts ew Stepper Point 20/1 (Hills 1/5th odds 1234)

4.20 A maiden race where I have no view at all

4.55 Main bet of the day for me – we haven’t seen the best of Moohaarib yet and I think he’s just overpriced here at 13/2
1.5pts ew Moohaarib 13/2 (hills)

Thanks for reading and hope everyone has a successful day – any more updates because of going I will again post on Twitter

Paul

Wednesday’s opening day started badly for the blog when Music Master was suddenly no longer entered for Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes – a bad scope given as the reason.
The main selection for the day, Postponed was an impressive winner of the Great Voltigeur to get some profit on the board early (despite Kingston Hill’s withdrawal giving a large Rule 4 deduction of around 40p in £ to the price suggested)
The anticipated good ground proved well wide of the mark with course records broken, and several non runners as the going turned onto the firm side
The going issue now adds another conundrum to what is an already difficult Thursday card in terms of finding value. Rain is apparently forecast tonight or tomorrow – so will they water the course or not.
It’s very hard to pick anything out for tomorrow without knowing what it is going to be like underfoot – if it does stay firm we can expect further non runners.
The last two races of the day don’t appeal much as betting races to me anyway but some quick thoughts on the preceding 4 tv races:

1.55 I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many firms offering 1/5 123 on this race before and fully expected someone to go out with ¼ 1234 (Corals and Ladbrokes only ones I can see so far – hoping for more to join them). Kool Kompany is the form choice but has to give weight all round and I would be looking to oppose him normally. Kevin Ryan has a good record in the race and Fast Act isn’t far behind in terms of form – 6 furlongs is new territory for him but the stable’s Hototo won with a previous similar record in 2012 and he would be top of the shortlist.
Marcano and New Providence appeal as potentially overpriced at double figure quotes.

2.30 Patience Alexander ran so far below form last time that I can’t factor her in and see this as a 3 way affair between the market principals. Ground is key for me and I would be against Tiggy Wiggy if it stayed very quick, but for her if it were to revert to good or softer

3.05 Tricky handicap. Bronze Angel interested me at first glance having won over C&D recently. However I am perplexed that he races off a 2lb higher mark than last time – and he is actually worse off with Fort Bastion who finished ahead of him there. The winner of that Goodwood race, Red Avenger is only 3lb higher and would appeal again if it stays quick – Fort Bastion would be top of the shortlist on slightly easier ground.

3.40 King George and Oaks heroine, Taghrooda, is way ahead of these on form and unopposable.

In what could be a tactical race I favour Volume to come out second best and ‘betting without the favourite’ could be the most interesting option here.

For now with so many uncertainties surrounding the going and not much value in terms of prices around, it’s a no betting day for me as things stand tonight.
If anything changes tomorrow I will update on Twitter (@Senor_Moodoir)

Good luck to all and thanks for reading

Paul