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Chester Cup day

06 May

As a special request for one particular racegoer tomorrow – an extra offering for day one of the Chester meeting – though after a fairly dismal display at the Guineas weekend (10pt loss on recommendations) anyone can be advised for steering well clear of selections below!
It’s hardly an earth shattering revelation on Chester’s tight turning course that a low draw is a big advantage – even in the longer races. If heavy rain does get involved this can be negated but at the moment the going is good

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1.45 Lily Agnes Stakes
Two pacey David Evans trained 2yos should make hay from stall 1 and 2 here and I suspect that Cheerio Sweetie has the best form of them. She was beaten 1.5 lengths by Mukhmal last time in a decent looking affair. He is drawn way out wide now and is 9lb worse off so is going to have to prove himself a very smart 2yo to maintain his superiority. The low draw is built into Cheerio Sweetie’s price at around 3/1 but as long as she breaks as well as she has done in recent starts she looks the natural one to beat.

2.15 Cheshire Oaks
Aidan O’Brien has done well in this race in recent years and fields the fav here in Terrific. She doesnt stand out as a star of the stable yet and ran as if needing this trip last time – a word of caution though – her full sister Together showed all of her best form at a mile.
John Gosden won this race with Gertrude Bell after winning a division of the same Newbury maiden that Bright Approach won – it would be no susprise to see her build on that win where she looked quite green and follow up at this higher level.
But from a value angle I am drawn to Brown Diamond. Charles Hills’s father Barry used to farm this race in the past and his son looks to have a promising type here. There is a question mark on her stamina from her sire’s side but the dam comes from the Aga Khan’s stamina laden stock. She’s put up promising efforts on both starts behind others who have franked the form since and appeals at double figure odds here

 

2.45 Chester Cup
Two big things I look for here are proven stamina at 2 miles or more and previous form at the track – a decent draw is then an added bonus.
Normally form from previous running sof this race is important but it’s very odd to find none of that this year.
Communicator has the best course record for me but is a quirky type who hasn’t proved himself at this trip yet.
Angel Gabrial has shown form here and proved his stamina for 2 miles last time. He is probably the best fit for the criteria but is a hold up horse which could cause anxiety issues here (particulary with Jamie Spencer on board – who can overdo these tactics frequently). He is going to need some gaps to open for him at the right time I expect.
It’s not very exciting but I make the favourite Mubaraza a slightly safer proposition as he has a decent draw and can adapt to a more prominent position through the race. Having no course form is the one concern here but he seems a reliable sort at this level.
Mubaraza is therefore the marginal choice over Angel Gabrial (the two are closely matches on their last duel at Ripon) but I have backed both each way for the race

3.15
A draw of 7 isnt perfect but Ballista has strong form at this course and loads of early pace (has led Group 1 sprinters off the blocks before). There are several drawn low who haven’t quite mastered a speedy break in some of their races and he could take advantage of that early here.
10/1 is probably a price based on his draw but I find it attractive in the hope it isn’t as bad as others think ( he has won a handicap easily here before from stall 14 which is no mean feat!)

 

No fancies in the later races or me but Prince of Stars could be heard all over Newmarket before an encouraging debut last month. He can only improve after such babyishness but wouldn’t expect much of a price to emerge for him

Recommendations
2.15 Brown Diamond 0.5 pts win @11/1 (Hills, Betfair Sportsbook)
2.45 2pts ew Mubaraza 5/1 (general); 1pt ew Angel Gabrial 9/1 (Stan james)
3.15 1pt ew Ballista 10/1 (BetVictor, Skybet)

 

Thanks for reading

Paul

 
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Posted by on May 6, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Guineas weekend picks

02 May

Time for the first Classics this weekend with Newmarket’s Guineas meeting.

Some quick thoughts on the main races below plus a few selections at other races on the main weekend cards.

SATURDAY
2.40 Newmkt
Not a betting race for me but very interested to see the reappearance of Hot Streak who recorded a fabulous time when winning a Group 3 at Ascot last year. Entirely likely he may need this (and may find ground a tad too quick) and by jockey booking’s appears to be owner’s second string behind the fragile but very talented Pearl Secret.. One to watch with a view to the Kings Stand at Royal Ascot
3.10
Trading Leather and Penglai Pavilion some way ahead on ratings but struggling to think of any ex-Fabre inmate who has kept a similar level after moving stables for Godolphin (Sky Hunter already disappointing this season) which turns me agains the latter. Trading Leather is the form horse but always looks the sort who may need a run to put him right. He may be too good for these despite this but looks too short to take that chance on.

3.50
The 2,000 Guineas has not been kind to me for Ante Post betting with Berkshire and Be Ready both disappointing on their comebacks and not reaching the race.
Kingman looks unquestionably the horse to beat after his reappearance run ( Gosden horses seemed well forward that weekend he won so others could catch up a little) and is starting to get into value territory at 7/4

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Toormore and War Command look the most viable each way picks. The former always just does enough in races – a decent trait to have and we probably don’t know his full potential yet. The latter was a stunning winner at Royal Ascot last year but didn’t quite match the same standard after.
I’m not a follower of O’Brien stable hype horses and Australia far too short for me despite the ‘stable vibes’. I’m afraid I don’t rate Joseph O’Brien as highly as others either – and often think there’s value in backing Ryan Moore or Seamie Heffernan on perceived stable 2nd or 3rd strings instead (Ruler of the World, Was, War Command –all recent examples).
Kingston Hill looks like he is using this race as a springboard for the Derby so wouldn’t be surprised to see him being a bit short of 100% tomorrow
Noozhoh Canarias is another worthy of mention who travels from Spain for this. I don’t doubt he has the class for this level on what we saw at Longchamp last year but his style of running doesn’t scream out that he is a miler and 6-7 furlongs may be his optimum. If he can settle early his chances increase of getting a place are increased
So while it’s no recommendation it’s Kingman likeliest winner for me but Toormore and War Command both making some each way appeal at around 8/1 or 9/1 with ¼ odds widely available

 

4.25
Stars Above Me could have been let in slightly lightly here with a mark of 88 but firms take no chances around 3/1 mark. Meritocracy was given far too much to do in his comeback run by Jamie Spencer and can be rated somewhat better – expecting him to come on for that run as well he rates a bet at 10/1
Recommendation
1pt ew Meritocracy @10/1 (BetVictor, Tote, Betfred)

 

5.00
Having put up Postponed as a value outsider for the Derby, he needs to win this to cement that and I would expect plenty of improvement over this 10 furlong trip. Cloudscape is most feared as he won what looked a very hot hcap on this course last time (expect to see a few winners come out of that – the second has already franked the form)
I think Postponed is definitely the one to beat though and overpriced at 7/2 with some firms

Recommendation
2pts Postponed 7/2 (Corals) – 3/1 also acceptable

 

3.45 Punchestown
I’m always more of a viewer than a backer at this meeting but with Glens Melody having run already this week there is a real ‘filthy’ ew here on Cockney Sparrow behind the fav.
Granted, Annie Power is clearly the one to beat but we’ve already had shocks here this week. The emphasis is clearly on the place side of the bet as value though and even if Glens Melody were to pull out the case would be even stronger with only a small rule 4 deduction

Recommendation
2pts ew Cockney Sparrow 7/1 or better (but be warned because of the nature of this race – some bookies may impose ew limits as it’s not really the sort of bet it would be in their best interests to take- so take what you can!)

 

5.30 Punchestown
Regal Encore has the look of a bit of plot here and 10/1 early show with Ladbrokes looks a bit big. Stable form has been a concern all season but he’s always looked better than a 130 horse and worth taking a bit of a chance on
Recommendation
0.75 pts ew Regal Encore 10/1 (Ladbrokes)

 

SUNDAY
More exaggerated waiting tactics from Jamie Spencer could have cost Café Society two wins last season and he could be a horse to follow this season. He runs in the 2.05 Newmarket and will be of interest but as its first time up this season wouldn’t want to see him too short when prices go up

The 3.50 is the 1,000 Guineas and a much more open looking affair than the colts equivalent.
Clive Brittain’s typically bullish comments about his Rizeena have seen her price halve in recent weeks despite only having racecourse gallops. She is a lovely filly but I do have this big doubt in my mind concerning the trip. Her pedigree screams out 7 furlongs and although she did finish 2nd over a mile on her last start – the first half of that race was slowly run and it wasn’t a true test. A strongly run mile could leave her a tiny bit vulnerable close home (worth also noting that in 3 attempts so far at hq – one on July course – she hasn’t yet won) . I would also have much preferred to see a jockey on board who has her ridden before.
Winter fav Miss France has to overcome a below par reappearance run. Andre Fabre always has to be respected whatever he sends across the channel but her price looks skinny now.
Ihtimal is my principal hope. She wouldn’t have been suited by the slow early gallop when behind Rizeena last year and was catching on her close home. She is fit from runs in Dubai and maybe more forward than most at this time of year. A slight concern is a couple of points walk in the market on Betfair in last couple of days – I hope that isn’t due to anything she did in a gallop a couple of days ago.

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I make another O’Brien ‘second string’ with Ryan Moore on board the principle danger. Again fit from a run, Bracelet got better the further she went over 7 furlongs at Leopardstown and this trip seems sure to suit much more on pedigree
Both Ihtimal and Bracelet are horse who should stay further than this mile and that is going to be important for me with a strong pace likely. (Apart from Rizeena, Lucky Kristale and Vorda are two others who may have distinct stamina limitations)

Recommendations
1pt ew each Ihtimal 10/1 or better; Bracelet 12/1 or better

 

Good luck over the weekend and thanks for reading

Paul
(blog back by special request of one follower on Tues night for Chester Cup day)

 
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Posted by on May 2, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Epsom Classics outsiders

21 Apr

The flat season really started to hit gear in the last 10 days with the first major 3 year old trials for the 2000 and 1000 Guineas in early May.
Looking further ahead to June, however and there were a couple of performances that took the eye for the Derby and the Oaks and where some decent odds appear worth taking

Epsom Derby 7th June
Still very early for many hands to be played in this but while it is an acknowledged trial for the Guineas it was interesting that Luca Cumani chose this race for the reappearance of Postponed.
Everything about his pedigree and his running style as a raw 2yo last year suggested that a 10 furlong minimum trip was what he needed and yet he was backed for this 1 mile race.
Not surprisingly he got outpaced after a slow early pace quickened up but he was staying on powerfully in the final furlong.
Dubawi’s stock tend to progress well with racing and I think we can expect to see some significant improvement when he faces a trip.
He is entered in the Dante but it might be most telling if Luca sends him to the Lingfield Derby Trial – a race he used as a springboard for his previous two Derby winners – Kahyasi and High Rise
Not all firms quote him as yet but 66/1 is available in a place and that’s an appealing price at this stage

Recommendation
0.5 pts ew Postponed 66/1 (1/4 123) – Stan James

 

 

Epsom Oaks 6th June
Winners of this are frequently unexposed types as 2yos but a notable race for spotting future talent was the 1¼ mile maiden for fillies at Newbury on the 11th April
Despite being a maiden the cast list of winners in last 10 years bears witness that trainers send some decent types to this event.
Dancing Rain (2011) and Eswarah (2005) both went on to win the Epsom Classic. Other winners – Vow, Gertrude Bell and Clowance all finished 4th at Epsom – the latter two also tasting subsequent Group level success. Folk Opera (2007) went on to record a Group 1 victory, while Pink Symphony also progressed to Group 3 glory in 2010.
Last year’s winner Banoffee didnt quite match those heights but did run at Epsom finishing 7th after coming from this maiden to win the Cheshire Oaks on her next start
This leads us onto the winners of the two divisions this year – Bright Approach and Inchila.
The former was part of a golden weekend of winners for John Gosden and still looked quite green – there doesn’t seem to be much gossip that Epsom is her destination as yet and could see her swerving that race so she is passed by for now.
Inchila, on the other hand is of much greater interest. She won her maiden easily, coasting in behind the leaders in the straight and then settling matters with a swift turn of foot.

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The win was all the more impressive after the way she pulled so fiercely early on in the back straight.
This freeness was also evident on her promising 2yo debut at Goodwood last year , where she was an eyecatching second behing Guineas hopeful , Amazing Maria
With a run behind her and hopefully a stronger pace, she could be seen in a better light still and there would appear to be plenty of untapped potential here.
12 furlongs wouldn’t appear to be a problem on breeding – and there’s some class on the dam’s side which contains many notable performers from the past that would have been seen racing for Geoff Wragg in the Sir Philip Oppenheimer colours
One slight reservation would be ground – her win at Newbury came on softish conditions. I would be a little concerned if ‘firm’ appeared in the going title
Again not many firms are quoting at this point but 50/1 will do for me at this stage

Recommendation:
0.75 pts ew Inchila 50/1 (1/4 odds 123 – 365, Stan James)

Comments as always most welcome

Thanks for reading and enjoy the flat season ahead

Paul

 
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Posted by on April 21, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Aintree results and Guineas Prospects

07 Apr

Fences are there to be jumped and sadly the main hope for this year’s big race ended up on the floor at Aintree’s biggest fence, The Chair. I hope Teaforthree is back next year and ridden a bit more positively again – he just didnt seem to be jumping with his usual elan after being kept back from the front of the race (presumably in an effort to help him get home).

Pineau De Re was a comfortable winner in the end and really wasn’t far off meeting the stats criteria. If I had counted the Ulster Grand national as a top staying chase like the English. Scottish and Welsh versions he would have done. A lesson learn there but this game is all about building on mistakes like that.

Ma Filleule won the Topham so impressively on Friday that many will be thinking of her already for next year’s National but beware. She could end up being handicapped out of the race after demolising her opponents off 150. The Gold Cup is an equally attainable target based on that run and I wouldnt put anyone off an early interest there at 33/1 – she is only 6 and could have further improvement to come! Her price should certainly be closer than it is compared to Holywell right now

Aintree results below:

THURS stakes profit/loss
0,5 pts ew HAWK HIGH @14/1 lost 1 -1
2pts ew CLARET CLOAK @9/2 3rd 4 0,25
1pt ew ANY GIVEN DAY @20/1 lost 2 -2
1pt ew SPIRIT OF SHANKLY @14/1 lost 2 -2
FRI
1pt ew BIG FELLA THANKS @16/1 lost 2 -2
1pt ew GIORGIO QUERCUS @25/1 fell 2 -2
1pt ew RACING PULSE @14/1 lost 2 -2
0,5 pts ew PORT MELON @25/1 lost 1 -1
1,5 pts ew THE GOVANESS @10/1 Lost (4th) 3 -3
SAT
1pt win SIMPLY NED @14/1 2nd 1 -1
2,5pts ew TEAFORTHREE @10/1 fell 5 -5
0,75pts ew VINTAGE STAR @ lost 1,5 -1,5
1pt ew SOLL @50/1 NR 2 0
1,5 pts SWING BILL @4/1 to finish top 10 9th 1,5 6
0,5 pts ew KASHMIR PEAK @20/1 lost 1 -1
0,5 pts ew SCOTS GAELIC @20/1 lost 1 -1

TOTALS 32 pts staked  -18,25pts loss on week

Adding this to Cheltenham selections the blog is now running on a 21.62 pt profit this year (from 98.5 pts staked – a 21.9% return)

So a disappointing week but still nicely ahead on the year

I tend to wind down my Jump racing interests after Aintree has finished and the flat will gradually take over – November is when it all starts again over the fences properly for me

Blog posting will be less frequent as my time is taken up more with the main summer tennis events and so most of my thoughts will be found on Twitter

Here’s a few horses I am looking to see again in coming weeks with the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas in mind

No 2yo impressed me more than Berkshire‘s last to first sweep in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. The form of that race worked out superbly and he sort of reminded me of another old favourite, Chief Singer, at the time.

He reappeared once after that at the back end of the season and was much less impressive but the overall feeling was that he was just a baby last year and this year is what it is all about.

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He should be back at Newbury this Saturday – I wouldnt be expecting him to be fully tuned up for that and a small field may not suit. As long as he runs well, I can only see him improving quite a bit more in the Guineas where the race should suit him better

In opposition on Saturday could be Be Ready, the other 2yo that greatly impressed me last year when winning at Doncaster in September. He hasn’t been seen since then and the stable can’t seem to decide at the moment if he is a Guineas or a Derby horse. saturday should tell us more but I’d be disappointed if he isnt a Group winner in waiting.

Australia seems a crazy price in the Guineas and that’s all about O’Brien stable hype – we’ve been there before and seen as many flops as successes. Toormore is the one with solid form who they should all be more wary of if he has trained on

For the fillies, Ihtimal ran behind Berkshire in the Chesham and continued to progress from there. The worry was that being quite small she wouldnt train on but she has been impressive in Dubai already this year and that could well give her an edge this early in the year. She is top of my shortlist for that race right now

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Rizeena may well be back this weekend and did very little wrong last year, proving that a mile was not too far for her when beaten by the ill fated Chriselliam on her final start (Ihtimal 3rd but not the best of rides for me there considering she had proven stamina). Her trainer knows how to win this race and she is the main danger for me.

The ‘dark one’ I have in mind for this race but maybe moreso for the season ahead is Amazing Maria. She took time to find her form in her first two races but then showed her true potential with two highly impressive victories at Goodwood – dominating from the front and using an impressive stride to have rivals in toruble a long way out. She hasn’t faced the class of opponents that Ihtimal and Rizeena has but is one to ignore at your peril

No recommendations on these – they are just ones I’d like to keep on my side and have high hopes for in the coming months – hopefully there’s a Guineas winner (or two!) listed in there

 

Thanks for reading once more

 

Paul

 
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Posted by on April 7, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Aintree day 3 – Grand National Day

04 Apr

A blank day for the blog on Friday unless anyone managed to get the first 4 bet on The Govaness in the last (with a firm that I cannot get a bet on personally so won’t include for resulting purposes) – she looked to come with a winning run but the combination of her penalty and losing ground throughout on the outside didn’t help close home. So unless anyone managed to avail themselves of that offer we end up with a 10 pt loss on the day.
Anyone who followed 3 mile handicap chase form at Cheltenham might have had a field day with the 1-2 from there, Holywell and Ma Filleule, both running out convincing winners. Neither would look out of place in next season’s Gold Cup on their performances today.

So now we come to Saturday with the Grand National the showpiece on the card:

1.30 Mersey Novices Hurdle
Odds here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/13:30/winner
surprisingly not many firms offering an enhanced ¼ odds a place on this race at time of posting

Cheltenham Supreme Novice hurdle form was highly advertised by Josses Hill and Sgt Reckless today and Wilde Blue Yonder represents the best of that here. He ran a solid race there and may well have won two others earlier in the year but for last fence falls. Now he has a clean round behind him, it has to be hoped he can go on from that and the extra half mile could bring some further improvement.
Chief threat for me is Oscar Hoof, who hasn’t been running at such a high level but impressed greatly when winning at Kempton last time – seeing off a strong travelling challenger in great style . It’s notable that Barry Geraghty picks him instead of Volnay De Thaix.
Not quite enough value in the market to tempt me in right now

2.00 Maghull Novices Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/14:05/winner

The Aintree version of Cheltenham’s Arkle is a tight looking race where the isn’t much between the principals.
Trifolium came out best in the Arkle but Balder Success and Hinterland both dodged that race (the latter having an unfortunate unseat in the Champion Chase instead)
Next Sensation and Simply Ned are very progressive types who have come up through handicaps and deserve their chance at this level. The former is an exciting front runner who should be better suited to this track than at Cheltenham.
Simply Ned has improved all through the season and could be the sort who will prosper with the gallop that will be set here. He is the selection on the basis that I don’t think his level of form is too dissimilar to his main rivals – but his price compared to them is much too high. It’s no shock he missed Cheltenham – the Richards stable have always had greater success at this course

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Recommendation
1pt win Simply Ned 14/1 (365, Totesport, Betfred)

2.50 Silver Cross Stayers Hurdle
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/14:50/winner

Aintree version of the World Hurdle sees At Fishers Cross (3rd in that) leading the market.
He is much the likeliest winner for me but I can see why Corals look to want to take him on at 15/8.
I’m not sure where the pace will come from in this race so it could be a muddling affair. He has had jumping problems in the past but it was a much cleaner display at Cheltenham where he was well beaten by two hugely talented rivals – but was clearly ahead of the rest.
I think he could be the leading 3 mile hurdler next year if his jumping is sharpened as so many of his rivals may be changing trip or going chasing.
It’s not a betting race on this occasion for me

 

3.30 Hcap Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/15:25/winner

No surprise to see Victor Hewgo favourite here – his form is closely tied in with Holywell and Western Warhorse who have boosted it considerably since. He may be a bit flattered by some of this but is clearly the one to beat. This is a competitive race though and odds are quite short around 7/2
Unioniste represents last seasons novice chase crop which doesn’t look bad now after recent performances of Lord Windermere and Boston Bob. His weight could be prohibitive here though,
The interesting one lower down the handicap is Saint Are, who has an excellent record at this meeting, winning twice at the Mildmay course. He runs off an 8lb lower mark than when successful in this race in 2012 and I would be inclined to forgive his pulled up effort at Cheltenham last time – a course he has never liked
9/1 available there now and if he gets to a double figure price I might have to play

 

4.15 Crabbies Grand National
The highlight of the meeting and here are the latest odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/16:15/winner

I covered the race more thoroughly when the 5 day decs came out on Monday here : https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2014/03/31/grand-national-2014/

This really is a race to hunt for value, particularly on each way betting with bookmakers falling over themselves to compete for best price and trying to tempt punters in with 5 or even 6 places. This really isn’t profitable for them to do so take advantage if you can get good win odds and extra places – its often going to be a loss leader for companies who hope to bring in new customers through the year in what is one of their biggest ‘shop windows’.
Make sure you take a price – most firms wil offer best odds guaranteed in case the SP is bigger – but the likelihood is that prices will shorten once on course bookmakers control the odds. So bet early take the price and get the value while it’s there!

The expected rain hasn’t really materialised since then so that’s against two stats picks – Hawkes Point and Mountainous
This leaves old Welsh National protagonists, Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude as the chief picks but on a basis of value I prefer the former for reasons stated in that piece, (Monbeg’s rider Paul Carberry will have to pass the doctor in the morning to ride as well after a fall in the Topham today). I think he should be more like 6/1 for the race but 10/1 is being pushed out there again this evening

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I can understand why money has come for The Package today after he chased home today’s winners, Holywell and Ma Filleule last time at Cheltenham. That was a fairly distant third though and I would rather judge him on the horse that finished around him than the two who were clearly dominant. When he was 33/1 he was interesting but quotes of less than 20/1 for ahorse who didn’t really seem to enjoy the fences on his previous try here aren’t particularly tempting)

 

So I’ll be sticking with my previous recommendations here
2.5 pts ew Teaforthree (now possible to get 10/1 ¼ 123456! with BetVictor – best win odds and best place odds is hard to knock)
0.75 pts ew Vintage Star 66/1 now available with some firms offering extra places)
(1pt ew Soll was advised in January but he was balloted out of the race which means we get money back on that bet)
*MORNING UPDATE – Extra Recomemndation *
1.5pts Swing Bill @4/1 to finish in first 10 – this market only offered on William Hill and the Betfair Exchange right now. In 6 attempts over the course, this old veteran has jumped round every time and the only time he didnt complete was a pulling up on very heavy ground in the Becher Chase. He’s probably one of the safest conveyances in the race and this price seems based on his win price rather than his course record. His November run over the course showed he has some zest for the course still and although competing for places is unlikely a top 10 finish certainly is a good possibility

 

 

5.10 Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
Awaiting odds from some companies here who haven’t joined the party yet so will post more on this either later tonight or tomorrow morning
MORNING UPDATE
A competitive event but I’m taken by the two John Quinn runners (he won the race last year with Cockney Sparrow) – the favourite seems a bit too short
RECOMMENDATIONS
0.5 pts ew each Kashmir Peak and Scots Gaelic – take 20/1 where available
Ignore Kashmir Peak’s Cheltenham run – he doesnt like the course and needs a flat track and reasonable ground – well weighted on his juvenile form last year. Scots Gaelic looked an improved perform,er last time and with Dean Pratt’s useful 7lb claim he comes here effectively on the same mark as he had then

 

 

5.45 Bumper
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/17:45/winner

This race has thrown up some quality performers in the past and can rival Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper in terms of class.
The New One and My Tent of Yours were the 1-2 in 2012 and Tidal Bay showed a glimpse of what was to come when 2nd at 66/1 in 2006.
No bets here. I’m hoping to see an improved performance from Our Kaempfer who ran far too free in the Cheltenham bumper – jockey bookings appear to suggest he is the stable’s second string though. It seems like Alan King prefers to run his best young horses in the bumpers at this meeting rather than at Cheltenham. He won the mares race yesterday so the valu pick for me would be McCabe Creek around the 20/1 mark. I don’t think he is necessarily the stable’s second string – Wayne Hutchinson has a good association with the owners horses in the past. He looked a good prospect first time up chasing home Puisque Tu Pars and reopposes here. Better ground should suit and King seldom has them ready first time up so we can expect to see some improvement

 

 

Thanks for reading once more

Have a great National day whatever you back!

Paul

 
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Posted by on April 4, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Aintree 2014 – day 2

03 Apr

Thursday’s blog selections saw Claret Cloak come closest in 3rd – Noel Fehily looked to be judging the race perfectly but weight probably just told close home. Warne came close to being a bet but the rain didn’t come and I held back a little there – his success just proves what an asset a quality amateur rider is in such a race
So the blog is running at a 4.75 pt loss on the meeting so far

Onto Friday’s card:

2.00 Novice Hurdle
Prices are here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/14:00/winner
Cheltenham Supreme novice form is represented here by the second, Josses Hill (should be suited more by this course) and the strong finishing fourth, Sgt Reckless. Against them we have two impressive handicap winners in Baltimore Rock and Art of Payroll – in both cases it’s hard to assess just who far ahead of their marks they were when they won. Amore Alato is consistent and will ensure a decent gallop but has already be shown to be a notch behind the top level. Throw in the classy flat performer, Mijhaar , back on a decent surface (exasperating horse to follow on the flat despite all of his ability though!) and this race is too hard to call for me

NO BET

 

 

2.30 Mildmay Novice Chase
Pricelists: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/14:30/winner

O’Faolains Boy was a great result for the blog when winning the RSA at Cheltenham. The way he and Smad Place pulled clear there suggested there were both Gold Cup horses next season and I hope to see him continue in the same vein here. At a price of around 9/4 or 5/2 I won’t be playing though – he owes me nothing and he had a hard enough race there – Barry Geraghty reported afterwards that he ran in snatches and didn’t feel as good as he did at Ascot. I am just a bit mindful that he may need more time to recover from that. Don Cossack fell in that race and Many Clouds was brought down. Many Clouds was behind O’Faolains Boy at Ascot and some will argue that the weight difference here will bring them close. For me though, Many Clouds was clearly second best there and needs softer ground to be seen at his best
Wonderful Charm’s best form comes at shorter trips and would need to see more evidence that this step up is what he needs.
The danger is Holywell, who came good at Cheltenham and Aintree last year and could be in the same vein again now. He travelled well within himself last time when winning a handicap at Cheltenham (looked totally the opposite when needing all of McCoy’s strength to win at Doncater)

An interesting race to watch but NO BET

 

 

3.05 Melling Chase
Latest odds: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/15:05/winner

Ballynagour won a handicap so impressively at Cheltenham that he could easily be up to this higher grade. It was suggested then that he was best when fresh so turning out again after only 3 weeks is a bit mystifying.
Boston Bob looked sure to win the RSA last year until falling and that form looks good now after the winner of that race, Lord Windermere won the Gold Cup! Boston Bob hasn’t really built on that this year though and mixing between chases and hurdles seems to indicate that connections aren’t sure what is best for him now
Module is the solid form horse and the one to beat after his third behind Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham. This is half a mile further but he runs like he should appreciate that. The stable had a winner on Thursday with Parsnip Pete so that augurs well also.
He’s almost a bet at 9/2 but not quite!

 

 

3.40 Topham Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/15:40/winner

The ‘mini’ Grand National isn’t far behind the big race in terms of spectacle. 30 runners compete over the full National course here but it’s significantly shorter trip. With so many runners, luck in running will be necessary here but the two I most like are:
Big Fella Thanks. At the age of 12, he’s plenty old enough for this (an age that isn’t good for stats) but I doubt many will come to this race having the wealth of experience over the track that he does. He should have been in this race when younger but connections tried to persevere with the Grand National. Twice he appeared a likely winner of that only to run out of petrol in the home straight. I hope they haven’t left this too late in life for him but this always looked like the race he was made for

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Giorgio Quercus. Experience over these fences is an asset and this one was performing well in this race last year until being brought down 4 out when still in with every chance. He was brought back at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago and ran a solid 6th despite being a bit fresh early on – he may have finished closer still but for a bad peck at the top of the hill fence. 25/1 looks too big
Recommendations
1pt ew Big Fella Thanks 16/1 – take 16/1 with firms offering ¼ odds 12345
1pt ew Giorgio Quercus 25/1 Boylesports ¼ 12345 (25/1 ¼ 1234 or 20/1 ¼ 12345 are also acceptable)

 

4.15 Sefton Novices Hurdle
Prices; http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/16:15/winner

Cheltenham novice hurdle form doesn’t always work out in this and there have been some big priced winners over the years. My suspicion is that the Albert Bartlett and the Neptune can be a tough test for novices at this stage of their career and the experience isn’t always recovered from by this meeting. Killala Quay represents Neptune form here and while it was a fine run, it could be tough to come back from that and follow up over half a mile further
The favourite here, Seeyouatmidnight, didn’t go to the Festival and has done little wrong this year, rising through the ranks and remaining unbeaten since a 66/1 success at Kelso. He’s a front runner who is tough and hard to pass but runs here on quicker ground than he was winning off over the winter.
On his second win, he accounted for odds on shot Racing Pulse, who is of great interest to me now he gets back on a decent surface. He also missed Cheltenham and comes here a fresh horse. I like his chances here
At big odds, Port Melon also is one to watch. He was going to run at Cheltenham until careering into the rails before the start of the Albert Bartlett and giving Daryl Jacob a long holiday with injury in the process. He should enjoy the ground and the trip and there was enough evidence from his one hurdles start before Christmas to suggest this ex point to pointer has a future at this game
It’s hard to know what to make of Capote who has only beaten 5 fairly ordinary rivals in two hurdle successes

Recommendations
1pt ew Racing Pulse 14/1 (general but look for firms offering ¼ rather than 1/5 odds 123)
0.5 pts ew Port Melon 25/1 (Stan james)

 

 

4.50 Hcap Hurdle
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/16:50/winner
As much as I have looked at this race, nothing is jumping out. Irish raider, Zabana has a progressive profile but the UK handicapper doesn’t seem to have been that lenient with his mark. A wide open race I am happy to leave alone

NO BET

 

 

5.25 Mares Bumper
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/17:25/winner

AP McCoy is an eyecatching booking for Alan Swinbank’s Molly Cat, and he’s a trainer always to be feared in bumpers.
But despite her penalty, The Govaness is the choice. She’s mixed it with the boys earlier in the year and ran very well against them – something that few others can claim in the race. She then followed up in a mares bumper at Cheltenham which I feel could have been stronger than this race.
She’s been kept back since then and looks to have been targeted for this. I think she should be the favourite so will be playing at the odds that are available

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Recommendation
1.5pts ew The Govaness 10/1 (Stan James) or even better 10/1 ¼ 1234 888bet if anyone can get that

Thanks for reading once more and good luck!

Paul

 
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Posted by on April 3, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Aintree meeting 2014 – day 1

02 Apr

The Grand National is the centrepiece of the 3 day Aintree meeting but there is some fine racing to back it up. Thursday’s card has some top notch entries but it’s a shame a few who looked possible to run have dropped out – many of the races have more of a ‘race to watch only’ feel about them now
Ground is currently good or good to soft depending on which track is being run on but there is a need to watch the weather closely – rain clouds seem to be never too far away this week if forecasts are correct
Many runners will come here after a last run at the Cheltenham Festival – many can solidify their reputation here but others will have peaked there and it can prove costly to expect form to always be upheld.
The Mildmay course, on which most races will be run, is a completely different track to Cheltenham – no undulations to deal with and built more for speed. The National course (used for the Foxhunters on Thursday, Topham on Friday and the Grand National on Saturday) is unlike anything else – some will adapt well and others will hate it.

Onto Thursday’s card:

2.00 4yo hurdle
Prices comparisons here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/14:00/winner
The Aintree version of the Triumph hurdle but no Triumph winner (Tiger Roll) attending this year. Guitar Pete is a solid performer who came out best of these here then in 3rd but many will consider Callipto to be an unlucky 4th after Daryl Jacob lost his irons as the race was just heating up. Callipto holds Activial on early season form – but that one skipped Cheltenham purposefully for this and could come here fresher.
Fox Norton was an Ante Post pick for me in the Triumph – he didn’t run in it but his form wasn’t particularly advertised by Broughton and Royal Irish Hussar there
At a bigger price I’m hoping to see another big run from Hawk High who won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. He did the blog a big favour there and won that race well, being close to the pace throughout and quickening nicely up the hill. As long as the ground doesn’t get too soft I think he’s the type to go on improving and is a touch overpriced here
Hawk High

Recommendation
0.5 pts ew Hawk High 14/1 (Stan James and Coral who both offer ¼ 123)

 

2.30 Betfred Bowl
Prices here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/14:30/winner

I’m one of the original members of the First Lieutenant fan club and he was a successful selection for the blog in this race last year where Menorah and Silviniaco Conti were among his victims. It’s unfortunate he missed this year’s Gold Cup where conditions could have suited him well. Silviniaco Conti finished 4th there but had a hard race and that has to be a concern – when he did win at this meeting as a novice he had missed the festival and came here as a fresh horse.
The danger is Dynaste though, who won the novice race at this meeting last year and comes here after Ryanair Chase success at The Festival
I think First Lieutenant or Dynaste will win but won’t be playing at current odds of 2/1 and 3/1 respectively
NO BET

 

3.05 Aintree Hurdle
Prices: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/15:05/winner

Would have been a lovely race if Annie Power had come over from Ireland but in her absence this does look a penalty kick for The New One – 2/5 isn’t my sort of price though.new one
Could be plenty of competition for second – Rock on Ruby and Grandouet have the best hurdling form from the past but both have been chasing instead this year and that could level the playing field with the others. I have no great view who will come out top for the runner up berth
NO BET

 

3.40 Foxhunters Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/15:40/winner

The first race of the meeting over the classic National fences.
Mossey Joe is well ahead of the field in terms of class and rating and as long as the ground stays good or good to soft it could well be a case of ‘if he jumps round he wins’.
If rain does come Warne becomes a bigger threat. A slightly unlucky 4th in this race last year he now has the services of Sam Waley Cohen on board who has such an excellent record over these fences.
It seems slightly strange to see such a race with ¼ odds 1234 being offered at some firms and there could well be a decent angle with this tomorrow if money comes down for the fav and pushes others out
Cool Friend probably hit the front too soon in the race last year and has performed well at Aintree before – this mare appears most of the big prices
For the moment it’s ‘no bet’ but that may change tomorrow

 

 

4.15 Red Rum Hcap Chase
Prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/16:15/winner

Traditionally novices do well in this race and Grand Annual form from Cheltenham is a big influence. Claret Cloak fits both of those stats and although 4 pounds higher than he was there when a close third, he may have been an unlucky loser after a critical blunder 2 fences out . Good or good to soft suits – as does a strong pace – something he should get with the likes of Arnaud and Sew on Target in the field. The race may favour lower weights in the past but I can’t really warm to those at the bottom of the handicap here. Claret Cloak has always looked a classy individual and I believe this course will suit him better than Cheltenham
claretclaok2</a
I’m not keen on Paul Nicholls’ runner Sound Investment here whose mark has risen to 140 after two easy wins in weak races.

Recommendation:
2pts ew Claret Cloak 9/2 (Totesport, Betfred) *9/2 already gone after a few minutes of posting – would take 4/1 also*

 

4.50 Manifesto Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/16:50/winner

Only 5 runners but very competitive. I could make a case for them all.
Oscar Whisky has to come back from a first fence fall at Cheltenham which prevents me following him here. Western Warhorse has to prove his Arkle win was no fluke over half a mile further. Really not sure if a step up in trip is right for Dodging Bullets. Good ground seemed to bring about plenty of improvement in Uxizandre last time – and it probably will in Fox Appeal too.
It all adds up to NO BET

 

 

5.25 3ml hcap hurdle
Latest odds: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/17:25/winner

2 against the field here:
Novice and those lower down the weights have a decent record in this race. Spirit of Shankly fits that criteria and seems the sort who will appreacite a step up in trip and some decent ground.
Any Given Day represents a stable that knows all about getting winners at this meeting. He was a failure at chasing and lost his way a bit over hurdles last season after encountering heavy ground. A recent bumper win showed he is no back number yet and his hurdles mark has dropped considerably to an enticing looking 140. The price just looks too big here to ignore
any given day
Recommendations:
1pt ew Any Given Day @20/1 (coral) – but 16/1 will be equally acceptable elsewhere
1pt ew Spirit of Shankly 14/1 (generally available)

 

As usual comments are most welcome
Good luck with whatever you support and thanks for reading
Paul

 
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Posted by on April 2, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Grand National 2014

31 Mar

G National 13
Another year has gone by and National Hunt racing’s greatest spectacle at Aintree racecourse is upon us once more.
With the forecast looking promising we can expect decent ground and a well run race. Anything can happen at the first few fences where the speed can be too much for some to jump accurately and its not until 7 or 8 obstacles have been completed before race riding can start to develop properly. It’s important not to get too far behind too early – midfield with a circuit to go is usually as far as you would want to be behind the leader

I covered much of the race stats in last years blog and as mentioned before there is a good guide to the date here http://www.grandnationalstats.co.uk/

The current runners can be found here http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=576664&r_date=2014-04-05&antepost=Y#raceTabs=lc_

And for up to date odds check here http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner

It’s very important to shop around here for the best value. Standard each way terms for a handicap are ¼ odds 1234 but as this is such a big event many firms will offer five places. BetVictor currently offer ¼ odds 123456. ( the one firm to avoid for each way bets would seem to be RaceBets if they continue to offer a ridiculous 1/5 odds 123!)
The more the number of places that are paid the less the win odds can sometimes be to make up for this concession. If you can get high win odds and extra places it really is the best of both worlds so choose carefully!

Be sure to use Non Runner No bet prior to the final declarations also – if the worst does happen and your horse gets pulled out you will not lose your money then.
The night before the race could also throw up better odds as firms try to push their product – but beware at 8pm on Friday night when Racing Post’s pricewise selection is officially released (its often apparent by market moves whet it will be prior to then) – expect any put up there to be trimmed significantly.
Saturday morning may some further price enhancements for horse not touched by the main tipsters

For stats suffice to say, weight is the one I look to most and I have a big leaning towards anything carrying 11 stone or less. Age and experience come next. 9 to 11 is the preferred age and previous course experience or proven form in similar events is highly desirable

And so onto the runners with my thoughts on most of the contenders (bear in mind that these are the current 5 day declarations and some may drop out before Thursdays’s final declaration stage):

1. TIDAL BAY age 13 weight 11st 10lbs ;trainer Paul Nicholls ;jockey Sam Twiston Davies
It will bring the house down if this popular veteran can triumph but despite the handicapper dropping his mark to 161 there are so many stats for him to defy. The last 13 year old to come close to winning was Aintree stalwart Rondetto in 1969. The last horse to carry this kind of weight to victory was Red Rum in 1977. Added to all of this, the more the ground dries out the less it will suit him and he could find himself outpaced. It’s hard enough to come from way back in this race as his style dictates but he would need some juice in the ground to have his best chance. Too much against him for me to fancy him but would still love to see him do well.Tidal bay
2. LONG RUN 9 11st 9lb; Nicky Henderson ; Mr S Waley Cohen
Another at the top of the weights, Long Run was at his peak as a 6yo when winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It’s not unusual for French bred chasers to start regressing earlier than others and while retaining plenty of ability he does seem to be going in that direction this season. I think his mark of 160 here is probably about the level he is now so again facing an uphill struggle off such a high weight. On the plus side, his rider has an excellent record in this race – on the downside Long Run has always been prone to miss the odd fence out and he wouldn’t want to do that here
3. HUNT BALL 9 11st 7lb; Nicky Henderson; Andrew Tinkler
If you believe the old adage that two and a half mile chasers are best for the National then you might give him a chance. I don’t believe they are and Hunt Ball only just gets 3 miles on a park course which rules him out for me.
4. TRIOLO D’ALENE 7 11st 6lb; Nicky Henderson; Barry Geraghty
Needs good ground but don’t quite think he has the class to carry this sort of weight here and it’s not ideal to hear he had a breathing problem in his last race. Has winning course form in last years Topham over a shorter trip and also as a 7yo has an awful lot against him on stats – the last one to win was Bogskar in 1940!
5. ROCKY CREEK 8 11st 5lb; Paul Nicholls; Noel Fehily
Has always looked a chaser going places and although he has a high weight there is enough class about him to give him some chance. However at 8 he is probably a year ahead of himself here and with only 7 chase runs under his belt he may be lacking. This wasn’t the plan for him earlier in the year and he seems to be here because he had a hiccup which meant he couldn’t run in the Gold Cup. While he has perfomed well twice this year there is still a suspicion he isn’t quite finishing off his races as well as others. A good jumper I can see him competing and loking dangerous for much of the race and then wilting in the home straight. Not without a chance of top 5/6.
6. QUITO DE LA ROQUE 10 11st 1lbs; Colm Murphy (IRE)
Hasnt shown much this year but has had good performances on Aintree’s regular Mildmay track in the past. A leap of faith required to fancy him here
7. COLBERT STATION 10 11st ; Ted Walsh (IRE)
One of the possible mounts for AP Mc Coy – was well fancied last year but never got involved before unseating his rider. 2lb higher mark here considering he hasn’t done much since is hardly appealing
8. WALKON 9 11st; Alan King; Wayne Hutchinson
Second to Triolo d’Alene in the Topham last year he isn’t attractively handicapped on a 5lb higher mark here. His one attempt at a National –the Scottish version ended in him being pulled up and I find little to recommend his chance here
9. BALTHAZAR KING 10 10st 13lb; Philip Hobbs; Richard Johnson
Terrific performer in Cross Country event s at Cheltenham. The fences may be similar there and he was fancied on back of that in last year’s race. The pace of this race is so different though and Balthazar was burnt out before the race began in earnest. Similar likely again – though if the ground is better than last year’s good to soft he could stick around a bit longer. A safe jumper who would be expected to complete at least
10. WAYWARD PRINCE 10 10st 13lbs; Hilary Parrott; Jack Doyle
A course winner twice on the Mildmay track, Wayward Price seems to save his best for his reappearance runs nowadays. Likely to find the pace of the race I problem I feel
11. MR MOONSHINE 10 10st 12lbs; Sue Smith; Ryan Mania
Same connections as last years winner, Auroras Encore here.Mr Moonshine comes here under a carrer highest mark. He ran well over the course to be third in December but has gone up 16lbs since. The handicapper would appear to have his measure.
12. TEAFORTHREE 10 10st 12lbs; Rebecca Curtis; Nick Schofield
Already discussed and selected as an Ante Post bet in my previous blog posting (10/1 now all gone at time of writing this) there are many positives here. His front running style may make him susceptible to a strong finisher but he could have ground most into submission by then. Running at Cheltenham Festival prior tho thsi can be a negative but I very much saw his run there as a warm up – whereas for many it is the main event and this is an afterthought. Bar a mishap I struggle to see him out of the top 4teafor3
13. ACROSS THE BAY 10 10st 11lb; Donald McCain; Henry Brooke
Has completed the course twice so must be fancied to do so again. But he likes to be up front and paid for that last year when weakening badly in the home straight to finish 14th. Would appear to need a shorter trip
14. DOUBLE SEVEN 8 10st 11lb, Martin Brassil (IRE)
The other possible mount for McCoy, his chance would appear to rest on the ground being no softer than good. If McCoy picks him the price will shorten but is handicapped high enough on what he has achieved and as an 8yo stats don’t favour his chances
15. BATTLE GROUP 9 10st 10lb; Johnny Farrelly; Brendan Powell
‘Enigmatic’ would be a polite way to describe this fella who hit a purple patch of form at this meeting 12 months ago winning twice. His record on last three runs sees two pulled ups and a refusal to highlight the risk involved in backing him. His mark is plenty high enough but if the fences are to his liking it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see him competing – the ability is there – but strongest likelihood remains he will down tools early!
16. BUCKERS BRIDGE 8 10st 10lbs; Henry de Bromhead(IRE)
No winning form over more than 2.5 miles counts him out for me immediately
17. LION NA BEARNAI 12 10st 10lbs; Tomas Gibney (IRE); Davy Russell
A previous Irish Grand National winner – that has been a good pointer for this race before but not when they come here aged 12. Would need some cut in the ground and if it did come up soft he would be expected to stay on. Others fancied more
18. PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 11 10st 10lbs,;Willie Mullins (IRE)
Has been Ante Post fav for this race in years past but never made it to this stage until now.I’m sure if Ruby walsh were riding some would have latched on to his chances but I’ve had the feeling before he may just not quite get this trip. Form this year also indicates a regression
19. MONBEG DUDE 9 10st 9lbs; Michael Scudamore; Paul Carberry
The Dude likes to be hald up and come late to win his races. Very tough to employ those tactics here but it can be done (Rhyme n Reason was famously last at Bechers first time in 1988 before triumphing). Paul Carberry was at his finest when using these tactics to perfection in the 2013 Welsh National. It should be noted however that his half length victim there – Teaforthree – is 13lbs better off. No course experience for the Dude but he has Zara Phillips 3 day eventing expertise in his team to prepare him for these kind of fences
20. BIG SHU 9 10st 8lbs; Peter Maher (IRE); Peter Buchanan
All of his form comes in cross country events and hunter chases. This marks him down as a good jumper but the pace of this race will be something new to him and expect him to be out of his comfort zone here
21. BURTON PORT 10 10st 8lbs; Jonjo O’Neill; Brian Harding
Hard to imagine that Burton Port is 10 – he seems to have been round a while and was competing at the top table of chasing for a couple of seasons.He would have been about top weight if he ran in this last year and has now slipped down the handicap after some poor efforts this year. His last run gave some hope that he may have found some ability again and if Jonjo O’Neill has managed to prime him back to form for the big occasion (wouldn’t be a shock!) then he is a dark horse in the race.
22. OUR FATHER 8 10st 8lbs; David Pipe
Always looked to have plenty of talent but it’s a while since we’ve seen it. Hard to fancy
23. MOUNTAINOUS 9 10st 7lbs;Richard Lee; Jamie Moore
This years Welsh National winner is a fine jumper who revels in soft ground. On anything quicker than soft he may find things happening a bit too quickly. Needs lots of rain to boost his chances
24. THE RAINBOW HUNTER 10 10st 7lbs; Kim Bailey; Aidan Coleman
Unseated rider here last year at a point that was too early to tell if he would have been involved. His caerer best win at Doncaster last time now sees him on highest ever mark of 144 and that should be his downfall – you need to come to this race having something in hand of the handicapper
25. VINTAGE STAR 8 10st 7lbs; Sue Smith; Brian Hughes
At 8, the stats are against him but this one has the look of a National horse to me – it may just be a year too early. His sire normally produces good ground performers so there is a chance that his soft ground form this year can be improved upon. Without his fall last time at Cheltenham, I would feel a bit stronger but we can be sure he has been schooled plenty on Malton’s Aintree style fences since. There are worse 40/1 shots for sure as he has had more chase experience than most 8yos in this contestvintage star
26. CHANCE DU ROY 10 10st 6lbs; Philip Hobbs; Tom O’Brien
Winner of the Becher Chase on this course before Christmas he has two ways of running at this track. In the Topham last year he was in trouble from the start. Satmina for this trip has to be an issue for me
27. HAWKES POINT 9 10st 6lbs; Paul Nicholls; Ryan Mahon
Close second in the Welsh National, he’s another who need the ground to be soft or else it may all be a bit too quick for him. Only 7 chase starts is a bit of a negative but he is 9 years old so should be strong enough for this test now. Place chances if the rain comes
28. KRUZHLININ 7 10st 6lbs; Donald McCain
Too young at 7? Has another entry on Saturday and think it’s likely that Donald MCcain would prefer him to run in that at this stage of his career
29. PINEAU DE RE 11 10st 6lbs; Dr Richard Newland; Leighton Aspell
There has been some interest in this one in Ante Post markets recently after a fine run over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival. Ran over the course in December but fell at an early stage – generally a sound jumper. Good jockey booking but races here off a career highest mark of 143 – can he really be improving at the age of 11?? Can see why he’s been backed but seems short enough now around 20/1. A suspicion that he might need more time between his races also?
30. GOLAN WAY 10 10st 5lbs; Tim Vaughan; Michael Byrne
Likes to dominate and will struggle to have things all his own way here. Readily discounted
31. TWIRLING MAGNET 8 10st 5lbs; Jonjo O’Neill
Beaten last time at Cheltenham when unseating rider. No form at this kind of mark that would prompt me to give him a chance
32. VESPER BELL 8 10st 5lbs; Willie Mullins(IRE)
One run over this course saw him get no farther than fence 1.Probably too young and not enough chase experience yet
33. THE PACKAGE 11 10st 4lb; David Pipe; Tom Scudamore
Another ‘dark’ one, The Package has always had ability but is a bit fragile having only been seen once in the last year. The ‘bounce factor’ from that Cheltenham run could be a concern . Ran in this race as a fancied 14/1 shot in 2010 (too young then?) but didn’t seem to enjoy the fences before unseating rider at the 19th
34. RAZ DE MAREE 9 10st 3lb; Dessie Hughes (IRE); Davy Condon
No encouragement in runs this year to think he is well weighted off a mark of 140
35. ROSE OF THE MOON 9 10st 3lbs; David O’Meara
Been following this one since he chased home Bobs Worth over hurdles at Cheltenham in 2011. Has looked a bit lacking in pace at a higher level since then. Didnt get competitive in the Becher Chase in December when on a mark of 135 and comes here 5 pounds worse off. Think he’ll struggle to keep up early
36. SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM 10 10st 3lbs; Nicky Henderson; David Bass
Well fancied for the race in 2012 but didn’t get home then after being prominent most of the way. 9 lbs lower mark here but he’s done nothing so far this season to show he retains the same ability
37. ALVARADO 9 10st 2lb; Fergal O’Brien; Paddy Brennan
The owners have been placed regularly in this race in recent years courtesy of Cappa Blue and State of Play. Alvarado doesn’t have quite the class of those two and seems to have two ways of running. 139 is a plenty high enough mark
38. LAST TIME D’ALBAIN 10 10st 2lb; Liam Cusack(IRE)
Placed in the Topham last year but with no winning form over more than 2.5 miles I think he should be sticking to that shorter race again
39. LOST GLORY 9 10st 2lb; Jonjo O’Neill
Pulled up after being tailed off in last two outings is not the preparation you would like to see for this! Only reason for support would be if you like the name
40. ONE IN A MILAN 9 10st 2lbs; Evan Williams
A career best when 4th in the Welsh National doesn’t put him in here as a total no hoper. Would need some heavy rain to replicate the deep ground conditions though
With only the top 40 guaranteed a place those below have to wait until Thursday’s final entry stage and hope that some above are taken out of the race to get in. For now comments on the next half dozen who stand best chance of getting in
41. GOONYELLA 7 10st 1lb; Jim Dreaper(IRE)
Being another 7 year old is a bit of a put off. Has plenty of chasing experience for his age though and on breeding it’s entirely possible that better ground may suit him here. Looks a thorough stayer
42. SWING BILL 13 10st 1lb; David Pipe
The second 13 yo in the race, Swing Bill has popped over these fences 6 times now, finishing 6th in the race last year. He’s a very unlikely winner but would be one to look at for markets to finish the race /finish in top 10 etc.
43. SOLL 9 10st; Jo Hughes; Mark Grant
My early fancy for the race – mentioned in January blog – I have backed him at 50/1 but fear his heavy ground runs since Christmas have scuppered his chances a bit here. 7th last year when it was a year too soon for me. If he does get in and manages to recapture his form I think he has a serious chance – but that’s a very big if!
44. MINELLA FOR VALUE 8 10st John Butler
Hard to make out a case here – mark is too high
45. NIGHT IN MILAN 8 10st Keith Reveley
An interesting runner right at the bottom if he manages to get in the race. Needs good ground and may well get that now. Downside is he may want to dominate from the front and there’ll be competition for that role. Nevertheless, a decent outsider despite 8 not being an ideal age
46. SAINT ARE 8 10st Tim Vaughan
9th in the race last year as a 7yo. Previously had won twice at this meeting on the Mildmay course. Form this year not encouraging though it has to be said he has never run well at Cheltenham where he pulled up last time.Looking unlikely he will get in but if he does I might have a small tickle if someone puts up a 3 figure price.

We have to assume the remaining 19 runners entered will be struggling to get into the race now

CONCLUSIONS

Ground will be a factor here for sure so thoughts may change as we get to race day. Soft ground looking unlikely right now but if the rain does fall there are a few resolute stayers whose chances will improve.
Employing my favourite stats I’m looking for something weighted no higher than 11st that is aged 9, 10 or 11. Previous course experience and proven stamina (either in this race or in similar well run races like the Scottish, Welsh or Irish nationals) are preferential

This gives my optimum shortlist of
TEAFORTHREE (Grand national + Welsh national form)
MONBEG DUDE (Welsh National form)
MOUNTAINOUS (Welsh national form)
HAWKES POINT (Welsh National form)

The last two named would appear to need the ground to be soft and as that doesn’t look likely right now I’ll be leaving them until more rain materializes.
Teaforthree is weighted to beat Monbeg Dude on their Welsh National run and his running style should be better suited to this race as he can maintain a handy position throughout
I have already put him up at 10/1 on a previous blog posting but 9/1 may still be available Welsh national dude

He doesn’t quite fit the stats with his age but if the ground does continue to look like being Good or Good to Soft I can see Vintage Star performing well at big odds so a small play at 40/1 ew wouldn’t go amiss – he ran well in the Welsh National despite the ground probably being against him

Already recommended

1pt ew SOLL 50/1
2.5 pts ew TEAFORTHREE 10/1 (taking ¼ odds 12345 NRNB)

Additional selection
0.75 pts ew VINTAGE STAR 40/1 (BetVictor ¼ odds 123456!)

Thanks for reading

Good luck with whatever you back and hoping they all come back safe and well

Comments as always are most welcome

Paul

(It’s always good to read some different views so here’s a couple of respected blog sites to give some alternative opinions http://grandnational2014.blogspot.co.uk/ http://softinplacesracing.wordpress.com/2014/03/30/grand-national-2014/ )

 
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Posted by on March 31, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Time for tea?

23 Mar

I’ll be doing a full Grand National preview in just over a week once the 5 day declarations are out but there’s a bit of value right now prompting an early post.
A few stats for the race were on last year’s preview https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/528/ but an excellent rundown of the race facts can be found on here http://www.grandnationalstats.co.uk/
My main focus will always remain on finding something on 11stone or less and so despite the obvious class of Tidal Bay and Long Run on 11st 10lb and 11st 9lb, it will take an effort not seen since the days of Red Rum to win off that weight.
In my January update post I did advise Soll for the race. After a very promising return before Christmas however his subsequent campaign has been perplexing. Two gruelling heavy ground marathons with him finishing legless on both occasions are not the preparation you would want for this event. On his last start he looked jaded already from them, and while he’s still in the race right now I am far from hopeful of his chances at the moment.
The standout though is current favourite, Teaforthree. A terrific run in this race last year saw him finish 3rd (and the only horse to carry over 11 stone to finish in the first 12 speaks volumes). This year his campaign has been much more geared to this race including what was always intended to be a warm up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
He gets in on 10st 12lb this year – an ideal weight for the stats and has that course experience behind him. Effective on all ground except firm (which just won’t happen anyway for safety reasons) I find it very difficult to pick any holes in his chances
With some firms now offering Non Runner No Bet it means that if he doesn’t run for some reason we won’t lose our cash – and with an extra place being offered with some (and which has to be taken), I find it hard not to see him in the thick of it again (always need a little slice of luck in running to get round here of course)
I can’t imagine for one minute that he will be a double figure price on raceday so would take the 10/1 around now – the race has cut up a little since the last declaration stage and 6/1 or even 5/1 on the day would not be a surprise to see

teaforthree

Recommendation:
2.5pts ew Teaforthree 10/1 (NRNB ¼ odds 12345 with 365, Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook)

Already advised 1pt ew Soll 50/1

Thanks for reading

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 23, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Cheltenham Results 2014

14 Mar

The final day started badly when long time Gold Cup hope, First Lieutenant was pulled out of the race. The rest of the day didnt get much better with some shock wins that I couldnt come close to picking. Ironically, Gigginstown Stud (who own First Lieutenant) has a field day with their other runners having 4 winners. Another reason not to fly Ryanair in the future!

It’s back to the day job for me now and the blog will be quiet until Aintree in the first week of April (before then any messages will be on Twitter)

Looking ahead to next year I see no reason why O Faolains Boy can’t be competitive in the Gold Cup. Ballyalton is a less obvious name that I’ll be following with novice chases in mind. More of That could prove to be one of the greats – he beat Annie Power on merit and stamina didnt come into her loss

It’s been a successful week for the blog – ending with a 39.87 pt profit to a level stake.

Hoping that some winners have come your way and thanks for reading throughout the week

Paul

Image

 

Festival Results 2014

Selections

Tuesday

1.30

 0.5 pts ew The Liquidator 20/1 (1/4 1234) – LOST

0.5 pts ew Three Kingdoms 40/1 (1/4 1234) – LOST

2.40

1pt ew Time For Rupert 16/1 – LOST

0.5 pts ew Solix 50/1 – LOST

0.5 pts ew Muldoons Picnic 33/1 – LOST

1pt ew double

 My Tent or Yours 4/1 3.20 Chelt – 2nd

Dodging Bullets 5/1 2.05 Chelt – LOST

4.00

1pt ew Doyly Carte (w/o Quevega) 20/1 – LOST

5.15

1pt ew Close House 16/1- LOST

Daily Profit/Loss   -12 pts (12 pts staked – no returns)

 

Wednesday

2.05

1pt ew Le Bec 16/1 – fell

1pt ew O’Faolains Boy 25/1 – won (returns 33.25 pts)

2.40

1pt ew Bayan 12/1 3rd (returns 4 pts)

3.20

3pts win Sire De Grugy 3/1 won (returns 12 pts) – went as high as 4/1!

4.40

1pt ew Goodwood Mirage 10/1 – brought down

0.5 pts ew Orgilgo Bay 20/1 – 3rd (returns 3pts)

0.25 pts ew Hawk High 40/1 – won (returns 13pts)

5.15

1pt ew Neck or Nothing 25/1 lost

1pt ew Our Kaempfer 33/1 – lost

Daily Profit/Loss    +48.75 pts  (  16.5 pts staked – 65.25 pts returned)

Running Profit/Loss +36.75 pts

 

Thursday

1.30

 3pts ew Oscar Whisky 10/1 fell

2.05

1pt ew Grand Vision 16/1 lost

0.5pts ew Cross Kennon 33/1 lost

2.40

1.5pts ew Al Ferof 5/1 lost

4.00

1pt ew Champion Court 14/1 lost

1pt ew Third Intention 16/1 5th (returns 5pts)

0.5 pts ew Tartak 33/1 lost

4.40

1pt ew Roberto Goldback 20/1 3rd (returns 6pts)

1pt ew Spring Heeled 18/1 won (returns 24.5 pts)

 

Daily Profit/Loss +13.5 pts  (22 pts staked  ,  35.5 pts returned)

Running Profit/Loss +50.25 pts

 

Friday

1.30

1pt ew Broughton 13/2 – LOST

2.05

1pt ew Cheltenian 10/1 – LOST

0.5 pts ew Runswick Royal 50/1 – LOST

2.40

0.5 pts ew Masters Hill 22/1 (w/o 2 favs) – LOST

3.20

2pts ew First Lieutenant 12/1 (Ante Post) – NR – LOST

1pt ew First Lieutenant 16/1 NRNB – NR – VOID

4.40

0.5 pts ew Thomas Crapper 25/1 2nd (returns 3.62 pts)

0.5 pts ew Une Artiste 25/1 – LOST

5.15

1pt ew His Excellency 22/1 – LOST

 

Daily Profit/Loss -10.38 pts  (16 pts staked  -, 5.62 pts returned)

Running Profit/Loss +39.87 pts ( 66.5 pts staked ; 106.37 pts returned  +59.9%)

 
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Posted by on March 14, 2014 in Uncategorized

 
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