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Time for tea?

23 Mar

I’ll be doing a full Grand National preview in just over a week once the 5 day declarations are out but there’s a bit of value right now prompting an early post.
A few stats for the race were on last year’s preview https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/528/ but an excellent rundown of the race facts can be found on here http://www.grandnationalstats.co.uk/
My main focus will always remain on finding something on 11stone or less and so despite the obvious class of Tidal Bay and Long Run on 11st 10lb and 11st 9lb, it will take an effort not seen since the days of Red Rum to win off that weight.
In my January update post I did advise Soll for the race. After a very promising return before Christmas however his subsequent campaign has been perplexing. Two gruelling heavy ground marathons with him finishing legless on both occasions are not the preparation you would want for this event. On his last start he looked jaded already from them, and while he’s still in the race right now I am far from hopeful of his chances at the moment.
The standout though is current favourite, Teaforthree. A terrific run in this race last year saw him finish 3rd (and the only horse to carry over 11 stone to finish in the first 12 speaks volumes). This year his campaign has been much more geared to this race including what was always intended to be a warm up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
He gets in on 10st 12lb this year – an ideal weight for the stats and has that course experience behind him. Effective on all ground except firm (which just won’t happen anyway for safety reasons) I find it very difficult to pick any holes in his chances
With some firms now offering Non Runner No Bet it means that if he doesn’t run for some reason we won’t lose our cash – and with an extra place being offered with some (and which has to be taken), I find it hard not to see him in the thick of it again (always need a little slice of luck in running to get round here of course)
I can’t imagine for one minute that he will be a double figure price on raceday so would take the 10/1 around now – the race has cut up a little since the last declaration stage and 6/1 or even 5/1 on the day would not be a surprise to see

teaforthree

Recommendation:
2.5pts ew Teaforthree 10/1
(NRNB ¼ odds 12345 with 365, Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook)

Already advised 1pt ew Soll 50/1

Thanks for reading

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 23, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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