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Aintree Grand National meeting 2025

An extra post on the blog here to cover the three races run over the National fences at Aintree next week.

I’ve done a detailed post on the Grand National itself in the past where it was often a race where the winner could be found by analysing previous stats.

The changes in the race made over the big fences last year, however, have created a much easier test in my opinion. Factors like weight and age and even jumping ability are now less important. I’m largely considering historical statistics to be a bit meaningless now with this in mind.

The most recent runnings of the race have seen far more runners on contention in the later stages than there used to be. This was ramped up even more last year. Any number of runners were in contention in the Grand National and the Topham Trophy at the home turn last year. I’m expecting to see the same again now with ground conditions likely to be even better than they were last year.

It’s also worth noting that the easing of the fences – and in particularly the stretch of the course leading up to and including Bechers Brook – has now meant there is far more advantage than there used to be in keeping to the inside of the track. This was once the ‘brave man’s route’. Now it should be everyone’s favoured route as they try to save ground in order to get a good line coming into the Canal Turn. At this fence, going too wide could then lose you the race in one fell swoop.

This ‘golden highway’ does potentially create another issue if a prominent racer falls as it could cause lots of traffic issues behind. I’d be quite keen with this in mind to support prominent racers who can stay out of trouble slightly more.

The going on the track is currently swaying between good to soft and good. Updates can be found throughout the week here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-grand-national/racing/grand-national-the-going/. The weather forecast doesn’t show any rain coming and suggests the course will dry out. We’ve had Grand Nationals on firm ground in the past – but those days are long gone now as stewards will be keen to keep the ground no faster than Good. Expect watering to take place throughout the week – hopefully not too much to make the ground tacky or dead though!. As long as we get no unexpected downpours then a Good ground meeting looks likely at this stage

With these points in mind onto some thoughts for next week’s three races over the ‘not so big now’ fences.

*****

Thursday – 4.05 Foxhunters Chase

Final declarations for this will appear on Tuesday morning at around 1030

There is one obvious contender here for me. Lifetime Ambition has already run twice around this course when he was a high class handicapper. The fences gave him no terrors then – an ‘unseated rider’ in the 2023 Grand National was because a loose horse ran in front of him. Prior to that he had been jumping well in 2^nd place. Previously he had been 4^th over this trip when the weight he was giving away to his rivals told in later stages (Percussion ½ length ahead will be 18 pounds worse off here).

Lifetime Ambition entered the hunter chase ranks last season but wasn’t qualified to run in this race then. Even back then, connections were mooting this 2025 version as his aim, and he’s finally made it here.

The presence of Rob James on board is a bonus in race that has amateur riders of various abilities. Rob is very capable and won the Cheltenham Festival version of this race recently.

Whilst the selection was beaten by Willitgoahead earlier this season over a longer trip, I have no doubt that his season will have been geared to this race and he’ll be a much improved model now.

The ground conditions look likely to suit and he ticks all the boxes here for me as he should be racing prominently from the off

My Drogo is the one horse in the field who may have displayed higher class form in the past. This comes with fragility though that curtailed his chasing career after looking such a good early prospect.

He has yet to tackle these fences but if he does, I’d be most concerned about him as a danger

Selection: Lifetime Ambition – best price 6/1 at time of writing with 365, Ladbrokes and Corals

Friday – 4.05 Topham Handicap Chase

The ‘mini’ Grand National over a shorter trip is always a good appetiser for what is coming the day after.

I would have looked at statistics to help again here in past but after last year’s race I’m inclined to ignore them.

Lounge Lizard was my fancy for that race then but a late injury took him out of the race the day before. My blog last year details why I liked him so much after a previous performance where he seemed to really light up at the course.

I have to support him again after his warm up race saw him returning to the form I was hoping to see. Connections had blamed the ground being too soft before then so I’m not expecting that issue here. He races prominently and stays further than this trip so am hoping he’ll be bang in contention in the final stages. I’m hoping to see Jonathan Burke or Sam Twiston-Davies get the leg-up when final declarations are released on Wednesday morning. They both know him well

At Cheltenham over the New Year I was also taken by Marble Sands’s performance in front of him. He was second then but on much softer ground than he would like. He went into the notebook as one to watch in a decent handicap when the ground was better.

That day has come here as the ground and trip look ideal. I’m hoping that Kielan Woods is on board for this test. He hasn’t raced over these fences before and would race less prominently so I would be hoping for a trouble free passage.

It’s a competitive race and danger are aplenty but these two will do for me at the prices available

Selections; Lounge Lizard (25/1 best current price available with 365 and Skybet) and Marble Sands (20/1 Skybet only)

Saturday 4.00 Grand National

The ‘big one’. It looked such a different race last year but my takeout was that the 1^st 4 home were all previous Grade 1 chase winners. That suggested that class came to the fore. Weight could be carried more effectively over these new style fences. In the past I would have favoured anything carrying 11 stone or less but this has become ever more inconsequential in recent years. Being aged 9 or 10 and having plenty of experience were also factors that used to matter – much less so now since 7yo Noble Yeats won.

I’m therefore inclined to look for the Grade 1 chase winners again and there are 9 currently declared.

They are:

I Am Maximus – last year’s winner but has a big weight this year after that and has been out of form so far this year.

Royale Pagaille – needs it very soft and won’t get that.

Grangeclare West – high enough weighted here for me on what he has achieved so far

Hewick. Was due to be top weight last year but taken out. The ground is looking likely to be right up his street. This former King George winner avoided Cheltenham and had a lovely preparation win. I wouldn’t have fancied him carrying 11st 7lb in the old style race and the fences would have been a test for this small horse then – he can get away with these things now though in this new style race

Minella Indo – Former Gold Cup winner and placed last year. He is 12 now though and age is going in the wrong direction

Capodanno – Has done this race twice and didn’t get home both times. May yet race in the Topham on Friday instead (MONDAY MORNING UPDATE – CAPODANNO NOT IN THE 5 DAY DECLARATIONS AND WON’T NOW RUN HERE)

Conflated. Very much on the downgrade with his form this year and may struggle to stay even without that

Bravemansgame. Previous King George winner and Gold Cup second. Not the force he was this season but his mark has dropped to allow for that. Similar profile in that regard to last year’s placed horses

Chantry House. ‘Enigmatic’ comes to mind here and can see him not liking this test. His form is very in and out now – and mostly ‘out’

There are 3 other Grade 1 winner in the field but those wins came over hurdles. Appreciate It and Stay Away Fay wouldn’t be ones I’d be looking at but a case can be made for Vanillier who was second in this race two years ago. He didn’t look so happy in the race last year but he has looked a bit reformed recently. He may well have beaten Stumptown in Cheltenham’s Cross Country Chase but for his rider taking the wrong course. He still managed to be 3^rd despite that huge blip. The decent ground should be to his liking.

Iroko and Intense Raffles would be too young at 7 years old on old statistics but we can forget that here now. They have to be considered strong contenders and look to have had their preparations this season fine-tuned for this race. However both would seem to prefer soft ground and that is looking unlikely now. If the rains did somehow comes they would be more dangerous for me.

The other I have to consider at a big price is Threeunderthrufive. He doesn’t have the Grade 1 form I was looking for but his form this season is the best of his career. He is officially 5 pounds well in here after his last run – he should be racing of 158 but has 153. That alone has to give him some chance and being previously placed in the Scottish Grand National should mean he will have no problem staying this trip.

Final declarations will be released on Thursday morning but my shortlist at this stage in order of preference is

Hewick (best price 10/1 currently)

Vanillier (14/1 best in a coupld of places)

Threunderthrufive (66/1 ew with 5 places in several places)

Bravemansgame (50/1 ew with 5 places available)

I’d normally be expecting some firms to go to 6 places on the day (only Skybet currently). However many firm that I expected to do that at Cheltenham didn’t – so it’s not a given. Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Hills, Unibet and Betfred all amongst the firms who are already Non Runner No Bet though. If you back now and it doesn’t run then stakes will be returned – take car if using others that they have the same rule.

I’ll no doubt be active on Blue Sky app with any extra bits of interest I spot during the meeting next week for other races on the traditional Mildmay course (@senormoodoir.bsky.social)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back next week

Paul

3 Comments

Posted by senormoodoir on March 30, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: Aintree, grandnational, Horse Racing, horses, sports

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 4

13 Mar

Ground appears to be proper Good to Soft so far on Day 3 – there should be no excuses from anyone. I’m assuming we’ll have similar tomorrow in this analysis below

Onto the final day’s action:

Friday’s card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-14

Odds comparisons here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-14-cheltenham

1.20 JCB Triumph Hurdle

This feels like a Triumph Hurdle of yesteryear with 18 runners and some firms offering 4 places!

Before Tuesday’s 4yo handicap hurdle was added to this meeting in it often had big fields – and produced shock results. Class has generally come to the fore since.

Willie Mullins fields a staggering 11 runners – 3 of which have yet to face a hurdle in public.

I would hope having so many big outsiders doesn’t cause traffic problems but I think there will be a strong pace here which should soon sort out the wheat from the chaff.

I don’t think the form of the Irish runners here is quite as strong as the home side and this largely revolves around the two at the front of the market.

East India Dock (the younger brother of Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle second Burdett Road) was a decent staying type on the flat but has blossomed since going hurdling. I don’t think you will see a quicker and more efficient jumper in this field and he can gain lengths on his rivals in a quickly run race. He’s made the running himself thus far but the addition of stablemate Opec, who looks sure to take them along at a good clip, looks a very good move.

This will test the jumping of main rival Lulamba, who looks more of a chasing type going forward – albeit a very useful one.

East India Dock’s course form and his quick hurdling sways it for me and I think Lulamba will need to be out of the very top drawer to beat him whilst the ground is on the better side here.

It would be great to see the Gredley family finally rewarded with a Cheltenham winner here after all the effort they have been putting into National Hunt racing in the past couple of years. Previously, the family were very flat racing orientated (more seasoned followers will remember User Friendly winning the Oaks and the Arc de Triomphe)

I have had a little ante post interest on Mondo Man earlier this year before he ran his first hurdling race. He was a top class horse on the flat but is held by Lulamba on Ascot running.

He has spoilt his chances in both races by pulling too hard – he was quirky on the flat as well.

His price of around 33/1 does reflect his chance on hurdling form so far. However, the likely strong pace here, and the addition of Brian Hughes in the saddle, gives him his best chance to actually settle in a race.

If he does behave himself and Brian can switch him off, he has the class to be a factor. We’ll know soon into the race whether he has a chance or not.

Selection; Heart may be ruling head slightly here but I’m on the side of East India Dock. A general price of around 2/1 is about right whilst not offering excessive value. A more speculative punt would be Mondo Man if he can finally settle in a race

Recommendation

I can’t see East India Dock out of the first 4 here. He isn’t an each way price at 2/1 but as there is another in the 4.40 who I also can’t see out of the first 4 then an Each way double is recommended – see the 440 write up.

Also 0.5 pt win Mondo Man 33/1 or better

(don’t see the value in each way here – if he doesn’t settle I can’t see him being placed but if he does he has the talent to go close)

*****

2.00 County Handicap Hurdle

A handicap with at least 4 contenders who look to have been laid out for it.

Absurde did the ‘absurd’ by winning comfortably this from last place from a relative slow pace last year. He has plenty of class from the flat and is thoroughly capable of winning again but interesting that Paul Townend opts for Kargese instead from Team Mullins.

Kargese was 2^nd in the Triumph Hurdle and is well handicapped off a mark of 141 on that form. She found disappointing little on her seasonal debut though and wouldn’t be winning this on that bare form. However, there may be a lot of improvement to come

I do think it’s a tough ask for 5 year olds like her to win this race and so that also applies to Lark In The Mornin. This one also looks to have been laid out for this race in the same way he was when easily winning on Tuesday’s card last year.

Then we have Valgrand, who represent the Dan Skelton team, who have been so good at providing the winners of this race with well-orchestrated plots in the past. He impressed with fast accurate jumping from the front earlier this season. Then he was held back in two later runs and that jumping prowess couldn’t be seen. The handicapper duly dropped him from 140 to 134 – something we have seen before in the Skelton plotting plan.

Hansard is also worth a mention off his mark of 142 given how well he ran against Champion Hurdle 1-2 Golden Ace and Burdett Road in his last run. Decent ground will suit him but I think a flatter track would be more of his metier

I can make a good case for too many in this race and no great value on any of them so it’s a No Bet race for me

*****

2.40 Mares Chase

Limerick Lace beat Dinoblue in this last year by getting first run and outstaying her on soft ground. The winner hasn’t been in the same form this year and I would expect Dinoblue to turn that form around on this occasion.

Allegorie de Vassy was behind them both last year and narrowly beaten by Dinoblue last time out. That would put her into the mix but she has run a bit below expectations now in 3 visits to this course and I don’t think it really suits here.

It’s also interesting that Keith Donoghue has chosen Brides Hill over Limerick Lace this year. Brides Hill had to be withdrawn from this race last year because of the soft ground. If she were to get her ideal Good ground she could be a proper threat to the favourite. You’d want to be checking the ground on race day here though…her chance lessens considerably if there is some soft in the ground.

*****

3.20 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (or ‘the Spud race’ as I affectionately call it)

This can be a really tough race for young novices over its longer trip. As such it is probably missing the highest grade novices who went for the shorter Turners Novices Hurdle on Wednesday. Take a look through the roll of honour in the past. You will see some later Gold Cup winners like Minella Indo and Bobs Worth. You’ll see just as many big priced winners who didn’t subsequently progress much further at all though.

If the pace is strong it can be a war of attrition that will favour the real sloggers in the race who haven’t been able to thrive in such conditions until now.

Team Mullins field six and stable jockey has plumped for Jasmin De Vaux, last years Festival Bumper winner. His hurdling career thus far has been highlighted by some quite dire jumping. He may well be the best of these on the gallops but he’ll need to really brush up his hurdling here or will be losing ground too regularly.

He’s also held by Wingmen on his last run. Gordon Elliott’s charge is unproven over this trip but most of them are to be fair here. I think his second at Leopardstown last time though is probably the best piece of form coming in.

Lucinda Russell has won this race before with the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze. She has compared Derryhassen Paddy quite favourably to that one and there was much to like about his recent Windsor win. The Russell team have already struck at this meeting with Myretown and are in good form. Their runner here is big long striding horse and I am a little worried that this course may not suit him – I thought Aintree might have been a better choice. Take note also that he was withdrawn from his prep race at Haydock as the ground was deemed not soft enough. He wouldn’t be a certain runner for me if there is no overnight easing in the ground.

Wendigo will be popular on the back of his second to The New Lion over Christmas – form that was well boosted on Wednesday. His second to Battle Born Lad earlier this season has also been well advertised since.

The Big Westerner is unbeaten and the likely favourite but is short enough for me considering her relative inexperience compared to others here

Team Mullins has won this race before with horses that weren’t the perceived first strings and I like two of his that I think will be ideally suited to the singular test of this race.

Sounds Victorius and Fishery Lane were 4^th and 5^th in last years Festival Bumper at big odds. Both came up the hill strongly and both look like they need a through test in my eyes. I don’t think either will have had their ideal conditions yet this season. Sounds Victorius was behind Wingman and Jasmin De Vaux at Leopardstown when he couldn’t match a change of pace from others near the home turn. He then stayed on into 5^th up the hill.

Both will appreciate a well-run race here which I hope we will get with proven front runner Jax Junior in the field

Recommendations

0.5 pts ew Sounds Victorius 20/1 or better

0.5 pts ew Fishery Lane 20/1 or better

Take the 5 places with Skybet or Paddy Power if you can – otherwise 4 places is widely available elsewhere

*****

4.00 Gold Cup

The centrepiece event of the meeting sees Galopin Des Champs going for his third win. On paper it looks his easiest task so far but the price of around 4/7 reflects that.
If the ground was properly good then Banbridge can be a threat but he is totally unproven over this far around this course…it’s a world away from Kempton’s 3 miles where he won the King George.

If there is more rain and emphasis is more on stamina then Inothewayurthinkin would be of each way interest. He won a handicap here last year easily despite bad jumping. His last run behind Galopin showed better jumping and nothing was staying on stronger at the finish.

If he doesn’t get outpaced it crucial stages. He will come up the hill very strongly and is the only one I can see threatening the favourite…but it does need a strongly run race with some ‘soft’ in the ground for me to see this scenario happening

Selection; Galopin Des Champs is hard to oppose but he is too short a price to recommend. If ground is good to soft or worse, Inothewayurthinkin would be a likely each way play

****

4.40 Hunters Chase

As in previous years, I just don’t follow the point to point scene enough to usuallyhave any great opinion on this race. It’s another amateur riders race where having one of the better jockeys on board would be great advantage.

However, Angels Dawn who is a previous Festival winner with the same rider on board and I would imagine has been laid out for this race. He ticks too many boxes for me to ignore

Four places are offered and as long as he gets round I can’t see him not being placed

Recommendation

Each way double time here with firms who offer 4 places on this race and the 120

2pt ew Double –

East India Dock 2/1 or better 1.20; Angels Dawn 7/2 or better here

****

5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle

Gordon Elliott learn his trace under the tutelage of Martin Pipe and always has something aimed at it. Wodhooh will be popular on the back of her being unbeaten over hurdles and a course win in December that’s worked out very well. She was rewarded with an 11 pound hike to her mark for that and she was best placed to strike from the front in quite a slow race

She would be favourite here if not for the presence of French import Kopeck De Mee who has been massively touted in the run up to the Festival. His mark of 136 is very much a shot in the dark from the handicapper as his form is so hard to gauge. He has been backed though as if he is much better than what he has been given.

We’ve seen this in handicaps from the Mullins team before. They sometimes hose in but other times it hasn’t come off. To take a price of no more than 5/2 in such a competitive race you’d really want to be knowing exactly what the stable know here

The short prices on these two runners mean we should have inflated prices on the rest and with 6 places on offer from several firms, I’ll look more for some each way value.

There are three that take my eye.

Park of Kings has been progressive this season and may well have won last time out at Leopardstown if not being given too much to do. He has been kept off the course since then – probably with this race in mind and avoiding winter deep ground – and should appreciate the strong pace and uphill finish.

No Questions Asked was a very useful bumper horse this season who has improved from race to race over hurdles this year. The form of his Huntingdon second to Califet En Vol was a big leap forward and I think he has the class of a horse with more to offer off his mark of 138

Punctuation has been around a long time and was originally owned by the Queen and once fancied for the Derby! He can be quirky but he does have an engine that can be seen to some effect when the cards fall for him. He has good course form and likes a strongly run race. The Henderson record in handicap hurdles is at the forefront oy mind here and I think there is decent value in him at big odds

Recommendations

0.5 pts each way on each of these with firms offering 6 places with 1/5^th odds

Park Of Kings 16/1 currently best price available

No Questions Asked 25/1 best available

Punctuation 50/1 quite widely available right now

That’s a wrap for this weeks action!

Thanks for reading once again. I hope my thoughts have been helpful to some during the week but whatever you have backed, I hope it’s been a profitable festival

Paul

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 13, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: Cheltenham, Horse Racing, horses, sports

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 3

12 Mar

We are reaching the halfway point of the Festival now

The wintry weather forecast came to fruition on Wednesday morning with some snow and sleet early on. This was mixed with sunshine to then help dry it out.

Forecast for remainder of week seems to be dry but with a chance of overnight frosts. It seems unlikely the ground will get softer this week and it may get closer to Good ground. It’s possible that some watering may be done if it does dry out too much

Onto Day 3 action:

Thursday’s card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-13

1.20 Mares Novices Hurdle.

This was a cracking high quality race this year with last year’s winner Golden Ace now a Champion Hurdle winner.

This year the quality seems to have dipped plenty – but that gives us a much bigger field instead.

I doubt anything will be going on to be Champion Hurdle quality in the future.

It’s a race that has produced shocks before when there have been big fields so I’m not going into it with maximum confidence but there are two very useful types from the flat that would be at the top of my shortlist.

If there is a strong pace, it should suit the claims of Sixandahalf. She is a progressive mare from the Gavin Cromwell yard (whose runners have been performing largely well at the meet so far). Stamina would seem to be her forte given her third place in the Irish Cesarewitch.

I just wonder over this two mile trip and the prospect of drying ground that Galileo Dame may have a bit too much zip for her. Joseph O’Brien has already had one 4 year old winner on Tuesday and this one has better form than that during her flat career. She is going the right way over hurdles too and gets a very handy ten pound allowance from the rest of the field.

Aurora Vega is a daughter of Cheltenham legend Quevega, but although she has the highest official mark here of 141, I really can’t see what she has done to merit that.

Diva Luna, was very good in bumpers this year. She disappointed at Sandown in the New Year but the trainer reports she is back to her best now. If so she could be a big player but I wonder if a longer trip would suit.

Jubilee Alpha has strong form this year bit I can’t help but think she needs softer ground

Selection; Galileo Dame is most appealing here to me but the 6/1 that was available last night has all gone now after her trainer got an early winner. 9/2 is the best price right now so I fear the value may have disappeared

****

2.00 Jack Richards Novices Limited Hcap Chase

Another Joseph O’Brien plot is envisaged by the layers here with Nurburgring at the top of the market. On his hurdling form he would have a great chance but I have yet to see anything in his chase performances to suggest he is as good over the larger obstacles. I’d want a double figure price on him to get interested in any way.

The key race for me now came here in December:

Jango Baie has hardly done this form any harm by winning the Arkle but he was getting 8 pounds from Springwell Bay here, suggesting they are similar types. Caldwell Potter had a huge reputation before this and disappointed many but he is 5 pounds better off with Springwell Bay now.

On soft ground, I would be favouring Caldwell Potter but with that looking unlikely I think Springwell Bay will have the class to defy top weight here. He had several options to choose from and ended up here. He won again on this course since and was really impressive in doing so. I think he is better than a handicapper (as long as the ground isn’t too testing) over this trip

Recommendation

1pt ew Springwell Bay taking 15/2 or better

*****

2.40 Pertemps Final Hcap Hurdle

Runners have to go through qualifying races to get here by finishing in the first 4. Much of that qualifying will have to been done on softer ground than this and this may cause some form turnarounds. It also means it’s harder to protect a mark as some exposure has to be seen beforehand.

I’ve already highlighted in previous post that Nicky Henderson has a mean profit/loss record in these sort of races.

He fields three here – Jeriko du Reponet, Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob

Jeriko Du Reponet has an obvious chance – he was fancied to be one of the top novices last year and before the wheels fell off in the Supreme Novices you would have imagined he was going to end up well above a 140 rated horse. A setback kept him off until February when he finished 2^nd. He was in a decent position but was knocked back by a mistake and being blocked by a rival up front which put him on the back foot. From then on I got the impression that qualifying rather than winning was at the forefront of Nico de Boinville’s mind. He duly did that and confirmed in my mind that he is better than his current mark of 135.

The downside is his price of around 5/1. That’s very short for such a competitive race.

Doddiethegreat appeared not to get up the hill here in a shorter race last year. Admittedly, the stable were in dire form then and he may have an excuse but I’m still not convinced of him on this track.

Shanagh Bob, on the other hand, has won here before and looks more of a stayer. He’s the one that I like most of the trio from an each way perspective with 6 places being offered. He is 4 pounds better off with Super Survivor who beat him at Huntingdon but this track and ground are likely to suit him better.

Back in 4^th in the same race, Zain Nights, is also one to be strongly considered. He will most definitely prefer the better ground here and has good previous course form

Whilst, I can’t ignore the chance of Jeriko Du Reponet I can make him a recommendation at such a low price. I can see him making a mockery of his mark but I much prefer to back bigger prices each way that provide better value

Recommendations therefore are

0.5 pts ew Shanagh Bob (22/1 best price available as I write with 6 places)

0.5 pts ew Zain Nights (28/1 available in a couple of places)

*****

3.20 Ryanair Chase

I’ve already covered this to some degree in my ‘early ante post selections’ blog and see no reason to move away from last year’s winner, Protektorat.

If Il Est Francais had proven form here I would be in fear of him – but he’s only used to racing on flat tracks and has been kept away from here thus far in his career. If he takes to the fences he will be the hare to catch and he’ll make this a test for all. I’d be a bit worried to watch his bold technique on the downhill fences here especially though.

Fact to File has been rerouted here from the Gold Cup and whilst he must have a chance he is too short a price for me.

Djelo beat Protektorat at right handed Huntingdon but my selection patently is better going left handed and reversed the form in no uncertain fashion next time back on left hand track (like here)

Jungle Boogie is a talented horse who deserves a mention but the fact he is so lightly raced for an 11 year old shows how fragile he is.

If you followed my ante post recommendation you are already having money running up from Tuesday on Protektorat after Haiti Couleurs win so would be unnecessary to give him as a recommendation again here. He remains the selection though at around 6/1. A bit of dig in the ground would be ideal but he has form on Good also.

*****

4.00 Stayers Hurdle

I put up Teahupoo to win this at a short enough price last year. He’s had the same light preparation he needs this year but I just don’t get the same positive vibes from the stable as there was 12 months ago.

Langer Dan seems to spring to life at this meeting every year and we can usually forget all the weak looking form he has had in his previous runs. It would be no shock to see him winning.

Home By The Lee, despite being 10, looks an improved horse this year but he has been here before and generally given the impression this course isn’t quite where he thrives. He is still respected.

Lucky Place is the up and comer but is unproven at 3 miles. If he improves again for the trip he enters the equation (close form twice in his career with Champion Hurdle winning Golden Ace). It’s too much of a guess for me though that the trip will suit.

If it did come up very soft, Nemean Lion would be a lively outsider. That’s unlikely to happen though and if ground dries out I think he will be a non-runner.

Selection: This isn’t a betting race for me but if I had to pick one it would be Langer Dan from a somewhat cynical view on his regular massive improvement at this meeting

****

4.40 Plate Hcap Chase

Another very competitive handicap where I’m sure offering 6 places for each way would have been the norm a year ago – but sadly only 5 places here. I’d rather have the old traditional ¼ odds 1234 I think than these supposedly ‘enhanced’ terms

At the top of the handicap, Conflated and Ginnys Destiny have back form that would make them still well in – but neither have been in the same form this year.

Venetia Williams used to be a trainer to really watch in this race and so both Gemirande and Demnat are worthy of respect, but I feel both may come up short

Three for my shortlist here:

Masaccio is 6 pounds better off for nearly 4 lengths with current favourite Jagwar from their last encounter– but I think he has good chances to reverse the form and is much the better value of the pair. Masaccio had to carry a 12 stone burden on softer ground that day and these conditions will suit better. The addition of first time cheekpieces is also noteworthy.

Fugitif has loads of past course form and still remains on a competitive mark of 149. His last run was over a trip that is to far for him and is easily discounted. He has won races of a similar level off higher marks here and is 8 pounds better off with Gemirande from their running here in December. He is also well in on previous course form with Il Ridoto. Ideally, he’d like a bit of cut in the ground but even on good ground he has shown he can be competitive.

Finally, Personal Ambition, also carries first time cheekpieces and was very unlucky not to win at Ascot earlier in the season but for a last fence mistake that nearly took Ben Jones out of the saddle. Soft ground last time was against him and his record on better ground suggests his mark of 137 is very workable.

Whilst he has no previous course form, a Kelso win over Jango Baie (what has that done since!) shows a track with an uphill finish will hold no fears.

I put up Shakeumupharry for the same stable when he won this race last year with Ben Jones on board. That one hasn’t been in the same form this year though and it’s noteworthy that stable jockey Ben is on Personal Ambition this time round.

I’ll be covering myself with all three here

Recommendations

1pt ew Masaccio 10/1 best price currently available

0.5 pts ew Fugitif 16/1

0.5ts ew Personal Ambition 20/1

****

5.20 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

The first race this year that is for amateur riders only. There is always a wide gulf between the quality of riders in this and more inexperienced ones can often go too fast too early and pay fo rit late on

A JP McManus horse was heavily backed in this last year and dotted up after being thrown in with a weight that was ultimately far too lenient (he‘s now favourite for the Grand National and has a live each way chance in the Gold Cup)

We have another who looks to be plotted up from the same owner now In Johnnywho. Four runs over chases were required for him to qualify and get a mark. He did this whilst looking that he was being held back on more than one occasion.

The handicapper wasn’t totally fooled but still dropped him down from 144 to 140. The likelihood remains that he is better and he has the services of probably the best amateur jockey in the race.

I have to give a mention to locally trained Manofthepeople at a very big price who may get the decent ground he needs. On his winning form here in April I would give him a chance. However, he ran so badly at his last course visit that I can’t really forget that enough to recommend him. He’d perhaps be a very speculative small ew punt

Selection is Johnnywho but his price is too low for me to make a recommendation on him

Thanks for reading once again

Paul

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 12, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: Horse Racing, horses, sports

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

11 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

The Festival got under way today with the ground looking to be good to soft in opening races – and with a drying afternoon it won’t get any worse. The chase course was riding a bit slower than the hurdles course according to Nico de Boinville after his ‘off the sofa’ ride in the Arkle.

A note on the weather for Wednesday morning. There seems to be a possibility of frost overnight and wintry showers on Wednesday morning. This should stop any possibility of the ground drying further and may make it more testing yet. A ground update from Cheltenham tomorrow morning is recommended https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/.

I’ll go through my thoughts below on assumption of it remaining Good to Soft.

****

Onto Day 2 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-12

1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle

6 of the 11 runners here are from the Mullins stable but Final Demand looks to be the clear number one. He was very impressive last time, albeit over a longer trip and comes here with a rating 5 pounds more than anything else. I do feel he is the one to beat but the shorter trip and the undulating course (can be more of an issue for bigger horses like him) are at the back of my mind. With stamina seemingly a forte and 4 stablemates to help out, I’m expecting a well-run race to avoid an ill-suiting sprint finish

The New Lion is unbeaten and was very impressive in winning the Challow Hurdle over Christmas (a race that a notoriously bad record for its winners coming here it has to be said). The form of that race doesn’t look quite so good to me now as it did then though – even though he did win easily. He is the big UK hope here representing the Dan Skelton stable

Back in 3^rd in the Challow was Bill Joyce by 5.5 lengths. That horse then went to Cheltenham and was beaten 12 lengths by Sixmilebridge with Potters Charm separating them in 3^rd.

Admittedly Sixmilebridge was receiving weight from both 2^nd and 3^rd that day but it still makes him a viable opponent here with proven course form.

Potters Charm was odds-on favourite that day and didn’t run up to expectations. Connections did seem to have an argument about running him and it might have been better if he didn’t. His previous form on this track was excellent and if he is 100% again (stable suggests he is), he is another real contender.

The Yellow Clay was fancied but only sixth in last year’s Champion Bumper. He has been solid in his hurdles this season. Similarly to Potters Charm, he doesn’t win his races flashily but grinds them out more. That’s a good quality for me when it comes to an uphill finish like this.

I’m struggling to see a case for anything outside of these 5 but Mullins 2^nd or 3^rd strings have run well before so if fancying any of those at a big price there is still some hope.

Again Skybet offer an extra fourth place here for each-ways but again their model has shortened the win odds compared to other firms to account for this

Selection: I think Final Demand is the likeliest winner – more so if the ground doesn’t dry up any more overnight. His price is a bit too short for me though at under 2/1. I see more value in the prices of Potters Charm and Sixmilebridge as each way selections. Betting both with 4 places at Skybet makes a bit more appeal here but you’d want to back them at SP and hope for better than their current prices here. That might well happen if the two favourites are well backed

No recommendations given the advice is very limited to one bookmaker and it’s not one I can get a bet on with myself for more than pennies!

****

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase

It’s sad to see the premier longer distance race for novice chasers has no UK trained runners this year. Also 4 of the 7 runners are from the Mullins stable.

Ballyburn is the obvious favourite. He isn’t proven over this trip but wasn’t stopping last time out. His jumping isn’t flawless but it’s no worse than stablemate Dancing City’s (may require softer ground to make it more a stamina test).

Last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Stellar Story, takes the prize for most awkward looking jumper in the field though. He looked like he was given a ride just to get round and improve his confidence last time or else he may have beaten his stablemate, Better Days Ahead.

If the ground did dry further then Gorgeous Tom could become more of a contender. He’s also unproven on the trip but looks like he may relish it.

Selection. I can’t really avoid Ballyburn here. His hurdling form is a good notch above these. Would I back him around Evens though in what may be his stiffest jumping test yet – unlikely!

*****

2.40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

I’ve been sweet on Beat the Bat for some time in this race. I wasn’t sure he would get in with his lower weight so was delighted to see him scrape in at number 24.

Harry Fry’s charge run in top two mile handicaps the last two occasions and been well supported in both. It’s been evident in both though that the trip was too short and I’m sure this longer trip is something he is crying out for. His last race at Newbury has often been a good guide for this race.

Ground is not an issue whichever way it goes overnight here

Given, Dan Skelton’s past prowess in doing long range plots for handicap hurdles here respect has to be given to Be Aware. The horse’s name is well found though as bookmakers are fully aware of his credentials in making him around 5/1.

Softer ground does seem a positive for him so any overnight changes are worth noting – he is just too short a price for me now.

Willie Mullins’ Bunting is currently sharing favouritism but the stable’s record in handicap hurdles is pretty dire if you look at my previous post on this subject. I note from www.gaultstats.com that he is 1 from 50 in this race since 2010

The Mullins stable also field Jimmy Du Seuil who has s standout piece of form from this meeting last year that he hasn’t matched since. If he did find himself in the groove back here he would be a contender.

Ballyadam was 2^nd in this race last year from a mark of 147 (has today). He also ran well in the County Hurdle the previous year off. Good ground is probably what he wants and it’s easy to see him running well again but at the age of 10 now can he really improve to win off a higher mark than he has had to shoulder before.

Not every firm offering enhanced 6 places here as yet – which has been replicated moreso in other handicaps. It’s been noticeable that 5 places is often more prevalent this year and as such there is a bit less value in handicaps to be seen generally so far. In contrast, Skybet offer 8 places if you can get a bet on with them

Recommendation. Back Beat the Bat 1 pt each way at 14/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or better

****

3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Any regular devotees of my blog will know this is the time I put the kettle on and sit down to watch without getting involved in betting. A history of having jockeys taking the wrong course on this special course doesn’t help. This is the first year it has been a handicap which should make it more competitive. I still can’t help think it’s like going to Wimbledon but watching an Exhibition match played between old professionals and employing a few trick shots

With all that in mind I’ll pass on a selection and just wish anyone luck who has a bet on it!

****

4.00 Queen Mother Champion Chase

As long as we stick with a flat field of 8 runners here then each way options will give us 3 places. If one were to come out then it would go down to 2 places and make each way betting a bit less attractive.

Jonbon is unbeaten in this division this year and this looks like the opportunity for him to land his Festival win. He has been second twice here in the past and had to be withdrawn late last year when his stable had some huge issues with the form of their horses.

If it did get very soft ground it might make things harder but that looks unlikely.

One of Nico de Boinville’s main tasks will be to focus on not giving too much rope to the field’s obvious front runner, Solness.

Solness has been a revelation at Leopardstown this year when he has taken his form to a new level. He hasn’t been taken on for the lead much and connections would have been delighted when another pace option, Matata, was taken out of the race at the 5 day stage.

If he is let to roll along up front and get a decent lead, he could be dangerous (a previous run on this track wasn’t great) but I don’t think Jonbon will let him get away.

If the ground does soften up then I can envisage a better run from the 2022 champion Energumene. He is 11 years old now and firmly in the veteran stage. He was put in his place last time out by Jonbon but showed he still retains plenty of ability.

With Solness here to force the pace, and Jonbon likely to be ghosting him, I can envisage more of a hold up ride on Energumene here. This tactic worked well for him in 2022. I do think he needs some cut in the ground to have a real shot at Jonbon though

Selection; Jonbon has to be my pick on all form this year. At around 7/1 I I think Energumene would provide some each way value though – but only if the ground remains good to soft or deeper – and that there remain 8 runners. Therefore I’ll only be looking to bet him as we get closer to the race

*****

4.40 Grand Annual Challenge Cup

Another competitive handicap with last year’s winner, Unexpected Party, returning to try and retain his title of a 6 pound higher mark. The respect that bookmakers have for his trainer has again been reflected in his odds though I’d suspect Skelton may have hoped to get him lower than this mark if he could have done.

Jazzy Matty is also a previous Festival winner having triumphed in the Juveniles handicap hurdle in 2023.He is a novice here but looks to have been plotted up with a hurdle race preparation. Before then he’d gone close in a 4 runner novice chase – the form of which may be questionable as the race was very slowly run.

JPR One is the class horse of the race but has to carry 12 stone because of it and of the higher weights I prefer My Mate Mozzie, who finished one place in front of him in last year’s Arkle and is 5 pounds better off.

The likely strong pace here is likely to suit My Mate Mozzie’s hold up style. He’s a versatile horse who was placed at Royal Ascot on the flat last year but is equally effective over chases and hurdles at a high level.

He wouldn’t want to see lots of rain and I can also say the same for General Medrano who should also be suited by strong pace. He got to the front too soon at Doncaster last time but was massively impressive at Newbury earlier in the season. He’s never raced at Cheltenham before so there has to be a little question mark in my head as to if he will cope with the undulations. The price is big enough to mitigate those doubts though

Two selections here;

Recommendations

1pt ew My Mate Mozzie taking 7/1 or better with 5 places

0.5 pts ew General Medrano taking 20/1 or better

****

5.20 Champion Bumper

Another impossible race where to have any idea you would want some inside stable info – ideally from the Mullins stable with its 5 runners (a small entry from them this year!).

Copacabana’s place at the head of the market was cemented when JP McManus recently said it as his only bet coming into the meeting. An odd thing to say when he doesn’t own and recently paid plenty for Aqua Force in the same race.

Lots of horses here with impressive recent wins but we can’t be sure what they beat and how strong the form is.

Another race to sit out with no selection – but to watch carefully with a view to the future as it is a breeding ground for future good hurdlers and chasers

****

Overall, this looks a quieter betting day for me today but hopefully some food for thought is in there …for 5 of the races at least!

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back

Paul

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 11, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: betting, Cheltenham, Horse Racing, horses, sports

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

10 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

Welcome back to annual followers of my blog covering the 4 days of National Hunt racing’s Olympics!

I’ll try to work through all races again on a day-by-day basis highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself. Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.

My main social media activity now on horse racing is the Blue Sky app (bsky.app) where I’ll post any extra snippets I see during the week (@senormoodoir.bsky.social ). I have already added a few early ante post interests in there this year – some of which the prices have now dropped a good bit on – so the value on those may have disappeared by now.

I used to cover the statistical pointers that can often pick out winners but this is done so much better in recent years by www.gaultstats.com. It is Bryan Gault’s last year doing this invaluable resource and please remember to contribute to the cause he is doing it for if finding it useful.

There is a slightly different look to this year’s Festival with the placement of races and the removal of a couple of races to be replaced by new handicaps.

Centrepiece races have now been moved back to 4pm each day and are now the 5^th race on the card. Great news for younger fans who may have been trapped in school and unable to watch – about 50 years too late for me though in that regard!

Ground conditions are always going to play a significant factor. Last year we had softer conditions but there has been less rain this year and some watering has been already done to try and ensure we get Good to Soft or even Good ground which so often the Festival begins with.

Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-11-cheltenham

*take note that Oddschecker has now started to charge for this service after they deem you to have used it too much – change to another browser if you can when that happens and you should be able to access again

***

Day 1 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-11. *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses

1.20 Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The traditional opener to the meeting is this year run in honour of 2023’s winning jockey, Michael O’Sullivan, who tragically died from a riding accident last month.

It would certainly be quite fitting if the same colours were to triumph again here with William Munny, a horse with a live each-way chance.

William Munny was one of the best bumper horses in Ireland last season but it wasn’t until his 3^rd run over hurdles before he started to finally began to realise his hurdling potential with a very easy win at Punchestown. Prior to that he hadn’t settled in his races and was beaten 7 lengths by Workahead at Leopardstown. The two reoppose here but I wouldn’t take that form literally as the second looked a different article last time.

Romeo Coolio was similar level in bumpers to William Munny last year and has transitioned to hurdles very well this year.

These three are all contenders for the places for me though if Kopek Des Bordes can show the same form that blew away a decent field with ease at Leopardstown in February. One of six runners from the all-powerful Willie Mullins stable here, he is clearly their number one.

His hurdling debut showed some jumping flaws bu they did seem to have been ironed out next time. However he did show a possible weakness when getting very lit up in the preliminaries and looking like he might get out of control with jockey Paul Townend early on. I’m sure the stable would have worked on that since and a hood is applied for the first time here to help deal with the task he is going to face (Willam Munny also wearing the same first time headgear).

There is a real pressure cooker atmosphere for the first race as the crowd get revved up for the first race and there is a traditional roar. False starts are not uncommon in this race so it does present a test for the favourite.

In short I think, the biggest rival for Kopek Des Bordes could be himself. If the start goes fine and he settles he is going to take a lot of beating. If things don’t go so well then others have a chance.

At around Even money to win I can’t therefore support him.

In the past many firms have dangled a carrot in this opening race with extra places to give some value. Only Skybet have gone that far this year but in so doing are offering slightly lower prices than others so I’m still not getting too excited there (marginal preference for Romeo Coolio as the one who looks guaranteed to finish in the top 4 to me but not much between him, Workahead and William Munny)

I must also mention Tripoli Flyer who showed what an engine he has when winning the last twice easily despite some indifferent hurdling. His best form is all on decent ground (should get that) and on flat tracks (won’t get that). I thought Aintree in April would be far more suitable for him so a little surprised to see him running here. If he can cope with the track he is definitely dangerous. However, the fact his stable haven’t yet run him here , despite being almost next door to the track, suggests to me that it may not be ideal for him.

Selection: KOPEK DES BORDES (but not a betting proposition for me)

****

2.00 Arkle Challenge Trophy

I’ve already covered this in my earlier post regarding some early selections. Not much has changed except there are now only 5 runners and so there is no more each way with 3 places.

I think Majborough will win if he jumps round cleanly – but he is flamboyant at times and I can easily see him making a bad mistake at some point on this tricky course. If he does that would let the clean jumping course winner L’Eau Du Sud in as the most likely to profit.

Both horses have already beat Touch Me Not this season and should do so again. That one’s inclusion in the race is good though as he is a decent jumper who can put pressure on the favourite up front.

Jango Baie looks like he needs further and might be caught for pace at a crucial stage but should be running on late. Only By Night also looks likely to be held up and delivered late but I just don’t think her form is good enough to win.

Selection: I’ve already put up L’EAU DU SUD when each way 1/5 odds 123 was available. Place odds are less attractive now this has become less of a betting proposition. I still think he represents a little more value than the odds on favourite Majborough though

****

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase

Always a competitive handicap and one that has served me well over the years.

I’m find it very tricky this year though!

The Changing Man has done well to stay on a mark of 140 after a bloodless win last time (aided by all his rivals making errors). He has been a slow developer with his jumping technique but finally seems to have got his act together now. Whilst he has been consistent in decent handicaps this season he has been beaten in them off lower marks than here. The handicap record of his trainer Joe Tizzard (see my earlier post on trainer stats) is also disconcerting. He has a chance but I can see him placing again rather than winning – and also I think a smaller field may have suited him better.

Broadway Boy has a fine record on this course and runs here in preparation for the Grand National. That slightly puts me off here as you would imagine that connections have left some room for improvement with a bigger aim to come. He may prefer softer and for a front runner to win this off such a high weight would be quite some task.

I’ve always been drawn to lower weights carrying less than 11 stone in this race.

Katate Dori would immediately therefore be on the shortlist after an impressive win last time that sees his mark increase by 12 pounds here. He may well still be ahead of the handicapper.

Lucinda Russell has won race before and has both Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown in the right weight zone. The former has stable jockey Derek Fox on board and appears to be the number one (if there is a jockey switch take note). He had a nice sighter of these fences over an inadequate trip last time. Additionally, Whistle Stop Tour would appear to appreciate the drying conditions while Myretown may prefer softer.

Marginal preference though is for Irish challenger, The Short Go who had Broadway Boy behind him here earlier in the season (latter beaten 11 lengths and is only 5 pounds better of). He obviously doesn’t cope with deep winter ground and the forecast conditions here must be in his favour. With Rachel Blackmore on board, he might well be a popular pick on the day. Expect to see a hold up ride with him being smuggled into the race late on.

I also can’t leave an old friend, Straw Fan Jack, completely alone at huge odds. His form has been indifferent this year but there were signs of a revival last time and he’s now on a 6 pound lower mark than when 3^rd at the Festival last year (Reopposing Crebilly just ahead but worse off here yet a much shorter price). His jumping can be erratic but his form at Cheltenham overall isn’t bad. The trip is a slight question mark but he is a huge price to make up for that

Selections: Not a race for risking too much on but I’m interested in The Short Go at around 14/1 each way with firms offering 6 places. Also a speculative little each way on Straw Fan Jack at 50/1 or bigger

Recommendations

1pt ew The Short Go

0.5 pts ew Straw Fan Jack

3.20 Mares Hurdle

The complexion of this race changed enormously at the final declaration stage when last year’s winner, Lossiemouth, was declared rather than the Champion Hurdle.

Her form should be on a different level to the rest but she did suffer a nasty fall last time. She should win, but there is always going to be a slight seed of doubt about whether she is fully 100% given she sidestepped the bigger prize.

With her being odds-on favourite it’s also killed any hope of being offered an extra place on the race.

It’s possible to give place chance to nearly all the rest but I’m most drawn to Queens Gamble given she has such good past course form and will like the better ground.

A plot to take a big handicap at Leopardstown in February was scuppered by softer conditions and a bruised knee during the race (also not Blackmore’s finest of rides).

I think she’ll benefit form a longer trip here and can see her running well.

She probably won’t beat the favourite if on song but many firms offer ‘betting without the favourite’ and that option becomes more interesting in this circumstance.

Selection: QUEENS GAMBLE each way in the ‘Betting without Lossiemouth’ market at hopefully 16/1 or better

Recommendation: 1pt ew Queens Gamble – in betting without Lossiemouth market

*****

4.00 Champion Hurdle

I’ll cut to the chase here for Tuesday’s premier race.

Constitution Hill is probably the best hurdler I have seen since Golden Cygnet in the mid 1970s when I first started watching this sport.

Unless something is ailing him, and I can’t imagine he would be here if his trainer didn’t think he was 100% , then I struggle to see him getting beaten. If anything, my biggest worry would be the final hurdle. He didn’t met it right in his last run and when last wining this race he jumped way too early after seeing a shadow on it

Brighterdaysahead is a fine mare and its great to see here in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. Her pacemaker, King of Kingsfield, should make this race a true test. They employed similar tactics to hand out a thrashing to the 2024 Champion Hurdler, State Man, over the Christmas period.

That tactic should be enough to derail any hopes for State Man again, but if anything it will be help for Constitution Hill. The favourite’s most impressive career win in the Supreme Novices Hurdle came on the back of a breakneck pace also.

Burdett Road likes to force the pace also so might also find himself on the backfoot on the uphill home straight.

I put up Golden Ace as a value each way proposition on Blue Sky at 100/1 at the beginning of the year. I thought I had done my money on that as she looked likely to be in the Mares Hurdle but a late change of mind was very welcome.

I can see here being ridden for a place here (will add plenty of value to her as a broodmare) and am hopeful she can take advantage of others being broken by the favourite.

There is no more 100/1 though and no more 3 place options for each way so the value on her has largely gone

Selection; CONSTITUTION HILL – but at no more than 8/13 there aren’t too many rich pickings to be gained here

***

4.40 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Another race where I was active on Blue Sky a few weeks ago to suggest Hot Fuss at 33/1 after an unconventional prep run at Southwell.

I think he ran in one of the best juvenile races in the UK this season when putting it up to current Triumph Hurdle favourite, East India Dock, at Wincanton. He was a little disappointing in deep ground at Chepstow over Christmas but that has meant he has a nice low mark of 122 here. His Southwell win wouldn’t have affected his mark but it showed an improved performance sporting a first time visor.

Connections now use first time blinkers and I think he’s very much one to keep on the right side of whilst he has an attractive mark.

Chief danger is another of East India Dock’s victims this year, French raider Stencil. Stencil was the only one to keep with his conqueror’s strong pace last time and only gave way in the closing stages after travelling noticeably well. He is the likely favourite here but I don’t think his mark of 135 is unduly harsh – and the pace of this race will suit.

James Reveley has been saying is preview evenings recently that his mount is better than a handicapper and I tend to agree.

Far less attractive is well supported Irish raider, Total Look, who I think may almost get the prize of worst handicapped horse in the race. His UK mark of 132 is 9 pounds higher than his current Irish mark of 123. Additionally, he was beaten by both Quantock Hills and Teriferma at this track in December when receiving weight from both. Now he has to give them both 6 pounds. Cheekpieces may be on for the first time and his trainer is a shrewd operator – but if this wins there should be a stewards enquiry for some explanations!

I’m largely in the mind that Irish juvenile hurdlers this season are coming into this a little bit too harshly handicapped. It must be noted though that Joseph O’Brien won this last year with another horse who didn’t look that well in but had been prepared especially for the race. Take note then for any strong money on the day for Puturhandstogether or Beyond Your Dreams (not least because they are both owned by prolific punter JP McManus)

Selections:

STENCIL Each way taking 11/2 or better – some firms offering 6 places but not all

HOT FUSS 12/1 each way – the really nice prices have already gone unfortunately

Recommendations

2pts ew Stencil

1pt ew Hot Fuss

*****

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap

A big change to this long distance novices race this year. For the first time it is now a handicap and is no longer the domain of amateur riders. A ceiling for horse with marks no more than 145 also restricts the upper echelon of novice chasers from taking part. A bit of early planning from some stables would have been needed.

As there is no previous running there are no previous stats to work from either.

Another race I’ve already covered to some degree when offering up Haiti Couleurs in my Early Ante Post selections post.

I’m still strongly in his favour. Connections think highly enough of him to think they could have run him in the Turners Novice Chase tomorrow – a non-handicap novices championship race – but his handicap mark of 135 meant this race was always going to be more ttractive.

He has purposefully been given a small break since his immaculate round of jumping to secure a course win here in December. A hurdles run last month which would not affect his chase mark was more than satisfactory and his trainer has a great strike rate at the Festival from not too many past runners

That Cheltenham piece of form is the key to this race I think and also throws up his biggest danger, Transmission. Neil Mulholland’s charge is reunited with Patrick Mullins here and is 4 pounds better off for just over 2 lengths. He has also had a recent run over hurdles to protect his chase mark and promises to be suited by a longer trip.

The prevailing ground shouldn’t be a barrier to either horse and I think they are the two best handicapped horses in this race on this years form.

Gericault Roque is also well handicapped on past Festival form but he has only run once this year after a long lay-off since 2022. There is always a chance of a dip back in form after such a break but he still can’t be totally discounted.

Again we have a short priced Gavin Cromwell runner here, Now Is the Hour, where I simply don’t get the shortened odds. He has undoubtedly not been showing all his card this year to try and get a slimmer mark but 139 has a bit bigger waistline that they would have hoped for. His stand out piece of form comes from very deep ground at Haydock. That’s a specialist track when the ground is deep and it’s like chalk and cheese compared to this course with drier conditions

Selections: HAITI COULEURS 4/1 and TRANSMISSION 11/2 (currently best prices with all firms seeming offering 5 places rather than 6)

Recommendations:

2pts ew Haiti Couleurs

1.5 pts ew Transmission

****

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,

Paul

(I will be posting my thoughts for Wednesday’s card late tomorrow afternoon after scrutinising early results)

Already recommended on previous blog post L’Eau Du Sud 2.40 and Haiti Couleurs 5.20

Already recommended on previous BSky posts – Golden Ace e/w 100/1 4.00; Hot Fuss 33/1 4.40

(Note I have also also recommended Beat the Bat in Wednesday’s Coral Cup at 25/1 on BSky who was also confirmed for the race today and I’ll cover again tomorrow)

1 Comment

Posted by senormoodoir on March 10, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: betting, Cheltenham, cheltfest, constitutionhill, Horse Racing, horses, racing, sports

Cheltenham 2025 – Trainer records in handicaps

20 Feb

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Top trainers in handicaps update

With the publication of entries for this year’s handicaps earlier this week, I thought it an appropriate time to dust off the blog in readiness for the forthcoming Festival (March 11-14). With all that is going on elsewhere in the world, it’s a blessed distraction right now!

I did a post last year highlighting the record of top trainers in the handicaps and have updated the stats for that here with a few comments added.

Weights for these handicaps will be released on Feb 25^th and if for those not already qualified they have to do that by Feb 23^rd.

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What’s changed this year?

Firstly we have 3 more handicaps than we did last year – and they are all chases:

NH Chase.

This used to be a non-handicap but as field sizes have dwindled in recent years it becomes a handicap and is no longer for amateur riders. Three runs over fences are required to qualify and also there is a limit of a mark of 145. Several Irish runners currently quoted are likely to fall foul of being over 145 I suspect next week. I would be highly wary of backing Shannon Royale (got handed a 148 mark in Jan on a speculative Warwick entry), Sa Majeste and Search For Glory with this in mind.

Jack Richards Novice Hcap

The two and half miles novices’ championship event is no more and is now a handicap with 3 runs over fences again required. This race did exist in another name until 2020 but it then had an upper limit on handicap marks – that doesn’t exist now)

Cross Country Chase

For the first time in its history this is now a handicap. Whilst I’m no fan of this event the change can only make this event a bit more competitive. In common with all aged handicap chases at the meeting, a minimum of 4 runs over fences is required to qualify.

The number of hurdles races remain the same but qualification criteria has changed with 5 runs over hurdles now required in all aged handicaps (3 runs for the 4yo only Boodles hcap)

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Who did well last year?

The table below shows how the top trainers I covered in last year’s post did throughout the meeting.

As I did last year, its based on SP returns. Each way is using 1/5 odds 123456 which seems to be fairly standard these days. The ‘standard’ handicap place terms of ¼ odds 1234 aren’t easy to find these days even if you wanted them – I’d often still take that over 1/5 odds 12345 to be honest. While these ‘enhanced’ place terms may look attractive the difference between one quarter and one fifth odds can be quite high and I’d be wanting at least 6 places often to be tempted when it is one fifth.

Analysis of each trainer will follow later.

How does this change these trainers stats over 2019-2024 basis?

An update of the same trainers’ record over the recent 6 year period is here. I’ve separated into hurdles and chasers as there are some notable differences between individual trainer records in each sphere

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UPDATED TRAINER ANALYSIS

GORDON ELLIOTT

Elliott’s figures took a nosedive in handicaps last year. He still shows on overall profit on all his runners for each way bets over the 6 years – thanks to some big priced wins and places. He is still supplying more handicap runners than other trainers but it’s much harder to advertise his credentials as a trainer to follow in such races now. Perhaps, the handicapper has more of a grip on them. Perhaps, he is targetting the non handicaps more?

WILLIE MULLINS

As highlighted last year, the Mullins stable are not so impressive from a profit/loss perspective when it comes to handicaps (particularly in handicap chases). A 12/1 win for Absurde in last year’s County Hurdle helped redress his figures in hurdle handicaps.

He can throw unexposed horses in to such races with attractive marks but they are rarely missed by the layers and prices seldom attractive. The new rules on needing 5 hurdle runs to qualify will also make it harder to run such horses.

Mullins remains a trainer to have the utmost respect for in non handicaps but – aside from the County Hurdle ( he does have a decent record in that) and maybe the Martin Pipe hurdle – he obviously doesnt target the handicaps to the same degree.

NICKY HENDERSON

Nicky had a torrid time at last years festival with his stable under a huge cloud and many big names having to be kept at home. Consequently he had much fewer runners, and several of those that did run ran like they had an issue. It’s therefore quite noteworthy that he maintained and even increased his profit for each way supporters in the hurdles handicaps. Lucky Place and Bold Endeavour both finishing 4th at 25/1 and 50/1respectively achieved that. The former drifted to about double his early price – no doubt due o the stable problems.

Henderson remains one to keep on your side in handicap hurdles – and not necessarily with his perceived number 1 runner as historical results will testify.

DAN SKELTON

Dan had a great Festival in 2024, enhancing his P/L in both chase and hurdle handicaps. The layers have long been aware of him as a trainer who can target handicaps so you may not get the prices you would like but he is still capable proven capable of getting a horse into the right race with a workable mark. His hurdles stats are particularly impressive – something we can also relate to his time with the Nicholls stable several years back when he orchestrated some similar long term planning to great success. A trainer to always keep on your side.

PAUL NICHOLLS

This once powerhouse UK stable is a bit of a force in decline lately. His P/L in handicaps had been dire until last year when Monmiral’s win at 25/1 gave some resurgence. Afadil’s 5th place in the County Hurdle also boosted funds (no doubt help by him being gifted many lengths at the start by the rest of the field). It’s hard to imagine, a horse of his would have started 25/1for any handicap in past years (Monmiral had some decent back form) but it does show that the layers aren’t in fear of him and you may get some value on his runners. The fact he had only 5 handicap runners last year shows he has less to play with. I still find it hard to recommend Nicholls in handicaps but at least if you fancy one you might get a price now. The loss of key assistants like Skelton, Derham and Fry over the years has no doubt had an effect

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

Henry used to be quite selective when sending horses to this meeting and was one to be feared. There seem to be more running now – no doubt because of the big name owners he now has – but his P/L is going in the wrong direction. Ballyadam came close to winning the Coral Cup last year but he remains having no hurdle winners in the past 6 years from 24 contenders. Chasers have a better record and where the stable does retain a bit more of an edge. Another stable that may be concentrating more on non handicaps now? As mentioned last year, the presence of Rachel Blackmore on his horses can also serve to push the price down also

VENETIA WILLIAMS

Hurdles stats not included here as Venetia has always had more success in the chasing sphere. She didnt have any winners last year but Gemirande (5th 40/1) and Frero Banbou (6th 28/1 in the Plate – a race she has traditionally done well in) kept her in a good overall profit for each way support in chase handicaps. She is traditionally associated with soft ground performers and can shine in the winter months of deep ground. You’d be wise to write her off in handicap chases still – but even more so if the mud is flying.

JOE TIZZARD

Nothing in his figures to enhance his claims as a trainer to follow in handicaps here. My personal feeling is that his horses are often pitched too high too early and their marks are too exposed by the time they get here

Others of note:

BEN PAULING had an 8/1 winner (Shakeumupharry) and 28/1 second (Twig) in handicap chases last year. He’d be showing a good profit in chase handicaps over the years (largely due to Global Citizen’s 28/1 win in 2022). He wouldn’t have too many runners compared to those already listed but he does seem to be able to target his horses in the chasers for the day.

JOSEPH O’BRIEN may be more flat based but he is still noteworthy when targeting horses for hurdles handicaps. Last years Boodles winner Larkinthemornin didn’t seem nhat attractively handicapped but easily surpassed previous form to give him a 9/1 winner (Harsh was placed at 40/1 in same race for him). Joseph had been to this party before with Band of Outlaws so its a race to watch his runners closely in

*****

Hopefully a bit of food for though in these stats for anyone scrutinising the handicaps in the next few weeks.

My regular blog will be back Cheltenham week

Paul

1 Comment

Posted by senormoodoir on February 20, 2025 in Uncategorized

Tags: Horse Racing, horses, sports

Grand National 2024

11 Apr

Saturday 13^th April at 4pm is the time to sit tight and hope for no problems at the start in this year’s Grand National.

I was fortunate to grow up in the Red Rum era and it was that that probably cemented it as the race I most looked forward to all year.

Sadly, a lot of tinkering with the safety of the track over recent years has left it not looking quite the race it was, but it remains a spectacle.

This year sees the maximum field reduced to 34 from 40 and a shorter run to the first fence to try and avoid the customary cavalry charge and ensuing falls.

For me, the worst change to the course has been the easing of some of the fencing, most notably Becher’s Brook, which is a pale shadow of the test it used to be.

In days of yore, there was a gamble to be taken by taking the inside line here where the drop was at its steepest. The field would be spread all over the track with the outside line for the safe option.

Now that fence has been eased so much that there is no advantage at all and going wide. Consequently. most horses take a middle to inside line and there can be a bit of a ‘golden highway’ to be taken. This results in too much bunching to get the best line for me and that in itself means accidents are more likely. I’m glad that the field size has been reduced because of this but would prefer it to take a few steps back. Loose horses could still be a major problem with only half of the track really being used

I’m sure there will still be a rush to get a good early position on the right part of the track so I am dubious that the shortened run will have the desired effect at the first fence.

The forecast soft/heavy ground should at least ensure that the field doesn’t go too fast too early (or most won’t get home) so hopefully that does help in reducing the faller list.

The easier fencing has also resulted in more Grade 1 chasers taking their chance here – and nowadays that means mostly Irish runners. The lack of English horses isn’t a good look.

I would like to see the introduction of ‘win and you’re in’ races that allow automatic qualification to circumvent this a bit and give the chance to proven staying types to get back into the race again even if their handicap marks wouldn’t allow it.

Winners of this year’s Welsh National and Becher Chases, and previous year’s winners of Irish, Scottish and Midlands Grand Nationals would all be excellent contenders to be used in my opinion. It’s something that has been used in the Melbourne Cup for many years and might well benefit this race.

THE GROUND

Having watched a few races on the opening day, the ground isn’t as bad as the bog like conditions that had been predicted. It still looked quite hard work in the one race on the national fences where stamina ultimately won the day. Rain is predicted tonight so the extent of that is going to be important. The going can be checked here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/aintree/owners-and-trainers/the-going/ 

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Onto the race itself. I’ve covered a few vital stats that have found winners in previous years’ posts but as the fences have become easier, they have started to be of less importance and have been broken more often. Pre-2010 I would haven’t have been keen on supporting an 8yo horse in this race but since then 4 have won. Noble Yeats won as a 7yo in 2022 and that was practically unheard of before then. The track changes have definitely helped the less experienced younger horses – and lessened the chances of the hardened 10-year-old + veterans commensurately. It’s now 10 years since the last winner with a double figure age triumphed (Pineau de Re in 2014)

Carrying more than 11 stones used to be a negative, but as the test has lessened it’s become easier. However, the ground looks like it may be softer than it has been for a while this year and that should swing some of the favour back to the lower weights this year.

It’s still noteworthy that in the last 10 years there have still been only two horses who have carried more than 11 stones to victory. The two exceptions were Aintree legend, Tiger Roll, and Many Clouds (a truly gargantuan effort to win under 11st 9lbs – not seen since the days of ‘Rummy’)

A good point to start when analyzing this race is to look at last year’s result, a rerun can be seen here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBwU4aZEsJw

Several of these meet again but the weights they carry will be higher or lower than this:

1^st Corach Rambler – races off 13lb higher mark

2^nd Vanillier (beaten 2.25 lengths and running off 4lb higher this year)

4^th Noble Yeats (beaten 9.5 lengths – now 1lb lower). He won the race in 2022 but was racing off an 18lb lower mark then.

7^th Roi Mage (beaten 15 lengths – races off same mark)

Pulled Up were Coko Beach (now 6lb higher), Capodanno (one pound higher now).

Unseated Rider – Delta Work (now 2lb lower), Galvin (now 11 lbs lower), Mr Incredible (carries 5lb more now)

Some things to note from watching the race again. The winner got a perfect ride keeping largely to the inside and jumped superbly. Vanillier got too far behind before staying on strongly. Capodanno was still going very well until the latter stages and not persevered with when his chance had gone. Mr Incredible also took a good inside line and had every chance when his saddle slipped at the Canal Turn. Delta Work still had every chance when misfortune struck.

With this in mind let’s now look at this year’s major contenders:

CORACH RAMBLER.

Everything went right for him last year and if anything, he got to the front a bit too soon and could have been value for a bit further. He’s paid for that with his weight increase this year. It could have been worse though as previous winners have had more on their back second time round than him. On his recent Gold Cup third his weight also looks attractive. On the flipside, he is 9lb and 14lb worse off with last years 2^nd and 4^th. That gives them every chance to reverse placings.

You’d have to say Corach Rambler had a slightly harder prep race this year than he did last year and that would be a little concern. Interviewed after the race, trainer Lucinda Russell suggested that jockey Derek Fox ‘looked after him’ on the run-in once his chance to win had gone. He looked legless to me though, and on that soft ground he encountered there it could have taken more out of him than ideal. He has to be a contender, but it is worth noting that he was a similar price of around 5/1 at this stage last year and drifted to 8/1 on the day. I can see his price going out in similar fashion again so if backing him now, you would want ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ to be part of the deal. Very soft ground might not be ideal so any sign of ‘heavy’ in the going on race day wouldn’t be good

I AM MAXIMUS

Last year’s Irish Grand National winner seems to have improved again this year. He easily beat Vanillier in his warm-up race and is weighted to confirm that form. His jumping can be problematic and it’s also significant that all his best performances have come at the right-handed Fairyhouse track. Yet to race over these fences and his form over left-handed tracks like here, is yet to match the mark he has been given here

VANILLIER

A powerful finisher last year coming from a long way back, this horse certainly has an engine. The problem has always been that he hasn’t been the most natural looking jumper and that’s why he probably got too far behind in the race last year. It’s so much easier to run into trouble when most of your opponents are ahead of you here. There are a lot of clips of him schooling recently as they try to improve that aspect but it’s still a big cause for concern. I couldn’t imagine him completing this course in past renewals and it says a lot about how easier things have got that he did so last year. He may also be a better horse when the ground isn’t so soft. If he is withing shouting distance three fences out they should all be scared…but I still think he is odds on not complete even if the jumping test is easier now.

MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

Plenty of money for this one during this week. Although JP McManus’s number one jockey, Mark Walsh, didn’t pick him to ride it’s certainly no bad thing to have Danny Mullins on board (partnered him to win in a hot Leopardstown handicap in December).

Looked like he needed further in a very decent prep effort at Cheltenham last time and he’s in the ideal weight range here now. I think there could be a few better handicapped but there has been a constant whisper from the Mullins stable that he is better than what he has shown so far

KITTYS LIGHT

Last year’s Scottish National winner has crept in at the very foot of weights. He has absolutely no stamina issues but also has no great form on soft ground. That isn’t surprising as his breeding is more Flat than National Hunt orientated. Some may decry his chances as he isn’t that big, but I’ve seen similar sized types jump round here superbly well when the fences were bigger. It’s the ground that will scupper his chances for me and connections will be praying for no more rain and sunshine/drying winds

MR INCREDIBLE

Unlucky to unseat at the Canal Turn last year when still going well (just behind Corach Rambler at the time). He was also only seven then so is entitled to have improved a bit more now. Stamina on soft ground should be no issue here after his second off a high weight in the even mor testing Midlands Grand national last time. If that effort hasn’t left a mark, and he has improved for what was his seasonal debut he has to be a big player here. One of the few who would love it to keep raining.

PANDA BOY

This was my early fancy for the race when the weights first came out. Trainer Martin Brassil knows how to win this race and both he and jockey, JJ Slevin, are underrated in my view. He’s been given an ideal preparation in my eyes with an eye-catching run over an insufficient hurdling test last time out. My main concern has to be the ground though as he often seemed that soft ground wasn’t ideal. His price drifted badly at Leopardstown over Christmas, no doubt due to the softening ground, but still ran a great race. He gave Meetingofthewaters 10 lbs that day and was beaten 4.5 lengths. He is 11lb better off here and that gives him every chance to reverse. He appeared to not quite stay in I Am Maximus’s Irish national win, but he is a big horse, and his trainer has suggested he has strengthened up a lot since then. That could help both his stamina and ground concerns now he’s 8.

MAHLER MISSION

I can’t recall the last time a horse won this having did not have a run in the same calendar year but Mahler Mission hasn’t run since an excellent 2^nd in the Coral Gold Trophy in November. He was raised 7 lbs for that effort and admirable though he is I think his rating overestimates him too much for this

NASSALAM

Stamina on soft ground is again looking assured here after his impressive Welsh Grand National win back in December. He sure paid a price for that though and was walloped with a massive 16lb weight rise for this. A huge task now for a 7-year-old to carry 11st 8lb here

LIMERICK LACE

The Mares Chase winner at Cheltenham was a surprising addition to me given she is still only 7. No doubt it was to take advantage of her mark of 147 and it’s noteworthy that Mark Walsh chose her to ride over both I Am Maximus and Meetingofthewaters. She won at Cheltenham through stamina but that was over 2 and a half miles and way short of this. She’s never raced over more than 3 miles but certainly looks to have stamina potential for further. She exhibited some tail swishing tendencies last time – sometimes worrying – but gets the benefit of the doubt as it didn’t seem to stop her there. If she stays, she’s a dangerous one off quite a nice weight as the ground would not be an issue for her

MINELLA INDO

The 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner has gone through some slow regression since then but is still no back number at the age of 11. More concerning is that he always used to be a horse who needed a run to get him fit. His intended prep race at Cheltenham was abandoned and that could leave him at a disadvantage now. Don’t underestimate the power of having Rachel Blackmore in the saddle to bring down his price on the day though (Aintthatashame dropped to 10/1 last year). If you fancy him, it may be best to take an early price now

NOBLE YEATS

The 2022 Grand National winner was given a massive weight rise for his efforts when returning last year but still posted an excellent 4^th. Connections also blamed a hard prep race in the Cheltenham Gold Cup for his effort then and have come here with a less conventional preparation this year. To win from 11st 12lb topweight would still go down as one of the greatest ever weight carrying performance though. Any drying in the ground may help him to shoulder that weight a bit more but an honourable place again looks a more conceivable target than a win

GALIA DES LITEAUX

Represents the dan Skelton stable who know how to plot a handicap win. Her mark looks fairly exposed to me though. She won’t mind soft ground,, but I tend to think she likes things her own way up front and is unlikely to have a solo time here

LATENIGHTPASS

From the hunter chase sphere, Latenightpass is a previous winner of the Aintree Foxhunters. While he has won over 3ml 5fur over the Cheltenham Cross Country course, that event can often be falsely run and not give a true picture of stamina. I’ve long thought that about 3 miles on decent ground was his optimum and he gets neither here. Hope he gives Gina Andrews a nice spin round, but I think he’ll find the trip too far

CAPODANNO

Pulled up last year but looked to be travelling as well as anything until the final few fences. He definitely has some class and his fourth in the Ryanair Chase last time showed he needed further. But this distance is a huge leap, especially with the 11st 8lb on his back

ROI MAGE

A fine effort to be 7^th last year showed the fences held no terrors. Softer ground this time might stretch his stamina even more although he does cope with suh ground over shorter trip. Being aged 12 now he’s not a win contender but the sort to keep an eye on for any attractive Top 10 prices

BEST OF THE REST….

MAC TOTTIE has won over the course twice but over much shorter trips and stamina is a big concern. CHAMBARD also has winning course form from earlier this season on heavy ground, but that effort seems to have taken its toll since. At the ages of 11 and 12, they are both up against it.

AINT THAT A SHAME was well backed last year but pulled up. He posted his best effort last time but has been sold since to the swashbuckling amateur rider Mr David Maxwell. How much of a difference is there between him and last year’s rider, Rachel Blackmore. I’ll let you decide……

GALVIN has top class back form but a marked need for decent ground. It would be no surprise to see him a non-runner if the ground remains testing. If it does get better than he is an interesting outsider. His stablemate, DELTA WORK, was my fancy last year when unseating his rider before the race reached its closing stages. He is another who missed his prep race through abandonment. He was 3^rd in 2022 but is 11 now and despite being 3lb lower than then I’d worry that he may be too old now. THE GOFFER, also from the Elliott stable has both stamina and soft ground worries

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VERDICT

This isn’t an easy race to decipher with the combination of softer ground, easier fences and a smaller field all to balance

It’s certainly more of a race to enjoy with more limited stakes if betting but given firms are often falling over themselves to give extra places there should be some value to be had with each way betting.

At the time of writing most firms are offering 6 places, but a few offer 7 places (4 is the standard for handicaps with 16 runners or more). On Friday night we could start to see even 8 places offered

It’s one of the few races where backing several each way isn’t such a bad thing as so much place money can come back

My shortlist for the win this year is largely built around those carrying less than 11 stone which is a barrier line for me on soft ground…and being aged under 10

MR INCREDIBLE (top of the list if ground is soft/heavy)

MEETINGOFTHEWATERS

PANDA BOY

LIMERICK LACE

Just missing out because of weight are CORACH RAMBLER and NOBLE YEATS who remain place contenders

Thanks for reading and best of luck with whatever you choose

Paul

( in the meantime, those who read my Topham Trophy blog will know I’m firmly cheering on Lounge Lizard on Friday. The dangers in my mind are Bill Baxter (price way too short though on him), Lifeinthepark (has often struggled to fulfil his potential, and a lively outsider in Grandads Cottage. Shakeumupharry did me proud for the blog during Cheltenham but I fear for him on this very long run in

1 Comment

Posted by senormoodoir on April 11, 2024 in Uncategorized

Tags: Grand National, Horse Racing, horses, sport, tips

Aintree 2024 – Topham Trophy

04 Apr

Another big National Hunt festival is on the horizon next week with Aintree commencing on Thursday 11^th April for 3 days.

I will be doing my usual piece on the ‘piece de resistance’ – the Grand National after the final declarations are done on the 11^th.

It’s not the only big race of interest though and this extra blog post concentrates on Friday’s Topham Trophy where I’ve got an early ante post interest.

The Topham is also run over the Grand National course but over a shorter trip. It’s been a race that always interested me just as much as the big one itself.

Current ante post odds can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/topham-handicap-chase/winner.

Note that on Saturday 6th April, the 5 days declarations for Friday’s card will be done and odds will be revised as some runners are taken out. This post hopes to take advantage of prices now before that occurs.

Given it is April we normally expect the ground to be more spring-like for this meeting. However, with rainfall still uncommonly high, the ground is currently soft/heavy. With more rain forecast, we have to expect it may be soft going next week also.

At the top of the market, we see a few who performed well at the Cheltenham Festival – In Excelsis Deo, Crebilly, Shakemupharry, James Du Berlais, The Goffer. It’s noteworthy that the last 4 winners of the Topham all avoided Cheltenham. Cheltenham was also run on quite soft ground so I would have a little concern about how hard a race this group had – and if this race is an afterthought for them.

Last year’s winner Bill Baxter is also fighting for favouritism. Last year he’d won 3 of his previous 4 races coming into this. That win could have taken its toll a bit as he hasn’t shown the same form since. The upside is that his mark has dropped again so he comes here only a pound higher than last year. He’d have to be a contender given this race has had a few back-to-back winners before. He could just be a different horse here but as things stand, he’ll need 16 horses to drop out above him to get into this year’s race (maximum field size is 30 runners). He’s also better off with last year’s runner-up Fantastic Lady (she ran well given she would prefer a better surface but may not get it this time)

2022 winner Mac Tottie is also entered but he is also engaged in the Grand National and may not be a certain runner. He’s also on a much higher 11-pound mark than when he won this so will need all his proven skills jumping this course to be competitive again.

The likelihood of soft ground would also be a concern for Ben Pauling’s Your Darling. A talented but frustrating type, he has a great record of running fresh after a long break – as he will here. This is the highest mark he’s ever had to carry though.

Dan Skelton’s skills in preparing one for a big handicap were there for all to see at Cheltenham and his Sail Away also had the right look about him when entries came out. There was some early support for him, and I’d give him a great chance on good ground, but I fear the rain is against him. It wouldn’t be a shock to see him skip this race if it stayed soft and wait for the Ayr meeting a week later where he won last year. If the ground did dry up however, he’d be high up on my shortlist

And so, onto the one that really catches my eye – Henry Daly’s LOUNGE LIZARD. You wouldn’t touch a 7-year-old in the Grand National normally but in this race it’s no bad thing at all (Bill Baxter a case in point last season).

Like last year’s winner, he’s a proper chasing type who has simply taken time to grow into his frame and start to fulfil his potential (a type well suited to his trainer).

It was over these National fences back in the Becher Chase back in December where he first really hit my radar. There he seemed to enjoy his baptism over the big fences and had no trouble sharing the lead with a real course pro in Percussion. All went well until the Canal Turn where something happened (I think loose horse related) that caused him to drop from leading to 4^th and losing several lengths. He was still bang there until the home turn but the effort on heavy ground, combined with a half mile further trip, then took its toll. He wasn’t given a hard time from thereon but immediately went into my notebook with this race in mind – especially since he was carrying 6 pounds more than his official mark.

That race can’t have left too much of a mark as he reappeared to finish 2^nd in a warm Cheltenham handicap next time. That was over a furlong less than this race and he certainly wasn’t stopping at the finish. G A Law who beat him that day maybe weighted to confirm form, but he has to carry a massive weight here and certainly didn’t have a good prep when pulling up at the Cheltenham Festival)

The last four winners of this race all ran early in March but avoided Cheltenham. I was delighted when Lounge Lizard skipped to the Festival too and instead had a workmanlike win at Huntingdon on 3^rd March. I can’t imagine that the tight right-handed track was what he wanted there, and this more demanding left-handed course will suit so much better.

The narrow win did at least mean his mark wasn’t raised too high and he comes here off 136 – the same mark he effectively had to run off here in December.

In short, I think he had a great sighter of these fences earlier this season and this has probably been the plan for him ever since.

25/1 is available in a place still, but I’m also happy to support at 20/1.

He is number 40 currently so needs 10 to come out to ensure a run. I’ll be hopeful that a few of those will drop out on Saturday. There’s no cause for concern if ten don’t drop out come race day with ante post rules though – balloted out horses are entitled to a refund under general Ante Post rules

***UPDATE – Saturday 6th April. 5 day declarations are now in and with 16 horses being withdrawn. Lounge Lizard sits at number 24 and is guaranteed a run in the race. Last year’s winner, Bill Baxter, also now finds himself in a safe position at 28. Two of the early favourites, In Excelsis Deo and Crebilly ,were taken out of the race today. There will be one more remaining entry stage on Wednesday when the final declarations will be made.***

Recommendation

Back Lounge Lizard at 20/1 of better for 1pt ew

I’ll write more about the Grand National next week where the ground will have a major influence if it stays soft. I’d be looking at lower weights far more the worse the ground is. At this stage the one who sticks out as wanting all the rain and having the right weight would be Mr Incredible and so wouldn’t put anyone off a small each way double with the Topham selection as I think his price may drop a good bit the more it rains

Thanks for reading,

Until next week,

Paul

(For anyone looking for full stats on the Aintree meeting I’d advise you to check @ChrisGartner2 on Twitter/X who can supply a highly detailed document with some great information included. Some essential reading in there!)

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Posted by senormoodoir on April 4, 2024 in Uncategorized

Tags: Aintree, Horse Racing, tips, Topham

Cheltenham 2024 – Day 4

14 Mar

Onto the final day’s action

As I write with 3 races complete on Day 3, the ground appears to be improving a little and is now Soft rather than Heavy. If we get no rain in the next 24 hours, then it could be decent conditions tomorrow. There is currently some rain forecast overnight though. A check of conditions tomorrow morning will influence the strength of some of my picks below. For now, I’m assuming it will be the same as today

A nice winner on the blog on day 3 with Shakemupharry means recommended bets are now showing a 10.7 pt profit this week from 32 pt staked (including places from Ginnys Destiny and Where It All Began). Golden Ace not recommended but favourably mentioned. Hopefully some latched onto her as well.

A proper JP McManus plot came to fruition in the last with Inothewayurthinking winning easily and justifying a fairly ridiculous looking price of 13/8 in a 22 runner handicap.

A good day for the UK side otherwise with 5 winners from the 7 races

*******

130 Triumph Hurdle

Sadly, the problems with the Henderson stable meant that ante post favourite Sir Gino was taken out of this race today. At least we got to know the news early so markets could be adjusted in good time

It’s hard not to see an Irish success with only heavy ground loving SALVER seemingly having any chance for the home side. It’s impossible to equate his form against the Irish but I would suspect he hasn’t beaten too much of note as yet – even if he hasn’t been pushed to do so.

Most of the Irish runners have been running against each other this season and their form is closely tied. There is no standout contender amongst them. KARGESE came out best at Leopardstown last time but given that was MAJBOROUGH’s first run since leaving France, it would be no surprise to see him improve enough to turn the table.

NURBURGRING didn’t run there but was only a nose behind KARGESE in his last run. He’s a classy flat staying performer and I feel wasn’t suited at all by the slow pace that day. A stronger gallop here looks to be ideal for him. I like he’s been given a break to freshen up for this and with the stable already winning one juvenile hurdle at this meeting he’s my favoured option.

SALVATOR MUNDI hasn’t run since April last year when just beaten by Sir Gino in France. That form reads very well now but his preparation has been held up and he was forced to miss the big Leopardstown trial. Coming here on his first run for Mullins is pitching in very deep very quickly. Jockey booking doesn’t suggest he’s the main hope of the Mullins stable either. I suspect he’s more of a project now to keep his maiden status here with novice hurdling in mind next season.

VERDICT. With the ground not quite as deep as it was, I think the useful flat performer Nurburgring will be favoured most and with some firms offering 4 places will do for me.

RECOMMENDATION: 1.5 pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (with firms offering 1/5 odds 1234)

*****

210 County Hcap Hurdle

Dan Skelton has already been in terrific form at this Festival, and this is the race in which he has always excelled. Both L’EAU DU SUD and last year’s winner FAIVOIR therefore have to be prime contenders here. Both ran very well when they were in 2nd and 5th place in Newbury’s Tote Gold Trophy. FAIVOIR has done that form no harm since. He still remains on a good mark here while L’EAU DU SUD was raised 6 pounds since Newbury. Oddsmakers are well aware of the Skelton record here though so don’t expect generous pricing

KING OF KINGSFIELD had ABSURDE behind him when both were some way behind the two principles in a hot novice event last time. However, that was behind two horses who have won here since this week. His mark of 140 certainly looks very generous now. I just wonder if he wants better ground, but his class could still see him through

It’s last year’s race where I go to find an outsider who I think could run well here. It’s always a tough ask for 5-year-olds to do well in handicap hurdles but PETIT TONNERRE didn’t do badly at all to be 6 lengths behind FAIVOIR and the second PIED PIPER. He’s had an interesting time over chases this season where I often got the feeling his mark was being looked after. He reverts to hurdles here and connections have reached for a first-time visor. Six is a much better age for this race and his mark is now 4 pounds lower

VERDICT. I think a few at the top of the market are just a bit too short so am going for a bit of value with all the extra places being offered

RECOMMENDATION 0.5 pts ew PETIT TONNERRE (look for 25/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or more)

*****

250 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Soft ground for this longer distance novice event can often throw some surprise winners. It’s sometimes the experience and hardened types who can get their moment in the sun.

I think there is no more promising novice in the UK than GIDLEIGH PARK, but I do worry if 3 miles in soft ground at this stage of his development could be too much. If he were mine, I’d rather they skipped this race and saved him for Aintree if being honest

He’s much more attractively priced than READINTOMMYWRONG who also promises to improve again over this trip but is unproven. The price here is no doubt influenced by the power of his stable in the novices department

VERDICT. I’m a big fan of GIDLEIGH PARK and wouldn’t want to back against him. I’d rather back win only here as it’s the type of race I could see many runners being looked after for the future if the test appears to be too much for them

RECOMMENDATION

1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK taking 13/2 or better

*****

330 Cheltenham Gold Cup

The premier race of the meeting sees rivalry ensued by last year’s impressive winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and FASTORSLOW. They have never met on this course but since have met 3 times and the score is currently 2-1 to FASTORSLOW. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has won the latest duel coming out victorious by 4 lengths

I can’t really envisage a winner coming outside of these 2. Last year’s Grand National winner CORACH RAMBLER would be dangerous if within spitting distance with half a mile to go but I fear he may get himself too far detached.

The state of the ground will have some bearing here. The softer it is favours GALOPIN DES CHAMPS but if it dries some more, it gets closer. It’s been noticeable that FASTORSLOW has gained more lengths while jumping than his rival in all their meetings.

Also worth noting that FASTORSLOW had wind surgery straight after his last run.

VERDICT. It is the pricing that dictates matter for me here. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is around Evens while FASTORSLOW is around 5/1. I think the former remains the likeliest winner but don’t see the gap between them being as big as odds suggest. I also struggle to see FASTORSLOW out of the frame and with many firms offering an enhanced four places that has to be the value play for me . Mullins Gold Cup winners tend to have come here when they have had a light and easy preparation. This year things haven’t been always so smooth in th warm up to make me think the favourite is a certainty

RECOMMENDATION; 2pts ew FASTORSLOW 5/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available)

*****

410 Foxhunters Chase

I’ve never been an expert on the point to point/hunter chase realm so will have to take a pass on it here. The only vibe I really get is that FERNS LOCK would have stamina issues on this trip/ground

NO BET

*****

450 Mares Chase

DINOBLUE’s form is clearly the best here but it all comes at 2 miles. Over an extra half mile on soft ground there has to be a question mark that I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking 11/10 to find out the answer.

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from BRIDES HILL this season and apparently no horse works better in Gavin Cromwell’s yard. The ground is her issue. I would have no hesitation in backing her here on good to soft or better, but this may be too soft?

Stablemate LIMERICK LACE will have no such ground issues. She really wants a longer trip but will expose any stamina frailties in rivals. It’s interesting that Keith Donoghue seemed to be certainly riding Brides Hill a week ago but has switched to her.

ALLEGORIE DE VASSY was second last year but is a quirky mare who definitely has two ways of running. She’s capable of winning but not reliable.

VERDICT. Not a race for me to get involved with until I’ve seen what the ground is like mid afternoon tomorrow. I do favour the two Cromwell mares’ chances at the prices. If the ground appears to be drying, I’d be with BRIDES HILL. If it remains testing, then I’d favour LIMERICK LACE. But for now……NO BET

*****

530 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle

The final race is often full of budding talent that could be beyond the grip of the handicapper. It’s not that long since Galopin Des Champs first advertised his talent in this.

The market certainly expects QUAI DE BOURBON and WATERFORD WHISPERS to be two such types. Prices of 3/1 and 4/1 in a competitive 23 runner handicap don’t get me jumping in the air with excitement though. WATERFORD WHISPERS’s form is closely tied with ANSWER TO KAYF who is double the price.

I like the fact that ANSWER TO KAYF has been ridden regularly by the same conditional rider who accompanies him here. I’d just feel a bit happier if John Shinnick had some previous experience on this course.

A mention also has to be given to OCASTLE DES MOTTES who was a warm favourite for the Tote Gold Trophy but lost his chance when getting upset at the start. He retains a mark that looks generous on his previous French form

NO ORDINARY JOE was second in this last year off only a 1-pound lower mark. He looked to be being set up for the race again but as he comes from the troubled Henderson stable it’s impossible to be sure if he’ll be 100% here

VERDICT: I slightly favour ANSWER TO KAYF but am struggling to see any great value in odds available right now’ A couple of firms offering 9/1 on him right now is close to a recommendation for small stakes. I’d ideally like to see him slip out to a double figure price tomorrow to get involved

NO BET

****

That’s all for Day 4 and for this year’s Cheltenham Festival

Hope you have enjoyed reading today and throughout the week

Paul

SUMMARY OF DAY 4 RECOMMENDATIONS

130 1.5pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available)

210 0.5pts ew PETIT TONNERRE 25/1 (taking 1/5odds 123456)

250 1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK 13/2

330 2pts EW FASTORSLOW 5/1 (take 1/5 odds 1234 where available)

TOTAL STAKED 9.5 PTS

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 14, 2024 in Uncategorized

Tags: betting, Cheltenham, cheltenham-festival, Horse Racing, tips

Cheltenham 2024 – Day 3

13 Mar

It’s St Patrick’s Thursday today and given what’s already happened so far this week there should be further cause to celebrate in the Emerald Isle today.

The main vanguard trainer of UK hopes – Nicky Henderson – continues to be having a nightmare of a meeting. Jonbon yesterday and Shishkin (Friday’s Gold Cup) became non-runners due to excessively poor form of stable runners in recent days. There could be more withdrawals to come from that stable before the week is out (Lucky Place did run well today but others most definitely have a problem)

*****

130 Turners Novices Chase

Irish hopes for a perfect start today rest mainly with FACILE VEGA. The son of 5 times festival winner Quevega, there has always been mighty expectation of this horse. He won the Bumper here two years ago, then finished second in the meeting opener last year. His chasing career hasn’t gone quite to plan so far, and he is stepped up in trip here in an attempt to put less pressure on his jumping. He has something to prove in the chasing sphere still to me and I think his price is too short compared to his actual chance.

GREY DAWNING is shortest priced of the home side with the market favouring him to turn round earlier season form with GINNYS DESTINY. I’m not so sure he will. He looks like an impressive horse on flatter tracks but do the undulations here ideally suit? He got beaten by making a shuddering mistake two fences out and I wouldn’t be surprised if his jumping was put under scrutiny again here.

GINNYS DESTINY is unbeaten here this season and his professional jumping style is always going to be an asset. Whilst it may look on paper he may struggle to confirm form with Grey Dawning, he looked to improve significantly last time out. He didn’t get any easy lead that time but that didn’t bother him at all. To win a very competitive handicap as he did under 12 stones was a top-class effort in my eyes

IROKO adds further spice and looked like a great prospect early in the season until he got sidelined with injury. It looked like he would be out until next year, but connections have got him back. It would be some feat of training though to get him back to the level required to win this.

Verdict: GINNYS DESTINY is the most solid option here for me. Firms seem keen to lay him but I can’t figure out quite why. Possibly due to two stable runners performing badly this week? There were excuses for both of them though, so I don’t see any reason to press a panic button there yet. Anyway, his price has drifted from about 3/1 to 5/1 today and I’m not complaining about that

Recommendation; 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY (take 5/1 if you can but 9/2 also acceptable)

******

210 Pertemps Network Final Hcap Hurdle

Horses have to qualify for this by finishing in the first 4 of any ‘heats’ held during the year. The qualification criteria used to be far easier for runners to sneak into the race by not trying too hard (or by not running at all if races were abandoned). It’s much harder to do that now – and that’s a good thing for this race in my view

MILL GREEN has a very consistent record at the Festival. He has jumped the last hurdle in the lead in this race the last two years and finished 3^rd on both occasions (beating all his rivals on the stands side of track both times). He may be 12 now but still looked to have lost nothing of his ability when qualifying last time at Exeter. He looked likely to win then but got hampered and the cause wasn’t persevered with. As a result, his mark wasn’t increased, and it looked like a perfect prep to me. The problem is he is trained by Nicky Henderson – a huge black spot there given what has happened this week.

Stablemate Lucky Place ran very well yesterday but others most definitely haven’t. He would be a recommendation here, but the stable form is once again impossible to factor in now

Others of note who may be a little better than their mark:

CUTHBERT DIBBLE is progressive and in the fullness of time may be better than 139. However, I’d worry about just how hard a race he had last time in desperate ground at Haydock.

LE MILOS. All his best form comes chasing but he would have a higher handicap mark there. His form this season is noting special but then so was his stablemate Langer Dan. Dan Skelton showed once again yesterday how he can prime one perfectly for a big handicap hurdle here.

ICARE ALLEN. Hasn’t run since qualifying in November. Could easily be plotted up for this. Most of his form at 2 miles but that has looked patently too short a trip for him lately. Go back to his Triumph hurdle 4^th in 2022 and you would say he is thrown in here..but there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then

VERDICT. I’m hoping the old boy Mill Green hasn’t come down with whatever is plaguing his stable, he could easily be declared a non-runner yet. I have backed him ante post but couldn’t put him up as a bet now with all the doubts around

NO BET

*******

250 Ryanair Chase

BANBRIDGE would be the one to beat here on his favoured good ground. He was taken out of the meeting last year when the ground was soft – not as soft as this – and I’m surprised he’s still running. Don’t be surprised to see him pulled out yet and a deduction made to all prices being offered.

I see this as a wide-open race where I can give some sort of a chance to everything.

Because of that it’s a NO BET race on this side…. if someone put a gun to my head to make a selection, I’d still probably end up giving out three of four!

*****

330 Stayers Hurdle

TEAHUPOO came third here last year when favourite. He’s been kept fresher this year and he is most definitely the one to beat in my mind. The price at under 2/1 is just a bit too low now after he has come in for recent support.

SIRE DU BERLAIS and DASHEL DRASHER beat him last year when they started racing very early and it turned into a war to get home up the hill. Both them and PAISLEY PARK are firmly in the veteran stage now but would be very popular winners

If it did turn into a similar power battle though they should all fear NOBLE YEATS who uses this as prep race for the Grand National and will stay every yard of this trip and much more.

I do think a year older TEAHUPOO will be too strong for all of these though.

CRAMBO is the UK’s new young hope. It would be great for local trainer, cake-loving Fergal O’Brien to get his first Festival success here. There can’t be many more popular trainers in the game. I would like to have seen some course form from him coming into this though

VERDICT; TEAHUPOO would have to be my selection but he’s a bit too short to recommend a bet on.

*****

410 Plate Hcap Chase

CREBILLY is the JP McManus plot horse here. His form certainly makes you think his mark of 140 is lenient. I have a major worry here though that all his best form comes in small fields and a 21-runner handicap may be his undoing. 7/2 represents no value to me with this in mind

THEATRE MAN has already got some of ante post money at 10/1 and his chances will get a big boost if Ginnys Destiny (who beat him last time out) wins the opener. Harry Cobden is a great booking, but the value now seems to have been sucked out of his price a bit.

There is still a bit of juice in the odds of SHAKEM UP’HARRY though. He seemed to take his form up a level here on New Years Day and has done well to be raised only 3 pounds from that. He was only a pound lower when third in this race last year and is arguably a better horse now. With Harry Redknapp owning this one expect some scenes if he wins!

I have to give an honourable mention to a big outsider in STRAW FAN JACK. He has dropped to a very attractive mark after two lack-lustre runs recently. He’d probably prefer better ground but if Sheila Lewis has found an answer to his problems, I think he is very well in on his back form

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12345

*****

420 Mares Novices Hurdle

This could be one of the highlights of the meetings with 4 very classy looking young mares facing off.

DYSART ENOS and GOLDEN ACE head the home team. The former came out easily best in Aintree’s bumper last season. Golden Ace looks to have improved this season though with hurdles now brought in.

They have both been campaigned away from the top level this season to avoid getting a penalty for this race.

Consequently, these two will receive 5 pounds from the two Irish favourites.

Willie Mullins’s record in mares’ races speaks for itself and in any other year, JADE DE GRUGY, would be the natural favourite here. She has a strong reputation but the vibes from Gordon Elliott’s yard have been so strong for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. The ‘best horse he’s ever had’ has been mooted here – and that is from a stable that has had some very big stars of the past

Verdict. I find it hard to ignore the vibes for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. This is a bit like Fact to File yesterday, in that one side of me is saying that price is too short and should be laid, but the other side is telling me she could be very special. If any firm offered 4 places on this race I’d be tempted to take GOLDEN ACE. She’s looked very good herself but may be up against the impossible this time. There is huge difference between getting 3 or 4 places for your each-way bets on this race

NO BET

****

530 Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys Hcap

INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN heads the market here and does have the look of another McManus plot. He’s looked like he’s been held back a bit at times in an effort to get a decent mark here – and he does have about the best amateur jockey available in Derek O’Connor. His mark of 145 might be a tad generous compared to his hurdling form but not by that much. His price is too low for me given he has to shoulder top weight here and the trip is a complete unknown.

AMIRITE could be well in off 142 but seems to need much better ground. BOWTOGREATNESS could also win something decent off 133 but his best form seems to come on flat tracks.

WHEREITALLBEGAN would probably love a longer trip but on this soft ground – and a likely too quick pace in an amateur race – that could bring his stamina into play. He’s on a much higher mark than his last win but that was a very clear-cut victory. He is part of a good Gordon Elliott challenge here. FAKIR D’ALENE was 4^th in this race two years ago off a one-pound higher mark (four pounds if we count Rob James’s claim). His last two runs haven’t been inspiring, but the back form is definitely there

ANGELS DAWN won this last year but is on an 11-pound higher mark now and much more exposed than he was.

For the home team, I like RAPPER, who can be in an out, but has performed well at this course before. We can ignore his ‘pulled up’ effort in this race last year as he bled from the nose. A return to form was signaled last time out and he is now on a 4-pound lower mark than last season. He’s won twice off 137 before – is on 138 now but with Anthony O’Neill’s 3 pound claim he is effectively 135. Anthony doesn’t ride too often but being the son of Jonjo O’Neill, I don’t think we can question his pedigree for this!

VERDICT. With 6 places available with some firms, I’m backing three here. The first two should be in the form to be very competitive – the third needs to bounce back but I feel is a bit overpriced

RECOMMENDATIONS

1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN taking 12/1 or better with firms offering 6 places

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 or better with 6 places

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE taking 25/1 or better with 6 places

(5pts in total staked)

That’s a wrap for Day 3

Thanks for reading and best of luck with whatever you back

Paul

SUMMARY OF DAY 3 RECOMMENDATIONS

130 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY 5/1 (1/5 123)

410 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1(1/5 odds 12345)

530 1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 12/1 (1/5 odds 123456)

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 (1/5 odds 123456)

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE 25/1 (1/5 odds 123456)

Total staked on day 11 pts

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Posted by senormoodoir on March 13, 2024 in Uncategorized

Tags: betting, cheltenham-festival, Horse Racing, sports, tips

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