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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 4

13 Mar

Ground appears to be proper Good to Soft so far on Day 3 – there should be no excuses from anyone. I’m assuming we’ll have similar tomorrow in this analysis below

Onto the final day’s action:

Friday’s card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-14

Odds comparisons here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-14-cheltenham

1.20 JCB Triumph Hurdle

This feels like a Triumph Hurdle of yesteryear with 18 runners and some firms offering 4 places!

Before Tuesday’s 4yo handicap hurdle was added to this meeting in it often had big fields – and produced shock results. Class has generally come to the fore since.

Willie Mullins fields a staggering 11 runners – 3 of which have yet to face a hurdle in public.

I would hope having so many big outsiders doesn’t cause traffic problems but I think there will be a strong pace here which should soon sort out the wheat from the chaff.

I don’t think the form of the Irish runners here is quite as strong as the home side and this largely revolves around the two at the front of the market.

East India Dock (the younger brother of Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle second Burdett Road) was a decent staying type on the flat but has blossomed since going hurdling. I don’t think you will see a quicker and more efficient jumper in this field and he can gain lengths on his rivals in a quickly run race. He’s made the running himself thus far but the addition of stablemate Opec, who looks sure to take them along at a good clip, looks a very good move.

This will test the jumping of main rival Lulamba, who looks more of a chasing type going forward – albeit a very useful one.

East India Dock’s course form and his quick hurdling sways it for me and I think Lulamba will need to be out of the very top drawer to beat him whilst the ground is on the better side here.

It would be great to see the Gredley family finally rewarded with a Cheltenham winner here after all the effort they have been putting into National Hunt racing in the past couple of years. Previously, the family were very flat racing orientated (more seasoned followers will remember User Friendly winning the Oaks and the Arc de Triomphe)

I have had a little ante post interest on Mondo Man earlier this year before he ran his first hurdling race. He was a top class horse on the flat but is held by Lulamba on Ascot running.

He has spoilt his chances in both races by pulling too hard – he was quirky on the flat as well.

His price of around 33/1 does reflect his chance on hurdling form so far. However, the likely strong pace here, and the addition of Brian Hughes in the saddle, gives him his best chance to actually settle in a race.

If he does behave himself and Brian can switch him off, he has the class to be a factor. We’ll know soon into the race whether he has a chance or not.

Selection; Heart may be ruling head slightly here but I’m on the side of East India Dock. A general price of around 2/1 is about right whilst not offering excessive value. A more speculative punt would be Mondo Man if he can finally settle in a race

Recommendation

I can’t see East India Dock out of the first 4 here. He isn’t an each way price at 2/1 but as there is another in the 4.40 who I also can’t see out of the first 4 then an Each way double is recommended – see the 440 write up.

Also 0.5 pt win Mondo Man 33/1 or better

(don’t see the value in each way here – if he doesn’t settle I can’t see him being placed but if he does he has the talent to go close)

*****

2.00 County Handicap Hurdle

A handicap with at least 4 contenders who look to have been laid out for it.

Absurde did the ‘absurd’ by winning comfortably this from last place from a relative slow pace last year. He has plenty of class from the flat and is thoroughly capable of winning again but interesting that Paul Townend opts for Kargese instead from Team Mullins.

Kargese was 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle and is well handicapped off a mark of 141 on that form. She found disappointing little on her seasonal debut though and wouldn’t be winning this on that bare form. However, there may be a lot of improvement to come

I do think it’s a tough ask for 5 year olds like her to win this race and so that also applies to Lark In The Mornin. This one also looks to have been laid out for this race in the same way he was when easily winning on Tuesday’s card last year.

Then we have Valgrand, who represent the Dan Skelton team, who have been so good at providing the winners of this race with well-orchestrated plots in the past. He impressed with fast accurate jumping from the front earlier this season. Then he was held back in two later runs and that jumping prowess couldn’t be seen. The handicapper duly dropped him from 140 to 134 – something we have seen before in the Skelton plotting plan.

Hansard is also worth a mention off his mark of 142 given how well he ran against Champion Hurdle 1-2 Golden Ace and Burdett Road in his last run. Decent ground will suit him but I think a flatter track would be more of his metier

I can make a good case for too many in this race and no great value on any of them so it’s a No Bet race for me

*****

2.40 Mares Chase

Limerick Lace beat Dinoblue in this last year by getting first run and outstaying her on soft ground. The winner hasn’t been in the same form this year and I would expect Dinoblue to turn that form around on this occasion.

Allegorie de Vassy was behind them both last year and narrowly beaten by Dinoblue last time out. That would put her into the mix but she has run a bit below expectations now in 3 visits to this course and I don’t think it really suits here.

It’s also interesting that Keith Donoghue has chosen Brides Hill over Limerick Lace this year. Brides Hill had to be withdrawn from this race last year because of the soft ground. If she were to get her ideal Good ground she could be a proper threat to the favourite. You’d want to be checking the ground on race day here though…her chance lessens considerably if there is some soft in the ground.

*****

3.20 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (or ‘the Spud race’ as I affectionately call it)

This can be a really tough race for young novices over its longer trip. As such it is probably missing the highest grade novices who went for the shorter Turners Novices Hurdle on Wednesday. Take a look through the roll of honour in the past. You will see some later Gold Cup winners like Minella Indo and Bobs Worth. You’ll see just as many big priced winners who didn’t subsequently progress much further at all though.

If the pace is strong it can be a war of attrition that will favour the real sloggers in the race who haven’t been able to thrive in such conditions until now.

Team Mullins field six and stable jockey has plumped for Jasmin De Vaux, last years Festival Bumper winner. His hurdling career thus far has been highlighted by some quite dire jumping. He may well be the best of these on the gallops but he’ll need to really brush up his hurdling here or will be losing ground too regularly.

He’s also held by Wingmen on his last run. Gordon Elliott’s charge is unproven over this trip but most of them are to be fair here. I think his second at Leopardstown last time though is probably the best piece of form coming in.

Lucinda Russell has won this race before with the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze. She has compared Derryhassen Paddy quite favourably to that one and there was much to like about his recent Windsor win. The Russell team have already struck at this meeting with Myretown and are in good form. Their runner here is big long striding horse and I am a little worried that this course may not suit him – I thought Aintree might have been a better choice. Take note also that he was withdrawn from his prep race at Haydock as the ground was deemed not soft enough. He wouldn’t be a certain runner for me if there is no overnight easing in the ground.

Wendigo will be popular on the back of his second to The New Lion over Christmas – form that was well boosted on Wednesday. His second to Battle Born Lad earlier this season has also been well advertised since.

The Big Westerner is unbeaten and the likely favourite but is short enough for me considering her relative inexperience compared to others here

Team Mullins has won this race before with horses that weren’t the perceived first strings and I like two of his that I think will be ideally suited to the singular test of this race.

Sounds Victorius and Fishery Lane were 4th and 5th in last years Festival Bumper at big odds. Both came up the hill strongly and both look like they need a through test in my eyes. I don’t think either will have had their ideal conditions yet this season. Sounds Victorius was behind Wingman and Jasmin De Vaux at Leopardstown when he couldn’t match a change of pace from others near the home turn. He then stayed on into 5th up the hill.

Both will appreciate a well-run race here which I hope we will get with proven front runner Jax Junior in the field

Recommendations

0.5 pts ew Sounds Victorius 20/1 or better

0.5 pts ew Fishery Lane 20/1 or better

Take the 5 places with Skybet or Paddy Power if you can – otherwise 4 places is widely available elsewhere

*****

4.00 Gold Cup

The centrepiece event of the meeting sees Galopin Des Champs going for his third win. On paper it looks his easiest task so far but the price of around 4/7 reflects that.
If the ground was properly good then Banbridge can be a threat but he is totally unproven over this far around this course…it’s a world away from Kempton’s 3 miles where he won the King George.

If there is more rain and emphasis is more on stamina then Inothewayurthinkin would be of each way interest. He won a handicap here last year easily despite bad jumping. His last run behind Galopin showed better jumping and nothing was staying on stronger at the finish.

If he doesn’t get outpaced it crucial stages. He will come up the hill very strongly and is the only one I can see threatening the favourite…but it does need a strongly run race with some ‘soft’ in the ground for me to see this scenario happening

Selection; Galopin Des Champs is hard to oppose but he is too short a price to recommend. If ground is good to soft or worse, Inothewayurthinkin would be a likely each way play

****

4.40 Hunters Chase

As in previous years, I just don’t follow the point to point scene enough to usuallyhave any great opinion on this race. It’s another amateur riders race where having one of the better jockeys on board would be great advantage.

However, Angels Dawn who is a previous Festival winner with the same rider on board and I would imagine has been laid out for this race. He ticks too many boxes for me to ignore

Four places are offered and as long as he gets round I can’t see him not being placed

Recommendation

Each way double time here with firms who offer 4 places on this race and the 120

2pt ew Double –

East India Dock 2/1 or better 1.20; Angels Dawn 7/2 or better here

****

5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle

Gordon Elliott learn his trace under the tutelage of Martin Pipe and always has something aimed at it. Wodhooh will be popular on the back of her being unbeaten over hurdles and a course win in December that’s worked out very well. She was rewarded with an 11 pound hike to her mark for that and she was best placed to strike from the front in quite a slow race

She would be favourite here if not for the presence of French import Kopeck De Mee who has been massively touted in the run up to the Festival. His mark of 136 is very much a shot in the dark from the handicapper as his form is so hard to gauge. He has been backed though as if he is much better than what he has been given.

We’ve seen this in handicaps from the Mullins team before. They sometimes hose in but other times it hasn’t come off. To take a price of no more than 5/2 in such a competitive race you’d really want to be knowing exactly what the stable know here

The short prices on these two runners mean we should have inflated prices on the rest and with 6 places on offer from several firms, I’ll look more for some each way value.

There are three that take my eye.

Park of Kings has been progressive this season and may well have won last time out at Leopardstown if not being given too much to do. He has been kept off the course since then – probably with this race in mind and avoiding winter deep ground – and should appreciate the strong pace and uphill finish.

No Questions Asked was a very useful bumper horse this season who has improved from race to race over hurdles this year. The form of his Huntingdon second to Califet En Vol was a big leap forward and I think he has the class of a horse with more to offer off his mark of 138

Punctuation has been around a long time and was originally owned by the Queen and once fancied for the Derby! He can be quirky but he does have an engine that can be seen to some effect when the cards fall for him. He has good course form and likes a strongly run race. The Henderson record in handicap hurdles is at the forefront oy mind here and I think there is decent value in him at big odds

Recommendations

0.5 pts each way on each of these with firms offering 6 places with 1/5th odds

Park Of Kings 16/1 currently best price available

No Questions Asked 25/1 best available

Punctuation 50/1 quite widely available right now

That’s a wrap for this weeks action!

Thanks for reading once again. I hope my thoughts have been helpful to some during the week but whatever you have backed, I hope it’s been a profitable festival

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

11 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

The Festival got under way today with the ground looking to be good to soft in opening races – and with a drying afternoon it won’t get any worse. The chase course was riding a bit slower than the hurdles course according to Nico de Boinville after his ‘off the sofa’ ride in the Arkle.

A note on the weather for Wednesday morning. There seems to be a possibility of frost overnight and wintry showers on Wednesday morning. This should stop any possibility of the ground drying further and may make it more testing yet. A ground update from Cheltenham tomorrow morning is recommended https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/.

I’ll go through my thoughts below on assumption of it remaining Good to Soft.

****

Onto Day 2 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-12

1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle

6 of the 11 runners here are from the Mullins stable but Final Demand looks to be the clear number one. He was very impressive last time, albeit over a longer trip and comes here with a rating 5 pounds more than anything else. I do feel he is the one to beat but the shorter trip and the undulating course (can be more of an issue for bigger horses like him) are at the back of my mind. With stamina seemingly a forte and 4 stablemates to help out, I’m expecting a well-run race to avoid an ill-suiting sprint finish

The New Lion is unbeaten and was very impressive in winning the Challow Hurdle over Christmas (a race that a notoriously bad record for its winners coming here it has to be said). The form of that race doesn’t look quite so good to me now as it did then though – even though he did win easily. He is the big UK hope here representing the Dan Skelton stable

Back in 3rd in the Challow was Bill Joyce by 5.5 lengths. That horse then went to Cheltenham and was beaten 12 lengths by Sixmilebridge with Potters Charm separating them in 3rd.

Admittedly Sixmilebridge was receiving weight from both 2nd and 3rd that day but it still makes him a viable opponent here with proven course form.

Potters Charm was odds-on favourite that day and didn’t run up to expectations. Connections did seem to have an argument about running him and it might have been better if he didn’t. His previous form on this track was excellent and if he is 100% again (stable suggests he is), he is another real contender.

The Yellow Clay was fancied but only sixth in last year’s Champion Bumper. He has been solid in his hurdles this season. Similarly to Potters Charm, he doesn’t win his races flashily but grinds them out more. That’s a good quality for me when it comes to an uphill finish like this.

I’m struggling to see a case for anything outside of these 5 but Mullins 2nd or 3rd strings have run well before so if fancying any of those at a big price there is still some hope.

Again Skybet offer an extra fourth place here for each-ways but again their model has shortened the win odds compared to other firms to account for this

Selection: I think Final Demand is the likeliest winner – more so if the ground doesn’t dry up any more overnight. His price is a bit too short for me though at under 2/1. I see more value in the prices of Potters Charm and Sixmilebridge as each way selections. Betting both with 4 places at Skybet makes a bit more appeal here but you’d want to back them at SP and hope for better than their current prices here. That might well happen if the two favourites are well backed

No recommendations given the advice is very limited to one bookmaker and it’s not one I can get a bet on with myself for more than pennies!

****

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase

It’s sad to see the premier longer distance race for novice chasers has no UK trained runners this year. Also 4 of the 7 runners are from the Mullins stable.

Ballyburn is the obvious favourite. He isn’t proven over this trip but wasn’t stopping last time out. His jumping isn’t flawless but it’s no worse than stablemate Dancing City’s (may require softer ground to make it more a stamina test).

Last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Stellar Story, takes the prize for most awkward looking jumper in the field though. He looked like he was given a ride just to get round and improve his confidence last time or else he may have beaten his stablemate, Better Days Ahead.

If the ground did dry further then Gorgeous Tom could become more of a contender. He’s also unproven on the trip but looks like he may relish it.

Selection. I can’t really avoid Ballyburn here. His hurdling form is a good notch above these. Would I back him around Evens though in what may be his stiffest jumping test yet – unlikely!

*****

2.40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

I’ve been sweet on Beat the Bat for some time in this race. I wasn’t sure he would get in with his lower weight so was delighted to see him scrape in at number 24.

Harry Fry’s charge run in top two mile handicaps the last two occasions and been well supported in both. It’s been evident in both though that the trip was too short and I’m sure this longer trip is something he is crying out for. His last race at Newbury has often been a good guide for this race.

Ground is not an issue whichever way it goes overnight here

Given, Dan Skelton’s past prowess in doing long range plots for handicap hurdles here respect has to be given to Be Aware. The horse’s name is well found though as bookmakers are fully aware of his credentials in making him around 5/1.

Softer ground does seem a positive for him so any overnight changes are worth noting – he is just too short a price for me now.

Willie Mullins’ Bunting is currently sharing favouritism but the stable’s record in handicap hurdles is pretty dire if you look at my previous post on this subject. I note from www.gaultstats.com that he is 1 from 50 in this race since 2010

The Mullins stable also field Jimmy Du Seuil who has s standout piece of form from this meeting last year that he hasn’t matched since. If he did find himself in the groove back here he would be a contender.

Ballyadam was 2nd in this race last year from a mark of 147 (has today). He also ran well in the County Hurdle the previous year off. Good ground is probably what he wants and it’s easy to see him running well again but at the age of 10 now can he really improve to win off a higher mark than he has had to shoulder before.

Not every firm offering enhanced 6 places here as yet – which has been replicated moreso in other handicaps. It’s been noticeable that 5 places is often more prevalent this year and as such there is a bit less value in handicaps to be seen generally so far. In contrast, Skybet offer 8 places if you can get a bet on with them

Recommendation. Back Beat the Bat 1 pt each way at 14/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or better

****

3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Any regular devotees of my blog will know this is the time I put the kettle on and sit down to watch without getting involved in betting. A history of having jockeys taking the wrong course on this special course doesn’t help. This is the first year it has been a handicap which should make it more competitive. I still can’t help think it’s like going to Wimbledon but watching an Exhibition match played between old professionals and employing a few trick shots

With all that in mind I’ll pass on a selection and just wish anyone luck who has a bet on it!

****

4.00  Queen Mother Champion Chase

As long as we stick with a flat field of 8 runners here then each way options will give us 3 places. If one were to come out then it would go down to 2 places and make each way betting a bit less attractive.

Jonbon is unbeaten in this division this year and this looks like the opportunity for him to land his Festival win. He has been second twice here in the past and had to be withdrawn late last year when his stable had some huge issues with the form of their horses.

If it did get very soft ground it might make things harder but that looks unlikely.

One of Nico de Boinville’s main tasks will be to focus on not giving too much rope to the field’s obvious front runner, Solness.

Solness has been a revelation at Leopardstown this year when he has taken his form to a new level. He hasn’t been taken on for the lead much and connections would have been delighted when another pace option, Matata, was taken out of the race at the 5 day stage.

If he is let to roll along up front and get a decent lead, he could be dangerous (a previous run on this track wasn’t great) but I don’t think Jonbon will let him get away.

If the ground does soften up then I can envisage a better run from the 2022 champion Energumene. He is 11 years old now and firmly in the veteran stage. He was put in his place last time out by Jonbon but showed he still retains plenty of ability.

With Solness here to force the pace, and Jonbon likely to be ghosting him, I can envisage more of a hold up ride on Energumene here. This tactic worked well for him in 2022. I do think he needs some cut in the ground to have a real shot at Jonbon though

Selection; Jonbon has to be my pick on all form this year. At around 7/1 I I think Energumene would provide some each way value though – but only if the ground remains good to soft or deeper – and that there remain 8 runners. Therefore I’ll only be looking to bet him as we get closer to the race

*****

4.40 Grand Annual Challenge Cup

Another competitive handicap with last year’s winner, Unexpected Party, returning to try and retain his title of a 6 pound higher mark. The respect that bookmakers have for his trainer has again been reflected in his odds though I’d suspect Skelton may have hoped to get him lower than this mark if he could have done.

Jazzy Matty is also a previous Festival winner having triumphed in the Juveniles handicap hurdle in 2023.He is a novice here but looks to have been plotted up with a hurdle race preparation. Before then he’d gone close in a 4 runner novice chase – the form of which may be questionable as the race was very slowly run.

JPR One is the class horse of the race but has to carry 12 stone because of it and of the higher weights I prefer My Mate Mozzie, who finished one place in front of him in last year’s Arkle and is 5 pounds better off.

The likely strong pace here is likely to suit My Mate Mozzie’s hold up style. He’s a versatile horse who was placed at Royal Ascot on the flat last year but is equally effective over chases and hurdles at a high level.

He wouldn’t want to see lots of rain and I can also say the same for General Medrano who should also be suited by strong pace. He got to the front too soon at Doncaster last time but was massively impressive at Newbury earlier in the season. He’s never raced at Cheltenham before so there has to be a little question mark in my head as to if he will cope with the undulations. The price is big enough to mitigate those doubts though

Two selections here;

Recommendations

1pt ew My Mate Mozzie taking 7/1 or better with 5 places

0.5 pts ew General Medrano taking 20/1 or better

****

5.20 Champion Bumper

Another impossible race where to have any idea you would want some inside stable info – ideally from the Mullins stable with its 5 runners (a small entry from them this year!).

Copacabana’s place at the head of the market was cemented when JP McManus recently said it as his only bet coming into the meeting. An odd thing to say when he doesn’t own and recently paid plenty for Aqua Force in the same race.

Lots of horses here with impressive recent wins but we can’t be sure what they beat and how strong the form is.

Another race to sit out with no selection – but to watch carefully with a view to the future as it is a breeding ground for future good hurdlers and chasers

****

Overall, this looks a quieter betting day for me today but hopefully some food for thought is in there …for 5 of the races at least!

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 11, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

10 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

Welcome back to annual followers of my blog covering the 4 days of National Hunt racing’s Olympics!

I’ll try to work through all races again on a day-by-day basis highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself. Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.

My main social media activity now on horse racing is the Blue Sky app (bsky.app) where I’ll post any extra snippets I see during the week (@senormoodoir.bsky.social ). I have already added a few early ante post interests in there this year – some of which the prices have now dropped a good bit on – so the value on those may have disappeared by now.

I used to cover the statistical pointers that can often pick out winners but this is done so much better in recent years by www.gaultstats.com. It is Bryan Gault’s last year doing this invaluable resource and please remember to contribute to the cause he is doing it for if finding it useful.

There is a slightly different look to this year’s Festival with the placement of races and the removal of a couple of races to be replaced by new handicaps.

Centrepiece races have now been moved back to 4pm each day and are now the 5th race on the card. Great news for younger fans who may have been trapped in school and unable to watch – about 50 years too late for me though in that regard!

Ground conditions are always going to play a significant factor. Last year we had softer conditions but there has been less rain this year and some watering has been already done to try and ensure we get Good to Soft or even Good ground which so often the Festival begins with.

Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-11-cheltenham

*take note that Oddschecker has now started to charge for this service after they deem you to have used it too much – change to another browser if you can when that happens and you should be able to access again

***

Day 1 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-11. *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses

1.20 Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The traditional opener to the meeting is this year run in honour of 2023’s winning jockey, Michael O’Sullivan, who tragically died from a riding accident last month.

It would certainly be quite fitting if the same colours were to triumph again here with William Munny, a horse with a live each-way chance.

William Munny was one of the best bumper horses in Ireland last season but it wasn’t until his 3rd run over hurdles before he started to finally began to realise his hurdling potential with a very easy win at Punchestown. Prior to that he hadn’t settled in his races and was beaten 7 lengths by Workahead at Leopardstown. The two reoppose here but I wouldn’t take that form literally as the second looked a different article last time.

Romeo Coolio was similar level in bumpers to William Munny last year and has transitioned to hurdles very well this year.

These three are all contenders for the places for me though if Kopek Des Bordes can show the same form that blew away a decent field with ease at Leopardstown in February. One of six runners from the all-powerful Willie Mullins stable here, he is clearly their number one.

His hurdling debut showed some jumping flaws bu they did seem to have been ironed out next time. However he did show a possible weakness when getting very lit up in the preliminaries and looking like he might get out of control with jockey Paul Townend early on. I’m sure the stable would have worked on that since and a hood is applied for the first time here to help deal with the task he is going to face (Willam Munny also wearing the same first time headgear).

There is a real pressure cooker atmosphere for the first race as the crowd get revved up for the first race and there is a traditional roar. False starts are not uncommon in this race so it does present a test for the favourite.

In short I think, the biggest rival for Kopek Des Bordes could be himself. If the start goes fine and he settles he is going to take a lot of beating. If things don’t go so well then others have a chance.

At around Even money to win I can’t therefore support him.

In the past many firms have dangled a carrot in this opening race with extra places to give some value. Only Skybet have gone that far this year but in so doing are offering slightly lower prices than others so I’m still not getting too excited there (marginal preference for Romeo Coolio as the one who looks guaranteed to finish in the top 4 to me but not much between him, Workahead and William Munny)

I must also mention Tripoli Flyer who showed what an engine he has when winning the last twice easily despite some indifferent hurdling. His best form is all on decent ground (should get that) and on flat tracks (won’t get that). I thought Aintree in April would be far more suitable for him so a little surprised to see him running here. If he can cope with the track he is definitely dangerous. However, the fact his stable haven’t yet run him here , despite being almost next door to the track, suggests to me that it may not be ideal for him.

Selection: KOPEK DES BORDES (but not a betting proposition for me)

****

2.00 Arkle Challenge Trophy

I’ve already covered this in my earlier post regarding some early selections. Not much has changed except there are now only 5 runners and so there is no more each way with 3 places.

I think Majborough will win if he jumps round cleanly – but he is flamboyant at times and I can easily see him making a bad mistake at some point on this tricky course. If he does that would let the clean jumping course winner L’Eau Du Sud in as the most likely to profit.

Both horses have already beat Touch Me Not this season and should do so again. That one’s inclusion in the race is good though as he is a decent jumper who can put pressure on the favourite up front.

Jango Baie looks like he needs further and might be caught for pace at a crucial stage but should be running on late. Only By Night also looks likely to be held up and delivered late but I just don’t think her form is good enough to win.

Selection: I’ve already put up L’EAU DU SUD when each way 1/5 odds 123 was available. Place odds are less attractive now this has become less of a betting proposition. I still think he represents a little more value than the odds on favourite Majborough though

****

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase

Always a competitive handicap and one that has served me well over the years.

I’m find it very tricky this year though!

The Changing Man has done well to stay on a mark of 140 after a bloodless win last time (aided by all his rivals making errors). He has been a slow developer with his jumping technique but finally seems to have got his act together now. Whilst he has been consistent in decent handicaps this season he has been beaten in them off lower marks than here. The handicap record of his trainer Joe Tizzard (see my earlier post on trainer stats) is also disconcerting. He has a chance but I can see him placing again rather than winning – and also I think a smaller field may have suited him better.

Broadway Boy has a fine record on this course and runs here in preparation for the Grand National. That slightly puts me off here as you would imagine that connections have left some room for improvement with a bigger aim to come. He may prefer softer and for a front runner to win this off such a high weight would be quite some task.

I’ve always been drawn to lower weights carrying less than 11 stone in this race.

Katate Dori would immediately therefore be on the shortlist after an impressive win last time that sees his mark increase by 12 pounds here. He may well still be ahead of the handicapper.

Lucinda Russell has won race before and has both Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown in the right weight zone. The former has stable jockey Derek Fox on board and appears to be the number one (if there is a jockey switch take note). He had a nice sighter of these fences over an inadequate trip last time. Additionally, Whistle Stop Tour would appear to appreciate the drying conditions while Myretown may prefer softer.

Marginal preference though is for Irish challenger, The Short Go who had Broadway Boy behind him here earlier in the season (latter beaten 11 lengths and  is only 5 pounds better of). He obviously doesn’t cope with deep winter ground and the forecast conditions here must be in his favour. With Rachel Blackmore on board, he might well be a popular pick on the day. Expect to see a hold up ride with him being smuggled into the race late on.

I also can’t leave an old friend, Straw Fan Jack, completely alone at huge odds. His form has been indifferent this year but there were signs of a revival last time and he’s now on a 6 pound lower mark than when 3rd at the Festival last year (Reopposing Crebilly just ahead but worse off here yet a much shorter price). His jumping can be erratic but his form at Cheltenham overall isn’t bad. The trip is a slight question mark but he is a huge price to make up for that

Selections: Not a race for risking too much on but I’m interested in The Short Go at around 14/1 each way with firms offering 6 places. Also a speculative little each way on Straw Fan Jack at 50/1 or bigger

Recommendations

1pt ew The Short Go

0.5 pts ew Straw Fan Jack

3.20 Mares Hurdle

The complexion of this race changed enormously at the final declaration stage when last year’s winner, Lossiemouth, was declared rather than the Champion Hurdle.

Her form should be on a different level to the rest but she did suffer a nasty fall last time. She should win, but there is always going to be a slight seed of doubt about whether she is fully 100% given she sidestepped the bigger prize.

With her being odds-on favourite it’s also killed any hope of being offered an extra place on the race.

It’s possible to give place chance to nearly all the rest but I’m most drawn to Queens Gamble given she has such good past course form and will like the better ground.

A plot to take a big handicap at Leopardstown in February was scuppered by softer conditions and a bruised knee during the race (also not Blackmore’s finest of rides).

I think she’ll benefit form a longer trip here and can see her running well.

She probably won’t beat the favourite if on song but many firms offer ‘betting without the favourite’ and that option becomes more interesting in this circumstance.

Selection: QUEENS GAMBLE each way in the ‘Betting without Lossiemouth’ market at hopefully 16/1 or better

Recommendation: 1pt ew Queens Gamble – in betting without Lossiemouth market

*****

4.00 Champion Hurdle

I’ll cut to the chase here for Tuesday’s premier race.

Constitution Hill is probably the best hurdler I have seen since Golden Cygnet in the mid 1970s when I first started watching this sport.

Unless something is ailing him, and I can’t imagine he would be here if his trainer didn’t think he was 100% , then I struggle to see him getting beaten. If anything, my biggest worry would be the final hurdle. He didn’t met it right in his last run and when last wining this race he jumped way too early after seeing a shadow on it

Brighterdaysahead is a fine mare and its great to see here in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. Her pacemaker, King of Kingsfield, should make this race a true test. They employed similar tactics to hand out a thrashing to the 2024 Champion Hurdler, State Man, over the Christmas period.

That tactic should be enough to derail any hopes for State Man again, but if anything it will be help for Constitution Hill. The favourite’s most impressive career win in the Supreme Novices Hurdle came on the back of a breakneck pace also.

Burdett Road likes to force the pace also so might also find himself on the backfoot on the uphill home straight.

I put up Golden Ace as a value each way proposition on Blue Sky at 100/1 at the beginning of the year. I thought I had done my money on that as she looked likely to be in the Mares Hurdle but a late change of mind was very welcome.

I can see here being ridden for a place here (will add plenty of value to her as a broodmare) and am hopeful she can take advantage of others being broken by the favourite.

There is no more 100/1 though and no more 3 place options for each way so the value on her has largely gone

Selection; CONSTITUTION HILL – but at no more than 8/13 there aren’t too many rich pickings to be gained here

***

4.40 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Another race where I was active on Blue Sky a few weeks ago to suggest Hot Fuss at 33/1 after an unconventional prep run at Southwell.

I think he ran in one of the best juvenile races in the UK this season when putting it up to current Triumph Hurdle favourite, East India Dock, at Wincanton. He was a little disappointing in deep ground at Chepstow over Christmas but that has meant he has a nice low mark of 122 here. His Southwell win wouldn’t have affected his mark but it showed an improved performance sporting a first time visor.

Connections now use first time blinkers and I think he’s very much one to keep on the right side of whilst he has an attractive mark.

Chief danger is another of East India Dock’s victims this year, French raider Stencil. Stencil was the only one to keep with his conqueror’s strong pace last time and only gave way in the closing stages after travelling noticeably well. He is the likely favourite here but I don’t think his mark of 135 is unduly harsh – and the pace of this race will suit.

James Reveley has been saying is preview evenings recently that his mount is better than a handicapper and I tend to agree.

Far less attractive is well supported Irish raider, Total Look, who I think may almost get the prize of worst handicapped horse in the race. His UK mark of 132 is 9 pounds higher than his current Irish mark of 123. Additionally, he was beaten by both Quantock Hills and Teriferma at this track in December when receiving weight from both. Now he has to give them both 6 pounds. Cheekpieces may be on for the first time and his trainer is a shrewd operator – but if this wins there should be a stewards enquiry for some explanations!

I’m largely in the mind that Irish juvenile hurdlers this season are coming into this a little bit too harshly handicapped. It must be noted though that Joseph O’Brien won this last year with another horse who didn’t look that well in but had been prepared especially for the race. Take note then for any strong money on the day for Puturhandstogether or Beyond Your Dreams (not least because they are both owned by prolific punter JP McManus)

Selections:

STENCIL Each way taking 11/2 or better – some firms offering 6 places but not all

HOT FUSS 12/1 each way – the really nice prices have already gone unfortunately

Recommendations

2pts ew Stencil

1pt ew Hot Fuss

*****

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap

A big change to this long distance novices race this year. For the first time it is now a handicap and is no longer the domain of amateur riders. A ceiling for horse with marks no more than 145 also restricts the upper echelon of novice chasers from taking part. A bit of early planning from some stables would have been needed.

As there is no previous running there are no previous stats to work from either.

Another race I’ve already covered to some degree when offering up Haiti Couleurs in my Early Ante Post selections post.

I’m still strongly in his favour. Connections think highly enough of him to think they could have run him in the Turners Novice Chase tomorrow – a non-handicap novices championship race – but his handicap mark of 135 meant this race was always going to be more ttractive.

He has purposefully been given a small break since his immaculate round of jumping to secure a course win here in December. A hurdles run last month which would not affect his chase mark was more than satisfactory and his trainer has a great strike rate at the Festival from not too many past runners

That Cheltenham piece of form is the key to this race I think and also throws up his biggest danger, Transmission. Neil Mulholland’s charge is reunited with Patrick Mullins here and is 4 pounds better off for just over 2 lengths. He has also had a recent run over hurdles to protect his chase mark and promises to be suited by a longer trip.

The prevailing ground shouldn’t be a barrier to either horse and I think they are the two best handicapped horses in this race on this years form.

Gericault Roque is also well handicapped on past Festival form but he has only run once this year after a long lay-off since 2022. There is always a chance of a dip back in form after such a break but he still can’t be totally discounted.

Again we have a short priced Gavin Cromwell runner here, Now Is the Hour, where I simply don’t get the shortened odds. He has undoubtedly not been showing all his card this year to try and get a slimmer mark but 139 has a bit bigger waistline that they would have hoped for. His stand out piece of form comes from very deep ground at Haydock. That’s a specialist track when the ground is deep and it’s like chalk and cheese compared to this course with drier conditions

Selections: HAITI COULEURS 4/1 and TRANSMISSION 11/2 (currently best prices with all firms seeming offering 5 places rather than 6)

Recommendations:

2pts ew Haiti Couleurs

1.5 pts ew Transmission

****

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,

Paul

(I will be posting my thoughts for Wednesday’s card late tomorrow afternoon after scrutinising early results)

Already recommended on previous blog post L’Eau Du Sud 2.40 and Haiti Couleurs 5.20

Already recommended on previous BSky posts – Golden Ace e/w 100/1 4.00; Hot Fuss 33/1 4.40

(Note I have also also recommended Beat the Bat in Wednesday’s Coral Cup at 25/1 on BSky who was also confirmed for the race today and I’ll cover again tomorrow)

 
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Posted by on March 10, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham 2024 – Day 4

14 Mar

Onto the final day’s action 

As I write with 3 races complete on Day 3, the ground appears to be improving a little and is now Soft rather than Heavy. If we get no rain in the next 24 hours, then it could be decent conditions tomorrow. There is currently some rain forecast overnight though. A check of conditions tomorrow morning will influence the strength of some of my picks below. For now, I’m assuming it will be the same as today 

A nice winner on the blog on day 3 with Shakemupharry means recommended bets are now showing a 10.7 pt profit this week from 32 pt staked (including places from Ginnys Destiny and Where It All Began). Golden Ace not recommended but favourably mentioned. Hopefully some latched onto her as well.

A proper JP McManus plot came to fruition in the last with Inothewayurthinking winning easily and justifying a fairly ridiculous looking price of 13/8 in a 22 runner handicap.

A good day for the UK side otherwise with 5 winners from the 7 races

*******

130 Triumph Hurdle 

Sadly, the problems with the Henderson stable meant that ante post favourite Sir Gino was taken out of this race today. At least we got to know the news early so markets could be adjusted in good time 

It’s hard not to see an Irish success with only heavy ground loving SALVER seemingly having any chance for the home side. It’s impossible to equate his form against the Irish but I would suspect he hasn’t beaten too much of note as yet – even if he hasn’t been pushed to do so. 

Most of the Irish runners have been running against each other this season and their form is closely tied. There is no standout contender amongst them. KARGESE came out best at Leopardstown last time but given that was MAJBOROUGH’s first run since leaving France, it would be no surprise to see him improve enough to turn the table. 

NURBURGRING didn’t run there but was only a nose behind KARGESE in his last run. He’s a classy flat staying performer and I feel wasn’t suited at all by the slow pace that day. A stronger gallop here looks to be ideal for him. I like he’s been given a break to freshen up for this and with the stable already winning one juvenile hurdle at this meeting he’s my favoured option. 

SALVATOR MUNDI hasn’t run since April last year when just beaten by Sir Gino in France. That form reads very well now but his preparation has been held up and he was forced to miss the big Leopardstown trial. Coming here on his first run for Mullins is pitching in very deep very quickly. Jockey booking doesn’t suggest he’s the main hope of the Mullins stable either. I suspect he’s more of a project now to keep his maiden status here with novice hurdling in mind next season. 

VERDICT. With the ground not quite as deep as it was, I think the useful flat performer Nurburgring will be favoured most and with some firms offering 4 places will do for me. 

RECOMMENDATION: 1.5 pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (with firms offering 1/5 odds 1234) 

*****

210 County Hcap Hurdle 

Dan Skelton has already been in terrific form at this Festival, and this is the race in which he has always excelled. Both L’EAU DU SUD and last year’s winner FAIVOIR therefore have to be prime contenders here. Both ran very well when they were in 2nd and 5th place in Newbury’s Tote Gold Trophy. FAIVOIR has done that form no harm since. He still remains on a good mark here while L’EAU DU SUD was raised 6 pounds since Newbury. Oddsmakers are well aware of the Skelton record here though so don’t expect generous pricing 

KING OF KINGSFIELD had ABSURDE behind him when both were some way behind the two principles in a hot novice event last time. However, that was behind two horses who have won here since this week. His mark of 140 certainly looks very generous now. I just wonder if he wants better ground, but his class could still see him through 

It’s last year’s race where I go to find an outsider who I think could run well here. It’s always a tough ask for 5-year-olds to do well in handicap hurdles but PETIT TONNERRE didn’t do badly at all to be 6 lengths behind FAIVOIR and the second PIED PIPER. He’s had an interesting time over chases this season where I often got the feeling his mark was being looked after. He reverts to hurdles here and connections have reached for a first-time visor. Six is a much better age for this race and his mark is now 4 pounds lower 

VERDICT. I think a few at the top of the market are just a bit too short so am going for a bit of value with all the extra places being offered 

RECOMMENDATION 0.5 pts ew PETIT TONNERRE (look for 25/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or more) 

*****

250 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 

Soft ground for this longer distance novice event can often throw some surprise winners. It’s sometimes the experience and hardened types who can get their moment in the sun. 

I think there is no more promising novice in the UK than GIDLEIGH PARK, but I do worry if 3 miles in soft ground at this stage of his development could be too much. If he were mine, I’d rather they skipped this race and saved him for Aintree if being honest 

He’s much more attractively priced than READINTOMMYWRONG who also promises to improve again over this trip but is unproven. The price here is no doubt influenced by the power of his stable in the novices department

VERDICT. I’m a big fan of GIDLEIGH PARK and wouldn’t want to back against him. I’d rather back win only here as it’s the type of race I could see many runners being looked after for the future if the test appears to be too much for them 

RECOMMENDATION 

1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK taking 13/2 or better 

*****

330 Cheltenham Gold Cup 

The premier race of the meeting sees rivalry ensued by last year’s impressive winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and FASTORSLOW. They have never met on this course but since have met 3 times and the score is currently 2-1 to FASTORSLOW. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has won the latest duel coming out victorious by 4 lengths 

I can’t really envisage a winner coming outside of these 2. Last year’s Grand National winner CORACH RAMBLER would be dangerous if within spitting distance with half a mile to go but I fear he may get himself too far detached. 

The state of the ground will have some bearing here. The softer it is favours GALOPIN DES CHAMPS but if it dries some more, it gets closer. It’s been noticeable that FASTORSLOW has gained more lengths while jumping than his rival in all their meetings. 

Also worth noting that FASTORSLOW had wind surgery straight after his last run. 

VERDICT. It is the pricing that dictates matter for me here. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is around Evens while FASTORSLOW is around 5/1. I think the former remains the likeliest winner but don’t see the gap between them being as big as odds suggest. I also struggle to see FASTORSLOW out of the frame and with many firms offering an enhanced four places that has to be the value play for me . Mullins Gold Cup winners tend to have come here when they have had a light and easy preparation. This year things haven’t been always so smooth in th warm up to make me think the favourite is a certainty

RECOMMENDATION; 2pts ew FASTORSLOW 5/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

*****

410 Foxhunters Chase 

I’ve never been an expert on the point to point/hunter chase realm so will have to take a pass on it here. The only vibe I really get is that FERNS LOCK would have stamina issues on this trip/ground 

NO BET 

*****

450 Mares Chase 

DINOBLUE’s form is clearly the best here but it all comes at 2 miles. Over an extra half mile on soft ground there has to be a question mark that I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking 11/10 to find out the answer. 

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from BRIDES HILL this season and apparently no horse works better in Gavin Cromwell’s yard. The ground is her issue. I would have no hesitation in backing her here on good to soft or better, but this may be too soft? 

Stablemate LIMERICK LACE will have no such ground issues. She really wants a longer trip but will expose any stamina frailties in rivals. It’s interesting that Keith Donoghue seemed to be certainly riding Brides Hill a week ago but has switched to her. 

ALLEGORIE DE VASSY was second last year but is a quirky mare who definitely has two ways of running. She’s capable of winning but not reliable. 

VERDICT. Not a race for me to get involved with until I’ve seen what the ground is like mid afternoon tomorrow. I do favour the two Cromwell mares’ chances at the prices. If the ground appears to be drying, I’d be with BRIDES HILL. If it remains testing, then I’d favour LIMERICK LACE. But for now……NO BET 

*****

530 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle 

The final race is often full of budding talent that could be beyond the grip of the handicapper. It’s not that long since Galopin Des Champs first advertised his talent in this. 

The market certainly expects QUAI DE BOURBON and WATERFORD WHISPERS to be two such types. Prices of 3/1 and 4/1 in a competitive 23 runner handicap don’t get me jumping in the air with excitement though. WATERFORD WHISPERS’s form is closely tied with ANSWER TO KAYF who is double the price. 

I like the fact that ANSWER TO KAYF has been ridden regularly by the same conditional rider who accompanies him here. I’d just feel a bit happier if John Shinnick had some previous experience on this course. 

A mention also has to be given to OCASTLE DES MOTTES who was a warm favourite for the Tote Gold Trophy but lost his chance when getting upset at the start. He retains a mark that looks generous on his previous French form 

NO ORDINARY JOE was second in this last year off only a 1-pound lower mark. He looked to be being set up for the race again but as he comes from the troubled Henderson stable it’s impossible to be sure if he’ll be 100% here 

VERDICT: I slightly favour ANSWER TO KAYF but am struggling to see any great value in odds available right now’ A couple of firms offering 9/1 on him right now is close to a recommendation for small stakes. I’d ideally like to see him slip out to a double figure price tomorrow to get involved 

NO BET 

****

That’s all for Day 4 and for this year’s Cheltenham Festival 

Hope you have enjoyed reading today and throughout the week 

Paul 

SUMMARY OF DAY 4 RECOMMENDATIONS 

130 1.5pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

210 0.5pts ew PETIT TONNERRE 25/1 (taking 1/5odds 123456) 

250 1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK 13/2 

330 2pts EW FASTORSLOW 5/1 (take 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

TOTAL STAKED 9.5 PTS 

 
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Posted by on March 14, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival Day 2 – 2024

12 Mar

The second day of the Cheltenham Festival has somehow acquired the moniker of ‘Style Wednesday’. Whilst not attending the meeting I’ll have to remember to don my smoking jacket and cravat now for tomorrow’s fare! If you are going – and the weather is the same as on Tuesday morning – the ‘style’ decision maybe what colour Hunter wellies to wear. 

A quick resume of Tuesday’s action first: 

The stable form of Nicky Henderson was given no boost at all by Jeriko Du Reponet pulling up in the opener. Luccia did run well in the Champion Hurdle but Iberico Lord and Maries Rock also underperformed badly. 

More rain than was expected contributed to some very testing heavy ground.  It’s been dry during today and with little rain on the forecast tomorrow it may slip back to Soft going. There is an inspection at 8am for the Cross Country course which was waterlogged today. That will only affect the 410 race but if that does get cancelled we may get some time changes on the remainder of the card 

A great start to the meeting for this blog with Slade Steel winning the opener. Unfortunately couldn’t add any more but The Goffer (ground too heavy for him I ear) and Milan Tino crept into advised places. That ends up with a 3.3 pt profit on the days recommendations.

Tomorrow isn’t as appealing generally on the betting front for me but my thoughts with a few recommendations below

*****

130 Gallaghers Novices Hurdle 

Not the most competitive look to the opener with the Willie Mullins stable fielding 5 of the 8 runners – including the first 3 in the betting. 

BALLYBURN has had the appearance of being a banker in whichever race he ran here in for a while. The victory of his latest victim, Slade Steel, in Tuesday’s opener has cemented this even more. Stamina and ground don’t look to be in question so it’s hard to see any other winner now. 

If the UK side do have a surprise up their sleeve it should be HANDSTANDS. Ben Pauling knows what it takes to win this race after Willoughby Court in 2017.  This one is full of potential and unbeaten in four races – albeit at a lower level. He is being chucked in at the deep end now but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him run well. (Pauling had no issues about the deep ground for Handstands today when asked on Racing TV) 

VERDICT 

Ballyburn should win but the price is too short for me to recommend. I admit to a small each way bet ante post on Handstands at 16/1 but that guarantees 3 places. Here would need the 8 runners all to start to get that and I think the task ahead of him increased after todays action 

NO BET 

*****

210 Brown Advisory Novices Chase 

Another small field with only six here. FACT TO FILE has been the subject of glowing reviews from his stable and in preview evenings coming into this. ‘The next Gold Cup winner’ is a general vibe. I’d normally like to take his profile on given he has beaten very few horses in small fields. However, he did so in some very good times. I the combination of trip and ground isn’t an issue for him I’m inclined to think there may be something behind the hype here. At around EVS I wouldn’t want to bet him, but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either. 

He appeared to break the will of his only rival Gaelic Warrior last time. That one did no harm to the form though on Tuesday! 

STAY AWAY FAY won the 3-mile novice hurdle here last season and we can expect him to try and make this a test to exploit any stamina chinks. I think his connections may have preferred a bigger field though where he wouldn’t have to do all the donkey work himself. 

MONTYS STAR looks a similar staying type to Stay Away Fay but wrapped up in a larger form. He didnt perform well on the course last year – that’s a negative but his stable have been performing well on day one

SANDOR CLEGANE was a bit unlucky behind Stay Away Fay here last season and at the start of the season was of interest to me for this race. He hasn’t looked like the most natural chaser so far though. His run last time looked to be a confidence boosting one to get him round safely. If he can jump quicker, I can see him running well at a price. But this isn’t the track or level of race to be on learning on 

VERDICT 

Another race that doesn’t entice me in to bet. Fact to File is my idea of the winner but again I don’t see enough value in the price to get involved 

NO BET 

****

250 Coral Cup 

Some disappointment for me now coming into this competitive handicap. I had DODDIETHEGREAT and LUCKY PLACE marked down as my early picks. They are both trained by Nicky Henderson though and after day 1, the stable form there remains a major concern. 

The form of Doddiethegreat’s last run has been hugely boosted since and he looked like the step up in trip here would suit him greatly. 

Lucky Place’s latest course run against a very talented rival in Gidleigh Park was form that surpassed his mark of 137 in my view. The softer ground here would be a small question mark 

They would have both been a recommendation but for the elephant in the room that now exists! 

SA MAJESTE looks like a typical well hyped but underpriced Willie Mullins runner in a handicap. He’s fairly impossible to handicap, is very inexperienced and could be ten pounds well in or ten pounds badly in. As my post from last week suggests, following Mullins in handicaps isn’t the road to riches. 

BUILT BY BALLYMORE is much more one to be wary of. The market isn’t taking any chances here though. Trainer Martin Brassil is possibly the most underrated trainer in Ireland and had two close seconds in handicaps at last year’s Festival. Again, it’s hard to handicap him properly but the team behind is much more one to fear in this kind of scenario in my mind 

I’ve backed BALLYADAM at the Festival before but feel better ground will suit him 

LANGER DAN won this race off the same mark last year and having performed so well at this time of the year before has to be on the shortlist. Again, I’m not sure if the ground might be riding a bit too deep for him though 

MIGHT I will have no problems with the ground and ran well at the Festival last year off a higher mark. He’s spent this season chasing so far – and not very successfully. If that hasn’t taken its toll and Harry Fry has managed to get him back to his best, he would be a big runner here 

VERDICT: I thought I had this race cornered but the huge issue of Henderson stable form has prevented me getting involved at this stage 

NO BET 

*****

330 Queen Mother Champion Chase 

A few weeks ago, this looked like a two-horse race with EL FABIOLO and JONBON renewing rivalry. El Fabiolo was much the best in the Arkle last year and remains unbeaten in 6 chase races. Interest has been boosted though by a renaissance of form from 2022 Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE.  

Alan King’s runner had been comfortable held by Jonbon twice this season when given hold up rides. However, he was allowed to bowl along up front last time and put in an exemplary round of precision jumping to win easily at Newbury. 

This race now revolves around Edwardstone being given free rein up front once more. If he performs like he did at Newbury his superior jumping could take others out of their comfort zone. Both El Fabiolo and Jonbon can make mistakes (the latter appears to be getting worse and was even seen belting a fence in schooling on YouTube recently). 

If he can get in such a rhythm and unsettle the others, it’s then a question of him having enough in the tank to last home in soft ground. 

I think El Fabiolo is still the most likely winner here, but I wouldn’t be touching him at short odds. 

I can easily see Edwardstone bettering Jonbon this time though. 

CAPTAIN GUINNESS was second in this last year and could also benefit if ridden quietly behind the principals and pick rivals off late. He was a sick horse at Christmas and was patently looked after in an encouraging reappearance at Leopardstown in February. I’m not sure he’d have wanted all the rain that came early this week though. Some drying ground and I can see him placing again

The presence of another front runner in GENTLEMAN DU MEE and prominent racer ELIXIR DE NUTZ should ensure this race is run at a good clip. There should be no hiding places for any of them here 

VERDICT. Whilst thinking El Fabiolo might well win I see more value in supporting Edwardstone each way. I can’t imagine they won’t employ the same tactics as suited him so well last time. I’d also like him in the Betting Without favourite market 

Recommendation 

1pt ew EDWARDSTONE – generally available 15/2 (as there are 8 runners 3 places will be paid. If there is a non-runner this may revert to 2 places but always worth checking if some firms offer the more advantageous 3 places) 

*****

410 Cross Country Chase 

However soft/heavy the regular track is, the cross-country course is reported to be worse. I’ve been no fan of this style of race for betting for many years and will happily pass again. It seems to have developed into a race for Gold Cup veterans these days 

A fairly categoric (as usual in this race) NO BET 

****

450 Grand Annual Hcap Chase 

This race was always a regular target for Nicky Henderson as it is run in honour of his father. We don’t need to worry about stable form this time as he doesn’t have a runner this year. 

The market seems to think SAINT ROI has been laid out for the race, but I couldn’t touch him given the abysmal jumping he displayed at Leopardstown last time veering violently to the right at times. 

HARPERS BROOK is extremely quirky but has found a niche for his talents at two miles this season. He carries a health warning though as he is prone to stop when in front. If he is 10 lengths clear at last don’t assume he has it in the bag. If you back him a lay bet on Betfair Exchange at short odds is strongly encouraged for some insurance. 

PATH D’OROUX is an interesting contender from a stable that knows how to plot for race like this. He will like the ground but is his jumping good enough? 

LIBBERTY HUNTER is the progressive novice in the pack that often does well in this race but has to defy a large rise from the handicapper. MADARA is also on an upward curve but 13 pounds higher than his last win at this track. 

TRIPLE TRADE caught Harpers Brook on the run in at Ascot earlier in the season and reopposes on the same terms. However, he is a much larger price as his latest run at Lingfield was disappointing. That looked to be bad to be true. He has looked to be suited by the uphill finish here before. The ground is a slight question mark but as he’s won on heavy earlier in his career. The Tizzard team may not have the best record in handicaps here but they were in good form over the weekend 

VERDICT; I’m willing to give Triple Trade a chance to get his progression back on track here given the odds available 

Recommendation:  

0.5 pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (generally available with 1/5 odds 12345 – 6 places in one place) 

*****

530 Champion Bumper 

Another specialist race with no jumping involved. It’s a nursery in essence for next year’s hurdling novice hurdle events. Willie Mullins traditionally has a great record and has won 4 of the last 6 runnings. That’s not surprising though given he many runners he normally fields. This year he fields 9 of the 24 runners. 

If jockey bookings are a sign, then his favoured would be JASMIN DE VAUX (Patrick Mullins) and CANTICO (Paul Townend). 

That doesn’t always go to plan here though and he has won with bigger priced runners as well. 

My eye is mainly drawn to C’EST TA CHANCE who was the subject of positive reports before Christmas. He was narrowly beaten by William Munny is his only start but after that one looked really special on his next start; the form doesn’t look bad at all. 

THE YELLOW CLAY from Gordon Elliott’s stable was the eyecatcher in the main trial race for this at Leopardstown in February. I’m just a little concerned that stable jockey jack Kennedy has chosen JALON D’OUDAIRES instead. 

Verdict: Not a race to go wild on with stakes but I’m willing to take a chance on C’est Ta Chance at decent odds 

Recommendation 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 16/1 or better (take with firms offering 1/5 odds 12345 if possible) 

Thanks for reading once more and good luck 

Paul 

WEDNESDAY RECOMMENDATIONS 

330 1pt ew EDWARDSTONE 15/2  

450 0.5pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (taking 1/5 odds 123) 

530 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 161 (taking 1/5 odds 123) 

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham 2017 – Champion Hurdle Day

13 Mar
Cheltenham 2017 – Champion Hurdle Day

Another Cheltenham Festival is upon us and has there ever been one with so many high-profile casualties dropping out of important races in the run up to it!

The going is currently good to soft but with drying conditions still likely we could be in for a good ground week. With so much immediate form on softer conditions this winter we could see a few surfacing this week who improve a lot for these conditions

Onto a run down of day 1:

Unfortunately two of my main fancies for today, Movewiththetimes in the opener and Value At Risk in the finale have joined the casualty list in the last 24 hours.

It’s made this a bit less of a betting day for me but will try to narrow down the principals a bit from what we have left

*****(Tuesday morning update added at end of each race where applicable)*****

*******

1.30 Skybet Supreme Novice Hurdle 2 miles

Odds available here:http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2017-03-14-cheltenham/13:30/winner

Odds are headed here by Irish raider Melon representing the Willie Mullins team (successful in 2 of the last 3 runnings). Melon has only been seen once on the racecourse this season with an easy win in a fairly ordinary event at Leopardstown. That at least proved he is alive after so much speculation about his ability for months preceding the race. He looked fairly babyish in the paddock to me but did the job well. I do wonder with his inexperience how he will cope with the huge crowd and preliminaries here. He could win but his price is priced on what stable he is from and on home reputation – it is nothing to do with form and there is no value in his odds.

Mullins also has Bunk Off Early who has been mixing it in better company. He looked all over the winner last time before being outstayed by Neptune fancy Bacardys over a slightly longer trip. It’s quite astonishing to see his sire Zebedee have a runner here as he was a precocious 2yo sprinter. There have to be some question marks on breeding therefore about how he will stay on up the hill here. I can see him tanking along into the home turn but wonder if something else will finish off the race better.

Crack Mome also appears for  the Mullins squad. Another with a big reputation earlier this season, he has something to find on what he has achieved so far but could improve for the better ground

Ballyandy boasts the strongest piece of form here in winning the Tote Gold Trophy where he seemed to flourish for a strong gallop. He should get that here. There have been some rumours coming into Cheltenham about the general well-being of his stable but a big priced winner on Friday seemed to scotch that a little. He is a previous winner here having won last seasons Champion Bumper – the double has been achieved before

High Bridge was 6th in the Bumper beaten just over 4 lengths. He’s unbeaten over hurdles this season where his rider amateur Alex Ferguson was able to claim his 7lbs allowance. He can’t claim that tomorrow and that has to be a big negative to his chances – I would have had him as the value bet in the race if he had an experienced jockey on board.

River Wylde showed his liking for decent ground at Kempton last time but is 3lbs worse off with the second Elgin here. I’m not sure if the difference between the two in form merits the difference in odds between them here. The latter found Neon Wolf much too good previously at Haydock but that one would have been favourite if he turned up here

Lastly a quick mention for Labaik. He has talent but is highly quirky and would be odds-on to plant his feet at the start and not run at all based on his recent visits to the racetrack!

Conclusions:

Ballyandy is the most solid pick for me and hard to see him out of the frame. Elgin appeals of the big prices as one who could run into the frame but at current odds I won’t be getting very heavily involved in this race

*****

Tuesday Morning Update

Doesn’t seem to be too many big moves int the market here. Just a small ew play for me when 33/1 Elgin appeared with 1/4 odds a place

2.10 Racing Post Arkle Trophy 2 miles

Odds available here:http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2017-03-14-cheltenham/14:10/winner

Altior stands head and shoulders above these on form and it’s very hard to see him getting beaten as long as he completes. He’s looked fairly proficient in his jumping this season and the only thing I could see threatening him would be a slow tactical pace. (His least impressive win over hurdles came in such an affair at this course)

altior2

I wouldn’t be surprised if Nico de Boinville controlled the pace from the front to deal with that as he did last time at Newbury.

Of his rivals, Charbel was the highest rated over hurdles of the rest and looks the main challenger here. He could make the pace also but I’m sure connections don’t want to make him the sacrificial lamb in this race either. Taking on Altior too much could cost him dear if he does.

As long as David Bass plays it sensibly he would be my choice to follow the favourite home. There are a few in the race who might have already decided to ride for a place here

Selection (unsurprisingly) is Altior (far too low in odds to tempt me to bet though!)

2.50 Ultima Hcap Chase

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2017-03-14-cheltenham/14:50/winner

Quite a big race for stats in the past here. Novices have perfomed quite well and the higher weight have been at a disadvantage.

The Druids Nephew has slipped back to the same mark that he won this race impressively off in 2015. He has to be a player on that basis but his form was much better coming into that race and I just wonder if he’ll be sharp enough this time.

Noble Endeavour has run well at the course before and had had positive comments from his trainer at preview nights. The 11st 11lb he has to carry is what puts me off even if his actual mark could be reasonable enough

I have a feeling this trip may stretch the novice Ibis Du Rheu a little and so the one that stands out to me is another novice chaser, Singlefarmpayment.

He was unlucky to be brought down last time but looks well handicapped on what he has achieved this year (including an impressive course win). Tom George could have run him in the RSA chase tomorrow but obviously feels his mark needs exploiting here

sfarmpay

First recommendation of the day here:

1pt ew SINGLEFARMPAYMENT 15/2 (Bet 365 and Bet Victor currently offering ¼ odds 12345

******

Tuesday morning update

Definitely ahead of the price here. Singlefarmpayment now a top price 6/1 on Oddschecker (7.4 to back on Exchange in win only market)

3.30 Champion Hurdle 2 miles

The highlight of day one but sadly missing it’s last two winners, Faugheen and Annie Power through injury:

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2017-03-14-cheltenham/15:30/winner

Runner by runner analysis here:

BRAIN POWER

Disposed of a competitive handicap field at Ascot in impressive fashion despite a high weight. That immediately meant he was ready for this grade. Good ground should suit and handicappers have made such a jump before in the same season (Celtic Shot and Make A Stand immediately springing to mind). Definite contender though would have liked to see him perform better than he did on the course at the beginning of the season – does it suit him? – the jury is out on that one

brain power

BUVEUR D’AIR

Third in last year’s Supreme Novices then a narrow winner at Aintree from Petit Mouchoir. Started the season chasing but switched back as some of the principals dropped out. His sole hurdle win this season is a mile away from Championship form. Has undoubted potential but price is very skinny on what he has achieved. Even the trainer admits he needs softer ground and a prime candidate to see his odds drift on the day of the race

CH’TIBELLO

No crabbing this horse from me as I explained in my blog this week!. Has come out of a small wind operation well since beaten by Yanworth last time. Prior to that I thought that he might not quite get home on a stiff track like this but maybe he might now that this little issue has been sorted. He’s a very slick jumper and a better horse on a decent surface. I’m hopeful he will run on from the back to grab a place

CYRUS DARIUS

Looked a potential new star when skating up at Aintree in his novice season. Unfortunately injury ruled him out of most of last season. Hasn’t done enough yet this year to make me think he is a contender at this level

FOOTPAD

From last years juvenile crop which it has to be said have looked distinctly average last year. I did see him at Leopardstown both this year and last and was impressed how much he had strengthened up over the 12 months interim period. Probably flattered last time to get so close to Petit Mouchoir last time while a 2 way battle was going on up front. I think he’s up against it here

MOON RACER

Champion Bumper winner in 2014 but has had a few problems since. Unbeaten this season and could have run in the Supreme Novices. Rerouted here probably as he is 8 already and has left it late to get here. Nothing in his form that merits his current price in my view and not for me

THE NEW ONE/MYTENTORYOURS

I’m putting these two together as they represent past Champion Hurdle form which could have been a higher level than this year’s race. Neither are getting any younger and have had their chances

Both beaten by Yanworth at Kempton over Christmas (Ch’tibello 3rd) and hard to see how they will turn that around.

Mytentoryours has been the subject of some glowing gallop reports lately and is the one of the pair who might just spring an upset. He’s always been his own worst enemy by pulling too hard and if age has finally calmed him down – and the talent he undoubtedly has has come back – then they should all be a little bit frightened

The New One seems to be slowly regressing on the other hand. Connections have talked about sending him chasing or going to the Stayers this season which indicates they think his time might have gone in this race.

PETIT MOUCHOIR

Boasts the best Irish form this year courtesy of two wins at Leopardstown. He looked hard fit to me for his last win and not sure if there’ll be much improvement from that. I’m also concerned about him on this track and whether he will come up the hill.

petitmouch

SCEAU ROYAL

Another from last season’s juvenile crop. Started the season well but has found his limitations since and beaten by Yanworth and Ch’tibello last time

WICKLOW BRAVE

The 2016 Irish St Leger winner would be the classiest of these on the flat. His preparation for this is hardly conventional with his last run being in the Melbourne Cup.

Can have two ways of running over hurdles – and more often than not it’s the negative side that turns up as he seems to want things to go his own way.

Has the ability to be a contender but it will be something of a shock to see him win (Ruby Walsh has chosen to ride Footpad in preference)

YANWORTH

The favourite and deservedly so. Didn’t win by far last time at Wincanton but the way he pricked his ears on the run in suggested he was only doing as much as he had to. That course, and also Kempton over Christmas, would both be very sharp for him and this course should suit much better

yanners.

The negative with Yanworth is his jumping. It might well have cost him a win in the Neptune last season as he was kept wide to have a clear view of his hurdles (Yorkhill nipped up the rails saving much more ground and got first un on him)

He did look better at Kempton but still doesn’t have as fluid a technique as others

 

CONCLUSIONS

Petit Mouchoir has made the running on his last two runs so he looks the most obvious front-runner here. I don’t think he’ll want to make it an end to end gallop though and I wonder who will share the honours up front – Moon Racer and The New One are probably most likely.

I can see the winner coming from one who sits just behind that pace but without being right at the back.

Yanworth at the top of my shortlist but the ‘elephant in the room/ that is his hurdling just prevents me from making him as a solid bet. Brain Power is a big danger if he handles the course. Mytentoryours is perhaps the value option at around 16/1 for those looking at the bigger prices if reports of his homework are true. Ch’tibello should do himself justice – I struggle to see him beating Yanworth but he makes some appeal in the ‘Betting without Yanworth market at around 20/1

*******

Tuesday morning update

Sadly Ch’tibello misses the race with a minor foot infection. He’ll probably be fine tomorrow so it’s gutting for connections for this to happen on the day. Probably Punchestown for him now. Strong money for Yanworth so far see him down to around 9/4 from around 3/1 last night

4.10 Mares Hurdle 2ml 4fur

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2017-03-14-cheltenham/16:10/winner

3 horses dominating here and all from Ireland. Limini and last year’s winner Vroum Vroum Mag from team Mullins and Gordon Elliott’s Apples Jade.

The vibes about Vroum Vroum Mag really haven’t been very positive recently since she struggled to win at Doncaster. She is the one I would most easily pass over with Ruby Walsh also making the same decision and riding Limini.

Limini beat Apples Jade last time well enough to suggest it would be hard for the Gigginstown runner to turn the form around. There is a suggestion that Limini may be best fresh though and I didn’t think she was that impressive when winning the Mares Novice race last season.

At the prices, Apples Jade has to be the each way bet for me with ¼ odds being available.

applesjade

These three are someway ahead of the UK team on form. Lifeboat Mona and Colins Sister have both looked good but are both stepping up to a higher grade. I think the latter mare in particular could be up to this level in time but to me she wants a softer surface than she will encounter here

Recommendation:

2pts ew APPLES JADE 9/2 Bet 365 (be sure to take ¼ odds 123 rather than 1/5th)

********

Tuesday morning update

Pricewise went for Apples Jade the selection which probably prevented any hope of 5/1 appearing. Still 9/2 available in places which is better than can be found on the exchange. Sadly, Colins Sister bruised a heel and is out – it would have been nice to see how she fared in this grade but there will be other days for her!

4.50 JT McNamara National Hunt Chase 4 miles

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2017-03-14-cheltenham/16:50/winner

I can see JP McManus wanting to win this race badly as it is named after a rider who won so many races for him until his life was tragically cut short.

If the British handicapper is right, his Edwulf is a 159 rated horse and some way ahead of these. The trip should suit, he has one of the best amateur riders possible on board and he was very impressive last time up. A fall in his previous race is the one nagging doubt about him but the race was won by Minella Rocco last year who had a similar question mark coming into the race. He just needs to get settled into a nice rhythm early

edwulf

Champers on Ice appeals as the main danger from the home team. He was totally outpaced here over 2 and a half miles last time and this trip could be right up his street.

I think win only is the more prudent way to go here so the recommendations are:

2pts win Edwulf 11/2 (WillHill)

1pt win Champers on Ice 8/1(generally available)

5.30 Close Brothers Hcap Chase

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2017-03-14-cheltenham/17:30/winner

I had Value At Risk marked firmly down for this one but nothing leaping out for me now he has dropped out. I may do an update closer to the time if things become clearer. While it is a handicap there is only 4lbs separating all the runners so it’s almost a conditions race in reality

*******

Tuesday update

I went through this race a bit overnight but nothing really shone out. Foxtail Hill might be well in but had his own way in the lead last time off a low weight. He has much more on his back now and strong likelihood that others will take him on. This could set it up for something to come from the back. Most of the field seem to be in the grip of the handicapper. I really liked Bun Doran‘s win at Ayr earlier this year but would be very concerned about the ground for him. Tully East performed well at the meeting last year and could do again back on decent ground.  If I had to pick one it would be Double Ws  at 16/1, who should like the ground and is still relatively unexposed at this trip. The North don’t get too many winners at Cheltenham these days but Malcolm Jefferson’s strike rate here must be one of the best for them. He did get a very positive mention from the jockey Brian Hughes at one of the preview evenings. Not a confident selection by any means and a race for low stakes

 

******

Monday Evening Update (8.50pm)

Pricewise in the Racing Post has put up two of the selections from earlier today:

Singlefarmpayment has been put up at a rather incredible 10/1 with Boylesports and 8/1 generally. At the moment 15/2 is the best available anywhere and there is no 8/1 even on Betfair exchange. Good luck to anyone who can avail themselves of 10/1 tomorrow morning!

Apples Jade has also been tipped at 9/2 so that price will be lucky to hold unless there is strong support for the Mullins pair.

A few firms going 1/4 odds a place in the Arkle has made it meat and drink for a ‘filthy each way bet’ Bet 365 in particular are appearing in black type on Oddschecker for many with their win odds. Charbel for instance is 12/1 1/4 odds 1-2-3. You get 3/1 for the place part of the bet here. On the place only market on Betfair Exchange the same horse is 5/4 to lay just to illustrate what value can be taken here. There are similar stand out place odds for all of the other runners so perfectly possible to back two and still come out with a profit if only 1 places. Charbel would be my strongest recommendation for an each way play with these place terms. Whatever you fancy, I would also recommend perming each way doubles if you have a selection or two in Wednesday’s Champion Chase also (Simply Ned remains my main each way play here). If you can get 1/4 odds a place as well here you are increasing the place odds in your favour even more. Your account may suffer for this kind of bet in time though!

*******

 

Thanks for reading – and here’s hoping we can get off to a good start with the meeting

I will do quick updates later this evening and at lunchtime tomorrow if more value appears. Firms will update their odds again later and there may be some better place terms available then also

Good luck with whatever you back!

Paul

 

********

Summary of recommendations so far:

Day 1

1pt ew Singlefarmpayment 15/2 (1/4 odds 12345)

2pts ew Apples Jade 9/2  (1/4 odds 123)

2pts win Edwulf 11/2

1pt win Champers on Ice 8/1

Day 2

1pt ew Shattered Love 25/1(1/5 odds 123)

0.5pts ew Simply Ned 66/1 (1/5 odds 123)

Day 4

0.5pts ew Forth Bridge 33/1 (1/4 odds 123)

 

 

 

 

 

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2017 in Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham, Gordon Elliott, Horse Racing, Leopardstown, Ruby Walsh, Uncategorized, Willie Mullins, Yanworth

 

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Cheltenham 2016 – Day 1

14 Mar

Tuesday has ‘Good to Soft’ as the expected ground but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s riding nearer to Good given the weather forecast

The weather has certainly been fine over the last few days as this interesting PR shot that appeared today testifies….

tweed

Short but sweet – here’s the selections with some already covered in the Preview blog
1.30
Already covered in the Preview, I’m happy to see some 9/2 available for Altior and the best option is to go with Paddy Power who offer 1/5th odds a place 1234. The extra place offered counts for a lot
Recommendation 2pts ew ALTIOR @9/2 (Paddy Power)

2.10

Douvan looks an exceptional novice and given a clear round it will be a shock if he’s beaten. Odds of 2/5 reflect this and with now only 7 runners there isn’t really an each way angle to play with. Vaniteux and Sizing John should be fighting it out for second from a form basis but there’s always a danger that if they try to take on the fav they could suffer for it and let the way in for one of the outsiders to jump into the frame. A race to watch but no bet for me now

2.50

Out Sam was my choice yesterday and I’ll stick with that although I won’t put him forward as a recommendation as the hoped for price of 8/1 is no longer there now. I do think he’s very well handicapped but it is in the back of my mind that he may not be streetwise enough for such a big field. It’s a very hot race with Holywell, Southfield Theatre and Morning Assembly all capable of performing well off their respective marks. Southfield Theatre would be marginally the pick of these for me from a price perspective at 20/1 with the prospect of the ground now getting close to the good he prefers

3.30  Champion Hurdle

Again covered in the preview and 6/1 still there for The New one so that is where the recommendation lies.

Preview night chat seems to suggest that Sempre Medici will be held out back and ridden to place rather than win so he could be the one for anyone looking for a long priced outsider.

Sadly Old Guard didn’t make it into the race due to a muscle problem
1.5pts ew THE NEW ONE @6/1 (Betfred ¼ 123)

4.10

Covered in the preview again and the ground would seem to be coming right for Polly Peachum (and quite possibly against Vroum Vroum Mag)

Stephanie Frances is interesting at a big price. Dan Skelton has stated he’ll only run her if she gets her beloved good ground and that seems increasingly likely. The trip is a question mark but if this was a slow pace (has happened in this race before) she does have a potent turn of foot. With trailblazer Desert Queen in the field however, we are more likely to get a proper stamina test

1.5pts ew POLLY PEACHUM @13/2 (Coral ¼ 123)

4.50

No bet here. Minella Rocco looks to be plotted up for this but still has to questions to prove on jumping around this course. If I were forced to pick one it would be Measureofmydreams but I could easily make a shortlist of 7 or 8 possible winners in this tricky marathon event.

5.30

This is a handicap but with only 4lbs separating the 20 runners you would be forgiven for knowing that!

I’ve had this race in mind for Double Shuffle for some time and he’s jumped around the course with aplomb already twice this season. He’s only been raised 4 lbs for a win on ground that was probably a bit too soft for him and the surface here should suit much better. He was a decent hurdler but chasing was always going to see him in a better light and hope he can get Paddy Brennan off the scoresheet on what could be a good week for him. Enhanced place terms available here with Betfair Sportsbook if you can get on with them

Double Shuffle

Aloomomo is feared and had a nice prep over hurdles at Ascot for this. He’s ben raised 11lbs since his last chase win and may well be up to that. The ground will be quicker here than what he has won on before however. At a best price of 6/1 I think the market has him plenty short enough already.
Recommendation: 1pt ew DOUBLE SHUFFLE @11/1 (Betfair Sportsbook ¼ odds 12345)

Thanks for reading and good luck!

 

Paul

 

 

*MIDDAY UPDATE*

Main news this morning was the almost nonchalant aanouncement that Vautour would head for the Ryanair on Thursday instead of Friday’s Gold Cup by the owner (last week he was quoted as ‘Gold Cup’ or nothing). This will have sent the Ryanair market into disarray. It’s good news for Cue Card supporters like myself and I imagine that Smad Place backers will take most heart from this announcement. That one is now far more likely to get the uncontested lead he seems to enjoy (Road to Riches could possibly keep him company)

As for today’s bets. Unfortunately the blog went up just last night after Pricewise (Tom Segal) put up his selections which included Double Shuffle in the last. Consequently the odds weren’t around for long on that. The 9/2 on Altior has gone but I’m surprised to see that Polly Peachum has gone out to 15/2 with some firms (giving 15/8 on the place despite that being no higher than 11/8 on exchange place only markets). This is largely due to strong support for the favourite Vroum Vroum Mag.

In the 2.50 Out Sam has hit the desired 8/1 price with a few firms and with 5 places available that is now an extra bet for the blog.

Recommendation

1pt ew OUT SAM @8/1 1/4 12345 (Bet 365, Bet Victor)

Day 1 selections summary

2pts ew ALTIOR @9/2

1pt ew OUT SAM @8/1

1.5 pts ew THE NEW ONE @6/1

1.5 pts ew POLLY PEACHUM @13/2 (15/2 now available)

1 pt ew DOUBLE SHUFFLE @11/1

Total stakes on day 14 pts

Wednesday preview will be online this evening – hopefully before the Pricewise beast is unleashed this time!

 
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Posted by on March 14, 2016 in Arkle, Champion Hurdle, Cheltenham, Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival Preview 2016

13 Mar

The blog has had to take a lengthy holiday due to work commitments but is back for the big week of the year – the Cheltenham Festival – where it’s had most success over the past couple of years.
I’ll put up some quick previews for each day the night before – starting on Monday.
Here are my early thoughts on some of the selections I am already with over the 4 day period.
I won’t put up a staking plan on these today – merely selections. In many cases, I think there may be more value to be had on the day when prices and place terms are often more enhanced. Generally speaking if a horse is 4/1 or more and ¼ odds 123 or more are available I will probably be playing each way – less than 4/1 and it’ll be win only (there will always be a few exceptions but I will detail those if we come to them)
The ones listed below are the ones I’d be more inclined to be using for angles in multiple bets (doubles, trebles,etc).over the week ahead. A staking plan will be added to the daily blog to analyse profit/loss over the 4 days.
Do always check the place terms if betting now – ¼ odds a place should be widely available next week on most races. Some bookies have already reduced the riskier each way races to 1/5th odds. This makes mathematical sense but it would be no surprise to see them revert next week to be more competitive and lure in more bets.

Onto the week ahead and the early selections….
Ground will hold sway on some of these. At the moment the course is reported as soft but with drying conditions likely over the next few days I’m largely assuming the ground will be good to soft on Tuesday with prospect of it getting better still as the week progresses.

TUESDAY (48 hour declarations due out later today which may cause market movements)

1.30 Supreme Novices
A lot of ups and downs in the market here recently with doubt concerning the participation of Yorkhill. Right now it looks like he will be running in Wednesday’s Neptune instead.
Willie Mullins/Rich Ricci have won this with favourites Vautour and Douvan for the past two years and Min is a shorter price currently than both of those two. That doesn’t mean he is as good and on what he has achieved he is too short. He is a free going sort who has won his races easily so far this season but beaten nothing of the calibre he meets here. The preliminaries are a concern to connections.
I’m much more taken by second fav Altior, who has also displayed keenness in his racing earlier this season but still found plenty of reserves to win his first couple of races. He has winning form on the course – it wasn’t impressive in beating Maputo but that was a very tactical and slow run race. He was much better of a better pace at Kempton over Christmas. I feel he will thrive here off a strong gallop and with the uphill finish and he should be favourite. He probably wouldn’t want to ground too soft but as long as it dries out as expected I’ll be cheering him on

altior
Stablemate Buveur D’Air hasn’t faced any strong opposition this season. He has closely matched form with Altior in bumpers last season but that’s hard to take at face value now. He appeared then as a strong travelling type who didn’t finish of his races quite as well as others and I wonder whether the hill might find him out here. He may prefer the ground to stay soft also
Supasundae has been well talked up at preview nights as an each way bet. Henry de Bromhead doesn’t waste his runners here but this one has to improve his jumping and didn’t get home up the hill in the Bumper here last season after running freely early on.
At a Dublin preview on Thursday, Gordon Elliott was asked if punters should back his Tombstone each way for this race. He replied ‘no’ which doesn’t augur well for that one’s chances!
Selection : ALTIOR ew at 4/1 or better with ¼ odds 123

 

2.50 Ultima Hcap
This seems to be the desired race for Warren Greatrex’s Out Sam who has somehow got into the Festival with a mark of 139. The form of his last comfortable win at Newbury makes that mark stand out as being highly lenient and if 8/1 is available still it’s hard not to have some interest.
This race will be completely different – a big field racing against seasoned handicappers rather than novices. However this race often favours both novices and light weights (he should be carrying 10st 2lbs if weights don’t rise)
Southfield Theatre would be of interest at a bigger price given his previous Festival record. He hasn’t shown much this season but needs decent ground to show his best. The vibes from Ditcheat are that he is coming back to form but I’m not sure if the ground will have dried up for him sufficiently by Tuesday.
Selection; OUT SAM ew at 8/1

 

3.30 CHAMPION HURDLE
A wide open race since the defection of Faugheen and Arctic Fire.
Annie Power is too short a price for me considering her original aim was the Mares Hurdle and she has come in as a late replacement for Faugheen’s owner Rich Ricci.
She looked a possible runner two years ago but was diverted to the World Hurdle instead. When it looked likely she would run in the Champion she was no shorter than The New One and My Tent or Yours. There’s no evidence she has progressed since so the disparity in odds against those two is a little strange to me.
My Tent or Yours probably has the most talent but hasn’t run for a long time and that’s a major concern for a horse who has had a problem settling. Twice he has finished second at the Festival after his early exertions have left him vulnerable to a stronger stayer up the hill.
The New One appeals most at current prices. He wasn’t suited by a tactical pace last year and had an interrupted preparation. The year before he was an unlucky loser after being badly hampered early in the race. He is effective on the course though – the way he accelerated up the hill to win the Neptune in 2013 shouldn’t be forgotten. Jumping has always been a bit of an issue with this horse but he can really come up this hill well and this is the easiest opportunity to win a Champion Hurdle he will ever get. (Nice pointer for the form of the stable with Flying Angel winning the Imperial Cup yesterday)
Nichols Canyon probably has the best form this year and he could get an easy lead up front (Camping Ground the only other possible front runner by my reckoning). I’m not convinced he acted on the course here last year though and wonder if he needs a flatter track as his form at Aintree afterwards looked much better.
At bigger odds, I much prefer Old Guard who has improved a lot this year and has plenty of winning course form. The better the ground is the more I give him a chance. I wouldn’t take his Kempton form literally – wrong track and ground too soft. He holds Sempre Medici and Hargam on earlier Cheltenham form. An issue developed here at the Sandown Park preview last night when trainer Paul Nicholls said his latest piece of work had been ‘dire’. I was going to add him as a second selection but best to wait for further news emanating on his well-being for now
Sempre Medici has been put up as an each way bet by several judges at preview meetings. It seems he may be ridden quietly out the back and aiming for a place more than a win. Similar types have been placed before so it wouldn’t be the biggest shock for him to hit the frame
Selection:
THE NEW ONE ew at 6/1 or better

thenewone

***Sunday evening update – Old Guard withdrawn from race due to muscle problem***

 

4.10 Mares Hurdle
Team Mullins has had a stranglehold on this race for several years.
Vroum Vroum Mag is their short priced favourite this time. She’s won a lot of mares races very easily but for me has yet to do anything to suggest that she is a 160 type of horse as her price suggests – her actual rating is 154 and not that far ahead of anything else in the race ( no course form for her either)
I much prefer another Henderson second fav, Polly Peachum, who looks a really solid each way at around 6/1
The more the ground dries out the better for her and she was narrowly beaten in this race last year when rated 155 (now dropped to 149). The ground was far too soft for her when she still managed to beat The Govaness at Sandown (latter an obvious non stayer behind Vroum Vroum Mag at Ascot so wouldn’t be taking that as a collateral form line). She is capable of a higher level than that and is proven over the course
There wouldn’t be much to choose between Polly Peachum and Bitofapuzzle on last year’s form but the latter (if she runs) comes here from a couple of disappointing chasing efforts and apparently has had breathing problems.
The selection goes off to the paddocks after this race so am very hopeful she can end her jumping career on a high.
Selection: POLLY PEACHUM ew at 6/1 with ¼ odds 123

WEDNESDAY

1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle
I haven’t seen a better novice hurdler than Yanworth this season. He’s not a great price now but will be shocked if he is beaten such has been his superiority against decent opposition in his last two victories. Earlier in the season his jumping technique was in need of polishing up but the work on that seems to have paid off and I can’t find any negatives. One of the weeks bankers
Selection; YANWORTH win

yanners

4.50 Fred Winter Hurdle
There seem to be a lot of potential plots here in this competitive handicap for 4yo hurdlers. The handicapper might have scuppered the chances of Campeador who was an early talking horse.
I attended a preview in Dublin on Thursday where there were subtle hints that Missy Tata was well fancied before Gordon Elliott put her up as his charity bet.
The one I most want to be with though is Paul Nicholls’ Diego du Charmil who there has been a strong whisper for over the last couple of weeks and is now fav.
This race used to have a strong stat favouring highly rated flat horses but things have changed a little in the last couple of years with Nicholls having success with unexposed French breds like this one.
He has supposedly been doing very well on the gallops with much higher rated types and has been saved for this. He could be very well in here – it’s hard to judge him on his French form but his second in this race linked below looks to show a horse that had plenty more to offer….


There are a couple of others at much bigger odds I also have my eye on but will wait until the day for those.
For now the selection is DIEGO DU CHARMIL ew 7/1 or better

 

THURSDAY

Not looking the strongest of the four days for me and will largely leave this until the night before
THISTLECRACK has very little negatives in the World Hurdle at 3.30 except a very small concern if the ground has become good by that time. He should be odds on and would be if he were trained by someone like Mullins.
In the new Mares Novice Hurdle at 4.50, SMART TALK appears a solid ew proposition. She’s improving with every race and would have won with a lot more in hand last time but for a blunder in the home straight.
She could be up against a very classy recruit in short priced favourite Limini but that one does have some questions to answer with her jumping. Her flat race class could carry her through but I’d be surprised if Smart Talk was out of the frame so an each way bet appears far better value

***Sunday evening update. 3rd fav Myska withdrawn from Mares Novice Hurdle. 6/1 really shouldn’t be lasting on Smart Talk now if 1/4 odds 123 are available, An each way bet becomes even better value if you can get those odds and place terms***

FRIDAY

1.30 Triumph Hurdle
I believe the strongest trial for this may have been run over this course in January event though it probably didn’t throw up the right result at the time.
Who Dares Wins and Clan Des Obeaux finished 4th and 2nd respectively (behind Protek Des Flos) but these two started racing each other a very long way out on some very sticky ground. They paid for those efforts up the hill but in so doing kept themselves at attractive odds.
If the ground were soft on Friday I’d be inclined to be with Clan Des Obeaux who has the look of a future high class chaser.
However, with conditions likely to be quicker, I have to be with Alan King’s Who Dares Wins. He was too keen early on in that Cheltenham race and had to make the running. He still came out as marginally the best horse in the race as was giving away weight all round. On better ground and with a faster pace to come off, this decent ex-Flat racer should be a much better proposition.

whodareswins

It seems possible that Richard Johnson will ride given comments at Sandown last night. Alan King knows how to win this race and I think he will be the stable’s number one here on better ground over Sceau Royal.
Zubayr has to be feared after his win at Kempton recently – the same route taken by recent winners Zarkandar and Soldatino. He appeals more than Ivanovich Gorbatov who didn’t jump well enough last time at Leopardstown and is an awful price on that form
Selection; WHO DARES WINS ew 12/1 or better

3.30 Gold Cup
The highlight of the Festival and I think Kempton’s King George result is by far the strongest piece of form to go on here.
It’s debatable whether Don Cossack would have won that day if he had stayed up at the second last but I do question his effectiveness over this course given his previous record here (3rd and fell)
That leaves Vautour and Cue Card. Vautour was outstayed that day but is expected to be fitter this time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win but reports of a lack lustre gallop recently aren’t encouraging. The stamina question over further and with an uphill finish to contend with remain. On the plus side it’s hard to forget how he came right at the Festival last year with a spectacular win in the JLT.
I’m firmly in the Cue Card camp for this race to pick up a fairytale win and secure a £1 million bonus fund in the process.
Given his breeding (dam Wicked Crack as a very good stayer) it was always a surprise to see him display so much speed when he burst onto the Festival scene winning the Bumper in 2010.
He was one of the stars to develop from a stellar year of novice hurdlers in 2011 and got another Festival success in the 2013 Ryanair. He is a proven Festival performer.

cuecard
Cue Card lost his way last year but after a breathing operation has come back a completely revitalised horse. He no longer runs freely out at front and can be settled comfortably off the pace – he now looks the stayer his breeding promised him to be. In Paddy Brennan he has found a new partner and they look to be a match made in heaven. His Kempton win proved he was back at the top of his game but I believe he can be better than that. His jumping there wasn’t as good as it can be and all of his best form has been on left handed courses like Cheltenham
I’m taking him to beat off a strong Irish challenger.
Don Poli is some way behind these on form but is a bit deceiving as he is the sort who keeps on winning by doing just enough. That is an admirable trait but I think he may lack some pace against others here on what is likely to be decent ground on Friday. In much softer conditions, he would be one to fear more

Selection; CUE CARD ew 5/1 or better

 

The blog will be back during the week with updates and quick race-by-race synopsis
Thanks for reading and good luck to all over the week ahead with whatever you back

Paul

(comments always appreciated)

 

Some useful links

To compare odds with all firms I use (though check individual websites as changes don’t always come instantaneously) http://www.oddschecker.com

For further write ups on many of the Cheltenham preview nights that have occurred over the past couple of weeks: http://www.fatjockey.com/forum/showthread.php?5915-2016-Cheltenham-Festival-Preview-Nights

A really interesting read (as always)from Timeform’s Simon Rowlands on sectional times for many of next week’s leading contenders  https://www.timeform.com/racing/articles/the-timeform-timing-preview-of-the-2016-cheltenham-festival-732016

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2016 in Cheltenham, Paul Nicholls, Uncategorized

 

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