thefinalfence

Saturday 6^th April is the day for the biggest betting race of the year when an expected maximum field  of 40 line up for the 2013 Grand National over four and a half miles at Aintree.

The fences may not be as daunting as they once were but the likelihood is that by making them ‘easier’ the speed of the race may be quicker making it no less of a test than before for horse and rider (and in my own mind no less likely to cause the occasional unfortunate accidents)

Until the final declarations are revealed on Thursday there still remain 49 entries – if no more drop out than all of the lowest weights from Major Malarkey down will be eliminated ( current entry list is here http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=571196&r_date=2013-04-06#raceTabs=sc_)

Some basic stats to help pinpoint the winner:

Age: Experience tends to count for a lot in this event. 8-12 is definitely required but 9-11 would be the ideal range.

Stamina : We have to go back to Gay Trip in 1970 to find a winner that hadn’t won over at least 3 miles previously. It used to be said that a good 2 and a half mile chaser was ideal for this (by Gay Trip’s trainer funnily enough!) but there isn’t much evidence to support this now. Being able to have the pace to win over that trip is desirable but further stamina is most definitely required. Even after the last fence a lot can change in this race – just watch Specify’s win in 1971 if you can to find this out

Course experience: Not essential (last two winners were untried over the course ) but having jumped round before has to be desirable.

Weight: This used to be crucial in the past with a big leaning towards those weighted 11 stone or less. In recent times we have seen this matter somewhat less. This could well be down to the course becoming easier (and the ground not being so soft) but I still recall John Francome’s words that this race was much more of a test of weight carrying on a horse than any normal race. I still believe that lower weighted horses have some advantage in the race – last year 4 of the first 5 were less than 10st and although the winner was higher it could be argued he was leniently treated on his past form and was a very classy animal. Higher than 11 stone and you need a horse that would not look out of place in a Gold Cup field

Preparation: Nowadays if you want to maximise your chance win this you need to get weighted leniently by the official handicapper. Running at the Cheltenham Festival a few weeks earlier is usually a no-no. Many trainers have run their aspiring winners over hurdles rather than chases in recent years – the aim is not to show your hand before the weights are released – having too high a weight then could spell doom. Worst prep races for me are Haydock’s Grand National Trial – usually raced in bog-like conditions and can often can finish off a horse for the season before it’s even lined up for this. Also the John Hughes Trophy over the course earlier in the season – having a pop round the fences down the field is good – winning it and running your handicap mark is a cardinal sin!

Time to look at some runners:

The best race as a pointer for this year is probably last year’s event:

From that we have:

(1^st Neptune Collonges (now retired))

2^nd Sunnyhillboy 10st 5lbs (rating 142) – this year 11st 4lbs (152)

3^rd Seabass 10st 12lbs (rating 149) – this year 11st 6lbs (154)

4^th Cappa Bleu 10st 10lbs (rating 147) – this year 10st 11lbs (145)

6^th Ballabriggs 11st 9lbs (rating 160) – this year 11st 4lbs (152)

10^th Swing Bill 10st 3lbs (rating 140) – this year 10st 8lbs (142)

Fell – Weird Al 11st 8lbs (rating 159) – this year 11st 8lbs (156)

Fell – Quiscover Fontaine 10st 4lb (141) – this year 10st 7lbs (141)

Fell – On His Own 10st 11lb (148) – this year 11st (148)

Fell – Becauseicouldntsee 10st 3lbs (140) – this year 10st 6lbs (140)

Brought Down – Rare Bob 10st 9lbs (146) – this year 10st 6lbs (140)

Brought Down – Chicago Grey 10st 13lbs (150) – this year 10st 7lbs (141)

Caught on the line last year, Sunnyhillboy has lost his chance for me now having to carry nearly a stone more. Seabass looked to not quite stay the trip and also has increased weight to overcome so is passed over. Ballabriggs had a massive burden last year after winning in 2011- he has less to carry here but still is over the weight I would be happy to see him carrying – quite conceivable he could be around 4^th or 5^th again though (but without winning)

The interesting ones from the ‘class of 2012’ for me are:

CAPPA BLEU. 12 lengths behind Sunnyhillboy and 7 behind Seabass, he is better off with both this year. Moreover he was twice hampered in the race and got further behind than was ideal when the action started to hot up. Given more luck in running I can see him turning the form around with both as he finished stronger than any of those in front of him. He’s always had a touch of class about him since winning the Cheltenham Foxhunters as a 6yo (now 11 but lightly raced for one his age). His prep run at Ascot was eyecatching and makes his rating of 145 look lenient  – gave 7lbs to Vino Griego and that one is now rated 151

ON HIS OWN. Looked a big contender when falling at Bechers Brook on second circuit and will be bidding to emulate West Tip who won this race after having departed at the same fence when travelling equally well the year before his win. His hurdles prep looked ideal and he has got in off the same mark. Currently around the 7/1 mark and favourite which will be cemented if Ruby Walsh takes the ride. The worry is that’s plenty short enough for this race and that was a nasty fall he took here last year – will he remember it? Nevertheless has to be on the shortlist.

QUISCOVER FONTAINE. Take no notice of Racing Post comment that he was ‘always in rear’ when falling at 17^th last year. He was still travelling nicely then and travelling alongside eventual winner Neptune Collonges when he fell. Has been given an interesting prep over trips that are probably too short for him now and handicap mark has been protected. Some concerns over stamina (hasnt won over 3 miles or more yet) but ran perfectly well in the Irish Grand National in 2011 when 4^th – 4.5 lengths behind Sunnyhillboy there but a stone better off in this race.

CHICAGO GREY. Too early to say what would have happened with him here last year when State of Play brought him down. We do know he is very well in and possibly the best handicapped horse in this race on past form having slipped down to 141. He has won since this weight was allotted and has performed at 150+ level in the past. Another for the shortlist but the worry with him is that he does get behind in his races. That isn’t always suited to this race but he is likely to have the best pilot on board to cope with this problem in Paul Carberry

Previous National form is also brought to the table by Big Fella Thanks (4^th in 2010, 7^th in 2011). Both times he has jumped round for fun and then patently failed to stay the trip – no reason he should do any differently here. Always Waining is also a course specialist having won the shorter Topham Trophy 3 times – he has never raced here off the sort of mark he has here though and no reason to suggest the increase in trip is what he needs. Both of these should be running in Friday’s Topham in my view

Non course form is headed by the top weight and former Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. He is 12 now and has had his problems – his mark of 158 is on the lenient side but it’s a huge ask to carry 11st 10lbs to victory here – Red Rum was the last to carry more nearly 40 years ago. He would be seeking to emulate another old Gold Cup hero, L’Escargot who won this as a 12yo. L’Escargot did win this at his third attempt though and carried 7lbs less.

Teaforthree (11st 3lbs) has long looked a likely National type. I do worry that a hard race in the Welsh National may not be the ideal prep though and his mark of 151 is plenty high enough. He has some ground to make up on JOIN TOGETHER (11st 2lbs) as well from last year’s form and that one appeals more ( he also has run over the course in the John Hughes and has done very well to only get a 2 lb rise for that effort)

Roberto Goldback  (11st 6lbs) was bought as a National horse and supposedly trained for the race all season. So why on earth did they start him off by running him in a valuable handicap at Ascot which he won by 9 lengths and destroyed his handicap rating? His form tailed off since and he is now 4lb higher than at Ascot – not convinced he has all of the stamina attributes for this test though

Across The Bay (11st 2lbs) doesn’t appeal as the type to like these fences for me despite being trained by Donald McCain who has few peers for this race (Ballabriggs his best chance this year for me)

Colbert Station (11st 1lb) is figuring highly in markets but is running off a far higher mark than ever before. His price is more to do with his trainer (Ted Walsh) and likely jockey (AP McCoy).

We get to my favoured 11 stone and unders now and of those not already mentioned, BALTHAZAR KING (10st 12lbs) has to be of interest. He has lots of Cross Country chasing form which ought to translate well to the demands of this race, stays well and likes to race prominently – all attributes that could stand him in good stead for this. He should like the ground also while it remains good or good to soft. Another one for the shortlist.

Saint Are (10st 8lbs) should also get a mention further down the handicap as he has such a good record at this meeting having won here for the last two seasons. That wasn’t over the national fences however and his age of 7 heavily counts against him – he does tend to ruin his chances sometimes with bad errors and these fences aren’t  the place for that!

After this analysis I have the following shortlist for this year’s race

CAPPA BLEU

ON HIS OWN

CHICAGO GREY

QUISCOVER FONTAINE

JOIN TOGETHER

BALTHAZAR KING

I couldn’t put anyone off backing any of these so it just comes down to prices available and value to break them down further now. Join Together is just over the weight level I am looking for but all others have 11 stone or less.

Betvictor head the list of firms offering said ‘value’ by paying out ¼ odds a place on the first 6 places. This is likely to be highly unprofitable for them and is a shop window offer to bring in more customer interest. For those who like to back several each way selections they have to be the main port of call as will pay out on 2 more horses than many High Street firms. If you can’t bet with them then take one of the firms that offer ¼ odds first 5 places (Bet365, Skybet, Boylesports, Paddy Power at time of writing out of the major firms).

The only reason for me to touch other firms is if they are considerably higher win odds than anyone else but this isn’t that likely – Betfair is usually the place to get the highest ‘win only’ offer.

Bear in mind that many firms will offer ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ after final declarations come through on Thursday. If the SP ends up greater you would get the higher price also but recent evidence suggests that most will have a lower SP so I would always advise taking the highest price (as long as place terms are acceptable).

If push comes to shove, best value for me of those at the head of the market is CAPPA BLEU at 11/1 ¼ 12345 ( 10/1 first six with Betvictor)

Best outsider :  QUISCOVER FONTAINE at 50/1 ¼ 12345 (40/1 first six Betvictor)

Good luck with whatever you back and enjoy the race (and lets hope they all come back safely!)

Paul

**Thurs morning update – final decs now out – lists of odds and who offers best place terms can be found here http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national-betting-odds/winner

A week of highs and lows aside from the betting aspect. The highs were performances like Sprinter Sacre and Our Conor for sheer class, and Bobs Worth for sheer guts. The lows have to be with the awful fall of JT MacNamara and the desperately unluck loss of Oscar Delta in the Foxhunters.

Just a quick run through of the blog recommendations over the week.

Stakes 47 pts – returns 43.62 pts (assuming all price criteria were met)

This doesn’t include Champagne Fever in the first race on Tuesday which although recommended I neglected to add a staking plan ( I generally looked to recommend something to win approx 10pts). Adding him in would have shown a small win on the week (and Double Ross also mentioned favourably yesterday on Twitter)

Thursday was the low spot for punting.  I just could have done without the whole day taking place! The situation could have been a lot better still with some near misses for places – Reve De Sivola touched off by a whisker for third, Totalize was a little unlucky I thought not to be placed (after meeting some interference when starting his effort – one to keep an eye on for big handicaps next season I think ), and let’s just say that the ride on Ifandbytwhynot yesterday was ‘interesting’!

Hope I’ve given some inspiration over the course of the week despite this one day of woe.

I am a big advocate of using each way betting over these big meetings. Place odds get enhanced to 1/4 from 1/5 and extra places are often added. It gives us a great chance to exploit these not just in singles but by careful use of multiple bets.

A quiet time now approaching for jump racing so we wait now for Aintree in 3 weeks time for some similar opportunities. I’ll do a piece on the Grand National in the run up to that. Flat racing doesnt really start to interest me as a betting medium until Royal Ascot.

In the meantime I have to start my studying for that much underrated betting event the Eurovision Song Contest :), and I always have an eye on tennis throughout the year.

Happy punting

Paul

(@Senor_Moodoir)

The white flag has almost been raised after day 3 – a poor day when nothing much went to plan.

Third Intention did not jump anything like as fluently as I have seen him do and Reve De Sivola was agonisingly run out of a place on the line (Richard Johnson later reported he may have been feeling the effects of his last run).

Down but not out we come back to the fourth and final day of the Festival

A big warning here though – although ground is looking fairly decent today some heavy rain is expected tomorrow so it’s very difficult to judge what the going will actually be. Take care if assuming it will be good going again!

1.30 Triumph Hurdle

The market dominated by three principals – Our Conor, Rolling Star and Far West. I would expect winner to come from one of these but there’s something that would hold me back on each of them from selecting them at current odds. Our Conor – no course experience; Rolling Star – would have liked to see him have more than one run; Far West – will the ground be soft enough?

Outside of these I can see Far West’s stablemate, Lac Fontana showing a lot of improvement in a truly run race (might appeal at 20/1+ if anyone offers it 1/4 1234).

I know the connections of Kashmir Peak and wish them all the very best but I fear the forecast rain may hinder their chances

It’s a no bet race for me

2.05 County Hurdle

I put Ifandbutwhynot up on Twitter when the decs came out earlier today as Hills offered a very tasty 16/1. He’s 11/1 best at time of writing but stil think that’s worth a small investment.

He has risen 20lb in the handicap since his course win in November. However he did beat Tanerko Emery comfortably then and that one his since risen even more and is now meeting him 11 pounds worse off!. That can’t have been a bad race as Brick Red was even further behind off levels and that one also now has a raing in excess of 140. Ifandbutwhynot gets in here off 135. In addition prior to that run he had narrowly beaten Nicky Richards’s very useful Eduard off levels and that one too is now a 140+ horse. I believe that David O’Meara’s charge could well have at least 7lbs in hand of the handicapper still.

The one worry would be the pace. He needs a strongly run race and likes to pick his way through the field. You would expect a good pace in a race like this but there seem to have been far too many competitive 2 mile hcaps run in recent years at a crawl to be confident about this.

The stats for this race point heavily to a lower weighted horse rated below 140 in recent years. This would automatically take out the top half of the field including the fav Cotton Mill. I’ll give outsider Manyriverstocross a squeak at 40/1 – he showed he still had ability after a long lay off last time and the stable have done well with few runners this week

Recommendations

1pt ew Ifandbutwhynot @11/1 or better (take 1/4 12345 if possible)

0.25 pts ew Manyriverstocross @40/1 or better (12345 again if possible)

2.40 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

The New One gave At Fishers Cross‘s form such a huge boost this week that he is the obvious one to beat. Medinas (Coral Cup winner) was also comfortably beaten by him here earlier in the season to provide a further pointer. The only concern would be the ground as connections fear it may slow his jumping if it’s too quick – but if the rains come he will be difficult to beat.

Ballycasey is the chief Irish raider and relatively unexposed. Being by Presenting you would expect him to be better suited by the ground staying as it is. If the rains do come I could see Mullins’ other runner Inish Island being a contender but he is held by At Fishers Cross on earlier course form (could be the one to look at for betting without the fav tomorrow though)

Nigel Twiston Davies’ stable came into this week with concersn about a bug but those that have run have been flying. African Gold must be respected therefore but I do feel he has become too short in the market and should be nearer the 10/1 mark. He’s a big horse and that isn’t always suited to this track and has never raced over further than 2 and a half miles yet.In contrast Irish raider, Our Vinnie looks like he needs further than this 3 miles already but if the ground gets really desperate he’ll be one to be wary of.

The weather really matter for this one so at this stage it’s a no bet recommendation

3.20 Gold Cup

The centrepiece of the meeting. There isn’t much to split these but I do prefer something with course form and that will cross Silvinaco Conti off my list straight away. Sir Des Champs I feel is underpriced on what he’s actually done – he may trained to the minute for this but the rain forecast has to be a concern.

Bob’s Worth has all of the course form but it must be a worry that he hasn’t raced since November’s Hennessy.

I’m going for Long Run to regain his crown here. Cheekpieces will be used here and are reported by work rider Nico de Boinville to have really had some effect at home – let’s just hope they don’t light him up too much. He was a disappointing 3rd in this last year but came back to win the King George over Christmas where he narrowly beat Captain Chris. Captain Chris, despite being a past Arkle winner has never looked at home here or else would be of great interest. It would have been close between him and Cue Card last time except for a terrible blunder by him – but look how Cue Card franked that form today. Suddenly the King George form doesnt look quite so bad and the further rain will suit Long Run down to the ground

Recommendation ; 2pts ew Long Run @11/2 or better (1/4 odds 123)

4.00 Foxhunters Chase

I don’t follow the Point to Point scene closely enough to have an opinion on this so it’s an automatic ‘No Bet’ (grateful for any comments from anyone who does though :))

4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle

David Pipe will want to win his ‘father’s’ race with his only entry, Gevrey Chambertin, the half-brother to Grands Crus. I don’t think his 145 mark screams of being well in though and he’s too short for me

The one I like and already tweeted this morning is Village Vic. He wouldn’t have been suited by the slow pace over two miles when still getting a fine 6th in the Betfair Hurdle. His run earlier in the season behind The New One is the motivating factor here – particularly if the ground doesnt come up too soft.

Venetia Willaims is often to be feared in handicaps here so I will throw in Nagpur as a big priced option as a back up as I feel he is overpriced and comes here relatively fresh

Keep an eye on Double Ross also is the ground does get very soft – it would significantly improve this course winner’s chance

Recommendation:

1pt ew Village Vic @12/1 (1/4 1234)

0.5 pts ew Nagpur @40/1

5.15 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual chase

Named in honour of Nicky Henderson’s father and as usual that trainer has filled up the race with entries. Kid Cassidy is a fragile sort like last year’s ill fated winner Bellvano (and like has the assistance of Paul Carberry). I swouldnt be surprised to see him come out best but I find this an impossible race and certainly won’t be trying to get out of anything on it!

BEWARE if you do bet on this market that some firms quote today’s Jewson winner Benefficient at low odds. He must be a very likely non runner and it’s a bit cheeky for those firms to include and then take a Rule 4 deduction – wait until he is declared a NR before playing with them

Recommendation; No Bet

Hope everyone has had an enjoyable Festival and good luck for the final day, Paul

Some mixed fortunes on Day 2. The New One did the job nicely for Tuesday’s recommendations and Meister Eckhart could have done without his stablemate taking part after a bold effort to finish second. Unfortunately, Totalize and Big Easy were just one place away from getting place returns. Houblon Des Obeaux just didn’t jump well enough to figure in the finish of the RSA.

Today will be remembered most for the brilliance of Sprinter Sacre though

And so to Day 3:

1.30 Jewson Chase

Dynaste is the rightful fav here and I think connections made the right choice coming to this race rather than the RSA over an extra half mile. His form is the best of these but there is a niggling doubt that his best performances have come at earlier times in the year before. That’s just what sways me from touching him at odds around 13/8.

Irish novice form was well advertised today in the NH Chase and the RSA. Texas Jack would have been god enough to be placed at least in the RSA on his last run but I think this race is stronger. Aupcharlie worries me with both his jumping and he doesn’t seem to find a lot off the bridle.

Module is an interesting contender but I feel he is underpriced on what he’s achieved.

Captain Conan was lucky to win at Sandown last time and I have reservations about the trip and if the ground will be soft enough for him.

It’s the horse who should have beat Captain Conan last time that interests me most here – Third Intention. True he doesn’t find too much in front (sheepskin noseband attached tomorrow to help him concentrate more) but aside from Dynaste he would compare very favourably with these on hurdles ratings. Joe Tizzard will be looking to deliver him much later tomorrow.

I’ve followed him for a while and don’t think the heavy ground he’s raced on recently is what he really wants. First time up this season he jumped beautifully here and think that quality will be enhanced on better ground here.

It could well be heart in mouth with him on the running and feel his place chance is much better than his win odds comparatively. I’ll suggest him ew but would be much more interested in backing him without the fav if the price was right

recommendation

0.75 pts ew Third Intention @16/1 or better (1/4 123)

1.5 pts ew Third Intention @10/1 or better if available ‘without the fav’ – we probably won’t see this market until tomorrow morning however so it’s wait in hope for this price right now

2.05 Pertemps Final

This should be a very competitive handicap but market is dominated by Sam Winner and Shutthefrontdoor. They could both be well ahead of their marks (particularly the former who some have suggested could be 2 stone ahead!). I just can’t bring myself to play at the odds they are in such a competitive race though I wouldnt be at all surprised to see either win.

I’m going for the place angle instead by suggesting Stonemaster who  has run well twice at this course including a running on 6th in the shorter Coral Cup this year. He’s been rated higher in the past and has slipped to a workable mark. Davy Russell now rides. First 5 is necessary for this bet and again I would be tempted to bet without the fav (if the fav is Sam Winner)

Recommendation : 0.75 pts ew Stonemaster @20/1 or better  1/4 12345

also 1 pts ew if available ‘without Sam Winner’ @ 16/1 or better (with 1/4 1234)

* I will be looking to back an ew double on the two ‘without fav’ suggestions if prices and place terms are acceptable

2.40 Ryanair Chase

I’ve often struggled with this race and nothing stands out again. First Lieutenant seems to have been trained with a different race in mind all season and I am far convinced that dropping him in trip is now the right step for him after that preparation.

Cue Card on the other hand is better at shorter distances for me and it’s going to be difficult for him to dominate and then hold off all challengers up the hill here I think (Albertas Run will likely want to do the same)

Last year’s winner Riverside Theatre has never liked this course for me (despite that win) and just hasn’t done enough this year

If I had to pick one it would be Champion Court ew as he never runs a bad race here. But I don’t think there’s enough in his price to put him up as a recommendation

3.20 World Hurdle

I’m just going to concentrate on the horse I think will take all of the beating here – Reve De Sivola.

I’ve seen so much rubbish written about him recently to suggest he needs it really soft. When he was second in the Neptune Novices in the past the ground was good and it didn’t affect him then (Peddlers Cross – not the same horse since beat him then and he had performers like subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage and Finians Rainbow behind him)

He is true stayer (unlike many of these) and is just able to cope with soft ground as well.

I’ve been a big follower of Oscar Whiskey in the past but he’s run twice at the trip and both times had some sort of excuse for being beaten. He was beaten narrowly by Reve last time but it should also be noted that Reve did pull for his head in the early stages.

This does remind me of the Crimson Embers – Hill of Slane clashes of many years gone by when the stronger stayer (Crimson) would invariably prevail.

I can’t see it being a slow pace and with that think that Reve De Sivola won’t be out of the frame and he rates as one of the better bets this week

Recommendation: 2pts ew Reve De Sivola @9/2 or better (1/4 123) – be sure to take a firm who do Best Odds Guaranteed as can see the ‘only like soft’ theory coming to the fore again

4.0 Byrne Group Plate

A really difficult handicap. The favourite Ballynagour has been raised 20lb for his last win but is priced as if he has another 10-15 lbs left to play with. He supposedly is susceptibale to breaking blood vessels also so doesnt appeal at restrictive odds.

I need to get a decent price in a race like this so will throw in three previous course winners for small ew bets

0.25 pts ew each ZAYNAR, BLESSTHEWINGS, FINGERONTHEPULSE all at 33/1 or better (alas only Skybet offer 1st 5 at time of writing)

* be warned that Zaynar definitely has two ways of running these days but he is a former Triumph Hurdle winner and the ability is definitely there when he wants to use it – funnily enough when he won that event he beat Walkon (reopposes here) and Reve De Sivola !

4.40 Kim Muir

Another tough handicap were I feel the favourite, Super Duty, has just got too short at around 5/1.

Two of have run well at thoe course in the past and that have quite eyecatching jockey bookings here will do for me. Galaxy Rock is previous course winner and placed in this event – the better ground will be just what he needed -a nd the booking of JT Macnamara is noteworthy. Chartreux has the services of talented Jamie Codd and could well be starting to rekindle the promise he once showed in the David Pipe yard (placed here in quite a hot 3ml hudle a couple of seasons back). 1st 5 places are possible to get with a couple of firms here

0.75 pts ew Galaxy Rock @14/1 or better (1/4 12345)

0.5 pts ew Chartreux @16/1 or better (1/4 12345)

The final race is the rescheduled Cross Country Chase which was covered in the Day 1 blog

Thanks for reading and good luck, Paul

A good start to day 1 with Champagne Fever doing the business in the first and two places in the JLT for my recommendations.

The ground continues to perplex and despite all previous indications of a possible bog it seems we have close to good to soft (maybe marginally better ground on the hurdles course than the chase course)

And so to the second day:

1.30 National Hunt Chase

Struggling to find much in the way of value here. Irish raider Back in Focus has the best form and is the one to beat. I can’t back him at 3/1 though with no course form and maybe the ground is not soft enough for him?

I can see Godsmejudge‘s jumping putting a lot on these under pressure but 7/1 also appears a tad skinny on what he has achieved. Buddy Bolero appears way underpriced on his form so far and although much has been made of Rival d’Estruval‘s jockey booking for many weeks I dont think his form warrants his price also.

Hawkes Point appears one who may improve for the step up in trip but I primarily look for previous course form here and only two that spring to mind for that would be Highland Lodge and Rose of the Moon.

Highland Lodge looked as if something wrong with him last time and I don’t want to back anything from his stable now with poor recent form (and a disappointing effort from Kentford Grey lady today)

Therefore the only recommendation I have is Rose of the Moon. The form is pretty hit and miss but there are some decent efforts in the past at Cheltenham and the similarly undulating Cheltenham. This one has often appeared as a thorough stayer.

Recommendation :0.5 pts ew Rose of the Moon @20/1

*Weds am update – this one is Pricewise selection in Racing Post so the better prices have evaporated – I wouldn’t be inclined to back at any less than 16/1

2.05 Neptune Novices Hurdle

Apologies to Rule the World and Chatterbox but I think this concerns the top 3 in the market.

Pont Alexandre is just too short on what he has achieved and his price is all about potential (and form of stable following 3 winners on Tuesday)

Taquin Du Seuil has some quality form on soft ground. Slightly quicker ground here and the fact he has no course form put me off picking him.

The New One for me here. There have been some doubts about the stable’s well being recently but Ackertac nearly won the last on Tuesday which I hope will dispel that

I can’t see him out of the frame and think his last run, despite getting beaten, was a top notch effort nonetheless against a quality opponent

Recommendation

2pts ew The New One 5/1 (1/4 odds 123)

2.40 RSA Chase

My ante post book is firmly with Unioniste and Houblon Des Obeaux here. Would I back Unioniste at 4/1 now – probably no as that’s about right now. There’s still a pocket of 12/1 out there on the latter though who is a tough customer and was placed at the Festival last year. That would be my only suggestion here.

Boston Bob hits too many flat spots for me, Hadrians Approach doesnt jump well enough and I think Goulanes should be in the four mile race. Lyreen Legend appears best of the Irish

Recommendation; 1pt ew Houblon des Obeaux 12/1 (1/4 123)

3.20 Champion Chase

This is likely to be a masterclass for Sprinter Sacre who is just unbackable unless you managed to get some of Coral’s even money offer. I hope Mail de Bievre is able to give him some competition and to justify Tom George’s bold decision to supplement him. With only 7 runners, each way betting against the fav has been killed though

No Bet

4.00 Coral Cup

I did an antepost preview of this on http://www.cheltenhamtips.co.uk and stick with my recommendations there of Meister Eckhart and Orsippus (1/4 odds 12345 now available and some 50/1 also on the latter).

I will throw in Crack Away Jack at 33/1. He doesnt fit any weight stats for this race but the talent that once made him a fancy for the Champion Hurdle isn’t completely lost and I can see this race suiting him and despite his high weight his mark has dropped nicely.

1pt ew Meister Eckhart 16/1

0.5 pts ew Orsippus 50/1

0.5 pts ew Crack Away Jack 33/1

(take 1/4 12345 on all of them)

ADDENDUM ; Big Easy added 0.5 pts ew at 50/1 – the race tends to favour lower weights and Philip Hobbs has done well with his runners in this race in the past

4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle

A lot of underpriced ex French types here. Megalypos should have finished 2nd in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow but as usual that was run in fairly desperate ground and might be a bit misleading.

It’s always been worth following the top rated flat horse in this race but this year they are all much of a muchness and many rated in the mid 80s

I’ll take two of these against the field.

Bordoni seems to have improved with his racing and while I was concerned about slow ground for this one my fears have been allayed a bit today. He’s a a quick accurate jumper which should stand him in good stead and stayed well on the flat

Totalize has also impressed with his jumping technique and what is more to his credit is that he has shown decent form despite pulling very badly in all his races so far. Calculated Risk has since boosted the form of his latest success and I fancy there could be plenty of improvement if he can settle in a strongly run race. His adept trainer has narrowly missed on some good prizes at this course with the same owner’s Bothy in the past.

1pt ew Bordoni 11/1 (1/4 1234)

1 pt ew Totalize 16/1 (1/4 1234)

*Weds am update – Bordoni another to fall under the Pricewise hammer. 10/1 is the lowest I would take

5.15 Champion Bumper

Will be run at a pace unlike any other bumper all year – a total guess up for me so can’t recommend anything. (For those who do have some idea or who can’t resist a bet take note that some firms are paying first 4 and others only first 3)

Weds am – small ew added( 0.25 pts) on Caledonia @66/1 1/4 1234. His half brother De Soto was second in this race and had a preference for better ground.its a longshot but I doubt Jim Goldie would come all the way down from Scotland just for the scenery! Milo Man annd Sizing Tennessee both around 20/1 marks also of interest

Thanks for reading and good luck whatever you back

Paul

The roar goes up at 1.30 pm when the first race is under way but even now we are still guessing a bit as to what the ground will be.
Soft ground but just how soft – not even clerk of the course Simon Claisse can tell us judged from this quote today :
“I think The Festival should start with soft going tomorrow, but I am guessing because I won’t know until the frost covers are lifted and that process will start as late as possible tomorrow – 10am.
We’ve been getting used to much better conditions for the Festival in recent years and I just hope the ground is somewhat better than we saw at Sandown on Saturday!
Until we’ve seen some action on day 1 however I’m reluctant to go overboard with confidence on any selections

130 – Supreme Novice Hurdle

There’s only one stop for value seekers on this race with Hills offering 1/4 odds 12345 and Best Odds Guaranteed. With only 12 runners (and 2 of them with no chance) we’ll struggle to see the likes of this at any time during the year.

My Tent or Yours is definitely the form pick but I won’t be taking 2/1 given all his form is on flat tracks and he should get a strongly run race here to test his slightly suspect stamina.

Jezki didn’t get up the hill well enough here last year to tempt me and Un Atout is just a complete dark horse that owes his price to his connections.

Therefore I look to proven course form with Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets for any value here. The former is likely to put them to the sword early here to play to his strengths and explot the weaknesses of others. Dodging Bullets will finally get a strong pace that he desperately needs but the softer it is the more his chance could lessen.

Would recommend backing both with Hills ew on their special terms (every chance SP will be greater on both I think if professional money comes for the top 3 in the betting)

2.05 Arkle Trophy

Shades of the 1984 renewal here (Bobsline v Noddys Ryde) with Simonsig v Overturn.

Its a race to watch and not to bet for me. Many seem to expect Simonsig to win without coming off the bridle it seems as the ground should favour him more.

Overturn ran a fine race in the Chester Cup on ground that was probably worse than he’ll get here however and he’ll do everything to get the fav off the bridle here. Then comes the crunch question as to what Simonsig will find off it! – the only time we will have seen this since he didn’t find as much as expected against Fingal Bay as a novice hurdler.

I’m not totally convinced it’s a 2 horse race if Arvika Ligeonniere can be settled as he was when he ran here in the Albert Bartlett – if he tries to take Overturn on however it should be to the favs advantage.

7 runners has killed the ‘filthy ew’ angle for the race also

No Bet

2.40 JLT Hcap Chase

A strong stats race in the past. Avoid anything aged over 10 – look for past course form – and lower weights have a big sway. Anything rated over 143 you can almost bin right away on past evidence and the only horse to win with over 11st in recent times was Bensalem with 11st 2lb

Coming out well on these criteria I have Fruity O’Rooney, Knockara Beau and White Star Line. The first two like to be in the van and along with the likes of Midnight Chase and Hey Big Spender could make this a severe stamina test. White Star Line would look much better if you could ignore some very lack lustre performances on this track since his 2nd place in the novices hcap last year ( and not sure the softer ground is what he wants)

I think both Fruity O’Rooney and Knockara Beau have excellent chances if they don’t try to cut one another’s throats.

Of the rags, Tullamore Dew has been placed at the Festival twice before and could well run into a place at 33/1 for bigger price seekers (though his age is against him for winning on stats basis)

Recommendations (definitely go for for firms paying 1/4 12345)

1pt ew Fruity O’Rooney 10/1 or better

1pt ew Knockara Beau 16/1

0.5 pts ew Tullamore Dew 33/1

3.20 Champion Hurdle

The centrepiece of day 1 and it’s a quandary trying to work out how it will be run. They probably all want a decent pace but with no Overturn, Celestial Halo or Osana to help them this year who will make it?

My ante-post loyalties lie with Zarkandar but rather fear he may have to take on the front runners role. Hopefully Rock on Ruby and Countrywide Flame may share the load to ensure it doesnt resemble a French Group race!

I cant recommend anything at current odds – the only one I think is priced up incorrectly is Cinders and Ashes who should be at least double his current price on this going!

Think this race may well be won by which jockey gives his mount the most inspired ride on the day (though if gun to my head I think circumstances might suit Hurricane Fly most)

4.00 Cross Country Chase

Not a favourite of mine since watching the race in 2012 where they dawdle for all but the last few furlongs and it developed into a very messy sprint.

Previous experience in these Cross Country events has been vital in the past so I am going totally against the grain in suggesting Any Currency for anyone who really wants an interest. He loves the normal course here and local trainer Martin Keighley has schooled him over the fences recently (said to have adapted to them very well) so he isnt the total beginner. Very small stakes though!

4.40 Mares Hurdle

A Quevega benefit for the last 4 years – they tried to beat her by having no pace last year but that didnt work. Hopefully it’s run sensibly this year and Kentford Grey Lady should be suited best of the ew contenders. Couldn’t put anyone off Swing Bowler or Alasi to grab a place but there was 1/4 1234 available on this race without the fav last year and we could have done with that again.

5.15 Rewards4Racing Novices Handicap

I previewed this on http://www.cheltenhamtips.co.uk before weights came out and very happy to see my 16/1 selection The Druids Nephew still to the fore. He’s now 8/1 but still appeals most of those at the front of the market as I feel his mark is very lenient. I don’t think Colour Squadron is on as good a mark as others do and the ground has gone against Carlito Brigante.

Fourjacks and Ohio Gold are two outsiders I can see running better than their 25/1 quotes

Thanks for reading and best of luck to all!

Paul

Greetings all and welcome to my all singing all dancing site where I’m going to write my musings on the Cheltenham Festival this year and beyond!

A bit of a trial posting today just to kick things off but will try to give my thoughts on every race on the previous evening next week

Comments welcome at all times

Good luck with whatever you back next week!

Paul

(@Senor_Moodoir)