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Cheltenham 2013 – Day 3

13 Mar

Some mixed fortunes on Day 2. The New One did the job nicely for Tuesday’s recommendations and Meister Eckhart could have done without his stablemate taking part after a bold effort to finish second. Unfortunately, Totalize and Big Easy were just one place away from getting place returns. Houblon Des Obeaux just didn’t jump well enough to figure in the finish of the RSA.

Today will be remembered most for the brilliance of Sprinter Sacre though

And so to Day 3:

1.30 Jewson Chase

Dynaste is the rightful fav here and I think connections made the right choice coming to this race rather than the RSA over an extra half mile. His form is the best of these but there is a niggling doubt that his best performances have come at earlier times in the year before. That’s just what sways me from touching him at odds around 13/8.

Irish novice form was well advertised today in the NH Chase and the RSA. Texas Jack would have been god enough to be placed at least in the RSA on his last run but I think this race is stronger. Aupcharlie worries me with both his jumping and he doesn’t seem to find a lot off the bridle.

Module is an interesting contender but I feel he is underpriced on what he’s achieved.

Captain Conan was lucky to win at Sandown last time and I have reservations about the trip and if the ground will be soft enough for him.

It’s the horse who should have beat Captain Conan last time that interests me most here – Third Intention. True he doesn’t find too much in front (sheepskin noseband attached tomorrow to help him concentrate more) but aside from Dynaste he would compare very favourably with these on hurdles ratings. Joe Tizzard will be looking to deliver him much later tomorrow.

I’ve followed him for a while and don’t think the heavy ground he’s raced on recently is what he really wants. First time up this season he jumped beautifully here and think that quality will be enhanced on better ground here.

It could well be heart in mouth with him on the running and feel his place chance is much better than his win odds comparatively. I’ll suggest him ew but would be much more interested in backing him without the fav if the price was right

recommendation

0.75 pts ew Third Intention @16/1 or better (1/4 123)

1.5 pts ew Third Intention @10/1 or better if available ‘without the fav’ – we probably won’t see this market until tomorrow morning however so it’s wait in hope for this price right now

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2.05 Pertemps Final

This should be a very competitive handicap but market is dominated by Sam Winner and Shutthefrontdoor. They could both be well ahead of their marks (particularly the former who some have suggested could be 2 stone ahead!). I just can’t bring myself to play at the odds they are in such a competitive race though I wouldnt be at all surprised to see either win.

I’m going for the place angle instead by suggesting Stonemaster who  has run well twice at this course including a running on 6th in the shorter Coral Cup this year. He’s been rated higher in the past and has slipped to a workable mark. Davy Russell now rides. First 5 is necessary for this bet and again I would be tempted to bet without the fav (if the fav is Sam Winner)

Recommendation : 0.75 pts ew Stonemaster @20/1 or better  1/4 12345

also 1 pts ew if available ‘without Sam Winner’ @ 16/1 or better (with 1/4 1234)

* I will be looking to back an ew double on the two ‘without fav’ suggestions if prices and place terms are acceptable

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2.40 Ryanair Chase

I’ve often struggled with this race and nothing stands out again. First Lieutenant seems to have been trained with a different race in mind all season and I am far convinced that dropping him in trip is now the right step for him after that preparation.

Cue Card on the other hand is better at shorter distances for me and it’s going to be difficult for him to dominate and then hold off all challengers up the hill here I think (Albertas Run will likely want to do the same)

Last year’s winner Riverside Theatre has never liked this course for me (despite that win) and just hasn’t done enough this year

If I had to pick one it would be Champion Court ew as he never runs a bad race here. But I don’t think there’s enough in his price to put him up as a recommendation

 

3.20 World Hurdle

I’m just going to concentrate on the horse I think will take all of the beating here – Reve De Sivola.

I’ve seen so much rubbish written about him recently to suggest he needs it really soft. When he was second in the Neptune Novices in the past the ground was good and it didn’t affect him then (Peddlers Cross – not the same horse since beat him then and he had performers like subsequent Ascot Gold Cup winner Rite of Passage and Finians Rainbow behind him)

He is true stayer (unlike many of these) and is just able to cope with soft ground as well.

I’ve been a big follower of Oscar Whiskey in the past but he’s run twice at the trip and both times had some sort of excuse for being beaten. He was beaten narrowly by Reve last time but it should also be noted that Reve did pull for his head in the early stages.

This does remind me of the Crimson Embers – Hill of Slane clashes of many years gone by when the stronger stayer (Crimson) would invariably prevail.

I can’t see it being a slow pace and with that think that Reve De Sivola won’t be out of the frame and he rates as one of the better bets this week

Recommendation: 2pts ew Reve De Sivola @9/2 or better (1/4 123) – be sure to take a firm who do Best Odds Guaranteed as can see the ‘only like soft’ theory coming to the fore again

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4.0 Byrne Group Plate

A really difficult handicap. The favourite Ballynagour has been raised 20lb for his last win but is priced as if he has another 10-15 lbs left to play with. He supposedly is susceptibale to breaking blood vessels also so doesnt appeal at restrictive odds.

I need to get a decent price in a race like this so will throw in three previous course winners for small ew bets

0.25 pts ew each ZAYNAR, BLESSTHEWINGS, FINGERONTHEPULSE all at 33/1 or better (alas only Skybet offer 1st 5 at time of writing)

* be warned that Zaynar definitely has two ways of running these days but he is a former Triumph Hurdle winner and the ability is definitely there when he wants to use it – funnily enough when he won that event he beat Walkon (reopposes here) and Reve De Sivola !

4.40 Kim Muir

Another tough handicap were I feel the favourite, Super Duty, has just got too short at around 5/1.

Two of have run well at thoe course in the past and that have quite eyecatching jockey bookings here will do for me. Galaxy Rock is previous course winner and placed in this event – the better ground will be just what he needed -a nd the booking of JT Macnamara is noteworthy. Chartreux has the services of talented Jamie Codd and could well be starting to rekindle the promise he once showed in the David Pipe yard (placed here in quite a hot 3ml hudle a couple of seasons back). 1st 5 places are possible to get with a couple of firms here

0.75 pts ew Galaxy Rock @14/1 or better (1/4 12345)

0.5 pts ew Chartreux @16/1 or better (1/4 12345)

 

The final race is the rescheduled Cross Country Chase which was covered in the Day 1 blog

 

Thanks for reading and good luck, Paul

 
1 Comment

Posted by on March 13, 2013 in Uncategorized

 

One response to “Cheltenham 2013 – Day 3

  1. pope argy 3rd

    March 13, 2013 at 7:46 pm

    Poquelin for me in the Plate, good luck

     

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