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Aintree results and Guineas Prospects

07 Apr

Fences are there to be jumped and sadly the main hope for this year’s big race ended up on the floor at Aintree’s biggest fence, The Chair. I hope Teaforthree is back next year and ridden a bit more positively again – he just didnt seem to be jumping with his usual elan after being kept back from the front of the race (presumably in an effort to help him get home).

Pineau De Re was a comfortable winner in the end and really wasn’t far off meeting the stats criteria. If I had counted the Ulster Grand national as a top staying chase like the English. Scottish and Welsh versions he would have done. A lesson learn there but this game is all about building on mistakes like that.

Ma Filleule won the Topham so impressively on Friday that many will be thinking of her already for next year’s National but beware. She could end up being handicapped out of the race after demolising her opponents off 150. The Gold Cup is an equally attainable target based on that run and I wouldnt put anyone off an early interest there at 33/1 – she is only 6 and could have further improvement to come! Her price should certainly be closer than it is compared to Holywell right now

Aintree results below:

THURS stakes profit/loss
0,5 pts ew HAWK HIGH @14/1 lost 1 -1
2pts ew CLARET CLOAK @9/2 3rd 4 0,25
1pt ew ANY GIVEN DAY @20/1 lost 2 -2
1pt ew SPIRIT OF SHANKLY @14/1 lost 2 -2
FRI
1pt ew BIG FELLA THANKS @16/1 lost 2 -2
1pt ew GIORGIO QUERCUS @25/1 fell 2 -2
1pt ew RACING PULSE @14/1 lost 2 -2
0,5 pts ew PORT MELON @25/1 lost 1 -1
1,5 pts ew THE GOVANESS @10/1 Lost (4th) 3 -3
SAT
1pt win SIMPLY NED @14/1 2nd 1 -1
2,5pts ew TEAFORTHREE @10/1 fell 5 -5
0,75pts ew VINTAGE STAR @ lost 1,5 -1,5
1pt ew SOLL @50/1 NR 2 0
1,5 pts SWING BILL @4/1 to finish top 10 9th 1,5 6
0,5 pts ew KASHMIR PEAK @20/1 lost 1 -1
0,5 pts ew SCOTS GAELIC @20/1 lost 1 -1

TOTALS 32 pts staked  -18,25pts loss on week

Adding this to Cheltenham selections the blog is now running on a 21.62 pt profit this year (from 98.5 pts staked – a 21.9% return)

So a disappointing week but still nicely ahead on the year

I tend to wind down my Jump racing interests after Aintree has finished and the flat will gradually take over – November is when it all starts again over the fences properly for me

Blog posting will be less frequent as my time is taken up more with the main summer tennis events and so most of my thoughts will be found on Twitter

Here’s a few horses I am looking to see again in coming weeks with the 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas in mind

No 2yo impressed me more than Berkshire‘s last to first sweep in the Chesham at Royal Ascot. The form of that race worked out superbly and he sort of reminded me of another old favourite, Chief Singer, at the time.

He reappeared once after that at the back end of the season and was much less impressive but the overall feeling was that he was just a baby last year and this year is what it is all about.

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He should be back at Newbury this Saturday – I wouldnt be expecting him to be fully tuned up for that and a small field may not suit. As long as he runs well, I can only see him improving quite a bit more in the Guineas where the race should suit him better

In opposition on Saturday could be Be Ready, the other 2yo that greatly impressed me last year when winning at Doncaster in September. He hasn’t been seen since then and the stable can’t seem to decide at the moment if he is a Guineas or a Derby horse. saturday should tell us more but I’d be disappointed if he isnt a Group winner in waiting.

Australia seems a crazy price in the Guineas and that’s all about O’Brien stable hype – we’ve been there before and seen as many flops as successes. Toormore is the one with solid form who they should all be more wary of if he has trained on

For the fillies, Ihtimal ran behind Berkshire in the Chesham and continued to progress from there. The worry was that being quite small she wouldnt train on but she has been impressive in Dubai already this year and that could well give her an edge this early in the year. She is top of my shortlist for that race right now

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Rizeena may well be back this weekend and did very little wrong last year, proving that a mile was not too far for her when beaten by the ill fated Chriselliam on her final start (Ihtimal 3rd but not the best of rides for me there considering she had proven stamina). Her trainer knows how to win this race and she is the main danger for me.

The ‘dark one’ I have in mind for this race but maybe moreso for the season ahead is Amazing Maria. She took time to find her form in her first two races but then showed her true potential with two highly impressive victories at Goodwood – dominating from the front and using an impressive stride to have rivals in toruble a long way out. She hasn’t faced the class of opponents that Ihtimal and Rizeena has but is one to ignore at your peril

No recommendations on these – they are just ones I’d like to keep on my side and have high hopes for in the coming months – hopefully there’s a Guineas winner (or two!) listed in there

 

Thanks for reading once more

 

Paul

 
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Posted by on April 7, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Aintree day 3 – Grand National Day

04 Apr

A blank day for the blog on Friday unless anyone managed to get the first 4 bet on The Govaness in the last (with a firm that I cannot get a bet on personally so won’t include for resulting purposes) – she looked to come with a winning run but the combination of her penalty and losing ground throughout on the outside didn’t help close home. So unless anyone managed to avail themselves of that offer we end up with a 10 pt loss on the day.
Anyone who followed 3 mile handicap chase form at Cheltenham might have had a field day with the 1-2 from there, Holywell and Ma Filleule, both running out convincing winners. Neither would look out of place in next season’s Gold Cup on their performances today.

So now we come to Saturday with the Grand National the showpiece on the card:

1.30 Mersey Novices Hurdle
Odds here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/13:30/winner
surprisingly not many firms offering an enhanced ¼ odds a place on this race at time of posting

Cheltenham Supreme Novice hurdle form was highly advertised by Josses Hill and Sgt Reckless today and Wilde Blue Yonder represents the best of that here. He ran a solid race there and may well have won two others earlier in the year but for last fence falls. Now he has a clean round behind him, it has to be hoped he can go on from that and the extra half mile could bring some further improvement.
Chief threat for me is Oscar Hoof, who hasn’t been running at such a high level but impressed greatly when winning at Kempton last time – seeing off a strong travelling challenger in great style . It’s notable that Barry Geraghty picks him instead of Volnay De Thaix.
Not quite enough value in the market to tempt me in right now

2.00 Maghull Novices Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/14:05/winner

The Aintree version of Cheltenham’s Arkle is a tight looking race where the isn’t much between the principals.
Trifolium came out best in the Arkle but Balder Success and Hinterland both dodged that race (the latter having an unfortunate unseat in the Champion Chase instead)
Next Sensation and Simply Ned are very progressive types who have come up through handicaps and deserve their chance at this level. The former is an exciting front runner who should be better suited to this track than at Cheltenham.
Simply Ned has improved all through the season and could be the sort who will prosper with the gallop that will be set here. He is the selection on the basis that I don’t think his level of form is too dissimilar to his main rivals – but his price compared to them is much too high. It’s no shock he missed Cheltenham – the Richards stable have always had greater success at this course

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Recommendation
1pt win Simply Ned 14/1 (365, Totesport, Betfred)

2.50 Silver Cross Stayers Hurdle
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/14:50/winner

Aintree version of the World Hurdle sees At Fishers Cross (3rd in that) leading the market.
He is much the likeliest winner for me but I can see why Corals look to want to take him on at 15/8.
I’m not sure where the pace will come from in this race so it could be a muddling affair. He has had jumping problems in the past but it was a much cleaner display at Cheltenham where he was well beaten by two hugely talented rivals – but was clearly ahead of the rest.
I think he could be the leading 3 mile hurdler next year if his jumping is sharpened as so many of his rivals may be changing trip or going chasing.
It’s not a betting race on this occasion for me

 

3.30 Hcap Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/15:25/winner

No surprise to see Victor Hewgo favourite here – his form is closely tied in with Holywell and Western Warhorse who have boosted it considerably since. He may be a bit flattered by some of this but is clearly the one to beat. This is a competitive race though and odds are quite short around 7/2
Unioniste represents last seasons novice chase crop which doesn’t look bad now after recent performances of Lord Windermere and Boston Bob. His weight could be prohibitive here though,
The interesting one lower down the handicap is Saint Are, who has an excellent record at this meeting, winning twice at the Mildmay course. He runs off an 8lb lower mark than when successful in this race in 2012 and I would be inclined to forgive his pulled up effort at Cheltenham last time – a course he has never liked
9/1 available there now and if he gets to a double figure price I might have to play

 

4.15 Crabbies Grand National
The highlight of the meeting and here are the latest odds:
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/16:15/winner

I covered the race more thoroughly when the 5 day decs came out on Monday here : https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2014/03/31/grand-national-2014/

This really is a race to hunt for value, particularly on each way betting with bookmakers falling over themselves to compete for best price and trying to tempt punters in with 5 or even 6 places. This really isn’t profitable for them to do so take advantage if you can get good win odds and extra places – its often going to be a loss leader for companies who hope to bring in new customers through the year in what is one of their biggest ‘shop windows’.
Make sure you take a price – most firms wil offer best odds guaranteed in case the SP is bigger – but the likelihood is that prices will shorten once on course bookmakers control the odds. So bet early take the price and get the value while it’s there!

The expected rain hasn’t really materialised since then so that’s against two stats picks – Hawkes Point and Mountainous
This leaves old Welsh National protagonists, Teaforthree and Monbeg Dude as the chief picks but on a basis of value I prefer the former for reasons stated in that piece, (Monbeg’s rider Paul Carberry will have to pass the doctor in the morning to ride as well after a fall in the Topham today). I think he should be more like 6/1 for the race but 10/1 is being pushed out there again this evening

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I can understand why money has come for The Package today after he chased home today’s winners, Holywell and Ma Filleule last time at Cheltenham. That was a fairly distant third though and I would rather judge him on the horse that finished around him than the two who were clearly dominant. When he was 33/1 he was interesting but quotes of less than 20/1 for ahorse who didn’t really seem to enjoy the fences on his previous try here aren’t particularly tempting)

 

So I’ll be sticking with my previous recommendations here
2.5 pts ew Teaforthree (now possible to get 10/1 ¼ 123456! with BetVictor – best win odds and best place odds is hard to knock)
0.75 pts ew Vintage Star 66/1 now available with some firms offering extra places)
(1pt ew Soll was advised in January but he was balloted out of the race which means we get money back on that bet)
*MORNING UPDATE – Extra Recomemndation *
1.5pts Swing Bill @4/1 to finish in first 10 – this market only offered on William Hill and the Betfair Exchange right now. In 6 attempts over the course, this old veteran has jumped round every time and the only time he didnt complete was a pulling up on very heavy ground in the Becher Chase. He’s probably one of the safest conveyances in the race and this price seems based on his win price rather than his course record. His November run over the course showed he has some zest for the course still and although competing for places is unlikely a top 10 finish certainly is a good possibility

 

 

5.10 Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
Awaiting odds from some companies here who haven’t joined the party yet so will post more on this either later tonight or tomorrow morning
MORNING UPDATE
A competitive event but I’m taken by the two John Quinn runners (he won the race last year with Cockney Sparrow) – the favourite seems a bit too short
RECOMMENDATIONS
0.5 pts ew each Kashmir Peak and Scots Gaelic – take 20/1 where available
Ignore Kashmir Peak’s Cheltenham run – he doesnt like the course and needs a flat track and reasonable ground – well weighted on his juvenile form last year. Scots Gaelic looked an improved perform,er last time and with Dean Pratt’s useful 7lb claim he comes here effectively on the same mark as he had then

 

 

5.45 Bumper
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-05-aintree/17:45/winner

This race has thrown up some quality performers in the past and can rival Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper in terms of class.
The New One and My Tent of Yours were the 1-2 in 2012 and Tidal Bay showed a glimpse of what was to come when 2nd at 66/1 in 2006.
No bets here. I’m hoping to see an improved performance from Our Kaempfer who ran far too free in the Cheltenham bumper – jockey bookings appear to suggest he is the stable’s second string though. It seems like Alan King prefers to run his best young horses in the bumpers at this meeting rather than at Cheltenham. He won the mares race yesterday so the valu pick for me would be McCabe Creek around the 20/1 mark. I don’t think he is necessarily the stable’s second string – Wayne Hutchinson has a good association with the owners horses in the past. He looked a good prospect first time up chasing home Puisque Tu Pars and reopposes here. Better ground should suit and King seldom has them ready first time up so we can expect to see some improvement

 

 

Thanks for reading once more

Have a great National day whatever you back!

Paul

 
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Posted by on April 4, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Aintree 2014 – day 2

03 Apr

Thursday’s blog selections saw Claret Cloak come closest in 3rd – Noel Fehily looked to be judging the race perfectly but weight probably just told close home. Warne came close to being a bet but the rain didn’t come and I held back a little there – his success just proves what an asset a quality amateur rider is in such a race
So the blog is running at a 4.75 pt loss on the meeting so far

Onto Friday’s card:

2.00 Novice Hurdle
Prices are here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/14:00/winner
Cheltenham Supreme novice form is represented here by the second, Josses Hill (should be suited more by this course) and the strong finishing fourth, Sgt Reckless. Against them we have two impressive handicap winners in Baltimore Rock and Art of Payroll – in both cases it’s hard to assess just who far ahead of their marks they were when they won. Amore Alato is consistent and will ensure a decent gallop but has already be shown to be a notch behind the top level. Throw in the classy flat performer, Mijhaar , back on a decent surface (exasperating horse to follow on the flat despite all of his ability though!) and this race is too hard to call for me

NO BET

 

 

2.30 Mildmay Novice Chase
Pricelists: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/14:30/winner

O’Faolains Boy was a great result for the blog when winning the RSA at Cheltenham. The way he and Smad Place pulled clear there suggested there were both Gold Cup horses next season and I hope to see him continue in the same vein here. At a price of around 9/4 or 5/2 I won’t be playing though – he owes me nothing and he had a hard enough race there – Barry Geraghty reported afterwards that he ran in snatches and didn’t feel as good as he did at Ascot. I am just a bit mindful that he may need more time to recover from that. Don Cossack fell in that race and Many Clouds was brought down. Many Clouds was behind O’Faolains Boy at Ascot and some will argue that the weight difference here will bring them close. For me though, Many Clouds was clearly second best there and needs softer ground to be seen at his best
Wonderful Charm’s best form comes at shorter trips and would need to see more evidence that this step up is what he needs.
The danger is Holywell, who came good at Cheltenham and Aintree last year and could be in the same vein again now. He travelled well within himself last time when winning a handicap at Cheltenham (looked totally the opposite when needing all of McCoy’s strength to win at Doncater)

An interesting race to watch but NO BET

 

 

3.05 Melling Chase
Latest odds: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/15:05/winner

Ballynagour won a handicap so impressively at Cheltenham that he could easily be up to this higher grade. It was suggested then that he was best when fresh so turning out again after only 3 weeks is a bit mystifying.
Boston Bob looked sure to win the RSA last year until falling and that form looks good now after the winner of that race, Lord Windermere won the Gold Cup! Boston Bob hasn’t really built on that this year though and mixing between chases and hurdles seems to indicate that connections aren’t sure what is best for him now
Module is the solid form horse and the one to beat after his third behind Sire De Grugy at Cheltenham. This is half a mile further but he runs like he should appreciate that. The stable had a winner on Thursday with Parsnip Pete so that augurs well also.
He’s almost a bet at 9/2 but not quite!

 

 

3.40 Topham Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/15:40/winner

The ‘mini’ Grand National isn’t far behind the big race in terms of spectacle. 30 runners compete over the full National course here but it’s significantly shorter trip. With so many runners, luck in running will be necessary here but the two I most like are:
Big Fella Thanks. At the age of 12, he’s plenty old enough for this (an age that isn’t good for stats) but I doubt many will come to this race having the wealth of experience over the track that he does. He should have been in this race when younger but connections tried to persevere with the Grand National. Twice he appeared a likely winner of that only to run out of petrol in the home straight. I hope they haven’t left this too late in life for him but this always looked like the race he was made for

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Giorgio Quercus. Experience over these fences is an asset and this one was performing well in this race last year until being brought down 4 out when still in with every chance. He was brought back at Cheltenham 3 weeks ago and ran a solid 6th despite being a bit fresh early on – he may have finished closer still but for a bad peck at the top of the hill fence. 25/1 looks too big
Recommendations
1pt ew Big Fella Thanks 16/1 – take 16/1 with firms offering ¼ odds 12345
1pt ew Giorgio Quercus 25/1 Boylesports ¼ 12345 (25/1 ¼ 1234 or 20/1 ¼ 12345 are also acceptable)

 

4.15 Sefton Novices Hurdle
Prices; http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/16:15/winner

Cheltenham novice hurdle form doesn’t always work out in this and there have been some big priced winners over the years. My suspicion is that the Albert Bartlett and the Neptune can be a tough test for novices at this stage of their career and the experience isn’t always recovered from by this meeting. Killala Quay represents Neptune form here and while it was a fine run, it could be tough to come back from that and follow up over half a mile further
The favourite here, Seeyouatmidnight, didn’t go to the Festival and has done little wrong this year, rising through the ranks and remaining unbeaten since a 66/1 success at Kelso. He’s a front runner who is tough and hard to pass but runs here on quicker ground than he was winning off over the winter.
On his second win, he accounted for odds on shot Racing Pulse, who is of great interest to me now he gets back on a decent surface. He also missed Cheltenham and comes here a fresh horse. I like his chances here
At big odds, Port Melon also is one to watch. He was going to run at Cheltenham until careering into the rails before the start of the Albert Bartlett and giving Daryl Jacob a long holiday with injury in the process. He should enjoy the ground and the trip and there was enough evidence from his one hurdles start before Christmas to suggest this ex point to pointer has a future at this game
It’s hard to know what to make of Capote who has only beaten 5 fairly ordinary rivals in two hurdle successes

Recommendations
1pt ew Racing Pulse 14/1 (general but look for firms offering ¼ rather than 1/5 odds 123)
0.5 pts ew Port Melon 25/1 (Stan james)

 

 

4.50 Hcap Hurdle
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/16:50/winner
As much as I have looked at this race, nothing is jumping out. Irish raider, Zabana has a progressive profile but the UK handicapper doesn’t seem to have been that lenient with his mark. A wide open race I am happy to leave alone

NO BET

 

 

5.25 Mares Bumper
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-04-aintree/17:25/winner

AP McCoy is an eyecatching booking for Alan Swinbank’s Molly Cat, and he’s a trainer always to be feared in bumpers.
But despite her penalty, The Govaness is the choice. She’s mixed it with the boys earlier in the year and ran very well against them – something that few others can claim in the race. She then followed up in a mares bumper at Cheltenham which I feel could have been stronger than this race.
She’s been kept back since then and looks to have been targeted for this. I think she should be the favourite so will be playing at the odds that are available

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Recommendation
1.5pts ew The Govaness 10/1 (Stan James) or even better 10/1 ¼ 1234 888bet if anyone can get that

Thanks for reading once more and good luck!

Paul

 
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Posted by on April 3, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Aintree meeting 2014 – day 1

02 Apr

The Grand National is the centrepiece of the 3 day Aintree meeting but there is some fine racing to back it up. Thursday’s card has some top notch entries but it’s a shame a few who looked possible to run have dropped out – many of the races have more of a ‘race to watch only’ feel about them now
Ground is currently good or good to soft depending on which track is being run on but there is a need to watch the weather closely – rain clouds seem to be never too far away this week if forecasts are correct
Many runners will come here after a last run at the Cheltenham Festival – many can solidify their reputation here but others will have peaked there and it can prove costly to expect form to always be upheld.
The Mildmay course, on which most races will be run, is a completely different track to Cheltenham – no undulations to deal with and built more for speed. The National course (used for the Foxhunters on Thursday, Topham on Friday and the Grand National on Saturday) is unlike anything else – some will adapt well and others will hate it.

Onto Thursday’s card:

2.00 4yo hurdle
Prices comparisons here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/14:00/winner
The Aintree version of the Triumph hurdle but no Triumph winner (Tiger Roll) attending this year. Guitar Pete is a solid performer who came out best of these here then in 3rd but many will consider Callipto to be an unlucky 4th after Daryl Jacob lost his irons as the race was just heating up. Callipto holds Activial on early season form – but that one skipped Cheltenham purposefully for this and could come here fresher.
Fox Norton was an Ante Post pick for me in the Triumph – he didn’t run in it but his form wasn’t particularly advertised by Broughton and Royal Irish Hussar there
At a bigger price I’m hoping to see another big run from Hawk High who won the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. He did the blog a big favour there and won that race well, being close to the pace throughout and quickening nicely up the hill. As long as the ground doesn’t get too soft I think he’s the type to go on improving and is a touch overpriced here
Hawk High

Recommendation
0.5 pts ew Hawk High 14/1 (Stan James and Coral who both offer ¼ 123)

 

2.30 Betfred Bowl
Prices here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/14:30/winner

I’m one of the original members of the First Lieutenant fan club and he was a successful selection for the blog in this race last year where Menorah and Silviniaco Conti were among his victims. It’s unfortunate he missed this year’s Gold Cup where conditions could have suited him well. Silviniaco Conti finished 4th there but had a hard race and that has to be a concern – when he did win at this meeting as a novice he had missed the festival and came here as a fresh horse.
The danger is Dynaste though, who won the novice race at this meeting last year and comes here after Ryanair Chase success at The Festival
I think First Lieutenant or Dynaste will win but won’t be playing at current odds of 2/1 and 3/1 respectively
NO BET

 

3.05 Aintree Hurdle
Prices: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/15:05/winner

Would have been a lovely race if Annie Power had come over from Ireland but in her absence this does look a penalty kick for The New One – 2/5 isn’t my sort of price though.new one
Could be plenty of competition for second – Rock on Ruby and Grandouet have the best hurdling form from the past but both have been chasing instead this year and that could level the playing field with the others. I have no great view who will come out top for the runner up berth
NO BET

 

3.40 Foxhunters Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/15:40/winner

The first race of the meeting over the classic National fences.
Mossey Joe is well ahead of the field in terms of class and rating and as long as the ground stays good or good to soft it could well be a case of ‘if he jumps round he wins’.
If rain does come Warne becomes a bigger threat. A slightly unlucky 4th in this race last year he now has the services of Sam Waley Cohen on board who has such an excellent record over these fences.
It seems slightly strange to see such a race with ¼ odds 1234 being offered at some firms and there could well be a decent angle with this tomorrow if money comes down for the fav and pushes others out
Cool Friend probably hit the front too soon in the race last year and has performed well at Aintree before – this mare appears most of the big prices
For the moment it’s ‘no bet’ but that may change tomorrow

 

 

4.15 Red Rum Hcap Chase
Prices here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/16:15/winner

Traditionally novices do well in this race and Grand Annual form from Cheltenham is a big influence. Claret Cloak fits both of those stats and although 4 pounds higher than he was there when a close third, he may have been an unlucky loser after a critical blunder 2 fences out . Good or good to soft suits – as does a strong pace – something he should get with the likes of Arnaud and Sew on Target in the field. The race may favour lower weights in the past but I can’t really warm to those at the bottom of the handicap here. Claret Cloak has always looked a classy individual and I believe this course will suit him better than Cheltenham
claretclaok2</a
I’m not keen on Paul Nicholls’ runner Sound Investment here whose mark has risen to 140 after two easy wins in weak races.

Recommendation:
2pts ew Claret Cloak 9/2 (Totesport, Betfred) *9/2 already gone after a few minutes of posting – would take 4/1 also*

 

4.50 Manifesto Chase
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/16:50/winner

Only 5 runners but very competitive. I could make a case for them all.
Oscar Whisky has to come back from a first fence fall at Cheltenham which prevents me following him here. Western Warhorse has to prove his Arkle win was no fluke over half a mile further. Really not sure if a step up in trip is right for Dodging Bullets. Good ground seemed to bring about plenty of improvement in Uxizandre last time – and it probably will in Fox Appeal too.
It all adds up to NO BET

 

 

5.25 3ml hcap hurdle
Latest odds: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-04-03-aintree/17:25/winner

2 against the field here:
Novice and those lower down the weights have a decent record in this race. Spirit of Shankly fits that criteria and seems the sort who will appreacite a step up in trip and some decent ground.
Any Given Day represents a stable that knows all about getting winners at this meeting. He was a failure at chasing and lost his way a bit over hurdles last season after encountering heavy ground. A recent bumper win showed he is no back number yet and his hurdles mark has dropped considerably to an enticing looking 140. The price just looks too big here to ignore
any given day
Recommendations:
1pt ew Any Given Day @20/1 (coral) – but 16/1 will be equally acceptable elsewhere
1pt ew Spirit of Shankly 14/1 (generally available)

 

As usual comments are most welcome
Good luck with whatever you support and thanks for reading
Paul

 
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Posted by on April 2, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Grand National 2014

31 Mar

G National 13
Another year has gone by and National Hunt racing’s greatest spectacle at Aintree racecourse is upon us once more.
With the forecast looking promising we can expect decent ground and a well run race. Anything can happen at the first few fences where the speed can be too much for some to jump accurately and its not until 7 or 8 obstacles have been completed before race riding can start to develop properly. It’s important not to get too far behind too early – midfield with a circuit to go is usually as far as you would want to be behind the leader

I covered much of the race stats in last years blog and as mentioned before there is a good guide to the date here http://www.grandnationalstats.co.uk/

The current runners can be found here http://www.racingpost.com/horses2/cards/card.sd?race_id=576664&r_date=2014-04-05&antepost=Y#raceTabs=lc_

And for up to date odds check here http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner

It’s very important to shop around here for the best value. Standard each way terms for a handicap are ¼ odds 1234 but as this is such a big event many firms will offer five places. BetVictor currently offer ¼ odds 123456. ( the one firm to avoid for each way bets would seem to be RaceBets if they continue to offer a ridiculous 1/5 odds 123!)
The more the number of places that are paid the less the win odds can sometimes be to make up for this concession. If you can get high win odds and extra places it really is the best of both worlds so choose carefully!

Be sure to use Non Runner No bet prior to the final declarations also – if the worst does happen and your horse gets pulled out you will not lose your money then.
The night before the race could also throw up better odds as firms try to push their product – but beware at 8pm on Friday night when Racing Post’s pricewise selection is officially released (its often apparent by market moves whet it will be prior to then) – expect any put up there to be trimmed significantly.
Saturday morning may some further price enhancements for horse not touched by the main tipsters

For stats suffice to say, weight is the one I look to most and I have a big leaning towards anything carrying 11 stone or less. Age and experience come next. 9 to 11 is the preferred age and previous course experience or proven form in similar events is highly desirable

And so onto the runners with my thoughts on most of the contenders (bear in mind that these are the current 5 day declarations and some may drop out before Thursdays’s final declaration stage):

1. TIDAL BAY age 13 weight 11st 10lbs ;trainer Paul Nicholls ;jockey Sam Twiston Davies
It will bring the house down if this popular veteran can triumph but despite the handicapper dropping his mark to 161 there are so many stats for him to defy. The last 13 year old to come close to winning was Aintree stalwart Rondetto in 1969. The last horse to carry this kind of weight to victory was Red Rum in 1977. Added to all of this, the more the ground dries out the less it will suit him and he could find himself outpaced. It’s hard enough to come from way back in this race as his style dictates but he would need some juice in the ground to have his best chance. Too much against him for me to fancy him but would still love to see him do well.Tidal bay
2. LONG RUN 9 11st 9lb; Nicky Henderson ; Mr S Waley Cohen
Another at the top of the weights, Long Run was at his peak as a 6yo when winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. It’s not unusual for French bred chasers to start regressing earlier than others and while retaining plenty of ability he does seem to be going in that direction this season. I think his mark of 160 here is probably about the level he is now so again facing an uphill struggle off such a high weight. On the plus side, his rider has an excellent record in this race – on the downside Long Run has always been prone to miss the odd fence out and he wouldn’t want to do that here
3. HUNT BALL 9 11st 7lb; Nicky Henderson; Andrew Tinkler
If you believe the old adage that two and a half mile chasers are best for the National then you might give him a chance. I don’t believe they are and Hunt Ball only just gets 3 miles on a park course which rules him out for me.
4. TRIOLO D’ALENE 7 11st 6lb; Nicky Henderson; Barry Geraghty
Needs good ground but don’t quite think he has the class to carry this sort of weight here and it’s not ideal to hear he had a breathing problem in his last race. Has winning course form in last years Topham over a shorter trip and also as a 7yo has an awful lot against him on stats – the last one to win was Bogskar in 1940!
5. ROCKY CREEK 8 11st 5lb; Paul Nicholls; Noel Fehily
Has always looked a chaser going places and although he has a high weight there is enough class about him to give him some chance. However at 8 he is probably a year ahead of himself here and with only 7 chase runs under his belt he may be lacking. This wasn’t the plan for him earlier in the year and he seems to be here because he had a hiccup which meant he couldn’t run in the Gold Cup. While he has perfomed well twice this year there is still a suspicion he isn’t quite finishing off his races as well as others. A good jumper I can see him competing and loking dangerous for much of the race and then wilting in the home straight. Not without a chance of top 5/6.
6. QUITO DE LA ROQUE 10 11st 1lbs; Colm Murphy (IRE)
Hasnt shown much this year but has had good performances on Aintree’s regular Mildmay track in the past. A leap of faith required to fancy him here
7. COLBERT STATION 10 11st ; Ted Walsh (IRE)
One of the possible mounts for AP Mc Coy – was well fancied last year but never got involved before unseating his rider. 2lb higher mark here considering he hasn’t done much since is hardly appealing
8. WALKON 9 11st; Alan King; Wayne Hutchinson
Second to Triolo d’Alene in the Topham last year he isn’t attractively handicapped on a 5lb higher mark here. His one attempt at a National –the Scottish version ended in him being pulled up and I find little to recommend his chance here
9. BALTHAZAR KING 10 10st 13lb; Philip Hobbs; Richard Johnson
Terrific performer in Cross Country event s at Cheltenham. The fences may be similar there and he was fancied on back of that in last year’s race. The pace of this race is so different though and Balthazar was burnt out before the race began in earnest. Similar likely again – though if the ground is better than last year’s good to soft he could stick around a bit longer. A safe jumper who would be expected to complete at least
10. WAYWARD PRINCE 10 10st 13lbs; Hilary Parrott; Jack Doyle
A course winner twice on the Mildmay track, Wayward Price seems to save his best for his reappearance runs nowadays. Likely to find the pace of the race I problem I feel
11. MR MOONSHINE 10 10st 12lbs; Sue Smith; Ryan Mania
Same connections as last years winner, Auroras Encore here.Mr Moonshine comes here under a carrer highest mark. He ran well over the course to be third in December but has gone up 16lbs since. The handicapper would appear to have his measure.
12. TEAFORTHREE 10 10st 12lbs; Rebecca Curtis; Nick Schofield
Already discussed and selected as an Ante Post bet in my previous blog posting (10/1 now all gone at time of writing this) there are many positives here. His front running style may make him susceptible to a strong finisher but he could have ground most into submission by then. Running at Cheltenham Festival prior tho thsi can be a negative but I very much saw his run there as a warm up – whereas for many it is the main event and this is an afterthought. Bar a mishap I struggle to see him out of the top 4teafor3
13. ACROSS THE BAY 10 10st 11lb; Donald McCain; Henry Brooke
Has completed the course twice so must be fancied to do so again. But he likes to be up front and paid for that last year when weakening badly in the home straight to finish 14th. Would appear to need a shorter trip
14. DOUBLE SEVEN 8 10st 11lb, Martin Brassil (IRE)
The other possible mount for McCoy, his chance would appear to rest on the ground being no softer than good. If McCoy picks him the price will shorten but is handicapped high enough on what he has achieved and as an 8yo stats don’t favour his chances
15. BATTLE GROUP 9 10st 10lb; Johnny Farrelly; Brendan Powell
‘Enigmatic’ would be a polite way to describe this fella who hit a purple patch of form at this meeting 12 months ago winning twice. His record on last three runs sees two pulled ups and a refusal to highlight the risk involved in backing him. His mark is plenty high enough but if the fences are to his liking it wouldn’t be the biggest shock to see him competing – the ability is there – but strongest likelihood remains he will down tools early!
16. BUCKERS BRIDGE 8 10st 10lbs; Henry de Bromhead(IRE)
No winning form over more than 2.5 miles counts him out for me immediately
17. LION NA BEARNAI 12 10st 10lbs; Tomas Gibney (IRE); Davy Russell
A previous Irish Grand National winner – that has been a good pointer for this race before but not when they come here aged 12. Would need some cut in the ground and if it did come up soft he would be expected to stay on. Others fancied more
18. PRINCE DE BEAUCHENE 11 10st 10lbs,;Willie Mullins (IRE)
Has been Ante Post fav for this race in years past but never made it to this stage until now.I’m sure if Ruby walsh were riding some would have latched on to his chances but I’ve had the feeling before he may just not quite get this trip. Form this year also indicates a regression
19. MONBEG DUDE 9 10st 9lbs; Michael Scudamore; Paul Carberry
The Dude likes to be hald up and come late to win his races. Very tough to employ those tactics here but it can be done (Rhyme n Reason was famously last at Bechers first time in 1988 before triumphing). Paul Carberry was at his finest when using these tactics to perfection in the 2013 Welsh National. It should be noted however that his half length victim there – Teaforthree – is 13lbs better off. No course experience for the Dude but he has Zara Phillips 3 day eventing expertise in his team to prepare him for these kind of fences
20. BIG SHU 9 10st 8lbs; Peter Maher (IRE); Peter Buchanan
All of his form comes in cross country events and hunter chases. This marks him down as a good jumper but the pace of this race will be something new to him and expect him to be out of his comfort zone here
21. BURTON PORT 10 10st 8lbs; Jonjo O’Neill; Brian Harding
Hard to imagine that Burton Port is 10 – he seems to have been round a while and was competing at the top table of chasing for a couple of seasons.He would have been about top weight if he ran in this last year and has now slipped down the handicap after some poor efforts this year. His last run gave some hope that he may have found some ability again and if Jonjo O’Neill has managed to prime him back to form for the big occasion (wouldn’t be a shock!) then he is a dark horse in the race.
22. OUR FATHER 8 10st 8lbs; David Pipe
Always looked to have plenty of talent but it’s a while since we’ve seen it. Hard to fancy
23. MOUNTAINOUS 9 10st 7lbs;Richard Lee; Jamie Moore
This years Welsh National winner is a fine jumper who revels in soft ground. On anything quicker than soft he may find things happening a bit too quickly. Needs lots of rain to boost his chances
24. THE RAINBOW HUNTER 10 10st 7lbs; Kim Bailey; Aidan Coleman
Unseated rider here last year at a point that was too early to tell if he would have been involved. His caerer best win at Doncaster last time now sees him on highest ever mark of 144 and that should be his downfall – you need to come to this race having something in hand of the handicapper
25. VINTAGE STAR 8 10st 7lbs; Sue Smith; Brian Hughes
At 8, the stats are against him but this one has the look of a National horse to me – it may just be a year too early. His sire normally produces good ground performers so there is a chance that his soft ground form this year can be improved upon. Without his fall last time at Cheltenham, I would feel a bit stronger but we can be sure he has been schooled plenty on Malton’s Aintree style fences since. There are worse 40/1 shots for sure as he has had more chase experience than most 8yos in this contestvintage star
26. CHANCE DU ROY 10 10st 6lbs; Philip Hobbs; Tom O’Brien
Winner of the Becher Chase on this course before Christmas he has two ways of running at this track. In the Topham last year he was in trouble from the start. Satmina for this trip has to be an issue for me
27. HAWKES POINT 9 10st 6lbs; Paul Nicholls; Ryan Mahon
Close second in the Welsh National, he’s another who need the ground to be soft or else it may all be a bit too quick for him. Only 7 chase starts is a bit of a negative but he is 9 years old so should be strong enough for this test now. Place chances if the rain comes
28. KRUZHLININ 7 10st 6lbs; Donald McCain
Too young at 7? Has another entry on Saturday and think it’s likely that Donald MCcain would prefer him to run in that at this stage of his career
29. PINEAU DE RE 11 10st 6lbs; Dr Richard Newland; Leighton Aspell
There has been some interest in this one in Ante Post markets recently after a fine run over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival. Ran over the course in December but fell at an early stage – generally a sound jumper. Good jockey booking but races here off a career highest mark of 143 – can he really be improving at the age of 11?? Can see why he’s been backed but seems short enough now around 20/1. A suspicion that he might need more time between his races also?
30. GOLAN WAY 10 10st 5lbs; Tim Vaughan; Michael Byrne
Likes to dominate and will struggle to have things all his own way here. Readily discounted
31. TWIRLING MAGNET 8 10st 5lbs; Jonjo O’Neill
Beaten last time at Cheltenham when unseating rider. No form at this kind of mark that would prompt me to give him a chance
32. VESPER BELL 8 10st 5lbs; Willie Mullins(IRE)
One run over this course saw him get no farther than fence 1.Probably too young and not enough chase experience yet
33. THE PACKAGE 11 10st 4lb; David Pipe; Tom Scudamore
Another ‘dark’ one, The Package has always had ability but is a bit fragile having only been seen once in the last year. The ‘bounce factor’ from that Cheltenham run could be a concern . Ran in this race as a fancied 14/1 shot in 2010 (too young then?) but didn’t seem to enjoy the fences before unseating rider at the 19th
34. RAZ DE MAREE 9 10st 3lb; Dessie Hughes (IRE); Davy Condon
No encouragement in runs this year to think he is well weighted off a mark of 140
35. ROSE OF THE MOON 9 10st 3lbs; David O’Meara
Been following this one since he chased home Bobs Worth over hurdles at Cheltenham in 2011. Has looked a bit lacking in pace at a higher level since then. Didnt get competitive in the Becher Chase in December when on a mark of 135 and comes here 5 pounds worse off. Think he’ll struggle to keep up early
36. SHAKALAKABOOMBOOM 10 10st 3lbs; Nicky Henderson; David Bass
Well fancied for the race in 2012 but didn’t get home then after being prominent most of the way. 9 lbs lower mark here but he’s done nothing so far this season to show he retains the same ability
37. ALVARADO 9 10st 2lb; Fergal O’Brien; Paddy Brennan
The owners have been placed regularly in this race in recent years courtesy of Cappa Blue and State of Play. Alvarado doesn’t have quite the class of those two and seems to have two ways of running. 139 is a plenty high enough mark
38. LAST TIME D’ALBAIN 10 10st 2lb; Liam Cusack(IRE)
Placed in the Topham last year but with no winning form over more than 2.5 miles I think he should be sticking to that shorter race again
39. LOST GLORY 9 10st 2lb; Jonjo O’Neill
Pulled up after being tailed off in last two outings is not the preparation you would like to see for this! Only reason for support would be if you like the name
40. ONE IN A MILAN 9 10st 2lbs; Evan Williams
A career best when 4th in the Welsh National doesn’t put him in here as a total no hoper. Would need some heavy rain to replicate the deep ground conditions though
With only the top 40 guaranteed a place those below have to wait until Thursday’s final entry stage and hope that some above are taken out of the race to get in. For now comments on the next half dozen who stand best chance of getting in
41. GOONYELLA 7 10st 1lb; Jim Dreaper(IRE)
Being another 7 year old is a bit of a put off. Has plenty of chasing experience for his age though and on breeding it’s entirely possible that better ground may suit him here. Looks a thorough stayer
42. SWING BILL 13 10st 1lb; David Pipe
The second 13 yo in the race, Swing Bill has popped over these fences 6 times now, finishing 6th in the race last year. He’s a very unlikely winner but would be one to look at for markets to finish the race /finish in top 10 etc.
43. SOLL 9 10st; Jo Hughes; Mark Grant
My early fancy for the race – mentioned in January blog – I have backed him at 50/1 but fear his heavy ground runs since Christmas have scuppered his chances a bit here. 7th last year when it was a year too soon for me. If he does get in and manages to recapture his form I think he has a serious chance – but that’s a very big if!
44. MINELLA FOR VALUE 8 10st John Butler
Hard to make out a case here – mark is too high
45. NIGHT IN MILAN 8 10st Keith Reveley
An interesting runner right at the bottom if he manages to get in the race. Needs good ground and may well get that now. Downside is he may want to dominate from the front and there’ll be competition for that role. Nevertheless, a decent outsider despite 8 not being an ideal age
46. SAINT ARE 8 10st Tim Vaughan
9th in the race last year as a 7yo. Previously had won twice at this meeting on the Mildmay course. Form this year not encouraging though it has to be said he has never run well at Cheltenham where he pulled up last time.Looking unlikely he will get in but if he does I might have a small tickle if someone puts up a 3 figure price.

We have to assume the remaining 19 runners entered will be struggling to get into the race now

CONCLUSIONS

Ground will be a factor here for sure so thoughts may change as we get to race day. Soft ground looking unlikely right now but if the rain does fall there are a few resolute stayers whose chances will improve.
Employing my favourite stats I’m looking for something weighted no higher than 11st that is aged 9, 10 or 11. Previous course experience and proven stamina (either in this race or in similar well run races like the Scottish, Welsh or Irish nationals) are preferential

This gives my optimum shortlist of
TEAFORTHREE (Grand national + Welsh national form)
MONBEG DUDE (Welsh National form)
MOUNTAINOUS (Welsh national form)
HAWKES POINT (Welsh National form)

The last two named would appear to need the ground to be soft and as that doesn’t look likely right now I’ll be leaving them until more rain materializes.
Teaforthree is weighted to beat Monbeg Dude on their Welsh National run and his running style should be better suited to this race as he can maintain a handy position throughout
I have already put him up at 10/1 on a previous blog posting but 9/1 may still be available Welsh national dude

He doesn’t quite fit the stats with his age but if the ground does continue to look like being Good or Good to Soft I can see Vintage Star performing well at big odds so a small play at 40/1 ew wouldn’t go amiss – he ran well in the Welsh National despite the ground probably being against him

Already recommended

1pt ew SOLL 50/1
2.5 pts ew TEAFORTHREE 10/1 (taking ¼ odds 12345 NRNB)

Additional selection
0.75 pts ew VINTAGE STAR 40/1 (BetVictor ¼ odds 123456!)

Thanks for reading

Good luck with whatever you back and hoping they all come back safe and well

Comments as always are most welcome

Paul

(It’s always good to read some different views so here’s a couple of respected blog sites to give some alternative opinions http://grandnational2014.blogspot.co.uk/ http://softinplacesracing.wordpress.com/2014/03/30/grand-national-2014/ )

 
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Posted by on March 31, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Time for tea?

23 Mar

I’ll be doing a full Grand National preview in just over a week once the 5 day declarations are out but there’s a bit of value right now prompting an early post.
A few stats for the race were on last year’s preview https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2013/04/02/528/ but an excellent rundown of the race facts can be found on here http://www.grandnationalstats.co.uk/
My main focus will always remain on finding something on 11stone or less and so despite the obvious class of Tidal Bay and Long Run on 11st 10lb and 11st 9lb, it will take an effort not seen since the days of Red Rum to win off that weight.
In my January update post I did advise Soll for the race. After a very promising return before Christmas however his subsequent campaign has been perplexing. Two gruelling heavy ground marathons with him finishing legless on both occasions are not the preparation you would want for this event. On his last start he looked jaded already from them, and while he’s still in the race right now I am far from hopeful of his chances at the moment.
The standout though is current favourite, Teaforthree. A terrific run in this race last year saw him finish 3rd (and the only horse to carry over 11 stone to finish in the first 12 speaks volumes). This year his campaign has been much more geared to this race including what was always intended to be a warm up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
He gets in on 10st 12lb this year – an ideal weight for the stats and has that course experience behind him. Effective on all ground except firm (which just won’t happen anyway for safety reasons) I find it very difficult to pick any holes in his chances
With some firms now offering Non Runner No Bet it means that if he doesn’t run for some reason we won’t lose our cash – and with an extra place being offered with some (and which has to be taken), I find it hard not to see him in the thick of it again (always need a little slice of luck in running to get round here of course)
I can’t imagine for one minute that he will be a double figure price on raceday so would take the 10/1 around now – the race has cut up a little since the last declaration stage and 6/1 or even 5/1 on the day would not be a surprise to see

teaforthree

Recommendation:
2.5pts ew Teaforthree 10/1 (NRNB ¼ odds 12345 with 365, Paddy Power or Betfair Sportsbook)

Already advised 1pt ew Soll 50/1

Thanks for reading

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 23, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Cheltenham Results 2014

14 Mar

The final day started badly when long time Gold Cup hope, First Lieutenant was pulled out of the race. The rest of the day didnt get much better with some shock wins that I couldnt come close to picking. Ironically, Gigginstown Stud (who own First Lieutenant) has a field day with their other runners having 4 winners. Another reason not to fly Ryanair in the future!

It’s back to the day job for me now and the blog will be quiet until Aintree in the first week of April (before then any messages will be on Twitter)

Looking ahead to next year I see no reason why O Faolains Boy can’t be competitive in the Gold Cup. Ballyalton is a less obvious name that I’ll be following with novice chases in mind. More of That could prove to be one of the greats – he beat Annie Power on merit and stamina didnt come into her loss

It’s been a successful week for the blog – ending with a 39.87 pt profit to a level stake.

Hoping that some winners have come your way and thanks for reading throughout the week

Paul

Image

 

Festival Results 2014

Selections

Tuesday

1.30

 0.5 pts ew The Liquidator 20/1 (1/4 1234) – LOST

0.5 pts ew Three Kingdoms 40/1 (1/4 1234) – LOST

2.40

1pt ew Time For Rupert 16/1 – LOST

0.5 pts ew Solix 50/1 – LOST

0.5 pts ew Muldoons Picnic 33/1 – LOST

1pt ew double

 My Tent or Yours 4/1 3.20 Chelt – 2nd

Dodging Bullets 5/1 2.05 Chelt – LOST

4.00

1pt ew Doyly Carte (w/o Quevega) 20/1 – LOST

5.15

1pt ew Close House 16/1- LOST

Daily Profit/Loss   -12 pts (12 pts staked – no returns)

 

Wednesday

2.05

1pt ew Le Bec 16/1 – fell

1pt ew O’Faolains Boy 25/1 – won (returns 33.25 pts)

2.40

1pt ew Bayan 12/1 3rd (returns 4 pts)

3.20

3pts win Sire De Grugy 3/1 won (returns 12 pts) – went as high as 4/1!

4.40

1pt ew Goodwood Mirage 10/1 – brought down

0.5 pts ew Orgilgo Bay 20/1 – 3rd (returns 3pts)

0.25 pts ew Hawk High 40/1 – won (returns 13pts)

5.15

1pt ew Neck or Nothing 25/1 lost

1pt ew Our Kaempfer 33/1 – lost

Daily Profit/Loss    +48.75 pts  (  16.5 pts staked – 65.25 pts returned)

Running Profit/Loss +36.75 pts

 

Thursday

1.30

 3pts ew Oscar Whisky 10/1 fell

2.05

1pt ew Grand Vision 16/1 lost

0.5pts ew Cross Kennon 33/1 lost

2.40

1.5pts ew Al Ferof 5/1 lost

4.00

1pt ew Champion Court 14/1 lost

1pt ew Third Intention 16/1 5th (returns 5pts)

0.5 pts ew Tartak 33/1 lost

4.40

1pt ew Roberto Goldback 20/1 3rd (returns 6pts)

1pt ew Spring Heeled 18/1 won (returns 24.5 pts)

 

Daily Profit/Loss +13.5 pts  (22 pts staked  ,  35.5 pts returned)

Running Profit/Loss +50.25 pts

 

Friday

1.30

1pt ew Broughton 13/2 – LOST

2.05

1pt ew Cheltenian 10/1 – LOST

0.5 pts ew Runswick Royal 50/1 – LOST

2.40

0.5 pts ew Masters Hill 22/1 (w/o 2 favs) – LOST

3.20

2pts ew First Lieutenant 12/1 (Ante Post) – NR – LOST

1pt ew First Lieutenant 16/1 NRNB – NR – VOID

4.40

0.5 pts ew Thomas Crapper 25/1 2nd (returns 3.62 pts)

0.5 pts ew Une Artiste 25/1 – LOST

5.15

1pt ew His Excellency 22/1 – LOST

 

Daily Profit/Loss -10.38 pts  (16 pts staked  -, 5.62 pts returned)

Running Profit/Loss +39.87 pts ( 66.5 pts staked ; 106.37 pts returned  +59.9%)

 
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Posted by on March 14, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Cheltenham Day 4

13 Mar

firstlieu2

Another good day for the blog after shaky start to the day when Oscar Whisky managed to get no further than the first fence.
Third Intention scraped into 5th to get some place money back with those firms who offered the extra place.
The final race worked out perfectly though with Spring Heeled delivering the good and Roberto Goldback placed.
Thus the day ended with a profit of13.5 pts (running total for the meeting now shows us ahead by 50.25 pts)
Onto Friday, the final day of the meeting:

1.30 Triumph Hurdle
Generally ¼ odds a place 123 but 888 are offering ¼ 1234
Odds here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-14-cheltenham/13:30/winner
The top prize for 4yo hurdlers or ‘juveniles’ as we like to call them.
This used to throw up some funny results – I still cant fathom how horses like Shiny Copper and Ikdam won it – but since the inception of the Fred Winter Hcap it has become more reliable for getting winners at the head of the betting.
Calipto is the favourite and is unbeaten over obstacles for Paul Nicholls. His initial win was a hot looking event but his last win didn’t tell us too much more. He has the highest official rating in the field. Downsides – no form on an undulating course like Cheltenham, ground quicker than he has encountered so far? Also I am starting to get concerned that the form of his stable isn’t quite as it should be after some runners this week haven’t quite been delivering as I might have expected.He doesnt appeal to me at the odds available.
Broughton and Guitar Pete both have collateral form with Clarcam and I was very impressed with the former’s win at Musselburgh. Clarcam got a soft lead there but Broughton picked him up easily and won really well. He is my main fancy for this race and I would be stronger still if it hadn’t been for the ground watering and fog before Thursdays card which seemed to soften the ground a bit more than would have been expected. He hasn’t run at the course but on the flat seemed to thrive at Goodwood and you cant get much more of an up and down course than that!
Guitar Pete is a threat who has improved all season ( I wouldn’t read too much into Lindenhurst’s victory over him right at the beginning). He may want softer ground though and has to reverse good ground form on this course with Royal Irish Hussar ( disappointed badly since but a big contender on the rest of his form)
Tiger Roll is another I suspect needs softer (by Authorised – they usually do) and this also applies to Kentucky Hyden who would definitely have a shout at big odds if it did get soft.
Don’t underestimate the John Quinn pair either (won this with Countrywide Flame). Pearl Castle was a little disappointing to me last time and I do prefer Rutherglen out of the 2 – he looks a very gutsy type while not quite proven in this grade – yet there looks to be some improvement there and could be suited by this course.
It’s an open race but I am struggling to see Broughton out of the frame and so the recommendation is
1pt ew Broughton 13/2 (888 taking their ¼ 1234) (15/2 is available with PP but I think the extra place is massive here)


2.05 County Hurdle
50/50 split here between firms offering ¼ 1234 and 12345 here – look for the latter
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-14-cheltenham/14:05/winner
Always a tough handicap but there’s only one that’s had my eye for sometime here – Cheltenian. Philip Hobbs has a good record in this and the Betfair Hurdle has been a good guide. I thought he was well handicapped in that and he travelled like a classy horse but just couldn’t sustain the effort in bad ground. He won the Bumper here in the past so we know he acts on the course.The ground has changed now and as I mentioned on Twitter earlier today I’ve had a play here.
A word about the likely fav Arctic Fire. I’m sure he has the ability to win this but seems a quirky type who can pull very hard. He needs a lot to go right but the pace of this race may suit him – the price is too low though for a horse that Ruby Walsh has been ready to pass by in novice hurdles earlier this year.
Recommendation
1 pt ew Cheltenian 10/1 (corals ¼ 1234 – or take 9/1 with firms offering 12345)

2.40 Albert Bartlett Hurdle
General ¼ odds 123
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-14-cheltenham/14:40/winner
One of the most eagerly awaited clashes of the season for me between two high class novice hurdlers, Briar Hill and Kings Palace
Briar Hill won the Bumper here impressively last year. He is a bit of a deceiver as he doesn’t do much stunning work at home and can appear to do just enough in his races – this is no bad trait and as yet we just don’t know how far he can go. The price on him has tumbled this week as he was mooted as the ‘banker’ of Mullins’s attack on the three novice hurdle races – he has won the other two!
Opposing him is one of the quickest jumpers of a hurdle I have seen in the novice department for some time – Kings Palace – who has been fav for this for a long time previously.
I really struggle to see anything else troubling these two – they both look distinctly above average
The weight of money for Briar Hill has made Kings Palace close to an each way price though and if he reaches 4/1 or higher (not there yet) he may become a recommendation
There are other decent horses in the race but I will be looking for some value in them in markets without the two favs tomorrow
So for now at least – no bet – but check back in the morning for an update here


3.20 Gold Cup
¼ odds 123 generally
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-14-cheltenham/15:20/winner
The ‘Blue Riband’ event of the Festival and one where the blog already has a view from the ‘January update’ and ‘5 days to go’ postings.
I have longed for First Lieutenant to run in this race on decent ground and while it looked like he might be rerouted for a time he has made it.
The value of the bet is more in the place side for me and I see him as the main threat to Bobs Worth who has a fairly irresistible 5 out of 5 record at the course and is a wonderfully tough animal to beat. If the bookies try to lay Bobs Worth at over 2/1 I may well be having an interest as well
Silviniaco Conti’s lack of course form concerns me – as does the trainer’s form at the Festival so far. Last Instalment was undeniably impressive last time but also has no track form and it was touch and go him running because of the ground no longer being soft.
Triolo D’Alene is only the price he is because his trainer made some loud noises about him and AP Mc Coy was booked – I can’t see him as a 12/1 shot at all and why he should be shorter than The Giant Bolster (who has been here and done it) baffles me. There could be an angle here tomorrow for match betting if anyone offers that pair together
Previously recommended
2pts ew First Lieutenant 12/1
1pt ew First Lieutenant 16/1

4.00 Foxhunters Chase
Generally ¼ odds 123 but some offer 1234
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-14-cheltenham/16:00/winner
Hunter chases and amateur riders – you have to have some knowledge about the Point to Point scene here and I just don’t follow it enough to have a strong view.
Like the Kim Muir on Thursday having a good rider on board is a massive positive and 2 I will be looking at that fit that bill and are nice odds are Pearlysteps and Certain Flight. I just can’t recommend a bet on the blog though with my lesser expertise in this field here
No Bet

4.40 Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle
Generally ¼ odds 12134 but look for that 5th place again!
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-14-cheltenham/16:40/winner
Less experienced jockeys here (the bigger the claim they make the less winners they have ridden)
The race is named after David Pipe’s father and the fact he only has one runner here Vieux Lion Rouge is notable – he has also said it was his best handicapped novice of the week. Wouldn’t dissuade anyone from backing him but the odd aren’t anything special and I llok for a couplof value outsiders here instead.
Thomas Crapper won a competitive event on the course in good fashion in November. On his next start the trip proved his undoing and then heavy ground was his downfall at Ascot. Back to optimum conditions here and worth a small nibble
Une Artiste represent a stable who have done well in this and she is a previous Festival winner. She may be a bit quirky but back over hurdles and on a reasonable mark of 140 she is interesting at big odds

Recommendations
0.5 pts ew Thomas Crapper 25/1 (365, Stan James both offering ¼ 12345)
0.5 pts ew Une Artiste 25/1 (365, Stan James)

5.15 Grand Annual Chase
Generally ¼ odds 12134 but look for that 5th place once more!
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-14-cheltenham/17:15/winner
The traditional ‘getting out’ race is always a minefield that I won’t get bogged down in too much
Claret Cloak would be a strong fancy on this ground if it wasn’t for me having some concern if he will act on the course – think a flat track may suit him better. Novices do have a good record in this race though and this horse has plenty of class – best seen if his effort can be left late. He is verging on a bet but is just slightly too short right now and I’ll play only if I can get more than 10/1
We know that His Excellency can perform here. He is a bit of a monkey and can run two ways but the handicapper has given him a chance here off a mark of 142 (fell last year when still having every chance off 151). This is the sort of strong paced race that could see him in his best light
(I’ll also add that Mr Mole is badly handicapped– has a mind of his own and is an atrocious price – so lets see him bolt in now! )
Recommendation
1pt ew His Excellency 22/1 (Coral , Bet Victor – both currently pay on 1st 4)

Hoping everyone’s had a great meeting
Thanks for reading once more and any comments welcome

Paul

**MORNING UPDATE**
I will be waiting patiently for any prices to drift on Bobs Worth or Claret Cloak and will poist on Twitter during day (@Senor_Moodoir)if I see something I like

Two additional bets added though
2.05 0.5 pts ew Runswick Royal @50/1 (VC 1/4 12345)
Improving young horse and 4lb rise not harsh for his latest win – just think he’s been overpriced a bit because of his non fashionable trainer

2.40 Betting without Briar Hill and Kings Palace here;
0.5 pts ew Masters Hill 22/1 (365 1/5 123).
He’s been the only one to try and make a race of it with Kings Palace this season and back over a trip and decent ground I don’t think he should be this high in comparison to others in the race

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Day 3

12 Mar

Oscar Whisky Chelt

What a difference a day makes! After some abject performances yesterday the blog se;lections have steamed back today to record a 48.75 pt profit on the day and 36.75 points ahead on the meeting so far. O’Faolains Boy got the Ante Post selections off to a lovely start, Sire De Grugy cemented the profit and then there was a lovely surprise when Hawk High (as high as 50/1 available today) won the Fred Winter.

It would be too much to hope we can match those type of figures but we can but try!

Thursday races:

1.30 JLT Novices Chase

¼ odds 123 generally available

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/13:30/winner

The change of this to Group 1 status has really elevated this race last year and attracted many that would normally have plumped for the Arkle or the RSA. For me, it is the classiest race of the three this year.

Because of the change in conditions, previous stats may not be too relevant

I advised Oscar Whisky in my January update blog at 10/1 and he’s still here with a fine chance on ground that should suit. Some judges have crabbed his latest win but that was on terrible ground and this should be his optimum conditions. I expect him to uphold his form over others he has beaten this season now that he won’t have to shoulder all of the donkey work up front himself.

Djakadam has been well touted by the Irish shrewdies recently as a Gold Cup horse of the future but his price is more about potential than actual form,a remark I would also give to Harry Fry’s Vukovar. Neither can be totally discounted it but I’d want a bit more juice in their odds

Taquin Du Seuil needs softer ground we have to think (same for Double Ross)and the main danger is Felix Yonger back on the kind of surface he looked so impressive on earlier in the season (soft ground just doesn’t show him in the same light). A saver on Felix, who seems a very professional jumper might not go amiss

But I rely on the ante post bet here

Previously recommended

3pts ew Oscar Whisky 10/1

2.05 Pertemps Final

¼ odds generally but search out for those offering ¼ 12345

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/14:05/winner

Very tricky handicap – a rating stat would tell us to avoid anything that is 143+ though. Some will have been laid out specifically for the race and expect the change in ground to bring about some notable improvement in some contenders. These weight stats are being beaten this week it has to be said and the better ground must have something to do with that so I am less inclined to dismiss the higher weights than normal.

What I am loathe to do in such a tricky race is to back anything at single figure odds so despite strong claims for both I can’t back Fingal Bay or If In Doubt.

It’s the kind of race where I look for the overpriced outsiders but definitely not a race to go overboard on.

There aren’t many that scream out as being ahead of the handicapper but two take the eye for small stakes.

Grand Vision was a very useful novice (3rd in Albert Bartlett 2 seasons back) who then suffered an injury and missed a season. He seems to be gradually fin ding his way back to form this season and it was no disgrace not to match Saphir Du Rheu and today’s Coral Cup winner Whisper over an inadequate trip last time. A mark of 142 is fair on his novice form and that also shows he operates on this course/distance/ground

The other one has been to this well many times before – Cross Kennon. He’s a front runner who can be very hard to pass and 139 is not a harsh mark. He ran well off the same mark here in November and is better off with Southfield Theatre was 3.5 lengths in front, and also Pineau de Re who finished a neck behind. Expect him to be in the van throughout and trying to beat them off from a long way out. This tactic is not strange to see in winning this race –  Buena Vista, Kayf Aramis and one of my all time favs from past years, Willie Wumpkins all did it that hard way too.

Recommendations:

1pt ew Grand Vision 16/1 (Hills ¼ 1234)

0.5 pts ew Cross Kennon 33/1 (Skybet & Paddy Power where ¼ 12345 is available)

2.40 Ryanair Chase

Generally ¼ odds 123

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/14:40/winner

I have to admit to this being a bit of a graveyard race for me in the past – it often seems to be the consolation prize for horses who can’t quite get into the Champion Chase or the Gold Cup. 3 mile form seems to outweigh form from shorter trips and a previous win at Cheltenham is a notable must have.

Benefficient and Dynaste represent last year’s JLT form but Dynaste has yet to perform to his highest level at this meeting in the past and I’m not sure if the JLT form is quite up with what others have achieved.

Al Ferof is my marginal preference but I would be very wary of Menorah, whose form at the back end of last season is arguably the strongest in this race. He hasn’t done much this season but is the dark one here.

Not a strong enough view to recommend a bet though

3.20 World Hurdle

Generally ¼ odds 123

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/15:20/winner

The inclusion of Annie Power into this event has kind of robbed it of betting interest to me. She could well be a class above them but is untested over 3 miles and that has to put me off taking any short odds. Her price will be shorter still after the wins of Vautour and Faugheen for the Mullins team will see liabilities running onto her and stablemate Briar Hill on Friday.

Big Bucks still has question marks after his reappearance from a long injury lay off – he is the best staying hurdler I have ever seen but he is 11 now and we can’t tell for sure if he retains all of his ability.

Expect Big Bucks’s stablemates to make this a true stamina test to expose any weaknesses in their rivals.

Given the doubts about the top two,  I would normally be looking for something each way to oppose them with. At Fishers Cross would prefer much softer ground though so not to expose his jumping flaws. More of That hasn’t raced over the trip either, and his full brother Eastlake’s record wouldn’t give any confidence for him staying it.

Rule The World is the interesting outsider for me. Second to The New One in the Neptune last year he looked a serious prospect for the future then but got badly injured on his next start. It’s great to have him back and his astute trainer, Mouse Morris, will have him trained to the moment for this I’m sure.

He just isn’t quite big enough to recommend but we may look at this race again tomorrow if firms offer markets without the two favourites

4.00 Byrne Group Plate

Generally ¼ odds 1234 but again there are firms who will pay that extra 5th place if you can get it

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/16:00/winner

My mail box was swamped earlier today with ‘Racing Post Tracker’ info of horses I was looking out for being entered in this race.

There are several possibilities for me

There is a weight stat favouring anything rated less than 142 but as previously mentioned I am less inclined to stick rigidly to that with the ground.

Previous soft ground could also be responsible for a good record for French bred horses in this.

A previous run at the Festival is a must though for me – and the Irish have a terrible record in this race.

These two stats are enough to put me off the fancied Sraid Padraig.

Tap Night went into mine and many other notebooks for this race with an eyecatching display here in January. It also went into the handicappers notebook though who raised him to 145 – and the fact that AP Mc Coy deserts him for Colour Squadron puts me off there

Johns Spirit and Colour Squadron were the 1-2 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last November on the course. This hasn’t been a good guide here in the past and the handicapper appears to have their measure now but I am interested in the favourite for that race, Champion Court, who disappointed then and was found to be not right subsequently. He finds himself here, despite being allotted top weight, about a stone better off with both of them – and has the great assistance of Ryan Hatch to claim 7lbs to bring his mark effectively down to 150. This really is an attractive mark for a horse who has enough class to be a Ryanair chase runner. Hatch is very good claimer who has already won the Betfair Hurdle this year and has Festival winning experience from Same Difference last year. Stats may not be in his favour but I like his chances here.

Third Intention is a cliff horse for me – I will follow him over one most probably but won’t desert him here at his price. I don’t think he’s been campaigned that well on ground that has been too soft for him at times and for me this is more his ground/trip. He’s also slipped from a mark in the 150s to 143 and I’m sure he can win something decent off that if things go his way. Timeform give him a squiggle as being unreliable but I think that’s a little unfair and his third at Ascot last time got a nice boost when O Faolains Boy took the RSA today

At the bootom of the weights, Tartak is a bit of a lurker getting in off 131 (should be 129 but the minum weight is 10st). He was third in this of 134 last year and showed in October he can still be effective in this type of race. I’m always happy to ignore runs in Haydock’s awful soft ground as he had last time

Recommendations

1pt ew Champion Court 14/1 (365 paying 1st 5, Paddy Power 1st 4)

1pt ew Third Intention 16/1 (sportingBet 1st 5, others 1st 4)

0.5 pts ew Tartak 33/1(888 1st 5, others 1st 4)

4.40 Kim Muir Trophy

Generally ¼ odds 1234 but again some firms offer 12345

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-13-cheltenham/16:40/winner

Another competitive handicap but this time for amateur riders.

For amateurs it makes a huge difference to me how much experience they have and if they are claiming weight that’s a big turn off. The best amateurs can have a significant advantage in ability and experience.

The market is dominated by Indian Castle and Cause of Causes and there is a natural inclination to think both have been laid out for this race.

Donald McCain likes this race – Cloudy Lane was his first Festival winner here and he came very close with Super Duty last year. Indian castle won well last time and easy to see why he’s fav with a top rider on his back. The worry though is that his best form comes on softer ground.

Cause of Causes had several entries at the meeting but has come for this with the excellent Nina Carberry to do the steering. The handicapper hasn’t missed the move though and 140 isn’t exactly thrown in on his chase form although he was weighted higher over hurdles. He can’t be discounted but I feel others are overpriced as the bookies try to keep these two short.

Roberto Goldback is a bit of a veteran now but it’s a very long time since he got the good ground he wants and a mark below 150 (144 here). Sam Waley Cohen has won a Gold Cup so I think we can’t crab him when it comes to experience! He is both top rated on Racing Post ratings and Timeform to highlight his form chances. I am a little concerned about previous course form but the price is too tempting to ignore

Spring Heeled was an eyecatcher over 4 furlongs further here in November when he appeared not to get home. This ground appears best for him and on this shorter trip I can see him being a big player here with another top amateur on board. He’s another I suspect has been mapped out for this race but the price is far more to my liking

Recommendations

1pt ew Roberto Goldback 20/1 (Stan James and Betfair Sportsbook both pay out 12345)

1pt ew Spring Heeled 18/1 (Stan James)

As always comments are welcome – thanks for taking the time to read the blog and best of luck once more!

Paul

**MORNING UPDATE**
Not many firms wanting to get involved in markets without the favs in the World Hurdle – further muddied by Quevega still sitting in the race and far from guaranteed to be a runner. Will leave that alone.
Despite the Ryanair being my bogey race at the Festival though I think Al Ferof’s form at the track is a bit too solid and the 5/1 available this morning is making him an each way proposition as I struggle to see him out of the frame. Not going mad here given my record in the race before but adding in
1.5 pts ew Al Ferof 5/1 (BetVictor, Paddy Power, Stan James)

(prices have moved on some of last nights selections I’m afraid – Racing Post pricewise put up Champion Court and Hugh Taylor of At The Races threw in Grand Vision http://www.attheraces.com/cheltenham/article.aspx?hlid=537628&lid=&raceid=&title=Hugh+Taylor&ref=Cheltenham+-+Left+Navigation&nav=barry+geraghty+blog&sub=&day=Thu. Third Intention has also come in for some overnight support)

Here’s hoping for another good day!

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

Cheltenham Day 2

11 Mar

Image

A sad day today with the Champion Hurdle result being marred by the sad loss of one of racing’s up and coming stars, Our Conor during the race.

His terrible mishap may well have cost The New One the race also, leaving a bittersweet taste in the mouth regarding the final result.

The blog picks haven’t shone today recording a 12 point loss but tomorrow is another day ands so ‘once more unto the breach’:

 

Wednesday’s card:

1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle

¼ odds 123 generally available

A classy event but I think it concerns the fron 4 in the betting and at the moment value doesn’t jump out on any.

Faugheen has been touted as Mullins’s top novice hurdler through the winter (Vautour won Supreme today). He certainly seems to have an engine but his wins haven’t been without jumping errors and he’ll need to sharpen that up here. His bumper form deserves special mention having beaten today’s Supreme 2nd Josses Hill by 20 lengths! Some vibes from the stable in preview evenings in the last couple of weeks were slightly negative

Stablemate, Rathvinden has had more positive vibes recently and ran second to Red Sherlock here in January, the pair pulling well clear of their field (albeit on softer ground) in the manner of two class acts. They should be close again but despite his tail swishing antics, Red Sherlock is a tough type who often looks to do just enough in his races. I think he may confirm that form and there is no obvious reason he won’t go on this ground.

Nicky Henderson had a woeful record in this race until Simonsig finally did the business and ground is maybe more of a concern for Royal Boy.  He appears weakest of the big 4 for me now.

Of the 4, I have marginal preference for Red Sherlock at the odds of 4/1 but they are all a bit skinny for betting unless one of the firms goes ¼ 1234 this evening

 

2.05 RSA Chase

¼ odds 123 generally available – current odds here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/14:05/winner

The two selections I made in my January update post are still here and I am happy to leave it at that. https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2014/01/09/cheltenham-2014-january-ante-post-preview/  .

This is an open race and I still think the Irish runners are too short in an open field. As previously mentioned in the blog, Annacotty is one I would like to keep on side as well as the two selections and would not put anyone off backing him at 20s (may get a few of these in trouble with his attacking front running style, although may prefer the ground a little softer)

Previously advised:

1pt ew Le Bec 16/1

1ptew O’ Faolains Boy 25/1

(the latter carries my strongest hopes for this race now that Barry Geraghty is confirmed aboard – some may think the good ground may not suit but he has point to point form on the surface)

 

 

2.40 Coral Cup

Most firms offering ¼ odds 12345 (avoid any offering first 4 because of this) http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/14:40/winner

Highly competitive handicap but worth nothing that nothing has ever won from a mark of 147 or above,  despite some good placed efforts from the high weights.

One of those efforts was from Get Me Out of Here (second off 155 in 2012) and he’s had a quiet time this season up to now where he is reunited with Tony Mc Coy. On better ground, a bold effort would not be surprising but he does have a killer stat to overcome to win off 148. 25/1 is fair though and I certainly see him placing again.

I put up Meister Eckhart for this race last year and he ran a great race to be 2nd off 143. The stable’s runners ran well on Tuesday but he is 6lb higher and that rise just puts me off supporting him again.

The lighter weights appear to be the best place to look and there are two that give the impression of being ‘laid out’ for this.

Clondaw Kaempfer, came to Donald McCain with a big reputation last year and it was noted then by the trainer that soft ground wouldn’t be the horses favourite surface. McCain had Son of Flicka spot on for this race a couple of years ago and I can foresee a big run. The one negative for me is his lack of course experience which sways me instead towards Bayan who recorded a second here last year

Bayan represents another previous winning trainer in Gordon Elliott and looks to have been put away for this since December. Elliott certainly got this race right with Carlito Brigante who bolted up in the same colours and Bayan will get the ground he performs best on

Recommendation

1pt ew Bayan 12/1 (generally available)

 

 

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase

¼ odds 123 generally available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/15:20/winner

With reigning champion Sprinter Sacre sidelined this has a more open look and is further thrown into confusion with the three horses I consider to have best form in the race – Sire De Grugy, Arvika Ligeonneire and Somersby all having shown their best form outside of Cheltenham.

With the ground getting quicker also there seems to be a general drive by the firms to try and ‘get’ Sire De Grugy but they could overdo it here and he is gradually verging into value territory.

He has finished second twice in his two starts here but they weren’t bad runs and I’m sure Jamie Moore would have liked to have ridden the race again and come later after being nabbed by McCoy inspired Kid Cassify on the run in.

He is the best 2 mile chaser in the country and now he’s got to 3/1 I will be playing as I think that’s just too much – his Ascot win last time represented another jump forward in his form to me.

So the recommendation is 3pts win Sire De Grugy @3/1 or better (now available with a few firms)

 

4.00 Cross Country Chase

A nice spectacle to watch is my tactful description of this race. Since watching the field dawdle round until the final home turn in A New Story’s year and then all go for a mass sprint in the home straight – crowding each other in the process, I have been turned off it as a betting medium

No Bet thank you very much

 

4.40 Fred Winter Hurdle

1/4 odds 1234 generally but again check for those who offer 5th place payouts again http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/16:40/winner

Always a competitive race but there is a notable stat favouring the highest flat rated horses in the race. Here that seems to be a toss up (96 rating each) for Goodwood Mirage (eyecatching run last time) and Orgilgo Bay (once rated 103). The better ground could see both of them improve and the latter has already been backed from early quotes of 33/1 today.

Recommendations

1pt ew Goodwood Mirage 10/1 (BetVictor, Hills)

0.5 pts ew Orgilgo Bay 20/1 (Sportingbet – who pay out 5th here also)

 

 

5.15 Champion Bumper

Generally ¼ 123 but some firms offering ¼ 1234 now  http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/2014-03-12-cheltenham/17:15/winner

Covered  a few days ago in a previous blog post, both of those I put up there are running and content to stick with them – prices haven’t altered too much since https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2014/03/07/cheltenham-bumper-preview/

Already advised

1pt ew Neck Or Nothing 25/1

1pt ew Our Kaempfer 33/1

 

 

Thanks for reading once more

 

Good Luck

 

Paul

*Morning Update*
4.40 Have a sneaking feeling about Hawk High in this. Don’t consider him especially well weighted on what he has done but have a strong suspicion he could improve markedly on this ground. The Easterby threat is not what it was in the 70s and 80s but he only has a couple of entries at the meeting and doubt he would just send this down for a day out
0.25 pts ew Hawk High @40/1 added to portfolio

 
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Posted by on March 11, 2014 in Uncategorized

 
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