Category Archives: Uncategorized

The final day of the Ebor meeting approaches with the highlight at 3.50
If forecasts are correct we should have had the most of the rain by now so going should be good, if not slightly on the fast side of good
Three races are of interest to me:

2.40 Some promising types who may still have something in hand of the handicapper here. ..and there is also Uradel, sent over by Willie Mullins with only low grade French form who could be literally anything (the market should tell us more tomorrow)
Connecticut, Battersea and Penhill head the list of types who could be ahead of their ratings . If the first named wins he may even be mooted as a St Leger possible. While I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these triumph, it is Penhill who gets the nod from a price perspective.
His trainer is less well known but most capable and I think that’s the only reason he is nearly double the price of the other two at 12/1
0.75 pts ew Penhill 12/1 (general)

3.15 There’s no standout star in this year’s Gimcrack for me. Baitha Alga won well at Royal Ascot but nothing has come out since to advertise the form, while Beacon may have been unlucky at Goodwood but the opposition was not that great.
Jungle Cat holds arguably the best 6 furlong form for me and shouldn’t be dismissed but I like the chances of two Northern runners here who are totally unexposed.
Bryan Smart has trained some good youngsters in the past and I doubt he would run his unbeaten Fendale here unless he thought he was up to the task. This is a league higher than he has competed in , but his victim last time, Teruntum Star, also runs here. This suggests that it was a fair race they competed in last time
Glenalmond is the other. A full brother to Group 1 winning Wootton Bassett, he was far from the finished article on his debut. Karl Burke was narrowly touched off in the Acomb Stakes earlier in the week with another of his juveniles – and he has a useful string this year. I find it fascinating here that connections have passed up a chance of running this horse of a very generous looking mark of 75 to go straight for this higher grade
1pt win Fendale 10/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)
0.5 pts win Glenalmond 208/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills, Boyles)

3.50 My favourite flat race of the year – the Ebor H’cap -and as mentioned earlier in the week, Pallasator ticks all of the boxes for me. I’m not concerned about his high draw while they favour the middle of the home straight (Salutation narrow loser from stall 18 in the first today).
He is much the likeliest winner for me as think he is better than a handicapper now.
There is just one concern for me and that is where the pace will come from in this race. There seems to be nothing in the field that might want to lead and a slow early pace can cause problems here – getting handy early in such a situation is key.
This was evidenced in the first race today where the first 4 home were the first 4 in the race almost throughout. It’s a hard course to make up ground on in such circumstances.
I hope Luke Morris, who knows the horse so well (and am delighted to see has kept the ride after recent sale to Qatar Racing), is aware of this and gets him handy early from his outside draw

I’ll also throw in Elidor at a big price. I put him up for a race at Royal Ascot where he ran well and think he still has the ability to be better than his current mark of 99. Would also like to see him handier than he was last time at Ascot where he was set a hard task off a slow pace.
2pts ew Pallasator 4/1 (general)
0.5 pts ew Elidor 25/1 (365, Ladbrokes and Sky all offer this and pay an extra place as well!)

Good luck to all and thanks for reading the final blog of the meeting

Paul

‘Watch the skies’ is still the advice for Day 3 of York’s Ebor meeting. 5mm fell on Thursday to take the ‘firm’ out of the going and more could be coming this evening.
So tomorrow could be good to firm or it could be good to soft..and hard to take definite views with this in mind.
For longer races, it was apparent today that coming up the centre of the home straight was necessary – something that should negate the usual low draw bias.
Thursday’s first race also showed once again that the stands rail is not a place to go. Anything drawn high in the sprints would be well advised to track towards central ground.
Some quick views for tomorrow:

1.55 Chancery has dropped down to an attractive mark and has good form at the course. I am just slightly put off as he has looked like a horse in need of a break on his last two starts and so plump for Pearl Castle instead. He wouldn’t want a deluge overnight but should be effective on most going and also has that nice C&D by his name. A good 5lb claim could make a lot of difference here
1pt ew Pearl castle 11/1 (Coral)

2.30 Pass!

3.05 A very closely matched field but I’ll be having a small interest on Windfast here. Again seems effective on most ground and had looked progressive until finding 1 mile too far on his last start
0.5pts ew Windfast 14/1 (general)

3.40 Ground is key here. Sole Power needs it quick so any further rain will be to his detriment. Conversely any more rain could set this up for a Hot Streak revival (don’t come up the stands rail though please Jamie!).
Rangali’s form is also soft ground based but he hasn’t encountered quick yet to judge if it will be against him. A literal interpretation of a victory over Catcall puts him bang in this – but did Catcall run to his best last time out? Still I can understand why the 16/1 on him is disappearing tonight and there are worse outsiders than him
Early pace is likely to come from Take Cover (stall 9) and Stepper Point (2). I take the view that Stepper Point was a shade unlucky when these two met at Goodwood having been left on his own early. If there isn’t a big rainfall I make him the best outsider here and worth a little opp with Hills who pay out for 4th place

0.5 pts ew Stepper Point 20/1 (Hills 1/5th odds 1234)

4.20 A maiden race where I have no view at all

4.55 Main bet of the day for me – we haven’t seen the best of Moohaarib yet and I think he’s just overpriced here at 13/2
1.5pts ew Moohaarib 13/2 (hills)

Thanks for reading and hope everyone has a successful day – any more updates because of going I will again post on Twitter

Paul

Wednesday’s opening day started badly for the blog when Music Master was suddenly no longer entered for Friday’s Nunthorpe Stakes – a bad scope given as the reason.
The main selection for the day, Postponed was an impressive winner of the Great Voltigeur to get some profit on the board early (despite Kingston Hill’s withdrawal giving a large Rule 4 deduction of around 40p in £ to the price suggested)
The anticipated good ground proved well wide of the mark with course records broken, and several non runners as the going turned onto the firm side
The going issue now adds another conundrum to what is an already difficult Thursday card in terms of finding value. Rain is apparently forecast tonight or tomorrow – so will they water the course or not.
It’s very hard to pick anything out for tomorrow without knowing what it is going to be like underfoot – if it does stay firm we can expect further non runners.
The last two races of the day don’t appeal much as betting races to me anyway but some quick thoughts on the preceding 4 tv races:

1.55 I don’t think I’ve ever seen so many firms offering 1/5 123 on this race before and fully expected someone to go out with ¼ 1234 (Corals and Ladbrokes only ones I can see so far – hoping for more to join them). Kool Kompany is the form choice but has to give weight all round and I would be looking to oppose him normally. Kevin Ryan has a good record in the race and Fast Act isn’t far behind in terms of form – 6 furlongs is new territory for him but the stable’s Hototo won with a previous similar record in 2012 and he would be top of the shortlist.
Marcano and New Providence appeal as potentially overpriced at double figure quotes.

2.30 Patience Alexander ran so far below form last time that I can’t factor her in and see this as a 3 way affair between the market principals. Ground is key for me and I would be against Tiggy Wiggy if it stayed very quick, but for her if it were to revert to good or softer

3.05 Tricky handicap. Bronze Angel interested me at first glance having won over C&D recently. However I am perplexed that he races off a 2lb higher mark than last time – and he is actually worse off with Fort Bastion who finished ahead of him there. The winner of that Goodwood race, Red Avenger is only 3lb higher and would appeal again if it stays quick – Fort Bastion would be top of the shortlist on slightly easier ground.

3.40 King George and Oaks heroine, Taghrooda, is way ahead of these on form and unopposable.

In what could be a tactical race I favour Volume to come out second best and ‘betting without the favourite’ could be the most interesting option here.

For now with so many uncertainties surrounding the going and not much value in terms of prices around, it’s a no betting day for me as things stand tonight.
If anything changes tomorrow I will update on Twitter (@Senor_Moodoir)

Good luck to all and thanks for reading

Paul

For the last day of Royal Ascot, there are two races that catch the eye with one recommended bet and another race of interest

3.05 Duke Of Edinburgh Handicap
Arab Spring heads the market here and has the look of a Stoute horse on the verge of Group class. He’s gone up 8lb since his latest win to a mark of 104 – which is the mark of a Listed class operator.
He may still have a few pounds in hand but isn’t the only one in the field we can apply this to – it’s a very high class handicap race.
Hamelin, is a lightly raced son of an Oaks winner who could also be somewhat better than his mark of 96. A Channel 4 interview with comedian Jack Whitehall earlier this week told us that he didn’t know that much about the sport but did give away that this was the stable’s big fancy this week!
He is the biggest danger in my mind to an even bigger priced runner who could be very well in.
Elidor won at this meeting last year of a mark of 88 – he comes back on 99 but looked an improved horse on his seasonal debut. That was backed up in his latest performance where his run was held up and he should have finished closer to Gatewood and Pethers Moon – those two are rated well into the 100s and there’s every reason to believe that Elidor should be higher as well. With William Twiston Davies now able to claim his 3lb allowance as well, I think he could be as much as 10lb well in here and at the prices he is the bet
Recommendation
1pt ew Elidor 12/1 general (1/4 1234)
(for anyone that can get on – I can’t except for just over £1! – I would say an even better bet exists with 365 who offer Elidor at 15/2 ¼ 1234 without Arab Spring and Hamelin – that wreaks of huge value)

The other race of interest is the main event
4.25 Diamond Jubilee Stakes
A top flight 6 furlong contest there is just one firm of interest here – Corals – who offer a standout ¼ 1234 on their book
That’s so much better than ¼ 123 here in this 15 runner event.
As it’s only one firm offering I don’t feel its appropriate to make a recommended bet but there are two that appeal with these terms.
Astaire 10/1 – a top 2yo who didn’t stay first time up when taking on Kingman and Night of Thunder. He confirmed he had trained on when looking the best horse at York last time where ground may just have been more suited to the winner.
Music Master 20/1 – looked a sprinter to follow this season but ran far too quickly too early at Windsor. If they can let him sit in behind the pace – rather than go hell for leather through the first 4 furlongs – I do feel he is up to this level this year

Hope everyone has had a good week even though it has been a bit hit and miss for myself!

Thanks for reading

Paul

Course records on Wednesday gave strong suggestion to how fast the ground was. 4mm of water is expected to go on the course tonight but with another fine day forecast tomorrow there could well still be some sting in the ground.
Faster ground may well hamper some tomorrow and there are plenty running whose recent form is on softer surfaces – we could get some surprises!
A few ideas:

3.05 Tercentenary Stakes
Cannock Chase definitely has the look of a Stoute horse going places but he’s priced as if he already has Group race form which he doesn’t. There was a warning after his last win that he may not want conditions too quick.
I will give another chance to my one time Derby fancy Postponed who hasn’t really acted on Newmarket’s dip on his two runs this year (yet is still priced higher than Cloudscape who he beat last time). He has to turn the form around with Barley Mow and Mutakayyef but am hopeful he will on this course. The latter is the main danger for me

1pt ew Postponed 10/1 general

3.45 Ribblesdale Stakes
Having put her up at a big price in the Oaks, he less I say about Inchila’s ride in that the better! I am put off that she is brought out again so soon here and so won’t be betting but she is clearly the best horse in the race for me if still on song

4.25 Gold Cup
I’m not too sure that any of the main principals would want fast ground but Leading Light should cope with it better than most.
Brown Panther has run on on fast ground but ideally good or good to soft may have suited better.
Tac de Boistron definitely wants it softer but he was outstayed over this trip by Altano last year and it is the German raider I would have fancied most in a proper stamina test on decent going.
It’s a no bet race though with nothing obvious to set a good gallop – Brown Panther may want to control the pace from the front and as he isn’t a guaranteed stayer that could mean this isn’t a true test
Leading Light the likeliest winner in that scenario but too short for me given he too is unproven over this far

5.00 Britannia Stakes
High draws were favoured today and I look for those drawn high who will appreciate a return to faster conditions
Top of the list is Bilimbi who disappointed when fav last time on Haydock soft.
Third Dimension is most feared, having the look of one that could be a Group performer in disguise
At very big odds I’ll also throw in Lyn Valley to the shortlist – back over a shorter trip and with faster ground looking likely to suit (shouldn’t be as far apart from Hors de Combat and Born in Bombay in the betting on Newmarket form)
Suggestions;
1pt ew Bilimbi 14/1 (general but look for firms paying ¼ 12345)
1pt ew Third Dimension 16/1 with same place proviso
0.5 pts ew Lyn Valley 33/1 Paddy Power with their ¼ 123456

5.35 King George Stakes
Lots of runners here who may prefer good or even softer ; Elite Army, Windshear, Black Schnapps, Art of War all immediately fit that bill
I would beware all of the Mark Johnston runners here who might all be showing improvement back on a fast surface. Marginal preference of these is for Stars Over The Sea. He has fluffed his lines on the last two occasions – missing the start at Epsom and running too free at Chester. Quotes of 25/1+ are just a bit too big

Suggestion

0.5pts ew Stars Over The Sea 28/1 (365)

Best of luck once more and thanks for reading

Paul

Quick thoughts for day 2 with only three races having any betting interest for me:

2.30 Jersey Stakes
Aeolus would be a decent bet for me here if I could be sure the ground was no faster than good. His only let down this season came when it was too fast and he would probably have beaten Shifting Power ( strong forms lines on that one since ) with better luck in running on his debut. (If the ground does get too quick I could see him being withdrawn and no loss would be involved)
That Is The Spirit remains unbeaten so far and is climbing up the ladder. This represents another rise in grade but there is a strong suspicion that his opponents haven’t been going fast enough for him so far and I can see improvement to come if he can get a strong lead.
Muwaary (pulled very hard last time) and Mustajeeb, have to be respected on their respective Guineas form but are both to short for me in quite an open race.

0.5 pts ew each
That Is the Spirit 14/1 general
Aeolus 20/1 Paddy Power

3.05 Queen Mary Stakes
Despite the strong claims of Anthem Alexander and Tiggy Wiggy (may need softer ground), its noiw very hard to ignore the claims of Spanish Pipedream from the Wesley Ward stable. I got the impression that she was the most fancied of his raiding party a few weeks ago and after the impressive success of the stable’s Hootenanny in Tuesday’s final that puts her firmly in the box seat
At really big odds though I cant ignore a small bet on Coto, who didn’t get home in soft ground last time but looks a real speedball. I can see few matching her for the first four furlongs and then just hope she has enough left in the tank to hold on for the frame
0.25 pts ew Coto 66/1 (Stan james)

5.00 Royal Hunt Cup
As competitive a race as ever but Burano has caught the eye in both runs this year where he appeared unlucky to be closer in both. A mile may be at the bottom of his trip range (9 furlongs probably ideal) but a strong gallop should bring his stamina into play and given luck in running I think he represents fair value here. Few would begrudge his jockey, Jimmy Fortune, a big success here for sure.
0.75 pts ew Burano 28/1 (Stan James – ¼ 12345)

Hoping for better luck tomorrow – Hot Streak a tad disappointing that he couldn’t pick up Stepper Point today –the ground may have just gone against him and certainly for Sole Power. As for the 5.00 – that proved to be a disaster when both picks lost all chance with scrimmaging on the home turn

Thanks for reading once more and best of luck

Paul

Time may prevent me doing detailed previews later this week but here’s my thoughts for day one – in the words of the song ‘what a smashing, positively dashing spectacle – Ascot op’ning day!

The ground is once again causing some controversy with early watering in advance of weekend showers looking likely the make for sofeter conditions but at time of writing good ground looks most likely on the straight course – with maybe a hint of give on the round track.
Ascot can provide some notable draw bias when weather does get involved but let’s hope the ground does stay fairly even throughout and there aren’t too many hard luck stories for being on the wrong side of the track

Tuesday
2.30 Queen Anne Stakes
Toronado stands out as the obvious Group 1 performer here but too short a price for me on his seasonal reappearance.
It’s hard to know just how good ex States performer Verrazano is – and while he may well improve a bundle on his Newbury UK debut he too seems pretty short on that form alone. Tullius finished ahead of him there on ground that might have been a bit too fast for him and although he is probably only Group 3 level – the comment applies to most of the rest of the field. I’d put him forward as the value ew alternative if the ground remains good but this isn’t really a race to get heavily involved in for me

3.05 Coventry Stakes
Traditionally the top 2yo race of the season so far and the first time that future Guineas performers might put themselves into the spotlight..
Recent O’Brien winners of this race, Power and War Command (stable 3rd string), both came here unbeaten so it seems slightly odd to see War Envoy so short after a 3rd place finish last time behind reopposing Kool Kompany.
Adaay has looked smart in his two wins, while The Wow Signal beat two subsequent winners convincingly on his debut by a wide margin. The latter has since been sold to Al Shaqab racing but while the form looks strong it should be noted the time was only average on quite bad ground.
In terms of price/strength of form I think another Irish raider, the unbeaten Cappella Sansevero comes here with the best credentials. He has done little wrong in 3 starts despite ground being softer than ideal and for me should be vying for favouritism here.

It could be that the better price is because his trainer is less fashionable, a remark that also applies to Cock of the North, a well backed 2nd in the National Stakes at Sandown, where he blew his chances with a slow start but still looked a decent type with his finishing effort. The extra furlong here should suit and quotes of 33/1 look a bit too big to ignore

Recommendations
1pt ew Cappella Sansevero 10/1 fairly general
0.5 pts ew Cock of the North 33/1 Skybet
In both cases look for firms offering ¼ odds rather than 1/5

3.45 Kings Stand Stakes
It’s a while since I’ve seen a 3yo sprinter who has impressed as much as Hot Streak and think he could be a notch above these – his winning time over this course last year was exceptional and his last run suggested he had come on plenty for his debut run this year. Kevin Ryan is adamant this is the best horse he has ever trained – and he’s had some pretty decent ones over the years. The ground isn’t likely to be so firm for that to be an issue for him after the weekend rain.
It would have been nicer to see him drawn closer to the obvious pacesetter, Stepper Point, to give him an early tow, but still hope to see him putting the race to bed before the late efforts of Shea Shea and Sole Power come into play.
I think the latter’s win in this last year was all about the jockey and as good as Richard Hughes is, it’s not ideal for him to be riding this one for the first time in this event.
At very big odds, I could see Caledonia Lady coming late to be a contender for placings. She may be 100/1 but has run well at this meeting before and was placed here as a 2yo at the same odds.

Recommendations
2pts win Hot Streak 4/1 (general)
0.25 pts ew Caledonia Lady 100/1 (general but again avoid anyone offering 1/5 odds)

4.25 St James Palace Stakes
A rematch between 2000 Guineas 1-2 Night of Thunder and Kingman sees the vanquished there the fav to exact revenge. It’s not hard to see why as things may not have gone quite to plan at HQ but it looked an above average classic and I’d be loathe to write off Night Of Thunder too much.
The pace of the race could be the decider with no obvious front runner in the field.
I’ll just be watching it without any financial interest

5.00 Ascot Stakes
A typically competitive long distance handicap.where my eye is drawn to the two at the bottom of the handicap
Brockwell, is fairly consistent in these type of races and, not for the first time, ran as if this extra half mile was what he needed when fancied at Haydock last time.
Ray Ward, with an eyecatching booking of Kieran Fallon, is well worth a try back over a longer trip. His best piece of form was arguably at this meeting last year over 2 miles and he looks well treated on that – the extra distance is an unknown but he shapes as if it may be a bonus

Recommendations
0.5 pts ew each
Brockwell 14/1
Ray Ward 16/1
(both fairly general with standard ¼ 1234)

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes
Mind of Madness looked very decent first time up before getting touched off by Coventry hopeful Adaay last time. Back over 5 furlongs he is a deserved fav and appeals most of those at the forefront of the betting
But at five times the price I have to have an interest in Roudee at 25/1. He beat Midterm Break on his first run before a fine effort from a poor draw at Chester( winner Mukhmal will be a strong contender for the higher grade Norfolk Stakes later this week). He then ran 3rd at Sandown where the softer ground didn’t look ideal.
Back over a less demanding course and with better ground he is the value choice for me with some firms paying out on first 4 places

Recommendation:
0.75 pts ew Roudee 25/1 (365 ¼ odds 1234)

Best of luck to all this week
Any comments welcome as usual

Paul

A few brief thoughts to cover the Oaks and the Derby at Epsom – other commitments prevent me doing a full preview for the meeting.

Fears of soft ground now look to be receding, and ‘good’ looks likely to prevail at time of writing

Friday – Epsom Oaks
Marvellous’s Irish Guineas win appears best form on view but after some hefty quotes of around 8/1 after that win she is now rightly favourite at around 3/1. She ought to be suited by the longer trip
That price is probably about right and better value than Taghrooda, who vies for favourite spot but whose winning form last time has been given no boosts at all by those that she beat. She remains having plenty of potential but too short for me to touch at current odds.
Ihtimal and Volume are likeable types but I feel that 10 furlongs may be their optimum trip. The latter was described as ‘unlikely to be suited by Epsom’ after her latest win – similar comments made by trainer about Marsh Daisy after her Goodwood win – yet both are here. That kind of implies to me that owner pressure may be the reason for their inclusion.
I put up Inchila as an Ante Post bet for the race a while back and though she disappointed behind Volume she got a much worse ride than the winner – she was also subsequently found to be in season. Her maiden win form has been advertised since by those that she beat and lines through that make her similar to Honor Bound and Madame Chiang. Those two are shorter though which still makes Inchila a value outsider for me at 50/1
Of the more fancied runners though, it is Tarfasha who appeals most. The ground is seemingly coming round her way (wouldn’t have wanted soft) and her breeding strongly suggests she needs this trip – half brother Galileo Rock narrowly failed in the Derby and St Leger last year. Dermot Weld’s conviction to run here, despite the owner having Taghrooda, has to be respected. With 17 runners in the field I would add that it will be a minor miracle if we don’t get some hard luck stories about traffic problems in this race!

Verdict
1 Tarfasha
2 Marvellous
3 Inchila

*Already recommended 0.75 pts ew Inchila 50/1 (take that with 365 now if not already with their ¼ 1234)
Will add to that with 1pt ew Tarfasha @15/2 (Sky, Stan James – no extra place available with those as yet)

Saturday
Epsom Derby
My outside fancy for the race, Snow Sky was pulled out earlier today and I’m left with a race where nothing really jumps out as value
There are shades of another previous Ballydoyle winner, The Minstrel , in Australia for me. He too was a top 2yo who was just beaten for speed in the Guineas and needed a step up in distance to show his true worth – but he did come to Epsom a 5/1 shot. Australia’s rivals may be of lower quality but he still looks a skinny price (as low as 5/4) – although he does look the likeliest winner. I can see the layers trying to push him further and if more than 2/1 became available it might be the time to consider an interest.
Of his rivals, there is no stand out. Kingston Hill doesn’t scream as a stayer on his breeding. Australia’s stable companions may provide most opposition and if I were pushed then Orchestra would get my vote for the betting without the fav market. I wouldnt be too concerned that he was the perceived third string in jockey bookings – Seamie Heffernan won the Oaks with Was in similar circumstances and the stable’s Treasure Beach was just touched off by Pour Moi after appearing to be least fancied of the O’Brien runners

It looks a no betting race for me but verdict for what it’s worth is:
1 Australia
2 Orchestra
3 Western Hymn

No other races appealing on Friday’s card but if anything stands out on Friday night for Saturday I will add onto the blog then

Good luck all over the weekend

Paul

Additional selections for Saturday:
3.15 Epsom – The Epsom Dash
Run over the quickest 5 furlong track in the world I would suggest that Even Stevens and Caspian Prince are going to the two to watch coming out of the gate. With his ideal draw in 20, Even Stevens is worth a small ew at 12/1 given the enormous early pace he showed at York last week. As both are drawn high I feel that this could tow Taajub into a decent position from stall 19. He has good form in the past here from worse draws (ignore last run where he broke a blood veseel). So at 20/1 he is also suggested.
Some firms offer 1/4 odds 12345 so use that if you can
suggested 0.5 pts ew each Evens Stevens @ 12/1 and 0.5 pts ew Taajub @20/1