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Royal Ascot Day 3

18 Jun

Course records on Wednesday gave strong suggestion to how fast the ground was. 4mm of water is expected to go on the course tonight but with another fine day forecast tomorrow there could well still be some sting in the ground.
Faster ground may well hamper some tomorrow and there are plenty running whose recent form is on softer surfaces – we could get some surprises!
A few ideas:

3.05 Tercentenary Stakes
Cannock Chase definitely has the look of a Stoute horse going places but he’s priced as if he already has Group race form which he doesn’t. There was a warning after his last win that he may not want conditions too quick.
I will give another chance to my one time Derby fancy Postponed who hasn’t really acted on Newmarket’s dip on his two runs this year (yet is still priced higher than Cloudscape who he beat last time). He has to turn the form around with Barley Mow and Mutakayyef but am hopeful he will on this course. The latter is the main danger for me

1pt ew Postponed 10/1 general

 

3.45 Ribblesdale Stakes
Having put her up at a big price in the Oaks, he less I say about Inchila’s ride in that the better! I am put off that she is brought out again so soon here and so won’t be betting but she is clearly the best horse in the race for me if still on song

4.25 Gold Cup
I’m not too sure that any of the main principals would want fast ground but Leading Light should cope with it better than most.
Brown Panther has run on on fast ground but ideally good or good to soft may have suited better.
Tac de Boistron definitely wants it softer but he was outstayed over this trip by Altano last year and it is the German raider I would have fancied most in a proper stamina test on decent going.
It’s a no bet race though with nothing obvious to set a good gallop – Brown Panther may want to control the pace from the front and as he isn’t a guaranteed stayer that could mean this isn’t a true test
Leading Light the likeliest winner in that scenario but too short for me given he too is unproven over this far

 

5.00 Britannia Stakes
High draws were favoured today and I look for those drawn high who will appreciate a return to faster conditions
Top of the list is Bilimbi who disappointed when fav last time on Haydock soft.
Third Dimension is most feared, having the look of one that could be a Group performer in disguise
At very big odds I’ll also throw in Lyn Valley to the shortlist – back over a shorter trip and with faster ground looking likely to suit (shouldn’t be as far apart from Hors de Combat and Born in Bombay in the betting on Newmarket form)
Suggestions;
1pt ew Bilimbi 14/1 (general but look for firms paying ¼ 12345)
1pt ew Third Dimension 16/1 with same place proviso
0.5 pts ew Lyn Valley 33/1 Paddy Power with their ¼ 123456

 

 

5.35 King George Stakes
Lots of runners here who may prefer good or even softer ; Elite Army, Windshear, Black Schnapps, Art of War all immediately fit that bill
I would beware all of the Mark Johnston runners here who might all be showing improvement back on a fast surface. Marginal preference of these is for Stars Over The Sea. He has fluffed his lines on the last two occasions – missing the start at Epsom and running too free at Chester. Quotes of 25/1+ are just a bit too big

Suggestion

0.5pts ew Stars Over The Sea 28/1 (365)

 

 

Best of luck once more and thanks for reading

Paul

 
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Posted by on June 18, 2014 in Uncategorized

 

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