Monthly Archives: March 2026

Cheltenham Festival 2026 – Tuesday and Wednesday thoughts

For any annual followers of my Cheltenham musings – welcome back!       

As per usual, I’ll try to work through all races again highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll always have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself (if I can get on which is sometimes easier said than done with some firms). Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.

I’ve had to be less active on my social media accounts this winter (Winter Olympics has kept my compiling head too busy earlier this year) and there are very few early picks put up this year. It would be very hard to ever come close to matching last year’s ante post 100/1 winner in any case! I will try to put up any extra thoughts throughout the meeting on X or Blue Sky (account details at bottom of this post). (Vanillier in Wednesday’s Cross Country Chase and Bold Endeavour in Thursday’s Pertemps being the only two I’ve put up in advance on X recently – price of 25/1 now well gone on the latter)

I’m really pleased to see that Bryan Gault is still doing his excellent www.gaultstats.com site again this year. Once again I can thoroughly recommend for anyone looking to explore the statistical angles on Festival races. I’ve done pretty well following pointers from these in the past. There is little point for me going into them too deeply myself when they have been done so well by Bryan. Please don’t forget to donate though if you find this site useful.

Whilst stats are always in my thoughts, I don’t rely on them solely though. I do mix them in with what I’ve seen with my own eyes on previous form and from nearly 50 years of watching the Festival.

Note that there has been some tinkering with race schedules again this year. Some races have moved to different time slots and indeed different days from past meetings.

Centrepiece races remain at their new 4pm slot each day – an initiative that was brought in last year

Ground is looking fairly certain to start as Good to Soft at this stage. The lead up has been relatively dry and any Soft patches are likely to disappear. If the course continues to dry out we can expect some watering to try and maintain it at this kind of level. A course walk by Nicky Henderson on Sunday seemed to reveal it was more Good than Soft in many areas.

Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival

In the past couple of years I’ve tried to keep a track on how certain big trainers profit/loss records have looked over the handicaps. Each way is calculated on assumption that 6 places are paid in handicaps – which was very common until last year. There may be the odd 6^th place here where they may not be paid out though

Over the past 6 years some prominent results are here. Main things to note would be the P/L sucess of Dan Skelton in handicaps (books are aware of this though and its factored into prices regularly); the consistent profit made by backing Nicky Henderson horses in hurdles handicaps; the lack of sucess backing Willie Mullins horses blind in hcaps (particularly chases)

For last year 2025 I also added Gavin Cromwell who is becoming more and more of one to watch at this meeting. Henry De Bromhead’s handicap runners are notable here. He didnt have any winners from his 7 handicap runners but 6 of them were placed

Another things that is different this year – and which the course kept quiet until the Sunday before – appeared recently.

This could be quite significant to some hurdle results. A longer run in with an uphill finish may make stamina more of an asset for one. The hurdle seems to have been moved to avoid a patch of false ground

I’m covering the first two days here where all declarations are now out

Let’s start with the opening day on Tuesday

DAY 1

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2026-03-10.  *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses

One thing to note immediately here is that the meeting start a little bit earlier in the year than usual on March 10^th. This may be significant as it is the birthday of leading owner JP McManus and I wonder if some running plans have been altered to fit in with that. If you are reading JP – Happy 75^th Birthday …..and please don’t forget to message to let me know who you are backing 😉

1.20 Sky Bet Supreme Novices Hurdle.

12 runners have been declared to face the Cheltenham roar in the traditional opener. It’s a strong looking field that has a more competitive look than a few recent renewals.

My thoughts on the main contenders in current market order.

OLD PARK STAR. Has been ante post favourite for a while. He wasn’t an obvious type for the race at the beginning of the season but marked himself down as a serious contender with an authoritative here (course form box ticked) before Christmas. He then impressed again when leading all the way and with some pinpoint jumping at Haydock. He deserves to be favourite but it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank when being taken on for the lead here

MIGHTY PARK. The hype contender this year from the Willie Mullins camp. His race target wasn’t clear until a few days ago when his price fell dramatically. His price is based on rumours that he is the next big star to come from the Mullins arsenal. You would have to be a firm follower of that hype to be backing him though at around 7/2. He has only won one weak hurdle race where he wasn’t challenged at all. He could be ‘the second coming’ but he has to prove his jumping here with top flight company around him in a pressure cooker atmosphere. I’d want much bigger odds to be at all interested

TALK THE TALK. Again he wasn’t a definite contender for this until confirmed at the final declarations despite his trainer being adamant this was the race he was aiming for. Could well have won both of the strongest trial races for this at Leopardstown but for an awkward fall over Christmas. Was given a bit of a careful ride to help his jumping issues last time out and did really well to make up ground and win from a slow pace. His jumping would remain a potential Achilles heel but that last run should have helped

EL CAIROS. An eyecatcher when 5^th in last years Festival Bumper when he looked like he should have gone close to winning but for his amateur rider looking like he was doing his best to stay on board at the speed he was going. Subsequently sold for a big sum and he looked sure to win impressively first time out this year but for another final hurdle blip. Won a minor race easily since but again nearly messed it up at the final hurdle. His hurdling generally has looked slick but it’s just when quickening up and jumping that a weakness has been seen. Has recorded 38mph when in full charge this season – something beyond the others so far.

MYDADDYPADDY. Was all the rage for this before his bubble was blown by Idaho Sun at Aintree. That was the first time he had come off the bridle and he found a battle hardened rival too much (Idaho Sun sadly injured and not able to renew rivalry). It was still a good run and he isn’t out of this but his official mark is 12 lb less than Old Park Star’s

LEADER D’ALLIER. Mullins has another contender here with stable jockey Paul Townend on board (Townend can’t ride Mighty Park who has a retained jockey). His defeat by Ballyfad earlier this season gives him something to find with Talk the Talk though

SOBER GLORY. Has looked a really good horse in winning 7 of his 8 races. A disappointing defeat – with no real explanation behind it – at Sandown being his only blot. He likes to run from the front and doesn’t stop. I do worry a little however when I see all his form is at Newbury and Chepstow and hasn’t raced here. Some will point to the fact his last winning time at Newbury was 4 seconds quicker than Tutti Quanti’s win in the prestigious Tote Gold Trophy that day. We must bear in mind though that the weather was filthy that day and by the time the other race was run there had been a lot of rain at the track – conditions were probably not like-for-like. Soft ground does seem to be his preference and he’s not likley to get it here

BARON NOIR. Maybe a bit of an outsider at around 33/1 but he deserves mentioning. The novice hurdle he was 2^nd in at Warwick was a very strong race in my opinion. He raced freely there and has done in other races but his talent has got him through. The stronger pace here should get him settled and we can see what he is made of. He was good enough to beat El Cairos in the big Punchestown bumper last season so we know the engine is there. I don’t think his mark of 130 really reflects his talent and there could well be a 140+ horse in there.

The other four runners – EACHTOTHEIROWN, KOKTAIL BRUT, SAGEBOROUGH and TOO BOSSY FOR US are all useful in their own right – but it would be a surprise for me to see any of them winning

The recommendations are

(the last bet ideally with firms who offer 4 places each on this race)

*****

2.00 Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy

This race has been billed as a face-off between Kopek Des Bordes and Lulamba for a long while and they have both made it here.

It didn’t always look likely for the former who won the Supreme last year. He’s had an interrupted preparation but connections sound bullish again now and he has moved into favouristism.

Lulamba was 2^nd in last season’s Triumph Hurdle and has flourished as a chaser this season.

Kopek Des Bordes did look a serious horse over hurdles last year but missing his intended prep race puts me off having any strong view here.

His stablemate Kargese won at the Festival last year and did have her prep race at Leopardstown. That was a really strongly run event in deep ground though which she’ll be doing well to have not been left with a mark from.

I’m not sure Mambonumberfive will be suited by this course as he is such a big horse and has been kept to flat tracks so far. Steel Ally is a likely pace angle for this race but I’m also mindful that he is now 8 years old and has been kept away from this track so far in his career

I would have put up Jax Junior as the each way pick at a big price if there were 3 places available but not it’s down to 7 runners that option has gone. He has impressed me a lot in his last two wins but he will need to step up again to reach the level of the two favourites. He was running well in the Albert Bartlett here last year until stamina became a factor (no concern here over a much shorter trip).He’d be the one I’d be looking for in any markets offered without the two favourites

Selection; If pushed I’d veer towards the proven form of Lulamba this season. For betting I’d just be looking to find Jax Junior in a market without the two favs though

*****

2.40 McCoy Contractors Juvenile Hcap Hurdle

This did used to be the last race on the opening day but now moved forward.

There are lots of potential plots here and it’s unlikely I’ll be betting at current prices.

My old system of finding the best flat horse used to work well until French breds started to muddy the waters. There is no definitive stand out flat performer here but top weight Barbizon had the highest rating of 94 on the level (and at least gets 5lb claimed off his back here). Saratoga, Dignam, Winston Junior, Glen to Glen, Ammes and Munsif (current reserve…he may be out of race by Monday afternoon if nothing drops out) were all close behind him on flat ratings.

Of these Saratoga and Munsif were 2^nd and 3^rd in a recent Naas race that has always been a good pointer for this. (Munsif I suspect may well show improvement on the better ground here and with the ‘notoriety’ of his stable’s plots….I won’t say any more on that!)

Joseph O’Brien trained the winner last year and his Glen to Glen won the same prep race so must be a factor. I’d also then have to bring in Ole Ole who isn’t far behind him on form and comes from the stable that produced a 50/1 second last year.

Ammes, from the James Owen stable, has a very similar look to last season’s 3^rd from the same stable. The booking of Sean Bowen is notable there

If you fancy him or Winston Junior (another I couldn’t put anyone off), note it also ties in with Minella Study’s chances in Fridays Triumph Hurdle. It’s worth considering some related doubles there as I mentioned for the first race with that in mind

It’s a difficult race. If pushed for a selection I might be veering towards Winston Junior or Ammes as I think the Irish runners haven’t been given the best of it by the UK handicapper

******

3.20 Trustmarque Ultima Hcap Chase

This race is an old favourite of mine as the stats tended to point me in the way of horses carrying less than 11 stones. That would take out the top 13 in the field for me right away but it has to be said that the skew towards lower weights it quite as dramatic as it once was.

At the top of the weights we do have some classy performers. I think Handstands could be the best but his only run at the course was a disappointing one and I have yet to be convinced this track will suit him

Top weight Iroko is the current favourite for the Grand National so I wonder if this is just a prep race and they will be leaving something to work on with Aintree in mind.

The Green and Gold colours of JP will also be worn by current favourite Jagwar. He is a big horse who will have no issues carrying 11st 9lbs and has winning course form. The downsides would be his low price of around 7/2 and the fact that his regular jockey is on Iroko (can understand why with Grand National in mind)

Myretown won this race impressively last year when he would have comfortable suited the low weight stats carrying just 10st 3lbs. His mark is 15 pounds higher now but he still gets in under 11 stones (showing that this is a better quality race). His old stablemate Corach rambler won back-to-back renewals which will make him popular. His failure to complte in two of his three races thios season is the undoubted negative,

I put up The Short Go each way in this race last year as he looked to be well suited to the course and he paid out place money. He would have been the main pick for me again until the UK handicapper dealt him a fair blow by putting him 6 lbs higher than last year. He has also had a wind op since his last run – we just don’t know if that will be a positive or negative though until he runs.

My main selection sits near the bottom of the handicap as I often like in this race.

Knight of Allen is actually having to carry 4lb more than he should be but for me he arguably achieved more than the mark of 131 he carries here when 4^th against much higher rated rivals on his last venture at this course. He was running on well at the finish then and giving 5 pounds to 137 rated Califet En Vol who finished 5 lengths in front of him (and that one has since won a competitive Kempton handicap). The extra distance here ought to suit him and it’s noteworthy that the Williams family have won this race in the past with another 6 year old (Coo Star Sivola)

I’ve found Jane Williams quite a frustrating trainer to follow in the past but the addition of Ciaran Gethings as stable jockey this season has been a huge factor in seeing much better results. Ciaran should be riding at this lowest weight here. He ran well enough at Newbury over 3 mils last time but I doubt that heavy ground there was ideal (his brother Galahad Quest performed best on decent ground)

Recommendation

The main bet though for me is 1pt ew KNIGHT OF ALLEN (25/1 available with Skybet whoi pay 7 places – would still happily take 22/1 with 6 places elsewhere)

*****

4.00 Unibet Champion Hurdle

The centrepiece event was a very successful one for me last year with Golden Ace backed ante post at 100/1.

She had luck on her side when State Man fell at the last but she also did well to avoid his fall and that of Constitution Hill earlier which slightly took her out of position.

She again got lauded as ‘lucky’ when she won the Fighting Fifth Hurdle earlier this season when The New Lion fell. To my eyes she may well have won that encounter anyway as The New Lion was going no better.

She beat Brighterdayshead in the Champion Hurdle last year and in the Mares Novice Hurdle the season. Supposedly the slow pace was against Elliott’s mare that time but it won’t have suited the Ace that much either. My inclination is more that this course isn’t ideal for Brighterdaysahead

In short I think Golden Ace remains a mare who has been underestimated throughout her career – even by the official handicapper who gives her a mark of 152….I would have her more like 156 or 157.

I think she will go close again but admit to be being very worried about the presence of Lossiemouth in this year’s race. The Mullins star mare has avoided this race for 2 years to plunder the Mares Hurdle instead and she has a 4/4 record at Cheltenham. Connections have always seemed more enthused about getting an obvious win than a probable win so that fact she runs here suggest they are happy. A longer trip may be her optimum but with the errant stablemate Anzadam in the field there is always the chance of pace being injected into this race. Cheekpieces have been applied this time to help her with this bigger test of speed. A slight concern may be if the ground continues to dry. She was badly tapped for toe at Kempton last season and good ground may not be ideal for her.

Patrick Mullins couldn’t control that one earlier this season at Leopardstown and we could see similar here. The addition of Tutti Quanti into the race would also seem to aid this race not being run at a crawl.

Both Tutti Quanti and Alexei are interesting outsiders who have elevated themselves to this level after impressive handicap wins earlier this season. I would have a small concern about their last runs being in bad ground in February though (particularly in the case of the latter who may have had an unnecessarily hard race at Wincanton)

******

4.40 Sun Racing Plate Hcap Chase

Not a handicap that excites me too much

Both Madara (looks a likely Dan Skelton targeted runner) and McLaurey (potential Emmet Mullins plot) are just priced too much in expectation of their runs at around 4/1 to interest me.

At a better price, Downmexicoway is unexposed at this trip and the De Bromhead stable did very well with placings in handicaps at this meeting last year (see my earlier table). I’m not sure he is hiding too much from a mark of 145 but he was given an easy time last time out when not getting involved in the pace war of the Irish Arkle principals

At bigger odds I’d just thrown in O’Moore Park at around 16/1 as better value. His last run wasn’t anything to write home about but he’s only a pound higher than when placed at 66/1 in the novices handicap last year. Decent ground and this course seem to bring out the best in him. Unlikely I’ll be betting though in this event.

Selections if pushed – Downmexicoway and O’Moore Park

******

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap

This is the second year of this race being run as a handicap. Eveything went to plan when Haiti Coleurs dominated the race last year. This year there is no standout contender for me though. I had one fancy who declined to take join the field at the final stage

Winning connections from last year field Newton Tornado this time. But whilst Haiti won well on the course during his preps, Newton Tornado fell. He doesn’t give me the same feeling as an out and out galloper whose jumping will put the rest to the sword. In his defence, we must note that trainer Rebecca Curtis has a good record in handicaps from quite a small sample over the year

Backersackme is another likely plot horse. The combination of Emmet Mullins training and Paul Byrne owning will often have bookies running for cover and his price reflects that.

Wade Out is also well found in the market but he is a horse who really makes life hard for his jockey. Don’t be surprised to see him under hard driving from a long way out and then just plugging on through beaten horses. If you fancy his chances betting on the Exchange in running may give you a much bigger price.

Iceberg Theory (trainer knows how to lay one out for handicap here) and One Big Bang (3^rd over a trip that was far too inadequate for him last time but may want softer ground) would be of more interest to me but I don’t feel strongly enough about either to get involved.

There are a lot of stamina questions to be answered in this race – and quite a few who like to front run. It should come down to who has the best stamina reserves in the final half mile

Selection if pushed would be Iceberg Theory

******************************

******

That’s Day 1 thoughts completed now onto Wednesday’s musings for Day 2…………

Hopefully there is some profit in the bank by now.

Note that as I write these declarations have only just come out. Markets may take some time to be updated and so revised odds may not be widespread until later on Monday afternoon

1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle

It’s 2017 since anything with a double figure price won this (Willoughby Court) and we have to go back to First Lieutenant in 2011 to find a winner who had a handicap mark of less than 146 winning.

That stat alone quickly whittles this down to three runners; Ballyfad (149), Skylight Hustle (148) and King Rasko Grey (148).

The main UK hope, No Drama This End comes in with a mark of 144. He might well be better than that but his most impressive performances have come of softer ground that what he may face here.

As mentioned already for the opening race on day 1, I’ve already given away my thoughts a little here in the expectation that Talk The Talk runs well there.

Ballyfad was just touched off by that horse last time and had King Rasko Grey just behind him.

Skylight Hustle was vying for the lead with Talk The Talk when that one fell in his previous race. There may not have been much between them.

It was always likely to be a tough choice to make for stable jockey Jack Kennedy here. Both Elliott horses have yet to perform at this trip over hurdles but both were ready winners of Point to Points over 3 miles to give encouragement that the extra distance will be in their favour. (Sir Gerhard a recent winner of this race came in with the same profile). He picked Ballyfad – but as that is owned by the stable’s main patron it could have some bearing. There may not be that much between them

As also noted from day one musings, if Baron Noir runs well it’s a pointer for Bossman Jack. He looked a work in progress on his hurdles debut at Warwick and has impressed in 2 wins since. Those wins aren’t at the level of this race and his handicap rating of 134 is somewhat shy of what would be required to win this. I am surprised that Dan Skelton hasn’t gone down the handicap route with that mark so his entry here is evident of the regard he is held in and the step up in trip should see more improvement.

******

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase

Possibly my biggest ante post interest here comes in the form of Wendigo who really caught my eye with his 3^rd place at Kempton over Christmas. I have been backing this one at far bigger prices than what is available now but still think he is the most solid option.

It was fairly clear in that race that the track was too quick for him and he was on the backfoot from some way out but he stuck to it in such a way that I felt sure he would turn the form around with the winner (Kitzbuhel) back at this meeting. His run was very reminiscent of subsequent Gold Cup winner Native River’s effort back in 2015. There have been several beaten horses in that Feltham Chase that have come on to win this race (Bobs Worth immediately springing to mind)

Wendigo’s run in last season Albert Bartlett Hurdle also gives confidence that this track suits him. He was going very well there and looking likely to be a big contender until nearly taken out of the race by The Big Westerner before the home turn. He wouldn’t have won but I feel sure he would have been up with her for second if not for that incident. The Big Westerner would be a threat again but with her need for soft ground unlikely to be fulfilled her chance may diminish

At the time I was backing, Final Demand was a short priced favourite for this race. He has since disappointed in his prep race when beaten by Kaid d’Authie and Western Fold and the race does have more of an open look now. Final Demand may well bounce back from that but he does have something to prove at this course. His 3^rd place in the Turners Hurdle last year was arguably his weakest hurdles performance and might indicate the track doesn’t suit him. Kaid d’Authie was also pulled up on his only start here so also has a course question to answer.

Western Fold was second in this race. He doesn’t have any experience on this course so that negative factor can’t be applied. He may improve for the better ground so rates a threat though whether he is as strong a stayer as my selection is debatable. He does hold another Irish challenger Oscars Brother on earlier form (that one may prefer softer ground)

Romeo Coolio was considered an unlikely contender for this race until very recently but once confirmed he became favourite. He has yet to race over this trip and he may well be suited by it in time but I can’t be enthused about his chances this time. He had a very hard race last time out in deep ground. That was his 4^th race this season and the chances of it leaving a mark must be high. There is a strong sense that his presence here is more about the owner wanting a runner than the trainer wanting to run.

*****

2.40 BetMGM Cup Hcap Hurdle

Firstly there is a bit of schadenfrude here that the arch plotter Charles Byrnes’s had had his second fancied handicap runner appear as a reserve. I Started A Joke – like Munsif – on Tuesday needs something to drop out to get a run. I could feel sorry for other connections but less so for this one!

It’s not a race that appeals to me much for betting at the moment and I’d want the 6 places to be offered at least for any each ways bets.

I’m naturally drawn to two stables from P/L stats

Nicky Henderson has done very well here in tha past and fields Lucky Place, Jingko Blue and Iberico Lord. Lucky Place has done well in this race before but he hasn’t looked the same horse since an unsuccessful chasing spell. Jingko Blue seems to be fancied by the stable if preview night chat can be believed but I’m struggling to warm to his chances based on his previous Festival effort. Iberico Lord may be the strongest of his runners having come back to form last time out and having winning form in the past on this course (albeit over a shorter trip)

Henry De Bromhead’s handicap record from last year has already been mentioned and he also fields three. Ballyadam was 3rd last year but he is now 11 years old and must be vulnerable off a high weight to younger improvers. Beckett Rock was also engaged in handicap chases at this meeting off a lower mark but it’s significant he turns up here where he was 6th last year. Stable jockey, Darragh O’Keeffe has picked Forty Coats however. His form this season isn’t enticing but it is notable that cheekpieces are added for the first time here. His stand out piece of form was his 4th in the Turners Novice Hurdle here last year so the course form box is ticked. Last year’s winner Jimmy Du Seuil also had his previous best performance in that race

****

3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Not a race I normally have a view on but I did post this a couple of weeks back on X

Last year Vanillier got in a lovely position early one and then Sean Flanagan took his hands off the wheel to look around behind him. He nearly rain off the track by doing that and totally lost his position. I hope and expect there will be full control at the wheel this year. He is 11 now but has shown the ability is still there at Punchestown this season and is a previous Festival winner. There is a caveat that if the ground dries out a lot it may not be ideal. At the time of putting this out 1/4 odds 1234 were still available. With only 14 declared it’s more likely to see 1/5th odds for 4 places now when prices are revised

*****

4.00 Bet MGM Queen Mother Champions Chase

This race lost some competitivity when last year’s winner Marine Nationale was ruled out last week. It should leave the race at the mercy of Majborough who would surely have won last year’s Arkle Trophy but for a massive blunder 2 fences out. He still recovered enough to be involved in the finish.

He looked really good last time out and I feel his biggest danger again would be the fences. I think he’ll win with a clear round.

I couldn’t imagine L’Eau Du Sud not being placed in that Arkle but he ended up 4^th after taking the race to Majborough. He would appear the main danger but I’d be worried again he might make himself vulnerable if being ridden to beat the favourite

Il Etait Temps has always shown his best form away from this track. On ratings he would be the main threat but he is coming here off a very bad fall on his last run which may have some effect

Quilixios may have been second last year but for falling but he hasn’t run since then. Captain Guinness is a past winner but is now 11 years old and his best days appear to be behind him

There are two at big prices I like to run well. Saint Segal has thrived this year under Ciaran Gethings and has a high cruising speed that could be suited by following Majborough’s pace. Brookie may be total outsider of the field but he badly needs good ground (it was far worse than good to soft last time he ran). I can see him being ridden to pick up some pieces and claim some place prize money here if ground continues to dry out

******

4.40 Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Hcap Chase

Nicky Henderson hasn’t aimed one for the race named after his father this year so that angle can’t be used.

Jazzy Matty won the race last year (his second Festival win) and comes back to defend his title off an 8lb higher mark. It’s his first run after a wind operation though so I’m not sure if everything has gone to plan with his preparations.

Ben Pauling has been very bullish about the talents of Vanderpoel in the run up to this but I would have liked to see some course form.

This isn’t a race I have a big view in but I’ve followed Release the Beast for a while as he has looked a work in progress for Paul Nolan – a trainer who knows how to win handicaps here. He hasn’t set foot beyond the Irish Sea in his career yet but I notice both a hood and a tongue tie are now added. I would have preferred the UK handicapper to have been a bit more lenient – but if he had he probbaly wouldnt have got in at the foor of the handicap here.

I would not be at all surprised to see him finally realise the potential he has shown a few times in his career to date

Selection; Release the Beast

*****

5.20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper

An immediate pass for me for betting. Very little collateral form and all of these will be facing a new test in a 22 runner field run at a solid pace.

A few notes.

Bass Hunter has looked very talented in two wins but if he runs from the front as he did at Ascot he will do well to get home unless he is absolutely top drawer.

Quiryn (one of 4 from the Mullins stable) was bred to run on the flat but an aversion to starting stalls curtailed that plan. He certainly looked talented but quirky with it on his only run to date. The engine may be there but the temperament to deal with this occasion is a question mark

Mets Ta Ceinture was a big money buy for Dan Skelton and makes her UK debut here. She has strong French bumper form and as a 4 yo filly gets lots of weight from the others. It’s notable that dan has pitched her in so deep so quickly.

Selection if pushed – Mets Ta Ceinture

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,

Paul

(You’ll find me on X as @Senor_Moodoir, on Blue Sky @senormoodoir.bsky.social)