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Aintree Grand National meeting 2025

30 Mar

An extra post on the blog here to cover the three races run over the National fences at Aintree next week.

I’ve done a detailed post on the Grand National itself in the past where it was often a race where the winner could be found by analysing previous stats.

The changes in the race made over the big fences last year, however, have created a much easier test in my opinion. Factors like weight and age and even jumping ability are now less important. I’m largely considering historical statistics to be a bit meaningless now with this in mind.

The most recent runnings of the race have seen far more runners on contention in the later stages than there used to be. This was ramped up even more last year. Any number of runners were in contention in the Grand National and the Topham Trophy at the home turn last year. I’m expecting to see the same again now with ground conditions likely to be even better than they were last year.

It’s also worth noting that the easing of the fences – and in particularly the stretch of the course leading up to and including Bechers Brook – has now meant there is far more advantage than there used to be in keeping to the inside of the track. This was once the ‘brave man’s route’. Now it should be everyone’s favoured route as they try to save ground in order to get a good line coming into the Canal Turn. At this fence, going too wide could then lose you the race in one fell swoop.

This ‘golden highway’ does potentially create another issue if a prominent racer falls as it could cause lots of traffic issues behind. I’d be quite keen with this in mind to support prominent racers who can stay out of trouble slightly more.

The going on the track is currently swaying between good to soft and good. Updates can be found throughout the week here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/the-grand-national/racing/grand-national-the-going/. The weather forecast doesn’t show any rain coming and suggests the course will dry out. We’ve had Grand Nationals on firm ground in the past – but those days are long gone now as stewards will be keen to keep the ground no faster than Good. Expect watering to take place throughout the week – hopefully not too much to make the ground tacky or dead though!. As long as we get no unexpected downpours then a Good ground meeting looks likely at this stage

With these points in mind onto some thoughts for next week’s three races over the ‘not so big now’ fences.

*****

Thursday – 4.05 Foxhunters Chase

Final declarations for this will appear on Tuesday morning at around 1030

There is one obvious contender here for me. Lifetime Ambition has already run twice around this course when he was a high class handicapper. The fences gave him no terrors then – an ‘unseated rider’ in the 2023 Grand National was because a loose horse ran in front of him. Prior to that he had been jumping well in 2nd place. Previously he had been 4th over this trip when the weight he was giving away to his rivals told in later stages (Percussion ½ length ahead will be 18 pounds worse off here).

Lifetime Ambition entered the hunter chase ranks last season but wasn’t qualified to run in this race then. Even back then, connections were mooting this 2025 version as his aim, and he’s finally made it here.

The presence of Rob James on board is a bonus in race that has amateur riders of various abilities. Rob is very capable and won the Cheltenham Festival version of this race recently.

Whilst the selection was beaten by Willitgoahead earlier this season over a longer trip, I have no doubt that his season will have been geared to this race and he’ll be a much improved model now.

The ground conditions look likely to suit and he ticks all the boxes here for me as he should be racing prominently from the off

My Drogo is the one horse in the field who may have displayed higher class form in the past. This comes with fragility though that curtailed his chasing career after looking such a good early prospect.

He has yet to tackle these fences but if he does, I’d be most concerned about him as a danger

Selection: Lifetime Ambition – best price 6/1 at time of writing with 365, Ladbrokes and Corals

Friday – 4.05 Topham Handicap Chase

The ‘mini’ Grand National over a shorter trip is always a good appetiser for what is coming the day after.

I would have looked at statistics to help again here in past but after last year’s race I’m inclined to ignore them.

Lounge Lizard was my fancy for that race then but a late injury took him out of the race the day before. My blog last year details why I liked him so much after a previous performance where he seemed to really light up at the course.

I have to support him again after his warm up race saw him returning to the form I was hoping to see. Connections had blamed the ground being too soft before then so I’m not expecting that issue here. He races prominently and stays further than this trip so am hoping he’ll be bang in contention in the final stages. I’m hoping to see Jonathan Burke or Sam Twiston-Davies get the leg-up when final declarations are released on Wednesday morning. They both know him well

At Cheltenham over the New Year I was also taken by Marble Sands’s performance in front of him. He was second then but on much softer ground than he would like. He went into the notebook as one to watch in a decent handicap when the ground was better.

That day has come here as the ground and trip look ideal. I’m hoping that Kielan Woods is on board for this test. He hasn’t raced over these fences before and would race less prominently so I would be hoping for a trouble free passage.

It’s a competitive race and danger are aplenty but these two will do for me at the prices available

Selections; Lounge Lizard (25/1 best current price available with 365 and Skybet) and Marble Sands (20/1 Skybet only)

Saturday 4.00 Grand National

The ‘big one’. It looked such a different race last year but my takeout was that the 1st 4 home were all previous Grade 1 chase winners. That suggested that class came to the fore. Weight could be carried more effectively over these new style fences. In the past I would have favoured anything carrying 11 stone or less but this has become ever more inconsequential in recent years. Being aged 9 or 10 and having plenty of experience were also factors that used to matter – much less so now since 7yo Noble Yeats won.

I’m therefore inclined to look for the Grade 1 chase winners again and there are 9 currently declared.

They are:

I Am Maximus – last year’s winner but has a big weight this year after that and has been out of form so far this year.

Royale Pagaille – needs it very soft and won’t get that.

Grangeclare West – high enough weighted here for me on what he has achieved so far

Hewick. Was due to be top weight last year but taken out. The ground is looking likely to be right up his street. This former King George winner avoided Cheltenham and had a lovely preparation win. I wouldn’t have fancied him carrying 11st 7lb in the old style race and the fences would have been a test for this small horse then – he can get away with these things now though in this new style race

Minella Indo – Former Gold Cup winner and placed last year. He is 12 now though and age is going in the wrong direction

Capodanno – Has done this race twice and didn’t get home both times. May yet race in the Topham on Friday instead (MONDAY MORNING UPDATE – CAPODANNO NOT IN THE 5 DAY DECLARATIONS AND WON’T NOW RUN HERE)

Conflated. Very much on the downgrade with his form this year and may struggle to stay even without that

Bravemansgame. Previous King George winner and Gold Cup second. Not the force he was this season but his mark has dropped to allow for that. Similar profile in that regard to last year’s placed horses

Chantry House. ‘Enigmatic’ comes to mind here and can see him not liking this test. His form is very in and out now – and mostly ‘out’

There are 3 other Grade 1 winner in the field but those wins came over hurdles. Appreciate It and Stay Away Fay wouldn’t be ones I’d be looking at but a case can be made for Vanillier who was second in this race two years ago. He didn’t look so happy in the race last year but he has looked a bit reformed recently. He may well have beaten Stumptown in Cheltenham’s Cross Country Chase but for his rider taking the wrong course. He still managed to be 3rd despite that huge blip. The decent ground should be to his liking.

Iroko and Intense Raffles would be too young at 7 years old on old statistics but we can forget that here now. They have to be considered strong contenders and look to have had their preparations this season fine-tuned for this race. However both would seem to prefer soft ground and that is looking unlikely now. If the rains did somehow comes they would be more dangerous for me.

The other I have to consider at a big price is Threeunderthrufive. He doesn’t have the Grade 1 form I was looking for but his form this season is the best of his career. He is officially 5 pounds well in here after his last run – he should be racing of 158 but has 153. That alone has to give him some chance and being previously placed in the Scottish Grand National should mean he will have no problem staying this trip.

Final declarations will be released on Thursday morning but my shortlist at this stage in order of preference is

Hewick (best price 10/1 currently)

Vanillier (14/1 best in a coupld of places)

Threunderthrufive (66/1 ew with 5 places in several places)

Bravemansgame (50/1 ew with 5 places available)

I’d normally be expecting some firms to go to 6 places on the day (only Skybet currently). However many firm that I expected to do that at Cheltenham didn’t – so it’s not a given. Bet365, Skybet, Paddy Power, Hills, Unibet and Betfred all amongst the firms who are already Non Runner No Bet though. If you back now and it doesn’t run then stakes will be returned – take car if using others that they have the same rule.

I’ll no doubt be active on Blue Sky app with any extra bits of interest I spot during the meeting next week for other races on the traditional Mildmay course (@senormoodoir.bsky.social)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back next week

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 30, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 4

13 Mar

Ground appears to be proper Good to Soft so far on Day 3 – there should be no excuses from anyone. I’m assuming we’ll have similar tomorrow in this analysis below

Onto the final day’s action:

Friday’s card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-14

Odds comparisons here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-14-cheltenham

1.20 JCB Triumph Hurdle

This feels like a Triumph Hurdle of yesteryear with 18 runners and some firms offering 4 places!

Before Tuesday’s 4yo handicap hurdle was added to this meeting in it often had big fields – and produced shock results. Class has generally come to the fore since.

Willie Mullins fields a staggering 11 runners – 3 of which have yet to face a hurdle in public.

I would hope having so many big outsiders doesn’t cause traffic problems but I think there will be a strong pace here which should soon sort out the wheat from the chaff.

I don’t think the form of the Irish runners here is quite as strong as the home side and this largely revolves around the two at the front of the market.

East India Dock (the younger brother of Tuesday’s Champion Hurdle second Burdett Road) was a decent staying type on the flat but has blossomed since going hurdling. I don’t think you will see a quicker and more efficient jumper in this field and he can gain lengths on his rivals in a quickly run race. He’s made the running himself thus far but the addition of stablemate Opec, who looks sure to take them along at a good clip, looks a very good move.

This will test the jumping of main rival Lulamba, who looks more of a chasing type going forward – albeit a very useful one.

East India Dock’s course form and his quick hurdling sways it for me and I think Lulamba will need to be out of the very top drawer to beat him whilst the ground is on the better side here.

It would be great to see the Gredley family finally rewarded with a Cheltenham winner here after all the effort they have been putting into National Hunt racing in the past couple of years. Previously, the family were very flat racing orientated (more seasoned followers will remember User Friendly winning the Oaks and the Arc de Triomphe)

I have had a little ante post interest on Mondo Man earlier this year before he ran his first hurdling race. He was a top class horse on the flat but is held by Lulamba on Ascot running.

He has spoilt his chances in both races by pulling too hard – he was quirky on the flat as well.

His price of around 33/1 does reflect his chance on hurdling form so far. However, the likely strong pace here, and the addition of Brian Hughes in the saddle, gives him his best chance to actually settle in a race.

If he does behave himself and Brian can switch him off, he has the class to be a factor. We’ll know soon into the race whether he has a chance or not.

Selection; Heart may be ruling head slightly here but I’m on the side of East India Dock. A general price of around 2/1 is about right whilst not offering excessive value. A more speculative punt would be Mondo Man if he can finally settle in a race

Recommendation

I can’t see East India Dock out of the first 4 here. He isn’t an each way price at 2/1 but as there is another in the 4.40 who I also can’t see out of the first 4 then an Each way double is recommended – see the 440 write up.

Also 0.5 pt win Mondo Man 33/1 or better

(don’t see the value in each way here – if he doesn’t settle I can’t see him being placed but if he does he has the talent to go close)

*****

2.00 County Handicap Hurdle

A handicap with at least 4 contenders who look to have been laid out for it.

Absurde did the ‘absurd’ by winning comfortably this from last place from a relative slow pace last year. He has plenty of class from the flat and is thoroughly capable of winning again but interesting that Paul Townend opts for Kargese instead from Team Mullins.

Kargese was 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle and is well handicapped off a mark of 141 on that form. She found disappointing little on her seasonal debut though and wouldn’t be winning this on that bare form. However, there may be a lot of improvement to come

I do think it’s a tough ask for 5 year olds like her to win this race and so that also applies to Lark In The Mornin. This one also looks to have been laid out for this race in the same way he was when easily winning on Tuesday’s card last year.

Then we have Valgrand, who represent the Dan Skelton team, who have been so good at providing the winners of this race with well-orchestrated plots in the past. He impressed with fast accurate jumping from the front earlier this season. Then he was held back in two later runs and that jumping prowess couldn’t be seen. The handicapper duly dropped him from 140 to 134 – something we have seen before in the Skelton plotting plan.

Hansard is also worth a mention off his mark of 142 given how well he ran against Champion Hurdle 1-2 Golden Ace and Burdett Road in his last run. Decent ground will suit him but I think a flatter track would be more of his metier

I can make a good case for too many in this race and no great value on any of them so it’s a No Bet race for me

*****

2.40 Mares Chase

Limerick Lace beat Dinoblue in this last year by getting first run and outstaying her on soft ground. The winner hasn’t been in the same form this year and I would expect Dinoblue to turn that form around on this occasion.

Allegorie de Vassy was behind them both last year and narrowly beaten by Dinoblue last time out. That would put her into the mix but she has run a bit below expectations now in 3 visits to this course and I don’t think it really suits here.

It’s also interesting that Keith Donoghue has chosen Brides Hill over Limerick Lace this year. Brides Hill had to be withdrawn from this race last year because of the soft ground. If she were to get her ideal Good ground she could be a proper threat to the favourite. You’d want to be checking the ground on race day here though…her chance lessens considerably if there is some soft in the ground.

*****

3.20 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle (or ‘the Spud race’ as I affectionately call it)

This can be a really tough race for young novices over its longer trip. As such it is probably missing the highest grade novices who went for the shorter Turners Novices Hurdle on Wednesday. Take a look through the roll of honour in the past. You will see some later Gold Cup winners like Minella Indo and Bobs Worth. You’ll see just as many big priced winners who didn’t subsequently progress much further at all though.

If the pace is strong it can be a war of attrition that will favour the real sloggers in the race who haven’t been able to thrive in such conditions until now.

Team Mullins field six and stable jockey has plumped for Jasmin De Vaux, last years Festival Bumper winner. His hurdling career thus far has been highlighted by some quite dire jumping. He may well be the best of these on the gallops but he’ll need to really brush up his hurdling here or will be losing ground too regularly.

He’s also held by Wingmen on his last run. Gordon Elliott’s charge is unproven over this trip but most of them are to be fair here. I think his second at Leopardstown last time though is probably the best piece of form coming in.

Lucinda Russell has won this race before with the ill-fated Brindisi Breeze. She has compared Derryhassen Paddy quite favourably to that one and there was much to like about his recent Windsor win. The Russell team have already struck at this meeting with Myretown and are in good form. Their runner here is big long striding horse and I am a little worried that this course may not suit him – I thought Aintree might have been a better choice. Take note also that he was withdrawn from his prep race at Haydock as the ground was deemed not soft enough. He wouldn’t be a certain runner for me if there is no overnight easing in the ground.

Wendigo will be popular on the back of his second to The New Lion over Christmas – form that was well boosted on Wednesday. His second to Battle Born Lad earlier this season has also been well advertised since.

The Big Westerner is unbeaten and the likely favourite but is short enough for me considering her relative inexperience compared to others here

Team Mullins has won this race before with horses that weren’t the perceived first strings and I like two of his that I think will be ideally suited to the singular test of this race.

Sounds Victorius and Fishery Lane were 4th and 5th in last years Festival Bumper at big odds. Both came up the hill strongly and both look like they need a through test in my eyes. I don’t think either will have had their ideal conditions yet this season. Sounds Victorius was behind Wingman and Jasmin De Vaux at Leopardstown when he couldn’t match a change of pace from others near the home turn. He then stayed on into 5th up the hill.

Both will appreciate a well-run race here which I hope we will get with proven front runner Jax Junior in the field

Recommendations

0.5 pts ew Sounds Victorius 20/1 or better

0.5 pts ew Fishery Lane 20/1 or better

Take the 5 places with Skybet or Paddy Power if you can – otherwise 4 places is widely available elsewhere

*****

4.00 Gold Cup

The centrepiece event of the meeting sees Galopin Des Champs going for his third win. On paper it looks his easiest task so far but the price of around 4/7 reflects that.
If the ground was properly good then Banbridge can be a threat but he is totally unproven over this far around this course…it’s a world away from Kempton’s 3 miles where he won the King George.

If there is more rain and emphasis is more on stamina then Inothewayurthinkin would be of each way interest. He won a handicap here last year easily despite bad jumping. His last run behind Galopin showed better jumping and nothing was staying on stronger at the finish.

If he doesn’t get outpaced it crucial stages. He will come up the hill very strongly and is the only one I can see threatening the favourite…but it does need a strongly run race with some ‘soft’ in the ground for me to see this scenario happening

Selection; Galopin Des Champs is hard to oppose but he is too short a price to recommend. If ground is good to soft or worse, Inothewayurthinkin would be a likely each way play

****

4.40 Hunters Chase

As in previous years, I just don’t follow the point to point scene enough to usuallyhave any great opinion on this race. It’s another amateur riders race where having one of the better jockeys on board would be great advantage.

However, Angels Dawn who is a previous Festival winner with the same rider on board and I would imagine has been laid out for this race. He ticks too many boxes for me to ignore

Four places are offered and as long as he gets round I can’t see him not being placed

Recommendation

Each way double time here with firms who offer 4 places on this race and the 120

2pt ew Double –

East India Dock 2/1 or better 1.20; Angels Dawn 7/2 or better here

****

5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle

Gordon Elliott learn his trace under the tutelage of Martin Pipe and always has something aimed at it. Wodhooh will be popular on the back of her being unbeaten over hurdles and a course win in December that’s worked out very well. She was rewarded with an 11 pound hike to her mark for that and she was best placed to strike from the front in quite a slow race

She would be favourite here if not for the presence of French import Kopeck De Mee who has been massively touted in the run up to the Festival. His mark of 136 is very much a shot in the dark from the handicapper as his form is so hard to gauge. He has been backed though as if he is much better than what he has been given.

We’ve seen this in handicaps from the Mullins team before. They sometimes hose in but other times it hasn’t come off. To take a price of no more than 5/2 in such a competitive race you’d really want to be knowing exactly what the stable know here

The short prices on these two runners mean we should have inflated prices on the rest and with 6 places on offer from several firms, I’ll look more for some each way value.

There are three that take my eye.

Park of Kings has been progressive this season and may well have won last time out at Leopardstown if not being given too much to do. He has been kept off the course since then – probably with this race in mind and avoiding winter deep ground – and should appreciate the strong pace and uphill finish.

No Questions Asked was a very useful bumper horse this season who has improved from race to race over hurdles this year. The form of his Huntingdon second to Califet En Vol was a big leap forward and I think he has the class of a horse with more to offer off his mark of 138

Punctuation has been around a long time and was originally owned by the Queen and once fancied for the Derby! He can be quirky but he does have an engine that can be seen to some effect when the cards fall for him. He has good course form and likes a strongly run race. The Henderson record in handicap hurdles is at the forefront oy mind here and I think there is decent value in him at big odds

Recommendations

0.5 pts each way on each of these with firms offering 6 places with 1/5th odds

Park Of Kings 16/1 currently best price available

No Questions Asked 25/1 best available

Punctuation 50/1 quite widely available right now

That’s a wrap for this weeks action!

Thanks for reading once again. I hope my thoughts have been helpful to some during the week but whatever you have backed, I hope it’s been a profitable festival

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 3

12 Mar

We are reaching the halfway point of the Festival now

The wintry weather forecast came to fruition on Wednesday morning with some snow and sleet early on. This was mixed with sunshine to then help dry it out.

Forecast for remainder of week seems to be dry but with a chance of overnight frosts. It seems unlikely the ground will get softer this week and it may get closer to Good ground. It’s possible that some watering may be done if it does dry out too much

Onto Day 3 action:

Thursday’s card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-13

1.20 Mares Novices Hurdle.

This was a cracking high quality race this year with last year’s winner Golden Ace now a Champion Hurdle winner.

This year the quality seems to have dipped plenty – but that gives us a much bigger field instead.

I doubt anything will be going on to be Champion Hurdle quality in the future.

It’s a race that has produced shocks before when there have been big fields so I’m not going into it with maximum confidence but there are two very useful types from the flat that would be at the top of my shortlist.

If there is a strong pace, it should suit the claims of Sixandahalf. She is a progressive mare from the Gavin Cromwell yard (whose runners have been performing largely well at the meet so far). Stamina would seem to be her forte given her third place in the Irish Cesarewitch.

I just wonder over this two mile trip and the prospect of drying ground that Galileo Dame may have a bit too much zip for her. Joseph O’Brien has already had one 4 year old winner on Tuesday and this one has better form than that during her flat career. She is going the right way over hurdles too and gets a very handy ten pound allowance from the rest of the field.

Aurora Vega is a daughter of Cheltenham legend Quevega, but although she has the highest official mark here of 141, I really can’t see what she has done to merit that.

Diva Luna, was very good in bumpers this year. She disappointed at Sandown in the New Year but the trainer reports she is back to her best now. If so she could be a big player but I wonder if a longer trip would suit.

Jubilee Alpha has strong form this year bit I can’t help but think she needs softer ground

Selection; Galileo Dame is most appealing here to me but the 6/1 that was available last night has all gone now after her trainer got an early winner. 9/2 is the best price right now so I fear the value may have disappeared

****

2.00 Jack Richards Novices Limited Hcap Chase

Another Joseph O’Brien plot is envisaged by the layers here with Nurburgring at the top of the market. On his hurdling form he would have a great chance but I have yet to see anything in his chase performances to suggest he is as good over the larger obstacles. I’d want a double figure price on him to get interested in any way.

The key race for me now came here in December:

Jango Baie has hardly done this form any harm by winning the Arkle but he was getting 8 pounds from Springwell Bay here, suggesting they are similar types. Caldwell Potter had a huge reputation before this and disappointed many but he is 5 pounds better off with Springwell Bay now.

On soft ground, I would be favouring Caldwell Potter but with that looking unlikely I think Springwell Bay will have the class to defy top weight here. He had several options to choose from and ended up here. He won again on this course since and was really impressive in doing so. I think he is better than a handicapper (as long as the ground isn’t too testing) over this trip

Recommendation

1pt ew Springwell Bay taking 15/2 or better

*****

2.40 Pertemps Final Hcap Hurdle

Runners have to go through qualifying races to get here by finishing in the first 4. Much of that qualifying will have to been done on softer ground than this and this may cause some form turnarounds. It also means it’s harder to protect a mark as some exposure has to be seen beforehand.

I’ve already highlighted in previous post that Nicky Henderson has a mean profit/loss record in these sort of races.

He fields three here – Jeriko du Reponet, Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob

Jeriko Du Reponet has an obvious chance – he was fancied to be one of the top novices last year and before the wheels fell off in the Supreme Novices you would have imagined he was going to end up well above a 140 rated horse. A setback kept him off until February when he finished 2nd. He was in a decent position but was knocked back by a mistake and being blocked by a rival up front which put him on the back foot. From then on I got the impression that qualifying rather than winning was at the forefront of Nico de Boinville’s mind. He duly did that and confirmed in my mind that he is better than his current mark of 135.

The downside is his price of around 5/1. That’s very short for such a competitive race.

Doddiethegreat appeared not to get up the hill here in a shorter race last year. Admittedly, the stable were in dire form then and he may have an excuse but I’m still not convinced of him on this track.

Shanagh Bob, on the other hand, has won here before and looks more of a stayer. He’s the one that I like most of the trio from an each way perspective with 6 places being offered. He is 4 pounds better off with Super Survivor who beat him at Huntingdon but this track and ground are likely to suit him better.

Back in 4th in the same race, Zain Nights, is also one to be strongly considered. He will most definitely prefer the better ground here and has good previous course form

Whilst, I can’t ignore the chance of Jeriko Du Reponet I can make him a recommendation at such a low price. I can see him making a mockery of his mark but I much prefer to back bigger prices each way that provide better value

Recommendations therefore are

0.5 pts ew Shanagh Bob (22/1 best price available as I write with 6 places)

0.5 pts ew Zain Nights (28/1 available in a couple of places)

*****

3.20 Ryanair Chase

I’ve already covered this to some degree in my ‘early ante post selections’ blog and see no reason to move away from last year’s winner, Protektorat.

If Il Est Francais had proven form here I would be in fear of him – but he’s only used to racing on flat tracks and has been kept away from here thus far in his career. If he takes to the fences he will be the hare to catch and he’ll make this a test for all. I’d be a bit worried to watch his bold technique on the downhill fences here especially though.

Fact to File has been rerouted here from the Gold Cup and whilst he must have a chance he is too short a price for me.

Djelo beat Protektorat at right handed Huntingdon but my selection patently is better going left handed and reversed the form in no uncertain fashion next time back on left hand track (like here)

Jungle Boogie is a talented horse who deserves a mention but the fact he is so lightly raced for an 11 year old shows how fragile he is.

If you followed my ante post recommendation you are already having money running up from Tuesday on Protektorat after Haiti Couleurs win so would be unnecessary to give him as a recommendation again here. He remains the selection though at around 6/1. A bit of dig in the ground would be ideal but he has form on Good also.

*****

4.00 Stayers Hurdle

I put up Teahupoo to win this at a short enough price last year. He’s had the same light preparation he needs this year but I just don’t get the same positive vibes from the stable as there was 12 months ago.

Langer Dan seems to spring to life at this meeting every year and we can usually forget all the weak looking form he has had in his previous runs. It would be no shock to see him winning.

Home By The Lee, despite being 10, looks an improved horse this year but he has been here before and generally given the impression this course isn’t quite where he thrives. He is still respected.

Lucky Place is the up and comer but is unproven at 3 miles. If he improves again for the trip he enters the equation (close form twice in his career with Champion Hurdle winning Golden Ace). It’s too much of a guess for me though that the trip will suit.

If it did come up very soft, Nemean Lion would be a lively outsider. That’s unlikely to happen though and if ground dries out I think he will be a non-runner.

Selection: This isn’t a betting race for me but if I had to pick one it would be Langer Dan from a somewhat cynical view on his regular massive improvement at this meeting

****

4.40 Plate Hcap Chase

Another very competitive handicap where I’m sure offering 6 places for each way would have been the norm a year ago – but sadly only 5 places here. I’d rather have the old traditional ¼ odds 1234 I think than these supposedly ‘enhanced’ terms

At the top of the handicap, Conflated and Ginnys Destiny have back form that would make them still well in – but neither have been in the same form this year.

Venetia Williams used to be a trainer to really watch in this race and so both Gemirande and Demnat are worthy of respect, but I feel both may come up short

Three for my shortlist here:

Masaccio is 6 pounds better off for nearly 4 lengths with current favourite Jagwar from their last encounter– but I think he has good chances to reverse the form and is much the better value of the pair. Masaccio had to carry a 12 stone burden on softer ground that day and these conditions will suit better. The addition of first time cheekpieces is also noteworthy.

Fugitif has loads of past course form and still remains on a competitive mark of 149. His last run was over a trip that is to far for him and is easily discounted. He has won races of a similar level off higher marks here and is 8 pounds better off with Gemirande from their running here in December. He is also well in on previous course form with Il Ridoto. Ideally, he’d like a bit of cut in the ground but even on good ground he has shown he can be competitive.

Finally, Personal Ambition, also carries first time cheekpieces and was very unlucky not to win at Ascot earlier in the season but for a last fence mistake that nearly took Ben Jones out of the saddle. Soft ground last time was against him and his record on better ground suggests his mark of 137 is very workable.

Whilst he has no previous course form, a Kelso win over Jango Baie (what has that done since!) shows a track with an uphill finish will hold no fears.

I put up Shakeumupharry for the same stable when he won this race last year with Ben Jones on board. That one hasn’t been in the same form this year though and it’s noteworthy that stable jockey Ben is on Personal Ambition this time round.

I’ll be covering myself with all three here

Recommendations

1pt ew Masaccio 10/1 best price currently available

0.5 pts ew Fugitif 16/1

0.5ts ew Personal Ambition 20/1

****

5.20 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

The first race this year that is for amateur riders only. There is always a wide gulf between the quality of riders in this and more inexperienced ones can often go too fast too early and pay fo rit late on

A JP McManus horse was heavily backed in this last year and dotted up after being thrown in with a weight that was ultimately far too lenient (he‘s now favourite for the Grand National and has a live each way chance in the Gold Cup)

We have another who looks to be plotted up from the same owner now In Johnnywho. Four runs over chases were required for him to qualify and get a mark. He did this whilst looking that he was being held back on more than one occasion.

 The handicapper wasn’t totally fooled but still dropped him down from 144 to 140. The likelihood remains that he is better and he has the services of probably the best amateur jockey in the race.

I have to give a mention to locally trained Manofthepeople at a very big price who may get the decent ground he needs. On his winning form here in April I would give him a chance. However, he ran so badly at his last course visit that I can’t really forget that enough to recommend him. He’d perhaps be a very speculative small ew punt

Selection is Johnnywho but his price is too low for me to make a recommendation on him

Thanks for reading once again

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

11 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 2

The Festival got under way today with the ground looking to be good to soft in opening races – and with a drying afternoon it won’t get any worse. The chase course was riding a bit slower than the hurdles course according to Nico de Boinville after his ‘off the sofa’ ride in the Arkle.

A note on the weather for Wednesday morning. There seems to be a possibility of frost overnight and wintry showers on Wednesday morning. This should stop any possibility of the ground drying further and may make it more testing yet. A ground update from Cheltenham tomorrow morning is recommended https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/.

I’ll go through my thoughts below on assumption of it remaining Good to Soft.

****

Onto Day 2 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-12

1.20 Turners Novices Hurdle

6 of the 11 runners here are from the Mullins stable but Final Demand looks to be the clear number one. He was very impressive last time, albeit over a longer trip and comes here with a rating 5 pounds more than anything else. I do feel he is the one to beat but the shorter trip and the undulating course (can be more of an issue for bigger horses like him) are at the back of my mind. With stamina seemingly a forte and 4 stablemates to help out, I’m expecting a well-run race to avoid an ill-suiting sprint finish

The New Lion is unbeaten and was very impressive in winning the Challow Hurdle over Christmas (a race that a notoriously bad record for its winners coming here it has to be said). The form of that race doesn’t look quite so good to me now as it did then though – even though he did win easily. He is the big UK hope here representing the Dan Skelton stable

Back in 3rd in the Challow was Bill Joyce by 5.5 lengths. That horse then went to Cheltenham and was beaten 12 lengths by Sixmilebridge with Potters Charm separating them in 3rd.

Admittedly Sixmilebridge was receiving weight from both 2nd and 3rd that day but it still makes him a viable opponent here with proven course form.

Potters Charm was odds-on favourite that day and didn’t run up to expectations. Connections did seem to have an argument about running him and it might have been better if he didn’t. His previous form on this track was excellent and if he is 100% again (stable suggests he is), he is another real contender.

The Yellow Clay was fancied but only sixth in last year’s Champion Bumper. He has been solid in his hurdles this season. Similarly to Potters Charm, he doesn’t win his races flashily but grinds them out more. That’s a good quality for me when it comes to an uphill finish like this.

I’m struggling to see a case for anything outside of these 5 but Mullins 2nd or 3rd strings have run well before so if fancying any of those at a big price there is still some hope.

Again Skybet offer an extra fourth place here for each-ways but again their model has shortened the win odds compared to other firms to account for this

Selection: I think Final Demand is the likeliest winner – more so if the ground doesn’t dry up any more overnight. His price is a bit too short for me though at under 2/1. I see more value in the prices of Potters Charm and Sixmilebridge as each way selections. Betting both with 4 places at Skybet makes a bit more appeal here but you’d want to back them at SP and hope for better than their current prices here. That might well happen if the two favourites are well backed

No recommendations given the advice is very limited to one bookmaker and it’s not one I can get a bet on with myself for more than pennies!

****

2.00 Brown Advisory Novices Chase

It’s sad to see the premier longer distance race for novice chasers has no UK trained runners this year. Also 4 of the 7 runners are from the Mullins stable.

Ballyburn is the obvious favourite. He isn’t proven over this trip but wasn’t stopping last time out. His jumping isn’t flawless but it’s no worse than stablemate Dancing City’s (may require softer ground to make it more a stamina test).

Last year’s Albert Bartlett winner, Stellar Story, takes the prize for most awkward looking jumper in the field though. He looked like he was given a ride just to get round and improve his confidence last time or else he may have beaten his stablemate, Better Days Ahead.

If the ground did dry further then Gorgeous Tom could become more of a contender. He’s also unproven on the trip but looks like he may relish it.

Selection. I can’t really avoid Ballyburn here. His hurdling form is a good notch above these. Would I back him around Evens though in what may be his stiffest jumping test yet – unlikely!

*****

2.40 Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle

I’ve been sweet on Beat the Bat for some time in this race. I wasn’t sure he would get in with his lower weight so was delighted to see him scrape in at number 24.

Harry Fry’s charge run in top two mile handicaps the last two occasions and been well supported in both. It’s been evident in both though that the trip was too short and I’m sure this longer trip is something he is crying out for. His last race at Newbury has often been a good guide for this race.

Ground is not an issue whichever way it goes overnight here

Given, Dan Skelton’s past prowess in doing long range plots for handicap hurdles here respect has to be given to Be Aware. The horse’s name is well found though as bookmakers are fully aware of his credentials in making him around 5/1.

Softer ground does seem a positive for him so any overnight changes are worth noting – he is just too short a price for me now.

Willie Mullins’ Bunting is currently sharing favouritism but the stable’s record in handicap hurdles is pretty dire if you look at my previous post on this subject. I note from www.gaultstats.com that he is 1 from 50 in this race since 2010

The Mullins stable also field Jimmy Du Seuil who has s standout piece of form from this meeting last year that he hasn’t matched since. If he did find himself in the groove back here he would be a contender.

Ballyadam was 2nd in this race last year from a mark of 147 (has today). He also ran well in the County Hurdle the previous year off. Good ground is probably what he wants and it’s easy to see him running well again but at the age of 10 now can he really improve to win off a higher mark than he has had to shoulder before.

Not every firm offering enhanced 6 places here as yet – which has been replicated moreso in other handicaps. It’s been noticeable that 5 places is often more prevalent this year and as such there is a bit less value in handicaps to be seen generally so far. In contrast, Skybet offer 8 places if you can get a bet on with them

Recommendation. Back Beat the Bat 1 pt each way at 14/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or better

****

3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase

Any regular devotees of my blog will know this is the time I put the kettle on and sit down to watch without getting involved in betting. A history of having jockeys taking the wrong course on this special course doesn’t help. This is the first year it has been a handicap which should make it more competitive. I still can’t help think it’s like going to Wimbledon but watching an Exhibition match played between old professionals and employing a few trick shots

With all that in mind I’ll pass on a selection and just wish anyone luck who has a bet on it!

****

4.00  Queen Mother Champion Chase

As long as we stick with a flat field of 8 runners here then each way options will give us 3 places. If one were to come out then it would go down to 2 places and make each way betting a bit less attractive.

Jonbon is unbeaten in this division this year and this looks like the opportunity for him to land his Festival win. He has been second twice here in the past and had to be withdrawn late last year when his stable had some huge issues with the form of their horses.

If it did get very soft ground it might make things harder but that looks unlikely.

One of Nico de Boinville’s main tasks will be to focus on not giving too much rope to the field’s obvious front runner, Solness.

Solness has been a revelation at Leopardstown this year when he has taken his form to a new level. He hasn’t been taken on for the lead much and connections would have been delighted when another pace option, Matata, was taken out of the race at the 5 day stage.

If he is let to roll along up front and get a decent lead, he could be dangerous (a previous run on this track wasn’t great) but I don’t think Jonbon will let him get away.

If the ground does soften up then I can envisage a better run from the 2022 champion Energumene. He is 11 years old now and firmly in the veteran stage. He was put in his place last time out by Jonbon but showed he still retains plenty of ability.

With Solness here to force the pace, and Jonbon likely to be ghosting him, I can envisage more of a hold up ride on Energumene here. This tactic worked well for him in 2022. I do think he needs some cut in the ground to have a real shot at Jonbon though

Selection; Jonbon has to be my pick on all form this year. At around 7/1 I I think Energumene would provide some each way value though – but only if the ground remains good to soft or deeper – and that there remain 8 runners. Therefore I’ll only be looking to bet him as we get closer to the race

*****

4.40 Grand Annual Challenge Cup

Another competitive handicap with last year’s winner, Unexpected Party, returning to try and retain his title of a 6 pound higher mark. The respect that bookmakers have for his trainer has again been reflected in his odds though I’d suspect Skelton may have hoped to get him lower than this mark if he could have done.

Jazzy Matty is also a previous Festival winner having triumphed in the Juveniles handicap hurdle in 2023.He is a novice here but looks to have been plotted up with a hurdle race preparation. Before then he’d gone close in a 4 runner novice chase – the form of which may be questionable as the race was very slowly run.

JPR One is the class horse of the race but has to carry 12 stone because of it and of the higher weights I prefer My Mate Mozzie, who finished one place in front of him in last year’s Arkle and is 5 pounds better off.

The likely strong pace here is likely to suit My Mate Mozzie’s hold up style. He’s a versatile horse who was placed at Royal Ascot on the flat last year but is equally effective over chases and hurdles at a high level.

He wouldn’t want to see lots of rain and I can also say the same for General Medrano who should also be suited by strong pace. He got to the front too soon at Doncaster last time but was massively impressive at Newbury earlier in the season. He’s never raced at Cheltenham before so there has to be a little question mark in my head as to if he will cope with the undulations. The price is big enough to mitigate those doubts though

Two selections here;

Recommendations

1pt ew My Mate Mozzie taking 7/1 or better with 5 places

0.5 pts ew General Medrano taking 20/1 or better

****

5.20 Champion Bumper

Another impossible race where to have any idea you would want some inside stable info – ideally from the Mullins stable with its 5 runners (a small entry from them this year!).

Copacabana’s place at the head of the market was cemented when JP McManus recently said it as his only bet coming into the meeting. An odd thing to say when he doesn’t own and recently paid plenty for Aqua Force in the same race.

Lots of horses here with impressive recent wins but we can’t be sure what they beat and how strong the form is.

Another race to sit out with no selection – but to watch carefully with a view to the future as it is a breeding ground for future good hurdlers and chasers

****

Overall, this looks a quieter betting day for me today but hopefully some food for thought is in there …for 5 of the races at least!

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back

Paul

 
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Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

10 Mar

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1

Welcome back to annual followers of my blog covering the 4 days of National Hunt racing’s Olympics!

I’ll try to work through all races again on a day-by-day basis highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself. Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.

My main social media activity now on horse racing is the Blue Sky app (bsky.app) where I’ll post any extra snippets I see during the week (@senormoodoir.bsky.social ). I have already added a few early ante post interests in there this year – some of which the prices have now dropped a good bit on – so the value on those may have disappeared by now.

I used to cover the statistical pointers that can often pick out winners but this is done so much better in recent years by www.gaultstats.com. It is Bryan Gault’s last year doing this invaluable resource and please remember to contribute to the cause he is doing it for if finding it useful.

There is a slightly different look to this year’s Festival with the placement of races and the removal of a couple of races to be replaced by new handicaps.

Centrepiece races have now been moved back to 4pm each day and are now the 5th race on the card. Great news for younger fans who may have been trapped in school and unable to watch – about 50 years too late for me though in that regard!

Ground conditions are always going to play a significant factor. Last year we had softer conditions but there has been less rain this year and some watering has been already done to try and ensure we get Good to Soft or even Good ground which so often the Festival begins with.

Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/

A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-11-cheltenham

*take note that Oddschecker has now started to charge for this service after they deem you to have used it too much – change to another browser if you can when that happens and you should be able to access again

***

Day 1 action:

A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-11. *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses

1.20 Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices Hurdle.

The traditional opener to the meeting is this year run in honour of 2023’s winning jockey, Michael O’Sullivan, who tragically died from a riding accident last month.

It would certainly be quite fitting if the same colours were to triumph again here with William Munny, a horse with a live each-way chance.

William Munny was one of the best bumper horses in Ireland last season but it wasn’t until his 3rd run over hurdles before he started to finally began to realise his hurdling potential with a very easy win at Punchestown. Prior to that he hadn’t settled in his races and was beaten 7 lengths by Workahead at Leopardstown. The two reoppose here but I wouldn’t take that form literally as the second looked a different article last time.

Romeo Coolio was similar level in bumpers to William Munny last year and has transitioned to hurdles very well this year.

These three are all contenders for the places for me though if Kopek Des Bordes can show the same form that blew away a decent field with ease at Leopardstown in February. One of six runners from the all-powerful Willie Mullins stable here, he is clearly their number one.

His hurdling debut showed some jumping flaws bu they did seem to have been ironed out next time. However he did show a possible weakness when getting very lit up in the preliminaries and looking like he might get out of control with jockey Paul Townend early on. I’m sure the stable would have worked on that since and a hood is applied for the first time here to help deal with the task he is going to face (Willam Munny also wearing the same first time headgear).

There is a real pressure cooker atmosphere for the first race as the crowd get revved up for the first race and there is a traditional roar. False starts are not uncommon in this race so it does present a test for the favourite.

In short I think, the biggest rival for Kopek Des Bordes could be himself. If the start goes fine and he settles he is going to take a lot of beating. If things don’t go so well then others have a chance.

At around Even money to win I can’t therefore support him.

In the past many firms have dangled a carrot in this opening race with extra places to give some value. Only Skybet have gone that far this year but in so doing are offering slightly lower prices than others so I’m still not getting too excited there (marginal preference for Romeo Coolio as the one who looks guaranteed to finish in the top 4 to me but not much between him, Workahead and William Munny)

I must also mention Tripoli Flyer who showed what an engine he has when winning the last twice easily despite some indifferent hurdling. His best form is all on decent ground (should get that) and on flat tracks (won’t get that). I thought Aintree in April would be far more suitable for him so a little surprised to see him running here. If he can cope with the track he is definitely dangerous. However, the fact his stable haven’t yet run him here , despite being almost next door to the track, suggests to me that it may not be ideal for him.

Selection: KOPEK DES BORDES (but not a betting proposition for me)

****

2.00 Arkle Challenge Trophy

I’ve already covered this in my earlier post regarding some early selections. Not much has changed except there are now only 5 runners and so there is no more each way with 3 places.

I think Majborough will win if he jumps round cleanly – but he is flamboyant at times and I can easily see him making a bad mistake at some point on this tricky course. If he does that would let the clean jumping course winner L’Eau Du Sud in as the most likely to profit.

Both horses have already beat Touch Me Not this season and should do so again. That one’s inclusion in the race is good though as he is a decent jumper who can put pressure on the favourite up front.

Jango Baie looks like he needs further and might be caught for pace at a crucial stage but should be running on late. Only By Night also looks likely to be held up and delivered late but I just don’t think her form is good enough to win.

Selection: I’ve already put up L’EAU DU SUD when each way 1/5 odds 123 was available. Place odds are less attractive now this has become less of a betting proposition. I still think he represents a little more value than the odds on favourite Majborough though

****

2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase

Always a competitive handicap and one that has served me well over the years.

I’m find it very tricky this year though!

The Changing Man has done well to stay on a mark of 140 after a bloodless win last time (aided by all his rivals making errors). He has been a slow developer with his jumping technique but finally seems to have got his act together now. Whilst he has been consistent in decent handicaps this season he has been beaten in them off lower marks than here. The handicap record of his trainer Joe Tizzard (see my earlier post on trainer stats) is also disconcerting. He has a chance but I can see him placing again rather than winning – and also I think a smaller field may have suited him better.

Broadway Boy has a fine record on this course and runs here in preparation for the Grand National. That slightly puts me off here as you would imagine that connections have left some room for improvement with a bigger aim to come. He may prefer softer and for a front runner to win this off such a high weight would be quite some task.

I’ve always been drawn to lower weights carrying less than 11 stone in this race.

Katate Dori would immediately therefore be on the shortlist after an impressive win last time that sees his mark increase by 12 pounds here. He may well still be ahead of the handicapper.

Lucinda Russell has won race before and has both Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown in the right weight zone. The former has stable jockey Derek Fox on board and appears to be the number one (if there is a jockey switch take note). He had a nice sighter of these fences over an inadequate trip last time. Additionally, Whistle Stop Tour would appear to appreciate the drying conditions while Myretown may prefer softer.

Marginal preference though is for Irish challenger, The Short Go who had Broadway Boy behind him here earlier in the season (latter beaten 11 lengths and  is only 5 pounds better of). He obviously doesn’t cope with deep winter ground and the forecast conditions here must be in his favour. With Rachel Blackmore on board, he might well be a popular pick on the day. Expect to see a hold up ride with him being smuggled into the race late on.

I also can’t leave an old friend, Straw Fan Jack, completely alone at huge odds. His form has been indifferent this year but there were signs of a revival last time and he’s now on a 6 pound lower mark than when 3rd at the Festival last year (Reopposing Crebilly just ahead but worse off here yet a much shorter price). His jumping can be erratic but his form at Cheltenham overall isn’t bad. The trip is a slight question mark but he is a huge price to make up for that

Selections: Not a race for risking too much on but I’m interested in The Short Go at around 14/1 each way with firms offering 6 places. Also a speculative little each way on Straw Fan Jack at 50/1 or bigger

Recommendations

1pt ew The Short Go

0.5 pts ew Straw Fan Jack

3.20 Mares Hurdle

The complexion of this race changed enormously at the final declaration stage when last year’s winner, Lossiemouth, was declared rather than the Champion Hurdle.

Her form should be on a different level to the rest but she did suffer a nasty fall last time. She should win, but there is always going to be a slight seed of doubt about whether she is fully 100% given she sidestepped the bigger prize.

With her being odds-on favourite it’s also killed any hope of being offered an extra place on the race.

It’s possible to give place chance to nearly all the rest but I’m most drawn to Queens Gamble given she has such good past course form and will like the better ground.

A plot to take a big handicap at Leopardstown in February was scuppered by softer conditions and a bruised knee during the race (also not Blackmore’s finest of rides).

I think she’ll benefit form a longer trip here and can see her running well.

She probably won’t beat the favourite if on song but many firms offer ‘betting without the favourite’ and that option becomes more interesting in this circumstance.

Selection: QUEENS GAMBLE each way in the ‘Betting without Lossiemouth’ market at hopefully 16/1 or better

Recommendation: 1pt ew Queens Gamble – in betting without Lossiemouth market

*****

4.00 Champion Hurdle

I’ll cut to the chase here for Tuesday’s premier race.

Constitution Hill is probably the best hurdler I have seen since Golden Cygnet in the mid 1970s when I first started watching this sport.

Unless something is ailing him, and I can’t imagine he would be here if his trainer didn’t think he was 100% , then I struggle to see him getting beaten. If anything, my biggest worry would be the final hurdle. He didn’t met it right in his last run and when last wining this race he jumped way too early after seeing a shadow on it

Brighterdaysahead is a fine mare and its great to see here in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. Her pacemaker, King of Kingsfield, should make this race a true test. They employed similar tactics to hand out a thrashing to the 2024 Champion Hurdler, State Man, over the Christmas period.

That tactic should be enough to derail any hopes for State Man again, but if anything it will be help for Constitution Hill. The favourite’s most impressive career win in the Supreme Novices Hurdle came on the back of a breakneck pace also.

Burdett Road likes to force the pace also so might also find himself on the backfoot on the uphill home straight.

I put up Golden Ace as a value each way proposition on Blue Sky at 100/1 at the beginning of the year. I thought I had done my money on that as she looked likely to be in the Mares Hurdle but a late change of mind was very welcome.

I can see here being ridden for a place here (will add plenty of value to her as a broodmare) and am hopeful she can take advantage of others being broken by the favourite.

There is no more 100/1 though and no more 3 place options for each way so the value on her has largely gone

Selection; CONSTITUTION HILL – but at no more than 8/13 there aren’t too many rich pickings to be gained here

***

4.40 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle

Another race where I was active on Blue Sky a few weeks ago to suggest Hot Fuss at 33/1 after an unconventional prep run at Southwell.

I think he ran in one of the best juvenile races in the UK this season when putting it up to current Triumph Hurdle favourite, East India Dock, at Wincanton. He was a little disappointing in deep ground at Chepstow over Christmas but that has meant he has a nice low mark of 122 here. His Southwell win wouldn’t have affected his mark but it showed an improved performance sporting a first time visor.

Connections now use first time blinkers and I think he’s very much one to keep on the right side of whilst he has an attractive mark.

Chief danger is another of East India Dock’s victims this year, French raider Stencil. Stencil was the only one to keep with his conqueror’s strong pace last time and only gave way in the closing stages after travelling noticeably well. He is the likely favourite here but I don’t think his mark of 135 is unduly harsh – and the pace of this race will suit.

James Reveley has been saying is preview evenings recently that his mount is better than a handicapper and I tend to agree.

Far less attractive is well supported Irish raider, Total Look, who I think may almost get the prize of worst handicapped horse in the race. His UK mark of 132 is 9 pounds higher than his current Irish mark of 123. Additionally, he was beaten by both Quantock Hills and Teriferma at this track in December when receiving weight from both. Now he has to give them both 6 pounds. Cheekpieces may be on for the first time and his trainer is a shrewd operator – but if this wins there should be a stewards enquiry for some explanations!

I’m largely in the mind that Irish juvenile hurdlers this season are coming into this a little bit too harshly handicapped. It must be noted though that Joseph O’Brien won this last year with another horse who didn’t look that well in but had been prepared especially for the race. Take note then for any strong money on the day for Puturhandstogether or Beyond Your Dreams (not least because they are both owned by prolific punter JP McManus)

Selections:

STENCIL Each way taking 11/2 or better – some firms offering 6 places but not all

HOT FUSS 12/1 each way – the really nice prices have already gone unfortunately

Recommendations

2pts ew Stencil

1pt ew Hot Fuss

*****

5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap

A big change to this long distance novices race this year. For the first time it is now a handicap and is no longer the domain of amateur riders. A ceiling for horse with marks no more than 145 also restricts the upper echelon of novice chasers from taking part. A bit of early planning from some stables would have been needed.

As there is no previous running there are no previous stats to work from either.

Another race I’ve already covered to some degree when offering up Haiti Couleurs in my Early Ante Post selections post.

I’m still strongly in his favour. Connections think highly enough of him to think they could have run him in the Turners Novice Chase tomorrow – a non-handicap novices championship race – but his handicap mark of 135 meant this race was always going to be more ttractive.

He has purposefully been given a small break since his immaculate round of jumping to secure a course win here in December. A hurdles run last month which would not affect his chase mark was more than satisfactory and his trainer has a great strike rate at the Festival from not too many past runners

That Cheltenham piece of form is the key to this race I think and also throws up his biggest danger, Transmission. Neil Mulholland’s charge is reunited with Patrick Mullins here and is 4 pounds better off for just over 2 lengths. He has also had a recent run over hurdles to protect his chase mark and promises to be suited by a longer trip.

The prevailing ground shouldn’t be a barrier to either horse and I think they are the two best handicapped horses in this race on this years form.

Gericault Roque is also well handicapped on past Festival form but he has only run once this year after a long lay-off since 2022. There is always a chance of a dip back in form after such a break but he still can’t be totally discounted.

Again we have a short priced Gavin Cromwell runner here, Now Is the Hour, where I simply don’t get the shortened odds. He has undoubtedly not been showing all his card this year to try and get a slimmer mark but 139 has a bit bigger waistline that they would have hoped for. His stand out piece of form comes from very deep ground at Haydock. That’s a specialist track when the ground is deep and it’s like chalk and cheese compared to this course with drier conditions

Selections: HAITI COULEURS 4/1 and TRANSMISSION 11/2 (currently best prices with all firms seeming offering 5 places rather than 6)

Recommendations:

2pts ew Haiti Couleurs

1.5 pts ew Transmission

****

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,

Paul

(I will be posting my thoughts for Wednesday’s card late tomorrow afternoon after scrutinising early results)

Already recommended on previous blog post L’Eau Du Sud 2.40 and Haiti Couleurs 5.20

Already recommended on previous BSky posts – Golden Ace e/w 100/1 4.00; Hot Fuss 33/1 4.40

(Note I have also also recommended Beat the Bat in Wednesday’s Coral Cup at 25/1 on BSky who was also confirmed for the race today and I’ll cover again tomorrow)

 
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Posted by on March 10, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham 2025 – Trainer records in handicaps

20 Feb

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Top trainers in handicaps update

With the publication of entries for this year’s handicaps earlier this week, I thought it an appropriate time to dust off the blog in readiness for the forthcoming Festival (March 11-14). With all that is going on elsewhere in the world, it’s a blessed distraction right now!

I did a post last year highlighting the record of top trainers in the handicaps and have updated the stats for that here with a few comments added.

Weights for these handicaps will be released on Feb 25th and if for those not already qualified they have to do that by Feb 23rd.

****

What’s changed this year?

Firstly we have 3 more handicaps than we did last year – and they are all chases:

NH Chase.

This used to be a non-handicap but as field sizes have dwindled in recent years it becomes a handicap and is no longer for amateur riders. Three runs over fences are required to qualify and also there is a limit of a mark of 145. Several Irish runners currently quoted are likely to fall foul of being over 145 I suspect next week. I would be highly wary of backing Shannon Royale (got handed a 148 mark in Jan on a speculative Warwick entry), Sa Majeste and Search For Glory with this in mind.

Jack Richards Novice Hcap

The two and half miles novices’ championship event is no more and is now a handicap with 3 runs over fences again required. This race did exist in another name until 2020 but it then had an upper limit on handicap marks – that doesn’t exist now)

Cross Country Chase

For the first time in its history this is now a handicap. Whilst I’m no fan of this event the change can only make this event a bit more competitive. In common with all aged handicap chases at the meeting, a minimum of 4 runs over fences is required to qualify.

The number of hurdles races remain the same but qualification criteria has changed with 5 runs over hurdles now required in all aged handicaps (3 runs for the 4yo only Boodles hcap)

*****

Who did well last year?

The table below shows how the top trainers I covered in last year’s post did throughout the meeting.

As I did last year, its based on SP returns. Each way is using 1/5 odds 123456 which seems to be fairly standard these days. The ‘standard’ handicap place terms of ¼ odds 1234 aren’t easy to find these days even if you wanted them – I’d often still take that over 1/5 odds 12345 to be honest. While these ‘enhanced’ place terms may look attractive the difference between one quarter and one fifth odds can be quite high and I’d be wanting at least 6 places often to be tempted when it is one fifth.

Analysis of each trainer will follow later.

How does this change these trainers stats over 2019-2024 basis?

An update of the same trainers’ record over the recent 6 year period is here. I’ve separated into hurdles and chasers as there are some notable differences between individual trainer records in each sphere

*****

UPDATED TRAINER ANALYSIS

GORDON ELLIOTT

Elliott’s figures took a nosedive in handicaps last year. He still shows on overall profit on all his runners for each way bets over the 6 years – thanks to some big priced wins and places. He is still supplying more handicap runners than other trainers but it’s much harder to advertise his credentials as a trainer to follow in such races now. Perhaps, the handicapper has more of a grip on them. Perhaps, he is targetting the non handicaps more?

WILLIE MULLINS

As highlighted last year, the Mullins stable are not so impressive from a profit/loss perspective when it comes to handicaps (particularly in handicap chases). A 12/1 win for Absurde in last year’s County Hurdle helped redress his figures in hurdle handicaps.

He can throw unexposed horses in to such races with attractive marks but they are rarely missed by the layers and prices seldom attractive. The new rules on needing 5 hurdle runs to qualify will also make it harder to run such horses.

Mullins remains a trainer to have the utmost respect for in non handicaps but – aside from the County Hurdle ( he does have a decent record in that) and maybe the Martin Pipe hurdle – he obviously doesnt target the handicaps to the same degree.

NICKY HENDERSON

Nicky had a torrid time at last years festival with his stable under a huge cloud and many big names having to be kept at home. Consequently he had much fewer runners, and several of those that did run ran like they had an issue. It’s therefore quite noteworthy that he maintained and even increased his profit for each way supporters in the hurdles handicaps. Lucky Place and Bold Endeavour both finishing 4th at 25/1 and 50/1respectively achieved that. The former drifted to about double his early price – no doubt due o the stable problems.

Henderson remains one to keep on your side in handicap hurdles – and not necessarily with his perceived number 1 runner as historical results will testify.

DAN SKELTON

Dan had a great Festival in 2024, enhancing his P/L in both chase and hurdle handicaps. The layers have long been aware of him as a trainer who can target handicaps so you may not get the prices you would like but he is still capable proven capable of getting a horse into the right race with a workable mark. His hurdles stats are particularly impressive – something we can also relate to his time with the Nicholls stable several years back when he orchestrated some similar long term planning to great success. A trainer to always keep on your side.

PAUL NICHOLLS

This once powerhouse UK stable is a bit of a force in decline lately. His P/L in handicaps had been dire until last year when Monmiral’s win at 25/1 gave some resurgence. Afadil’s 5th place in the County Hurdle also boosted funds (no doubt help by him being gifted many lengths at the start by the rest of the field). It’s hard to imagine, a horse of his would have started 25/1for any handicap in past years (Monmiral had some decent back form) but it does show that the layers aren’t in fear of him and you may get some value on his runners. The fact he had only 5 handicap runners last year shows he has less to play with. I still find it hard to recommend Nicholls in handicaps but at least if you fancy one you might get a price now. The loss of key assistants like Skelton, Derham and Fry over the years has no doubt had an effect

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

Henry used to be quite selective when sending horses to this meeting and was one to be feared. There seem to be more running now – no doubt because of the big name owners he now has – but his P/L is going in the wrong direction. Ballyadam came close to winning the Coral Cup last year but he remains having no hurdle winners in the past 6 years from 24 contenders. Chasers have a better record and where the stable does retain a bit more of an edge. Another stable that may be concentrating more on non handicaps now? As mentioned last year, the presence of Rachel Blackmore on his horses can also serve to push the price down also

VENETIA WILLIAMS

Hurdles stats not included here as Venetia has always had more success in the chasing sphere. She didnt have any winners last year but Gemirande (5th 40/1) and Frero Banbou (6th 28/1 in the Plate – a race she has traditionally done well in) kept her in a good overall profit for each way support in chase handicaps. She is traditionally associated with soft ground performers and can shine in the winter months of deep ground. You’d be wise to write her off in handicap chases still – but even more so if the mud is flying.

JOE TIZZARD

Nothing in his figures to enhance his claims as a trainer to follow in handicaps here. My personal feeling is that his horses are often pitched too high too early and their marks are too exposed by the time they get here

Others of note:

BEN PAULING had an 8/1 winner (Shakeumupharry) and 28/1 second (Twig) in handicap chases last year. He’d be showing a good profit in chase handicaps over the years (largely due to Global Citizen’s 28/1 win in 2022). He wouldn’t have too many runners compared to those already listed but he does seem to be able to target his horses in the chasers for the day.

JOSEPH O’BRIEN may be more flat based but he is still noteworthy when targeting horses for hurdles handicaps. Last years Boodles winner Larkinthemornin didn’t seem nhat attractively handicapped but easily surpassed previous form to give him a 9/1 winner (Harsh was placed at 40/1 in same race for him). Joseph had been to this party before with Band of Outlaws so its a race to watch his runners closely in

*****

Hopefully a bit of food for though in these stats for anyone scrutinising the handicaps in the next few weeks.

My regular blog will be back Cheltenham week

Paul

 
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Posted by on February 20, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham 2024 – Day 3

13 Mar

It’s St Patrick’s Thursday today and given what’s already happened so far this week there should be further cause to celebrate in the Emerald Isle today. 

The main vanguard trainer of UK hopes – Nicky Henderson – continues to be having a nightmare of a meeting. Jonbon yesterday and Shishkin (Friday’s Gold Cup) became non-runners due to excessively poor form of stable runners in recent days. There could be more withdrawals to come from that stable before the week is out (Lucky Place did run well today but others most definitely have a problem) 

*****

130 Turners Novices Chase 

Irish hopes for a perfect start today rest mainly with FACILE VEGA. The son of 5 times festival winner Quevega, there has always been mighty expectation of this horse. He won the Bumper here two years ago, then finished second in the meeting opener last year. His chasing career hasn’t gone quite to plan so far, and he is stepped up in trip here in an attempt to put less pressure on his jumping. He has something to prove in the chasing sphere still to me and I think his price is too short compared to his actual chance. 

GREY DAWNING is shortest priced of the home side with the market favouring him to turn round earlier season form with GINNYS DESTINY. I’m not so sure he will. He looks like an impressive horse on flatter tracks but do the undulations here ideally suit? He got beaten by making a shuddering mistake two fences out and I wouldn’t be surprised if his jumping was put under scrutiny again here. 

GINNYS DESTINY is unbeaten here this season and his professional jumping style is always going to be an asset. Whilst it may look on paper he may struggle to confirm form with Grey Dawning, he looked to improve significantly last time out. He didn’t get any easy lead that time but that didn’t bother him at all. To win a very competitive handicap as he did under 12 stones was a top-class effort in my eyes 

IROKO adds further spice and looked like a great prospect early in the season until he got sidelined with injury. It looked like he would be out until next year, but connections have got him back. It would be some feat of training though to get him back to the level required to win this. 

Verdict: GINNYS DESTINY is the most solid option here for me. Firms seem keen to lay him but I can’t figure out quite why. Possibly due to two stable runners performing badly this week? There were excuses for both of them though, so I don’t see any reason to press a panic button there yet. Anyway, his price has drifted from about 3/1 to 5/1 today and I’m not complaining about that 

Recommendation; 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY (take 5/1 if you can but 9/2 also acceptable) 

******

210 Pertemps Network Final Hcap Hurdle 

Horses have to qualify for this by finishing in the first 4 of any ‘heats’ held during the year. The qualification criteria used to be far easier for runners to sneak into the race by not trying too hard (or by not running at all if races were abandoned). It’s much harder to do that now – and that’s a good thing for this race in my view 

MILL GREEN has a very consistent record at the Festival. He has jumped the last hurdle in the lead in this race the last two years and finished 3rd on both occasions (beating all his rivals on the stands side of track both times). He may be 12 now but still looked to have lost nothing of his ability when qualifying last time at Exeter. He looked likely to win then but got hampered and the cause wasn’t persevered with. As a result, his mark wasn’t increased, and it looked like a perfect prep to me. The problem is he is trained by Nicky Henderson – a huge black spot there given what has happened this week. 

Stablemate Lucky Place ran very well yesterday but others most definitely haven’t. He would be a recommendation here, but the stable form is once again impossible to factor in now 

Others of note who may be a little better than their mark: 

CUTHBERT DIBBLE is progressive and in the fullness of time may be better than 139. However, I’d worry about just how hard a race he had last time in desperate ground at Haydock. 

LE MILOS. All his best form comes chasing but he would have a higher handicap mark there. His form this season is noting special but then so was his stablemate Langer Dan. Dan Skelton showed once again yesterday how he can prime one perfectly for a big handicap hurdle here. 

ICARE ALLEN. Hasn’t run since qualifying in November. Could easily be plotted up for this. Most of his form at 2 miles but that has looked patently too short a trip for him lately. Go back to his Triumph hurdle 4th in 2022 and you would say he is thrown in here..but there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then 

VERDICT. I’m hoping the old boy Mill Green hasn’t come down with whatever is plaguing his stable, he could easily be declared a non-runner yet. I have backed him ante post but couldn’t put him up as a bet now with all the doubts around 

NO BET 

*******

250 Ryanair Chase 

BANBRIDGE would be the one to beat here on his favoured good ground. He was taken out of the meeting last year when the ground was soft – not as soft as this – and I’m surprised he’s still running. Don’t be surprised to see him pulled out yet and a deduction made to all prices being offered. 

I see this as a wide-open race where I can give some sort of a chance to everything. 

Because of that it’s a NO BET race on this side…. if someone put a gun to my head to make a selection, I’d still probably end up giving out three of four! 

*****

330 Stayers Hurdle 

TEAHUPOO came third here last year when favourite. He’s been kept fresher this year and he is most definitely the one to beat in my mind. The price at under 2/1 is just a bit too low now after he has come in for recent support.

SIRE DU BERLAIS and DASHEL DRASHER beat him last year when they started racing very early and it turned into a war to get home up the hill. Both them and PAISLEY PARK are firmly in the veteran stage now but would be very popular winners 

If it did turn into a similar power battle though they should all fear NOBLE YEATS who uses this as prep race for the Grand National and will stay every yard of this trip and much more.

I do think a year older TEAHUPOO will be too strong for all of these though. 

CRAMBO is the UK’s new young hope. It would be great for local trainer, cake-loving Fergal O’Brien to get his first Festival success here. There can’t be many more popular trainers in the game. I would like to have seen some course form from him coming into this though 

VERDICT; TEAHUPOO would have to be my selection but he’s a bit too short to recommend a bet on. 

*****

410 Plate Hcap Chase 

CREBILLY is the JP McManus plot horse here. His form certainly makes you think his mark of 140 is lenient. I have a major worry here though that all his best form comes in small fields and a 21-runner handicap may be his undoing. 7/2 represents no value to me with this in mind

THEATRE MAN has already got some of ante post money at 10/1 and his chances will get a big boost if Ginnys Destiny (who beat him last time out) wins the opener. Harry Cobden is a great booking, but the value now seems to have been sucked out of his price a bit. 

There is still a bit of juice in the odds of SHAKEM UP’HARRY though. He seemed to take his form up a level here on New Years Day and has done well to be raised only 3 pounds from that. He was only a pound lower when third in this race last year and is arguably a better horse now. With Harry Redknapp owning this one expect some scenes if he wins! 

I have to give an honourable mention to a big outsider in STRAW FAN JACK. He has dropped to a very attractive mark after two lack-lustre runs recently. He’d probably prefer better ground but if Sheila Lewis has found an answer to his problems, I think he is very well in on his back form 

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12345 

*****

420 Mares Novices Hurdle 

This could be one of the highlights of the meetings with 4 very classy looking young mares facing off. 

DYSART ENOS and GOLDEN ACE head the home team. The former came out easily best in Aintree’s bumper last season. Golden Ace looks to have improved this season though with hurdles now brought in. 

They have both been campaigned away from the top level this season to avoid getting a penalty for this race. 

Consequently, these two will receive 5 pounds from the two Irish favourites. 

Willie Mullins’s record in mares’ races speaks for itself and in any other year, JADE DE GRUGY, would be the natural favourite here. She has a strong reputation but the vibes from Gordon Elliott’s yard have been so strong for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. The ‘best horse he’s ever had’ has been mooted here – and that is from a stable that has had some very big stars of the past 

Verdict. I find it hard to ignore the vibes for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. This is a bit like Fact to File yesterday, in that one side of me is saying that price is too short and should be laid, but the other side is telling me she could be very special. If any firm offered 4 places on this race I’d be tempted to take GOLDEN ACE. She’s looked very good herself but may be up against the impossible this time. There is huge difference between getting 3 or 4 places for your each-way bets on this race 

NO BET 

****

530 Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys Hcap 

INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN heads the market here and does have the look of another McManus plot. He’s looked like he’s been held back a bit at times in an effort to get a decent mark here – and he does have about the best amateur jockey available in Derek O’Connor. His mark of 145 might be a tad generous compared to his hurdling form but not by that much. His price is too low for me given he has to shoulder top weight here and the trip is a complete unknown. 

AMIRITE could be well in off 142 but seems to need much better ground. BOWTOGREATNESS could also win something decent off 133 but his best form seems to come on flat tracks. 

WHEREITALLBEGAN would probably love a longer trip but on this soft ground – and a likely too quick pace in an amateur race – that could bring his stamina into play. He’s on a much higher mark than his last win but that was a very clear-cut victory. He is part of a good Gordon Elliott challenge here. FAKIR D’ALENE was 4th in this race two years ago off a one-pound higher mark (four pounds if we count Rob James’s claim). His last two runs haven’t been inspiring, but the back form is definitely there 

ANGELS DAWN won this last year but is on an 11-pound higher mark now and much more exposed than he was. 

For the home team, I like RAPPER, who can be in an out, but has performed well at this course before. We can ignore his ‘pulled up’ effort in this race last year as he bled from the nose. A return to form was signaled last time out and he is now on a 4-pound lower mark than last season. He’s won twice off 137 before – is on 138 now but with Anthony O’Neill’s 3 pound claim he is effectively 135. Anthony doesn’t ride too often but being the son of Jonjo O’Neill, I don’t think we can question his pedigree for this! 

VERDICT. With 6 places available with some firms, I’m backing three here. The first two should be in the form to be very competitive – the third needs to bounce back but I feel is a bit overpriced 

RECOMMENDATIONS 

1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN taking 12/1 or better with firms offering 6 places 

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 or better with 6 places 

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE taking 25/1 or better with 6 places 

(5pts in total staked) 

That’s a wrap for Day 3 

Thanks for reading and best of luck with whatever you back 

Paul 

SUMMARY OF DAY 3 RECOMMENDATIONS 

130 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY 5/1 (1/5 123) 

410 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1(1/5 odds 12345) 

530 1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 12/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE 25/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

Total staked on day 11 pts

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2024 – Day 1

11 Mar

The time has come again for this blog to come alive for a week of what should be National Hunt racing’s premier meeting. 

But first some personal venting of the spleen…on a subject that has come to the fore this season. 

It must be said this year there is a bit less excitement coming into the event than usual. For a purist, like myself, who has been an avid watcher since the mid 1970s, there definitely isn’t the same buzz about Festival that there used to be. 

Extra races over recent years have resulted in too many choices of options to run in. This dilution has now, more than ever, resulted in too many uncompetitive championship races with smaller fields and short priced favourites. Coming into the meeting, it used to be clear which horses would be racing there. Now it can be a complete guessing game until final declarations are made. A couple of weeks ago we had two horses listed at 4/7 to win the Champion Hurdle. This just looked plain farcical. 

Thankfully, the prospect of a fifth day for the Festival now seems to have passed and hopefully a return to less races can be done to avoid completely destroying the goose that laid this golden egg! 

With lower prize money in the UK, the domination of Irish powerhouse trainers has spiraled to make the lack of competition even worse. The cost of attending a day at the Festival has also risen to crazy proportions. 

Hopefully these issues can be looked at. On a personal level, I’d like to see mid distance championship races and mares championship races moved to a meeting like Aintree. This would allow the best horses to compete against each other in the same races here and to still have the option to double up! 

That’s enough ranting for the week anyway!…..onto the racing itself, which will hopefully still present some betting opportunities throughout the 4 days ahead. 

The Week ahead and some useful sites… 

It looks certain that we’ll be starting om some taxing soft ground for Day 1 after more rain fell on the track over the weekend. Local trainers have already been reporting that the ground is saturated after so much winter rain. However good the Cheltenham drainage might be, it must be near impossible to dry out in the time left to get to the usual good/good to soft start for the meeting this year. 

Regular updates on the ground throughout the meeting can be found on this page https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/ 

The best site to check out the various odds from different firms (and where to find the best place terms) is here https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival. This will show where the best odds can be found but also which place terms are being offered. It makes a world of difference to the value of a bet if one firm pays 4 places and another pays only 3. I’ll often post that a bet is best taken where the place terms are enhanced for that reason 

As I’ve mentioned in the past, a knowledge of statistics from previous years is always useful to have in your armoury. No better place to get these than www.gaultstats.com 

****

Onto Tuesday’s card and some personal thoughts: 

130 Supreme Novice Hurdle 

The dominance of the Willie Mullins stable in recent years is perfectly encapsulated here as 6 of the 12 runners are trained by him. Apart from seeing who his number one jockey, Paul Townend, has chosen to ride (TULLYHILL here), you’d really need to be privy to some inside info from the Closutton gallops to know how they really compare. Until recently, it seemed the stable number one would be Ballyburn – but with that one switching to Wednesday’s longer race the waters have muddies some more. 

We therefore don’t have a previous Grade 1 winner in the race, and also (unusually) nothing with any respectable previous course form in the field. 

Both TULLYHILL and MYSTICAL POWER (Townend wouldn’t have had choice to ride as Mark Walsh in number one jockey for owner) have undoubted ability but their jumping ability hasn’t always impressed. 

Gordon Elliott is represented by FIREFOX who has to bounce back from a disappointing effort over a longer trip last time out. Prior to that he had defeated Ballyburn. Whilst that form reads well the reports suggest it was a falsely run race that developed into a late sprint. The form may not be quite as good as it initially looks, and almost certainly Ballyburn improved massively afterwards with more forceful tactics being employed 

The UK team is fronted by JERIKO DU REPONET but there is a real question mark over the form of his stable. Apart from Spring Note’s win last weekend, Nicky Henderson has had a torrid time of late. His ace hurdler, Constitution Hill, had to be pulled out of the Champion Hurdle with blood tests explaining some significantly below par home workouts. Several other runners recently have been pulled up to only emphasize how bad stable form is. The performance of Jeriko Du Reponet is going to be a serious benchmark for the rest of the week. There is a definite risk factor in backing him with this in mind. 

The most solid option for me is Henry De Bromhead’s SLADE STEEL who chased home Ballyburn last time and runs here to avoid that horse again. I can imagine that something was still left to work on with him that day, but he was still well clear of the rest of the field and had solid winning form on soft ground before. 

It could well be that the Mullins team think they still have the firepower to beat him. However, at a price of 9/2 or more and some firms offering 4 places, I struggle to imagine that there are more than 3 horses here who can beat him. Assuming he comes in the first four at that price it still means virtually money back in case Mullins team retain an ace in their pack. 

Additionally, there is no problem with the current form of the De Bromhead stable. Out of 6 runners on Sunday, they had 3 winners and 3 placed! 

VERDICT. 

Back Slade Steel at 9/2 or more with firms offering Each way 1/5 odds 1234  

2PTS ew SLADE STEEL at 9/2 or better with four places 

****

210 Arkle Trophy 

A championship race for novice chasers over 2 miles – and thank goodness we have a competitive one. Some renewals of this race recently have had short-priced favourites and low fields. Here we have a field of 10 and apart from rank outsider, AUTHORISED SPEED, I can make a case for all of them (and a negative for all as well) 

This scenario would normally scream out ‘No Bet’ for me so I’d only play if the odds on something were well above what I expected. 

GAELIC WARRIOR and FOUND A FIFTY have both performed well on similar left handed tracks before but have shown a marked tendency to jump to the right in doing so. That’s too big an issue for me to ignore here. 

IL ETAIT TEMPS has yet to replicate his Leopardstown form elsewhere and was disappointing for me here in last years opener after a similar preparation. 

HUNTERS YARN is inexperienced, and while also very promising, he also ran below par on only Festival outing last year. 

I don’t think QUILIXIOS is the same horse as he was when winning the Triumph Hurdle here as a 4yo but he looks a safe jumper who can keep out of trouble at the front of the race. 

MATATA may well be up front with him and has performed well at the track before. A slight worry here that Daryl Jacob could have ridden him but chose Hunters Yarn 

JPR ONE beat MATATA by half a length last time out at Lingfield and would have won here before Christmas but for an unfortunate fall. The Tizzard team was in good form over the weekend so he should not be underestimated but a tendency to idle in front could make him vulnerable on the final hill here. 

MASTER CHEWY was 8 lengths back at Lingfield but he lost all chance there at a first fence incident. We can safely ignore that and his performance in a fast run event at Kempton over Christmas gives him every chance if he can be delivered late. Tom Bellamy was on board there and I’m glad to see him reunited (Sam Twiston Davies riding his stablemate Matata) . Does he need a flat track though is a slight concern 

If the ground was good I’d definitely be picking MY MATE MOZZIE to have the race set up for him to come late. Soft ground probably isn’t his ideal surface but it isn’t completely against him judged on his past form 

VERDICT. A tight race that I won’t b recommending a bet on given all the positives and negatives. There’s too many negatives for me for those at the front of the betting. If I had to choose one it would be My Mate Mozzie but I can see the home side of JPR One, Matata and Master Chewy all having a chance at decent odds. The Irish contingent would all have been better hurdlers but these 3 UK runners have all improved a lot for going chasing. 

*Take note only a handful of firms offer 4 places here which would make a big difference if having an each way bet 

*****

250 Ultima Hcap Chase 

A typically competitive handicap where MEETINGOFTHEWATERS has been popular early after some favourable comments in recent preview evenings. He was given a ‘Gold Cup winner in waiting’ tag at one and could be ‘a stone well in’. The price is short as a result with layers understandably scared of his mercurial trainer, Emmet Mullins. 

If he is as good as those whispers mooted he might well win but on his actual form he is too short a price for me. 

THE GOFFER is vying with him for favouritism and is much more justifiably priced. His fourth in this race off a 2lb higher mark was a fine effort considering what the 1st and 2nd in that race went on to do (Corach Rambler and Fastorslow). A recent win in a charity race won’t show up on his form stats but looks an ideal low key prep for this. Soft ground will be fine (if it got any worse it may be a slight concern). His trainer Gordon Elliott comes out well on previous handicap stats so that’s an additional positive 

Novice chasers also have a good record in this and I also have to support TRELAWNE in this race. He’s racing over shorter trips this season and performing well – but he looks for all the world that 3 miles will bring out further improvement. The booking of Harry Cobden is an added bonus and I’m pleased to see cheekpieces are retained. The lack of headgear at Wetherby seemed to contribute to some wayward hanging to the right that was corrected next time out. 

Low weights can be favoured in this race and would take my eye but only 2 have crept in below 11 stone this year. WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT could be well handicapped and his poor last run was explained by a fibrillating heart. He still has a bit to prove with that condition in mind but if he did come back to form he would have a chance. GEVREY also get another honourable mention at big odds. He outperformed at this meeting last year when placing at 125/1. He’s higher weighted now but now it’s springtime again I could see his form take a leap again 

VERDICT: A tight race where I’ll be backing THE GOFFER and TRELAWNE and looking for 6/1 and 8/1 respectively. Ideally taking them with books offering 6 places  

1pt ew each THE GOFFER 6/1 and TRELAWNE 8/1 (ew 1/5 odds 123456) 

*****

330 Champion Hurdle 

The supposed Premier race of the day is the least attractive for betting in my eyes. The defection of the clear champion in the 2-mile hurdling realm (he would have been a short priced favourite) has only served to give us another likely winner at short odds. STATE MAN was clearly second best last year, but is seemingly way ahead of the rest in this division. At best odds of around 2/5 it’s not hard to say he’s the likely winner and he should win this. As long as there remain 8 runners there is an each way option of getting 3 places but nothing is leaping out to me as guaranteed to be 2nd or 3rd. A race I’ll happily just watch. 

VERDICT. State Man should win but no bet at restrictive odds 

****

410 Mares Hurdle 

Team Mullins again dominates the betting here with LOSSIEMOUTH favourite at around 4/6 and stable mate ASHROE DIAMOND the only rival at single figure odds. Ideally, we would have seen Lossiemouth contending the previous race against State Man and these two races would have suddenly become more competitive.  

I’m not sure the combination of trip and ground is ideal for Ashroe Diamond here to be seen to her best advantage. The ground is probably less of a problem for Lossiemouth but the trip of two and a half miles is a step into the unknown. She did look more of a speed horse to me last year 

To exploit any stamina chinks. Something else will have to make this race a test to negate the favourite’s turn of foot, The trouble is I’m not sure who will as there isn’t an obvious front runner in the field. 

MARIES ROCK has won the race before and will stay but can run too freely and is best being held up (also comes with the Henderson stable form question mark). LOVE ENVOI was second last year and appeals most as the one who could benefit from a test on the likely soft ground…but will she have to make her own running to do it? She certainly won’t get any help from any of the 4 Mullins runners. Last year’s Mares Novice winner YOU WEAR IT WELL led all the way and could be an influence in the outcome of this race if similar tactics are employed again. 

VERDICT. Lossiemouth the likeliest winner but given the possible stamina issue I won’t be backing at prohibitive odds. LOVE ENVOI appeals as the best each way option. Her chances will be increased if there is a good pace on testing ground. No enhanced place terms here at time of writing so just a small each bet at 14/1 recommended 

0.5 pts ew LOVE ENVOI 14/1 

*****

450 Boodles Juvenile Hcap Hurdle 

It’s slightly weird to see the Paul Nicholls stable having their only runner of the day here with top weight LIARI. He’s unbeaten in 3 races this season and so carries a justifiable top weight here. I have to be put off by the recent years’ stats on Nicholls in handicaps (see my post last week). All his wins have also been on flat tracks, completely different to here. 

Early favourite LARK IN THE MORNING may well be well handicapped but I can’t help but think he would prefer better ground and I’m much more taken by the chances of market rival MILAN TINO. 

Connections must have been over the moon to see his mark dropped to 126 for this race (had been 136 based on his French form). The soft ground here should be right up his street and with course experience already gained I make him the one to beat. 

At much bigger odds I also like another course winner AN BRADAN FEASA, who had Milan Tino behind him here earlier in the season. 

On the face of it, he may struggle to reverse Musselburgh form with Liari who beat him 8 lengths and is only 5 pounds better off. However, I’d very much have seen that as a prep run where he might not have been fully tuned up – and this being his prime target on a course he has performed well at before. There has been some 40/1 available on him which is far too big for me…33/1 would also be very acceptable to me in a race where extra places will be paid 

ROARING LEGEND also ran very well in that Musselburgh race but has disappointed on soft ground since. I fear the soft ground will be against him again here but should conditions suddenly improve he would become an interesting outsider as well. 

Recommendations 

1.5 pts ew MILAN TINO 6/1 or more  

0.5 pts ew AN BRADAN FEASA 33/1 or better 

(taking firms offering 6 places rather than 5 if possible) 

*****

530 National Hunt Chase 

Another race that has been changed in recent years. It used to be over 4 miles and qualifying criteria was aimed at slow maturing types who didn’t have a back catalogue of wins in their earlier career. That used to supply a consistently large field but the new criteria has resulted in small fields and taken away horses from Wednesday’s 3-mile novice event. 

We have 7 runners declared this year – and at least a more competitive look than we’ve had on some other recent editions. It’s possible to give all seven a chance. 

There is often a gulf between the top amateur riders in Ireland and those in the UK but the seven we have here do not include any that would put me off having a bet. 

I can find some negatives for those at the front of the betting here. 

CORBETTS CROSS’s fall last time wasn’t his fault but it’s still not ideal as a preparation. His run at the Festival last year when in contention but running out at the final hurdle is also a slight cause for concern. Stamina for this extended trip on soft ground also gives me enough of a doubt at short odds. 

EMBASSY GARDENS did even worse here last year – a performance attributed to him ‘boiling over’ in the preliminaries. You’d want to see the huge crowds aren’t having an effect on him again here. Stamina is less of a problem, but I wouldn’t be going overboard about his latest win. While impressively beating Sandor Clegane, the latter looked to have more of a confidence boosting run on the side of the track with patently worse ground. 

SALVADOR ZIGGY has so much form on decent ground that I have to feel the soft conditions here may be a negative for him. 

This leads me to bigger prices KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY as better options. Both were just behind HENRYS FRIEND last time but on this softer ground and stiffer trip I can see a reverse.on the cards 

With 7 runners, most firms will only offer 2 places each way here, but some are offering 3 places as enhanced terms and that’s here to go 

VERDICT; KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY both appeal as each way bets with firms offering the 1/5 odds 123 enhancement 

1pt ew on both KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY taking 10/1 or better with that place enhancement recommended. (4pts stake in total)

*****

That concludes Tuesday’s fare. I’ll be back on Tuesday evening with a preview for Wednesday after digesting the first day’s results (Henderson stable form on day one could well be a big factor for forthcoming days)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back 

Paul 

Summary of Tuesday Recommendations:

130 2pts ew Slade Steel 9/2 or better taking 1/5 odds 1234

250 1pt ew The Goffer 6/1; 1pt ew Trelawne 8/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12456

410 0.5pts ew Love Envo1 14/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 123

450 1.5pts ew Milan Tino 6/1 or better; 0.5 pts ew An Bradan Feasa 33/1 or better (taking 1/5 odds 123456)

530 1pt ew Kilbeg King; 1pt ew Apple Away – taking 10/1 or better on both with selected firms who offer 1/5 odds 123

(total 17 pts staked on day 1)

 
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Posted by on March 11, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2024 – How do the top trainers perform in handicaps?

27 Feb

With only a couple of weeks ago – and some time on my hands – an early post on the blog this year. With weights due to be published today for the handicap races, I’ve been looking how the top trainers have performed in them over the past 5 festivals.

There are some definite winners and losers highlighted in the tables below. While its always easier to see how your money would go profit/loss wise to a one unit stake, I was also interested in each way performance here.

While the standard each way terms of 1/4 1234 for handicaps of 16 or more runners seem rare to find these days, I’ve applied the enhanced terms of 1/5 123456 which should be quite commonly offered this year.

This covers the 4 handicap chases and 5 handicap hurdles run at the meeting (and also the two runnings of the now defunct novices chase handicap from 2019 and 2020)

Hcap Chases: Ultima, Grand Annual, Plate, Kim Muir

H’cap Hurdles: Boodles, Coral Cup, Pertemps Final, County Hurdle, M Pipe

Findings below are using the recorded SP (it taking an early price and getting Best Odds Guaranteed this could give a higher figure still):

This covers the trainers with most runners in each sphere over the last 5 years. There will be other trainers with a good profit figure but with less overall runners that is largely due to one horse (e.g Corach Rambler twice a winner for Lucinda Russell in hcap chases would skew figures dramatically)

We can see who is doing well – and who can be expensive to follow

GORDON ELLIOTT (also includes Denise Foster for the year she ‘stepped in to cover’ in 2021

Given how many runners he throws in, it’s surprising to see how well you would have come out by backing all of his horses each way blindly – both in hurdles and chases! He is running near to 4 horses in each handicap hurdle – way above all other trainers. You don’t need to be focusing on his perceived number one runner either. Commander of Fleet won the 2022 Coral Cup as a 50/1 outsider ahead of 6 other stablemates including a 9/2 favourite. Last year, Jazzy Matty winning at 18/1 in Boodles and a 125/1 4th place from Gevrey in the Plate were principal each way contributors to coffers.

WILLIE MULLINS

The Mullins team will be dominant again in non handicaps but they are obviously less bothered when it comes to handicaps and come with a financial health warning. They may well be priced too short as well given his perceived dominance so they when they do occasionally come in you won’t be profiting too much. (E.g State Man went off a very low 11/4 fav when winning the 2022 County Hurdle

PAUL NICHOLLS

Once a trainer to be feared in handicaps, the wheel have well and truly fallen off in recent year. Nicholls hasn’t had a handicap win since Le Prezien in 2018 and we have to go back to 2016 to find some consistent strength in these figures. This suggests his runners may well be too exposed to the handicapper by the time they come here. This could well be explained by changes of staff who were more wise to the planning for such races (see the figures of his once assistant Dan Skelton below). Nicholls still must be feared in graded races, but for now he seems one to avoid in handicaps

NICKY HENDERSON

Some interesting figures here. You wouldn’t be in profit by backing him win only but he’s had a much higher proportion of places than others and consistently been profitable on the each way side (nearly half of all his hurdlers finishing in to 6). The evergreen Mill Green has been a prime contributor in last 4 seasons (3rd, 3rd, 6th and 7th at 22/1,33/1, 40/1 and 66/1). Whilst certainly not appearing thrown in he has generally run his best race of the season here and although now 12 he’s still one to remember in this year’s Pertemps when extra places are added. What we do have to bear in mind here though is stable form. It’s dire right now – and highlighted by stable star Constitution Hill failing to shine in a gallop today. Some checking will be required in 10 days time to see if there is some light again in that tunnel!

DAN SKELTON

Skelton has always been known for being able to target a handicap and it’s in hurdles where he performs best. We can break that down even more and say the County Hurdle is most definitely a speciality. Faivoir 33/1 and Chtibello 12/1 have both won in last 5 years in that race – go back a bit further and we can add Mohayyed 33/1 and Superb Story 8/1

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

De Bromhead seems to be a bit less selective in his runners in recent years – maybe he is also concentrating more on graded races. He still is showing a profit in chases though with Maskada’s win in 2023 ‘s Grand Annual at 22/1 keeping his figures high. Hurdles profit/loss is less inspiring. (Also a good chance here that the popularity of any runners ridden by Rachel Blackmore may shorten prices)

VENETIA WILLIAMS

The trainer to keep on side in the Plate in times past (33/1 and 50/1 winners in there), Venetia did suffer a bit of a drought until a 40/1 win and 66/1 place in the 2022 Kim Muir served to remind us she shouldnt be forgotten quite yet. Traditionally she’s one to fear a bit more when the going is soft. Hurdles would be much less her thing

JOE TIZZARD (following on from father Colin)

Again getting the feeling here that his runners have had their marks exposed too much by the time this meeting arrives

******

Hopefully some food for thought here, in particular to the each way angle on Cheltenham handicaps

For a wide variety of other stats, there is no point me writing them up when the excellent http://www.gaultstats.com has already got them in bucketloads (if using dont forget to donate to the cause that prompted all the work that has one into it)

Blog will be back in just under 2 weeks with some race analysis again this year – Cheltenham Festival runs from 12-15 March

Until then, thanks for reading,

Paul

 
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Posted by on February 27, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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