Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Day 1
Welcome back to annual followers of my blog covering the 4 days of National Hunt racing’s Olympics!
I’ll try to work through all races again on a day-by-day basis highlighting where I think there may be some value to be had in betting markets. I’ll have stronger opinions on some races than others. When I make recommendation bets they will already have been backed by myself. Where I don’t see any race as a decent betting medium I’ll try to make a rough suggestion where I can but please bear in mind these come with less confidence and probably negligible financial interest from myself.
My main social media activity now on horse racing is the Blue Sky app (bsky.app) where I’ll post any extra snippets I see during the week (@senormoodoir.bsky.social ). I have already added a few early ante post interests in there this year – some of which the prices have now dropped a good bit on – so the value on those may have disappeared by now.
I used to cover the statistical pointers that can often pick out winners but this is done so much better in recent years by www.gaultstats.com. It is Bryan Gault’s last year doing this invaluable resource and please remember to contribute to the cause he is doing it for if finding it useful.
There is a slightly different look to this year’s Festival with the placement of races and the removal of a couple of races to be replaced by new handicaps.
Centrepiece races have now been moved back to 4pm each day and are now the 5th race on the card. Great news for younger fans who may have been trapped in school and unable to watch – about 50 years too late for me though in that regard!
Ground conditions are always going to play a significant factor. Last year we had softer conditions but there has been less rain this year and some watering has been already done to try and ensure we get Good to Soft or even Good ground which so often the Festival begins with.
Regular going updates throughout the week can be found here https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/
A comparison of prices for each race from all the main bookmakers and what place terms they can offer can be found here https://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2025-03-11-cheltenham
*take note that Oddschecker has now started to charge for this service after they deem you to have used it too much – change to another browser if you can when that happens and you should be able to access again
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Day 1 action:
A full race card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-11. *Again this site does ask for some subscription if you need more detailed information including past form and their own analyses
1.20 Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices Hurdle.
The traditional opener to the meeting is this year run in honour of 2023’s winning jockey, Michael O’Sullivan, who tragically died from a riding accident last month.
It would certainly be quite fitting if the same colours were to triumph again here with William Munny, a horse with a live each-way chance.
William Munny was one of the best bumper horses in Ireland last season but it wasn’t until his 3rd run over hurdles before he started to finally began to realise his hurdling potential with a very easy win at Punchestown. Prior to that he hadn’t settled in his races and was beaten 7 lengths by Workahead at Leopardstown. The two reoppose here but I wouldn’t take that form literally as the second looked a different article last time.
Romeo Coolio was similar level in bumpers to William Munny last year and has transitioned to hurdles very well this year.
These three are all contenders for the places for me though if Kopek Des Bordes can show the same form that blew away a decent field with ease at Leopardstown in February. One of six runners from the all-powerful Willie Mullins stable here, he is clearly their number one.
His hurdling debut showed some jumping flaws bu they did seem to have been ironed out next time. However he did show a possible weakness when getting very lit up in the preliminaries and looking like he might get out of control with jockey Paul Townend early on. I’m sure the stable would have worked on that since and a hood is applied for the first time here to help deal with the task he is going to face (Willam Munny also wearing the same first time headgear).
There is a real pressure cooker atmosphere for the first race as the crowd get revved up for the first race and there is a traditional roar. False starts are not uncommon in this race so it does present a test for the favourite.
In short I think, the biggest rival for Kopek Des Bordes could be himself. If the start goes fine and he settles he is going to take a lot of beating. If things don’t go so well then others have a chance.
At around Even money to win I can’t therefore support him.
In the past many firms have dangled a carrot in this opening race with extra places to give some value. Only Skybet have gone that far this year but in so doing are offering slightly lower prices than others so I’m still not getting too excited there (marginal preference for Romeo Coolio as the one who looks guaranteed to finish in the top 4 to me but not much between him, Workahead and William Munny)
I must also mention Tripoli Flyer who showed what an engine he has when winning the last twice easily despite some indifferent hurdling. His best form is all on decent ground (should get that) and on flat tracks (won’t get that). I thought Aintree in April would be far more suitable for him so a little surprised to see him running here. If he can cope with the track he is definitely dangerous. However, the fact his stable haven’t yet run him here , despite being almost next door to the track, suggests to me that it may not be ideal for him.
Selection: KOPEK DES BORDES (but not a betting proposition for me)
****
2.00 Arkle Challenge Trophy
I’ve already covered this in my earlier post regarding some early selections. Not much has changed except there are now only 5 runners and so there is no more each way with 3 places.
I think Majborough will win if he jumps round cleanly – but he is flamboyant at times and I can easily see him making a bad mistake at some point on this tricky course. If he does that would let the clean jumping course winner L’Eau Du Sud in as the most likely to profit.
Both horses have already beat Touch Me Not this season and should do so again. That one’s inclusion in the race is good though as he is a decent jumper who can put pressure on the favourite up front.
Jango Baie looks like he needs further and might be caught for pace at a crucial stage but should be running on late. Only By Night also looks likely to be held up and delivered late but I just don’t think her form is good enough to win.
Selection: I’ve already put up L’EAU DU SUD when each way 1/5 odds 123 was available. Place odds are less attractive now this has become less of a betting proposition. I still think he represents a little more value than the odds on favourite Majborough though
****
2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase
Always a competitive handicap and one that has served me well over the years.
I’m find it very tricky this year though!
The Changing Man has done well to stay on a mark of 140 after a bloodless win last time (aided by all his rivals making errors). He has been a slow developer with his jumping technique but finally seems to have got his act together now. Whilst he has been consistent in decent handicaps this season he has been beaten in them off lower marks than here. The handicap record of his trainer Joe Tizzard (see my earlier post on trainer stats) is also disconcerting. He has a chance but I can see him placing again rather than winning – and also I think a smaller field may have suited him better.
Broadway Boy has a fine record on this course and runs here in preparation for the Grand National. That slightly puts me off here as you would imagine that connections have left some room for improvement with a bigger aim to come. He may prefer softer and for a front runner to win this off such a high weight would be quite some task.
I’ve always been drawn to lower weights carrying less than 11 stone in this race.
Katate Dori would immediately therefore be on the shortlist after an impressive win last time that sees his mark increase by 12 pounds here. He may well still be ahead of the handicapper.
Lucinda Russell has won race before and has both Whistle Stop Tour and Myretown in the right weight zone. The former has stable jockey Derek Fox on board and appears to be the number one (if there is a jockey switch take note). He had a nice sighter of these fences over an inadequate trip last time. Additionally, Whistle Stop Tour would appear to appreciate the drying conditions while Myretown may prefer softer.
Marginal preference though is for Irish challenger, The Short Go who had Broadway Boy behind him here earlier in the season (latter beaten 11 lengths and is only 5 pounds better of). He obviously doesn’t cope with deep winter ground and the forecast conditions here must be in his favour. With Rachel Blackmore on board, he might well be a popular pick on the day. Expect to see a hold up ride with him being smuggled into the race late on.
I also can’t leave an old friend, Straw Fan Jack, completely alone at huge odds. His form has been indifferent this year but there were signs of a revival last time and he’s now on a 6 pound lower mark than when 3rd at the Festival last year (Reopposing Crebilly just ahead but worse off here yet a much shorter price). His jumping can be erratic but his form at Cheltenham overall isn’t bad. The trip is a slight question mark but he is a huge price to make up for that
Selections: Not a race for risking too much on but I’m interested in The Short Go at around 14/1 each way with firms offering 6 places. Also a speculative little each way on Straw Fan Jack at 50/1 or bigger
Recommendations
1pt ew The Short Go
0.5 pts ew Straw Fan Jack
3.20 Mares Hurdle
The complexion of this race changed enormously at the final declaration stage when last year’s winner, Lossiemouth, was declared rather than the Champion Hurdle.
Her form should be on a different level to the rest but she did suffer a nasty fall last time. She should win, but there is always going to be a slight seed of doubt about whether she is fully 100% given she sidestepped the bigger prize.
With her being odds-on favourite it’s also killed any hope of being offered an extra place on the race.
It’s possible to give place chance to nearly all the rest but I’m most drawn to Queens Gamble given she has such good past course form and will like the better ground.
A plot to take a big handicap at Leopardstown in February was scuppered by softer conditions and a bruised knee during the race (also not Blackmore’s finest of rides).
I think she’ll benefit form a longer trip here and can see her running well.
She probably won’t beat the favourite if on song but many firms offer ‘betting without the favourite’ and that option becomes more interesting in this circumstance.
Selection: QUEENS GAMBLE each way in the ‘Betting without Lossiemouth’ market at hopefully 16/1 or better
Recommendation: 1pt ew Queens Gamble – in betting without Lossiemouth market
*****
4.00 Champion Hurdle
I’ll cut to the chase here for Tuesday’s premier race.
Constitution Hill is probably the best hurdler I have seen since Golden Cygnet in the mid 1970s when I first started watching this sport.
Unless something is ailing him, and I can’t imagine he would be here if his trainer didn’t think he was 100% , then I struggle to see him getting beaten. If anything, my biggest worry would be the final hurdle. He didn’t met it right in his last run and when last wining this race he jumped way too early after seeing a shadow on it
Brighterdaysahead is a fine mare and its great to see here in this rather than the Mares Hurdle. Her pacemaker, King of Kingsfield, should make this race a true test. They employed similar tactics to hand out a thrashing to the 2024 Champion Hurdler, State Man, over the Christmas period.
That tactic should be enough to derail any hopes for State Man again, but if anything it will be help for Constitution Hill. The favourite’s most impressive career win in the Supreme Novices Hurdle came on the back of a breakneck pace also.
Burdett Road likes to force the pace also so might also find himself on the backfoot on the uphill home straight.
I put up Golden Ace as a value each way proposition on Blue Sky at 100/1 at the beginning of the year. I thought I had done my money on that as she looked likely to be in the Mares Hurdle but a late change of mind was very welcome.
I can see here being ridden for a place here (will add plenty of value to her as a broodmare) and am hopeful she can take advantage of others being broken by the favourite.
There is no more 100/1 though and no more 3 place options for each way so the value on her has largely gone
Selection; CONSTITUTION HILL – but at no more than 8/13 there aren’t too many rich pickings to be gained here
***
4.40 Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Another race where I was active on Blue Sky a few weeks ago to suggest Hot Fuss at 33/1 after an unconventional prep run at Southwell.
I think he ran in one of the best juvenile races in the UK this season when putting it up to current Triumph Hurdle favourite, East India Dock, at Wincanton. He was a little disappointing in deep ground at Chepstow over Christmas but that has meant he has a nice low mark of 122 here. His Southwell win wouldn’t have affected his mark but it showed an improved performance sporting a first time visor.
Connections now use first time blinkers and I think he’s very much one to keep on the right side of whilst he has an attractive mark.
Chief danger is another of East India Dock’s victims this year, French raider Stencil. Stencil was the only one to keep with his conqueror’s strong pace last time and only gave way in the closing stages after travelling noticeably well. He is the likely favourite here but I don’t think his mark of 135 is unduly harsh – and the pace of this race will suit.
James Reveley has been saying is preview evenings recently that his mount is better than a handicapper and I tend to agree.
Far less attractive is well supported Irish raider, Total Look, who I think may almost get the prize of worst handicapped horse in the race. His UK mark of 132 is 9 pounds higher than his current Irish mark of 123. Additionally, he was beaten by both Quantock Hills and Teriferma at this track in December when receiving weight from both. Now he has to give them both 6 pounds. Cheekpieces may be on for the first time and his trainer is a shrewd operator – but if this wins there should be a stewards enquiry for some explanations!
I’m largely in the mind that Irish juvenile hurdlers this season are coming into this a little bit too harshly handicapped. It must be noted though that Joseph O’Brien won this last year with another horse who didn’t look that well in but had been prepared especially for the race. Take note then for any strong money on the day for Puturhandstogether or Beyond Your Dreams (not least because they are both owned by prolific punter JP McManus)
Selections:
STENCIL Each way taking 11/2 or better – some firms offering 6 places but not all
HOT FUSS 12/1 each way – the really nice prices have already gone unfortunately
Recommendations
2pts ew Stencil
1pt ew Hot Fuss
*****
5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices Chase H’cap
A big change to this long distance novices race this year. For the first time it is now a handicap and is no longer the domain of amateur riders. A ceiling for horse with marks no more than 145 also restricts the upper echelon of novice chasers from taking part. A bit of early planning from some stables would have been needed.
As there is no previous running there are no previous stats to work from either.
Another race I’ve already covered to some degree when offering up Haiti Couleurs in my Early Ante Post selections post.
I’m still strongly in his favour. Connections think highly enough of him to think they could have run him in the Turners Novice Chase tomorrow – a non-handicap novices championship race – but his handicap mark of 135 meant this race was always going to be more ttractive.
He has purposefully been given a small break since his immaculate round of jumping to secure a course win here in December. A hurdles run last month which would not affect his chase mark was more than satisfactory and his trainer has a great strike rate at the Festival from not too many past runners
That Cheltenham piece of form is the key to this race I think and also throws up his biggest danger, Transmission. Neil Mulholland’s charge is reunited with Patrick Mullins here and is 4 pounds better off for just over 2 lengths. He has also had a recent run over hurdles to protect his chase mark and promises to be suited by a longer trip.
The prevailing ground shouldn’t be a barrier to either horse and I think they are the two best handicapped horses in this race on this years form.
Gericault Roque is also well handicapped on past Festival form but he has only run once this year after a long lay-off since 2022. There is always a chance of a dip back in form after such a break but he still can’t be totally discounted.
Again we have a short priced Gavin Cromwell runner here, Now Is the Hour, where I simply don’t get the shortened odds. He has undoubtedly not been showing all his card this year to try and get a slimmer mark but 139 has a bit bigger waistline that they would have hoped for. His stand out piece of form comes from very deep ground at Haydock. That’s a specialist track when the ground is deep and it’s like chalk and cheese compared to this course with drier conditions
Selections: HAITI COULEURS 4/1 and TRANSMISSION 11/2 (currently best prices with all firms seeming offering 5 places rather than 6)
Recommendations:
2pts ew Haiti Couleurs
1.5 pts ew Transmission
****
Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back this week,
Paul
(I will be posting my thoughts for Wednesday’s card late tomorrow afternoon after scrutinising early results)
Already recommended on previous blog post L’Eau Du Sud 2.40 and Haiti Couleurs 5.20
Already recommended on previous BSky posts – Golden Ace e/w 100/1 4.00; Hot Fuss 33/1 4.40
(Note I have also also recommended Beat the Bat in Wednesday’s Coral Cup at 25/1 on BSky who was also confirmed for the race today and I’ll cover again tomorrow)
thefinalfence 