Tag Archives: cheltenham-festival

Onto the final day’s action 

As I write with 3 races complete on Day 3, the ground appears to be improving a little and is now Soft rather than Heavy. If we get no rain in the next 24 hours, then it could be decent conditions tomorrow. There is currently some rain forecast overnight though. A check of conditions tomorrow morning will influence the strength of some of my picks below. For now, I’m assuming it will be the same as today 

A nice winner on the blog on day 3 with Shakemupharry means recommended bets are now showing a 10.7 pt profit this week from 32 pt staked (including places from Ginnys Destiny and Where It All Began). Golden Ace not recommended but favourably mentioned. Hopefully some latched onto her as well.

A proper JP McManus plot came to fruition in the last with Inothewayurthinking winning easily and justifying a fairly ridiculous looking price of 13/8 in a 22 runner handicap.

A good day for the UK side otherwise with 5 winners from the 7 races

*******

130 Triumph Hurdle 

Sadly, the problems with the Henderson stable meant that ante post favourite Sir Gino was taken out of this race today. At least we got to know the news early so markets could be adjusted in good time 

It’s hard not to see an Irish success with only heavy ground loving SALVER seemingly having any chance for the home side. It’s impossible to equate his form against the Irish but I would suspect he hasn’t beaten too much of note as yet – even if he hasn’t been pushed to do so. 

Most of the Irish runners have been running against each other this season and their form is closely tied. There is no standout contender amongst them. KARGESE came out best at Leopardstown last time but given that was MAJBOROUGH’s first run since leaving France, it would be no surprise to see him improve enough to turn the table. 

NURBURGRING didn’t run there but was only a nose behind KARGESE in his last run. He’s a classy flat staying performer and I feel wasn’t suited at all by the slow pace that day. A stronger gallop here looks to be ideal for him. I like he’s been given a break to freshen up for this and with the stable already winning one juvenile hurdle at this meeting he’s my favoured option. 

SALVATOR MUNDI hasn’t run since April last year when just beaten by Sir Gino in France. That form reads very well now but his preparation has been held up and he was forced to miss the big Leopardstown trial. Coming here on his first run for Mullins is pitching in very deep very quickly. Jockey booking doesn’t suggest he’s the main hope of the Mullins stable either. I suspect he’s more of a project now to keep his maiden status here with novice hurdling in mind next season. 

VERDICT. With the ground not quite as deep as it was, I think the useful flat performer Nurburgring will be favoured most and with some firms offering 4 places will do for me. 

RECOMMENDATION: 1.5 pts ew NURBURGRING 7/1 (with firms offering 1/5 odds 1234) 

*****

210 County Hcap Hurdle 

Dan Skelton has already been in terrific form at this Festival, and this is the race in which he has always excelled. Both L’EAU DU SUD and last year’s winner FAIVOIR therefore have to be prime contenders here. Both ran very well when they were in 2nd and 5th place in Newbury’s Tote Gold Trophy. FAIVOIR has done that form no harm since. He still remains on a good mark here while L’EAU DU SUD was raised 6 pounds since Newbury. Oddsmakers are well aware of the Skelton record here though so don’t expect generous pricing 

KING OF KINGSFIELD had ABSURDE behind him when both were some way behind the two principles in a hot novice event last time. However, that was behind two horses who have won here since this week. His mark of 140 certainly looks very generous now. I just wonder if he wants better ground, but his class could still see him through 

It’s last year’s race where I go to find an outsider who I think could run well here. It’s always a tough ask for 5-year-olds to do well in handicap hurdles but PETIT TONNERRE didn’t do badly at all to be 6 lengths behind FAIVOIR and the second PIED PIPER. He’s had an interesting time over chases this season where I often got the feeling his mark was being looked after. He reverts to hurdles here and connections have reached for a first-time visor. Six is a much better age for this race and his mark is now 4 pounds lower 

VERDICT. I think a few at the top of the market are just a bit too short so am going for a bit of value with all the extra places being offered 

RECOMMENDATION 0.5 pts ew PETIT TONNERRE (look for 25/1 or better with firms offering 6 places or more) 

*****

250 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle 

Soft ground for this longer distance novice event can often throw some surprise winners. It’s sometimes the experience and hardened types who can get their moment in the sun. 

I think there is no more promising novice in the UK than GIDLEIGH PARK, but I do worry if 3 miles in soft ground at this stage of his development could be too much. If he were mine, I’d rather they skipped this race and saved him for Aintree if being honest 

He’s much more attractively priced than READINTOMMYWRONG who also promises to improve again over this trip but is unproven. The price here is no doubt influenced by the power of his stable in the novices department

VERDICT. I’m a big fan of GIDLEIGH PARK and wouldn’t want to back against him. I’d rather back win only here as it’s the type of race I could see many runners being looked after for the future if the test appears to be too much for them 

RECOMMENDATION 

1.5 pts win GIDLEIGH PARK taking 13/2 or better 

*****

330 Cheltenham Gold Cup 

The premier race of the meeting sees rivalry ensued by last year’s impressive winner GALOPIN DES CHAMPS and FASTORSLOW. They have never met on this course but since have met 3 times and the score is currently 2-1 to FASTORSLOW. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS has won the latest duel coming out victorious by 4 lengths 

I can’t really envisage a winner coming outside of these 2. Last year’s Grand National winner CORACH RAMBLER would be dangerous if within spitting distance with half a mile to go but I fear he may get himself too far detached. 

The state of the ground will have some bearing here. The softer it is favours GALOPIN DES CHAMPS but if it dries some more, it gets closer. It’s been noticeable that FASTORSLOW has gained more lengths while jumping than his rival in all their meetings. 

Also worth noting that FASTORSLOW had wind surgery straight after his last run. 

VERDICT. It is the pricing that dictates matter for me here. GALOPIN DES CHAMPS is around Evens while FASTORSLOW is around 5/1. I think the former remains the likeliest winner but don’t see the gap between them being as big as odds suggest. I also struggle to see FASTORSLOW out of the frame and with many firms offering an enhanced four places that has to be the value play for me . Mullins Gold Cup winners tend to have come here when they have had a light and easy preparation. This year things haven’t been always so smooth in th warm up to make me think the favourite is a certainty

RECOMMENDATION; 2pts ew FASTORSLOW 5/1 (taking 1/5 odds 1234 where available) 

*****

410 Foxhunters Chase 

I’ve never been an expert on the point to point/hunter chase realm so will have to take a pass on it here. The only vibe I really get is that FERNS LOCK would have stamina issues on this trip/ground 

NO BET 

*****

450 Mares Chase 

DINOBLUE’s form is clearly the best here but it all comes at 2 miles. Over an extra half mile on soft ground there has to be a question mark that I certainly wouldn’t want to be taking 11/10 to find out the answer. 

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from BRIDES HILL this season and apparently no horse works better in Gavin Cromwell’s yard. The ground is her issue. I would have no hesitation in backing her here on good to soft or better, but this may be too soft? 

Stablemate LIMERICK LACE will have no such ground issues. She really wants a longer trip but will expose any stamina frailties in rivals. It’s interesting that Keith Donoghue seemed to be certainly riding Brides Hill a week ago but has switched to her. 

ALLEGORIE DE VASSY was second last year but is a quirky mare who definitely has two ways of running. She’s capable of winning but not reliable. 

VERDICT. Not a race for me to get involved with until I’ve seen what the ground is like mid afternoon tomorrow. I do favour the two Cromwell mares’ chances at the prices. If the ground appears to be drying, I’d be with BRIDES HILL. If it remains testing, then I’d favour LIMERICK LACE. But for now……NO BET 

*****

530 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle 

The final race is often full of budding talent that could be beyond the grip of the handicapper. It’s not that long since Galopin Des Champs first advertised his talent in this. 

The market certainly expects QUAI DE BOURBON and WATERFORD WHISPERS to be two such types. Prices of 3/1 and 4/1 in a competitive 23 runner handicap don’t get me jumping in the air with excitement though. WATERFORD WHISPERS’s form is closely tied with ANSWER TO KAYF who is double the price. 

I like the fact that ANSWER TO KAYF has been ridden regularly by the same conditional rider who accompanies him here. I’d just feel a bit happier if John Shinnick had some previous experience on this course. 

A mention also has to be given to OCASTLE DES MOTTES who was a warm favourite for the Tote Gold Trophy but lost his chance when getting upset at the start. He retains a mark that looks generous on his previous French form 

NO ORDINARY JOE was second in this last year off only a 1-pound lower mark. He looked to be being set up for the race again but as he comes from the troubled Henderson stable it’s impossible to be sure if he’ll be 100% here 

VERDICT: I slightly favour ANSWER TO KAYF but am struggling to see any great value in odds available right now’ A couple of firms offering 9/1 on him right now is close to a recommendation for small stakes. I’d ideally like to see him slip out to a double figure price tomorrow to get involved 

NO BET 

****

That’s all for Day 4 and for this year’s Cheltenham Festival 

Hope you have enjoyed reading today and throughout the week 

Paul 

The second day of the Cheltenham Festival has somehow acquired the moniker of ‘Style Wednesday’. Whilst not attending the meeting I’ll have to remember to don my smoking jacket and cravat now for tomorrow’s fare! If you are going – and the weather is the same as on Tuesday morning – the ‘style’ decision maybe what colour Hunter wellies to wear. 

A quick resume of Tuesday’s action first: 

The stable form of Nicky Henderson was given no boost at all by Jeriko Du Reponet pulling up in the opener. Luccia did run well in the Champion Hurdle but Iberico Lord and Maries Rock also underperformed badly. 

More rain than was expected contributed to some very testing heavy ground.  It’s been dry during today and with little rain on the forecast tomorrow it may slip back to Soft going. There is an inspection at 8am for the Cross Country course which was waterlogged today. That will only affect the 410 race but if that does get cancelled we may get some time changes on the remainder of the card 

A great start to the meeting for this blog with Slade Steel winning the opener. Unfortunately couldn’t add any more but The Goffer (ground too heavy for him I ear) and Milan Tino crept into advised places. That ends up with a 3.3 pt profit on the days recommendations.

Tomorrow isn’t as appealing generally on the betting front for me but my thoughts with a few recommendations below

*****

130 Gallaghers Novices Hurdle 

Not the most competitive look to the opener with the Willie Mullins stable fielding 5 of the 8 runners – including the first 3 in the betting. 

BALLYBURN has had the appearance of being a banker in whichever race he ran here in for a while. The victory of his latest victim, Slade Steel, in Tuesday’s opener has cemented this even more. Stamina and ground don’t look to be in question so it’s hard to see any other winner now. 

If the UK side do have a surprise up their sleeve it should be HANDSTANDS. Ben Pauling knows what it takes to win this race after Willoughby Court in 2017.  This one is full of potential and unbeaten in four races – albeit at a lower level. He is being chucked in at the deep end now but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him run well. (Pauling had no issues about the deep ground for Handstands today when asked on Racing TV) 

VERDICT 

Ballyburn should win but the price is too short for me to recommend. I admit to a small each way bet ante post on Handstands at 16/1 but that guarantees 3 places. Here would need the 8 runners all to start to get that and I think the task ahead of him increased after todays action 

NO BET 

*****

210 Brown Advisory Novices Chase 

Another small field with only six here. FACT TO FILE has been the subject of glowing reviews from his stable and in preview evenings coming into this. ‘The next Gold Cup winner’ is a general vibe. I’d normally like to take his profile on given he has beaten very few horses in small fields. However, he did so in some very good times. I the combination of trip and ground isn’t an issue for him I’m inclined to think there may be something behind the hype here. At around EVS I wouldn’t want to bet him, but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either. 

He appeared to break the will of his only rival Gaelic Warrior last time. That one did no harm to the form though on Tuesday! 

STAY AWAY FAY won the 3-mile novice hurdle here last season and we can expect him to try and make this a test to exploit any stamina chinks. I think his connections may have preferred a bigger field though where he wouldn’t have to do all the donkey work himself. 

MONTYS STAR looks a similar staying type to Stay Away Fay but wrapped up in a larger form. He didnt perform well on the course last year – that’s a negative but his stable have been performing well on day one

SANDOR CLEGANE was a bit unlucky behind Stay Away Fay here last season and at the start of the season was of interest to me for this race. He hasn’t looked like the most natural chaser so far though. His run last time looked to be a confidence boosting one to get him round safely. If he can jump quicker, I can see him running well at a price. But this isn’t the track or level of race to be on learning on 

VERDICT 

Another race that doesn’t entice me in to bet. Fact to File is my idea of the winner but again I don’t see enough value in the price to get involved 

NO BET 

****

250 Coral Cup 

Some disappointment for me now coming into this competitive handicap. I had DODDIETHEGREAT and LUCKY PLACE marked down as my early picks. They are both trained by Nicky Henderson though and after day 1, the stable form there remains a major concern. 

The form of Doddiethegreat’s last run has been hugely boosted since and he looked like the step up in trip here would suit him greatly. 

Lucky Place’s latest course run against a very talented rival in Gidleigh Park was form that surpassed his mark of 137 in my view. The softer ground here would be a small question mark 

They would have both been a recommendation but for the elephant in the room that now exists! 

SA MAJESTE looks like a typical well hyped but underpriced Willie Mullins runner in a handicap. He’s fairly impossible to handicap, is very inexperienced and could be ten pounds well in or ten pounds badly in. As my post from last week suggests, following Mullins in handicaps isn’t the road to riches. 

BUILT BY BALLYMORE is much more one to be wary of. The market isn’t taking any chances here though. Trainer Martin Brassil is possibly the most underrated trainer in Ireland and had two close seconds in handicaps at last year’s Festival. Again, it’s hard to handicap him properly but the team behind is much more one to fear in this kind of scenario in my mind 

I’ve backed BALLYADAM at the Festival before but feel better ground will suit him 

LANGER DAN won this race off the same mark last year and having performed so well at this time of the year before has to be on the shortlist. Again, I’m not sure if the ground might be riding a bit too deep for him though 

MIGHT I will have no problems with the ground and ran well at the Festival last year off a higher mark. He’s spent this season chasing so far – and not very successfully. If that hasn’t taken its toll and Harry Fry has managed to get him back to his best, he would be a big runner here 

VERDICT: I thought I had this race cornered but the huge issue of Henderson stable form has prevented me getting involved at this stage 

NO BET 

*****

330 Queen Mother Champion Chase 

A few weeks ago, this looked like a two-horse race with EL FABIOLO and JONBON renewing rivalry. El Fabiolo was much the best in the Arkle last year and remains unbeaten in 6 chase races. Interest has been boosted though by a renaissance of form from 2022 Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE.  

Alan King’s runner had been comfortable held by Jonbon twice this season when given hold up rides. However, he was allowed to bowl along up front last time and put in an exemplary round of precision jumping to win easily at Newbury. 

This race now revolves around Edwardstone being given free rein up front once more. If he performs like he did at Newbury his superior jumping could take others out of their comfort zone. Both El Fabiolo and Jonbon can make mistakes (the latter appears to be getting worse and was even seen belting a fence in schooling on YouTube recently). 

If he can get in such a rhythm and unsettle the others, it’s then a question of him having enough in the tank to last home in soft ground. 

I think El Fabiolo is still the most likely winner here, but I wouldn’t be touching him at short odds. 

I can easily see Edwardstone bettering Jonbon this time though. 

CAPTAIN GUINNESS was second in this last year and could also benefit if ridden quietly behind the principals and pick rivals off late. He was a sick horse at Christmas and was patently looked after in an encouraging reappearance at Leopardstown in February. I’m not sure he’d have wanted all the rain that came early this week though. Some drying ground and I can see him placing again

The presence of another front runner in GENTLEMAN DU MEE and prominent racer ELIXIR DE NUTZ should ensure this race is run at a good clip. There should be no hiding places for any of them here 

VERDICT. Whilst thinking El Fabiolo might well win I see more value in supporting Edwardstone each way. I can’t imagine they won’t employ the same tactics as suited him so well last time. I’d also like him in the Betting Without favourite market 

Recommendation 

1pt ew EDWARDSTONE – generally available 15/2 (as there are 8 runners 3 places will be paid. If there is a non-runner this may revert to 2 places but always worth checking if some firms offer the more advantageous 3 places) 

*****

410 Cross Country Chase 

However soft/heavy the regular track is, the cross-country course is reported to be worse. I’ve been no fan of this style of race for betting for many years and will happily pass again. It seems to have developed into a race for Gold Cup veterans these days 

A fairly categoric (as usual in this race) NO BET 

****

450 Grand Annual Hcap Chase 

This race was always a regular target for Nicky Henderson as it is run in honour of his father. We don’t need to worry about stable form this time as he doesn’t have a runner this year. 

The market seems to think SAINT ROI has been laid out for the race, but I couldn’t touch him given the abysmal jumping he displayed at Leopardstown last time veering violently to the right at times. 

HARPERS BROOK is extremely quirky but has found a niche for his talents at two miles this season. He carries a health warning though as he is prone to stop when in front. If he is 10 lengths clear at last don’t assume he has it in the bag. If you back him a lay bet on Betfair Exchange at short odds is strongly encouraged for some insurance. 

PATH D’OROUX is an interesting contender from a stable that knows how to plot for race like this. He will like the ground but is his jumping good enough? 

LIBBERTY HUNTER is the progressive novice in the pack that often does well in this race but has to defy a large rise from the handicapper. MADARA is also on an upward curve but 13 pounds higher than his last win at this track. 

TRIPLE TRADE caught Harpers Brook on the run in at Ascot earlier in the season and reopposes on the same terms. However, he is a much larger price as his latest run at Lingfield was disappointing. That looked to be bad to be true. He has looked to be suited by the uphill finish here before. The ground is a slight question mark but as he’s won on heavy earlier in his career. The Tizzard team may not have the best record in handicaps here but they were in good form over the weekend 

VERDICT; I’m willing to give Triple Trade a chance to get his progression back on track here given the odds available 

Recommendation:  

0.5 pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (generally available with 1/5 odds 12345 – 6 places in one place) 

*****

530 Champion Bumper 

Another specialist race with no jumping involved. It’s a nursery in essence for next year’s hurdling novice hurdle events. Willie Mullins traditionally has a great record and has won 4 of the last 6 runnings. That’s not surprising though given he many runners he normally fields. This year he fields 9 of the 24 runners. 

If jockey bookings are a sign, then his favoured would be JASMIN DE VAUX (Patrick Mullins) and CANTICO (Paul Townend). 

That doesn’t always go to plan here though and he has won with bigger priced runners as well. 

My eye is mainly drawn to C’EST TA CHANCE who was the subject of positive reports before Christmas. He was narrowly beaten by William Munny is his only start but after that one looked really special on his next start; the form doesn’t look bad at all. 

THE YELLOW CLAY from Gordon Elliott’s stable was the eyecatcher in the main trial race for this at Leopardstown in February. I’m just a little concerned that stable jockey jack Kennedy has chosen JALON D’OUDAIRES instead. 

Verdict: Not a race to go wild on with stakes but I’m willing to take a chance on C’est Ta Chance at decent odds 

Recommendation 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 16/1 or better (take with firms offering 1/5 odds 12345 if possible) 

Thanks for reading once more and good luck 

Paul