Tuesday has ‘Good to Soft’ as the expected ground but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s riding nearer to Good given the weather forecast
The weather has certainly been fine over the last few days as this interesting PR shot that appeared today testifies….
Short but sweet – here’s the selections with some already covered in the Preview blog 1.30 Already covered in the Preview, I’m happy to see some 9/2 available for Altior and the best option is to go with Paddy Power who offer 1/5th odds a place 1234. The extra place offered counts for a lot Recommendation 2pts ew ALTIOR @9/2 (Paddy Power)
2.10
Douvan looks an exceptional novice and given a clear round it will be a shock if he’s beaten. Odds of 2/5 reflect this and with now only 7 runners there isn’t really an each way angle to play with. Vaniteux and Sizing John should be fighting it out for second from a form basis but there’s always a danger that if they try to take on the fav they could suffer for it and let the way in for one of the outsiders to jump into the frame. A race to watch but no bet for me now
2.50
Out Sam was my choice yesterday and I’ll stick with that although I won’t put him forward as a recommendation as the hoped for price of 8/1 is no longer there now. I do think he’s very well handicapped but it is in the back of my mind that he may not be streetwise enough for such a big field. It’s a very hot race with Holywell, Southfield Theatre and Morning Assembly all capable of performing well off their respective marks. Southfield Theatre would be marginally the pick of these for me from a price perspective at 20/1 with the prospect of the ground now getting close to the good he prefers
3.30Champion Hurdle
Again covered in the preview and 6/1 still there for The New one so that is where the recommendation lies.
Preview night chat seems to suggest that Sempre Medici will be held out back and ridden to place rather than win so he could be the one for anyone looking for a long priced outsider.
Sadly Old Guard didn’t make it into the race due to a muscle problem 1.5pts ew THE NEW ONE @6/1 (Betfred ¼ 123)
4.10
Covered in the preview again and the ground would seem to be coming right for Polly Peachum (and quite possibly against Vroum Vroum Mag)
Stephanie Frances is interesting at a big price. Dan Skelton has stated he’ll only run her if she gets her beloved good ground and that seems increasingly likely. The trip is a question mark but if this was a slow pace (has happened in this race before) she does have a potent turn of foot. With trailblazer Desert Queen in the field however, we are more likely to get a proper stamina test
1.5pts ew POLLY PEACHUM @13/2 (Coral ¼ 123)
4.50
No bet here. Minella Rocco looks to be plotted up for this but still has to questions to prove on jumping around this course. If I were forced to pick one it would be Measureofmydreams but I could easily make a shortlist of 7 or 8 possible winners in this tricky marathon event.
5.30
This is a handicap but with only 4lbs separating the 20 runners you would be forgiven for knowing that!
I’ve had this race in mind for Double Shuffle for some time and he’s jumped around the course with aplomb already twice this season. He’s only been raised 4 lbs for a win on ground that was probably a bit too soft for him and the surface here should suit much better. He was a decent hurdler but chasing was always going to see him in a better light and hope he can get Paddy Brennan off the scoresheet on what could be a good week for him. Enhanced place terms available here with Betfair Sportsbook if you can get on with them
Aloomomo is feared and had a nice prep over hurdles at Ascot for this. He’s ben raised 11lbs since his last chase win and may well be up to that. The ground will be quicker here than what he has won on before however. At a best price of 6/1 I think the market has him plenty short enough already. Recommendation: 1pt ew DOUBLE SHUFFLE @11/1 (Betfair Sportsbook ¼ odds 12345)
Thanks for reading and good luck!
Paul
*MIDDAY UPDATE*
Main news this morning was the almost nonchalant aanouncement that Vautour would head for the Ryanair on Thursday instead of Friday’s Gold Cup by the owner (last week he was quoted as ‘Gold Cup’ or nothing). This will have sent the Ryanair market into disarray. It’s good news for Cue Card supporters like myself and I imagine that Smad Place backers will take most heart from this announcement. That one is now far more likely to get the uncontested lead he seems to enjoy (Road to Riches could possibly keep him company)
As for today’s bets. Unfortunately the blog went up just last night after Pricewise (Tom Segal) put up his selections which included Double Shuffle in the last. Consequently the odds weren’t around for long on that. The 9/2 on Altior has gone but I’m surprised to see that Polly Peachum has gone out to 15/2 with some firms (giving 15/8 on the place despite that being no higher than 11/8 on exchange place only markets). This is largely due to strong support for the favourite Vroum Vroum Mag.
In the 2.50 Out Sam has hit the desired 8/1 price with a few firms and with 5 places available that is now an extra bet for the blog.
Recommendation
1pt ew OUT SAM @8/1 1/4 12345 (Bet 365, Bet Victor)
Day 1 selections summary
2pts ew ALTIOR @9/2
1pt ew OUT SAM @8/1
1.5 pts ew THE NEW ONE @6/1
1.5 pts ew POLLY PEACHUM @13/2 (15/2 now available)
1 pt ew DOUBLE SHUFFLE @11/1
Total stakes on day 14 pts
Wednesday preview will be online this evening – hopefully before the Pricewise beast is unleashed this time!
The blog has had to take a lengthy holiday due to work commitments but is back for the big week of the year – the Cheltenham Festival – where it’s had most success over the past couple of years.
I’ll put up some quick previews for each day the night before – starting on Monday.
Here are my early thoughts on some of the selections I am already with over the 4 day period.
I won’t put up a staking plan on these today – merely selections. In many cases, I think there may be more value to be had on the day when prices and place terms are often more enhanced. Generally speaking if a horse is 4/1 or more and ¼ odds 123 or more are available I will probably be playing each way – less than 4/1 and it’ll be win only (there will always be a few exceptions but I will detail those if we come to them)
The ones listed below are the ones I’d be more inclined to be using for angles in multiple bets (doubles, trebles,etc).over the week ahead. A staking plan will be added to the daily blog to analyse profit/loss over the 4 days.
Do always check the place terms if betting now – ¼ odds a place should be widely available next week on most races. Some bookies have already reduced the riskier each way races to 1/5th odds. This makes mathematical sense but it would be no surprise to see them revert next week to be more competitive and lure in more bets.
Onto the week ahead and the early selections….
Ground will hold sway on some of these. At the moment the course is reported as soft but with drying conditions likely over the next few days I’m largely assuming the ground will be good to soft on Tuesday with prospect of it getting better still as the week progresses.
TUESDAY (48 hour declarations due out later today which may cause market movements)
1.30 Supreme Novices A lot of ups and downs in the market here recently with doubt concerning the participation of Yorkhill. Right now it looks like he will be running in Wednesday’s Neptune instead. Willie Mullins/Rich Ricci have won this with favourites Vautour and Douvan for the past two years and Min is a shorter price currently than both of those two. That doesn’t mean he is as good and on what he has achieved he is too short. He is a free going sort who has won his races easily so far this season but beaten nothing of the calibre he meets here. The preliminaries are a concern to connections. I’m much more taken by second fav Altior, who has also displayed keenness in his racing earlier this season but still found plenty of reserves to win his first couple of races. He has winning form on the course – it wasn’t impressive in beating Maputo but that was a very tactical and slow run race. He was much better of a better pace at Kempton over Christmas. I feel he will thrive here off a strong gallop and with the uphill finish and he should be favourite. He probably wouldn’t want to ground too soft but as long as it dries out as expected I’ll be cheering him on
Stablemate Buveur D’Air hasn’t faced any strong opposition this season. He has closely matched form with Altior in bumpers last season but that’s hard to take at face value now. He appeared then as a strong travelling type who didn’t finish of his races quite as well as others and I wonder whether the hill might find him out here. He may prefer the ground to stay soft also Supasundae has been well talked up at preview nights as an each way bet. Henry de Bromhead doesn’t waste his runners here but this one has to improve his jumping and didn’t get home up the hill in the Bumper here last season after running freely early on. At a Dublin preview on Thursday, Gordon Elliott was asked if punters should back his Tombstone each way for this race. He replied ‘no’ which doesn’t augur well for that one’s chances! Selection : ALTIOR ew at 4/1 or better with ¼ odds 123
2.50 Ultima Hcap This seems to be the desired race for Warren Greatrex’s Out Sam who has somehow got into the Festival with a mark of 139. The form of his last comfortable win at Newbury makes that mark stand out as being highly lenient and if 8/1 is available still it’s hard not to have some interest. This race will be completely different – a big field racing against seasoned handicappers rather than novices. However this race often favours both novices and light weights (he should be carrying 10st 2lbs if weights don’t rise) Southfield Theatre would be of interest at a bigger price given his previous Festival record. He hasn’t shown much this season but needs decent ground to show his best. The vibes from Ditcheat are that he is coming back to form but I’m not sure if the ground will have dried up for him sufficiently by Tuesday. Selection; OUT SAM ew at 8/1
3.30 CHAMPION HURDLE A wide open race since the defection of Faugheen and Arctic Fire. Annie Power is too short a price for me considering her original aim was the Mares Hurdle and she has come in as a late replacement for Faugheen’s owner Rich Ricci. She looked a possible runner two years ago but was diverted to the World Hurdle instead. When it looked likely she would run in the Champion she was no shorter than The New One and My Tent or Yours. There’s no evidence she has progressed since so the disparity in odds against those two is a little strange to me. My Tent or Yours probably has the most talent but hasn’t run for a long time and that’s a major concern for a horse who has had a problem settling. Twice he has finished second at the Festival after his early exertions have left him vulnerable to a stronger stayer up the hill. The New One appeals most at current prices. He wasn’t suited by a tactical pace last year and had an interrupted preparation. The year before he was an unlucky loser after being badly hampered early in the race. He is effective on the course though – the way he accelerated up the hill to win the Neptune in 2013 shouldn’t be forgotten. Jumping has always been a bit of an issue with this horse but he can really come up this hill well and this is the easiest opportunity to win a Champion Hurdle he will ever get. (Nice pointer for the form of the stable with Flying Angel winning the Imperial Cup yesterday) Nichols Canyon probably has the best form this year and he could get an easy lead up front (Camping Ground the only other possible front runner by my reckoning). I’m not convinced he acted on the course here last year though and wonder if he needs a flatter track as his form at Aintree afterwards looked much better. At bigger odds, I much prefer Old Guard who has improved a lot this year and has plenty of winning course form. The better the ground is the more I give him a chance. I wouldn’t take his Kempton form literally – wrong track and ground too soft. He holds Sempre Medici and Hargam on earlier Cheltenham form. An issue developed here at the Sandown Park preview last night when trainer Paul Nicholls said his latest piece of work had been ‘dire’. I was going to add him as a second selection but best to wait for further news emanating on his well-being for now Sempre Medici has been put up as an each way bet by several judges at preview meetings. It seems he may be ridden quietly out the back and aiming for a place more than a win. Similar types have been placed before so it wouldn’t be the biggest shock for him to hit the frame Selection: THE NEW ONE ew at 6/1 or better
***Sunday evening update – Old Guard withdrawn from race due to muscle problem***
4.10 Mares Hurdle Team Mullins has had a stranglehold on this race for several years. Vroum Vroum Mag is their short priced favourite this time. She’s won a lot of mares races very easily but for me has yet to do anything to suggest that she is a 160 type of horse as her price suggests – her actual rating is 154 and not that far ahead of anything else in the race ( no course form for her either) I much prefer another Henderson second fav, Polly Peachum, who looks a really solid each way at around 6/1 The more the ground dries out the better for her and she was narrowly beaten in this race last year when rated 155 (now dropped to 149). The ground was far too soft for her when she still managed to beat The Govaness at Sandown (latter an obvious non stayer behind Vroum Vroum Mag at Ascot so wouldn’t be taking that as a collateral form line). She is capable of a higher level than that and is proven over the course There wouldn’t be much to choose between Polly Peachum and Bitofapuzzle on last year’s form but the latter (if she runs) comes here from a couple of disappointing chasing efforts and apparently has had breathing problems. The selection goes off to the paddocks after this race so am very hopeful she can end her jumping career on a high. Selection: POLLY PEACHUM ew at 6/1 with ¼ odds 123
WEDNESDAY
1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle I haven’t seen a better novice hurdler than Yanworth this season. He’s not a great price now but will be shocked if he is beaten such has been his superiority against decent opposition in his last two victories. Earlier in the season his jumping technique was in need of polishing up but the work on that seems to have paid off and I can’t find any negatives. One of the weeks bankers Selection; YANWORTH win
4.50 Fred Winter Hurdle There seem to be a lot of potential plots here in this competitive handicap for 4yo hurdlers. The handicapper might have scuppered the chances of Campeador who was an early talking horse. I attended a preview in Dublin on Thursday where there were subtle hints that Missy Tata was well fancied before Gordon Elliott put her up as his charity bet. The one I most want to be with though is Paul Nicholls’ Diego du Charmil who there has been a strong whisper for over the last couple of weeks and is now fav. This race used to have a strong stat favouring highly rated flat horses but things have changed a little in the last couple of years with Nicholls having success with unexposed French breds like this one. He has supposedly been doing very well on the gallops with much higher rated types and has been saved for this. He could be very well in here – it’s hard to judge him on his French form but his second in this race linked below looks to show a horse that had plenty more to offer….
There are a couple of others at much bigger odds I also have my eye on but will wait until the day for those. For now the selection is DIEGO DU CHARMIL ew 7/1 or better
THURSDAY
Not looking the strongest of the four days for me and will largely leave this until the night before THISTLECRACK has very little negatives in the World Hurdle at 3.30 except a very small concern if the ground has become good by that time. He should be odds on and would be if he were trained by someone like Mullins. In the new Mares Novice Hurdle at 4.50, SMART TALK appears a solid ew proposition. She’s improving with every race and would have won with a lot more in hand last time but for a blunder in the home straight. She could be up against a very classy recruit in short priced favourite Limini but that one does have some questions to answer with her jumping. Her flat race class could carry her through but I’d be surprised if Smart Talk was out of the frame so an each way bet appears far better value
***Sunday evening update. 3rd fav Myska withdrawn from Mares Novice Hurdle. 6/1 really shouldn’t be lasting on Smart Talk now if 1/4 odds 123 are available, An each way bet becomes even better value if you can get those odds and place terms***
FRIDAY
1.30 Triumph Hurdle I believe the strongest trial for this may have been run over this course in January event though it probably didn’t throw up the right result at the time. Who Dares Wins and Clan Des Obeaux finished 4th and 2nd respectively (behind Protek Des Flos) but these two started racing each other a very long way out on some very sticky ground. They paid for those efforts up the hill but in so doing kept themselves at attractive odds. If the ground were soft on Friday I’d be inclined to be with Clan Des Obeaux who has the look of a future high class chaser. However, with conditions likely to be quicker, I have to be with Alan King’s Who Dares Wins. He was too keen early on in that Cheltenham race and had to make the running. He still came out as marginally the best horse in the race as was giving away weight all round. On better ground and with a faster pace to come off, this decent ex-Flat racer should be a much better proposition.
It seems possible that Richard Johnson will ride given comments at Sandown last night. Alan King knows how to win this race and I think he will be the stable’s number one here on better ground over Sceau Royal. Zubayr has to be feared after his win at Kempton recently – the same route taken by recent winners Zarkandar and Soldatino. He appeals more than Ivanovich Gorbatov who didn’t jump well enough last time at Leopardstown and is an awful price on that form Selection; WHO DARES WINS ew 12/1 or better
3.30 Gold Cup The highlight of the Festival and I think Kempton’s King George result is by far the strongest piece of form to go on here. It’s debatable whether Don Cossack would have won that day if he had stayed up at the second last but I do question his effectiveness over this course given his previous record here (3rd and fell) That leaves Vautour and Cue Card. Vautour was outstayed that day but is expected to be fitter this time. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him win but reports of a lack lustre gallop recently aren’t encouraging. The stamina question over further and with an uphill finish to contend with remain. On the plus side it’s hard to forget how he came right at the Festival last year with a spectacular win in the JLT. I’m firmly in the Cue Card camp for this race to pick up a fairytale win and secure a £1 million bonus fund in the process. Given his breeding (dam Wicked Crack as a very good stayer) it was always a surprise to see him display so much speed when he burst onto the Festival scene winning the Bumper in 2010. He was one of the stars to develop from a stellar year of novice hurdlers in 2011 and got another Festival success in the 2013 Ryanair. He is a proven Festival performer.
Cue Card lost his way last year but after a breathing operation has come back a completely revitalised horse. He no longer runs freely out at front and can be settled comfortably off the pace – he now looks the stayer his breeding promised him to be. In Paddy Brennan he has found a new partner and they look to be a match made in heaven. His Kempton win proved he was back at the top of his game but I believe he can be better than that. His jumping there wasn’t as good as it can be and all of his best form has been on left handed courses like Cheltenham I’m taking him to beat off a strong Irish challenger. Don Poli is some way behind these on form but is a bit deceiving as he is the sort who keeps on winning by doing just enough. That is an admirable trait but I think he may lack some pace against others here on what is likely to be decent ground on Friday. In much softer conditions, he would be one to fear more
Selection; CUE CARD ew 5/1 or better
The blog will be back during the week with updates and quick race-by-race synopsis
Thanks for reading and good luck to all over the week ahead with whatever you back
Paul
(comments always appreciated)
Some useful links
To compare odds with all firms I use (though check individual websites as changes don’t always come instantaneously) http://www.oddschecker.com
Despite the watering on Wednesday night , the ground remained fairly quick today and we can expect similar on Friday’s card
The meeting is being dominated by jockey Ryan Moore so far with an unprecedented 8 wins after only 3 days. This does mean that his mounts are becoming shorter odds than they should theoretically be – and therefore bad value. On the plus side that can increase the odds on the others!
Onto Friday’s races:
2.30 Albany Stakes (Group 3 – 2yo fillies – 6 furlongs) A relatively new race at the meeting but it’s already looking better than a Group 3. The Queen Mary is for the speedier fillies and this race is for those who look more like 1,000 Guineas types for next season. Wesley Ward has two runners from the US – Back at The Ranch and Laxfield Road and once again its impossible to know the form of either (the latter won her only start by 11 lengths!) The Ward stable have had most success with their speedsters at this meeting however and over 6 furlongs there has been less success. Illuminate seems to be really liked by the Hannon team but the markets are fully aware of that reputation with a price hovering just above 3/1 It’s a tricky race but I think French raider, Spanish Romance may be the one that’s a little overpriced. Eoghan O’Neill used to train in the UK with great success (Vital Equine 2nd in the 2,000 Guineas) and I doubt he would be sending this one across the Channel unless he thought she was up to the grade. She’s unbeaten in France over 5 furlongs on softish ground – but her pedigree suggests that 6 furlongs and better ground should be all the better for her A small ew bet probably for me if 10/1 is available
(Betfred/Tote offering 1/4 1234 on this race so far while all others pay just 1st 3)
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3.05 King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2 – 3yo colts & geldings – 1ml 4fur) Stravagante was an easy winner of a good handicap on Derby Day and is the early fav here. You would think Ryan Moore had the choice to ride him again though and is on Aidan O’Brien’s Ol’Man River instead. This one has been very disappointing so far this season but the stable and jockey are in such good form this week that anything is possible with him. Festive Fare was backed to beat subsequent Derby winner Golden Horn at Newmarket. Not surprisingly he came up short but he won’t meet anything of the same calibre here. Balios looked a very promising type on his reappearance at HQ also I’m struggling to choose between these 4 and that’s a definite sign not to get involved in this race! No Bet
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3.40 Commonwealth Cup (Group 1 – 3yos – 6 furlongs) A new race to the Royal meeting that’s effectively a 3yo spring championship. The chief protagonists – Limato,Tiggy Wiggy and Hootenanny – were all fantastic 2yos who are out to prove that they have continued their progress into their 3yo season. Hootenanny definitely had a physical advantage over his rivals when he won last year’s Windsor Castle and I expect that to be negated a lot more this year. Tiggy Wiggy has been campaigned at longer trips so far this season. The drop back to 6 furlongs has to be a plus. Limato is a small horse and there is a chance that others can progress past him this season. He looked so good last season and I still he is the one to beat on the form of his reappearance win at this track. He was subsequently beaten at Haydock by Adaay (who reopposes) but the ground was too soft today. Such is his action that fast ground will probably always be necessary for him and he’s got it here. Of the bigger prices, Home of the Brave should be suited by a drop in trip – though whether he will have his own way in front is questionable. French raider Goken isn’t that far off these on 2yo form and ran well from a bad draw against his elders in last season’s Prix de l’Abbaye. 5 furlongs may just suit him better but 33/1 is a little insulting to his chance. The recommendation is Limato with conditions back in his favour. With some firm offering ¼ odds 1234, he’s the one I really struggle to see him finishing out of the frame.
Recomendation
2pts ew Limato 11/2 (ladbrokes paying 1/4 1234)
5/1 with 1/4 1234 is also acceptable with several other firms – do not use firms offering 1/4 123 though as this makes a considerable difference to the value
4.20 Coronation Stakes (Group 1 – 3yo fillies – 1 mile) At the head of the market, I rate Found and Ervedya ahead of Lucida. The problem is fast ground for both of these two and it’s what dissuades me from looking at the race much further. If Found copes with the ground, she is the most likely winner in my eyes though but expect her price to be short with the Ryan Moore/O’Brien factor Arabian Queen won very nicely at Epsom when finding plenty in front and could reach the frame if any of the principals falter on the surface. Those behind Sperry and Yasmeen at York didn’t do much to advertise the form in the Sandringham Hcap on Wednesday
No bet
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5.00 Duke of Edinburgh Stakes Hcap (3yo + 1ml 4fur) A difficult handicap where most of the runners are exposed enough. Igider is one that certainly doesn’t fit that statement. He didn’t beat much last time and has been raised 9lbs but won with such authority that he could still be well in – some of his 3yo form is looking quite decent now. There is a big outsider though I will take a punt on. Peter Hedger is more of a jumping trainer but his Continuum is very effective on the flat, will be much sharper for his seasonal debut and has won off his current mark of 96. That was over slightly further so I’m hoping there is some decent pace in this to let his stamina come into play. He’s closely matched with Dashing Star on a couple of pieces of form last season (including when beaten 6 lengths in this race), but with Tom Marquand’s 5lb claim tomorrow he is arguably handicapped to come out slightly ahead. Despite this he is available at nearly 3 times the price and simply too big. Recommendations: 1pt ew Igider @8/1 (Betfair Sportsbook/Paddy Power both paying 1/4 odds 12345) 0.5pts ew Continuum @40/1 (365,Skybet, Stan James, Ladbrokes – all paying 1/4 odds 1234)
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5.35 Queens Vase (3yo – 2 miles) 3yos don’t get the chance to race at this trip until today so stamina is an unknown for all. Aloft has the highest rating in the field and is a short priced fav – especially as he has yet to race this season (pedigree on dam’s side doesn’t scream of stamina either) Fabricate is a nicely progressive type running for The Queen. Stamina isn’t guaranteed on the sire’s side but his dam was second in the Oaks so there is some encouragement there. He still looked a bit immature when winning his last start at Haydock but is well worth this step up on grade. The one that interest me most though is the second highest rated in the field, Great Glen, whose pedigree has stamina on both sides. He hasn’t won a race as yet but has been racing against some better sorts than he meets here and was only a whisker behind Aloft on his debut last season. With the stamina issue all round it’s another race for small investments though but he’s worth a small dabble at anything 10/1 or above
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Best of luck once more and thanks for reading
Paul
(prices correct at time of publishing 1815 BST 18/06)
It’s Ladies Day on Thursday with the Royal meeting’s centrepiece – the Ascot Gold Cup – holding sway.
The ground was very fast today and so watering is planned for Wednesday night. Just how much water goes on and what it does to the going will have a major impact on some races tomorrow – particularly the showpiece.
On an already tricky card, this doubt about the going makes the scrutiny of each race no easier
2.30 Norfolk Stakes (Group 2 – 2yos – 5 furlongs) On paper this looks a shoot out between the Richard Hannon pair of King of Rooks and Log Out Island. Both these two had the same owner earlier this season but after impressive wins have been sold to Qatar and Dubai interests respectively. King of Rooks’ form of his last win has been advertised this week by the performances of the beaten Steady Pace, Areen and most notably Buratino. It would be dangerous to take that totally at face value though no matter how impressive he was. The winner very much had the run of the race compared to the other three – and there can be no doubt that Buratino is massively improved since. Buratino’s form behind Log Out Island earlier this season is also no real reflection on his prowess now. There was much to like about Log Out Island’s victory though – and the time was very good. In the run up to Ascot last week it seemed clear that team Hannon wanted to keep this pair apart. It was always going to be difficult for Godolphin to run Log Out Island in the Coventry on Tuesday though where they had other interests. Owners must have had the final say in him running here and I think a stiff 5 furlongs is probably right for Log Out Island anyway. I don’t see a lot between this pair but the price on Log Out Island at 11/4 is much the most attractive and he’s my pick to prevail (with his rival close to Evens in comparison) If there’s an outsider lurking it could be James Given’s unbeaten Jazz Legend. This trainer’s charges usually improve for their debuts and he’s by the same sire (Scat Daddy) that Wesley Ward’s US juvenile stars are usually by
– 3.05 Tercentenary Stakes (Group 3 – 3yos – 1ml 2 fur) Roger Charlton used the same Newbury handicap that his star Al Kazeem won as a 3yo to unleash Time Test this season. He certainly looked up to Group 3 standard there and will take some beating. His price is ludicrously low on what he has achieved though. Bocca Bacciata, a filly from Ireland, has probably achieved most and is probably better value. I am worried that she might prefer easier ground though so much of her chance will depend on what watering is done Unlikely I’ll be betting on this heat
– 3.40 Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2 – 3yo fillies – 1ml 4fur) While there are some nice types for the future here, the Irish 1,000 Guineas winner Pleascach is the clear standout.
That win was almost certainly over a trip short of her best. Jim Bolger nominated the Irish Derby as her target after such is the esteem she is held in (described as the best mile and a half filly she has trained) There may have been a bit of salesmanship in those comments as she was subsequently snapped up by Godolphin. I still think she is someway above these and has to be the selection although betting at odds on isn’t really my thing.. Curvy and Pamona are nice types who both seemed a bit of time to find their strides last time – I’m not sure if Ascot with its short straight will be the ideal track for either For a recommendation I’m going to combine her with my fancy in the first race
1.5pts win double (Ladbrokes slightly best as I write)
Log Out Island 11/4
Pleascach 10/11
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4.20 Gold Cup (Group 1 – 4yo+ – 2ml 4fur) The ground situation is crucial here as favourite Forgotten Rules is a doubtful starter if it’s deemed too quick. Until we know if he’s in or out it’s hard to analyse this race. I have backed Vent De Force ante post and think he’ll run a solid race nonetheless. He was hampered behind Mizzou and for me there isn’t much between the pair. Mizzou is a shorter price though and I’m just a little concerned that after connections nominated Sandown as his next target after his Ascot win, he then didn’t turn up for that race
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The last two races on the card are both handicaps with 3yos only and littered with improving types who could be ahead of their handicap marks. A low draw seemed best in today’s Royal Hunt Cup so that must have a slight advantage in the Britannia at 5.00. (Again though watering could have an effect on this) Rotherwick was the only one to try and give ‘handicap good thing’ Jack Hobbs a race on his debut. A drop in trip here maybe not quite what he needs though. Mutarakez got going very late before winning with a bit in hand at Haydock and does looks a Group horse in the making. By not winning too far he has only gone up 6lbs for that win and could still have some room for manoeuvre off a mark of 101. He is top of my shortlist from those at the front of the betting with 10/1 currently available At a big price I am also drawn to Room Key who might have finished closer at Sandown last time but for traffic problems. He was thought highly enough of to start off his season in the 2,000 Guineas but has enough quality about him to make me think his mark of 101 is workable for a horse who still has some improvement in him. It’s the high draw in 27 that may be an issue here but at 40/1 I would be prepared to take a small chance. It’s no surprise on a race as hard as this that many firms offer 5 places and a couple are already ¼ odds 123456!
– The final race is not much easier. A win for Time Test earlier in the day would be a boost for his Newbury victims Dissolution, DutchUncle and Space Age. Of the principals I prefer the progressive King Bolete however who I suspect has some pounds in hand of his current mark of 89. Taper Tantrum looked a winner waiting to happen at Epsom 12 days ago but that’s plenty soon enough to be running again. Of the bigger odds, top weight Rocky Rider catches the eye with the excellent Edward Greatrex claiming 7lb off his back. He’s pedigree is full of stamina and so I can see improvement coming at this trip.33/1 is worth a squeak each way
And so another Festival is over and it’s time for a tally up
It was looking touch and go to get in front over the first 3 days with a few too many placed horses for comfort – but we finished with a flourish on the final day. On The Fringe 8/1 and Killultagh Vic 14/1 (admiittedly might have been hard to get on at this price) made the week a profitable one – one easy winner and one nail-biting photo finish.
I hope a few had kept the faith by this time!
Day 4 had 10.5 pts staked on day of race bets and returned 33.25 pts. There was a 2pt loss on Ante Post bets from the disappointing Blaklion.
So this is now how the figures stand
The initial bank was 50pts
Current Balance is 71.06 – Profit of 21.06pts (42%)
and we still have 5pts of Ante Post bets to run in the Grand National (Monbeg Dude wasnt given too hard a time on very quick ground on Tuesday and probably had quite a nice prep)
The blog will go into hibernation for a few weeks now and be back for the Grand National at the start of April – a summary of the big race at the 5 day stage and some daily write-ups for the 3 day meeting I would hope.
As for next year the Gold Cup already looks a mouthwatering prospect with Coneygree, Don Poli and Vautour. Other races have a distinct Mullins dominated look already. At least Peace and Co proved himself as a viable challenger for the home side in the Champion Hurdle with a win in what looked a very classy Triumph today.
I dont’t do Ante Post bets this early but I think Arctic Fire’s performance to chase home Faugheen in the Champion was overlooked a little – and he would have benefitted from a stronger gallop still. Whether he’ll be able to get that next season I don’t know but Power’s quote of 16/1 seems very big now he has proved himself at the top level – he isn’t that far behind Faugheen on this week’s evidence
Thanks for reading throughout the week and hope you all had a profitable and above all enjoyable experience!
Heavy rain is expected at Cheltenham later tonight which makes life very difficult to do any kind of analysis. I wouldn’t want to be in Tom Segal’s Pricewise shoes this evening when he has to put forward selections not knowing if the ground will stay good or turn to soft tomorrow.
Until we are armed with this knowledge I won’t be making much in the way of selections until tomorrow morning when the blog will be updated but will put some initial thoughts down below
*MORNING UPDATE*
5mm of rain overnight will ease the ground a little but not enough to inconvenience too many – dry at moment but rain could still threaten
Day 3 didn’t provide any winners. Saphir Du Rheu, Ma Filleule and Rawnaq all contributed some place money to the coffers by reaching the frame. 7 pts were returned on day of the race bets (loss of 6.5 pts) and there was a 2 pt profit from the Ante Post portfolio.
A run down of the final day’s card: 1.30 Triumph Hurdle
¼ 123 generally available but in the good old days this was usually ¼ 1234 and a few firms are starting to offer that http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/13:30/winner Peace and Co has looked the star in this division this season and is justifiably favourite. His last win over Karezak came in a very slowly run event and it will be a world away from the fast pace tomorrow. I have a slight niggle that he may not stay as well as others up the final hill in a strongly run event and will be looking to oppose tomorrow at under 3/1. There were similar musings from several Preview nights and I wonder if the bookies will try to get him tomorrow. It could be a case of overdoing it if they do and if he were to get to 4/1 then he might be worth a dabble. If the rain doesn’t have much effect I think stablemate Hargam has a lot going for him. Both he and the favourite have annihilated Starchitect this season and that one did no harm to the form with an excellent run here earlier in the week. It it does turn soft then Hargam’s claims will lessen- he can cope with it but seems a much better horse on a decent surface. Beltor has looked impressive in two starts but his form lines weren’t advertised quite so well in the Fred Winter race. Top Notch looks to be Simon Munir’s second string but could become a much stronger player if the heavens open. The aforementioned Karezak has been beaten by many of these this season but always performed with great credit. I don’t think he’ll mind what ground it is and I really think he is crying out for the strongly run race he’ll get here. He’s the interesting one for me if firms offer a good enough price with 4 places as he is so consistent at this level
*MORNING UPDATE*
Hargam still a big player under current conditions but the rain will bring stamina into play more.The firms offering 1/4 1234 are where I’ll be looking and Karezak will be hard to keep out of the finish for me.
Recommendation
0.75pts ew Karezak @20/1 (365, Stan James – both offering the extra place concession)
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2.05 County Hurdle 2 miles
¼ odds 12345 should be available here and has to be used in such a competitive race http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/14:05/winner Quite a compact field in terms of ratings for this this year and only 12lbs separating them all. It doesn’t quite have the class at the top pf the field as per usual and although the stats favour lower weights I don’t think that might matter as much as they are all so close. Quick Jack is being backed as if he’s the handicap plot that many expect. If the rain doesn’t come my eyes are drawn to top weight Hawk High (handicap winner here last year) and Commissioned (god only knows why they ran him last time when they already knew he hated soft ground!). It’s wait and see for those two and back to the drawing board if the heavens do open
*MORNING UPDATE*
What rain that has come may still be enough to scupper Commissioned’s chances but Hawk High can still operate on Good to Soft (any more rain might be a problem). Lots of Irish raiders who could have been laid out for this – I don’t think Quick Jack is that well handicapped – but Noel Meade’s pair Rich Coast and Waxies Dargle are both of interest at over 20/1
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2.40 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 3ml
All ¼ 123 for now but I would be surprised if someone went an extra place as it much the most competitive of the novice hurdles this week http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/14:40/winner We have Blaklion Ante Post for the blog already here and I doubt he’ll be affected by whatever the rain does. His two Challow Hurdle conquerors both ran well on Wednesday and he’ll be much better suited by this 3 miles. I think he’ll reverse Doncaster form with Caracci Apache now he’s back on this course. His price hasn’t changed much since I put him up and some 14/1 is available – I think that price is very still Value At Risk is the main danger I think and he might prefer a bit of rain. He looks like he’s crying out for this 3 mile trip and his course experience here in January is a positive. No More Heroes doesn’t have the same previous run here and wasn’t right when beaten last time. He really needs the ground to soften up a fair bit for me – but if that does happen he does have the class to be involved. I’m less convinced by Black Hercules’s claims and how they relate to his price here. He looks a real stayer but hasn’t got the strength of form that other Mullins novices have had this week (its that stable connection that makes his price so low for me) Previously Recommended 1pt ew Blaklion 12/1
*MORNING UPDATE*
The overnight rain will be a bonus to Value At Risk and I’ll be backing up the Blaklion bet with him (who also won’t mind the ease in going). No More Heroes may need further rain yet.
Recommendation 1pt ew Value At Risk 11/1 (Paddy Power)
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3.20 Gold Cup 3ml 2fur
The piece de resistance of the whole meeting and quite possibly the trickiest conundrum all week
A few firms already offering ¼ 1234 and I don’t blame them – if ever a non handicap needed it this would be it http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/15:20/winner I don’t think I could really rule out any of the 16 likely runners with great confidence. Silviniaco Conti is the form horse and if this race were run anywhere else might well be my pick. His record at Cheltenham (looked likely to win last season but didn’t get home) is a negative and will surely have me looking elsewhere for a pick. Quite what to pick is ground reliant though and for tomorrow! Previous good Festival or form on the course form is a must for me so ones I will likely be ruling out as well as the fav are Carlingford Lough and Djakadam, who both didn’t shine here last season
*MORNING UPDATE*
We will have a proper stamina test here with that extra bit of rain and Coneygree, Many Clouds and Silviniaco Conti all wanting to be prominent. I’d love to see Coneygree the novice do well but Gloria Victis and Lanzarote both paid the ultimate price for jumping into the top level too early in their chasing careers – above all I just hope he comes back safe! His jumping will put others under pressure early though. I’d be looking for something with proven course form that stays very well.
Holywell fits that bill and always comes to peak form at the Festival where he is 2/2. It’s no negative that he is ridden by Richie McLernon (rather than AP McCoy who rode him in both of those victories). Jumping is a slight concern at this high level and I think he could be a drifter in the market today. 12/1 at the moment won’t drag me in but if he goes 16/1 with a firm offering 1234 I think I’ll bet.
Last years winner Lord Windermere won’t want too much extra rain but has also a great Festival record and has become too big at 20/1. I thought he ran a great trial last time at Leopardstown before condition told and will have be trained to be at his peak for this again.
Smad Place is the other at a big price. On this season’s form he’s up against it but he has consistently performed well at Grade 1 events at the festival and I expect him to be staying on at the finish.
Recommendations
0.5pts ew each
Lord Windermere 20/1
Smad Place 33/1
both with Skybet offering 1/4 1234
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4.00 Foxhunters 3ml 2fur
¼ 1234 offered by some here – others just first 3 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/16:00/winner You really need a good knowledge of the Point to Point scene to have an opinion here – and I’m lacking a bit in that department. Unlikely I’ll be having any substantial bets here. There will be a big difference in the abilities of the amateur jockeys competing and that can’t be ignored . Salsify is a previous winner on the comeback trail from injury. On The Fringe has been placed in this but slightly disappointing given his reputation on both occasion. Paint The Clouds looks bets of the home trained team and has a previous course win albeit over hurdles.All meet the criteria of having a top Amateur on board Carsonstown Boy was second last year (On The Fringe 3rd) so is interesting at bigger prices. From a jockey perspective I can’t ignore Aerial either who was a decent 150+ horse when trained by Paul Nicholls and has won his last two Points. Any further PTP insight is greatly appreciated here though!
*MORNING UPDATE*
The fact they have form in this race, have good jockeys and the extra place concession all prompt me to these two each way as I’ll be amazed if neither hit a place at very least
Recommendations
1pt ew On The Fringe 8/1
0.5pts ew Carsonstown Boy 14/1 (unfortunately Pricewise took the 20s last night)
Both fairly widely avaialble but it must be with one of the firms offering 1/4 1234
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Onto the two last handicaps – not races to be chasing losses on for sure 4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle 2ml 4fur http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/16:40/winner A Mullins trained /Gigginstown owned unexposed French import has won this twice in recent years (Don Poli and Sir Des Champs). Roi Des Francs has the same profile again and so is the obvious one to leap out – but not an attractive price as a result. Killultagh Vic is interesting from the same stable off what could be a lenient mark
*MORNING UPDATE*
I think Killultagh Vic’s mark of 135 could be about 6-7lb les than it really should be and for that will be having an interest with Ladbrokes currently going well above the Betfair price
Recommendation
1pt ew Killultagh Vic 14/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 12345)
(This price disappeared within a few minutes of posting unfortunately but 12/1 still worth a bet if available)
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5.15 AP Mc Coy Grand Annual Chase 2ml http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/17:15/winner This year named in honour of the retiring champion jockey. And that’s why his mount Ned Buntline is so short with bookies fearful of a plunge and a successful Festival send off. I’m going to pass on this race for now and has have far too many still on the shortlist
NO BET
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Thanks for reading – and please check in tomorrow morning when hopefully we’ll know just what the forecast rain has done
A decent day for the blog today with Ante Post selection Windsor Park winning (advised at 12/1) and Southfield Theatre running a good second (advised 20/1) after making a bad mistake 4 out. If team Mullins had had their way and sent Don Poli to the 4 miler things could have been even better!
Day 2’s day of the race bets had no draws so there was a 6.5 pt loss there but the Ante Post picks returned 23 pts from 6 pts staked
Onto Day 3: 1.30 JLT Novices Chase 2ml 4fur
Generally ¼ odds 123 available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/13:30/winner Only 4 runnings of the race doesn’t give us much data for stats. Ptit Zig has been my long term fancy but it’s never ideal to come into a race such as this with a fall on the last start. That could have been a blessing in disguise as it saved him a hard race against some very useful types. He still remains the selection but is a bit too short a price to bet given that last blip I certainly prefer him to Vautour whose priced is based on his hurdling form and the Mullins factor than what he has actually done over fences this season. Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido are closely matched this season and should be involved at the business end but the lack of course experience for the former is a slight negative. Splash of Ginge proved he doesn’t operate on right handed tracks last time and will be much more at home again back here now. Nigel Twiston Davies has had big priced placed horses in this before and could well hit the frame again here at big odds
Selections; Ptit Zig (but No Bet), Splash of Ginge ew
*MORNING UPDATE*
The Tullow Tank’s defection leaves an eight runner field – hopefully no more come out or that 1/4 123 will revert to first two. Ptit Zig has gotten too big now at 5/1 with Paddy Power and rates a bet at that price (especuilly after reading in P Nicholls column on Betfair how many fences he has jumped at home since his last fall). Splash of Ginge also a bit big for me at 22/1
Edeymi’s eyecatching run at Musselburgh has fooled no one and firms chalk him up at too low a price based on what they think was being hidden. Last years close fourth Trustan Times gets similar condition again and could be involved again with ground conditions back in his favour My eye is mainly drawn to a horse I have followed for some time and is totally unexposed at this trip – Brother Brian. Stamina is unproven but he’s always looked like he needs further and his 3 runs over the course have all been ones for the notebook. Hughie Morrison has kept him off the track since a good run against much higher rated pair Rock on Ruby and Volnay De Thaix in December to preserve his mark. Softer ground in the interim probably wouldn’t have suited either This is still a race where 5yos have a distinct disadvantage – a big negative for Dawalan especially as he has such a big weight. Big Easy is consistent in this grade and should again run well – although he continues to have his mark raised without winning. A strong pace will suit and can see him having place claims. Unique De Cotte won well at Ascot last time despite hardly hitting one hurdle right. I can’t help but think that flaw will be exposed more in the stronger pace and better ground he will encounter here. Recommendation 1pt ew Brother Brian @12/1 (365, Stan James , Betfair Sportsbook all paying 5 places)
*MORNING UPDATE*
Brother Brian a victim of Pricewise so all 12/1 sadly now departed. 11/1 still available with 5 places on offer
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2.40 Ryanair Chase 2ml 5fur
1/4 odds 123 should be widely available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/14:40/winner Not a beloved race of mine for picking winners in but that has to break one year. A common theme amongst winners is that they were proven over 3 miles. The Irish seem very bullish about Don Cossack’s chances this year and he has form over further. I’m not sure if he would have beaten Champgane Fever or not last time when that rival fell. It’s more of a worry that on his sole venture to the course he himself fell. Johns Spirit was going as well as anything 3 out before stamina kicked in in the King George at Kempton over Christmas. He has some very good course form here to make him a contender but all of that form is on Cheltenham’s Old Course which is used earlier in the season – his New Course form (as he races over here is less impressive as stamina does become more of an issue. It does appear strange that Balder Succes is a bigger price than Ma Filleule after he beat her last time but the latter is the selection. Balder Succes does seem to thrive in smaller fields and his record of non completions at Cheltenham is a problem. He is also unproven over further Ma Filleule on the other hand is proven at 3 miles and she really came to hand at this time last year. It was expected that she would improve a lot for last run and connections have talked her up very confidently since.
She is one of the best jumpers of a fence around (witness her win over Aintree’s National fences last season) and I am struggling to see her out of the frame Recommendation 1.5 pts ew Ma Filleule @5/1 (general)
*MORNING UPDATE*
6/1 is available currently on Ma Filleule with Hills and Boyles but as she is trading less on Betfair don’t expect that price to hold for long
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3.20 World Hurdle 3ml
1/4 odds 123 generally available but a few firms offering a very decent 1/4 1234 http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/15:20/winner
The blog is already covered for this with our Ante Post pick Saphir Du Rheu taken at 8/1 and now disputing favouritism around 5/1.
I still make him the one to beat (he does have marginally the highest official rating in the field) with stablemate Zarkandar the principal threat. Cole Harden is interesting at bigger prices now that he is back on decent ground and has had a win op since his last run Previously recommended 2pts ew Saphir Du Rheu @8/1
*MORNING UPDATE*
Ladbrokes offering 1/4 1234 and 7/1 on both Saphir Du Rheu and Zarkandar as I speak – thats a full point bigger than Betfair and for anyone who can bet with them I’d advise to back both each way if you can get on with those terms
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4.00 2ml 5fur Hcap
Another competitive handicap- afew firms now offering an extra 5th place – hopefully more will follow http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/16:00/winner The two at the top of the weights, Hunt Ball and Rajdhani Express have performed well in higher grades and have been waiting for this better ground. Hunt Ball hasn’t been given much help by the handicapper though and actually meets Rajdhani Express on 6lb worse terms (including riders claim) for 2.5 lengths beating in Dynaste’s Ryanair Chase last year. Rajdhani Express is a previous Festival winner and his mark has dropped a little since an eyecatching run at Kempton last time. 3 miles on soft ground was too much for him but nothing was going as well up to the home straight and as long as that effort hasn’t taken it’s toll I see him as a big player here.
Attaglance is another with good festival form and must be considered – he has a 4lb higher mark than when narrowly touched off in the novices handicap last year. That rise in weights is just enough for me to hold back on him – he’s getting a bit too old to be progressing now. The other for my shortlist is Irish novice Rawnaq who isn’t harshly treated off 141. He ran a great race in the Greatwood Hurdle here in 2013 and appears to need decent ground. Experience could be an issue but novices have a reasonable record in this race so it isn’t such a negative. Buywise is perfectly capable of winning a contest like this but invariably makes a bad error in his races – it could prove costly again Bookies are probably running a bit scared of offering a high price on David Pipe’s Monetaire given how easily the trainer won this race last year with Ballynagour Recommendations 1pt ew Rajdhani Express @12/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook both paying 5 places) 0.5pts ew Rawnaq @25/1 (365, Paddy Power)
*MORNING UPDATE*
12/1 still vavailable for Rajdhani Express although he is slightly less right now on the Exchanges
Again a few offering an extra place and maybe more will follow Amateur riders take charge here and experience in the saddle counts for a lot. I would be against any rider who is claiming weight. I got a little excited at the 5 day entries when seeing Vintage Star had Nina Carberry jocked up. He’s one who really needs decent ground and was hinting at a form revival last time out now his mark is dropping. Alas today I see that Nina has been required elsewhere and so my interest has waned a bit. Champagne James has only had 3 chase starts and no experience at this distance. He is unexposed and looks a possible plot for this race from the Walsh family. Gold Bullet has a similar looking profile and a top amateur jockey on board Masters Hill once had Gold Cup aspirations from Colin Tizzard but has started to rediscover his potential this season. He’s high enough in the weights but there’s still enough scope in his mark there to see him be a player. The selection is another novice chaser who has crept in at the bottom of the weights. The Ould Lad was considered good enough to contest todays RSA Chase but was presumably pulled out as he got in this race. He just needed the run last time but had an upward profile previously and ran well on this course in December. Recommendation 0.75 pts ew The Ould Lad @16/1 (ladbrokes, Hills, BetVictor)
This price already under attack on Betfair so not sure it will hold out for long!
*MORNING UPDATE*
The price has held out on the selection despite dipping under 16/1 on Betfair last night – probably because Pricewise went elsewhere. He styas firm at that price on Betfair for now
Day 1 was largely dominated by team Mullins (and his two jockeys Ruby Walsh and Paul Townend – much to my chagrin in the last – riding 5 of the days 7 winners)
The ante post selections in the blog today seemed to be too fond of 4th place scuppering the place angles of their respective bets.
It was left to the two selections in the last to return some investments and finish 2nd and 3rd.
The ground looked pretty quick today and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they watered this evening to prevent it getting too fast.
Assuming Best Odds Guaranteed on Generous Ransom who returned at 8/1 there were 9 pts staked on Tuesday’s day of race markets and 8.81 pts returned.
10 pts were lost on Ante Post wagers today but there are some nice positions to run on tomorrows cards which I will go through now:
1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle 2ml 5fur
Generally ¼ odds 123 available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/13:30/winner Surprisingly this race has thrown up some future Champion Hurdle stars in the past despite being over a trip much further. The last two winners, Faugheen and The New One, being ideal cases in point. It’s usually a competitive affair and despite having an open feel to it it’s a bit of a shock to see only a field of 10 lining up – 7 of which are officially rated within 9 lbs of one another. It’s a race I have already covered Ante Post and have a good position on having put up Windsor Park at 12/1 a few weeks ago – he’s now around 5/1. I do think his form behind Nichols Canyon is the strongest coming into this and that he should be the likelier one of the two to benefit from the better ground and the longer trip. I don’t think there’s any value left in him at current odds but am very happy with the position I have on this race. Parlour Games has arguably the strongest form of the English but stats followers will be well aware that Challow Hurdle winners have a bad record in this. I also have a feeling he may need softer ground to be most effective. – a remark I could also give to Outlander who has no form on such a surface At bigger odds, Ordo Ab Chao is the most appealing outsider (14/1 best with Paddy Power). He won what looked quite a strong novice event at the course in January and has been a little overlooked in the betting for me.
Verdict
No Bet for now at current odds Previously advised 1pt ew Windsor Park 12/1
Another race where the blog has a strong Ante Post position, having tipped Southfield Theatre at 20/1 in January. He’s now around 6/1 and fits the stats perfectly as a 7yo – the age that has dominated this contest in recent years. Only 3 horses aged under 7 have triumphed since the late 1970s, and one of them was a 5yo and getting a much bigger weight concession than is received by them now. This is too big a negative for me to support the current favourite Don Poli, The Young Master, Wounded Warrior and Adriana des Mottes.(of these I do think Wounded Warrior could be one to follow in coming seasons and may be a touch overpriced but is more one for softer ground) Kings Palace won’t have to worry about vying for the lead with Coneygree any more now that one has been rerouted to the Gold Cup. This will help his cause but it’s hard to forget how disappointing he was at last year’s Festival when strongly fancied for the Albert Bartlett hurdle. If In Doubt did amazingly well to win a big handicap comfortably at Doncaster considering his jumping was so bad. It shows he must have an engine but this is a much harder course to jump around and it’s a bit of a surprise to see him turning up for this race. I still think Southfield Theatre is the one to be with and is hard to see out of the frame given a clear round on ground that will suit him so well. Having already got a very good price on him I don’t see the need to reinvest more but wouldn’t put anyone off supporting him with Paddy Power currently offering a tasty 15/2. Paul Nicholls has been putting him forward as one of his strongest chances of the week at recent Preview nights So for blog purposes it’s No BET but for anyone not already on the selection I wouldn’t pass him by
Previously advised
1pt ew Southfield Theatre 20/1
1pt ew Champagne West 16/1 (NR and therefore a losing bet)
2.40 Coral Cup 2ml 5fur
Many firms offering ¼ odds 12345 and you really need that in this highly tricky handicap http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/14:40/winner It’s hard to spot anything that looks well ahead of the handicapper. The obvious exception could be Paul Nicholls’ French import Aux Ptits Soins but its impossible to tell if his mark of 139 is a fair reflection of his form or not. It’s certainly a tough baptism to throw the horse into a race like this on his British debut. I’m going for two small each way investments in the race. I used to think 5yos had a disadvantage in this race but 3 have now won in the last 10 years so am less dissuaded. Baradari performed well at the Festival this year and looked an improved performer when tackling a longer trip last time. Venetia Williams must always be respected in any Cheltenham handicap and at 20/1 is worth a poke. It’s anyone guess whether a Tony Martin runner is fancied or not – the market will surely tell us tomorrow if it is. Marinero had the misfortune to come up against Douvan earlier in the season but creeps in near the bottom of the weights here and with a decent 5lb claimer on board. There’s always a good chance that anything sired by Presenting will be a better horse on good ground and that’s what sways me in his direction here as he is unexposed under the conditions tomorrow Recommendations 0.5pts ew each Baradari 18/1 Skybet ¼ odds 12345 (16/1 still acceptable as long as 5 places offered) Marinero 16/1 Skybet, Bet Victor, Hills, Paddy Power – all offering a 5th place
*MORNING UPDATE*
An extra selection here which somehow eluded me last night. Dell’Arca was favourite for this race last year and was bang there at the last before finishing 5th. He is on a slightly higher mark but this year’s renewal doesnt look quite as strong in my mind. While he operates on soft ground his best form is at this track and on good ground which he gets here. I’m happy to ignore his last run at Taunton where he kept to the inner and the first two raced very wide – almost certainly he was on much worse ground.
Corals have upped the place game by offering 1/4 123456 and with that extra place thats where we will go for this one
Recommendation
0.75pts ew Dell’Arca 22/1 (Corals 1/4 odds 123456) – (25/1 is available for 1st 5 and acceptable also)
3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase 2ml Winston Churchill once said that Russia was ‘ a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma’ but I think that could easily apply to this race as well this year. Sprinter Sacre is the best 2 mile chaser of the recent era but has only raced once since a heart problem was diagnosed. It’s just so impossible to gauge how good he still is and that makes it so difficult to back him or lay him. I do worry about him coming up the hill with all of the problems he has had Sire De Grugy has also had injury issues but looked back to himself when winning at Chepstow last time. He won this race last year when everyone wanted to lay him as it was always known this was not his favourite course. It was a weaker race than this year though and this is a stiffer test Dodging Bullets is this year’s form horse and like so many of Dubawi’s stock has improved with age. The issue with him is how his form in March has not matched up to earlier in the season in previous years. Champagne Fever doesn’t seem to have a trip right now. His novice form last season doesn’t look quite strong enough for me and he has since been campaigned over as far as 3 miles. Mr Mole is a reformed character this season having been the bad boy of jump racing in his younger days. He was presented with a win at Newbury after Sire De Grugy’s fall but won well enough to suggest he could have beaten him anyway. Special Tiara is a fantastic jumping front runner who will ensure a proper pace here but may just be a little below this class when a stiff finish is involved. His presence in the race should help the one who I think is the best outsider Simply Ned – a horse who desperately needs a sound surface to show his best. Like most of Nicky Richards’ he a slow developer but has a consistently upward profile through his carrer and is a fluent jumper. He will be sitting out the back in this race and picking up the pieces but I can see him running into the frame at decent odds. 20/1 is available and worth a small each way investment
Recommendation 0.5pts ew Simply Ned 20/1 (Betfred/Totesport)
4.00 Cross Country Chase 3ml 7fur ¼ odds 123 generally available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/16:00/winner Not run over conventional fences this race this spectacle is nice to watch but doesn’t tempt me for punting purposes. Experience over the course is usually a must but most of the field have that It’s a definite NO Bet race for me
4.40 Fred Winter Hcap Hurdle 2ml
Generally ¼ odds 1234 offered here though it would be a surprise if a few didn’t offer 5 places come the day http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/16:40/winner A great race for the blog last year selecting a 40/1 winner and a 20/1 place. Both were based on the previous record of decent flat performers in the race. Last year’s third Orgilgo Bay had the highest flat rating in the field at 103 and that stat has produced 3 winners in the past 10years. Having had only the requisite 3 previous runs to gain a handicap mark has produced 70% of the winners in the same period. We don’t have anything that has reached a rating of 90+ on the Flat competing this year but 6 horses have achieved ratings in excess of 80; Dai Bando, Arabian Revolution, Starchitect, Zarib, Mr Gallivanter and Sebastien Beach. Of these Arabian Revolution and Zarib have had just the three runs and they are the two for my shortlist. Arabian Revolution was unlucky to come up against leading Triumph Hurdle contender Beltor on his second run and it was no disgrace for him to lose there when conceding 7lbs. Sebastien Beach was over 4 lengths back in 3rd that day and reopposes on only 1 lb better terms. John Ferguson’s charge has won well at Huntingdon since and the form has been boosted by the third in that race since (jockey Noel Fehily commented after the race that he had the class to run in Triumph). His hurdling form is all on soft ground but better going shouldn’t be a problem as has won on good ground on the flat. The booking of Barry Geraghty to ride is an obvious bonus.
Zarib also came up against a leading Triumph contender at Cheltenham in January when comfortably disposed of by Peace and Co. That was a very false run race and so hard to interpret the form literally. He won a very weak race easily since. I have the utmost respect for his up and coming trainer Dan Skelton and he doesn’t appear harshly handicapped on a mark of 133. Of the two marginal preference goes to Arabian Revolution however as I see his form a little stronger and he appeals as a slightly stronger stayer Recommendation 1pt ew Arabian Revolution 10/1 (general)
*MORNING UPDATE*
Alas only Racebets who I do not use have come up with 5 places so far. If anyone else does come up with 4 places and 12/1 Zarib I may well add him to the portfolio but nothing done for now
5.15 Champion Bumper 2ml
Look for a few firms offering 4 places here http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/17:15/winner A breeding ground for future Festival winners for sure this is often a race to get stung on. If I backed everything in the field that I heard was ‘best in the stable’ I could easily have 7 or 8 running for me. I think Supasundae’s Ascot win is the best piece of UK bumper form on show here (Yanworth second) but he has since been sold to Henry de Bromhead’s stable and now represents Ireland. General Principle and Wait For me are two I have heard talked up a lot recently and the Wille Mullins stable is once again represented en masse. I heard very good things about Stone Hard at the beginning of the season and he would be my pick if pushed. He doesn’t appear to be the stable first string on jockey bookings but that doesn’t always work out in this event and Paul Townend has already had 2 winners today so is hardly a disadvantage. What might find him out would be quicker ground. He’s more of a hopeful selection and for the purposes of recommendations this remains a NO Bet race
Thanks for reading once again
Comments welcome as always and good luck
The waiting is over and Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival is upon us.
As usual for this meeting there will be special offers in abundance. Enhanced place terms are always worth looking out for and there will be some daily offers that I will highlight whenever possible this week.
Unfortunately there will also be a plethora of crazy enhanced prices to offer for setting up new accounts but I won’t be looking out for any of those. They usually have a very low maximum bet acceptance and are just marketing gimmicks. Useful only if you have the chance to open an account in the name of your grandmother or dog!
Also make sure to check when taking a price for ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ (available with the majority of firms) so that if the SP does end up bigger you won’t lose out
The going at time of writing is good to soft with good in places. With some light rain forecast later today but a drying day tomorrow we hopefully shouldn’t see too much difference this time tomorrow.
Onto the racing:
1.30 Supreme Novice Hurdle 2ml
¼ 123 odds a place generally available for the opening race of the meeting.
Odds available here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/13:30/winner
Some offers of note that should be worth much consideration for those having accounts with these firms: http://www.paddypower.com ; We will refund all losing single stakes on the Supreme Novices Hurdle as a free bet if Douvan wins (up to £50) http://www.willhill.com : ‘Place a bet of up to £25 on the first race of the festival, and if your win or each way bet doesn’t come in, we’ll give you your money back as a free bet!’ This doesn’t have quite the competitive look to it that it usually has with two standout contenders at the top of the market frightening off all but 10 opponents. Douvan heads the market for Ireland based on two very easy wins over 2 miles this season. It is a bit questionable what he has backed and this will be far his sternest test to date. He could be another Willie Mullins world beater but his short price is largely based on hype and doesn’t represent great value to me. L’Ami Serge is next up and for me has slightly stronger credentials. His last two wins were on soft ground in small fields but his first win this season at Newbury is perhaps more telling – an easy win over Kilcooley has been advertised greatly by the runner up since. He doesn’t seem the most fluent jumper at times but always looks to have loads left in the tank and is the one to beat for me in this race. (A 66 day break since his last run isn’t ideal in terms of stats for race winners of this but we know he can perform well fresh) Jollyalan is the other in the field with a handicap rating over 150 but has even more jumping concerns at this level and still looks a bit of a work in progress judged on his latest defeat at Sandown. Qewy will also have some support and won very nicely at Newbury last time. It’s a while since a good ex flat racer won this event but going back in time many of those that did (French Ballerina, Flown, Harry Hastings, Shadow Leader) were all proven performers at 12 furlongs or more. It’s a little offputting for me that Qewy has only proved himself at lesser trips and I wonder if Aintree might have been a better target for him with stamina in mind. The uphill finish here could be his undoing. Some Plan also gets a mention at a big price. He looks a horse for the future but ran his rivals into the ground from the front last time. He is likely to ensure a strong pace here which will have many in trouble. I can see him having improved enough to reverse earlier season form with Seedling but he may still be setting up the race for others in the home straight. Verdict: I was considering a bet on L’Ami Serge a couple of weeks ago when he was around 9/2 but decided to wait until it became non runner no bet when I thought there was a good chance he would be the same price or possibly better. That plan has gone a little awry and at time of writing 7/2 is best available which is just under the price I would have wanted to recommend.
He is the selection for the race but is not a bet recommendation for now . (One to include in ew multiples for the day)
*MORNING UPDATE*
Ground remains unchanged at Good to Soft with Good in places overnight. The forecast is for a dry and suny day so it could well be all Good by the time of racing.
I will be having a play on LAmi Serge if 4/1 or higher becomes available but for now it it isn’t. It all depends on whether the money comes down for Douvan from Ireland if his price goes out or not.
2.05 Arkle Trophy 2ml
¼ odds 123 generally available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/14:05/winner
Another offer to take note of here from Paddy Power: ‘We will refund all losing single stakes on the Arkle Chase as a free bet if Un De Sceaux wins.’ (£50 max refund) Un De Sceaux is a short priced favourite for the Irish and could well be in a different league to his rivals here. He will undoubtedly blast off from the front from the start (1980 the last time we had an all the way winner) and very hard to envisage anything having the pace to live with him. There isn’t really another rival left in the declarations who looks a likely front runner anyway (Clarcam tried it last time and paid for the effort so will probably be held back more on this occasion) There are enough negatives to put me off him though. Not having ever run at the track and having no experience of this festival occasion. For a horse who both Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty have said ‘ they haven’t felt in control of’ during parts of his previous wins – the chances of the occasion getting to him have to be considered. He’s a low quick jumper (fell on his first start this season) and that style may encounter problems at this undulating course. If he can surmount these issues he most likely wins – and wins easily but at odds on (8/11 currently best on offer) that’s too much to risk I’ve already selected Vibrato Valtat Ante Post for this and am happy to sit with that position taken at a bigger price than is available now. He won’t be vying for the lead early and will be ridden to pick up the pieces from the back. I think he’s improved since beating Three Kingdoms at Kempton and while that rival looks a big price in comparison I would be concerned that his jumping may not be quite good enough here. Court Minstrel gets a mention as a big outsider who really needs good ground to be most effective. We can forget his last run because of that and he’s another ‘stalker’ who will be held up at the back. At the moment this a no bet race for me at current odds though Vibrato Valtat gets the pick for the each way multiples. Previous recommendations 2pts ew Vibrato Valtat 7/1 1pt ew double Vibrato Valtat 6/1 + Jezki 6/1 (Champion Hurdle)
*MORNING UPDATE*
No extra bets for me but if I could get on with them Ladbrokes’s 11/8 currently offered on Clarcam to beat Josses Hill would be interesting. The latter has some big jumping problems to overcome
2.40 3 mile hcap chase
Generally ¼ odds 1234 but take note that some firms are dangling a carrot of offering 5 places. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/14:40/winner Low weighted horses used to be ones to look out for here with the advantage on the side of those carrying less than 11 stone. That theory didn’t work last year though with Holywell carrying 11st 6lbs to victory and two others placing from 11st+. Being aged 11 or more was another big negative but that doesn’t affect many this year.. Novices have a good record in recent years and much of this augurs well for Ned Stark who looked a chaser going places when winning at Wetherby last time. Alan King won this with a novice (Fork Lightning) in 2004 and Bensalem for him looked like doing the same until falling in 2010 (before making up for that the following year!) The Druids Nephew appeals as the main danger with Barry Geraghty back onboard – a combination that looked a little unlucky here against Gold Cup bound Sam Winner in November. That form still makes him look as if he could have a few pounds in hand of his mark of 146. Despite him being touted for the Grand National I very much doubt that this is a prep race and that this has been his main target this season. In contrast this should really be a prep race for Monbeg Dude who I have already tipped up for the Grand National. With the weights now out he can still be competitive here but connections will want to be saving something back for Aintree or else he could have been very interesting at 25/1 (still place potential though) Pendra has seen support in recent days and may do so still with AP McCoy on board but he isn’t for me. He’s been well supported to win handicaps at the Festival for the last two seasons off lower marks but hasn’t delivered and has a stamina question mark at this trip. Barrakilla has a nice weight with 10st 7lbs but is also unproven over 3 miles. Gallant Oscar is of most interest of the lower weights but with all of his form on softer ground there is a question mark over him on this quicker surface
. Recommendation: 1pt ew Ned Stark 8/1 (BetVictor/Betfair Sportsbook who both offer 5 places)
*MORNING UPDATE*
9/1 currently available on Ned Stark with BetVictor (level with Betfair Exchange price)
3.20 Champion Hurdle 2ml
The centrepiece of the first day and as long as the 8 declared runners are still there at the start it’s generally ¼ odds 123 on offer http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/15:20/winner Again we have a previous ante post recommendation running here with Jezki taken at bigger odds than are now available. With ground conditions likely to suit I would expect him to reverse earlier season form with Hurricane Fly. Faugheen will be taking on better class opponents than he has routed so far this season but could easily be up to the task. It’s just a little niggle about his jumping that makes me think his current price of 5/4 best is a tad too short. Expect that to shorten or lengthen depending on what happens to Douvan and Un De Sceaux earlier in the day. The New One is the other member of the Champion Hurdle triumvirate but his jumping has long had a question mark at the top level and is a worry again. It’ll be a big shock for me if the winner comes from outside these main three and the biggest conundrum here will be how the race is run. There’s no pacemaker in the field so Faugheen could be allowed to dictate the fractions. Jezki’s owner also has Kitten Rock in the race – he should be there on his own merit but could he be sacrificed to apply some pace and not let Faugheen have it all his own way? For now it’s a no bet race at current odds for me with the Ante Post interest already on board Previously recommended 2pts ew Jezki 6/1
Nothing to add this morning for this race
4.00 Mares Hurdle 2ml 4fur
Generally ¼ 123 (beware a few offering 1/5th) http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/16:00/winner Quevega won this 4 times in a row and now team Mullins look set to monopolise the event once more with an arguably better mare – Annie Power – a short price favourite. The stable also supplied last years 2nd Glens Melody but there was no contest when these two met as novices and Annie ran out a very easy 12 length winner. The problem is that Annie Power hasn’t run yet this season and her preparation has had some problems according to reports – or else she may well have been running in the World Hurdle instead. It’s quite likely that she won’t have to be 100% to win this but while she is much the likeliest winner her odds are quite prohibitive given those little doubts about her wellbeing this year.. Polly Peachum is highest rated of the home contingent and does have a rating 5lb higher than Glens Melody. She hasn’t been seen since pulling up at Kempton – a run largely best ignored as Caroles Spirit slipped the field and got too far clear under an inspired Daryl Jacob ride giving the others and impossible task to catch her. That 106 day absence is a slight concern although it seems likely that she has been waiting for better ground. Verdict.
I cant back Annie Power but wouldn’t want to back against her either. Betting without the favourite would be the main market of interest for me and so will look for more firms to offer that tomorrow before making any judgement
*MORNING UPDATE*
Betfred/Totesports 4/1 (1/4 123) for Polly Peachum in their betting without Annie Power looking the most attractive option this morning. Barry Geraghty seemed qiuite optimistic about here chances in his regular At The Races blog last night
4.40 National Hunt Chase 4 miles
¼ odds 123 with most firms http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/16:40/winner There are some unhappy Ante Post backers around here after Very Wood became a runner today after being announced as a runner in the RSA Chase at the end of last week (and Ante Post fav Wounded Warrior swapping with him) Very Wood does have a lot to recommend him having won at the Festival as a novice hurdler last season when looking a real stayer. Stamina for 4 miles is unproven but that applies to virtually the whole field. He appeals as the likeliest winner but I wouldn’t feel confident enough to put him up as a bet at around 7/2. If any firm did offer 4 places on this tomorrow I might be looking more for a longer priced outsider each way. Vivaldi Collonges (inexperienced but appears to need an extreme distance and decent ground) and Theatre Queen (quirky but extraordinary performance last time considering she stood still at the start ) would be two such to consider For now it’s a NO BET race
*MORNING UPDATE*
With some firms now offering 4 places I’m tempted by a small bet here.
Vivaldi Colonges isn’t a stats pick – he’s probably too young and not enough chasing experience for that. But I just feel the distance and going here are going to be right up his street and he has an excellent pilot aboard in Will Biddick.
5.15 2ml 4fur Novices Hcap Chase
The finale is generally ¼ 1234 but again look out for a few offering that extra place. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/17:15/winner I’ve had Thomas Crapper in mind for this race for some time and he has sneaked in with a very low weight after some inspired placing over inadequate trip and bad ground to get him back to a mark of 134 from 138. Cheltenham, decent ground and 20 furlongs all seems to be his optimum conditions and his form against current RSA fav Don Poli at the Festival last year looks all the better now..
I’m hardly being imaginative in nominating Generous Ransom as his main danger. Nick Gifford has looked after this one carefully throughout his career and he came of age at Cheltenham last time when looking the winner a long way out. The family all have a marked appreciation for better ground so it was no surprise to see him wilt a little on the run in there. I expect more improvement than the 8 lb raise the handicapper has given him back on better going – and expect him to confirm the form with third home Irish Cavalier Recommendations 1.5 pts ew each Thomas Crapper 15/2 Generous Ransom 7/1 Both with BetVictor and Betfair Sportsbook who offer 5 places
*MORNING UPDATE*
Generous Ransom now a mouthwatering 10/1 with BetVictor and with 5 places. That’s a point higher than Betfair Exchange who are only 9/1 right now (same price as their Sportsbook who also offer the 5th place option)
The blog will get some updates each morning if anything catches my eye on the day of the race.
Day 2’s thoughts will appear tomorrow evening – hopefully in advance of Pricewise selections – and will continue in the same way for Day 3 and 4.
Many thanks for reading and good luck this week with whatever you end up backing
Comments are always most welcome
thefinalfence 