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Cheltenham 2024 – Day 3

13 Mar

It’s St Patrick’s Thursday today and given what’s already happened so far this week there should be further cause to celebrate in the Emerald Isle today. 

The main vanguard trainer of UK hopes – Nicky Henderson – continues to be having a nightmare of a meeting. Jonbon yesterday and Shishkin (Friday’s Gold Cup) became non-runners due to excessively poor form of stable runners in recent days. There could be more withdrawals to come from that stable before the week is out (Lucky Place did run well today but others most definitely have a problem) 

*****

130 Turners Novices Chase 

Irish hopes for a perfect start today rest mainly with FACILE VEGA. The son of 5 times festival winner Quevega, there has always been mighty expectation of this horse. He won the Bumper here two years ago, then finished second in the meeting opener last year. His chasing career hasn’t gone quite to plan so far, and he is stepped up in trip here in an attempt to put less pressure on his jumping. He has something to prove in the chasing sphere still to me and I think his price is too short compared to his actual chance. 

GREY DAWNING is shortest priced of the home side with the market favouring him to turn round earlier season form with GINNYS DESTINY. I’m not so sure he will. He looks like an impressive horse on flatter tracks but do the undulations here ideally suit? He got beaten by making a shuddering mistake two fences out and I wouldn’t be surprised if his jumping was put under scrutiny again here. 

GINNYS DESTINY is unbeaten here this season and his professional jumping style is always going to be an asset. Whilst it may look on paper he may struggle to confirm form with Grey Dawning, he looked to improve significantly last time out. He didn’t get any easy lead that time but that didn’t bother him at all. To win a very competitive handicap as he did under 12 stones was a top-class effort in my eyes 

IROKO adds further spice and looked like a great prospect early in the season until he got sidelined with injury. It looked like he would be out until next year, but connections have got him back. It would be some feat of training though to get him back to the level required to win this. 

Verdict: GINNYS DESTINY is the most solid option here for me. Firms seem keen to lay him but I can’t figure out quite why. Possibly due to two stable runners performing badly this week? There were excuses for both of them though, so I don’t see any reason to press a panic button there yet. Anyway, his price has drifted from about 3/1 to 5/1 today and I’m not complaining about that 

Recommendation; 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY (take 5/1 if you can but 9/2 also acceptable) 

******

210 Pertemps Network Final Hcap Hurdle 

Horses have to qualify for this by finishing in the first 4 of any ‘heats’ held during the year. The qualification criteria used to be far easier for runners to sneak into the race by not trying too hard (or by not running at all if races were abandoned). It’s much harder to do that now – and that’s a good thing for this race in my view 

MILL GREEN has a very consistent record at the Festival. He has jumped the last hurdle in the lead in this race the last two years and finished 3rd on both occasions (beating all his rivals on the stands side of track both times). He may be 12 now but still looked to have lost nothing of his ability when qualifying last time at Exeter. He looked likely to win then but got hampered and the cause wasn’t persevered with. As a result, his mark wasn’t increased, and it looked like a perfect prep to me. The problem is he is trained by Nicky Henderson – a huge black spot there given what has happened this week. 

Stablemate Lucky Place ran very well yesterday but others most definitely haven’t. He would be a recommendation here, but the stable form is once again impossible to factor in now 

Others of note who may be a little better than their mark: 

CUTHBERT DIBBLE is progressive and in the fullness of time may be better than 139. However, I’d worry about just how hard a race he had last time in desperate ground at Haydock. 

LE MILOS. All his best form comes chasing but he would have a higher handicap mark there. His form this season is noting special but then so was his stablemate Langer Dan. Dan Skelton showed once again yesterday how he can prime one perfectly for a big handicap hurdle here. 

ICARE ALLEN. Hasn’t run since qualifying in November. Could easily be plotted up for this. Most of his form at 2 miles but that has looked patently too short a trip for him lately. Go back to his Triumph hurdle 4th in 2022 and you would say he is thrown in here..but there has been a lot of water under the bridge since then 

VERDICT. I’m hoping the old boy Mill Green hasn’t come down with whatever is plaguing his stable, he could easily be declared a non-runner yet. I have backed him ante post but couldn’t put him up as a bet now with all the doubts around 

NO BET 

*******

250 Ryanair Chase 

BANBRIDGE would be the one to beat here on his favoured good ground. He was taken out of the meeting last year when the ground was soft – not as soft as this – and I’m surprised he’s still running. Don’t be surprised to see him pulled out yet and a deduction made to all prices being offered. 

I see this as a wide-open race where I can give some sort of a chance to everything. 

Because of that it’s a NO BET race on this side…. if someone put a gun to my head to make a selection, I’d still probably end up giving out three of four! 

*****

330 Stayers Hurdle 

TEAHUPOO came third here last year when favourite. He’s been kept fresher this year and he is most definitely the one to beat in my mind. The price at under 2/1 is just a bit too low now after he has come in for recent support.

SIRE DU BERLAIS and DASHEL DRASHER beat him last year when they started racing very early and it turned into a war to get home up the hill. Both them and PAISLEY PARK are firmly in the veteran stage now but would be very popular winners 

If it did turn into a similar power battle though they should all fear NOBLE YEATS who uses this as prep race for the Grand National and will stay every yard of this trip and much more.

I do think a year older TEAHUPOO will be too strong for all of these though. 

CRAMBO is the UK’s new young hope. It would be great for local trainer, cake-loving Fergal O’Brien to get his first Festival success here. There can’t be many more popular trainers in the game. I would like to have seen some course form from him coming into this though 

VERDICT; TEAHUPOO would have to be my selection but he’s a bit too short to recommend a bet on. 

*****

410 Plate Hcap Chase 

CREBILLY is the JP McManus plot horse here. His form certainly makes you think his mark of 140 is lenient. I have a major worry here though that all his best form comes in small fields and a 21-runner handicap may be his undoing. 7/2 represents no value to me with this in mind

THEATRE MAN has already got some of ante post money at 10/1 and his chances will get a big boost if Ginnys Destiny (who beat him last time out) wins the opener. Harry Cobden is a great booking, but the value now seems to have been sucked out of his price a bit. 

There is still a bit of juice in the odds of SHAKEM UP’HARRY though. He seemed to take his form up a level here on New Years Day and has done well to be raised only 3 pounds from that. He was only a pound lower when third in this race last year and is arguably a better horse now. With Harry Redknapp owning this one expect some scenes if he wins! 

I have to give an honourable mention to a big outsider in STRAW FAN JACK. He has dropped to a very attractive mark after two lack-lustre runs recently. He’d probably prefer better ground but if Sheila Lewis has found an answer to his problems, I think he is very well in on his back form 

RECOMMENDATION: 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12345 

*****

420 Mares Novices Hurdle 

This could be one of the highlights of the meetings with 4 very classy looking young mares facing off. 

DYSART ENOS and GOLDEN ACE head the home team. The former came out easily best in Aintree’s bumper last season. Golden Ace looks to have improved this season though with hurdles now brought in. 

They have both been campaigned away from the top level this season to avoid getting a penalty for this race. 

Consequently, these two will receive 5 pounds from the two Irish favourites. 

Willie Mullins’s record in mares’ races speaks for itself and in any other year, JADE DE GRUGY, would be the natural favourite here. She has a strong reputation but the vibes from Gordon Elliott’s yard have been so strong for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. The ‘best horse he’s ever had’ has been mooted here – and that is from a stable that has had some very big stars of the past 

Verdict. I find it hard to ignore the vibes for BRIGHTERDAYSAHEAD. This is a bit like Fact to File yesterday, in that one side of me is saying that price is too short and should be laid, but the other side is telling me she could be very special. If any firm offered 4 places on this race I’d be tempted to take GOLDEN ACE. She’s looked very good herself but may be up against the impossible this time. There is huge difference between getting 3 or 4 places for your each-way bets on this race 

NO BET 

****

530 Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys Hcap 

INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN heads the market here and does have the look of another McManus plot. He’s looked like he’s been held back a bit at times in an effort to get a decent mark here – and he does have about the best amateur jockey available in Derek O’Connor. His mark of 145 might be a tad generous compared to his hurdling form but not by that much. His price is too low for me given he has to shoulder top weight here and the trip is a complete unknown. 

AMIRITE could be well in off 142 but seems to need much better ground. BOWTOGREATNESS could also win something decent off 133 but his best form seems to come on flat tracks. 

WHEREITALLBEGAN would probably love a longer trip but on this soft ground – and a likely too quick pace in an amateur race – that could bring his stamina into play. He’s on a much higher mark than his last win but that was a very clear-cut victory. He is part of a good Gordon Elliott challenge here. FAKIR D’ALENE was 4th in this race two years ago off a one-pound higher mark (four pounds if we count Rob James’s claim). His last two runs haven’t been inspiring, but the back form is definitely there 

ANGELS DAWN won this last year but is on an 11-pound higher mark now and much more exposed than he was. 

For the home team, I like RAPPER, who can be in an out, but has performed well at this course before. We can ignore his ‘pulled up’ effort in this race last year as he bled from the nose. A return to form was signaled last time out and he is now on a 4-pound lower mark than last season. He’s won twice off 137 before – is on 138 now but with Anthony O’Neill’s 3 pound claim he is effectively 135. Anthony doesn’t ride too often but being the son of Jonjo O’Neill, I don’t think we can question his pedigree for this! 

VERDICT. With 6 places available with some firms, I’m backing three here. The first two should be in the form to be very competitive – the third needs to bounce back but I feel is a bit overpriced 

RECOMMENDATIONS 

1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN taking 12/1 or better with firms offering 6 places 

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 or better with 6 places 

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE taking 25/1 or better with 6 places 

(5pts in total staked) 

That’s a wrap for Day 3 

Thanks for reading and best of luck with whatever you back 

Paul 

SUMMARY OF DAY 3 RECOMMENDATIONS 

130 2pts ew GINNYS DESTINY 5/1 (1/5 123) 

410 1pt ew SHAKEM UP’HARRY 10/1(1/5 odds 12345) 

530 1pt ew WHERE IT ALL BEGAN 12/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

1pt ew RAPPER taking 16/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

0.5pts ew FAKIR D’ALENE 25/1 (1/5 odds 123456) 

Total staked on day 11 pts

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival Day 2 – 2024

12 Mar

The second day of the Cheltenham Festival has somehow acquired the moniker of ‘Style Wednesday’. Whilst not attending the meeting I’ll have to remember to don my smoking jacket and cravat now for tomorrow’s fare! If you are going – and the weather is the same as on Tuesday morning – the ‘style’ decision maybe what colour Hunter wellies to wear. 

A quick resume of Tuesday’s action first: 

The stable form of Nicky Henderson was given no boost at all by Jeriko Du Reponet pulling up in the opener. Luccia did run well in the Champion Hurdle but Iberico Lord and Maries Rock also underperformed badly. 

More rain than was expected contributed to some very testing heavy ground.  It’s been dry during today and with little rain on the forecast tomorrow it may slip back to Soft going. There is an inspection at 8am for the Cross Country course which was waterlogged today. That will only affect the 410 race but if that does get cancelled we may get some time changes on the remainder of the card 

A great start to the meeting for this blog with Slade Steel winning the opener. Unfortunately couldn’t add any more but The Goffer (ground too heavy for him I ear) and Milan Tino crept into advised places. That ends up with a 3.3 pt profit on the days recommendations.

Tomorrow isn’t as appealing generally on the betting front for me but my thoughts with a few recommendations below

*****

130 Gallaghers Novices Hurdle 

Not the most competitive look to the opener with the Willie Mullins stable fielding 5 of the 8 runners – including the first 3 in the betting. 

BALLYBURN has had the appearance of being a banker in whichever race he ran here in for a while. The victory of his latest victim, Slade Steel, in Tuesday’s opener has cemented this even more. Stamina and ground don’t look to be in question so it’s hard to see any other winner now. 

If the UK side do have a surprise up their sleeve it should be HANDSTANDS. Ben Pauling knows what it takes to win this race after Willoughby Court in 2017.  This one is full of potential and unbeaten in four races – albeit at a lower level. He is being chucked in at the deep end now but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him run well. (Pauling had no issues about the deep ground for Handstands today when asked on Racing TV) 

VERDICT 

Ballyburn should win but the price is too short for me to recommend. I admit to a small each way bet ante post on Handstands at 16/1 but that guarantees 3 places. Here would need the 8 runners all to start to get that and I think the task ahead of him increased after todays action 

NO BET 

*****

210 Brown Advisory Novices Chase 

Another small field with only six here. FACT TO FILE has been the subject of glowing reviews from his stable and in preview evenings coming into this. ‘The next Gold Cup winner’ is a general vibe. I’d normally like to take his profile on given he has beaten very few horses in small fields. However, he did so in some very good times. I the combination of trip and ground isn’t an issue for him I’m inclined to think there may be something behind the hype here. At around EVS I wouldn’t want to bet him, but I wouldn’t want to oppose him either. 

He appeared to break the will of his only rival Gaelic Warrior last time. That one did no harm to the form though on Tuesday! 

STAY AWAY FAY won the 3-mile novice hurdle here last season and we can expect him to try and make this a test to exploit any stamina chinks. I think his connections may have preferred a bigger field though where he wouldn’t have to do all the donkey work himself. 

MONTYS STAR looks a similar staying type to Stay Away Fay but wrapped up in a larger form. He didnt perform well on the course last year – that’s a negative but his stable have been performing well on day one

SANDOR CLEGANE was a bit unlucky behind Stay Away Fay here last season and at the start of the season was of interest to me for this race. He hasn’t looked like the most natural chaser so far though. His run last time looked to be a confidence boosting one to get him round safely. If he can jump quicker, I can see him running well at a price. But this isn’t the track or level of race to be on learning on 

VERDICT 

Another race that doesn’t entice me in to bet. Fact to File is my idea of the winner but again I don’t see enough value in the price to get involved 

NO BET 

****

250 Coral Cup 

Some disappointment for me now coming into this competitive handicap. I had DODDIETHEGREAT and LUCKY PLACE marked down as my early picks. They are both trained by Nicky Henderson though and after day 1, the stable form there remains a major concern. 

The form of Doddiethegreat’s last run has been hugely boosted since and he looked like the step up in trip here would suit him greatly. 

Lucky Place’s latest course run against a very talented rival in Gidleigh Park was form that surpassed his mark of 137 in my view. The softer ground here would be a small question mark 

They would have both been a recommendation but for the elephant in the room that now exists! 

SA MAJESTE looks like a typical well hyped but underpriced Willie Mullins runner in a handicap. He’s fairly impossible to handicap, is very inexperienced and could be ten pounds well in or ten pounds badly in. As my post from last week suggests, following Mullins in handicaps isn’t the road to riches. 

BUILT BY BALLYMORE is much more one to be wary of. The market isn’t taking any chances here though. Trainer Martin Brassil is possibly the most underrated trainer in Ireland and had two close seconds in handicaps at last year’s Festival. Again, it’s hard to handicap him properly but the team behind is much more one to fear in this kind of scenario in my mind 

I’ve backed BALLYADAM at the Festival before but feel better ground will suit him 

LANGER DAN won this race off the same mark last year and having performed so well at this time of the year before has to be on the shortlist. Again, I’m not sure if the ground might be riding a bit too deep for him though 

MIGHT I will have no problems with the ground and ran well at the Festival last year off a higher mark. He’s spent this season chasing so far – and not very successfully. If that hasn’t taken its toll and Harry Fry has managed to get him back to his best, he would be a big runner here 

VERDICT: I thought I had this race cornered but the huge issue of Henderson stable form has prevented me getting involved at this stage 

NO BET 

*****

330 Queen Mother Champion Chase 

A few weeks ago, this looked like a two-horse race with EL FABIOLO and JONBON renewing rivalry. El Fabiolo was much the best in the Arkle last year and remains unbeaten in 6 chase races. Interest has been boosted though by a renaissance of form from 2022 Arkle winner EDWARDSTONE.  

Alan King’s runner had been comfortable held by Jonbon twice this season when given hold up rides. However, he was allowed to bowl along up front last time and put in an exemplary round of precision jumping to win easily at Newbury. 

This race now revolves around Edwardstone being given free rein up front once more. If he performs like he did at Newbury his superior jumping could take others out of their comfort zone. Both El Fabiolo and Jonbon can make mistakes (the latter appears to be getting worse and was even seen belting a fence in schooling on YouTube recently). 

If he can get in such a rhythm and unsettle the others, it’s then a question of him having enough in the tank to last home in soft ground. 

I think El Fabiolo is still the most likely winner here, but I wouldn’t be touching him at short odds. 

I can easily see Edwardstone bettering Jonbon this time though. 

CAPTAIN GUINNESS was second in this last year and could also benefit if ridden quietly behind the principals and pick rivals off late. He was a sick horse at Christmas and was patently looked after in an encouraging reappearance at Leopardstown in February. I’m not sure he’d have wanted all the rain that came early this week though. Some drying ground and I can see him placing again

The presence of another front runner in GENTLEMAN DU MEE and prominent racer ELIXIR DE NUTZ should ensure this race is run at a good clip. There should be no hiding places for any of them here 

VERDICT. Whilst thinking El Fabiolo might well win I see more value in supporting Edwardstone each way. I can’t imagine they won’t employ the same tactics as suited him so well last time. I’d also like him in the Betting Without favourite market 

Recommendation 

1pt ew EDWARDSTONE – generally available 15/2 (as there are 8 runners 3 places will be paid. If there is a non-runner this may revert to 2 places but always worth checking if some firms offer the more advantageous 3 places) 

*****

410 Cross Country Chase 

However soft/heavy the regular track is, the cross-country course is reported to be worse. I’ve been no fan of this style of race for betting for many years and will happily pass again. It seems to have developed into a race for Gold Cup veterans these days 

A fairly categoric (as usual in this race) NO BET 

****

450 Grand Annual Hcap Chase 

This race was always a regular target for Nicky Henderson as it is run in honour of his father. We don’t need to worry about stable form this time as he doesn’t have a runner this year. 

The market seems to think SAINT ROI has been laid out for the race, but I couldn’t touch him given the abysmal jumping he displayed at Leopardstown last time veering violently to the right at times. 

HARPERS BROOK is extremely quirky but has found a niche for his talents at two miles this season. He carries a health warning though as he is prone to stop when in front. If he is 10 lengths clear at last don’t assume he has it in the bag. If you back him a lay bet on Betfair Exchange at short odds is strongly encouraged for some insurance. 

PATH D’OROUX is an interesting contender from a stable that knows how to plot for race like this. He will like the ground but is his jumping good enough? 

LIBBERTY HUNTER is the progressive novice in the pack that often does well in this race but has to defy a large rise from the handicapper. MADARA is also on an upward curve but 13 pounds higher than his last win at this track. 

TRIPLE TRADE caught Harpers Brook on the run in at Ascot earlier in the season and reopposes on the same terms. However, he is a much larger price as his latest run at Lingfield was disappointing. That looked to be bad to be true. He has looked to be suited by the uphill finish here before. The ground is a slight question mark but as he’s won on heavy earlier in his career. The Tizzard team may not have the best record in handicaps here but they were in good form over the weekend 

VERDICT; I’m willing to give Triple Trade a chance to get his progression back on track here given the odds available 

Recommendation:  

0.5 pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (generally available with 1/5 odds 12345 – 6 places in one place) 

*****

530 Champion Bumper 

Another specialist race with no jumping involved. It’s a nursery in essence for next year’s hurdling novice hurdle events. Willie Mullins traditionally has a great record and has won 4 of the last 6 runnings. That’s not surprising though given he many runners he normally fields. This year he fields 9 of the 24 runners. 

If jockey bookings are a sign, then his favoured would be JASMIN DE VAUX (Patrick Mullins) and CANTICO (Paul Townend). 

That doesn’t always go to plan here though and he has won with bigger priced runners as well. 

My eye is mainly drawn to C’EST TA CHANCE who was the subject of positive reports before Christmas. He was narrowly beaten by William Munny is his only start but after that one looked really special on his next start; the form doesn’t look bad at all. 

THE YELLOW CLAY from Gordon Elliott’s stable was the eyecatcher in the main trial race for this at Leopardstown in February. I’m just a little concerned that stable jockey jack Kennedy has chosen JALON D’OUDAIRES instead. 

Verdict: Not a race to go wild on with stakes but I’m willing to take a chance on C’est Ta Chance at decent odds 

Recommendation 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 16/1 or better (take with firms offering 1/5 odds 12345 if possible) 

Thanks for reading once more and good luck 

Paul 

WEDNESDAY RECOMMENDATIONS 

330 1pt ew EDWARDSTONE 15/2  

450 0.5pts ew TRIPLE TRADE 25/1 (taking 1/5 odds 123) 

530 0.5 pts ew C’EST TA CHANCE 161 (taking 1/5 odds 123) 

 
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Posted by on March 12, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2024 – Day 1

11 Mar

The time has come again for this blog to come alive for a week of what should be National Hunt racing’s premier meeting. 

But first some personal venting of the spleen…on a subject that has come to the fore this season. 

It must be said this year there is a bit less excitement coming into the event than usual. For a purist, like myself, who has been an avid watcher since the mid 1970s, there definitely isn’t the same buzz about Festival that there used to be. 

Extra races over recent years have resulted in too many choices of options to run in. This dilution has now, more than ever, resulted in too many uncompetitive championship races with smaller fields and short priced favourites. Coming into the meeting, it used to be clear which horses would be racing there. Now it can be a complete guessing game until final declarations are made. A couple of weeks ago we had two horses listed at 4/7 to win the Champion Hurdle. This just looked plain farcical. 

Thankfully, the prospect of a fifth day for the Festival now seems to have passed and hopefully a return to less races can be done to avoid completely destroying the goose that laid this golden egg! 

With lower prize money in the UK, the domination of Irish powerhouse trainers has spiraled to make the lack of competition even worse. The cost of attending a day at the Festival has also risen to crazy proportions. 

Hopefully these issues can be looked at. On a personal level, I’d like to see mid distance championship races and mares championship races moved to a meeting like Aintree. This would allow the best horses to compete against each other in the same races here and to still have the option to double up! 

That’s enough ranting for the week anyway!…..onto the racing itself, which will hopefully still present some betting opportunities throughout the 4 days ahead. 

The Week ahead and some useful sites… 

It looks certain that we’ll be starting om some taxing soft ground for Day 1 after more rain fell on the track over the weekend. Local trainers have already been reporting that the ground is saturated after so much winter rain. However good the Cheltenham drainage might be, it must be near impossible to dry out in the time left to get to the usual good/good to soft start for the meeting this year. 

Regular updates on the ground throughout the meeting can be found on this page https://www.thejockeyclub.co.uk/cheltenham/owners-and-trainers/the-going/ 

The best site to check out the various odds from different firms (and where to find the best place terms) is here https://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival. This will show where the best odds can be found but also which place terms are being offered. It makes a world of difference to the value of a bet if one firm pays 4 places and another pays only 3. I’ll often post that a bet is best taken where the place terms are enhanced for that reason 

As I’ve mentioned in the past, a knowledge of statistics from previous years is always useful to have in your armoury. No better place to get these than www.gaultstats.com 

****

Onto Tuesday’s card and some personal thoughts: 

130 Supreme Novice Hurdle 

The dominance of the Willie Mullins stable in recent years is perfectly encapsulated here as 6 of the 12 runners are trained by him. Apart from seeing who his number one jockey, Paul Townend, has chosen to ride (TULLYHILL here), you’d really need to be privy to some inside info from the Closutton gallops to know how they really compare. Until recently, it seemed the stable number one would be Ballyburn – but with that one switching to Wednesday’s longer race the waters have muddies some more. 

We therefore don’t have a previous Grade 1 winner in the race, and also (unusually) nothing with any respectable previous course form in the field. 

Both TULLYHILL and MYSTICAL POWER (Townend wouldn’t have had choice to ride as Mark Walsh in number one jockey for owner) have undoubted ability but their jumping ability hasn’t always impressed. 

Gordon Elliott is represented by FIREFOX who has to bounce back from a disappointing effort over a longer trip last time out. Prior to that he had defeated Ballyburn. Whilst that form reads well the reports suggest it was a falsely run race that developed into a late sprint. The form may not be quite as good as it initially looks, and almost certainly Ballyburn improved massively afterwards with more forceful tactics being employed 

The UK team is fronted by JERIKO DU REPONET but there is a real question mark over the form of his stable. Apart from Spring Note’s win last weekend, Nicky Henderson has had a torrid time of late. His ace hurdler, Constitution Hill, had to be pulled out of the Champion Hurdle with blood tests explaining some significantly below par home workouts. Several other runners recently have been pulled up to only emphasize how bad stable form is. The performance of Jeriko Du Reponet is going to be a serious benchmark for the rest of the week. There is a definite risk factor in backing him with this in mind. 

The most solid option for me is Henry De Bromhead’s SLADE STEEL who chased home Ballyburn last time and runs here to avoid that horse again. I can imagine that something was still left to work on with him that day, but he was still well clear of the rest of the field and had solid winning form on soft ground before. 

It could well be that the Mullins team think they still have the firepower to beat him. However, at a price of 9/2 or more and some firms offering 4 places, I struggle to imagine that there are more than 3 horses here who can beat him. Assuming he comes in the first four at that price it still means virtually money back in case Mullins team retain an ace in their pack. 

Additionally, there is no problem with the current form of the De Bromhead stable. Out of 6 runners on Sunday, they had 3 winners and 3 placed! 

VERDICT. 

Back Slade Steel at 9/2 or more with firms offering Each way 1/5 odds 1234  

2PTS ew SLADE STEEL at 9/2 or better with four places 

****

210 Arkle Trophy 

A championship race for novice chasers over 2 miles – and thank goodness we have a competitive one. Some renewals of this race recently have had short-priced favourites and low fields. Here we have a field of 10 and apart from rank outsider, AUTHORISED SPEED, I can make a case for all of them (and a negative for all as well) 

This scenario would normally scream out ‘No Bet’ for me so I’d only play if the odds on something were well above what I expected. 

GAELIC WARRIOR and FOUND A FIFTY have both performed well on similar left handed tracks before but have shown a marked tendency to jump to the right in doing so. That’s too big an issue for me to ignore here. 

IL ETAIT TEMPS has yet to replicate his Leopardstown form elsewhere and was disappointing for me here in last years opener after a similar preparation. 

HUNTERS YARN is inexperienced, and while also very promising, he also ran below par on only Festival outing last year. 

I don’t think QUILIXIOS is the same horse as he was when winning the Triumph Hurdle here as a 4yo but he looks a safe jumper who can keep out of trouble at the front of the race. 

MATATA may well be up front with him and has performed well at the track before. A slight worry here that Daryl Jacob could have ridden him but chose Hunters Yarn 

JPR ONE beat MATATA by half a length last time out at Lingfield and would have won here before Christmas but for an unfortunate fall. The Tizzard team was in good form over the weekend so he should not be underestimated but a tendency to idle in front could make him vulnerable on the final hill here. 

MASTER CHEWY was 8 lengths back at Lingfield but he lost all chance there at a first fence incident. We can safely ignore that and his performance in a fast run event at Kempton over Christmas gives him every chance if he can be delivered late. Tom Bellamy was on board there and I’m glad to see him reunited (Sam Twiston Davies riding his stablemate Matata) . Does he need a flat track though is a slight concern 

If the ground was good I’d definitely be picking MY MATE MOZZIE to have the race set up for him to come late. Soft ground probably isn’t his ideal surface but it isn’t completely against him judged on his past form 

VERDICT. A tight race that I won’t b recommending a bet on given all the positives and negatives. There’s too many negatives for me for those at the front of the betting. If I had to choose one it would be My Mate Mozzie but I can see the home side of JPR One, Matata and Master Chewy all having a chance at decent odds. The Irish contingent would all have been better hurdlers but these 3 UK runners have all improved a lot for going chasing. 

*Take note only a handful of firms offer 4 places here which would make a big difference if having an each way bet 

*****

250 Ultima Hcap Chase 

A typically competitive handicap where MEETINGOFTHEWATERS has been popular early after some favourable comments in recent preview evenings. He was given a ‘Gold Cup winner in waiting’ tag at one and could be ‘a stone well in’. The price is short as a result with layers understandably scared of his mercurial trainer, Emmet Mullins. 

If he is as good as those whispers mooted he might well win but on his actual form he is too short a price for me. 

THE GOFFER is vying with him for favouritism and is much more justifiably priced. His fourth in this race off a 2lb higher mark was a fine effort considering what the 1st and 2nd in that race went on to do (Corach Rambler and Fastorslow). A recent win in a charity race won’t show up on his form stats but looks an ideal low key prep for this. Soft ground will be fine (if it got any worse it may be a slight concern). His trainer Gordon Elliott comes out well on previous handicap stats so that’s an additional positive 

Novice chasers also have a good record in this and I also have to support TRELAWNE in this race. He’s racing over shorter trips this season and performing well – but he looks for all the world that 3 miles will bring out further improvement. The booking of Harry Cobden is an added bonus and I’m pleased to see cheekpieces are retained. The lack of headgear at Wetherby seemed to contribute to some wayward hanging to the right that was corrected next time out. 

Low weights can be favoured in this race and would take my eye but only 2 have crept in below 11 stone this year. WEVEALLBEENCAUGHT could be well handicapped and his poor last run was explained by a fibrillating heart. He still has a bit to prove with that condition in mind but if he did come back to form he would have a chance. GEVREY also get another honourable mention at big odds. He outperformed at this meeting last year when placing at 125/1. He’s higher weighted now but now it’s springtime again I could see his form take a leap again 

VERDICT: A tight race where I’ll be backing THE GOFFER and TRELAWNE and looking for 6/1 and 8/1 respectively. Ideally taking them with books offering 6 places  

1pt ew each THE GOFFER 6/1 and TRELAWNE 8/1 (ew 1/5 odds 123456) 

*****

330 Champion Hurdle 

The supposed Premier race of the day is the least attractive for betting in my eyes. The defection of the clear champion in the 2-mile hurdling realm (he would have been a short priced favourite) has only served to give us another likely winner at short odds. STATE MAN was clearly second best last year, but is seemingly way ahead of the rest in this division. At best odds of around 2/5 it’s not hard to say he’s the likely winner and he should win this. As long as there remain 8 runners there is an each way option of getting 3 places but nothing is leaping out to me as guaranteed to be 2nd or 3rd. A race I’ll happily just watch. 

VERDICT. State Man should win but no bet at restrictive odds 

****

410 Mares Hurdle 

Team Mullins again dominates the betting here with LOSSIEMOUTH favourite at around 4/6 and stable mate ASHROE DIAMOND the only rival at single figure odds. Ideally, we would have seen Lossiemouth contending the previous race against State Man and these two races would have suddenly become more competitive.  

I’m not sure the combination of trip and ground is ideal for Ashroe Diamond here to be seen to her best advantage. The ground is probably less of a problem for Lossiemouth but the trip of two and a half miles is a step into the unknown. She did look more of a speed horse to me last year 

To exploit any stamina chinks. Something else will have to make this race a test to negate the favourite’s turn of foot, The trouble is I’m not sure who will as there isn’t an obvious front runner in the field. 

MARIES ROCK has won the race before and will stay but can run too freely and is best being held up (also comes with the Henderson stable form question mark). LOVE ENVOI was second last year and appeals most as the one who could benefit from a test on the likely soft ground…but will she have to make her own running to do it? She certainly won’t get any help from any of the 4 Mullins runners. Last year’s Mares Novice winner YOU WEAR IT WELL led all the way and could be an influence in the outcome of this race if similar tactics are employed again. 

VERDICT. Lossiemouth the likeliest winner but given the possible stamina issue I won’t be backing at prohibitive odds. LOVE ENVOI appeals as the best each way option. Her chances will be increased if there is a good pace on testing ground. No enhanced place terms here at time of writing so just a small each bet at 14/1 recommended 

0.5 pts ew LOVE ENVOI 14/1 

*****

450 Boodles Juvenile Hcap Hurdle 

It’s slightly weird to see the Paul Nicholls stable having their only runner of the day here with top weight LIARI. He’s unbeaten in 3 races this season and so carries a justifiable top weight here. I have to be put off by the recent years’ stats on Nicholls in handicaps (see my post last week). All his wins have also been on flat tracks, completely different to here. 

Early favourite LARK IN THE MORNING may well be well handicapped but I can’t help but think he would prefer better ground and I’m much more taken by the chances of market rival MILAN TINO. 

Connections must have been over the moon to see his mark dropped to 126 for this race (had been 136 based on his French form). The soft ground here should be right up his street and with course experience already gained I make him the one to beat. 

At much bigger odds I also like another course winner AN BRADAN FEASA, who had Milan Tino behind him here earlier in the season. 

On the face of it, he may struggle to reverse Musselburgh form with Liari who beat him 8 lengths and is only 5 pounds better off. However, I’d very much have seen that as a prep run where he might not have been fully tuned up – and this being his prime target on a course he has performed well at before. There has been some 40/1 available on him which is far too big for me…33/1 would also be very acceptable to me in a race where extra places will be paid 

ROARING LEGEND also ran very well in that Musselburgh race but has disappointed on soft ground since. I fear the soft ground will be against him again here but should conditions suddenly improve he would become an interesting outsider as well. 

Recommendations 

1.5 pts ew MILAN TINO 6/1 or more  

0.5 pts ew AN BRADAN FEASA 33/1 or better 

(taking firms offering 6 places rather than 5 if possible) 

*****

530 National Hunt Chase 

Another race that has been changed in recent years. It used to be over 4 miles and qualifying criteria was aimed at slow maturing types who didn’t have a back catalogue of wins in their earlier career. That used to supply a consistently large field but the new criteria has resulted in small fields and taken away horses from Wednesday’s 3-mile novice event. 

We have 7 runners declared this year – and at least a more competitive look than we’ve had on some other recent editions. It’s possible to give all seven a chance. 

There is often a gulf between the top amateur riders in Ireland and those in the UK but the seven we have here do not include any that would put me off having a bet. 

I can find some negatives for those at the front of the betting here. 

CORBETTS CROSS’s fall last time wasn’t his fault but it’s still not ideal as a preparation. His run at the Festival last year when in contention but running out at the final hurdle is also a slight cause for concern. Stamina for this extended trip on soft ground also gives me enough of a doubt at short odds. 

EMBASSY GARDENS did even worse here last year – a performance attributed to him ‘boiling over’ in the preliminaries. You’d want to see the huge crowds aren’t having an effect on him again here. Stamina is less of a problem, but I wouldn’t be going overboard about his latest win. While impressively beating Sandor Clegane, the latter looked to have more of a confidence boosting run on the side of the track with patently worse ground. 

SALVADOR ZIGGY has so much form on decent ground that I have to feel the soft conditions here may be a negative for him. 

This leads me to bigger prices KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY as better options. Both were just behind HENRYS FRIEND last time but on this softer ground and stiffer trip I can see a reverse.on the cards 

With 7 runners, most firms will only offer 2 places each way here, but some are offering 3 places as enhanced terms and that’s here to go 

VERDICT; KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY both appeal as each way bets with firms offering the 1/5 odds 123 enhancement 

1pt ew on both KILBEG KING and APPLE AWAY taking 10/1 or better with that place enhancement recommended. (4pts stake in total)

*****

That concludes Tuesday’s fare. I’ll be back on Tuesday evening with a preview for Wednesday after digesting the first day’s results (Henderson stable form on day one could well be a big factor for forthcoming days)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back 

Paul 

Summary of Tuesday Recommendations:

130 2pts ew Slade Steel 9/2 or better taking 1/5 odds 1234

250 1pt ew The Goffer 6/1; 1pt ew Trelawne 8/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 12456

410 0.5pts ew Love Envo1 14/1 or better taking 1/5 odds 123

450 1.5pts ew Milan Tino 6/1 or better; 0.5 pts ew An Bradan Feasa 33/1 or better (taking 1/5 odds 123456)

530 1pt ew Kilbeg King; 1pt ew Apple Away – taking 10/1 or better on both with selected firms who offer 1/5 odds 123

(total 17 pts staked on day 1)

 
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Posted by on March 11, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2024 – How do the top trainers perform in handicaps?

27 Feb

With only a couple of weeks ago – and some time on my hands – an early post on the blog this year. With weights due to be published today for the handicap races, I’ve been looking how the top trainers have performed in them over the past 5 festivals.

There are some definite winners and losers highlighted in the tables below. While its always easier to see how your money would go profit/loss wise to a one unit stake, I was also interested in each way performance here.

While the standard each way terms of 1/4 1234 for handicaps of 16 or more runners seem rare to find these days, I’ve applied the enhanced terms of 1/5 123456 which should be quite commonly offered this year.

This covers the 4 handicap chases and 5 handicap hurdles run at the meeting (and also the two runnings of the now defunct novices chase handicap from 2019 and 2020)

Hcap Chases: Ultima, Grand Annual, Plate, Kim Muir

H’cap Hurdles: Boodles, Coral Cup, Pertemps Final, County Hurdle, M Pipe

Findings below are using the recorded SP (it taking an early price and getting Best Odds Guaranteed this could give a higher figure still):

This covers the trainers with most runners in each sphere over the last 5 years. There will be other trainers with a good profit figure but with less overall runners that is largely due to one horse (e.g Corach Rambler twice a winner for Lucinda Russell in hcap chases would skew figures dramatically)

We can see who is doing well – and who can be expensive to follow

GORDON ELLIOTT (also includes Denise Foster for the year she ‘stepped in to cover’ in 2021

Given how many runners he throws in, it’s surprising to see how well you would have come out by backing all of his horses each way blindly – both in hurdles and chases! He is running near to 4 horses in each handicap hurdle – way above all other trainers. You don’t need to be focusing on his perceived number one runner either. Commander of Fleet won the 2022 Coral Cup as a 50/1 outsider ahead of 6 other stablemates including a 9/2 favourite. Last year, Jazzy Matty winning at 18/1 in Boodles and a 125/1 4th place from Gevrey in the Plate were principal each way contributors to coffers.

WILLIE MULLINS

The Mullins team will be dominant again in non handicaps but they are obviously less bothered when it comes to handicaps and come with a financial health warning. They may well be priced too short as well given his perceived dominance so they when they do occasionally come in you won’t be profiting too much. (E.g State Man went off a very low 11/4 fav when winning the 2022 County Hurdle

PAUL NICHOLLS

Once a trainer to be feared in handicaps, the wheel have well and truly fallen off in recent year. Nicholls hasn’t had a handicap win since Le Prezien in 2018 and we have to go back to 2016 to find some consistent strength in these figures. This suggests his runners may well be too exposed to the handicapper by the time they come here. This could well be explained by changes of staff who were more wise to the planning for such races (see the figures of his once assistant Dan Skelton below). Nicholls still must be feared in graded races, but for now he seems one to avoid in handicaps

NICKY HENDERSON

Some interesting figures here. You wouldn’t be in profit by backing him win only but he’s had a much higher proportion of places than others and consistently been profitable on the each way side (nearly half of all his hurdlers finishing in to 6). The evergreen Mill Green has been a prime contributor in last 4 seasons (3rd, 3rd, 6th and 7th at 22/1,33/1, 40/1 and 66/1). Whilst certainly not appearing thrown in he has generally run his best race of the season here and although now 12 he’s still one to remember in this year’s Pertemps when extra places are added. What we do have to bear in mind here though is stable form. It’s dire right now – and highlighted by stable star Constitution Hill failing to shine in a gallop today. Some checking will be required in 10 days time to see if there is some light again in that tunnel!

DAN SKELTON

Skelton has always been known for being able to target a handicap and it’s in hurdles where he performs best. We can break that down even more and say the County Hurdle is most definitely a speciality. Faivoir 33/1 and Chtibello 12/1 have both won in last 5 years in that race – go back a bit further and we can add Mohayyed 33/1 and Superb Story 8/1

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

De Bromhead seems to be a bit less selective in his runners in recent years – maybe he is also concentrating more on graded races. He still is showing a profit in chases though with Maskada’s win in 2023 ‘s Grand Annual at 22/1 keeping his figures high. Hurdles profit/loss is less inspiring. (Also a good chance here that the popularity of any runners ridden by Rachel Blackmore may shorten prices)

VENETIA WILLIAMS

The trainer to keep on side in the Plate in times past (33/1 and 50/1 winners in there), Venetia did suffer a bit of a drought until a 40/1 win and 66/1 place in the 2022 Kim Muir served to remind us she shouldnt be forgotten quite yet. Traditionally she’s one to fear a bit more when the going is soft. Hurdles would be much less her thing

JOE TIZZARD (following on from father Colin)

Again getting the feeling here that his runners have had their marks exposed too much by the time this meeting arrives

******

Hopefully some food for thought here, in particular to the each way angle on Cheltenham handicaps

For a wide variety of other stats, there is no point me writing them up when the excellent http://www.gaultstats.com has already got them in bucketloads (if using dont forget to donate to the cause that prompted all the work that has one into it)

Blog will be back in just under 2 weeks with some race analysis again this year – Cheltenham Festival runs from 12-15 March

Until then, thanks for reading,

Paul

 
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Posted by on February 27, 2024 in Uncategorized

 

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Cheltenham Festival 2023

13 Mar

Welcome back to my annual blog for jump racing’s premier fixture!


I started this site several years ago to accommodate the number of requests I used to get for my thoughts. It’s been a bit of a labour of love in that time and as I’ve usually taken the week off I’ve been able to update during the week.


This week I have other commitments though and will be unable to add daily posts.
Consequently, I’m putting everything on one post to cover the week this year. I’ll only mention the races where I have more interest at this stage. There will be slightly more emphasis on Tuesday and Wednesday since declarations are finalised for both at time of writing – we still to wait for final confirmations for the other two days.


The ground conditions are still slightly up in the air as I write. Good to Soft or Soft look likely for Tuesday at the moment – dependant on what both wind (to dry) and rain (to soften) hits the course in next 24 hours. Please bear in mind notes for what conditions will suit which horses most for those later in the week especially.


As usual also look for enhanced place terms being available later in the week. There can be some very attractive offers added the night before or on day of race


Onto the racing:


Tuesday.
The Champion Hurdle is the main race. I’ve been following the Festival since the mid 1970s and saw a ‘golden age’ of hurdlers then. Constitution Hill would easily stand tall into that elite category on what he has shown so far. I hope to see him cement his position as the best hurdler seen this century here. His short price reflects this though and so this can only b a race to watch and savour.


Races with more of a betting angle for me are:


130 Supreme Novices Hurdle
I might give a second chance to a horse who disappointed badly last time out and was subsequently lame if the price was high. Facile Vega is the hype horse at front of the market here and his price is certainly not attractive given his effort last time. He won at the Festival last year but the form hasn’t worked out and his last race was the first time another horse took him on in a race, It didn’t end well and I’d need far more than 2/1 or 5/2 to consider him here.
Marine Nationale looked an excellent prospect before Christmas but hasn’t raced since (by design from trainer). I’d prefer if he did have more match practice as he almost lost that last race by one poor jump.
It’s the perceived Mullins number two – Il Etait Temps – who interests me most here. He has all important course experience and has progresses this season. I dont think he was allowed to be ridden too effectively when beaten by Facile Vega before Christmas – but it was him who shone the next time when able to sit behind a stronger pace.
Another strong pace looks likely here and I can’t see him being far away here. At 5/1 or bigger he represent the value to me and with some firms offering 4 places that represents an ideal each way opportunity (providing money back if placed which is a struggle for me to see not happening)
The only downside might be if we get heavy rain and the ground gets really soft. That looks unlikely right now but if it does then Tahmuras might be the one to benefit most of the other runners


Recommendation – Il ETAIT TEMPS taking 5/1 or more each way with firms offering 4 or more places)

250 Ultima Hcap
This race has been kind to me over the years and always draws me in.
The Big Breakaway is my Grand National pick at this stage. I wouldn’t dissuade anyone from him at 33/1 currently as I think he’ll run well here. Stable jockey Brendan Powell wont want to lose the ride with that in mind but this is a trial for him after all and connections probably are leaving something to work on with a bigger prize in mind, The same applies to last years winner Corach Rambler (fav for Grand National currently and less value in my eyes)
It’s also important that low weights have traditionally prospered in this race so with soft in the description I’ll be focussing more on those carrying less than 11 stone.
Two horses stand out for me.
Oscar Elite was 3rd in this race last year off a 1lb lower mark. He had been placed at the Festival as well the year before and with a recent return to winning form he looks primed for another good run. I’m not surprised the stable jockey isn’t riding him for reasons stated above – but Harry Cobden is the deputy I hoped to se and gets on really well with this horse. He has a great chance for me with the small caveat again that really soft ground might be a slight negative
The low weight also makes last year’s 7th Fantastikas stand out at double figure odds. He was racing off a 10lb higher mark then having dipped in form a bit this season. Contrary to the first race though this one’s price does tempt me to give him another chance. There were signs of a return to form last time on ground that wouldn’t have suited. The rain has definitely helped this one and it’s very interesting to see connections have fitted first time cheekpieces.


Recommendations:
OSCAR ELITE and FANTASTIKAS each way with firms offering 6 places or more

530 National Hunt Chase
Another short priced favourite here in Gaillard du Mesnil. He has the best form for sure but with some strong stayers in thsi race his stamina should be properly tested
Mister Coffey has had this race as his aim since finishing 2nd at the Festival last year and the fact that connections booked top amateur Derek O’Connor so long before the race speaks volumes.
His stamina isnt proven but he looks for all the world to me that he needs a trip like this – he can just gallop without having a turn of foot thats needed over shorter.
The recent rain has been a godsend here. Connections have withdrawn him several times this season on unsuitable good ground. I think he’s been fine tuned for this race and is another I struggle to see finishing out of the frame


Recommendation
MISTER COFFEY each way – 10/1 or more ideally

*****

WEDNESDAY
Only one race here where I’ll be strongly involved at this stage…


130 Ballymore Novices Hurdle
We have another short priced Willie Mullins favourite here in Impaire Et Passe. He’s looked impressive but his price is more about hype and he hasn’t beaten horses of the calibre that others have yet. His stablemate Gaelic Warrior has a tendency to jump to the right which must be concerning here.
Then we have Mullins also fielding Champ Kiely. There is much less to knock him and I see him as the one who will add the pace to this race to make it a good test.
This should suit both Hermes Allen and Good Land and its the latter who is by far the most attractively priced runner in this race for me at 5/1 or better
I really cant pick any holes in his form this season and his proven stamina over a longer trip should see him right there at the finish. Another who I struggle to see finishing out of the frame at the very least


Recommendation
GOOD LAND ew 5/1 or better

*****

THURSDAY
Ground notes for all here added


130 Turners Novices Chase
Mighty Potter has looked very good this year but its a huge worry that his worst performance came at this venue last year. He needs to prove himself outside of Ireland and on this course. BANBRIDGE is proven and has to be my selection here BUT….soft ground is more of negative here. Good to Soft or better makes him a better bet


330 Stayers Hurdle
A small interest here on French raider HENRI LE FARCEUR as the price seems a bit big at 20/1 or more. His French form reads very well against fellow raider Gold Tweet who is half the price. Softer the ground the better here.


410 Magners Plate
DATSARIGHTGINO went straight into my notebook for this race after his January second here when beaten by a very well handicapped rival. I loved the way he devoured the hill – even if his jumping wasnt quite as efficient as the winner. It was a slight blow that he got a 4lb rise after a recent second at Kempton (a course that shouldnt suit him as much) but if he gets good to soft or better ground I still think he has a great chance


450 Mares Novices Hurdle
LOT OF JOY is my strongest fancy for Thursday currently. She first hit my radar after going close in the Irish Cesarewitch despite a really bad draw. I had her in mind for this years Ebor (premier handicap race on the flat) soon after that but once I saw she was going jumping I’ve been watching closely.
A last flight blunder probably robbed of a win first time out (beaten by a very useful type in any case) – and I think a longer trip counted against her next time. Back over 2 miles she showed what she could do next time with a confidence building prep race
I think she is at least a listed class performer and seems to go on all ground.
The key for me is she gets 5lb here from her main rivals Luccia and stable mate Ashroe Diamond

*****

FRIDAY


130 Triumph Hurdle
GALA MARCEAU has to be the value here. She might have had things go her way against stablemate Lossiemouth last time whwn the latter got badly hampered but I still like to way she ran to the line laving others trailing in her wake. The other stablemate Blood Destiny is harder to gauge but Gala Marceau is the only one of the three that offers a price where each way becomes attractive at 4/1 or bigger. She was very fizzy and pulled very hard when baten by Lossiemouth previously but settled far better last time. Hopefully Danny Mullins renews this partnership as he think he can get the best out of her


330 Gold Cup
The softer the ground the more this centrepiece of the meeting becomes a stamina test. The final hill in the Gold Cup has so often found out those who looked like winners before the home turn
Galopin Des Champs is just too short a price for me and there are three – all with proven stamina in a race that should be strongly run
NOBLE YEATS stamina assured here with his Grand National win. There was a definite WTF moment at Aintree this eason when he seemed to engage a turbo boost on the run in. I don’t think he was at all fully tuned up last time out and with his cheekpieces now reapplied they should all be fearful if he is within a couple of lenghts at the last
STATTLER also has proven stamina and festival winning form. The faster the pace the better here and he has to go close, A srong each way candidate
MINELLA INDO has won this before and is the most attractively priced here of the trio right now. His form can be in and out elsewhere but his Cheltenham Festical record now reads 1212 – enough said!
I’d be hopeful that some firms might offer 4 places for each way on this race later this week to make each way plays even more attractive

Thats my run down of the meeting complete.
Hopefully its useful to some and pinpoints a few winners

In summation, for those looking for each way multiples this week I’d be focussing most on these as things stand today:
IL ETAIT TEMPS
MISTER COFFEY
GOOD LAND
LOT OF JOY
GALA MARCEAU

Good luck to whatever you back and enjoy the week!

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 13, 2023 in Uncategorized

 

Grand National 2022

08 Apr

Sorry all but not enough time to do any lengthy posts on the National this year. Suffice to say I won’t be backing any of the higher weights over 11st 5lb as stats are heavily against them. That rules out some at the head of the betting market this year for me

Ground doesnt look likely to be too soft at time of writing. If the showers continue to hold off both Discorama and Dingo Dollar appeal as two bigger prices who have form in distance races like this and look overpriced.

If the rains do come it should favour others more. Eclair Surf in patricular could really benefit with such a stamina test but may get outpaced on good going. Santini also looks a nice price if there is soft in the going description (note he has beaten potential fav Delta Work both times they have met before and is better off at weights here as well). If Nick Schofield can get him into a nice rhythm over the early fences I can see him running a decebt race here.

Fortescue is also going the right way. Stamina not totally proven but he looks like he needs a trip. I can’t find his jockey having any previous experience over these fences which tempers enthusiam a little.

As always hope they all come back safe and well

Good luck to whatever you back

Paul

 
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Posted by on April 8, 2022 in Uncategorized

 

Cheltenham Festival 2022 – Day 3 and 4 previews

16 Mar

A good start for the blog on Tuesday picking out 3 winning bets and highlighting a double
I’m publishing this now in advance of Day 2 with Friday’s declarations now in

***

Day 3 – Thursday 17th March
Happy St Patricks Day!


130 Turners Novices Chase
A 4 runner race to kick this off isn’t the best advert for the meeting. It’s pretty bad to feel spoilt to get this many…a few days ago it looed like we may have just had a 2 runner match between the main principals.
I won’t be getting involved. Bob Olinger was the better hurdler but Galopin Des Champs looks to have a better jumping technique and would have marginal preference for me as I think he’s less likely to make errors

***

210 Pertemps Final
A 24 runner handicap with some firms offering 7 or even 8 places each way. You’ll need all of that in such a tricky heat to get any edge
Winter Fog and Alaphilippe have both the look of horses who have been teed up for this…but the market is aware of that too with some quite skinny prices for them both in such a competitive race
I’d be more interested in finding bigger prices who have a shot at these extra places and two that fit that bill for me are HONEST VIC and IF THE CAP FITS. Both have performed at a higher level in the past and their handicapped have dropped to give them a chance to rekindle their old sparks.
Honest Vic has run well at the Festival before and is back down to a mark of 141 that he has won off before. He was the subject of some encouraging reports from his trainer recently
If the Cap Fits has competed at much higher levels than this and is a former Grade 1 winner. His mark is at an all time low now that his form has taken a marked dip but there was more encouragement in his latest effort. With Ben Bromley also taking off 7lbs, I’m hoping he’ll find more improvement here with only 10 stone on his back for the first time in his career

***

250 Ryanair Chase
ALLAHO‘s win here last year was probably the most impressive performance of the week. He’s been trained only with this race in mind this time and if in anything like the same vein I can’t see him being beat
I’d be looking at the betting without market for more value here and think SAINT CALVADOS fits the bill. His last effort can easily be forgiven when he bled according to stewards report (went from going well to stopping very quickly and soon looked after by his jockey)
His second in this race previously (sandwiching Min and A Plus Tard) is I think the best piece of form outside the favourite and his previous well being was advertised in the King George over Christmas where stamina over 3 miles again found him out
You need something who won’t want to take on Allaho for the lead in this market and he fits the bill for me at a decent price

***

330 Stayers Hurdle
An odd race this year with all the main protagonists having something on their cv that could detract from their chances
Last year’s winner Flooring Porter is a quirky type and his Achilles heel could definitely be having to contend with a huge crowd. His improved form last year can in no small part be attributed to having empty venues to help his errantness.
My pick is CHAMP who has less downsides than many this season. His downside was the bigger fences but like previous winner Big Bucks I think he’s found his metier back over hurdles now.
He got run down up the hill by a resurgent Paisley Park last time but the suspicion is he might not have been fully tuned up for that prep run and I think he may reverse that form now.
His novice chase win here from Minella Indo and Allaho is quite probably the best individual piece of back form here.
LISNAGAR OSCAR was behind the selection last time but ran encouragingly there. He did the same before winning this race at a huge price in 2020. I could see him outrunning his odds again and would be an alternative each way play with firms who pay 4 places for those looking for an outsider

****

410 Plate Hcap Chase
I’ve only had one horse in mind for this for a while – THE GLANCING QUEEN. Stable form has already been advertised by Edwardstone’s win in the Arkle on Thursday.
I’ve already mentioned the race she ran i over Christmas in my Tuesday preview as being one to note. Both Oscar Elite and Fanstastikas ran well there…and hoping that L’Homme Presse does the same on Wednesday if his stamina holds out

It will be hard to miss ‘the Queen’ in this race with her flashy white blaze

****

450 Mares Novices Hurdle
22 runners and I can give chances to far too many of them to make it a race to have any strong opinion in.
I was very impressed by Love Envoi last time but with all her form on heavy ground, the quicker conditions have to be a worry
If I had to pick one it might be Grangee but highly likely I will just leave this race alone

***

530 Kim Muir Amateur Jockeys Hcap Chase
COME ON TEDDY ran very well at the Festival last season. I was a little worried who might be riding him here but connections have managed to get one of GB’s best amateur pilots on board to assuage those fears. His jumping has been a bit sketchy at times
He was also a runner in the Cheltenham race I mentioned earlier – the trip being far too short for him that day but at least it gave him a chance to get used to the fences here. The trip in this should play to his strengths far more

With a swing in the weights and a good jockey booking I think he can reverse recent form with Omar Maretti

****

Day 4 – Friday March 18th

Gold Cup Day!

130 Triumph Hurdle
The general perception when Pied Piper beat VAUBAN on their hurdling debuts was that the latter would improve more. Whilst both have won easily since it was the latter where the form had more substance and I think he will be hard to beat here.
The one who could possible upset the Irish for me is KNIGHT SALUTE. He looked to have real potential on the flat on his 2yo debut but then his form deteriorated badly. He’s been totally revived by Milton Harris as a juvenile hurdler and with his less well known connections has been overpriced in nearly all of his winning runs this season
Paddy Brennan is a master at riding this track and if he can get him involved at the final hurdle they should all be worried up the finishing hill

***

210 County Hurdle
Suprise Package absolutely bolted up in the Imperial Cup on Saturday and may be a popular pick to double up here before his mark is reassessed. The ground conditions won’t be as tacky though and there was a possibility that he benefitted from racing away from dead ground on the rail that day
I LIKE TO MOVE IT is more exposed than others at the front of the betting but I don’t think he’ll be far away. The horse who beat him narrowly in the Tote Gold Trophy ran well in the Champion Hurdle. There are also two course wins earlier in the season to recommend him
At much bigger odds, I’ll also keep an eye on Tax For Max if his price gets very big. He has looked a complete tearaway at times but has now been gelded. If that has the desired effect and he can channel his talents properly he could be a dangerous longshot

****

250 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle – the ‘Spud race’ affectionately
Hillcrest is one of the most exciting staying novices I have seen for a while. He’s a huge horse who has future Gold Cup winner written all over him. I’m slightly surprised he runs in this often attritional race though with his future i mind. I’d love to see him win but think ground conditions would have helped his cause more if softer. Indeed, if conditions were to get quicker it would be no shock to see connections reroute him to Aintree instead
STAG HORN is more appealing to me at double figure prices. It’s rare to see a good flat performer in this (Penhill a recent winner would be another to spring to mind)
For one so inexperienced over jumps he jumped very slickly last time and this longer trip should assist his limitless stamina seen on his flat exploits. Pontefract is a track you wouldn’t normally have linked to Cheltenham but his form from there gives me no fears about how he would cope with an uphill finish

****

330 Cheltenham Gold Cup
It’s hard for reigning champions to defend their title historically. As well as Minella Indo won that race he hasn’t backed it up since and you’d be taking a chance that he has suddenly had another Spring revival in form if backing him
I think this is firmly between A PLUS TARD (2nd last year) and GALVIN (NH Chase winner here last year). Both have great back form on the track and only a short head separated them when they met at Leopardstown over Christmas. Galvin won that and maybe slightly the stronger stayer of the two which just sways me in his direction…but I think there is precious little in it with possibility that A Plus Tard could just have been feeling his previously race a bit then. If there is a big discrepancy between them on prices on the day that might ultimately make my choice for me

****

410 Hunters Chase
No strong opinion here. I’m not sure Billaway was at his best when beaten by Winged Leader. While I can see that form being reversed the Irish favourite makes too many mistakes at his fences for me. BOB AND CO is similar in that he can make errors but he is a more appealing price and the ground here will suit him so much better than his pipe opener last time at Haydock. I haven’t always been a fan of his rider David Maxwell but have gradually warmed to his style and you certainly can’t knock his will to win!

***

450 Mares Chase
ELIMAY went down narrowly in this last year. With the victor then (Colreevy) now retired as a brood mare, this likeable little grey mare should get her chance to shine.
Her form had looked to deteriorate earlier in the season but she looked back to form last time and I’ll look no further than her here

****

530 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle
If it wasn’t for running into Galopin Des Champs last year, LANGER DAN would have been a 9 length winner in this. After an obvious pipe opener last time he has somehow got into this race off only a 2lb higher mark
His chance is obvious with his trainer knowing exactly how to get one right on the day for such a likely plot
Connections will just be hoping there isn’t another unexposed Graded performer lurking in the Irish challenge

Thanks for reading and hope everyone has a successful week

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 16, 2022 in Uncategorized

 

Cheltenham Festival 2022 – Day 1 and Day 2 previews

14 Mar

Welcome back to my annual foray into trying to pinpoint winners at the Cheltenham Festival.
Unfortunately, this years blog will be shorter with just conclusions listed for each race.
There is a lot going on in the world right now that has taken my focus away from the Festival to some degree. We can only hope things improve for the people of Ukraine soon. Cheltenham will be a welcome distraction but it won’t quite be at the forefront of my mind this week as it normally would.
Statistics for races can be found on my posts from previous years. Once more I must point to gaultstats.com as an invaluable resource for that – please don’t forget to donate if using that excellent site.
Onto the races, where after weekend rain and some course watering, proper Good to Soft ground is expected on day one

****


Day 1 – Tuesday 15th March


Possibly the most interesting of the 4 days for me after seeing declarations……


130 Supreme Novices Hurdle
A very good race to open the card with five runners at the front of the betting who all look to be proper Grade 1 performers. Nothing has impressed me more than CONSTITUTION HILL though this season and he has to be my selection. It would have been nice to see some form on the course from him but we can say that for all of them except Kilcruit.
The two caveats that prevent me from going all in are his lack of form on a left hand track – and the fact that this race isn’t always won by ultimately the best horse ( Al Ferof and Champagne Fever winning similar high class renewals from horses who later proved much better).The hill shouldn’t prove any issues though considering the way he powered away up the stiff Sandown finish.

****

210 Arkle Trophy
I’m counting four front runners here and the likely strong pace should test the jumping of these novices. This should suit EDWARDSTONE to a tee with his main rivals all showing more frailties over the obstacles this season.
I’m seeing a lot of quotes about Alan King’s horse in previews along the lines of ‘he’ s the right favourite…but I want to take him on…’. That seems a bot of an oxymoron to me but I won’t be complaining if firms want to push him out and compete to be the biggest. With this in mind I fully expect him to go over 3/1 on race day and the bigger he gets the more I like him as a bet

you won’t see many novices jump round the stiff fences at Warwick as proficiently as Edwardstone did in his prep run

Additional an each way double on selections from first two races seems a sensible play here. Especially with some firms offering extra places on the 210. Having both placed should see a very small profit…but both winning with combined odds of over 12/1 seems very fair value

***

250 Ultima Hcap Chase
Perennial challenger Vintage Clouds is back to defend his crown from last year and appears to be reaching form at the right time once more. At the age of 12 he will be doing well to do that though and certainly won’t have his way up front this year with Frodon in the field.
With the Irish not having a great record in this race historically – and lower weights usually doing better on the stats my main selection is KILTEALY BRIGGS.
This horse really seems to have flourished this season and has been aimed at this for some time (owned by the sponsors – and picked ahead of Threeunderthrufive who was swerved to avoid him)
Whilst most of his form has been at shorter, he is closely related to Grand National winner Ballabriggs and promises to be suited to this trip now he has matured. His run against much higher rated novices at Kempton was also every encouraging considering how badly he was in against them.
Not far behind in my mind and secondary choice would be FANTASTIKAS – a novice who already has good course form and will appreciate the distance
His run here over Christmas was in a race I wouldn’t be surprised is a pointer for others this week. Take note of how he (and Oscar Elite) run here with others in mind

***

330 Champion Hurdle
If my analysis is right so far it will be 3-0 to the home side by now…but expect the Irish fightback to start here with HONEYSUCKLE who is hard to oppose defending her crown. With her odds very prohibitive I’d put up EPATANTE (2020 winner) as the each way selection at around 16/1 – and as the best bet in betting without the favourite markets. She shouldn’t beat the favourite on last years form but I think she still holds the nod over the rest of them

***

410 Mares Hurdle
A much more competitive look to this one than in previous years. STORMY IRELAND has run in it without success a few times but she comes here now as far less of a tearaway than she has been in past.
I don’t think being taken on for the lead by Heaven Help Us will be as much of a stumbling block now and think she has the best form coming into this. I might have been a bit happier if regular pilot Danny Mullins was still aboard but assume stable jockey Paul Townend had first call instead. He’s not that bad a replacement though!
At bigger odds I also have to put up MARTELLO SKY as an each way bet where extra places are available. The trip was far too short for her in the novices race last year where she made up a huge amount of ground up the hill after being out with the washing.
She’s much improved this year in terms of her level of form and her jumping technique

****

450 Boodles Juvenile Hcap
All the pre race talk is about how well in Gaelic Warrior could be in this. He might well be 10lb or more better than his mark – built into that though he is very short price for such a race.
There will be others who are also better than their marks. Several other Irish challengers fit into that but I’m also fairly sure that SAINT SEGAL is a good bit better than his mark of 126 (123 if counting Chester Williams’ claim)
He still looked immature when cruising to the front at Chepstow inly to be outmuscled by Triumph hurdle bound Porticello. I’m hoping that experience won’t be lost on him and a good pace here will also suit

****

530 Ukraine Appeal National Hunt Chase
6 runners for the finale is the lowest turnout since the 19th century doesn’t help its cause as a betting medium. Vanillier has the best previous course form but hasn’t impressed me too much over the larger obstacles. I don’t have a firm enough view on his two main rival to give a selection here and won’t be betting

****

Day 2 – Wednesday 16th March
Looks like the quietest day for me in terms of opinions….


130 Ballymore Novices Hurdle
SIR GERHARD has course winning form and looks a class above on form. It’s just a perceived stamina issue over this trip that holds me back at the prices and I won’t be betting (not sure there is anything that will be wanting to force such a pace that makes stamina an issue mind…)
For each way purposes at longer odds I’ll go with stablemate WHATDEAWANT who should have been trained to the minute for this as he is owned by race sponsors

***

210 Brown Advisory Novices Chase
Bravemansgame looks the one to beat coming in but I am a little concerned he may be best on flatter courses. His old foe Ahoy Senor aso goes into unknown territory on this undulating course. L’HOMME PRESSE does have the course experience and is marginal selection – he is unproven over this trip though and that diminishes confidence
Note he won the race I mentioned earlier in Ultima preview so there may be knock on effect from efforts there

****

250 Coral Cup
Very difficult handicap and likelihood has to be an Irish raider will improve from what we have seen this season to prevail. I don’t know which one though…maybe Drop the Anchor at a push!
DANS LE VENT is too exposed I think to win but is so consistent in this grade I can easily see him reaching top 6/7 with those firms who pay those places. Expect him to be delivered late up the hill under regular pilot Isobel Williams – the two have had a fine partnership this season and he could well be creeping into the frame again at a big price

***

330 Queen Mother Champion Chase
If Energumene couldnt beat SHISHKIN at Ascot, I cant see how he will here. Shishkin is unbeaten at the festival and rightly an odds on favourite. I’ll be shocked if he gets beat

****

410 Cross Country Chase
Never a race I get too involved in. It would be great to see Tiger Roll win on his swansong. SHADY OPERATOR has always performed well in a Punchestown race which was invariably a key trial for this and would be my each way pick with firms offering 4 places

****

450 Grand Annual Hcap
Another tough handicap. SKY PIRATE is 4lb higher than when winning last year but the nature of this race suits him well with likely strong pace allowing him to creep in late. I don’t see him being far away again and is over a stone better off with Before Midnight who beat him here before Christmas. Another small stakes race though

****

530 Champion Bumper
We have two supposed superstars from Ireland here in Facile Vega and American Mike. I can’t tell you which is best and won’t be getting involved. Of the others I do like OUR JESTER as a horse going forward. He’d be the one I would be considering in each way multis on the day with firms paying 4 places

****

Good luck to all over the meeting with whatever you back. I’ll be back with picks for days 3 and 4 on Wednesday evening once all final declarations are in

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 14, 2022 in Uncategorized

 

Grand National 2021

08 Apr

After Covid forced the abandonment of last year’s Grand National it’s great to see National Hunt racing’s greatest spectacle back this weekend

As with previous years I’ve picked out the key stats which have helped to find the winner in the past and they can be seen in table form below – Age, Experience, Weight, Number of Runs etc all having a bearing

With the age factor it’s worth noting that while 8yos used to have a bit of a disadvantage there have now been 3 winners from that age group in recent years. It’s therefore worth bearing in mind that is less of a negative than it used to be

This could be to do with the fences getting easier – something that along with better ground would assist higher weighted horses.

Ground at the moment would appear to be Good to Soft at time of writing (Thursday afternoon) with watering being done to keep it at that kind of level. Soft ground looks highly unlikely this year

Onto this year’s field and here is the table with stats applied – and some extra comments for each runner

GRAND NATIONAL 2021TOTAL PTSWEIGHT PTSSTAMINA PTSAGE PTSRuns this season 
Magic of Light10st 13lbs103322Excellent 66/1 2nd in this race 2019 – until then had looked doubtful stayer. Below form in her last race at Cheltenham Festival 
Acapella Bourgeois10st 12lbs103322Front runner and 3rd behind Burrows Saint in 2019 Irish National 
Potters Corner10st 6lbs103322 Lots of solid stamina form in past but preparation this year has hardly been smooth and form level needs to pick up a lot
Cloth Cap10st 5lbs103322Scottish national performance in 2019 gives him the stamina nod here. Much improved this term with front running performances and officially a stone well in after his last win 
Yala Enki11st 3lbs92322Fell at course last time. Gets no respite from handicapper for consistency – soft ground would suit
Ballyoptic11st 1lb 92322Out of form this season and mark is high on what he has done. Has fallen twice over this course. 2nd in Scottish national 2018 being theonly  positive for him here
Takingrisks10st 7lbs93312Admirably tough 12yo. Winner of Scottish national in 2019 (Cloth cap 3rd). Highest ever mark here. Might need softer ground to exploit his stamina 
Lord Du Mesnil10st 6lbs93312Lots of stamina but all best form at Haydock and in soft ground
Lake View Lad11st83122Brian Hughes gave him great ride to win at course earlier in year – but fences were removed by low sun then and they were on Mildmay course. Stamina to prove here 
Burrows Saint10st 13lbs83302Irish national winner back in 2019 and obviously trained with this race in mind ever since. Not quite as experienced over fences as would be ideal and all form is on RH tracks. Age 8 isnt quite ideal but as a French bred that isnt so bad as they progress earlier
Talkischeap10st 12lbs83320Impressive winner of Whitbread/bet 365 Trophy in 2019 but yet to return to same level of form 
Anibale Fly10st 12lbs833205th and 4th here before off higher weight after good performances in Gold Cup. Form has dropped this season markedly 
Kimberlite Candy10st 10lb 83320One prep run not ideal. Has the back form to be considered but that was off much lower weights and not sure he is a 153 horse. May also need soft ground
Any Second Now10st 9lbs83122Ted Walsh often tries unconventional prep on shorter trip (Papillon/Seabass). Stamina is ? 
Jett10st 7lbs83122 Seems fully exposed. Main positive would be having the rider with best record over national fences on top
Minellacelebration10st 5lbs83122Has had wind surgery since last run. Unseated rider over course in December. Seems to be in grip of handicapper now with a 148 rating 
Some Neck (1st reserve)10st 1lbs83122Cross Country specialist now 
Alpha Des Obeaux10st 9lbs73022Form going downwards 
Shattered Love10st 7lbs73022Not as good as he was and all best form is at 2,5 miles 
Milan Native10st 6lbs73112Hard to fancy orecent form off this mark 
Discorama10st 6lbs73310Surprising to see he is still only 8. Stamina proven but prep has been far from ideal this season
Vieux Lion Rouge10st 5lbs73112No horse has more experience on these fences but he has failed for stamina every time in this race. If it were shorter he would be a player. Top 10 finish must be very likely though 
Cabaret Queen10st 5lbs73022Pulled up last time. Looks badly handicapped 
Sub Lieutenant10st 3lbs73112In veteran stage now and all best form at much shorter trips
Double Shuffle10st 2lbs73022two runs over course don’t inspire 
Blaklion10st 2lbs731124th in 2017 when gfavourite (looked to fail through stamina). Not shown anything like same level of form in last few years
Secret Reprieve (2nd reserve)10st 1lbs733-12Welsh national winner but he remains very inexperienced and likely too young for this race
Definitly Red11st 1lb62112Fancied for this race in previous years but form is on the wane now at age of 12. Bets chances appear to have gone 
Tout Est Permis10st 12lbs63012fell in last race – not ideal coming here. Stamina also a big ?
Mister Malarky10st 12lbs63012For horse who looks to have stamina it’s interesting to see he has never won beyong 3 miles which is negative 
Balko Des Flos10st 9lbs63-122Form going downwards 
Ok Corral10st 8lbs63120Fragile sort
Class Conti10st 6lbs63-122Stamina a big negative
Canelo10st 4lbs63012Held by Takingrisks on Doncaster form – and doesn’t have the proven stamina that one has for this test 
Give Me A Copper10st 4lbs63120Pulled up last time and no recent form to recommend 
Hogan’s Height10st 3lbs63120Has won over track but much shorter trip
Minella Times10st 3lbs53-112 Rachael Blackmore’s mount – this will ensure a popular pick but will keep price low. Stamina has to be a doubt
Ami Desbois10st 2lbs53020 Falls badly on two key stats
Chris’s Dream11st 7lbs40022Too many negative stats to consider
Bristol de Mai11st 10lbs30120Class horse but all best form comes at Haydock and in soft ground
The Long Mile10st 4lbs33-1-12Stamina and age stats totally against him
Farclas10st 3lbs33-1-12Previous Triumph Hurdle winner (like Tiger Roll)…but stamina and age stats all against him 
GRAND NATIONAL 2021       

This is how the points are given out:

Weight. ( W )
11 stone or less a big positive = 3pts
11st 1lb to 11st 6lb – less of chance but still not insurmountable (particularly on decent ground) = 2pts
Over 11st 6lbs = 0 pts (1 on good ground)
Stamina (S)
It may seem obvious but there was a train of thought once that 2.5 mile horses were ideal for this (largely stemming from Fred Rimell/Gay Trip victory). There is nothing to back this up nowadays.
A winner over more than 3 miles is necessary so we give 1pt for that
Not having won over at least 3 miles in hurdles or chases is such a big negative to me that it carries MINUS 1pt
Proven stamina in a competitive National like Handicap (3ml 4fur or more) =3pts
Age (and Chasing experience) (A)
9,10 or 11 is the desired age bracket to have here and gets 2pts.
Since the turn of century (and not counting Red Marauder’s heavy ground freak race) that covers all but one winner (Bindaree 8yo in 2002), and all but 5 winners since 1980.
Those 8yos that have prevailed did have chasing experience on their side so get 1 pt if they have had at least 10 runs over the big fences
Streetwise 12yos can also triumph occasionally but would need a previous run over the National fences to get 1pt
A 7yo hasn’t won since 1940 so that has to be a big negative and gets MINUS 1pt. There have been 30 to try in this millennium and the best was Big Fella Thanks with 6th place in 2009.
13 and 14yos don’t often run and their price would reflect that they are past their prime. No points for them but don’t be surprised with a top 10 finish as National veterans Swing Bill and Hello Bud have done in the last 3 years
(Vics Canvas since finished 3rd as 13yo and arguably an unlucky loser after atrocious mistake at Bechers first time round)
Runs This Season (R)
When you realise that none of the last 24 winners came into the race without having at least 3 runs it has to be important and so is given 2pts. A run since Christmas is also important so we’ll take off a point for any that haven’t
These I think are the key statistics for which to base a scoring system and I will apply to each horse below. A total score of 10 pts is possible for the ‘ideal stats fit’

We can see that 4 horses have the perfect fit from these rationale

CLOTH CAP

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS

POTTERS CORNER

MAGIC OF LIGHT

From this list I must admit I find it hard to fancy the last two named on recent form. Magic of Light ran very poorly at Cheltenham and I am reluctant to back mares when they start to show a drop in form. She didn’t seem to enjoy being taken on in the lead there and she will get a lot more of that in this field. If she could replicate her 2019 second place she has every chance but I think she will struggle

Likewise, Potters Corner really hasn’t looked the same horse this season who previously displayed buckets of stamina to win Welsh and Midlands Grand Nationals. Christian Williams is a greta trainer but this would be a tour de force to get this one back – and softer ground would have undoubtedly been much better for him

This leaves us with two who I do like far more.

CLOTH CAP’s chance is obvious but the market knows that too with only around 4/1 on offer currently. I fully expect that to get a bit bigger come Friday night/Saturday morning to tempt in more money. His Scottish National 3rd in 2019 gives him the big stamina tick and his form this season has gone to a new level. His last win was so much of an improvement that if the handicapper had been able to adjust his weight he would be carrying a stone more here. Soft ground would be a negative for this one but the weather gods seem to be in his favour this year. Tom Scudamore has formed a great partnership with this horse this season and will never have a better chance to add to the Scudamore roll of honour in this race. His father Peter never managed to win but go back to 1959 and you will find grandfather Michael winning it on Oxo!

The negative (if there is one) is that he seems to like to front run and that means he’ll be right at the forefront of the traditional cavalry charge to the first fence. That’s when mistakes happen and I’ll be much happier when he has cleared a few as can see some early danger there. He has run in two similar first fence charge races without a problem (Hennessy Gold Cup/ladbroke Trophy and Scottish national) so fingers crossed he is streetwise to this

The last time I can remember a horse coming into this race so short and so well in was also a first fence victim – Double Thriller in 1999). Note that one drifted out to 7/1 on the day after being much shorter as the betting public considered him too short to bet

Fingers crossed he gets over the early obstacles and then gets into a nice rhythm up front – he’l be tough to beat if he does

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS is a much better price and also a front runner (hopefully these two don’t take each other on and cut each other’s throats). I was slightly surprised to find him coming out as a perfect fit but had forgotten his excellent 3rd in 2019 Irish Grand National (behind Burrows saint). His defeat of Burrows Saint in February confirms his well being and he has the same mark here (so is also a few pounds well in). He is definitely an outsider to keep on side

Notes on all runners can be found on the table but three others of note to take out:

BURROWS SAINT (already mentioned) does have a lot of attributes needed but falls slightly short on age (as mentioned I think we can rule out that one – especially with early maturing French bred horses). His lack of chasing experience (only 9 runs) is a little more concerning – and with all his form on RH tracks we have another small seed of doubt

I have backed this one at bigger prices ante post and wouldn’t be surprised to see him win – he has looked such an obvious type since his Irish national win. However, on his form with Acapella Bourgeois on his last run there shouldn’t be the difference in price between them.

TAKINGRISKS would be a perfect fit if not for the fact he is now a 12yo and running off his highest ever mark. The 2019 Scottish National winner took his form to an even higher level last time and he certainly won’t be wanting for stamina. If anything he might have need slower ground to balance things out against some quicker types. Nicky Richards is not one to overrace his horses and he knows what is need to win this race.It may just be a step too far to win but I couldn’t put anyone off a small each ay bet on him with extra places being offered.

Lastly, there is no more experienced runner in this race over these fences than Vieux Lion Rouge. Stamina has just got in his way in the past but he’s won over the course twice over shorter trips. I can’t see him winning but if any firms offer Top 10 finish prices (and base them on outright odds) – he would be the one I would be most checking the price on

Suggestions from me then are:

CLOTH CAP (sorry not too original there)

ACAPELLA BOURGEOIS

Burrows Saint and Takingrisks wouldn’t be far behind and for those who like to back several in the race to consider

Note that SOME NECK and SECRET REPRIEVE are both reserves. Neither will get into the race unless another horse drops out before 1pm on Friday

**

Good luck with whatever you back – and let’s hope all the runners and riders come back safe this year

Paul

(For those wanting to experience the National fences before, Friday’s Topham Trophy over a shorter trip is an equally exciting race to watch. My shortlist here is:

 Huntsman Son (will love good ground – should get a hold up ride).

 Ravenhill Road (talented but injury prone family that I think also need good ground…this one has a lot of class when everything falls right for him). This stable with its showjumping background should have him primed for these fences

Storm Control.  Ran a great race at Cheltenham with some bold jumping frontrunning. Shorter trip here is no negative and if he jumps the same up front he will be a sight to watch here. Kerry Lee wouldn’t be running him unless she though he was over his Cheltenham exertions

 
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Posted by on April 8, 2021 in Uncategorized

 

Cheltenham Festival 2021 – Gold Cup day

18 Mar

Day 3 saw some exceptional front running performance from Allaho and Flooring Porter. Prominent racers seemed to do pretty well all round and it’s an angle to keep in mind for the final day.

Rachael Blackmore is proving the star in the saddle at the Festival this week. Expect anything she rides on the final day to be well supported now

Thoughts for the final day of this year’s Festival:

1.20 Triumph Hurdle

Nothing has impressed me more in the juvenile division this year than ZANAHIYR’s success at Fairyhouse in November and I can’t oppose him here. He has had a break since Christmas (probably to avoid a hard race on deep ground) and if he is in the same form I’ll think he win this handsomely. The addition of a first-time tongue tie is something I wasn’t expecting and does plant one small question mark in my brain.

Alan King has had a great record in this race before and much of his quote of TRITONIC being his highest rated flat horse to go hurdling has been made. I find that a bit odd having seen his 7lb higher rated Scarlet Dragon hurdling before. His rating of 99 on the Flat makes him a decent type alright but I don’t think I’ve seen anything from him to make me think he will upset the favourite here

QUILIXIOS appeals more for second place but might have been suited more than the rest by a test on softer ground

SELECTION is ZANAHIYR though I think the value in his price has dried up now

***

1.55 County Hcap Hurdle

The Skelton team have a great record in this competitive race and field THIRD TIME LUCKI here. That record has undoubtedly forced his price down and I don’t see him in the same light as some previous Skelton winners who came into this on better handicap marks

I thought that Betfair Hurdle form would stand up better this week than it has and that now counts against FIFTY BALL (2nd), EDWARDSTONE (3rd), THYME WHITE (9th) and MILKWOOD (11th).

I think MILKWOOD will run better here as he may have needed that race after a break and should get the drier conditions he loves. However I do feel that a flat track may suit him better and the uphill finish is against him

GANAPATHI is dropped down considerably in trip and far too short for me at the front of the market (he does remian unexposed). Elsewhere from Ireland. YOU RAISED ME UP is progressive and breeding suggests the better ground should be right up his street. The handicapper hasn’t been kind with an 11lb hike from his latest Irish winning mark. Right at the bottom, CAPTAIN KANGAROO also appeals as the type who might benefit from better ground. He’ll have to brush up his jumping at this level but has a win over Wednesday’s Bumper second Klicruit if you go back on his CV.

In a very hard race, I will take a chance with a big outsider in LE PATRIOTE. At 9 years old he isn’t exactly under the radar but after a chasing spell this season he is back hurdling on a 5lb lower mark than when last in this sphere. That was when he was in last year’s Champion Hurdle and although finishing in the rear he didn’t run at all badly for a 100/1 shot

Good ground is most definitely a plus for this horse and he did win the competitive Swinton Hurdle off a 3lb higher mark in 2019. He also has winning form at this course. His trainer, Dr Newland is no fool in this sort of race and the 7lb claim from Cillin Leonard is no disadvantage in a race like this where every pound counts

RECOMMENDATION

A very tricky race but I’m happy to take a punt on LE PATRIOTE each way at 40/1+ with up to 7/8 places available if you shop around

***

2.30 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

Usually this is an attritional race and the best one to slog it out takes the prize. There is no standout performer here this year reflected in the fact that the top 8 rated runners sit within 4lbs of each other on official ratings. Additionally all of them have been performing on softer surfaces than they will see here so it’s a bit of guesswork who will come out best.

STATTLER came out ahead of FAKIERA and VANILLIER in the main Irish trial but that was over a shorter trip and the way FAKIERA finished suggested a reversal of form wouldn’t be a shock. VANILLIER ran badly that day but did have an excuse and wouldn’t be out of this either at big odds.

ADRIMEL impressed me most of the home contingent when stepped up in trip at Warwick giving the distinct impression he was just doing enough – a good trait to have in this race. He has only raced on soft but over this longer trip the ground may come to his aid if he can handle it.

STREETS OF DOYEN has course winning form and although a few more pounds behind on ratings he is the one who will know will appreciate the faster going

CONCLUSION

This is a very open race and hard to rule out anything completely as we are largely in the dark as to who will prosper or fall on the Spring ground. No Bet

****

3.05 WellChild Cheltenham Gold Cup

The Blue Riband event would be so much easier to unravel if the ground were soft

I think the best performance in this race of recent years came from NATIVE RIVER back in 2018 and would be backing him again if by some miracle there was a deluge

On good ground he is likely to get outpaced but his presence at the front will still ensure a good pace with him and FRODON putting the others to the sword in the jumping department

FRODON would be a highly popular winner under regular rider Bryony Frost. He can operate on good ground but he is best when he can get all of his own way up front. He might not get that here with Native River in the race

AL BOUM PHOTO has won this race the last twice. Somehow he has never gripped the public imagination despite this feat. It could be that we just don’t see him on the racecourse enough but I also think having such a weird name doesn’t help his cause!

He again comes here with a strong chance but there is also a suspicion here he might want the ground to be a little bit softer

A PLUS TARD is going to be very popular and has good past form at the Festival at shorter trips. Rachael Blackmore being on board is what is keeping his price low now. Again I wonder here if he’s prefer a little bit more cut.

MINELLA INDO (rejected by Blackmore), unexposed ROYALE PAGAILLE and most definitely SANTINI are others whose best form has been on softer

I think on pure ability, CHAMP would come out top of the tree here. His preparation for this was unconventional in a two mile race but he did give Sceau Royal a scare there and that one was very unlucky not to go close in Wednesday’s Champion Chase. If that has taught him to jump at speed I think he is the horse to beat here but he has often been one who looks to lose concentration and can make mistakes. He can’t afford to do that here

Lastly, I have to mention LOSTINTRANSLATION. He was 3rd here last year and is the horse I think who should be best suited by the ground. The trouble is his form since then has not come anywhere close to the same level. Tizzard runners haave just started to come form this week after a dismal year – but it takes a leap of faith to hope he can come back to his best here

CONCLUSION

If he can get a blemish free jumping round I think CHAMP can win….but that is a big if! FRODON’s chances would increase greatly if NATIVE RIVER wasn’t in the race so take note if the drying ground doesn make the latter a Non Runner. For a real long priced punt then LOSTINTRANSLATION may be worth a tickle in the hope he does come back to his best form

As much as I am looking forward to this race, it won’t be because I have a heavy financial interest in it

***

3.40 Foxhunters Chase

The last race being run this week that would normally be the domain of Amateur riders. I would, in previous editions,  normally just be looking at Jamie Codd, Derek O’ Connor, Patrick Mullins et al mounts here as would expect them to judge the pace best. With professionals now on board we can expect a more evenly run contest

BOB AND CO is the main UK hope but I cant erase his performance from my head at warwick last year. His owner/rider couldn’t control him then and he was pulled up. He hasn’t been beaten since (in small fields) but there is a quirk there for sure.

RED INDIAN has good form but has shown too much of a liking for Soft ground for me. Favourite BILLAWAY also has jumping issues which puts me off him

My pick is LATENIGHTPASS who surprised many when winning a very strongly run Warwick race last time from the front. Warwick is more of a speed course than here but it has some of the stiffest fences in the UK and if you can jump there you should be fine here.  This one also has course winning form and more importantly he is back on the ground that seems to suit him best

He is another who has shown wayward tendencies in the past but I didn’t see any of that last time. He’s a prominent racing type and that seems to be a positive in recent days

RECOMMENDATION

Back LATENIGHTPASS each way with 4 places offered by most firms – 25/1 looks a value price to me here

****

The last two races on the card aren’t really tempting me from a betting angle

4.15 Mrs Paddy Power Mares Chase

A new race at the Festival and,  for me, quite a disappointing turnout. ELIMAY gave Allaho more of a race than anything managed to in the Ryanair today and her price tumbled on the back of his win. She is the standout contender and should win on form but a word of caution – she is quite a small mare and these fences will provide a test for her

Stablemate COLREEVY is the obvious danger but has to give weight away all round in a strange penalty structure for this race (why any ‘Championship’ race should have penalties baffles me)

4.50 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap

The ‘getting out ‘ race is far too difficult for me

GENTLEMAN DE MEE headsthe market and is totally unexposed. He could be thrown in but its impossible to tell on his form

LANGER DAN was very impressive at Sandown last weekend but that was over a shorter trip and on desperate ground.

There are several others at the head of the market who may be ahead of their marks and watching the betting to see where the money goes should be the best guide here

****

Thanks for reading the final post of the week and hope it’s been a successful one for all. I will be back again with the usual Grand National post the day before the race

Paul

 
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Posted by on March 18, 2021 in Uncategorized

 
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