Another Cheltenham Festival comes to an end.
This has seemed a bit of an attritional one at times but the blog recommendations finished with a flourish on Day 4 with Rock The World winning the finale in good style
The day started with selection Ex Patriot running a smashing race in the first and he looked a possible winner approaching the last. He couldn’t come up the hill as well as the winner but it should be remembered he broke loose before the start. I’d be inclined to rate him as the 2nd best horse in the race behind Defi Du Seuil and if he gets similar good ground at Aintree he’s be one to keep on the right side of. That track’s less testing nature should suit him ideally
L’Ami Serge and Wonderful Charm came agonisingly close to winners. I think Katy Walsh might have been a bit too busy marking her main market rival On the Fringe on the latter in the Foxhunters – both had a lot of ground to make up from 3 out and it just proved too much to pull back stablemate Pacha Du Polder
Penhill’s win in the Albert Bartlett showed the skills of Willie Mullins to a tee. He would never have been a thorough stayer on the flat but his strong pulling tendencies have been rectified. I remember Mullins doing similarly with Simenon who went on to be high-class on the flat. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Penhill doing the same – we could see him at Royal Ascot in the summer?
The real one to take out of the Albert Bartlett for me though was the 2nd Monalee. I’m sure he would have been hard to beat on softer going and he should be a very potent force in the novice chasing ranks next season. He’s be at the top of my list as next year’s RSA winner right now
Sizing John put stamina doubts to bed in the centrepiece and was a decisive winner in the Gold Cup. Native River made it a test as expected but didn’t jump quite as well as I’ve seen before – he put in a lot of short ones. Softer ground would have helped but he’s still a young horse and will have other chances in this race.
Hopefully both make it back next year. If Thistlecrack can return from injury and Might Bite and Yorkhill can join them it could be quite a year. (Jessica Harrington also has another very strong potential candidate to add to that list in Our Duke who purposely missed the Festival)
I hope everyone’s had an enjoyable week. A full synopsis of results for the 4 days is listed below. There were a few near misses but ultimately a decent profit on recommendations
The blog will be back for its usual Grand National focus the day before the big race (Sat April 8th). It will be hard to match the success of last year’s race but I can but try!
Thanks for reading throughout the week
Paul
Summary of recommendations :
Day 1
1pt ew Singlefarmpayment 15/2 (1/4 odds 12345) – 2nd (+0.88 pts)
2pts ew Apples Jade 9/2 (1/4 odds 123) – won (+11.25 pts)
2pts win Edwulf 11/2 – lost (-2pts)
1pt win Champers on Ice 8/1 – lost (-1pt)
Day 1 performance – Stakes 9pts Returns 18.13 pts
Day 2
1pt ew Shattered Love 25/1(1/5 odds 123) – lost (-2pts)
1.5 pts win Whisper 7/1 – lost (-1.5 pts)
0.75 pts win Our Kaempfer 16/1 (lost -0.75 pts)
1.5 pts ew Peregrine Run 10/1 (1/4 odds 12345) (lost -3pts)
0.5pts ew Simply Ned 66/1 (1/5 odds 123) (lost -1pt)
0.5pts ew Simply Ned 66/1 (1/4 odds 123) (lost -1pt)
0.3 pts ew Percy Street 33/1 (1/4 odds 1234) (lost -0.6pts)
Day 2 performance – Stakes 9.85pts Returns 0
Day 3
2pts ew Top Notch 4/1 (1/4 odds 123) 2nd (level)
0.75 pts ew Barney Dwan 20/1 (1/4 odds 12345) 2nd (+3pts)
0.5 pts ew Zarkandar 28/1 (1/4 odds 123) lost (-1pt)
1.5 pts ew Thomas Crapper 12/1 (1/4 odds 1234) 4th (+3pts)
0.5 pts ew Toe The Line 33/1 (1/4 odds 123) lost (-1pt)
0.75 pts ew Whats Happening 14/1 (1/4 odds 1234) lost (-1.5 pts)
Day 3 performance ; Stakes 12pts Returns 14.5 pts
Day 4
0.5pts ew Forth Bridge 33/1 (1/4 odds 123) NR (loser with ante post rules -1pt)
0.25pts ew Ex Patriot 40/1 (1/4 odds 123) lost (-0.5pts) – anyone getting 4 places would have had a return
0.5pts ew Wait For Me 18/1 (1/4 odds 12345) lost (-1pt)
0.5pts ew L’Ami Serge 33/1 (1/4 odds 12345) 2nd (+3.62 pts)
1.5 pts ew Native River 4/1 (1/4 odds 123) 3rd (level)
1pt ew Native River 5/1 (1/5 odds 1234) 3rd (level)
0.75 pts win More of That 14/1 lost (-0.75 pts)
1.5 pts win Wonderful Charm 11/2 lost (-1.5 pts)
0.25 pts ew Salsify 40/1 (1/5 odds 1234) lost (-0.5pts)
0.5pts ew Rather Be 14/1 (1/4 odds 12345) lost (-1pt)
1pt ew Rock The World 14/1 (1/4 1234) won (+17.5 pts)
Day 4 performance; Stakes 14.25pts Returns 29.12 pts
For the full 4 day festival the total performance for the recommended bets is
Stakes
45.1 pts
Returns
61.75pts
Profit
16.65pts (36.9%)
thefinalfence 