thefinalfence

Heavy rain is expected at Cheltenham later tonight which makes life very difficult to do any kind of analysis. I wouldn’t want to be in Tom Segal’s Pricewise shoes this evening when he has to put forward selections not knowing if the ground will stay good or turn to soft tomorrow.
Until we are armed with this knowledge I won’t be making much in the way of selections until tomorrow morning when the blog will be updated but will put some initial thoughts down below

*MORNING UPDATE*

5mm of rain overnight will ease the ground a little but not enough to inconvenience too many – dry at moment but rain could still threaten

Day 3 didn’t provide any winners. Saphir Du Rheu, Ma Filleule and Rawnaq all contributed some place money to the coffers by reaching the frame. 7 pts were returned on day of the race bets (loss of 6.5 pts) and there was a 2 pt profit from the Ante Post portfolio.
A run down of the final day’s card:
1.30 Triumph Hurdle
¼ 123 generally available but in the good old days this was usually ¼ 1234 and a few firms are starting to offer that
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/13:30/winner
Peace and Co has looked the star in this division this season and is justifiably favourite. His last win over Karezak came in a very slowly run event and it will be a world away from the fast pace tomorrow. I have a slight niggle that he may not stay as well as others up the final hill in a strongly run event and will be looking to oppose tomorrow at under 3/1. There were similar musings from several Preview nights and I wonder if the bookies will try to get him tomorrow. It could be a case of overdoing it if they do and if he were to get to 4/1 then he might be worth a dabble.
If the rain doesn’t have much effect I think stablemate Hargam has a lot going for him. Both he and the favourite have annihilated Starchitect this season and that one did no harm to the form with an excellent run here earlier in the week. It it does turn soft then Hargam’s claims will lessen- he can cope with it but seems a much better horse on a decent surface.
Beltor has looked impressive in two starts but his form lines weren’t advertised quite so well in the Fred Winter race.
Top Notch looks to be Simon Munir’s second string but could become a much stronger player if the heavens open.
The aforementioned Karezak has been beaten by many of these this season but always performed with great credit. I don’t think he’ll mind what ground it is and I really think he is crying out for the strongly run race he’ll get here. He’s the interesting one for me if firms offer a good enough price with 4 places as he is so consistent at this level

*MORNING UPDATE*

Hargam still a big player under current conditions but the rain will bring stamina into play more.The firms offering 1/4 1234 are where I’ll be looking and Karezak will be hard to keep out of the finish for me.

Recommendation

0.75pts ew Karezak @20/1 (365, Stan James – both offering the extra place concession)

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2.05 County Hurdle 2 miles
¼ odds 12345 should be available here and has to be used in such a competitive race
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/14:05/winner
Quite a compact field in terms of ratings for this this year and only 12lbs separating them all. It doesn’t quite have the class at the top pf the field as per usual and although the stats favour lower weights I don’t think that might matter as much as they are all so close.
Quick Jack is being backed as if he’s the handicap plot that many expect.
If the rain doesn’t come my eyes are drawn to top weight Hawk High (handicap winner here last year) and Commissioned (god only knows why they ran him last time when they already knew he hated soft ground!).
It’s wait and see for those two and back to the drawing board if the heavens do open

*MORNING UPDATE*

What rain that has come may still be enough to scupper Commissioned’s chances but Hawk High can still operate on Good to Soft (any more rain might be a problem). Lots of Irish raiders who could have been laid out for this – I don’t think Quick Jack is that well handicapped – but Noel Meade’s pair Rich Coast and Waxies Dargle are both of interest at over 20/1

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2.40 Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle 3ml
All ¼ 123 for now but I would be surprised if someone went an extra place as it much the most competitive of the novice hurdles this week
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/14:40/winner
We have Blaklion Ante Post for the blog already here and I doubt he’ll be affected by whatever the rain does. His two Challow Hurdle conquerors both ran well on Wednesday and he’ll be much better suited by this 3 miles. I think he’ll reverse Doncaster form with Caracci Apache now he’s back on this course. His price hasn’t changed much since I put him up and some 14/1 is available – I think that price is very still
Value At Risk is the main danger I think and he might prefer a bit of rain. He looks like he’s crying out for this 3 mile trip and his course experience here in January is a positive.
No More Heroes doesn’t have the same previous run here and wasn’t right when beaten last time. He really needs the ground to soften up a fair bit for me – but if that does happen he does have the class to be involved.
I’m less convinced by Black Hercules’s claims and how they relate to his price here. He looks a real stayer but hasn’t got the strength of form that other Mullins novices have had this week (its that stable connection that makes his price so low for me)
Previously Recommended
1pt ew Blaklion 12/1

*MORNING UPDATE*

The overnight rain will be a bonus to Value At Risk and I’ll be backing up the Blaklion bet with him (who also won’t mind the ease in going). No More Heroes may need further rain yet.

Recommendation 1pt ew Value At Risk 11/1 (Paddy Power)

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3.20 Gold Cup 3ml 2fur
The piece de resistance of the whole meeting and quite possibly the trickiest conundrum all week
A few firms already offering ¼ 1234 and I don’t blame them – if ever a non handicap needed it this would be it
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/15:20/winner
I don’t think I could really rule out any of the 16 likely runners with great confidence.
Silviniaco Conti is the form horse and if this race were run anywhere else might well be my pick. His record at Cheltenham (looked likely to win last season but didn’t get home) is a negative and will surely have me looking elsewhere for a pick. Quite what to pick is ground reliant though and for tomorrow! Previous good Festival or form on the course form is a must for me so ones I will likely be ruling out as well as the fav are Carlingford Lough and Djakadam, who both didn’t shine here last season

*MORNING UPDATE*

We will have a proper stamina test here with that extra bit of rain and Coneygree, Many Clouds and Silviniaco Conti all wanting to be prominent. I’d love to see Coneygree the novice do well but Gloria Victis and Lanzarote both paid the ultimate price for jumping into the top level too early in their chasing careers – above all I just hope he comes back safe! His jumping will put others under pressure early though. I’d be looking for something with proven course form that stays very well.

Holywell fits that bill and always comes to peak form at the Festival where he is 2/2. It’s no negative that he is ridden by Richie McLernon (rather than AP McCoy who rode him in both of those victories). Jumping is a slight concern at this high level and I think he could be a drifter in the market today. 12/1 at the moment won’t drag me in but if he goes 16/1 with a firm offering 1234 I think I’ll bet.

Last years winner Lord Windermere won’t want too much extra rain but has also a great Festival record and has become too big at 20/1. I thought he ran a great trial last time at Leopardstown before condition told and will have be trained to be at his peak for this again.

Smad Place is the other at a big price. On this season’s form he’s up against it but he has consistently performed well at Grade 1 events at the festival and I expect him to be staying on at the finish.

Recommendations

0.5pts ew each

Lord Windermere 20/1

Smad Place 33/1

both with Skybet offering 1/4 1234

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4.00 Foxhunters 3ml 2fur
¼ 1234 offered by some here – others just first 3
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/16:00/winner
You really need a good knowledge of the Point to Point scene to have an opinion here – and I’m lacking a bit in that department. Unlikely I’ll be having any substantial bets here.
There will be a big difference in the abilities of the amateur jockeys competing and that can’t be ignored .
Salsify is a previous winner on the comeback trail from injury. On The Fringe has been placed in this but slightly disappointing given his reputation on both occasion. Paint The Clouds looks bets of the home trained team and has a previous course win albeit over hurdles.All meet the criteria of having a top Amateur on board
Carsonstown Boy was second last year (On The Fringe 3rd) so is interesting at bigger prices. From a jockey perspective I can’t ignore Aerial either who was a decent 150+ horse when trained by Paul Nicholls and has won his last two Points.
Any further PTP insight is greatly appreciated here though!

*MORNING UPDATE*

The fact they have form in this race, have good jockeys and the extra place concession all prompt me to these two each way as I’ll be amazed if neither hit a place at very least

Recommendations

1pt ew On The Fringe 8/1

0.5pts ew Carsonstown Boy 14/1 (unfortunately Pricewise took the 20s last night)

Both fairly widely avaialble but it must be with one of the firms offering 1/4 1234

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Onto the two last handicaps – not races to be chasing losses on for sure
4.40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hcap Hurdle 2ml 4fur
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/16:40/winner
A Mullins trained /Gigginstown owned unexposed French import has won this twice in recent years (Don Poli and Sir Des Champs). Roi Des Francs has the same profile again and so is the obvious one to leap out – but not an attractive price as a result.
Killultagh Vic is interesting from the same stable off what could be a lenient mark

*MORNING UPDATE*

I think Killultagh Vic’s mark of 135 could be about 6-7lb les than it really should be and for that will be having an interest with Ladbrokes currently going well above the Betfair price

Recommendation

1pt ew Killultagh Vic 14/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 12345)

(This price disappeared within a few minutes of posting unfortunately but 12/1 still worth a bet if available)

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5.15 AP Mc Coy Grand Annual Chase 2ml
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-13-cheltenham/17:15/winner
This year named in honour of the retiring champion jockey. And that’s why his mount Ned Buntline is so short with bookies fearful of a plunge and a successful Festival send off.
I’m going to pass on this race for now and has have far too many still on the shortlist

NO BET

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Thanks for reading – and please check in tomorrow morning when hopefully we’ll know just what the forecast rain has done

Paul

Initial Bank 50pts

Current Balance 37.81pts

Ante Post Bets still to run 7pts

Day 4 bets 10.5 pts staked

A decent day for the blog today with Ante Post selection Windsor Park winning (advised at 12/1) and Southfield Theatre running a good second (advised 20/1) after making a bad mistake 4 out. If team Mullins had had their way and sent Don Poli to the 4 miler things could have been even better!
Day 2’s day of the race bets had no draws so there was a 6.5 pt loss there but the Ante Post picks returned 23 pts from 6 pts staked
Onto Day 3:
1.30 JLT Novices Chase 2ml 4fur

Generally ¼ odds 123 available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/13:30/winner
Only 4 runnings of the race doesn’t give us much data for stats.
Ptit Zig has been my long term fancy but it’s never ideal to come into a race such as this with a fall on the last start. That could have been a blessing in disguise as it saved him a hard race against some very useful types. He still remains the selection but is a bit too short a price to bet given that last blip
I certainly prefer him to Vautour whose priced is based on his hurdling form and the Mullins factor than what he has actually done over fences this season.
Apache Stronghold and Valseur Lido are closely matched this season and should be involved at the business end but the lack of course experience for the former is a slight negative.
Splash of Ginge proved he doesn’t operate on right handed tracks last time and will be much more at home again back here now. Nigel Twiston Davies has had big priced placed horses in this before and could well hit the frame again here at big odds
Selections; Ptit Zig (but No Bet), Splash of Ginge ew

*MORNING UPDATE*

The Tullow Tank’s defection leaves an eight runner field – hopefully no more come out or that 1/4 123 will revert to first two. Ptit Zig has gotten too big now at 5/1 with Paddy Power and rates a bet at that price (especuilly after reading in P Nicholls column on Betfair how many fences he has jumped at home since his last fall). Splash of Ginge also a bit big for me at 22/1

Recommendation

1.5pts ew Ptit Zig @5/1 (Paddy Power)

0.5pts ew Splash of Ginge 22/1 (Stan James)

2.05 Pertemps Final 3ml

Look for firms offering 1/4 12345 for sure in this very competitive handicap  http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/14:05/winner

Edeymi’s eyecatching run at Musselburgh has fooled no one and firms chalk him up at too low a price based on what they think was being hidden.
Last years close fourth Trustan Times gets similar condition again and could be involved again with ground conditions back in his favour
My eye is mainly drawn to a horse I have followed for some time and is totally unexposed at this trip – Brother Brian.
Stamina is unproven but he’s always looked like he needs further and his 3 runs over the course have all been ones for the notebook. Hughie Morrison has kept him off the track since a good run against much higher rated pair Rock on Ruby and Volnay De Thaix in December to preserve his mark. Softer ground in the interim probably wouldn’t have suited either
This is still a race where 5yos have a distinct disadvantage – a big negative for Dawalan especially as he has such a big weight.
Big Easy is consistent in this grade and should again run well – although he continues to have his mark raised without winning. A strong pace will suit and can see him having place claims.
Unique De Cotte won well at Ascot last time despite hardly hitting one hurdle right. I can’t help but think that flaw will be exposed more in the stronger pace and better ground he will encounter here.
Recommendation
1pt ew Brother Brian @12/1 (365, Stan James , Betfair Sportsbook all paying 5 places)

*MORNING UPDATE*

Brother Brian a victim of Pricewise so all 12/1 sadly now departed. 11/1 still available with 5 places on offer

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2.40 Ryanair Chase 2ml 5fur

1/4 odds 123 should be widely available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/14:40/winner
Not a beloved race of mine for picking winners in but that has to break one year.
A common theme amongst winners is that they were proven over 3 miles.
The Irish seem very bullish about Don Cossack’s chances this year and he has form over further. I’m not sure if he would have beaten Champgane Fever or not last time when that rival fell. It’s more of a worry that on his sole venture to the course he himself fell.
Johns Spirit was going as well as anything 3 out before stamina kicked in in the King George at Kempton over Christmas. He has some very good course form here to make him a contender but all of that form is on Cheltenham’s Old Course which is used earlier in the season – his New Course form (as he races over here is less impressive as stamina does become more of an issue.
It does appear strange that Balder Succes is a bigger price than Ma Filleule after he beat her last time but the latter is the selection.
Balder Succes does seem to thrive in smaller fields and his record of non completions at Cheltenham is a problem. He is also unproven over further
Ma Filleule on the other hand is proven at 3 miles and she really came to hand at this time last year. It was expected that she would improve a lot for last run and connections have talked her up very confidently since.

She is one of the best jumpers of a fence around (witness her win over Aintree’s National fences last season) and I am struggling to see her out of the frame
Recommendation
1.5 pts ew Ma Filleule @5/1 (general)

*MORNING UPDATE*

6/1 is available currently on Ma Filleule with Hills and Boyles but as she is trading less on Betfair don’t expect that price to hold for long

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3.20 World Hurdle 3ml

1/4 odds 123 generally available but a few firms offering a very decent 1/4 1234  http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/15:20/winner
The blog is already covered for this with our Ante Post pick Saphir Du Rheu taken at 8/1 and now disputing favouritism around 5/1.
I still make him the one to beat (he does have marginally the highest official rating in the field) with stablemate Zarkandar the principal threat.
Cole Harden is interesting at bigger prices now that he is back on decent ground and has had a win op since his last run
Previously recommended
2pts ew Saphir Du Rheu @8/1

*MORNING UPDATE*

Ladbrokes offering 1/4 1234 and 7/1 on both Saphir Du Rheu and Zarkandar as I speak – thats a full point bigger than Betfair and for anyone who can bet with them I’d advise to back both each way if you can get on with those terms

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4.00 2ml 5fur Hcap
Another competitive handicap- afew firms now offering an extra 5th place – hopefully more will follow http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/16:00/winner
The two at the top of the weights, Hunt Ball and Rajdhani Express have performed well in higher grades and have been waiting for this better ground. Hunt Ball hasn’t been given much help by the handicapper though and actually meets Rajdhani Express on 6lb worse terms (including riders claim) for 2.5 lengths beating in Dynaste’s Ryanair Chase last year.
Rajdhani Express is a previous Festival winner and his mark has dropped a little since an eyecatching run at Kempton last time. 3 miles on soft ground was too much for him but nothing was going as well up to the home straight and as long as that effort hasn’t taken it’s toll I see him as a big player here.

Attaglance is another with good festival form and must be considered – he has a 4lb higher mark than when narrowly touched off in the novices handicap last year. That rise in weights is just enough for me to hold back on him – he’s getting a bit too old to be progressing now.
The other for my shortlist is Irish novice Rawnaq who isn’t harshly treated off 141. He ran a great race in the Greatwood Hurdle here in 2013 and appears to need decent ground. Experience could be an issue but novices have a reasonable record in this race so it isn’t such a negative.
Buywise is perfectly capable of winning a contest like this but invariably makes a bad error in his races – it could prove costly again
Bookies are probably running a bit scared of offering a high price on David Pipe’s Monetaire given how easily the trainer won this race last year with Ballynagour
Recommendations
1pt ew Rajdhani Express @12/1 (Paddy Power/Betfair Sportsbook both paying 5 places)
0.5pts ew Rawnaq @25/1 (365, Paddy Power)

*MORNING UPDATE*

12/1 still vavailable for Rajdhani Express although he is slightly less right now on the Exchanges

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4.40 Kim Muir Hcap 3ml 2fur

http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-12-cheltenham/16:40/winner

Again a few offering an extra place and maybe more will follow
Amateur riders take charge here and experience in the saddle counts for a lot. I would be against any rider who is claiming weight.
I got a little excited at the 5 day entries when seeing Vintage Star had Nina Carberry jocked up. He’s one who really needs decent ground and was hinting at a form revival last time out now his mark is dropping.
Alas today I see that Nina has been required elsewhere and so my interest has waned a bit.
Champagne James has only had 3 chase starts and no experience at this distance. He is unexposed and looks a possible plot for this race from the Walsh family. Gold Bullet has a similar looking profile and a top amateur jockey on board
Masters Hill once had Gold Cup aspirations from Colin Tizzard but has started to rediscover his potential this season. He’s high enough in the weights but there’s still enough scope in his mark there to see him be a player.
The selection is another novice chaser who has crept in at the bottom of the weights.
The Ould Lad was considered good enough to contest todays RSA Chase but was presumably pulled out as he got in this race. He just needed the run last time but had an upward profile previously and ran well on this course in December.
Recommendation
0.75 pts ew The Ould Lad @16/1 (ladbrokes, Hills, BetVictor)

This price already under attack on Betfair so not sure it will hold out for long!

*MORNING UPDATE*

The price has held out on the selection despite dipping under 16/1 on Betfair last night – probably because Pricewise went elsewhere. He styas firm at that price on Betfair for now

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Thanks for reading once more and good luck!

Paul

Initial Bank 50 pts

Current Balance 35.31 pts

Ante Post Bets still to run 11pts

Day 3 Cheltenham Bets staked 13.5 pts

Day 1 was largely dominated by team Mullins (and his two jockeys Ruby Walsh and Paul Townend – much to my chagrin in the last – riding 5 of the days 7 winners)
The ante post selections in the blog today seemed to be too fond of 4th place scuppering the place angles of their respective bets.
It was left to the two selections in the last to return some investments and finish 2nd and 3rd.
The ground looked pretty quick today and it wouldn’t be a surprise if they watered this evening to prevent it getting too fast.
Assuming Best Odds Guaranteed on Generous Ransom who returned at 8/1 there were 9 pts staked on Tuesday’s day of race markets and 8.81 pts returned.
10 pts were lost on Ante Post wagers today but there are some nice positions to run on tomorrows cards which I will go through now:

1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle 2ml 5fur
Generally ¼ odds 123 available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/13:30/winner
Surprisingly this race has thrown up some future Champion Hurdle stars in the past despite being over a trip much further. The last two winners, Faugheen and The New One, being ideal cases in point.
It’s usually a competitive affair and despite having an open feel to it it’s a bit of a shock to see only a field of 10 lining up – 7 of which are officially rated within 9 lbs of one another.
It’s a race I have already covered Ante Post and have a good position on having put up Windsor Park at 12/1 a few weeks ago – he’s now around 5/1.
I do think his form behind Nichols Canyon is the strongest coming into this and that he should be the likelier one of the two to benefit from the better ground and the longer trip. I don’t think there’s any value left in him at current odds but am very happy with the position I have on this race.
Parlour Games has arguably the strongest form of the English but stats followers will be well aware that Challow Hurdle winners have a bad record in this. I also have a feeling he may need softer ground to be most effective. – a remark I could also give to Outlander who has no form on such a surface
At bigger odds, Ordo Ab Chao is the most appealing outsider (14/1 best with Paddy Power). He won what looked quite a strong novice event at the course in January and has been a little overlooked in the betting for me.
Verdict
No Bet for now at current odds
Previously advised
1pt ew Windsor Park 12/1

2.05 RSA Chase 3ml
Generally ¼ odds 123 available http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/14:05/winner

Another race where the blog has a strong Ante Post position, having tipped Southfield Theatre at 20/1 in January. He’s now around 6/1 and fits the stats perfectly as a 7yo – the age that has dominated this contest in recent years.
Only 3 horses aged under 7 have triumphed since the late 1970s, and one of them was a 5yo and getting a much bigger weight concession than is received by them now.
This is too big a negative for me to support the current favourite Don Poli, The Young Master, Wounded Warrior and Adriana des Mottes.(of these I do think Wounded Warrior could be one to follow in coming seasons and may be a touch overpriced but is more one for softer ground)
Kings Palace won’t have to worry about vying for the lead with Coneygree any more now that one has been rerouted to the Gold Cup. This will help his cause but it’s hard to forget how disappointing he was at last year’s Festival when strongly fancied for the Albert Bartlett hurdle.
If In Doubt did amazingly well to win a big handicap comfortably at Doncaster considering his jumping was so bad. It shows he must have an engine but this is a much harder course to jump around and it’s a bit of a surprise to see him turning up for this race.
I still think Southfield Theatre is the one to be with and is hard to see out of the frame given a clear round on ground that will suit him so well.
Having already got a very good price on him I don’t see the need to reinvest more but wouldn’t put anyone off supporting him with Paddy Power currently offering a tasty 15/2. Paul Nicholls has been putting him forward as one of his strongest chances of the week at recent Preview nights
So for blog purposes it’s No BET but for anyone not already on the selection I wouldn’t pass him by

Previously advised

1pt ew Southfield Theatre 20/1

1pt ew Champagne West 16/1 (NR and therefore a losing bet)

2.40 Coral Cup 2ml 5fur
Many firms offering ¼ odds 12345 and you really need that in this highly tricky handicap
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/14:40/winner
It’s hard to spot anything that looks well ahead of the handicapper. The obvious exception could be Paul Nicholls’ French import Aux Ptits Soins but its impossible to tell if his mark of 139 is a fair reflection of his form or not. It’s certainly a tough baptism to throw the horse into a race like this on his British debut.
I’m going for two small each way investments in the race.
I used to think 5yos had a disadvantage in this race but 3 have now won in the last 10 years so am less dissuaded. Baradari performed well at the Festival this year and looked an improved performer when tackling a longer trip last time. Venetia Williams must always be respected in any Cheltenham handicap and at 20/1 is worth a poke.
It’s anyone guess whether a Tony Martin runner is fancied or not – the market will surely tell us tomorrow if it is. Marinero had the misfortune to come up against Douvan earlier in the season but creeps in near the bottom of the weights here and with a decent 5lb claimer on board.
There’s always a good chance that anything sired by Presenting will be a better horse on good ground and that’s what sways me in his direction here as he is unexposed under the conditions tomorrow
Recommendations
0.5pts ew each
Baradari 18/1 Skybet ¼ odds 12345 (16/1 still acceptable as long as 5 places offered)
Marinero 16/1 Skybet, Bet Victor, Hills, Paddy Power – all offering a 5th place

*MORNING UPDATE*

An extra selection here which somehow eluded me last night. Dell’Arca was favourite for this race last year and was bang there at the last before finishing 5th. He is on a slightly higher mark but this year’s renewal doesnt look quite as strong in my mind. While he operates on soft ground his best form is at this track and on good ground which he gets here. I’m happy to ignore his last run at Taunton where he kept to the inner and the first two raced very wide – almost certainly he was on much worse ground.

Corals have upped the place game by offering 1/4 123456 and with that extra place thats where we will go for this one

Recommendation

0.75pts ew Dell’Arca 22/1 (Corals 1/4 odds 123456) – (25/1 is available for 1st 5 and acceptable also)

3.20 Queen Mother Champion Chase 2ml
Winston Churchill once said that Russia was ‘ a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma’ but I think that could easily apply to this race as well this year.
Sprinter Sacre is the best 2 mile chaser of the recent era but has only raced once since a heart problem was diagnosed. It’s just so impossible to gauge how good he still is and that makes it so difficult to back him or lay him. I do worry about him coming up the hill with all of the problems he has had
Sire De Grugy has also had injury issues but looked back to himself when winning at Chepstow last time. He won this race last year when everyone wanted to lay him as it was always known this was not his favourite course. It was a weaker race than this year though and this is a stiffer test
Dodging Bullets is this year’s form horse and like so many of Dubawi’s stock has improved with age. The issue with him is how his form in March has not matched up to earlier in the season in previous years.
Champagne Fever doesn’t seem to have a trip right now. His novice form last season doesn’t look quite strong enough for me and he has since been campaigned over as far as 3 miles.
Mr Mole is a reformed character this season having been the bad boy of jump racing in his younger days. He was presented with a win at Newbury after Sire De Grugy’s fall but won well enough to suggest he could have beaten him anyway.
Special Tiara is a fantastic jumping front runner who will ensure a proper pace here but may just be a little below this class when a stiff finish is involved. His presence in the race should help the one who I think is the best outsider Simply Ned – a horse who desperately needs a sound surface to show his best.
Like most of Nicky Richards’ he a slow developer but has a consistently upward profile through his carrer and is a fluent jumper. He will be sitting out the back in this race and picking up the pieces but I can see him running into the frame at decent odds. 20/1 is available and worth a small each way investment

Recommendation
0.5pts ew Simply Ned 20/1 (Betfred/Totesport)

4.00 Cross Country Chase 3ml 7fur
¼ odds 123 generally available
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/16:00/winner
Not run over conventional fences this race this spectacle is nice to watch but doesn’t tempt me for punting purposes. Experience over the course is usually a must but most of the field have that
It’s a definite NO Bet race for me

4.40 Fred Winter Hcap Hurdle 2ml
Generally ¼ odds 1234 offered here though it would be a surprise if a few didn’t offer 5 places come the day
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/16:40/winner
A great race for the blog last year selecting a 40/1 winner and a 20/1 place. Both were based on the previous record of decent flat performers in the race. Last year’s third Orgilgo Bay had the highest flat rating in the field at 103 and that stat has produced 3 winners in the past 10years.
Having had only the requisite 3 previous runs to gain a handicap mark has produced 70% of the winners in the same period.
We don’t have anything that has reached a rating of 90+ on the Flat competing this year but 6 horses have achieved ratings in excess of 80; Dai Bando, Arabian Revolution, Starchitect, Zarib, Mr Gallivanter and Sebastien Beach. Of these Arabian Revolution and Zarib have had just the three runs and they are the two for my shortlist.
Arabian Revolution was unlucky to come up against leading Triumph Hurdle contender Beltor on his second run and it was no disgrace for him to lose there when conceding 7lbs. Sebastien Beach was over 4 lengths back in 3rd that day and reopposes on only 1 lb better terms. John Ferguson’s charge has won well at Huntingdon since and the form has been boosted by the third in that race since (jockey Noel Fehily commented after the race that he had the class to run in Triumph). His hurdling form is all on soft ground but better going shouldn’t be a problem as has won on good ground on the flat. The booking of Barry Geraghty to ride is an obvious bonus.

Zarib also came up against a leading Triumph contender at Cheltenham in January when comfortably disposed of by Peace and Co. That was a very false run race and so hard to interpret the form literally. He won a very weak race easily since. I have the utmost respect for his up and coming trainer Dan Skelton and he doesn’t appear harshly handicapped on a mark of 133.
Of the two marginal preference goes to Arabian Revolution however as I see his form a little stronger and he appeals as a slightly stronger stayer
Recommendation
1pt ew Arabian Revolution 10/1 (general)

*MORNING UPDATE*

Alas only Racebets who I do not use have come up with 5 places so far. If anyone else does come up with 4 places and 12/1 Zarib I may well add him to the portfolio but nothing done for now

5.15 Champion Bumper 2ml
Look for a few firms offering 4 places here
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-11-cheltenham/17:15/winner
A breeding ground for future Festival winners for sure this is often a race to get stung on. If I backed everything in the field that I heard was ‘best in the stable’ I could easily have 7 or 8 running for me.
I think Supasundae’s Ascot win is the best piece of UK bumper form on show here (Yanworth second) but he has since been sold to Henry de Bromhead’s stable and now represents Ireland.
General Principle and Wait For me are two I have heard talked up a lot recently and the Wille Mullins stable is once again represented en masse.
I heard very good things about Stone Hard at the beginning of the season and he would be my pick if pushed. He doesn’t appear to be the stable first string on jockey bookings but that doesn’t always work out in this event and Paul Townend has already had 2 winners today so is hardly a disadvantage. What might find him out would be quicker ground.
He’s more of a hopeful selection and for the purposes of recommendations this remains a NO Bet race

Thanks for reading once again
Comments welcome as always and good luck

Paul

Initial Bank 50pts

Current Balance 16.31 pts

Ante Post Bets Staked 17 pts

Day 2 Cheltenham bets staked 6.5pts

The waiting is over and Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival is upon us.

As usual for this meeting there will be special offers in abundance. Enhanced place terms are always worth looking out for and there will be some daily offers that I will highlight whenever possible this week.
Unfortunately there will also be a plethora of crazy enhanced prices to offer for setting up new accounts but I won’t be looking out for any of those. They usually have a very low maximum bet acceptance and are just marketing gimmicks. Useful only if you have the chance to open an account in the name of your grandmother or dog!
Also make sure to check when taking a price for ‘Best Odds Guaranteed’ (available with the majority of firms) so that if the SP does end up bigger you won’t lose out
The going at time of writing is good to soft with good in places. With some light rain forecast later today but a drying day tomorrow we hopefully shouldn’t see too much difference this time tomorrow.
Onto the racing:

1.30 Supreme Novice Hurdle 2ml
¼ 123 odds a place generally available for the opening race of the meeting.
Odds available here: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/13:30/winner
Some offers of note that should be worth much consideration for those having accounts with these firms:
http://www.paddypower.com ; We will refund all losing single stakes on the Supreme Novices Hurdle as a free bet if Douvan wins (up to £50)
http://www.willhill.com : ‘Place a bet of up to £25 on the first race of the festival, and if your win or each way bet doesn’t come in, we’ll give you your money back as a free bet!’
This doesn’t have quite the competitive look to it that it usually has with two standout contenders at the top of the market frightening off all but 10 opponents.
Douvan heads the market for Ireland based on two very easy wins over 2 miles this season. It is a bit questionable what he has backed and this will be far his sternest test to date. He could be another Willie Mullins world beater but his short price is largely based on hype and doesn’t represent great value to me.
L’Ami Serge is next up and for me has slightly stronger credentials. His last two wins were on soft ground in small fields but his first win this season at Newbury is perhaps more telling – an easy win over Kilcooley has been advertised greatly by the runner up since. He doesn’t seem the most fluent jumper at times but always looks to have loads left in the tank and is the one to beat for me in this race. (A 66 day break since his last run isn’t ideal in terms of stats for race winners of this but we know he can perform well fresh)
Jollyalan is the other in the field with a handicap rating over 150 but has even more jumping concerns at this level and still looks a bit of a work in progress judged on his latest defeat at Sandown.
Qewy will also have some support and won very nicely at Newbury last time. It’s a while since a good ex flat racer won this event but going back in time many of those that did (French Ballerina, Flown, Harry Hastings, Shadow Leader) were all proven performers at 12 furlongs or more. It’s a little offputting for me that Qewy has only proved himself at lesser trips and I wonder if Aintree might have been a better target for him with stamina in mind. The uphill finish here could be his undoing.
Some Plan also gets a mention at a big price. He looks a horse for the future but ran his rivals into the ground from the front last time. He is likely to ensure a strong pace here which will have many in trouble. I can see him having improved enough to reverse earlier season form with Seedling but he may still be setting up the race for others in the home straight.
Verdict: I was considering a bet on L’Ami Serge a couple of weeks ago when he was around 9/2 but decided to wait until it became non runner no bet when I thought there was a good chance he would be the same price or possibly better. That plan has gone a little awry and at time of writing 7/2 is best available which is just under the price I would have wanted to recommend.
He is the selection for the race but is not a bet recommendation for now . (One to include in ew multiples for the day)

*MORNING UPDATE*

Ground remains unchanged at Good to Soft with Good in places overnight. The forecast is for a dry and suny day so it could well be all Good by the time of racing.

I will be having a play on LAmi Serge if 4/1 or higher becomes available but for now it it isn’t. It all depends on whether the money comes down for Douvan from Ireland if his price goes out or not.

2.05 Arkle Trophy 2ml
¼ odds 123 generally available
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/14:05/winner
Another offer to take note of here from Paddy Power: ‘We will refund all losing single stakes on the Arkle Chase as a free bet if Un De Sceaux wins.’ (£50 max refund)
Un De Sceaux is a short priced favourite for the Irish and could well be in a different league to his rivals here.
He will undoubtedly blast off from the front from the start (1980 the last time we had an all the way winner) and very hard to envisage anything having the pace to live with him. There isn’t really another rival left in the declarations who looks a likely front runner anyway (Clarcam tried it last time and paid for the effort so will probably be held back more on this occasion)
There are enough negatives to put me off him though.
Not having ever run at the track and having no experience of this festival occasion. For a horse who both Ruby Walsh and Barry Geraghty have said ‘ they haven’t felt in control of’ during parts of his previous wins – the chances of the occasion getting to him have to be considered.
He’s a low quick jumper (fell on his first start this season) and that style may encounter problems at this undulating course.
If he can surmount these issues he most likely wins – and wins easily but at odds on (8/11 currently best on offer) that’s too much to risk
I’ve already selected Vibrato Valtat Ante Post for this and am happy to sit with that position taken at a bigger price than is available now. He won’t be vying for the lead early and will be ridden to pick up the pieces from the back. I think he’s improved since beating Three Kingdoms at Kempton and while that rival looks a big price in comparison I would be concerned that his jumping may not be quite good enough here.
Court Minstrel gets a mention as a big outsider who really needs good ground to be most effective. We can forget his last run because of that and he’s another ‘stalker’ who will be held up at the back.
At the moment this a no bet race for me at current odds though Vibrato Valtat gets the pick for the each way multiples.
Previous recommendations
2pts ew Vibrato Valtat 7/1
1pt ew double Vibrato Valtat 6/1 + Jezki 6/1 (Champion Hurdle)

*MORNING UPDATE*

No extra bets for me but if I could get on with them Ladbrokes’s 11/8 currently offered on Clarcam to beat Josses Hill would be interesting. The latter has some big jumping problems to overcome

2.40 3 mile hcap chase
Generally ¼ odds 1234 but take note that some firms are dangling a carrot of offering 5 places.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/14:40/winner
Low weighted horses used to be ones to look out for here with the advantage on the side of those carrying less than 11 stone. That theory didn’t work last year though with Holywell carrying 11st 6lbs to victory and two others placing from 11st+.
Being aged 11 or more was another big negative but that doesn’t affect many this year..
Novices have a good record in recent years and much of this augurs well for Ned Stark who looked a chaser going places when winning at Wetherby last time. Alan King won this with a novice (Fork Lightning) in 2004 and Bensalem for him looked like doing the same until falling in 2010 (before making up for that the following year!)
The Druids Nephew appeals as the main danger with Barry Geraghty back onboard – a combination that looked a little unlucky here against Gold Cup bound Sam Winner in November. That form still makes him look as if he could have a few pounds in hand of his mark of 146. Despite him being touted for the Grand National I very much doubt that this is a prep race and that this has been his main target this season.
In contrast this should really be a prep race for Monbeg Dude who I have already tipped up for the Grand National. With the weights now out he can still be competitive here but connections will want to be saving something back for Aintree or else he could have been very interesting at 25/1 (still place potential though)
Pendra has seen support in recent days and may do so still with AP McCoy on board but he isn’t for me. He’s been well supported to win handicaps at the Festival for the last two seasons off lower marks but hasn’t delivered and has a stamina question mark at this trip. Barrakilla has a nice weight with 10st 7lbs but is also unproven over 3 miles.
Gallant Oscar is of most interest of the lower weights but with all of his form on softer ground there is a question mark over him on this quicker surface

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Recommendation:
1pt ew Ned Stark 8/1 (BetVictor/Betfair Sportsbook who both offer 5 places)

*MORNING UPDATE*

9/1 currently available on Ned Stark with BetVictor (level with Betfair Exchange price)

3.20 Champion Hurdle 2ml
The centrepiece of the first day and as long as the 8 declared runners are still there at the start it’s generally ¼ odds 123 on offer
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/15:20/winner
Again we have a previous ante post recommendation running here with Jezki taken at bigger odds than are now available.
With ground conditions likely to suit I would expect him to reverse earlier season form with Hurricane Fly.
Faugheen will be taking on better class opponents than he has routed so far this season but could easily be up to the task. It’s just a little niggle about his jumping that makes me think his current price of 5/4 best is a tad too short. Expect that to shorten or lengthen depending on what happens to Douvan and Un De Sceaux earlier in the day.
The New One is the other member of the Champion Hurdle triumvirate but his jumping has long had a question mark at the top level and is a worry again.
It’ll be a big shock for me if the winner comes from outside these main three and the biggest conundrum here will be how the race is run.
There’s no pacemaker in the field so Faugheen could be allowed to dictate the fractions. Jezki’s owner also has Kitten Rock in the race – he should be there on his own merit but could he be sacrificed to apply some pace and not let Faugheen have it all his own way?
For now it’s a no bet race at current odds for me with the Ante Post interest already on board
Previously recommended
2pts ew Jezki 6/1

Nothing to add this morning for this race

4.00 Mares Hurdle 2ml 4fur
Generally ¼ 123 (beware a few offering 1/5th)
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/16:00/winner
Quevega won this 4 times in a row and now team Mullins look set to monopolise the event once more with an arguably better mare – Annie Power – a short price favourite.
The stable also supplied last years 2nd Glens Melody but there was no contest when these two met as novices and Annie ran out a very easy 12 length winner.
The problem is that Annie Power hasn’t run yet this season and her preparation has had some problems according to reports – or else she may well have been running in the World Hurdle instead.
It’s quite likely that she won’t have to be 100% to win this but while she is much the likeliest winner her odds are quite prohibitive given those little doubts about her wellbeing this year..
Polly Peachum is highest rated of the home contingent and does have a rating 5lb higher than Glens Melody. She hasn’t been seen since pulling up at Kempton – a run largely best ignored as Caroles Spirit slipped the field and got too far clear under an inspired Daryl Jacob ride giving the others and impossible task to catch her. That 106 day absence is a slight concern although it seems likely that she has been waiting for better ground.
Verdict.
I cant back Annie Power but wouldn’t want to back against her either. Betting without the favourite would be the main market of interest for me and so will look for more firms to offer that tomorrow before making any judgement

*MORNING UPDATE*

Betfred/Totesports 4/1 (1/4 123) for Polly Peachum in their betting without Annie Power looking the most attractive option this morning. Barry Geraghty seemed qiuite optimistic about here chances in his regular At The Races blog last night

4.40 National Hunt Chase 4 miles
¼ odds 123 with most firms
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/16:40/winner
There are some unhappy Ante Post backers around here after Very Wood became a runner today after being announced as a runner in the RSA Chase at the end of last week (and Ante Post fav Wounded Warrior swapping with him)
Very Wood does have a lot to recommend him having won at the Festival as a novice hurdler last season when looking a real stayer.
Stamina for 4 miles is unproven but that applies to virtually the whole field. He appeals as the likeliest winner but I wouldn’t feel confident enough to put him up as a bet at around 7/2.
If any firm did offer 4 places on this tomorrow I might be looking more for a longer priced outsider each way.
Vivaldi Collonges (inexperienced but appears to need an extreme distance and decent ground) and Theatre Queen (quirky but extraordinary performance last time considering she stood still at the start ) would be two such to consider
For now it’s a NO BET race

*MORNING UPDATE*

With some firms now offering 4 places I’m tempted by a small bet here.

Vivaldi Colonges isn’t a stats pick – he’s probably too young and not enough chasing experience for that. But I just feel the distance and going here are going to be right up his street and he has an excellent pilot aboard in Will Biddick.

Recommendation 0.5 pts ew Vivaldi Collonges 16/1 (1/4 1234 – Betfred/Totesport)

5.15 2ml 4fur Novices Hcap Chase
The finale is generally ¼ 1234 but again look out for a few offering that extra place.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/2015-03-10-cheltenham/17:15/winner
I’ve had Thomas Crapper in mind for this race for some time and he has sneaked in with a very low weight after some inspired placing over inadequate trip and bad ground to get him back to a mark of 134 from 138.
Cheltenham, decent ground and 20 furlongs all seems to be his optimum conditions and his form against current RSA fav Don Poli at the Festival last year looks all the better now..

I’m hardly being imaginative in nominating Generous Ransom as his main danger. Nick Gifford has looked after this one carefully throughout his career and he came of age at Cheltenham last time when looking the winner a long way out.
The family all have a marked appreciation for better ground so it was no surprise to see him wilt a little on the run in there. I expect more improvement than the 8 lb raise the handicapper has given him back on better going – and expect him to confirm the form with third home Irish Cavalier
Recommendations
1.5 pts ew each
Thomas Crapper 15/2
Generous Ransom 7/1
Both with BetVictor and Betfair Sportsbook who offer 5 places

*MORNING UPDATE*

Generous Ransom now a mouthwatering 10/1 with BetVictor and with 5 places. That’s a point higher than Betfair Exchange who are only 9/1 right now (same price as their Sportsbook who also offer the 5th place option)

The blog will get some updates each morning if anything catches my eye on the day of the race.
Day 2’s thoughts will appear tomorrow evening – hopefully in advance of Pricewise selections – and will continue in the same way for Day 3 and 4.

Many thanks for reading and good luck this week with whatever you end up backing
Comments are always most welcome

Paul

Initial Bank 50pts

Current Balance 14 pts

Ante Post Bets staked 27pts

Day 1 Cheltenham bets staked 9 pts

2 weeks and counting to the start of the Cheltenham Festival but focus was switched to the Crabbies Grand National last week as weights were revealed at Covent Garden’s Royal Opera House

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Now that the weights are out the marks can’t be changed and no doubt some runners will begin to show themselves in a better light after previous attempts this season when they turn up for Aintree’s showpiece on Saturday 11th April
As pointed out in last years preview of the race there are some statistics that come to the fore every year which I follow and a shortlist of the most likely winners for me has emerged
Weight; carrying 11 stone or less a big positive. Between 1984 and 2005 nothing managed to win carrying over this barrier. When Don’t Push It won carrying 11st 5lbs in 2010 it did start to appear that maybe weight (and a less difficult course) could be less of a factor as the class of the race was improving. However since then, out of the 160 runners taking part 37 have carried over 11 stone and only 6 have finished in the first 10 placings. So for now, the weight barrier is still very important to me.
Stamina. It’s a big asset to have this proven and that means being competitive either in this race before or in one of the other ‘Nationals’ or competitive long distance handicaps in excess of 3ml 4 furlongs. (I slightly passed by Pineau De Re’s claims last year as not counting the Ulster Grand National into this mix – otherwise he would have been a perfect stats pick)
Age ; 9, 10 or 11 is the most likeliest. 8 or 12 does occasionally win but anything else we might as well just put a line through
Runs this season. Not a stat I’ve focussed on too much before until recently seeing someone else put up that of the last 24 winners, nothing had come into the race with less than 3 runs that season.
This isn’t to say that if a runner doesn’t meet all of these stats it won’t win – it just gives an adavantage to those that do meet all the criteria on all known evidence.
I’ve already put up Godsmejudge as a selection on an earlier posting this year https://thefinalfence.wordpress.com/2015/01/15/january-ante-post-selections-cheltenham-and-grand-national/
He fits all of the stats – 10st 8lbs is an ideal weight, he’s now 9 and his Scottish National record marks him as having no holes with stamina. His win in that race as a novice in 2013 was al the more meritorious as he himself carried more weight than was the norm for that race. I hope there are some parallels to be had with Earth Summit who won the Scottish National as a novice before triumphing in this race on his first attempt 4 years later.
He’s had a quiet preparation so far, being highly in need of the race first time up and pulling up. Last weekend, he raced over a trip too short but put in a much improved performance running on stoutly at the finish. Alan King plans to run him once more before the big race which should give him the required 3 runs. 25/1 is still available and highly recommended to those not on already.
There is another that stands out as already meeting all requirements and I will now add in as a further selection…..
Monbeg Dude finished 7th in the race last year and arguably could have been closer. He had crept into a lovely position next to eventual second Balthazar King by Bechers second time round. Things didn’t go quite as well from then on as he lost his pitch slightly with slow jumps probably caused by running into some in front of him. The effort to get back to the leaders probably cost him getting a better placing.

This year Aintree again seems the aim. He’s 10 and a previous Welsh national win is his main stamina pointer. His run at Haydock last time looked very mindful of weights being released soon after and he now gets a mark of 144 (2 less than last year) giving him a lovely 10st 7lbs. He’s already had 4 runs this season and is scheduled to have one more before the big race according to connections.
33/1 is a fairly widely available and too big to ignore for me.
The most obvious marker put down for the National since weights were published was by Rocky Creek at Kempton last Saturday and I cant finish without giving him a mention.
He is one of the few 11st+ horses to reach top 10 in this race having finished 5th last year.
He fails on the weight issue as he has 11st 3lbs currently (weights could conceivably rise by 2-3 lbs if a couple of top weights drop out) but is on a 2 lb lower mark than last year – he should be carrying more on that last piece of form so is theoretically ‘well in’
He seemed to fall short of stamina last year and doesn’t meet that criteria but a breathing operation and being in front less soon (last year the running out of Across the Bay at start of second circuit did leave him in front earlier than expected) could see an improvement.
I can’t put anyone off supporting him each way as think he may well get placed again but the negatives are enough to sway me from putting him forward as a selection.
There’s another of note right down the weights I wil also mention. Raz Da Maree finished 8th last year coming from another parish to get that placing in the home straight. He needs another run to meet the ‘3 run’ mark but could be an interesting outsider come the day if the ground did happen to come up soft. This doesn’t happen too often but would be crucial to his chances
Current Grand National odds can be found here: http://www.oddschecker.com/grand-national/winner

Recommendations
1 pt ew Monbeg Dude 33/1 (widely available but take the ¼ 12435 option available with firms such as 365, BetVictor, Paddy Power if possible)
Already recommended 1pt ew Godsmejudge at 28/1 but boosting that now with a further 0.5 pts ew taking 25/1 (365 or BetVictor ¼ 12345)

Thanks for reading once more and comments are welcome as always
The blog will be back just before Cheltenham to preview all races on a daily basis
Best of luck

Paul

• Initial bank 50pts
Current balance 23pts
Ante Post bets 27pts staked (with some updated info on previous selections :
2pts ew Saphir Du Rheu 8/1 World Hurdle
• (now around 5/1 jt fav after the withdrawal off ante post fav More of That – stablemate Zarkandar appears the main danger)
1pt ew Champagne West 16/1 RSA Chase
• (unfortunately out for the season with hock injury – so with ante post rules this bet is now a loser unless the race does not take place)
1pt ew Southfield Theatre 20/1 RSA Chase
Now down to around the 8/1 mark
1pt ew Blaklion 12/1 Albert Bartlett Hurdle
1pt ew Godsmejudge 28/1 Grand National
• 0.5pts ew Godsmejudge 25/1
• 1pt ew Monbeg Dude 33/1 Grand National
• 2pts ew Vibrato Valtat 7/1 Arkle Chase
• (now 11/2 best price available)
• 2pts ew Jezki 6/1 NRNB Champion Hurdle
• (6/1 NRNB now disappeared – 11/2 best currently available with that concession)
• 1pt ew double Vibrato Valtat 6/1 & Jezki 6/1
• 1pt ew Windsor Park 12/1 Neptune Novice Hurdle
• (put up by Pricewise today despite some mutterings that he may go for 3 mile option if ground is good last week – obviously IO hope that doesn’t happen and he sticks to the Neptune where he hovers around 10/1 currently)

Nearly 4 weeks to go and another weekend full of clues for the Cheltenham Festival has just passed – and some more bets for the Ante Post portfolio have emerged.
Arkle Chase 10th March
Un De Sceaux is standing head and shoulders above his rivals now for this (8/13 best with traditional books – close to 8/11 on Betfair). He could well be a class above the rest but I think I would be watching from behind the sofa over the first few fences if I had backed him after seeing him fall on his first foray over the bigger obstacles this year.
With question marks over Josses Hill’s jumping now the bet against the fav has to be Vibrato Valtat after a ruthlessly efficient display to win at Warwick on Saturday. In disposing of the highly promising Top Gamble with the minimum of fuss he looked a horse who is firmly on the upward curve and could be heading for a handicap mark close to 160.

That would give him a fine chance in any normal rendition of this race. He looks a very safe jumper and unlike the fav and almost every other likely runner in the race (there may not be many on the day!) he has jumped round the chase course at Cheltenham.
If the favourite does jump round safely he may be unstoppable but it’s highly unlikely that the selection will get involved with him early and will ride a stalking race which should secure him a place at the very least. The majority of his form does come on soft ground – and it should be a bit better than that on the day – but there’s not enough to suggest that good ground won’t be a significant impediment for me.
7/1 for win odds is fair enough but it’s the place angle that’s more important here, getting 7/4 for something that’s probably no better than Evens to happen
Recommendation
2pts ew Vibrato Valtat 7/1 (365, SportingBet, Boyles, Betfair Sportsbook)
Up to date odds available here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/arkle-trophy/winner

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Champion Hurdle 10th Mar
I have been toying with this one for a while and alluded to it in an earlier posting this year but cannot really get away with not selecting Jezki each way at 6/1 now with Non Runner No Bet available.
This price has been teetering on Betfair in recent days and I can see it being shorter on the day with the AP McCoy factor now likely to be an even bigger draw to backers. I’ve seen other tipsters put up the same bet in recent weeks so it’s now time to jump on this particular bandwagon as well!
In contrast, current fav Faugheen must surely be one the layer will want to take money on nearer the race. 5/4 is the best available right now but I can see bigger than that occurring on race day.
Jezki is the choice as he’s the one who already has the t-shirt here. He is defending champion and we know the likely better ground and strong pace will be much more to his liking than previous races this season (as it was last season).
Faugheen has been mightily impressive this season but has yet to beat anything of the class of Jezki or The New One.
I am not dismissing The New One at all from calculations – he was unlucky last year but often seems to hit a hurdle and that could be costly again at this level. I rate his chances on a par with Jezki here but the selection is double the price and that’s why he’s the clear pick.
I’m still far from convinced that Hurricane Fly will run if the ground gets better – this course just doesn’t suit him as well as Leopardstown – and I think team Mullins will find an excuse to keep him at home once Ruby walsh picks Faugheen as his mount.
That really means it’s a 3 horse race for me and it’s again the place angle that sways this bet with 6/4 being taken for Jezki to be in the frame

Recommendation
2pts ew Jezki 6/1 – take the Non Runner No Bet offer with Paddy Power, Coral or Winner
Latest odds here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/champion-hurdle/winner

I would also suggest an each way double on the two selections above for an extra shot at getting the place odds bonus
1pt ew double Vibrato Valtat 6/1 and Jezki 6/1 (Winner Sports) – a bit of shopping around needed to get best odds on the double as best odds not available for both at the same firm – over 5/1 for the place double should be possible though

–

Neptune Novice Hurdle 11th March
This was a race without any real standout contenders I thought until watching Sunday’s Deloitte Novice Hurdle finish fought out between Nichols Canyon and Windsor Park.

This race over 2ml 2fur can be a key for either Tuesday’s Supreme or this race on Wednesday in many years and here these two proved far too good for what looked a strong field.
Both looked to be types who would appreciate further and the Neptune would be the race for them.
If this race were NRNB I would probably back both at their respective odds of 8/1 and 12/1. However, Nichols Canyon is from team Mullins and there’s always that seed of doubt with that stable as to how the cards will be shuffled and which race he will end up in(owner also has Shaneshill asa possible for this race).
Although Windsor Park is entered in other novice races and nothing has been confirmed, I don’t really see why he should go for any other race. He’s been highly regarded as a dual purpose stayer (sometimes in same breath as the stable’s Ascot Gold Cup hope Forgotten Rules) and the way he raced on Sunday suggested he needed further.
Better ground should be likely at Cheltenham and this should suit him admirably as he really is bred to win a Classic on the flat being by Galileo.
An earlier interview on At The Races on Sunday with jockey Davy Russell convinced me that he really was seeing Sunday’s race as a stepping stone for this one and for Lord Windermere later in the day – he ‘would have been happy with a place’. But in the end he was the eyecatcher for me, not looking to be a contender down the back straight but doing all of his best work at the finish. For all of the Racing Post’s comment that Nichols Canyon won ‘comfortably’, I don’t think there will be much between these two at Cheltenham and so am going for the bigger odds chance who I feel fairly sure will be turning up here rather than one of the other events
Recommendation
1pt ew Windsor Park 12/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes, Winner)
Odds comparisons here: http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/neptune-novices-hurdle/winner

thanks for reading – comments as always most appreciated

Paul

Last weekend was always going to have a major bearing on some of the Ante Post markets for the big festival.
Consequently there is another selection added to the portfolio for the March festival.
World Hurdle 12th March
I was a bit dismissive of Saphir Du Rheu’s chances before this race. Stamina for 3 miles was unproven and his sole previous venture at the course was less than inspiring. It wasn’t a surprise therefore to see him drift in price before the off.
What happened in the race itself has now seen me become a supporter as he firmly put to bed both concerns
I’ve been a fan of Nick Williams’s Reve De Sivola since his 4yo days and the heart dearly wanted to see him prevail on Saturday. It’s his performance which for me highlights the chance of Saphir du Rheu in the big one.
‘Reve’ has always been a bit hit and miss with hurdling but here I don’t think I saw a mistake once and this was a true stamina test with him and Cole Harden forcing the pace. Subsequent comments from many at the course that the 10yo was looking really well make me think he probably ran to one of his best performances here on ground that would have been to his liking. I certainly rate it better than his previous narrow Ascot defeat of Zarkandar where there were some notable jumping errors.
It is much to Saphir du Rheu’s credit therefore that he was able to sit happily behind the strong pace and then be produced to outbattle a supremely good battler up Cheltenham’s hill.
He was in receipt of 4lbs of the second for sure, but the winner is likely to have scope for improvement come March and will be the better suited by less soft ground.
It was an ideal trial for me. Paul Nicholls stated afterwards there was more to come and better ground would suit.
The opposition:
Favourite for the World Hurdle is last year’s victor More of That. If he returns in the same form he could well be a class apart but there is a big question mark hanging over Jonjo O’Neill’s charge. He hasn’t been seen since a defeat in November in very soft ground and has subsequently undergone a wind operation.
Annie Power is a low price in some lists but that is only with firms offering ‘Non Runner No Bet’ and last year’s second seems a much likelier runner in the Mares Hurdle instead.
Of the rest, Zarkandar remains a threat but I rate him a little behind the selection now as explained previously. Rock on Ruby hasn’t yet proved stamina over 3 miles and his optimum distance could well be half a mile shorter. Lieutenant Colonel has emerged as the main Irish raider presently but didn’t seem to cope with the hill too well here as a novice last season. Beat That also has to prove he likes this course
All in all, I rate Saphir du Rheu a decent bet right now with 7/1 still available.

Recommendation
2pts ew Saphir Du Rheu 7/1 (SportingBet, Ladbrokes, William Hill, Betfair Sportsbook – the latter also has NRNB concession for the race so is the most recommended option)

Prices available here:http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/world-hurdle/winner

Thanks for reading – comments always welcome

Paul

• Initial bank 50pts
  Current balance 38pts
  Ante Post bets 12pts staked (with some updated info) :
  2pts ew Saphir Du Rheu 8/1 World Hurdle
  1pt ew Champagne West 16/1 RSA Chase
  1pt ew Southfield Theatre 20/1 RSA Chase
  With Saphir Du Rheu now firmly on course for hurdles it would be hoped this is the main hope for Nicholls in the event – due to run at Newbury in November in a novice chase often used as an RSA trial
  1pt ew Blaklion 12/1 Albert Bartlett Hurdle
  Slightly disappointing when caught on the line at Doncaster last Saturday. That was a slowly run race however and will be completely different to the Cheltenham event. Remains similar chance with no obvious stars yet to emerge in his division
  1pt ew Godsmejudge 28/1 Grand National
  First run of the season last Saturday – didn’t expect too much and he got tired and was pulled up. It’s all about getting the right mark for the big race so not expecting to see him do too much before then to enhance his claims

A belated Happy New Year to all!
The blog has been quiet since November while I have been having adventures in New Zealand. With videos now scrutinised from the time I was away it’s time to put together a January Ante Post briefing. I did similarly last year with some success when 25/1 pick O’Faolains Boy did the business at Cheltenham the following March.
That was the springboard to a very successful period for the blog selections. Alas, Aintree and Royal Ascot were more forgettable so 2014 ended with 218 pts staked and 213.91 pts returned – a loss of 1.8% on the year ( I still can’t believe that 50/1 pick Inchila didn’t get placed in the Oaks though!)
Once again overly soft ground prevents too much interest in the immediate racing calendar but it’s now time to get active with some Ante Post picks again as the Festival gets ever nearer.
To keep a closer eye on profit/loss this year I’m assuming a bank of 50 pts is being held at the start and base staking around that
Here’s the verdict for the current Ante Post Value in weeks ahead:
Cheltenham:
Champion Hurdle 10th March
No selection here but this already has the look of a race that could cut up with 3 obvious candidates – Faugheen, The New One and last year’s winner Jezki. I would not be at all surprised if as expected Ruby Walsh rides Faugheen to see old champion Hurricane Fly not turning up for the race (for me despite winning here twice his form has always been better in Ireland). I can’t see anything else threatening these three presently so at the prices would not put anyone off Jezki each way with ¼ odds available 123 and some Non Runner No Bet. He should be a different horse again on Spring ground and find it hard to see him out of the frame.
RSA Chase 11th March
Following the basis that Irish staying bred 7yos hold the sway here (now successful in 9 of last 10 runnings) proved highly profitable last year. I look for the same formula once again. All of the last 10 winners had at least 3 chase runs prior to running here to put some emphasis also on chasing experience.
Kings Palace the current fav is 7 and bred in Ireland. He needs another chase run to meet the criteria but of higher concern is his previous Festival performance. He looked to have all in his favour at last year’s Albert Bartlett but was well beaten by the time he fell. At the moment I do have a concern that all of his best form is before Christmas – and he certainly won’t have things all his own way in front this year with equally bold jumping Coneygree a likely challenger.
If these two do both turn up they could be their own worst enemies and I’m looking at two classy types who do meet the criteria to be beneficiaries.
Like O’Faolains Boy, Champagne West was 4th in the Albert Bartlett but has already proved himself an improved horse as a novice chaser this year reaching a mark of 152 in 3 starts over the course. They have all been over a shorter trip but he was beaten for pace by the classy Ptit Zig last time (will be a very tough nut to crack in the JLT chase at the Festival) and a step up in trip is now in stable’s plans. Baed on what he did as a novice hurdler, this should suit and I can also see improvement if he can get a good lead in the race (found himself in front far too soon on last two occasions)

The other is Southfield Theatre who hasn’t run since the end of November when soft ground would have been against him. It’s unlikely he will face that at the Festival where he ran a great race last year to be a narrow second in the Pertemps Final. That marked him as a solid 150+ hurdler when ground conditions are right – and there seems no reason why he cant match that over fences.
Although he is quoted by some firms for the National Hunt Chase, this would seem the obvious race for him with Paul Nicholls having no other main candidates now that Saphir Du Rheu is switching back to hurdles (the latter still quoted by many firms for RSA at time of writing despite this news!)

Both selections have already met the criteria of having 3 chase runs and their respective marks of 152 and 150 would easily be already up to winning an average renewal of this race
Recommendations
1pt ew Champagne West 16/1
1pt ew Southfield Theatre 20/1
Both widely available at time of writing http://www.oddschecker.com/cheltenham-festival/rsa-chase/winner

Albert Bartlett Hurdle 13th March
The novice hurdle event for the real stayers and I see some value here in Nigel Twiston Davies’ Blaklion.
It’s notable that his most impressive run was over 3 miles at this course when he was able to sit off the pace. He’s been beaten in shorter races when having to race from the front to try and expose stamina flaws in speedier rivals.

Here, I hope he can sit in behind again and the undoubted stamina can be used to pick rivals off once more.
He is going to be entered in other races but it will be a shock if this isn’t the ultimate target.
No More Heroes is current Ante Post fav and does look a good staying prospect but I do have reservations that the ground maybe quicker than ideal come the day
Dan Skelton’s Value at Risk could be a more potent threat. I have great respect for this up and coming trainer and this could be the horse to take him onto a higher stage – but currently he’s too short to back on what he has actually achieved – especially as it’s not certain which novice race he will end up in.

The selection could be vulnerable to an opponent with real class but I’m not sure if there’s enough guaranteed to be up against him yet that qualify on that score and he is now overpriced as a result.
Recommendation
1pt ew Blaklion 12/1 (Paddy Power)
There are too many other Championship races at the Cheltenham Festival with uncertain runners to get involved in as yet. The Gold Cup doesn’t scream out value anywhere as yet. Handicaps will have to be left until much nearer the time

An so the other recommendation comes in National Hunt racing’s showpiece event, The Grand National (Aintree, 11th April)
As posted last year, the optimum criteria is a 9,10 or 11 year old with previous ‘National’ raceexperience.
It’s also important these days not to show your hand too early to the handicapper (current fav Unioniste has probably already blown his chance with the handicapper by being upped to 159), and for trainers to keep their powder dry until weights are released in February.
I’m delighted that Godsmejudge appears to be getting the right kind of preparation and hasn’t been seen so far this season (today being pulled out of Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock was a pleasing thing to see with conditions likely to be far too soft there)
He’s long looked an ideal type for this event through his Scottish National exploits as a novice and has now reached the ‘golden’ age bracket

Fingers now firmly crossed he can keep to his current mark of 147 before weights are announced. That should get him a weight below 11 stone which can so often be a telling factor in this race
Sadly the last vestiges of 33/1 went over the last few days but 25/1 or more is still acceptable odds for me now that he’s had the Christmas holiday I was hoping for.
Recommendation
1pt ew Godsmejudge 28/1 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Many thanks for reading and hoping for a profitable year ahead
As always comments are most welcome
Paul
(@Senor_Moodoir)

Initial Bank 50pts (8pts staked so far on Ante Post selections)

The Hennessy Gold Cup is the first major handicap chase of the season for staying chasers. Next Saturday’s premier event held at Newbury,has a typically competitive field on paper so far. Second season novices with future Gold Cup aspiration are often the desired type but established handicappers and Grade 1 performers are on the winners list also. It’s hard to knock anyone out on that basis but with soft ground looking likely the ability to stay in excess of 3 miles should be a major factor this year.
The Irish have a poor record in the race but Djakadam has been a talking horse for some time and was the subject of support last week to bring his price down to a high of 5/1 currently. His mark of 142 is probably right on what he has achieved so far but his home reputation is such that he could well be leniently handicapped. The Mullins/Walsh combination will prove irresistible to some but it has to be a negative that the only time he has raced in a really competitive chase his jumping let him down and he fell at the Cheltenham Festival last year. This race should be even more emphasis on jumping and allied to the fact that is stamina is totally unproven I will have to pass him by.
Many Clouds comes next in the list at 7/1. While he is a second season chaser he did have his peers in the novice division last year and I feel he is highly rated enough with a mark of 151 now. Stamina and fitness shouldn’t be a problem but I feel others are better treated – place potential still for him.
Fingal Bay comes next at 8/1 representing the bang in form Philip Hobbs stable. His novice chase season didn’t go to plan at all last season and he ended up reverting to hurdles. It seems a big ask to throw him in here off a mark of 153 with no chasing experience at top level and it’s only the stable form that keeps his price low for me.
Rocky Creek and Smad Place come next at 10/1. The former was second in this race last year on good ground – looking as if his stamina was stretched just a bit too far on the run-in. This was seen similarly in the Grand National. So with the ground likely to be much softer this year and a 5lb higher mark I will be avoiding him this time.
Smad Place has more of the traditional winners profile for this race. Only just touched off in last season’s RSA chase, he has winning form at this track and isn’t that badly treated on a mark of 155 considering he got to 161 over hurdles. I can see him progressing to Gold Cup level this season but do have a slight concern if he’ll be fit enough on his seasonal debut here. If he is close to 100% I can see him being a major player and the main threat to my selection which is….The Druids Nephew.

An old friend of mine having tipped him up at the Cheltenham Festival in 2013, The Druids Nephew seems to finally displaying the potential he showed early on in his career now that he has switched stables to Neil Mulholland. He ran off his mark of 141 when beaten at Cheltenham last time where he seemed to be ridden as if stamina was a concern. Ultimately he stayed the trip fine over a longer trip than this but perhaps gave the winner there Sam Winner (entered here but looks an unlikely runner) a bit too much rope up front in so doing and couldn’t quite peg him back on the run in.
He ran well enough to prompt the handicapper to raise him by 6lb to 147 but still gets in off his old mark here and so is consequently 6lb well in.
That fact alone should sound some warning bells that his price of 16/1 is plenty big enough. Barry Geraghty rode him on that occasion but could be claimed for one of the Henderson outsiders in the race this time. However, AP Mc Coy rode him the time before that and there is no obvious ride for the champion jockey in the race so far on the weekend that should see his return to action. This would seem to be the natural choice for him.
Recommendation
1pt ew The Druids Nephew 16/1 (still fairly general but expect to see prices go when 5 day decs come out on Monday morning)
Current ante post prices can be seen here:
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/hennessy-gold-cup/winner

Best of luck to all with whatever you back – this will be the last post on the blog this year as I take time off in December so hoping for an early Christmas present here!
Thanks for reading and will be back in the New Year

Paul

The Paddy Power Gold Cup (or as it will be ever be known in my mind in its original incarnation, the ‘Mackeson’) is for many jump racing fans the sign that top class National Hunt racing is back.
This year’s race seems as competitive as ever and weather may still be a crucial factor. After further rain on Thursday night the going is now described as Soft
As is often the case at Cheltenham a major stat to look for is for horses with previous good form at the course. Weight isn’t a major issue but those that win with a weight of more than 11 stone would not normally look out of place in a Grade 1 chase like the Gold Cup , Ryanair or King George later in the season. Irish raiders have only been successful once since 1980 – and we have to go even further back to find a winner aged 10 or more.
The race is usually run at a good pace and you would generally need a sound jumper who can keep a good position throughout
Here are the runners:

OSCAR WHISKY 9yo 11st 12lbs
The class horse of the race – his mark of 156 is still some way below his hurdles best of 167 so on that basis he could be considered well in . Soft ground isn’t a problem and trip is ideal but here come the negatives: Jumping became a bit of an issue last season as his level of competitivity increased and he fell at the Festival. That was his only race with a double figure field and with 18 rivals here and a good pace assured he will be under more pressure at the obstacles again. Many of the stables runners have been needing a run also in last few weeks so he may not be cherry ripe.

JOHNS SPIRIT 7yo 11st 12lbs
Last years winner from a mark of 139 – he won the same prep race this year over the course but now has a 17lb higher mark to shoulder with a rating of 156. He could be an improved horse this season but will need to be and prove he is better than a handicapper to be competitive off this mark. Not certain to confirm form with Persian Snow (5lbs better off for 1 length) and Ericht (12lbs for 7 lengths). Also huge weight differentials with Attaglance, Easter Meteor and Champion Court from last years race. Softening ground could be a minus with all best form shown on better.

EDGARDO SOL 7yo 11st 6lbs
Took ‘hugging theinside rail’ to new extremes on his last start when jumping into the wings of his fences. Did well to finish 2nd despite that but there isn’t enough in hos overall form to suggest he is well weighted here with a mark of 150

CHAMPION COURT 9yo 11st 5lbs
Favourite for this race last year when a disappointing 7th. Raced off 157 then and has now been dropped to 149. Behind Johns Spirit at the last Cheltenham meeting where he didn’t quite show his old zest again and for me he’s never been quite the same horse since a lungbursting effort in the 2012 King George. Martin Keighley had him out hunting recently the try and get him back on song again – if he can succeed he is well handicapped – but I fear previous toils may have left a lasting mark with ‘Champ’
KAPGA DE CERISY 6yo 11st 4lbs
Never wise to dismiss a Venetia Williams horse but it has to be a worry that this young chaser missed most of last season. Two previous runs on the course don’t really give any encouragement that this is his track

EASTER METEOR 8yo 11st 4lbs
Still in with every chance in last years race when falling 2 out (9lb better off with Johns Spirit). Despite the fall the handicapper didn’t give him too many chances afterwards and despite not winning he has an 8lb higher mark this year and also has missed any prep run this time. His supporters will be hoping that a switch in stable to David Pipe has brought improvement and he has him fully tuned up at home – because on the face of it he is up against it

SHANPALLAS 6yo 11st 3lbs
Irish raiders don’t have a great record in this race and it’s hard to see how this one is well handicapped with a rating of 147. No encouragement can be gained from his only previous venture on the course when beaten 50 lengths by Indian Castle

CANTLOW 9yo 11st 3lbs
Was a highly promising novice hurdler who has never quite fulfilled that potential over chases. Best effort last season was over Cheltenham’s New course (better off with Johns Spirit and Easter Meteor who were both behind that day). The slightly quicker Old Course may be against him here and with no AP McCoy available to ride we still await to see a jockey booking

EASTLAKE 8yo 11st 2lbs
Looked a two mile horse for most of his career but gave sign that further was possible when 3rd at Aintree last year ( he is a full brother to the stable star More of That who stays 3 miles). Return at Chepstow was encouraging and he was badly hampered when trying to get into the race. I would have been less encouraged by his chance if the stable had put up one of their conditional riders on board but the booking of Jason Maguire suggests there is some stable confidence here to me.

BUYWISE 7yo 11st 2lbs
5 lbs worse off despite getting beaten by Present View at the Festival last year – but could well have given him something to think about but for bad jumping. Made amends for that afterwards and definitely has an engine but these jumping frailties have to be a concern again now he’s back in a 19 runner handicap where keeping a good position is paramount. Runs off his hihest vere mark but does fall into the ‘progressive’ category

PRESENT VIEW 6yo 11st
A Cheltenham Festival winner last season and did nothing to dispel his chances here with a nice trial over hurdles at the last meeting here. Jumps well and ability to keep a nice position in the race should keep him in good stead.. He does have the highest mark of his career here but is going the right way. Not totally convinced he would be suited by much more rain (Presenting the sire usually an influence for decent ground and best performance came on Good to Soft. Remains a leading contender as we may not have seen the best of him yet.

ATTAGLANCE 8yo 10st 13lbs
Plenty of course form for the Northern challenger who is well in with others on his 4th in this race last year (11 lbs beter off for 6 lengths with Johns Spirit). His mark is actually 6 lb higher though than last year.
Attaglance has performed well at the Festival as well on two occasions so the course is obviously not a problem but on balance he has performed best in the Spring when the ground is decent. The threat of more rain would not appear to be in his favour

CAID DU BERLAIS 5yo 10st 13lbs
Hurdling form remains superior to chasing form for this one so far – and worrying that his novice chasing season was cut off early and he was reverted to the smaller obstacles last season. This race wouldn’t appear to be the type of event to ease him back in!

PERSIAN SNOW 8yo 10st 11lbs
Ran well on his reappearance when run down close home by Johns Spirit. He’s weighted to have every chance to reverse that form now. Also ran well at the Festival last year – may have finished closer but for being hampered on home turn – and marginally better off with Present View, Attaglance and Buywise from that race.
Philip Hobbs hasn’t won this race for a while but went close with Colour Squadron last year and has had a few other placed horses in recent years.

INDIAN CASTLE 6yo 10st 10lbs
Promising novice trained by Donald McCain last year. He won a competitive handicap on the New Course off a mark of 135 in January. The ground was heavy then so further rain should not be an issue.
He now races for Ian Williams (same owner flitted Weird Al between these two trainers in past) and isn’t harshly treated on a mark of 140.
A combination of the trip and the good ground could have contributed to his downfall when a beaten favourite at the Festival. Fitness will be the main issue here as he has yet to race this season

CEDRE BLEU 7yo 10st 9lbs
‘A bit of a monkey’ might be a kind description here – Cedre Bleu has some decent form but needed plenty of finessing in the saddle and has lost races he looked likely to win by finding very little off the bridle. No real encouragement that he has improved for a stable switch to Charlie Mann to be a contender here

ORPHEUS VALLEY 11yo 10st 7lbs
Has to be a big outsider on form and being an Irish trained 11yo , he would be defying every statistic in the book to be successful here.

ERICHT 8yo 10st 7lbs
Disappointing when pulled up at the Festival last year but has run well at this course before without winning. Would expect plenty of improvement on his seasonal debut and the pull in the weights gives him every chance to reverse form with Johns Spirit. Jockey booking of Andrew Tinkler would signify he is the stable’s number two but he can’t be discounted and I suspect Barry Geraghty’s choice would have some previous loyalties attached to it – further rain maybe against him though and he seems best on Good or Good to Soft.

KING MASSINI 8yo 10st 1lb
The bottom weight is taking on a much higher level than he is used to here. He’s yet to be competitive at his current mark of 131 and fell on his only venture to this course. Trip also appears too short

CONCLUSIONS:
Oscar Whisky and Buywise are the two most obvious contenders for me who are likeliest to let jumping ruining their chances. If they jump cleanly round they are contenders but that is too big an ‘if’ for me to support them in a race like this. Caid Du Berlais at slightly bigger odds may also need a health warning if being backed.
Irish raiders and those with no real course form are discounted straight away (Kapga de Cerisy, Shanpallas, Orpheus Valley, King Massini)
A few others are not handicapped well enough to win this race for me: Johns Spirit, Edgardo Sol, Easter Meteor, Attaglance (ground also against now),

This now leaves a shortlist of:
CHAMPION COURT
CANTLOW
EASTLAKE
PRESENT VIEW
PERSIAN SNOW
INDIAN CASTLE
CEDRE BLEU
ERICHT
I would take Cedre Bleu out immediately as he’s just too quirky. Champion Court is weighted well on his best form but appears on a downward curve right now so is also dismissed.
I think Cantlow may prefer a slightly bigger test of stamina and it’s a little disconcerting that he hasn’t been jocked up yet and the other McManus runners have.
I would like the chances of Present View and Ericht much more on decent ground so the further rain is a concern. It wouldn’t be a shock to see either win. Present View might well have been the selection on good ground but at around 6/1 he’s just a bit too short for me now in prevailing conditions
Indian Castle, in contrast, is probably the most obvious one in the race to have been suited by a deluge. As he’s only 6 we should expect improvement from last season. The value on him has probably gone earlier this week as he’s now down to a best price of 10/1. Not having had a run this season is the negative here and I wouldn’t say his trainer is particularly known for getting one ready first time up
This leaves me with the two suggestions for the race given current conditions and odds:
PERSIAN SNOW. Has shown enough good form on the course without winning here and softening ground should suit more than those around him on his reappearance run. Seems a sound jumper and with the stable having had several close shots at this race in past he looks the each way bet of the race for me at around 16/1 (note ¼ odds 12345 is available in some places)

EASTLAKE. The jockey booking of Jason Maguire was a major plus for me here with a certain Mr McCoy not available through injury. There is still a slight question mark about the trip but he jumps well and likes a good pace to run off – and has winning course form. There is just a chance that he could even improve for the extra trip as his brother has done.

Recommendations:
1pt ew Persian Snow 16/1 (Paddy Power/ Betfair Sportsbook both paying 1st 5)
0.5pts ew Eastlake 25/1 generally available

Good luck all
Comments welcome as always

Paul