We are reaching the halfway point of the Festival now

The wintry weather forecast came to fruition on Wednesday morning with some snow and sleet early on. This was mixed with sunshine to then help dry it out.

Forecast for remainder of week seems to be dry but with a chance of overnight frosts. It seems unlikely the ground will get softer this week and it may get closer to Good ground. It’s possible that some watering may be done if it does dry out too much

Onto Day 3 action:

Thursday’s card can be found here https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/11/cheltenham/2025-03-13

1.20 Mares Novices Hurdle.

This was a cracking high quality race this year with last year’s winner Golden Ace now a Champion Hurdle winner.

This year the quality seems to have dipped plenty – but that gives us a much bigger field instead.

I doubt anything will be going on to be Champion Hurdle quality in the future.

It’s a race that has produced shocks before when there have been big fields so I’m not going into it with maximum confidence but there are two very useful types from the flat that would be at the top of my shortlist.

If there is a strong pace, it should suit the claims of Sixandahalf. She is a progressive mare from the Gavin Cromwell yard (whose runners have been performing largely well at the meet so far). Stamina would seem to be her forte given her third place in the Irish Cesarewitch.

I just wonder over this two mile trip and the prospect of drying ground that Galileo Dame may have a bit too much zip for her. Joseph O’Brien has already had one 4 year old winner on Tuesday and this one has better form than that during her flat career. She is going the right way over hurdles too and gets a very handy ten pound allowance from the rest of the field.

Aurora Vega is a daughter of Cheltenham legend Quevega, but although she has the highest official mark here of 141, I really can’t see what she has done to merit that.

Diva Luna, was very good in bumpers this year. She disappointed at Sandown in the New Year but the trainer reports she is back to her best now. If so she could be a big player but I wonder if a longer trip would suit.

Jubilee Alpha has strong form this year bit I can’t help but think she needs softer ground

Selection; Galileo Dame is most appealing here to me but the 6/1 that was available last night has all gone now after her trainer got an early winner. 9/2 is the best price right now so I fear the value may have disappeared

****

2.00 Jack Richards Novices Limited Hcap Chase

Another Joseph O’Brien plot is envisaged by the layers here with Nurburgring at the top of the market. On his hurdling form he would have a great chance but I have yet to see anything in his chase performances to suggest he is as good over the larger obstacles. I’d want a double figure price on him to get interested in any way.

The key race for me now came here in December:

Jango Baie has hardly done this form any harm by winning the Arkle but he was getting 8 pounds from Springwell Bay here, suggesting they are similar types. Caldwell Potter had a huge reputation before this and disappointed many but he is 5 pounds better off with Springwell Bay now.

*****

2.40 Pertemps Final Hcap Hurdle

Runners have to go through qualifying races to get here by finishing in the first 4. Much of that qualifying will have to been done on softer ground than this and this may cause some form turnarounds. It also means it’s harder to protect a mark as some exposure has to be seen beforehand.

I’ve already highlighted in previous post that Nicky Henderson has a mean profit/loss record in these sort of races.

He fields three here – Jeriko du Reponet, Doddiethegreat and Shanagh Bob

Jeriko Du Reponet has an obvious chance – he was fancied to be one of the top novices last year and before the wheels fell off in the Supreme Novices you would have imagined he was going to end up well above a 140 rated horse. A setback kept him off until February when he finished 2^nd. He was in a decent position but was knocked back by a mistake and being blocked by a rival up front which put him on the back foot. From then on I got the impression that qualifying rather than winning was at the forefront of Nico de Boinville’s mind. He duly did that and confirmed in my mind that he is better than his current mark of 135.

The downside is his price of around 5/1. That’s very short for such a competitive race.

Doddiethegreat appeared not to get up the hill here in a shorter race last year. Admittedly, the stable were in dire form then and he may have an excuse but I’m still not convinced of him on this track.

Shanagh Bob, on the other hand, has won here before and looks more of a stayer. He’s the one that I like most of the trio from an each way perspective with 6 places being offered. He is 4 pounds better off with Super Survivor who beat him at Huntingdon but this track and ground are likely to suit him better.

Back in 4^th in the same race, Zain Nights, is also one to be strongly considered. He will most definitely prefer the better ground here and has good previous course form

Whilst, I can’t ignore the chance of Jeriko Du Reponet I can make him a recommendation at such a low price. I can see him making a mockery of his mark but I much prefer to back bigger prices each way that provide better value

*****

3.20 Ryanair Chase

I’ve already covered this to some degree in my ‘early ante post selections’ blog and see no reason to move away from last year’s winner, Protektorat.

If Il Est Francais had proven form here I would be in fear of him – but he’s only used to racing on flat tracks and has been kept away from here thus far in his career. If he takes to the fences he will be the hare to catch and he’ll make this a test for all. I’d be a bit worried to watch his bold technique on the downhill fences here especially though.

Fact to File has been rerouted here from the Gold Cup and whilst he must have a chance he is too short a price for me.

Djelo beat Protektorat at right handed Huntingdon but my selection patently is better going left handed and reversed the form in no uncertain fashion next time back on left hand track (like here)

Jungle Boogie is a talented horse who deserves a mention but the fact he is so lightly raced for an 11 year old shows how fragile he is.

If you followed my ante post recommendation you are already having money running up from Tuesday on Protektorat after Haiti Couleurs win so would be unnecessary to give him as a recommendation again here. He remains the selection though at around 6/1. A bit of dig in the ground would be ideal but he has form on Good also.

*****

4.00 Stayers Hurdle

I put up Teahupoo to win this at a short enough price last year. He’s had the same light preparation he needs this year but I just don’t get the same positive vibes from the stable as there was 12 months ago.

Langer Dan seems to spring to life at this meeting every year and we can usually forget all the weak looking form he has had in his previous runs. It would be no shock to see him winning.

Home By The Lee, despite being 10, looks an improved horse this year but he has been here before and generally given the impression this course isn’t quite where he thrives. He is still respected.

Lucky Place is the up and comer but is unproven at 3 miles. If he improves again for the trip he enters the equation (close form twice in his career with Champion Hurdle winning Golden Ace). It’s too much of a guess for me though that the trip will suit.

If it did come up very soft, Nemean Lion would be a lively outsider. That’s unlikely to happen though and if ground dries out I think he will be a non-runner.

Selection: This isn’t a betting race for me but if I had to pick one it would be Langer Dan from a somewhat cynical view on his regular massive improvement at this meeting

****

4.40 Plate Hcap Chase

Another very competitive handicap where I’m sure offering 6 places for each way would have been the norm a year ago – but sadly only 5 places here. I’d rather have the old traditional ¼ odds 1234 I think than these supposedly ‘enhanced’ terms

At the top of the handicap, Conflated and Ginnys Destiny have back form that would make them still well in – but neither have been in the same form this year.

Venetia Williams used to be a trainer to really watch in this race and so both Gemirande and Demnat are worthy of respect, but I feel both may come up short

Three for my shortlist here:

Masaccio is 6 pounds better off for nearly 4 lengths with current favourite Jagwar from their last encounter– but I think he has good chances to reverse the form and is much the better value of the pair. Masaccio had to carry a 12 stone burden on softer ground that day and these conditions will suit better. The addition of first time cheekpieces is also noteworthy.

Fugitif has loads of past course form and still remains on a competitive mark of 149. His last run was over a trip that is to far for him and is easily discounted. He has won races of a similar level off higher marks here and is 8 pounds better off with Gemirande from their running here in December. He is also well in on previous course form with Il Ridoto. Ideally, he’d like a bit of cut in the ground but even on good ground he has shown he can be competitive.

Finally, Personal Ambition, also carries first time cheekpieces and was very unlucky not to win at Ascot earlier in the season but for a last fence mistake that nearly took Ben Jones out of the saddle. Soft ground last time was against him and his record on better ground suggests his mark of 137 is very workable.

Whilst he has no previous course form, a Kelso win over Jango Baie (what has that done since!) shows a track with an uphill finish will hold no fears.

I put up Shakeumupharry for the same stable when he won this race last year with Ben Jones on board. That one hasn’t been in the same form this year though and it’s noteworthy that stable jockey Ben is on Personal Ambition this time round.

I’ll be covering myself with all three here

****

5.20 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup

The first race this year that is for amateur riders only. There is always a wide gulf between the quality of riders in this and more inexperienced ones can often go too fast too early and pay fo rit late on

A JP McManus horse was heavily backed in this last year and dotted up after being thrown in with a weight that was ultimately far too lenient (he‘s now favourite for the Grand National and has a live each way chance in the Gold Cup)

We have another who looks to be plotted up from the same owner now In Johnnywho. Four runs over chases were required for him to qualify and get a mark. He did this whilst looking that he was being held back on more than one occasion.

 The handicapper wasn’t totally fooled but still dropped him down from 144 to 140. The likelihood remains that he is better and he has the services of probably the best amateur jockey in the race.

I have to give a mention to locally trained Manofthepeople at a very big price who may get the decent ground he needs. On his winning form here in April I would give him a chance. However, he ran so badly at his last course visit that I can’t really forget that enough to recommend him. He’d perhaps be a very speculative small ew punt

Selection is Johnnywho but his price is too low for me to make a recommendation on him

Thanks for reading once again

Paul