With only a couple of weeks ago – and some time on my hands – an early post on the blog this year. With weights due to be published today for the handicap races, I’ve been looking how the top trainers have performed in them over the past 5 festivals.

There are some definite winners and losers highlighted in the tables below. While its always easier to see how your money would go profit/loss wise to a one unit stake, I was also interested in each way performance here.

While the standard each way terms of 1/4 1234 for handicaps of 16 or more runners seem rare to find these days, I’ve applied the enhanced terms of 1/5 123456 which should be quite commonly offered this year.

This covers the 4 handicap chases and 5 handicap hurdles run at the meeting (and also the two runnings of the now defunct novices chase handicap from 2019 and 2020)

Hcap Chases: Ultima, Grand Annual, Plate, Kim Muir

H’cap Hurdles: Boodles, Coral Cup, Pertemps Final, County Hurdle, M Pipe

Findings below are using the recorded SP (it taking an early price and getting Best Odds Guaranteed this could give a higher figure still):

This covers the trainers with most runners in each sphere over the last 5 years. There will be other trainers with a good profit figure but with less overall runners that is largely due to one horse (e.g Corach Rambler twice a winner for Lucinda Russell in hcap chases would skew figures dramatically)

We can see who is doing well – and who can be expensive to follow

GORDON ELLIOTT (also includes Denise Foster for the year she ‘stepped in to cover’ in 2021

Given how many runners he throws in, it’s surprising to see how well you would have come out by backing all of his horses each way blindly – both in hurdles and chases! He is running near to 4 horses in each handicap hurdle – way above all other trainers. You don’t need to be focusing on his perceived number one runner either. Commander of Fleet won the 2022 Coral Cup as a 50/1 outsider ahead of 6 other stablemates including a 9/2 favourite. Last year, Jazzy Matty winning at 18/1 in Boodles and a 125/1 4th place from Gevrey in the Plate were principal each way contributors to coffers.

WILLIE MULLINS

The Mullins team will be dominant again in non handicaps but they are obviously less bothered when it comes to handicaps and come with a financial health warning. They may well be priced too short as well given his perceived dominance so they when they do occasionally come in you won’t be profiting too much. (E.g State Man went off a very low 11/4 fav when winning the 2022 County Hurdle

PAUL NICHOLLS

Once a trainer to be feared in handicaps, the wheel have well and truly fallen off in recent year. Nicholls hasn’t had a handicap win since Le Prezien in 2018 and we have to go back to 2016 to find some consistent strength in these figures. This suggests his runners may well be too exposed to the handicapper by the time they come here. This could well be explained by changes of staff who were more wise to the planning for such races (see the figures of his once assistant Dan Skelton below). Nicholls still must be feared in graded races, but for now he seems one to avoid in handicaps

NICKY HENDERSON

Some interesting figures here. You wouldn’t be in profit by backing him win only but he’s had a much higher proportion of places than others and consistently been profitable on the each way side (nearly half of all his hurdlers finishing in to 6). The evergreen Mill Green has been a prime contributor in last 4 seasons (3rd, 3rd, 6th and 7th at 22/1,33/1, 40/1 and 66/1). Whilst certainly not appearing thrown in he has generally run his best race of the season here and although now 12 he’s still one to remember in this year’s Pertemps when extra places are added. What we do have to bear in mind here though is stable form. It’s dire right now – and highlighted by stable star Constitution Hill failing to shine in a gallop today. Some checking will be required in 10 days time to see if there is some light again in that tunnel!

DAN SKELTON

Skelton has always been known for being able to target a handicap and it’s in hurdles where he performs best. We can break that down even more and say the County Hurdle is most definitely a speciality. Faivoir 33/1 and Chtibello 12/1 have both won in last 5 years in that race – go back a bit further and we can add Mohayyed 33/1 and Superb Story 8/1

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

De Bromhead seems to be a bit less selective in his runners in recent years – maybe he is also concentrating more on graded races. He still is showing a profit in chases though with Maskada’s win in 2023 ‘s Grand Annual at 22/1 keeping his figures high. Hurdles profit/loss is less inspiring. (Also a good chance here that the popularity of any runners ridden by Rachel Blackmore may shorten prices)

VENETIA WILLIAMS

The trainer to keep on side in the Plate in times past (33/1 and 50/1 winners in there), Venetia did suffer a bit of a drought until a 40/1 win and 66/1 place in the 2022 Kim Muir served to remind us she shouldnt be forgotten quite yet. Traditionally she’s one to fear a bit more when the going is soft. Hurdles would be much less her thing

JOE TIZZARD (following on from father Colin)

Again getting the feeling here that his runners have had their marks exposed too much by the time this meeting arrives

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Hopefully some food for thought here, in particular to the each way angle on Cheltenham handicaps

For a wide variety of other stats, there is no point me writing them up when the excellent http://www.gaultstats.com has already got them in bucketloads (if using dont forget to donate to the cause that prompted all the work that has one into it)

Blog will be back in just under 2 weeks with some race analysis again this year – Cheltenham Festival runs from 12-15 March

Until then, thanks for reading,

Paul