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Monthly Archives: February 2025

Cheltenham 2025 – some early selections

22 Feb

Cheltenham 2025 – Early selections

An extra post here with a small number of selections I feel may be worth including in ante post multiples.

I’m suggesting these now as think the odds may be changing in the not too distant future as running plans become more apparent. The annual blitz of Cheltenham Preview Evenings will soon be starting as well and we’ll be besieged with information (much of it replicated from the same sources) from those

If I were at such a Preview Night I’d be suggesting these!

The selections below are all recommended using firms that offer NRNB (money back if one of them is a non-runner) and most definitely with each way betting in mind. All three selections have good win chances in my opinion but I find it difficult to see any of them avoiding being placed right now. (If all three are placed it will give a fine return and any winners will simply be a bonus)

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Onto the selections:

Arkle Trophy – 11th March – L’eau Du Sud

(Generally available at 4/1 1/5 odds 123 – 9/2 in one place with NRNB)

I’m suggesting this one now whilst firms still offer 3 places as feel it is only a matter of time before it comes apparent that less than 8 may run and it becomes ¼ odds 12).

He’s the archetypal ‘filthy each way’ that firms won’t really be keen to lay as his win price is fine but applying 1/5th to get place odds of 4/5 gives far more than his true place chances.

L’eau du Sud was held in high regard by his stable from the outset of his career but it wasn’t until last season that he started to fulfil those expectations with two near misses in valuable handicaps.

The trainer rarely sends his hurdlers over chases if he doesn’t think they can progress further and this one has been razor sharp with his fencing. He is unbeaten in all 4 starts over the bigger obstacles this year including a win over this course. He is proven on all types of going (maybe slightly better on less testing ground which is often what we have here).

His latest win at Warwick wasn’t maybe as impressive as some would have hoped. That’s a tricky jumping course though and he had the race won down the back straight with superior fencing over Rubaud (winner since). Through either lack of a recent run or idling, the advantage dwindled close home.

I don’t expect him to be in front anything like so far out here.

The main danger is very obvious with odds on favourite Majborough from the Willie Mullins stable. Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner is also unbeaten this year and on form he fully deserves such a position, especially getting a handy allowance from the selection s he is a 5 year old.

The issue for me is Majborough’s jumping which has been a little ‘exuberant’. On the whole he’s looked good but there have been times where you might have been hiding behind the sofa whilst watching. He’s’got away without any mistakes so far but this is not a forgiving place if he puts in a wrong one.

Majborough will undoubtedly lead in this race, and at such a pace that he’ll test the others. If he puts in a blemish free round he will likely win but I’m not convinced he will and that will let in the selection, who I expect to be ridden to track him.

Of the others, Jango Baie is only here because of the withdrawal of his stablemate Sir Gino and he would no doubt prefer a stiffer test. I think he may struggler with the pace set .

Touch Me Not has been second to both Majborough and L’eau du Sud this season and no reason to suspect a form turnaround. He should again serve to keep the favourite’s jumping honest.

Only By Night’s form has come against mares and her last win just didn’t look good enough to be a threat here to me.

I’m struggling to find definite runners outside of these. Ballyburn likely goes to another race. Firefox, Jordans, Caldwell Potter and San Salvador all seem earmarked for handicaps at the meeting. Gidleigh Park missed his prep run at Kempton this weekend with a setback which must make his participation more unlikely.

I’m therefore thinking we may end up with only 5 or 6 runners here, which isn’t uncommon for this race

L’Eau du Sud is an absolute lock in for me on all each multiple bets and has to be included in the recommendation

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National Hunt Chase – 11th March – Haiti Couleurs

(currently 5/1 available in a couple of places, a minimum of 4/1 will be acceptable taking either 1/5 odds 12345 or ¼ odds 1234)

This ‘long distance’ novices chase is a handicap for the first time this year and it’s firmly been the plan for Haiti Couleurs since his win here in January. That was an impressive performance where he was jumping out of Sean Bowen’s hands and had the race wrapped up from a long way out. To only get raised 5 lbs by the handicapper for that effort was quite a result. Non handicaps were in the mind of his trainer, Rebecca Curtis, before then but the new mark made his aim very clear.

A warm up race over hurdles (so not to effect his chase mark) at Newbury recently was highly satisfactory. He jumped the hurdles like they were chases at times and still stayed on strongly at the finish.

He’s been a slow maturing type but seems to be thriving this year and I think he is better than the mark he’s been given. Trainer Rebecca Curtis is no stranger to wins at the Festival wins having had 5 of them in the past. Four of those were in non handicaps and she has compared this horse very favourably to them all

I’m suggesting him now as think there will be market changes on the 25th February when weights are revealed for the Irish challengers. I’m expecting Shannon Royale, Sa Majeste and Search for Glory to be above the 145 limit and to be non-qualifiers.

Current favourite Now Is The Hour (a tipping line pushed him down from 16/1 to current 7/2 in January) comes from the feared Gavin Cromwell stable. Considering we don’t know this one’s mark yet and he also has the Kim Muir as a possible target, he’s an awful value price for me. He has one huge stand out piece of form over hurdles – in soft ground at Haydock over 3 miles. That track can produce some very specialist form in deep ground – and it’s a world away from the demands of Cheltenham. I’d want to be seeing him get an attractive mark next week and to have soft ground to be a consideration.

Transmission chased home Haiti Couleurs here in December but may also be heading to the Kim Muir (where he could be reunited with Patrick Mullins). Midnight Our Fred is another with a more likely alternative target and Will Do had a hard race earlier this week that might well leave a mark on him here.

In short, I think we could be losing quite a few others who are prominent in the betting here soon and Haiti Couleurs can only shorten

*****

Ryanair Chase – 13th March – Protektorat

(currently 7/1 best price available in two places, 6/1  more widely available and acceptable with each way terms of 1/5 odds 123 NRNB)

I’m back to the Dan Skelton team here with a horse who will be attempting to win the same race he won last year.

He’s shown no sign of going backwards this year and his trainer has clearly been working back from this target. His final prep at Windsor was his most impressive performance this season by far (easily beating Djelo) and confirmed he is at his best on left handed tracks (his previous run at Huntingdon behind Djelo being on a right handed one).

We again have plenty of rivals quoted here against him who are far from certain runners and have alternative engagements.

The selection had been aimed for the longer distance Gold Cup earlier in his career only to come up a little short over the extra distance. He finally seemed to find his metier in this race last year

Fact to File is the favourite and this would seem to be preferred to the Gold Cup so he can avoid Galopin Des Champs. He is the biggest danger here but at no more than 7/4 his price is far less attractive to me. The shorter trip may help but this race doesn’t appear to be the target that the stable were aiming for early in the season

Il Est Francais may be using this race (or the Champion Chase) to burst his Cheltenham cherry. His Kempton form has been impressive but that course is about as different to Cheltenham as you can get. A left handed, undulating track like Cheltenham will be something totally new to him.

Banbridge is almost certainly Gold Cup bound. Spillanes Tower will probably end up here but has a preference for soft ground and has zero experience at the course. Gaelic Warrior may be Champion Chase bound – but has been disappointing this season. Energumene would be a very unlikely runner here and El Fabiolo has some serious jumping issues to over come now if he turns up here.

I find it hard to envisage Protektorat being out of the frame here as well as having a solid chance to retain his title.

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So my three early suggestions are:

L’Eau Du Sud 4/1 or better – Arkle 1/5 odds 123

Haiti Couleurs 4/1 or better – National Hunt Chase ¼ odds 1234 or 1/5 odds 12345

Protektorat 6/1 or better – Ryanair Chase 1/5 odds 123

Taking NRNB odds on all

I’d be inclined to cover these three in each way doubles and an each way treble (an each way Trixie if all stakes the same)

For a level 1 unit stake that would mean 8 units staked

(Taking current odds at Bet 365 as an example (9/2, 5/1, 6/1 respectively) this would give a minimum return of 3.8 units if only two were placed. If all three are placed the return would be 20.74 units. If two were to win as well then all the better!)

Thanks for reading and good luck with whatever you back

Paul

 
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Posted by on February 22, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

Cheltenham 2025 – Trainer records in handicaps

20 Feb

Cheltenham Festival 2025 – Top trainers in handicaps update

With the publication of entries for this year’s handicaps earlier this week, I thought it an appropriate time to dust off the blog in readiness for the forthcoming Festival (March 11-14). With all that is going on elsewhere in the world, it’s a blessed distraction right now!

I did a post last year highlighting the record of top trainers in the handicaps and have updated the stats for that here with a few comments added.

Weights for these handicaps will be released on Feb 25th and if for those not already qualified they have to do that by Feb 23rd.

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What’s changed this year?

Firstly we have 3 more handicaps than we did last year – and they are all chases:

NH Chase.

This used to be a non-handicap but as field sizes have dwindled in recent years it becomes a handicap and is no longer for amateur riders. Three runs over fences are required to qualify and also there is a limit of a mark of 145. Several Irish runners currently quoted are likely to fall foul of being over 145 I suspect next week. I would be highly wary of backing Shannon Royale (got handed a 148 mark in Jan on a speculative Warwick entry), Sa Majeste and Search For Glory with this in mind.

Jack Richards Novice Hcap

The two and half miles novices’ championship event is no more and is now a handicap with 3 runs over fences again required. This race did exist in another name until 2020 but it then had an upper limit on handicap marks – that doesn’t exist now)

Cross Country Chase

For the first time in its history this is now a handicap. Whilst I’m no fan of this event the change can only make this event a bit more competitive. In common with all aged handicap chases at the meeting, a minimum of 4 runs over fences is required to qualify.

The number of hurdles races remain the same but qualification criteria has changed with 5 runs over hurdles now required in all aged handicaps (3 runs for the 4yo only Boodles hcap)

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Who did well last year?

The table below shows how the top trainers I covered in last year’s post did throughout the meeting.

As I did last year, its based on SP returns. Each way is using 1/5 odds 123456 which seems to be fairly standard these days. The ‘standard’ handicap place terms of ¼ odds 1234 aren’t easy to find these days even if you wanted them – I’d often still take that over 1/5 odds 12345 to be honest. While these ‘enhanced’ place terms may look attractive the difference between one quarter and one fifth odds can be quite high and I’d be wanting at least 6 places often to be tempted when it is one fifth.

Analysis of each trainer will follow later.

How does this change these trainers stats over 2019-2024 basis?

An update of the same trainers’ record over the recent 6 year period is here. I’ve separated into hurdles and chasers as there are some notable differences between individual trainer records in each sphere

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UPDATED TRAINER ANALYSIS

GORDON ELLIOTT

Elliott’s figures took a nosedive in handicaps last year. He still shows on overall profit on all his runners for each way bets over the 6 years – thanks to some big priced wins and places. He is still supplying more handicap runners than other trainers but it’s much harder to advertise his credentials as a trainer to follow in such races now. Perhaps, the handicapper has more of a grip on them. Perhaps, he is targetting the non handicaps more?

WILLIE MULLINS

As highlighted last year, the Mullins stable are not so impressive from a profit/loss perspective when it comes to handicaps (particularly in handicap chases). A 12/1 win for Absurde in last year’s County Hurdle helped redress his figures in hurdle handicaps.

He can throw unexposed horses in to such races with attractive marks but they are rarely missed by the layers and prices seldom attractive. The new rules on needing 5 hurdle runs to qualify will also make it harder to run such horses.

Mullins remains a trainer to have the utmost respect for in non handicaps but – aside from the County Hurdle ( he does have a decent record in that) and maybe the Martin Pipe hurdle – he obviously doesnt target the handicaps to the same degree.

NICKY HENDERSON

Nicky had a torrid time at last years festival with his stable under a huge cloud and many big names having to be kept at home. Consequently he had much fewer runners, and several of those that did run ran like they had an issue. It’s therefore quite noteworthy that he maintained and even increased his profit for each way supporters in the hurdles handicaps. Lucky Place and Bold Endeavour both finishing 4th at 25/1 and 50/1respectively achieved that. The former drifted to about double his early price – no doubt due o the stable problems.

Henderson remains one to keep on your side in handicap hurdles – and not necessarily with his perceived number 1 runner as historical results will testify.

DAN SKELTON

Dan had a great Festival in 2024, enhancing his P/L in both chase and hurdle handicaps. The layers have long been aware of him as a trainer who can target handicaps so you may not get the prices you would like but he is still capable proven capable of getting a horse into the right race with a workable mark. His hurdles stats are particularly impressive – something we can also relate to his time with the Nicholls stable several years back when he orchestrated some similar long term planning to great success. A trainer to always keep on your side.

PAUL NICHOLLS

This once powerhouse UK stable is a bit of a force in decline lately. His P/L in handicaps had been dire until last year when Monmiral’s win at 25/1 gave some resurgence. Afadil’s 5th place in the County Hurdle also boosted funds (no doubt help by him being gifted many lengths at the start by the rest of the field). It’s hard to imagine, a horse of his would have started 25/1for any handicap in past years (Monmiral had some decent back form) but it does show that the layers aren’t in fear of him and you may get some value on his runners. The fact he had only 5 handicap runners last year shows he has less to play with. I still find it hard to recommend Nicholls in handicaps but at least if you fancy one you might get a price now. The loss of key assistants like Skelton, Derham and Fry over the years has no doubt had an effect

HENRY DE BROMHEAD

Henry used to be quite selective when sending horses to this meeting and was one to be feared. There seem to be more running now – no doubt because of the big name owners he now has – but his P/L is going in the wrong direction. Ballyadam came close to winning the Coral Cup last year but he remains having no hurdle winners in the past 6 years from 24 contenders. Chasers have a better record and where the stable does retain a bit more of an edge. Another stable that may be concentrating more on non handicaps now? As mentioned last year, the presence of Rachel Blackmore on his horses can also serve to push the price down also

VENETIA WILLIAMS

Hurdles stats not included here as Venetia has always had more success in the chasing sphere. She didnt have any winners last year but Gemirande (5th 40/1) and Frero Banbou (6th 28/1 in the Plate – a race she has traditionally done well in) kept her in a good overall profit for each way support in chase handicaps. She is traditionally associated with soft ground performers and can shine in the winter months of deep ground. You’d be wise to write her off in handicap chases still – but even more so if the mud is flying.

JOE TIZZARD

Nothing in his figures to enhance his claims as a trainer to follow in handicaps here. My personal feeling is that his horses are often pitched too high too early and their marks are too exposed by the time they get here

Others of note:

BEN PAULING had an 8/1 winner (Shakeumupharry) and 28/1 second (Twig) in handicap chases last year. He’d be showing a good profit in chase handicaps over the years (largely due to Global Citizen’s 28/1 win in 2022). He wouldn’t have too many runners compared to those already listed but he does seem to be able to target his horses in the chasers for the day.

JOSEPH O’BRIEN may be more flat based but he is still noteworthy when targeting horses for hurdles handicaps. Last years Boodles winner Larkinthemornin didn’t seem nhat attractively handicapped but easily surpassed previous form to give him a 9/1 winner (Harsh was placed at 40/1 in same race for him). Joseph had been to this party before with Band of Outlaws so its a race to watch his runners closely in

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Hopefully a bit of food for though in these stats for anyone scrutinising the handicaps in the next few weeks.

My regular blog will be back Cheltenham week

Paul

 
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Posted by on February 20, 2025 in Uncategorized

 

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